Monday, March 15, 2010

Bracketology 101's Final Bracket Stats

The Bracket Matrix has posted his final results matrix for all 83 brackets he monitors. He lists overall results based on the Paymon scoring system, which gives brackets three points for each correct team, two points for each exact seed, and one point for each team within one seed line.

Here are our final stats:

Teams correct: 63/65
Exact seeds: 31/65
Seeds within one of seed line: 54/65
*Paymon score: 305

For a complete breakdown of how every bracketologist did in predicting the field, click here.

All in all, we were very disappointed with our final Paymon score, which was down 10 points from last year and put us right in the middle of the pack after four straight years of having a top-five bracket. Missing Utah State, and getting 63 teams instead of 64, cost us six points on our final score and really hurt us in the end. A score of 311 (had we put the Aggies in) would have put us in the Top 10 score-wise.

The strangest part of this year's results was that most of the brackets done by the four or five year bracketology "veterans" (with the exception of Jerry Palm) were at or below the average Paymon score (299.8). Here's how we stacked up against some of the more seasoned experts:

Bracketville (who had the best bracket of the year): 322
March Madness All Season: 313
Jerry Palm (CollegeRPI and CBS): 312
Bracketology 101: 305
Andy Glockner (SI): 302
Joe Lunardi (ESPN): 300
David Mihm (Bracketography): 284

For the fifth straight year, we had a higher Paymon score than Lunardi and for the fifth straight year we outscored the Sports Illustrated bracket (which was done by Glockner the last two years).

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We'll be back later today with more bracket stats, our Final Four picks, and our complete downloadable brackets. We will also set up the annual Bracketology 101 Tournament Challenge group on ESPN.com.

In the meantime, feel free to post any bracket-questions in the comments section of this post. We'll check in periodically to answer as many of them as we can.

We'd also like to thank to the tens of thousands of people who visited the site over the couple of days (we destroyed our Selection Sunday hits record yesterday), as well as the hundreds of readers who posted comments and questions. We think that over the past few months, no site had better debates and discussions about all things bracket-related than we did at B101. The credit for that goes to our loyal readers, who are the most knowledgeable group of college basketball fans around. Thanks for all of your contributions to the site this year. You all deserve a huge chest bump.

Enjoy filling out your brackets...

30 comments:

Brycenle said...

Don't feel bad B101 about your score being lower this year, you didn't have a chance with the tournament selection committee completely ignoring the rules of seeding. West Virginia and Ohio State are #5 and 6 respectively in the S curve, which should have WVU playing Syracuse(should have been Duke) and Ohio State playing Duke. Instead because of the ass-kissing to CBS for their new billion dollar deal, they gave the top seeding to Duke! Officially they're 3rd but yet Kansas has to play OSU and Kentucky has to play West Virginia. Who does Duke get for their top 4? OH,that's right! Villanova,Baylor and Purdue! Why the hell are they even making Duke play at all? Why didn't they just give them a bye to the final four? The reason why this was done and we all know it, is because the selection committee knew that the Duke Blue Devils didn't have a snowball's chance of beating West Virginia or Ohio State face to face. I hate the politics and money involved in college sports, and I pray that someone files a lawsuit injunction against the NCAA to stop this "madness" from happening before Thursday, even though I know it will never happen!

Anonymous said...

cant wait to see your picks, im having more trouble this year filling out my bracket than ever. I am not confident in any team.

Mike said...

Can I tell you what I think your biggest weakness was this year? You pick teams based on merit instead of names.

I never thought for a second that WVU would get the top seed over Duke, and never thought for a second Miss. St. would get in over Florida.

Why? Not because Duke and Florida are demonstrably better, but because they have better names. The committee almost always gives Names benefit of the doubt in slightly debatable situations.

I wrote a column last year about "The Country Club Mentality of College Basketball," and you should consider keeping that phrase in mind next year.

And I agree with the most ridiculous issues: Temple as a 5, Notre Dame as a 6, Villanova as a 2, Florida as a 10 (I understand them making it, but they were really that safe?!), 3 BE teams in the same region... the selection committee is ridiculous.

Evan said...

I agree, don't feel bad about it B101 there are a few terrible calls the commitee made this year.

I know I am bias (I'm a Temple Owl) but how on earth can they be justified as a 5 seed. The school has a #8 RPI and was ranked all season. The losses the suffered (all 5 of them) weren't that bad and they had several big wins. On top of that they are on a huge winning streak against quality teams in a strong A-10, and just won the A-10 tourney by beating URI who has an RPI of 40 (highest RPI left out of the tourney) and then beat Richmond the next day (who is seeded highly and had beat Xavier the day before). To me it does not make sense and is not fair that the only game the committee watched this year was Temple vs Kansas.

Which brings to my next point, how on earth is Nova ranked as highly as they are. Here you have a team on the decline, they've lost something like 5 of there last 7. Bounced first round Big East tournament. I'll leave the head to head out of it (Temple beat Nova) and just stick to the numbers.

I'm not saying the A-10 is better than the Big East, far from it. I'm also not saying Temple should have been a 2 and Nova a 12. But come on the BCS conference Bias is really notable this year, most notably because it effects my school.

So in closing when Temple ends up getting dropped first round because the play Cornell (anyone spell conspiracy, the committee couldn't wait to line Dunphy up against his former assistant now coaching a great ivy league team) I can say it's a game we should've won, but not a game we should have been playing in the first place.

Anonymous said...

And I hate to add one more thing as I don't want to be that guy but something just occured to me.

So Dunphy and Cornell have alot of history. But looking at Temple Coaches of the past.

If John Chaney is in the building for a potential Temple vs Kentucky Sweet 16 game, Calipari should be scared. He gets boo'd by everyone but Chaney threatened bodily injury. Just a side note
you can see the video here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51-4sJTf7iQ

It's a clip I'm sure you'll see if the tournament goes this way

Coach said...

Did anybody see that someone on a Maryland message board had the info before it was released? Makes you wonder.

Coach said...

http://www.insidemdsports.com

/forums/showthread.php?t=30905

James G. said...

You guys were wrong about Virginia Tech the past month plus. The 10-6 record is not impressive when you consider that Va. Tech only had to play the 6 best ACC team 1 time and play the 5 non tournament teams twice. Add that to the Hokie's terrible OOC resume and they did not belong. Do you finally admit you were wrong about Virginia Tech? They, like Penn State last year, did NOT get rewarded for beating up on teams outside of the top 100.

Paymon said...

Coach - that's REALLY disturbing. Someone in Indianapolis leaked info.

Steve Cole said...

An article in the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning suggests that Fran Dunphy (Temple's coach)wasn't surprised at Temple's seeding because he expected the committee would try to match Temple and Cornell in the first round. Still, despite getting hosed, I think Temple's in good shape - if we can get past Cornell. Temple matches up fairly well against Wisconsin, and they play the sort of controlled game that's most likely to make a freshman-dominated team like Kentucky unravel. Then? Well, Duke's going to choke at some point, so why not against Temple in the national semi-final?
(Deep breath...) No one's going to beat Kansas, and I wouldn't really predict that Temple can make it to the Final Four. But, the flip side of the frequently noted weak bubble this year is that there really isn't that much separation between teams like Duke or Syracuse, and teams like Temple, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or even BYU. At least, that's what we're telling each other here in Philadelphia.

Tammy said...

Chris and Craig: Who is the lowest seed you think will win a first round game? I think Oakland will give Pittsburgh a lot of trouble. Who do you like in that game? Thanks for this great site.

Anonymous said...

i had a question for Matt Reeves. Are you surprised they didn't put the Georgetown/Tennessee pod in Jacksonville, Wisconsin in Milwaukee, and Pitt in Providence?

Bracketology 101 said...

Siena as a 13 has best chance of any team in the 13-16 range to win a first round game. Purdue has been terrible against good teams without Robbie Hummel, and the Saints have two years of tourney experience on their side.

AG said...

I remember a few years back when the committee made the controversial decision to include both Utah State and Air Force despite Air Force having no wins against RPI Top 100 teams. They mentioned something about geographic distribution or whatever.

Do you suppose its possible that the NCAA attempts to compensate in years where there just aren't that many good west coast teams?

BD said...

Mike Krzyzewski will throw a fit if Duke advances to the South regional and has to play Texas A&M and Baylor in Houston. Doesn't the committee know that coach K is supposed to get whatever he wants whenever he wants? How dare they not have a North Carolina site this year for Duke!

Tammy said...

So you don't think Oakland has a chance against Pittsburgh? I like Oakland to pull that upset.

Floyd said...

I have to agree with Evan about Temple. I'm a Richmond fan and knew they wouldn't get higher than a 7 and might even get an 8 when I saw that Temple got a 5 seed. That was ridiculous. I'm ambivalent about Florida being in, but there is no way they should be a 10. Why did the committee decide to stop weighting the last 10-12 games. You should want the teams playing the best at the end of the year. Otherwise we'll end up with teams on the decline (like Wake) -- who will likely end up being one and dones.

All in all, the committee did just ok but the biggest problem is in what I see are a large number of mis-seedings.

Howard Salwasser said...

To Coach, I just got through reading a few pages of that link you posted and I must say that I'm really angry that someone would spill the beans before the selection show. If it's someone from CBS, ESPN, FOX or whoever that decided to do this, he/she should be fired and his/her employer should be barred from broadcasting the NCAA Tournament ever again. If it's an NCAA employee spilling it, than the NCAA should fire him/her. Really disgusted at this point.

Anonymous said...

Has B101 lost his touch? I am going to watch closely to see if you beat Bracketville in picking the tourney.

Anonymous said...

Where are the downloadable brackets????

Anonymous said...

To be perfectly fair, Coach K is given an awfully bad rap. I've only been following the tourney since the year they lost in the Sweet 16 to indiana, but I can't remember any time Coach K went on TV, or radio, and delivered an un-called for rant about anything. Coach K is a nice guy, in person, who is a member of several foundations, including Jim Valvano's, who was a rival coach. Last year duke had a horrific draw, with Texas, Villanova, and UCLA, and the year before that they drew 2-time consecutive Final Four participant UCLA, Uconn, Purdue, Xavier, and Baylor.
I understand that you hate duke, but at least be rational. Also, there is no reason to NOT put regionals in NC almost every year... 2 of the top 3 basketball programs are located there, and you could argue that they are this generations top 2... Posessing 10 title game appearances in the last 24 years, plus 19 final fours. Also in NC is davidson, an elite eight team from 2008, Wake Forest(elite eight in 96, Sweet sixteen 4 times in 24 years), and NC state, who won the title in 83. Why the hell not have a regional there?

Paymon said...

Anonymous - Last season, the affable Coach K criticized another coach (Roy Williams) for complaining about injuries to their team, to which Roy told him to "worry about his own damn team".

When they lost and failed to protect their seed for the 6th season in a row, what did Coach K cite as one of the reasons for his team's late-season decline? You guessed it? Injuries.

During a game with UNC when Duke was on the rise, what did he mouth to Dean Smith? (Hint: It wasn't "Love you, Dean", but it sounded close).

He also criticizes officials on a regular basis. For a coach whose teams who shoot a high number of jump shots (this year's team is a bit different), his teams always made more free throws than the other teams shot.

This is only the beginning of the reasons why he has an awful reputation for those not associated with Duke University.

matt r said...

Anon,

There was first/second-round site in NC every year from 2004 to 2009, and there was even a Charlotte regional in 2008. I think it was a good year for a break.

Anonymous said...

Temple a 3 seed??? Give me a break. You see today they can't even beat Cornell. Most over rated team in the tourney.

Anonymous said...

During a game with UNC when Duke was on the rise, what did he mouth to Dean Smith? (Hint: It wasn't "Love you, Dean", but it sounded close).


when duke was "on the rise"? So like 30 years ago?

Anonymous said...

The english language isn't my primary language, however I could fully understand this utilizing the google translator. Excellent article, you can keep them coming! Thanks a ton!

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