Here is Chris and Craig's latest field:
Last Four In
Missouri State, UAB, Arkansas, Hofstra
Last Four Out
Florida State, Cincinnati, Stanford, Vanderbilt
In This Week
Missouri State, Arkansas, Hofstra, Akron, Georgia Southern, Pacific
Out This Week
Stanford, Miami (FL), Iowa State, Kent State, Davidson, UC-Irvine
Conference Breakdown
(Automatic bids in multiple-bid conferences are the first teams listed.)
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), SEC (6), ACC (5), MVC (5), Big 12 (4), PAC-10 (4), C-USA (2), Colonial (2)
America East - Albany
ACC - Duke, North Carolina State, Boston College, North Carolina, Maryland
Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb
A-10 - George Washington
Big East - UConn, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, Syracuse
Big Sky - Northern Arizona
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Ohio State, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana
Big 12 - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado
Big West - Pacific
Colonial - George Mason, Hofstra
C-USA - Memphis, UAB
Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy - Penn
Metro Atlantic - Iona
MAC - Akron
MCC - IUPUI
MEAC - Delaware State
MVC - Northern Iowa, Creighton, Wichita State, Southern Illinois, Missouri State
MWC - San Diego State
Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley - Murray State
PAC-10 - UCLA, Washington, California, Arizona
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Tennessee, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas
Southern - Georgia Southern
Southland - Northwestern State
SWAC - Southern
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - Nevada
WCC - Gonzaga
The Seeds
The 1s
UConn, Duke, Memphis, Texas
The 2s
Villanova, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Ohio State
The 3s
Pittsburgh, Michigan State, Illinois, West Virginia
The 4s
George Washington, Iowa, Florida, UCLA
The 5s
Boston College, Georgetown, North Carolina State, North Carolina
The 6s
Kansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Washington
The 7s
Northern Iowa, Bucknell, Wisconsin, Creighton
The 8s
Michigan, Wichita State, California, Nevada
The 9s
Marquette, Southern Illinois, Arizona, Seton Hall
The 10s
Alabama, Kentucky, Colorado, Maryland
The 11s
Syracuse, UAB, George Mason, Missouri State
The 12s
Indiana, Arkansas, Hofstra, San Diego State
The 13s
Western Kentucky, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Iona, Akron
The 14s
Northwestern State, Winthrop, Northern Arizona, Pacific
The 15s
Penn, Albany, Murray State, Georgia Southern
The 16s
IUPUI, Delaware State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Lipscomb (Play-In Game), Southern (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
This Week's Bracket
Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.
Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
56 comments:
Colorado has no business in your bracket. Iowa State crushed them & the Clones are NIT bound. Miami at least has some quality wins. Florida State & Vanderbilt at least have some quality wins. Colorado should not be in the bracket. Basically you are rewarding the Buffs for playing a soft schedule & beating nobody worth note. Will you finally jerk them when Oklahoma beats them in Boulder?
Thank god you guys aren't really on the selection committee. It is asinine for a team with that awful of resume to get in. If Colorado was in a mid major conference, you wouldn't have them in. But since they are in the Big 12, you let their pathetic resume slide. very sad
We expect a lot of comments about Colorado this week, but here was our rationale for keeping them in this week's bracket. This week more than ever, we looked at each bubble team's remaining schedule, and figured out a best case scenario for them the rest of the way. In Colorado's case, we know all the negatives, and understand that their best win is UNC-Wilmington. That said, they are still 6-4 in the Big 12 and should be ableto win four of their six remaining games (Oklahoma, @Kansas State, @Nebraska, Missouri, @Kansas, and Iowa State). That would get them to 10-6, and while the Buffs were left out of the Dance in 2004 with a 10-6 conference mark, this year we think could be different. There aren't many quality at-large candidates this year, and Colorado would have a better conference record and RPI than most if not all of them at the end of the season.
Miami does indeed have better wins than Colorado, but already has 10 losses and with games at BC and at Duke this week, they have a good shot at being 14-12 and 6-7 in conference by Sunday. Their 82 RPI isn't very attractive either. Vanderbilt was one of our last four out this week after completing a season sweep of Kentucky. The Commodores' problem is similar to Miami's in that they have a tough road left and too much ground to make up. They are 4-6 in the SEC, and still have games with Florida, LSU, and Tennessee left. Even if they win one of those three at home, they still have to go on the road to Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi. If they go 1-2 at home the rest of the way, they would need to sweep their road games just to get to 8-8. That probably won't be enough to get a bid. If they can somehow get to 9-7, they would almist certainly have a better case than Colorado.
"colorado should be able to win four of six" wow. i think that's a stretch. only the missouri game looks like an "automatic"
rutgers "should be able to win four of five"...a better chance than colorado. would they then deserve a bid at 8-8? hell no. but they'd at least have wins over marquette and temple...better than anything the buffs have done.
How do you have more SEC teams than ACC teams.....if you only take 5 from the ACC, there's no way you can take 6 from the SEC. I know the ACC is having a rough year, but they're hands down better than the SEC. The only reason Kentucky is in there is because of their rep, which is ridiculous, if they make it this year, than MD should have made it last year, or else i think the comittee is very shady and play favortism.....i agree with MD being a 10 seed but i think they're better than all the 7's, 8's, 9's and 10's and will prove it by season end.....j.j. redick is not player of the year, the only thing he is, is shooter of the year, he hands down is the best shooter, but he plays awful defense, and the refs have bailed him out way too many times this year....how in the world does he lead the ACC in free throw attempts per game, that is a disgrace, and clearly shows the favortism he gets, he rarely takes it to the basket and he averages more free throw attempts than the top big men in the league, now come on, lets be realistic here.....if you watch game film he does these awful pump fakes than just leans into his opponents and forces contact when they are standing with their hands straight up, and they automatically call a foul.....he pushes off, and leans in more than anyone in the country, oh except for Paulus who pushes off every time he brings the ball up the court, and hand checks every time on defense.....we've gotta put a stop to these tick tack fouls called on Redick, its a disgrace to the game.....there's no way an outside shooter should be leading the conference in free throw attempts during a game, its just unrealistic, so almost a third of his points per game are freebies from the refs, but the pro duke media will never say a word about it, and act like it doesn't happen, and praise him till he dies, just like every other Duke player who goes on to have awful NBA careers with the exception of Elton Brand....coincidence??...i think not...............and as for Indiana, if they do not beat Penn State this week, I would take them out, because they will lose to Illinois
it is a complete joke that colorado is in the bracket. they have done NOTHING to earn an at large slot. you know damn well that if cu was a mid major you would snub them. it is very hypocritical to allow them in just because they are in a bcs conference. where are the buffaloes great wins at? please explain why you put such an undeserving team in your bracket?
Maryland has a bad resume itself. It wouldn't be a shock if the Terps missed the tourney this year also. The SEC deserves more teams than the ACC. Florida beat both Miami & FSU. The ACC is down big time this year. GW whipped Maryland, Michigan State beat BC, Illinois beat UNC, a very mediocre Louisville team beat Miami. Arizona ripped apart Virginia as Michigan did with Georgia Tech.
Maryland played a very soft non-conference schedule. Minnesota didn't have Vincent Grier when they played MD. MD will likely lose their remaining 4 road games. The Terps are lucky they only have to play Clemson once this year. ESPN may not like it, but the ACC is down this year.
* Michigan State pounded G Tech. Michigan blew out Miami
you're going a little overboard with these games.......GW did not whip MD, they beat them in a tight one.....MSU barely beat GT, GT had the ball down 2 at the end of the game, and the game was at Michigan State, not too impressive considering GT is at the bottom of the ACC, and they beat B.C. in a tight one at home, not that impressive either, what about MD beating Arkansas, forgot about that one, or N.C. State winning at Alabama, or the worst team in the conference Wake Forest winning against Wisconsin, yeah Virgina, Miami and UNC struggled early because they have all new players this year, took them a little while to gel, Illinois barely beat a brand new UNC team, not that impressive.....i think you forgot to mention that the ACC won the ACC/Big Ten challenge without Boston College, so you're little post was overexaggerated and backed up with no facts on these "whipped" comments.....as for MD, they've only had one blowout loss that was at Duke, other than that, they have been right there in every single loss.....and they always struggle in late January and early February and then turn it on....last year was a joke they didn't get into the tourney, they only had 9 losses and beat Duke twice who was a one seed, yeah so what Clemson shot lights out against and we couldn't beat them, it happens, there were some teams that had no big wins on their resume that got in over them, because they had a very weak schedule, if you sweep a one seed, you can play with anyone in the country and belong in the tourney....especially with only 9 losses
We need to start getting our facts straight here. Maryland was 16-12 last year when they didn't make the tourney and they lost their last 4 games.
In regards to the comment that you can't take 6 SEC and only 5 ACC once again we'll go with the old mantra that teams get bids not conferences. And right now the teams in the middle pack of the ACC (Maryland, FSU, Miami and Virginia) just keep beating up on each other and can't get a big win to put them over the hump. FSU just missed out on a bid this week and will have plenty of chances to prove themselves down the stretch (@NC St., Maryland, Duke).
You can go on all day about who beat who and this conference is better then that one because of this win or that win. The Big Ten and the Big East are the two best conferences this year. After that you have the SEC and ACC. The teams at the bottom of the ACC are better then the teams at the bottom of the Big East and the Big Ten (although the bottom teams in the Big 10 have played well lately). But the top of the ACC is not that strong (besides Duke) which is evident in the seeding.
As for Colorado we covered that in our last post and we have to put 65 teams in (even if sometimes we might not want to). It's hard to make a convincing argument that any of the teams we left out deserve a bid over Colorado. Their lack of quality wins is evident but everyone else's bad losses overshadow it.
Virginia is still on our bubble so long as they stay above .500 in conference. Their remaining schedule is tough and they have some bad losses which hurt them. If they can get to 9-7 in the ACC and beat either BC or UNC down the stretch (games left against Maryland and at FSU are huge too) they will be in the mix going into the ACC tourney. They definetly have a chance to play their way into the tournament if they can win down the stretch.
my bad i meant 9 losses outside of those three losses to Clemson, i mean i could undestand why they were left out, but the teams that made it in over them, MD was hands down better than, and everyone knew it, but 12 losses is pretty tough, it was just so hard for me to overlook the sweep of Duke, and a 2 point loss late in the season to UNC that came down to the wire, but enough of the horrible memories.....at least Gary has these kids out there laying everything on the line, i admit they're not the most talented, basically no real point guard, and they lose their best all around player for stupidity....you gotta give Gary and Caner Medley credit for giving everything to get back into the tourney, they've lost some tough ones the last two weeks, but i think they'll go on a nice run to end the season and hopefully can make a real nice run in the ACC tourney to get to like a 6 or 7 seed
Not true. Michigan State and BC played in New York at the Jimmy V Classic. Are you saying Clemson shot lights out all 3 times they played Maryland? WHo cares if MD beat Dook twice? They had several bad losses that overshadowed that. VIrginia Tech beat Maryland. the Terps got killed by Clemson in the 1st round of ACC tourney. even though it was held in D.C. Maryland played horrible down the stretch last year. They did not deserve a bid.
Chris & Craig are 100% wrong about Colorado. They do not belong in the bracket.
Maryland could miss the tournament again this year. UNC & Duke both soundly beat the Terps on their home court. MD also has a tough schedule down the stretch.
It may be "unfair," but the best seed the Colonials can hope for, even if they run the table, is a 3 seed. Their strength of schedule and RPI just does not stack up with the teams ahead of them in the bracket. It's hard to knock a team that might go through a season with one loss, but the A-10 is way down this year, which hurts GW's case quite a bit. The teams you mentioned all lost one bad game, but they have plenty of quality Top 25 and Top 50 wins to cancel that loss out. GW doesn't have that. It's not their fault - they can play the teams on their schedule, but unfortunately for them those teams are pretty poor. Just like Gonzaga for similar reasons was never rewarded with a really high seed when they started their NCAA run, neither will GW this year.
Think the 4 seed is a bit too high for GW. Who have they beaten that is gonna be in the field? Plus they embarrassed by NC St.
4 seed is about right for GW. They played a cream puff OOC schedule & play in a terrible conference. In they wins out & win A10 tourney they could move up to a 3. But I don't think they should be higher than a 4.
That is a stupid comparison. Pitt & Tennessee have solid wins under their belt. The Vols beat a great Texas team in Austin, Florida, UK, Vandy. Pitt beat West Virginia, Syracuse, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Marquette, & Cincy.
You also cannot ignore the fact that GW is ranked 37th in the RPI. Sorry but GW hasn't beaten enough good teams to earn a very high seed
virginia has a lot of work to do. they have 2 bad losses to teams outside the top 100. their only top 50 win is UNC. playing Longwood will hurt their RPI as Longwood is ranked outside the top 300. Also, none of their remaining 5 ACC games are easy. They will have trouble to win any of those games. i see uva in the NIT come March.
If Memphis runs the table, are they a lock for a 1 seed? I was just wondering if the weak CUSA would hurt their RPI too much
First time visiter. I really like this bracket and agree with most of the seeding. It was not so far off from the bracket I made for this week (not posted, sorry). My only question is, how do you determine conference champions. For example, you have Hofstra and George Mason both in the tournament despite the fact that George Mason has a 2 game lead on Hofstra and it would be difficult to argue that Hofstra has much of an at-large profile. Does that mean you believe Hofstra will win the CAA, and if so, why? Also, how do you determine conference champions? Do you use the Joe Lunardi method (pick the current conference leader), or do you project those too, or somewhere in between?
As for Colorado in the bracket, I agree, it's hard to find anyone who deserves it more. Between them and UNCW, they beat them, so their profile looks better. My guess is that these arguments will not matter come Selection Sunday because I feel like there will be lots of upsets this year in conference tournaments, thinning out the at-large pool. But I agree that it's hard to find anyone who deserves to make the tournament over Colorado, especially after fellow bubble teams like Utah State, Miami, Air Force, and Iowa State have slipped up recently.
Anyway, keep up the good work.
The question is not could Gonzaga, Tenn, etc go 20-1 with GW's schedule, but rather, could GW do as well as those schools have with a real schedule. Regardless of what any of us might think, GW's schedule has left all of us without very little idea of how good they really are. Could they have beaten UW, Pitt, Florida, etc as the other teams you have listed off have? We don't really know.
The bottom line with GW, and the reason that IMO they are not going to get any higher than a 5 seed, is they have 0.5 quality wins. (Maryland.) That's it. I don't care how many losses you have, the selection comittee has shown over and over it cares more about quality wins.
The GW fan has a bogus argument. The reason those other teams slip up once in a while is because they play tough game after tough game in their respective conferences. GW will be exposed as a fraud in March
Pradamaster,
We don't just plug in whoever is first in the conference as automatic bid for that conference. All our auto bids are the teams listed first on the conference lines above our seeding. We think it's stupid to just pick the first place teams in the conference and give them the auto bid because that isn't realistic (i.e. when La Tech was in first a few weeks ago in the WAC before they played Nevada or Utah State). In the next few weeks if we see a team that we think can run the table in their conference tourney and get the auto bid then we will put them in our field instead of just giving another at-large bid to an undeserving big conference team. That will help the bracket look more realistic as well since a few teams will be able to pull of upsets in their conference tourney and steal a bid. Although I don't think we'll see as much of that this year as in year's past. Gonzaga and Nevada are playing on their home courts in their conference tourney's, while nobody has proven that they can beat GW or Memphis yet. As for Hofstra we like their chances at getting an at-large bid because of their remaining schedule.
This blog is a complete joke.
No college basketball fan who takes the sport seriously would have Colorado in their bracket.
I like Wichita State to be a 4 or 5 seed. What are your thoughts on that and the quality of basketball in the MVC this year?
Why do Chris & Craig love Colorado so much?
Oklahoma 73
Colorado 66
If GW wins out they will be no lower then a 4 and most likely a 3.
Seton Hall won at NC State. GW got blistered at NC State. If GW is as good as you say they are, they will be beat the powehouses. As a 3 seed, GW will get to face a 2 seed such as Iowa, Texas, Tennessee, Pitt, or Florida. But IMO, GW will lose their second round game to a 6 seed such as LSU, Wisconsin, North Carolina, NC State, or Washington.
GW is not nearly as good as that fan claims. The tourney will prove this out. GW's win over Maryland keeps looking less great more every day. GW won't even make the sweet 16
Secret for you ~~~ either LaSalle or Temple puts dowm GW in tornament........where does that lave the seeded and who does it bunp??
LSU & Wisconsin are both in line for 6 seeds. And yes the Maryland win is not impressive. MD is an NIT team. Many teams have wins over NIT teams. WHy should GW get more credit for theirs? GW has a very blah resume. Their schedule sucks. I agree with the previous poster, it is highly likely another team such as Temple of Charlotte wins the A 10 tourney. GW fans have counted their chickens before the hatched. Why is that GW fan so scared of playing DUke?
GW struggled to beat a putrid Massachusetts team.
Ok let me get this right...Kentucky a #10 seed??? I can just tell ya that alot of the Big Blue faithful think that the only way the Cats will make to the field of 65 is win the SEC tournament!! I am a diehard Wildcat fan, but I would not even put them in the NCAA, but NIT. Get the true facts straight and look at other programs who deserve a shot.
nobody is talking about duke an gonzaga an they both have potential coplayers in reddick an morrison duke should be the overall 1 if they dont falter down the stretch because of uconn's lost
George Washington's win against Maryland was a good win, but it was against a team who's weakness (lack of PGS, ball handling) plays right into George Washington's strengths (pressure defense). George Washington plays a scrappy style that is successful against many team, but as the NC State game shows, they are not as successful against a disciplined team. If GW plays Wisconsin, I think they will struggle. If they play LSU, they will do a lot better. A lot depends, but I can't take GW seriously as a contender (and this is a guy from the DC area) because they cannot beat a disciplined club. We can talk all we want about bad losses, good wins, and the like, but we aren't looking at the teams. GW matches up extremely well with Maryland, and they don't against many other teams on a quasi-similar level like Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, NC State, etc. I would say GW loses in Round 2, depending on the draw
All you can talk about is G.W..What about The Air Force (Mens) Team..They deserve to be in field of 65...And UCLA at least a 3rd seed.
all that u guys are talking about is GW but theres a team in the MAC no one is showing any love for and that is KENT STATE! They have had plenty of big/key wins this year. Sure they started out sluggish with a loss to Delaware State but they are being overlooked. Watch for my team Kent state possibly being a dangerous threat come March.
I was happy to see that Colorado beat No.19 OU 84-75 in Boulder for that elusive "quality" win and the proof that they might just belong in the tournament. It couldn't have come at a better time for them with the win being nationally televised and two straight games on the road coming up. Despite all of the talk about CU not haveing any big wins thus far this season, that's not exactly true. Well, at least not by Colorado standards. The Buffs beat both Oklahoma State and Missouri on the road before these teams hit their downward spirals. The victory over Missori snapped an 8-game home winning streak for Mizzou, five-game overall, and the win at OSU was the Buffs' first since 1981.
It also should not be forgotten that just a week ago this CU team was in the top 25 at No. 25 in the coaches' poll. Sure, they dropped two straight at Iowa State and Texas A&M, but the loss to the Aggies could've easily gone the other way had some key free throws been made down the stretch. The Buffs have struggled from the line all season, shooting just over 60 percent, but had not lost a game because of this handicap. That finally happened against the Aggies and CU has since turned a corner, hitting 81 and 89 percent in its last two wins - the team's top two performances in the Big 12 this season.
With that said, this a better Colorado team than the one that was voted into the top 25 three weeks ago. That is, if they can keep hitting their free throws. They are also a more mature team after not handling the pressure or excitment of the ranking very well - the team's first since 1997. In an article published today, Richard Roby admits he and his team got a little "big-headed" after the ranking, but have since put things in perspective. We'll see if that's true after the OU win and the Buffs hit the road in a scenerio very similar to that faced after breaking into the polls. If CU can pull out the win this weekend against KSU, a team they beat 79-75 Jan. 28, it will have shown its composure and belong in the tournament.
My mistake, CU shot 86 percent from the line against OU.
Andrew keeps missing the point. Teams that play in a tough conference will lose a game or 2 they shouldn't because of the grind of playing good teams every game. In contrast, GW gets to play soft teams in the A 10. Kansas would destroy da Colonials if they played. Florida's big guys would beat Pops & LSU flunk out Regis. Is his GPA over 2.0 yet? Pitt and Georgetown would overwelm GW. Your not in the A-10 anymore Andrew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IMHO, George Washington should be seeded no higher than a 6. No offense to cute lil Andy, but do you pay any attention whatsoever to college basketball? KU is a very young team that keeps improving with every game. The baby Jayhawks were struggling early in the season. As a Hawk fan, I couldn't stop laughing when cute lil Andy said that George Washington would beat KU. I hope KU gets that chance.
no one outside of the who-cares conf. cares about GW. minnesota, even penn state would crush GW.GW can not even come close to hanging with the big boys of the big-10.GW is NIT material at best.
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