Friday, February 24, 2006

Bracketology 101's Top 10 Games That Can Turn Bubble Teams Into Tourney Teams

This week's Top 10 ranks the biggest games left this season for teams currently on or around the bubble. Over the next two weeks, these bubble teams have chances to pick up a marquee win in these games and solidify their invitation to the dance. As always, we welcome your comments, and we invite our readers to post their own lists. Enjoy...

Top 10 Games That Can Turn Bubble Teams Into Tourney Teams
Games were ranked on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 scale by the three voters.

1. Duke at Florida State 29
2. Nevada at Utah State 25
3. Memphis at UAB 21
3 (tie). Colorado at Kansas 21
5. Houston at Memphis 12
6. West Virginia at Cincinnati 10
6 (tie). Arkansas at Tennessee 10
8. Virginia at North Carolina 8
9. Villanova at Syracuse 7
10. Cincinnati at Seton Hall 6
10 (tie). Charlotte at George Washington 6

Also receiving votes: Texas A&M at Texas 5, Michigan State at Indiana 3, UCLA at Stanford 1, UCLA at Cal 1


Tony Stieb said...

Stanford needs much more than 1 win over UCLA to make tourney. They have lost 4 of 5 and have a bad 13-11 record.

pokerplayr said...

I am utterly amazed at the perception Utah State is a legitimate bubble team. The Aggies have only one win vs. the top 50 RPI teams and 5 losses to teams outside the top 100 RPI. In addition, the Aggies are only 9-4 (in second place) in the WAC and sport a non SOS ranking of 91 and an overall SOS of 121. The only realistic chance the Aggies have to make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the WAC Tournament. Even a win against Nevada would not be enough to push the Aggies in. The ONLY WAC team with a chance of earning an at-large bid is Nevada and that is based mostly on a solid non-conference schedule (that included 4 road wins, including a win at Kansas). The Aggies played just one game against the top 100 RPI, defeating BYU at home. While NCAA bids are never made solely on RPI, they are made in conjunction with several other important factors, few of which the Aggies can claim. You deserve credit for not placing the Aggies in the tournament, unlike several other online predictions. Yet to imply they would make the dance based on a win against Nevada is sadly disappointing.

Anonymous said...

i see five games that would take a team off the bubble in that group - Duke-FSU, Memphis-UAB, WVU-Cincy ARK-TENN, and Nova-Cuse.

As for the rest:
#2: Utah State has no chance at an at large, as prior post noted.

#3: Colorado is on the bubble, but it is my opinion that they need to win out in conference (MIZZ, @KAN, ISU) to get off the bubble. Beating Kansas and dropping one of those other games probably even makes their situation worse, rather than better.

#5: In my opinion, Houston needs that Memphis game just to COUNTER the two sub 150 losses they had in conference (especially that UGLY loss to UCF at HOME), and just to even get on the bubble, never mind be in the tourney. I think the committee sees what I see with Houston - that they are more like a team that has struggled to beat teams like East Carolina and Southern Miss, than a team that can pull off an upset of LSU or Arizona.

#8: Virginia needs a lot more than beating UNC to get in the tourney at this point. Not only do they suffer from a season sweeping from FSU, but they also have only two wins in the top 50, no road wins of any merit, a loss to Fordham at home, and no quality wins out of conference. Virginia's profile (while still better than that of Maryland or Miami), is still pretty weak. They need to win two of three and probably a game in the ACC tourney to have a legit claim to an at large.

#10(a): I don't agree that Cincy-Hall is a game that will turn either into tournament teams. Both need to use it to build their resumes, but both teams could (and in my opinion, will) get in with a loss here.

#10(b): Charlotte has zero chance for an at large. They have an non con RPI of 167 (!), zero qualty wins (sorry, St. Joes and Temple don't count as quality wins), and FIVE sub-100 losses on their resume. Frankly, nothing short of winning the A10 tournament will get this team anywhere NEAR the tourney.

sorry for the lengthy post, just had to get some thoughts out there.

duke referees said...

Florida State will be the 5th ACC team. Virginia will lose to Clemson & NC, then beat Maryland. Maryland will lose to NC & Virginia, they will beat Miami. Colorado should have to win all 3 remaining to get at large. If they win the other 2 but lose to Kansas, the Buffs don't deserve a bid. Just look at their resume, Colorado has been beaten badly by mediocre teams Iowa State, Kansas State, Nebraska.

Anonymous said...

Stanford has a very poor profile. They have 4 100 plus RPI losses. Their only top 50 win is over Stanford. Thats the game where Hernandez made 3 Free Throws to force OT. the Cardinal will be hosting a 1st round NIT game

Anonymous said...

*** Stanfords only top 50 win is over Washington

Natty544 said...

What about UAB, they have fallen recently but are they really a bubble team so soon?

Natty544 said...

sorry i ment UCLA

andrew said...

Arkansas punched their ticket with 3 straight great wins. As expected, Clemson defeated Virginia. Virginia falls to 14-11 on the year.

duke referees said...

still on the UVA bandwagon? they are suffering a smack down at Little John!!!

Anonymous said...

Arkansas placed itself in the tourney with three big wins. They have very winnable games vs Miss ST and Georgia to close the season with 5 straight and 9 of last 11. I think the team on the bubble now is Kentucky

Anonymous said...

you pundits are all major crazy. you can,t predict till the games are played and upsets are bound to happen. say plays air force in mwc and wins,2 could go. say utep wins c.usa 3 could go. say the big east goes into total madness and n.d. meets lou. in the champ game or vandy wins the sec. perhaps gw does not win the a 10. just say madness takes over. then what?

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