Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Wednesday's Games To Watch

What a night it's going to be in Bubbleville...

Duke at Florida State

It all comes down to this for the much-debated 'Noles.

Texas at Texas A&M
Same goes for the Aggies. A win and they jump ahead of resume-challenged Colorado (who they beat head-to-head) for the Big XII's fourth bid.

Colorado at Kansas
People have been holding their noses when putting the Buffs in their brackets the last couple weeks. Here's one final chance to prove they belong.

Indiana at Purdue
Resurgent Hoosiers won't lose this one...right?

Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Vandy needs 4 wins in a row to have a chance to dance. It starts with this one.

Kentucky at Tennessee
Wildcats are the sixth team out of the SEC right now, and by far the most in danger to not go dancing. A split this week is all they need to feel safe, but they have a tough road left.

Miami (FL) at Maryland
'Canes are hanging onto the bubble by a thread. They can't afford another loss until pretty deep into the ACC tournament.

Virginia at North Carolina
Virginia is on life support too, needing to win their last two. By the end of the night, will all of the ACC bubbles be popped?

Wyoming at San Diego State
Aztecs look to clinch sole possession of the MWC regular season title.


struggling terps fan said...

quick question.....anyone feel free to answer, i know this is a huge long shot, but, the Terps have pulled off the improbable before, winning the ACC Tournament after finishing 7-9 in the conference two years ago........but, if the Terps were to win the last two, finish 8-8, they then will likely be a 6 seed, and they beat the 11 seed (Georgia Tech), then go on to beat the 3 seed, most likely B.C., would that give them a decent shot for an at large bid??...or do they have to make it to the ACC final to get an at large bid. Jay Bilas was comparing the Terps to WVU of last year saying everyone wrote them off because of a late season slide, they finished 8-8 in the conference, but then went on a tear in the Big East tourney and lost in the final.

Anonymous said...

I imagine if they can win 4 in a row (this includes a win over BC) then they would be on the bubble. Get to the ACC final and they should be in (because of the two quality wins they would get along the way). However, let's just see if they can beat the 'Canes before we get ahead of ourselves.

Anonymous said...

Maryland is done....deal with it. On the bright side the Comcast Center will be a great site for the first round of the NIT.

Douglas said...

I would say that with the struggles the 'Terps have had since McCray has left I would doubt that they get a spot in the tournament, unless they can win their next two and some in the ACC tourney. I just checked it out and think they are 4-7 without McCray. The selection committee looks at your record after a loss of a player to see how viable the team still is, and based on that record I would have to say Maryland is not even close right now. But who knows what can happen this year with the bubble teams all looking like crap.

Anonymous said...

FSU in..........yo duke, see how those free throws matter. That is the only way you beat temple.....

Duke s/b 2 seed.

Ky --------no way.

glad we have conference tourneys

MVC will be solved this weekend.

Anonymous said...

So FSU beat Duke. I still don't see how that just assures them of being in the field yet. One big win is all. They better take care of business at Miami this weekend and/or win a game or two in the ACC tourney. Their OOC schedule is horrible!!! 500 in the ACC doesn't guarantee anything with that horrid schedule. #316 with 6 250+ games and 3 300+ games at home! If the committee follows its trend of the last few years, FSU will be be punished for this.

Anonymous said...

But they beat Duke tonight.
And "beat" Duke at Cameron.
I'm thinking @Miami would make them a lock, but without Miami, I still think the case is very strong.

duke referees said...

The SEC has 6 locks after tonight. Texas A&M can clinch a bid with a win over Texas Tech. If they lose to Tech, they may need at least 1 conference tourney win to get in. Colorado has no business making the tournament. Nebraska continues their free fall

Bracketology 101 said...

Big win for FSU tonight. They still need to take care of business at Miami this weekend though. Texas A&M jumped ahead of Colorado tonight. They will likely meet in the Big 12 quarterfinals which will be huge.
Will be interesting to see what happens to SDSU now with the MWC regular season title under their belt should they lose in the tourney final.

Anonymous said...

oh come on, get out of here with this.....big deal they beat Duke, how many games has Duke lost in the conference??....1, and 2 overall, if you can beat Duke, and finish with at least a .500 record in still a tough conference, you deserve to get in....everyone complains about their OOC schedule, but they only lost one game out of the conference, and it was a close game at Florida, they haven't been a tourney team in years, which is why they don't have a good OOC schedule, but that shouldn't take away from how good this team really is....im sorry, but if you outplay the #1 team in the country twice in one season, finish above .500 in the ACC, you should be a lock.........there's no way in hell any team from the MVC would even come within 10 points of Duke and everyone knows that

Eric Z said...

Geez, I get sick of this "Florida St. vs Missouri Valley" talk that's on here all the time.

The reality is that there is room for Florida St and 5 MVC teams.

For those big conference fans - who in the hell is going to replace one of the MVC teams?

A 6th ACC team? Who? How can you make that argument?
Seton Hall? The team that just lost to DePaul and St Johns recently?
Colorado? Please.
A 7th SEC team?

The reality is that the bubble is so weak this year that there is room for all these teams. I have Florida St, Texas AM and Indiana all in - and there is still room for 5 MVC teams.

(and the Florida St fans should worry about that #313 Non-conference schedule. The committee has punished teams in recent years for a weak non-conference slate. And please - no excuses for this because "we're not a tournament team". When is the last time Temple made the NCAAs?)

SetonHallPirate said...

Eric-Other than us being consistent, I would put absolutely nothing past my Pirates, with the possible exception of us coming within 40 of whoever happens to be ranked #1 in the country at the time...shoot, half of me expects to beat Pitt tommorrow and then lose to Rutgers in the first round of the Big East Tournament...even if Rutgers hasn't beaten us outside of the Louis Brown Athletic Center in the Orr/Waters era.

Pikachu732001 said...

To the person drinking the Florida State is better than any MVC bubble team koolaid, please stop. Florida State's OOC schedule was weak:

@ Jacksonville-Last place in the A-Sun
vs. Alcorn State-Middling team in a bad SWAC
@ Florida-Yes they're ranked, but they're sliding to mediocrity
vs. Purdue-Last in the Big Ten
vs. UL-Monroe
vs. Texas Southern-see Alcorn State
vs. Bowling Green in Mobile-The ONLY OOC game the Noles played all year outside of Florida
vs. Stetson-Streaking in the A-Sun but won't go far in their conference tourney
vs. Campbell-see Stetson
vs. Nebraska in Sunrise,FL-Best win OOC, but Huskers won't make the dance
vs. UMass-Middling A-10 team

The win over Duke is nice but it's their only one against an RPI top 50 team.

Simply put, the Noles need to win at Miami and make it to the ACC semis in order to ensure their place in the tourney.

And as for the MVC prospects, 4 bids are most likely, 5 is a 50/50 shot, 6 is a stretch.

Pradamaster said...

"they haven't been a tourney team in years, which is why they don't have a good OOC schedule"

Wait...so when a team from a mid-major conference like Bucknell or George Washington or any Missouri Valley team plays a cupcake non-conference schedule, it's their fault that they aren't playing anybody, but when Florida State does it, it's not their fault? I think you need a lesson in the politics of college basketball scheduling.

If you had asked any power conference team with tournament aspirations before the season who they would rather play on a neutral court in their out-of-conference season, Florida State or teams like Southern Illinois, Bradley, Northern Iowa, or even GW and Western Kentucky, the answer would easily be Florida State. There is no benefit for a power-conference school to playing a top mid-major program. If they win, then it's as if they beat an inferior school, because they aren't in a power conference. You hardly hear about how Colorado beat UNC-Wilmington, for example, because, looking at it broadly, Colorado, a Big 12 team, should win that game. But if a major program loses to one of these top mid-majors, it's a bad loss and it hurts their resume in the eyes of the selection committee. Michigan State, for example, scheduled a game at Hawaii early in the season, an almost abnormal and inexplicable thing to do for a major conference team, and after they lost that game, Michigan State tarnished their overall profile because, well, they lost to Hawaii, a WAC team that they, a Big 10 team, should beat.

Since none of the top power conference teams want to play top mid-majors, how are mid-majors supposed to get their out-of-conference strength of schedule up to par? Most of the top teams they need to play to get their OOC strength of schedule where it needs to be refuses to play them. Therefore, the mid-major teams have an incredible disadvantage when it comes to scheduling, and have to scrap and claw and do so much more research into beating the syetem than any power conference team does, including Florida State.

Now, let's switch gears to FSU and the power conference perspective. Power conferences teams usually schedule two types of games. The first are guarantee games, which is when they pay a crappy team like Alcorn State to come play in their gym. Each team gets more money this way. Florida State gets to sell tickets for another home game, and Alcorn State gets more money than they normally would if they had another home game. The second type are games against each other to raise their OOC resume, and this is where the program comes in. Power conferences have a huge advantage over mid-majors in that they get to play games against top competition no matter what their OOC schedule is. Florida State, therefore, scheduled many cupcakes to fulfill the financial needs of the program, becuase they figured that they played in the ACC, and would get enough tough games to improve their overall power numbers. This is why you see Gonzaga and Memphis, two big programs in bad conferences, line up so many big-time programs on their schedule, because they don't usually have the luxury of playing tough games in-conference.

However, Florida State erred this year because they didn't expect the Missouri Valley to be along the same level of the ACC this season. The Missouri Valley got two huge OOC wins from Northern Iowa to improve their overall power numbers, which helped improve their conference RPI and the overall quality of play. This type of thing happens in power conference, because bubble teams like Florida State rely on the Dukes of the conference getting quality wins against Texas and other big programs to improve their overall RPI. Therefore, the Missouri Valley beat power conferences like the ACC at their own system, and have just as much of a right to get 5 teams in the tournament as the ACC does.

It's much easier for Florida State, therefore, to schedule hard teams than it is for any Valley team, even if they have been to the NCAA Tournament. If anything, it becomes harder for a mid-major team that has a period of success, because even fewer power conference teams want to play them. Thus, your claim that it's not FSU's fault that they have an easy schedule because they "haven't been a tournament team," is ridiculous.

"there's no way in hell any team from the MVC would even come within 10 points of Duke and everyone knows that"

This is your opinion, there is no way you can prove this right now. No MVC team has even played Duke this season. Stop making this claim over and over again.

Anonymous said...

The thing you guys aren't realizing is that FSU blew out all of these OOC teams with the exception of Florida who is always tough in their place. Purdue was scheduled for us and nobody had any idea how bad they would be, Nebraska was supposed to be better than they have been, etc. etc. Take out 3 of our wins vs. the 300+ teams and we move up 15 spots in the RPI, maybe more.

On the other hand Southern Illinois has losses to ALASKA-ANCHORAGE and EVANSVILLE! Are you really saying that they should be in? Or how about Creighton, a supposed lock for the MVC who has lost to 2 RPI 190+ teams. Give me a break. The only MVC teams who deserve bids right now are Wichita State and Missouri State. All of the rest need to make something happen in the conference tournament.

Bracketology 101 said...

Bottom line...FSU wins at Miami and their first game in the ACC tourney against Wake, Virginia Tech or whoever it ends up being they are a lock. With the games teams in big conferences have left everything will likely play itself out by Selection Sunday. The MWC, MVC, C-USA, and Colonial conferences will likely have 5 or 6 teams battling over 3 spots come Selection Sunday and that's where the committee will have to make tough decisions.

James G said...

Anonymous -
It's funny you defend Florida State by pointing to Nebraska and then impugn Creighton. As long as we're talking comparative scores, Creighton beat Nebraska 70-44, while FSU only beat Nebraska 74-60. Creighton does have the 2 bad losses, but also a 2 point over Wichita State and a 22 point over Missouri State, two teams which you say should be in. Most impressive, I think, is their 20 point win at George Mason. Also I think FSU's loss at Virginia Tech is a pretty bad loss.

Southern Illinois's loss to Alaska-Anchorage is definitely a downer, and that's one reason I think they should be ranked 6th among Valley teams right now, including Bradley. Their RPI is already in the dangerous range (42) and that loss doesn't even count in that, although it does in the secret bonus/penalty.

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