In true March Madness style, the previous 72 hours did more to complicate the bracket than it did to finalize it. The biggest mess continues to be the bubble, where a dozen of the weakest at-large hopefuls we can remember are playing their way out of the bracket more than they are playing their way in.Here's how we see the Last Four In and Last Four Out - for now - with just seven days to go before Selection Sunday:
The Last Four In
Our last four teams in are San Diego State, Washington, Mississippi, and South Florida. The Aztecs begin MWC tourney play on Thursday (against Colorado State) with two scenarios working in their favor. If they beat New Mexico and make the final, they're in. Even if they lose a close game to the Lobos, we think there's a chance they'll get a bid as well. We weren't ready to say that a couple of days ago, but with all of the craziness of this past weekend, a semis appearance - to go along with a top 40 RPI and wins over New Mexico and UNLV - might be enough to get them a bid. Washington is in this week as an at-large after being in our last couple brackets as a Pac-10 bid-stealer. It's looking right now like even if Cal wins the Pac-10 tournament, that a second Pac-10 team will get in as well. The winner of the potential Washington-Arizona State semifinal game will be that second team, and we like the Huskies to win that game and get the at-large if they need it.
Mississippi and South Florida jumped into the bracket this week because we think they'll win enough conference tournament games to get in. South Florida, after their home win over UConn on Saturday, got the nod as the ninth and final Big East bid because they open with DePaul and then play an up-and-down Georgetown team in the quarters that they already beat this season on the road. Mississippi will likely play Tennessee in their first SEC game, and a win there could be enough to get them a bid. While the Rebels' SEC resume is far from impressive and includes two losses to Mississippi State, they've won four in a row to end the year and they do have wins against Kansas State and UTEP on their OOC resume, which is solid.
The Last Four Out
Our last four teams out as of today are Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Illinois, and Arizona State. The Yellow Jackets are out after a killer home loss to Virginia Tech on Saturday that dropped them to 7-9 in conference. They've lost five of seven down the stretch and they have to play Maryland (if they can get past UNC first) in the ACC quarters. The way the Terps are playing right now, there's no way we see them winning that game. Seton Hall just missed in favor of South Florida because they will have to play a red-hot Notre Dame in the Big East quarters if the get past Providence on Tuesday. Illinois has the wins of an at-large team, but they also have way too many losses. Their home loss to Wisconsin was their 13th loss, and we think they'll get a 14th in their rematch against the Badgers in the Big Ten tourament. That loss total, a mid-70s RPI, and a potential four-game losing streak to end the year will have the Illini on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. Arizona State's at-large chances, as mentioned above, depend on whether or not they can beat Washington in the Pac-10 semis. If they do, they're in. Right now, though, we like the Huskies better.
Elsewhere in the bracket, there were some significant changes made in terms of seeding. West Virginia moved up to the 2 line after their huge come-from-behind win at Villanova - a result that also dropped the Wildcats (who have now lost four of six) to the 3 line. Pitt moved up to the 3 line, and Michigan State moved down to the 4 line, because the Panthers ended up getting the 2 seed in the Big East tournament, which means potentially avoiding Syracuse until the final. Vanderbilt also dropped a spot to the 5 line after their home loss to South Carolina.
We will update our bracket every day this week and our final bracket will be posted in the mid-afternoon on Selection Sunday. Enjoy the madness of Championship Week...
The Breakdown
Last Four In
San Diego State, Washington, Mississippi, South Florida
Last Four Out
Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Illinois, Arizona State
Next Four Out
Minnesota, Mississippi State, Saint Louis, UAB
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Conference Breakdown
Big East (9), Big XII (7), ACC (6), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East - Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida
Big Sky - Weber State
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big XII - Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Big West - UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial - Old Dominion
Conference USA - Memphis, UTEP
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Northern Iowa
MWC - New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
Northeast - Quinnipiac
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Pac-10 - California, Washington
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi
Southern - Wofford
Southland - Sam Houston State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Troy
SWAC - Jackson State
WAC - Utah State
WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
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The Seeds
The 1s
Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
The 2s
Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State
The 3s
Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, Pittsburgh
The 4s
Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Tennessee
The 5s
Baylor, Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Butler
The 6s
Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Xavier, BYU
The 7s
Richmond, Texas, Missouri, Clemson
The 8s
Florida State, Oklahoma State, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest
The 9s
Marquette, Louisville, California, UNLV
The 10s
UTEP, Utah State, Notre Dame, Old Dominion
The 11s
Florida, Virginia Tech, Cornell, St. Mary's
The 12s
Siena, San Diego State, Washington, Mississippi
The 13s
South Florida, Memphis, Kent State, Murray State
The 14s
Oakland, Wofford, Weber State, UC-Santa Barbara
The 15s
Sam Houston State, Morgan State, Troy, Vermont
The 16s
East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Lehigh, Quinnipiac (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
75 comments:
A few questions about some mid majors that don't get much love:
What's your confidence level for UCSB as a #14 seed? Would UOP or Long Beach State get the same seed if they win the Big West?
Weber State is 0-7 against the top 200 RPI in away games, can they slip to a #15 or are they solid at #14 by winning the Big Sky?
Vanderbilt sweeps the season series vs. Tennessee but is still seeded lower? C'mon man.
vandy also didn't beat both kansas and kentucky and has 3 bad losses tennessee doesn't have -- western kentucky and south carolina. do some research before posting. c'mon man.
Would you also prefer to have Louisville seeded ahead of Syracuse?
What would have to happen for West Virginia or someone else to knock Duke off the #1 line?
Can the MWC no longer be called a 'mid-major' anymore?
With four teams in- the same as the Big Ten, one less then the SEC, two more then the Pac-10, and one more then the A-10, I'd say this confrence deserves some long awaited respect.
Beau, I think a significant amount of prayer would be needed, and also some bribe money... Duke has played 31 games so far, and just FOUR are outside the top 140 in RPI... This team has played an INCREDIBLY tough schedule this year, and is currently 17-4 vs the top 100, vs 15-6 for WVU, WVU is 6-4 vs top 50, 8-4 for duke. Feels like as long as duke gets by BC/Virginia and then Va Tech(or Wake), they shouldn't have anything to worry about, even if WVU makes a run to win their tourney. WVU lost their conference by two games, how are they one of the top 4 teams?
@9:02 anonymous... One season does not a major conference make.
Duke played in a watered down ACC with really just one other good team (Maryland). What would Duke's record have been had they played West Virginia's schedule? We already know how well they matched up against GT, who finished 8th place in the BE. If Duke was in the Big East they would have finished 5th at best.
An addition to the comments about duke... Only 7 of their games are against teams outside of pomeroy's top 80(just 3 of their last 27 games).
I never thought the MWC was considered a mid-major. Used to be that the old WAC, Atlantic Ten, and Conference USA, although not BCS conferences, and not one of the best, were still considered major conferences. When the WAC split, both the MWC and WAC were considered major.
I basically use mid-major to describe conferences where the regular season champ can get an at-large bid, but nobody else can. The MWC and A-10 frequently get bids beyond their regular season champ.
West Virginia's third place finish in the Big East definitely hurts their chances at a 1 seed. The Big East is better than the ACC, but third place is still third place. That would be difficult for the committee to justify.
Pacific would be a 14 seed too. Long Beach State (at 13-15 overall) would be a 16 and likely in the play-in game. We like Weber to get a 14 because they have a decent RPI (77) and the Big Sky is the 18th-rated conference.
west virginia's blowout loss to purdue also kills any shot at a 1 seed. there's no way that the 3rd place in 1 bcs conference leapfrogs the winners of other bcs conferences when it got blown out in its biggest OOC game. had west virginia won that game, it would be a different story.
Bracketology 101 Pwns Lunardi!!!
My question is... Are we looking for the 31 BEST non-auto-qualifiers, or the 31 MOST ACCOMPLISHED?
I'm still having trouble with you putting Baylor ahead of A&M. I agree with your point from Friday that they have a slightly better road/neutral court record; however, they have 2 losses to teams with an RPI over 100. A&M doesn't have a loss to a team with an RPI over 49...and that was @ Washington (the Roland injury game which should be taken with a grain of salt). I think 2 bad losses weighs more than a slightly better road/neutral court record.
B101-
I'm not expecting the Illini to beat Wisconsin in Friday's rematch, but let's say they do. Would that put them in, or would they need to beat Ohio State as well?
As a Minnesota fan, is winning the conference tourney my only hope? I am confident we can beat Penn State Thursday. Would a couple wins against Michigan State and Purdue get us back on the bubble?
Just for clarification purposes... Is this the same "Illinois" team that lost to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Northwestern and Minnesota, PLUS 7 other games? Come on... this is a team that is 8-12 vs top 180 RPI teams. EIGHT WINS vs TWELVE LOSSES.
DR, you are 7-11 vs top 180 RPI teams. SEVEN WINS vs ELEVEN LOSSES. Enjoy your 6 seed in the NIT, and beef up next year.
This is actually pretty fun... Ohio state, the supposed 1 seed contender, is just 11-7 vs top 180 RPI teams, whereas duke, whom they'd be looking to overtake, is a smooth 23-5.
SD st, whom you have in, is 8-7 vs top 180 teams(loss to 8-20 wyoming=fail). The gators are 14-10.
If ODU loses tonight to W&M, how good of a chance do they have of getting in?
Just for clarification purposes, "Illinois" has been very inconsistent this year. However, if they somehow knock off Wisconsin and Ohio State in Indy, they are getting in. That would give them 6 impressive wins. The bubble is very weak this year, so who exactly would you put in ahead of them in that case?
West Virginia also beat Ohio State with Evan Turner. So I guess that Ohio State has no shot at a 1 seed either?
Was it seeding issues that pushed memphis so the lowest at large seed? They are a 13 lower than all the last four in.
It's Duke's # 1 to lose, but remember that Ohio State lost 3 or 4 when Evan Turner was out. The committee looks at that kind of stuff pretty hard. With a win in the Big Ten Tourney final and an early Duke out (not likely) it could flip
The Midwest is an absolute brutal bracket. I am assuming you have KU as the overall #1 seed... So you are saying that Ohio State is the worst 2nd seed?? Also 1-6 that bracket is ridiculous.
Wiley -
At last check B101 has Memphis projected to win the CUSA tourney, hence the lower seed than all the at larges. I don't think they're going to get in otherwise.
Just for clarification purposes, "Illinois" has been very inconsistent this year. However, if they somehow knock off Wisconsin and Ohio State in Indy, they are getting in. That would give them 6 impressive wins. The bubble is very weak this year, so who exactly would you put in ahead of them in that case?
Inconsistency is the mark of a poor team with high-ceiling players, not the mark of a very good team.
MSU without Kalin Lucas, Wisconsin without leuer... Those aren't quality wins.
Also, like I said. Illinois is 8-12 vs the top 180 RPI. EIGHT AND TWELVE. How exactly do they deserve a berth, even if they do get lucky and string together a couple big wins in the tournament?
Ohio State guy... OSU lost 3 games without turner, and i suppose you can lock down the michigan game as a surefire win for OSU if they had turner, but I think Wisky handles them easily with turner in madison, and I think the butler game is a toss up in indianapolis.
So if you erase 1, maybe 2 losses... It's still hard to envision OSU as being a higher seed than duke, even if duke falls early and OSU runs through overrated MSU, or purdue(minus hummel)and wisconsin. This would still leave them, likely, with just 13-14 wins against top 180 teams, vs 23(minimum) for duke. I don't see how even the biggest OSU homer could POSSIBLY favor ohio state. We must be realistic and put into perspective these tournaments, rather than allowing them to overshadow the other 30 games already played.
Mag-
What are Vandy's 3 bad losses? OK, W. Kentucky was really bad, but that's all I see. UT's Southern Cal loss was almost as bad (125 vs. 108). The S. Carolina loss was embarrassing, but they are 84 in the RPI. Both teams have a UGa road loss, which is still in the top 100 and a killer home team. I think the sweep makes them pretty close, like B101 has it. I'd have UT as my #2 4-seed and Vandy as my bottom 4 seed, but I'm not a big Wisconsin fan this year.
abigail,
The seeds listed above the bracket are in the projected order. Kansas State is the lowest 2 seed. Also, the team that is paired with #1 overall is not necessarily the lowest 2-seed (and couldn't be in this bracket).
If ODU loses tonight, we give them about a 65-70% chance of getting in. We will likely keep them in our bracket tomorrow, but they will need some help over the next six days to keep their spot.
We have Memphis in as a bid-stealer, but we aren't completely sold on their at-large chances if they lose in the C-USA final. Two wins (potentially three) over UAB is nice, but the Blazers aren't a bid-worthy team right now. Memphis' only wins over teams we have in our bracket are against Oakland and Jackson State, and those teams might not make it in the end, either. That's why they're a 13 seed, and that's why they better win the C-USA tourney if they want to feel safe. The only reason the Tiegrs are even in the discussion right now ie because this year's bubble is so weak. In any other year, a resume like theirs would barely make the Next Four Out list.
I wasn't suggesting Minnesota is deserving of an NCAA bid, but if we are listed in the next four out, curious what the experts think it will take for us to sneak in. Is winning the tournament the only way?
I usually think of the next 4 out as pretty far out. By the end of championship week, last 4 in often become last 4 out, and last 4 out often become next 4 out, barring some sort of huge run. IMO, Minnesota would have to make a run to the Big Ten final.
You may have answered this before...
You guys have had Kentucky playing their opening round games in New Orleans for a couple of weeks now. What's your reasoning for that?
Just curious. I think they'll end up playing their opening round games in Milwaukee.
New Orleans is SEC country, Milwaukee is Big Ten country so it just makes sense to put Kentucky in New Orleans
A final appearance for Minnesota should be enough.
Plus, Kentucky to Milwaukee vs somewhere down south like Jax or NO is sort of even. There will be too many other teams closer to Milwaukee come Selection Sunday.
Have you seen Lunardi's updated first 4 out? He still has Dayton and Rhode Island in there.
Things would have to break right for Illinois, but with a win over Wisconsin on Friday I think they'd get in.
Why doesn't Wisconsin get more respect? They had a big injury that hurt them a bit, and are 4-2 vs the top 25 RPI.
Whats the worst RPI that has been a 2 seed before? I'm guessing Ohio State could set the record this yr?
It's not last four out it's last four in...that really makes me trust your opinion...the last four out would be the four worst teams in ncaa div. I
Texas A&M is better then a 6, i mean look at there resume, its crazy how good they are and what there doing, and if they make some noise in the big 12 tourny then they can be fighting for a 5 or 4 seed.
Actually, first four out has always bugged me. I would think the first four out would be the first 4 teams you deem as not tournament worthy. The last four out would be the last ones you exclude. Just like when you play the NCAA tournament, the last team out is the runner up, and the first team out is the loser of the 64/65 game.
Would Seton Hall pass Notre Dame if they beat them in the 2nd round of the Big East tournament?
They wouldn't "pass" them. They'd likely be in the field too as the ninth Big East bid.
I just hope West Virginia gets a 2 seed and then Duke is the 1 in their bracket. That is like an easy road to the final four for WVU.
Wisconsin is seeded behind Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State because they finished a game worse than those teams in conference. The gap between the Badgers and Spartans is very small, and we wouldn't be surprised if they swapped seeds or were on the same line after the conclusion of the Big Ten tourney.
Why is Illinois stillwoith any shot? Heck i have Northern Colorado better than them :)
Hey 101,
Regardless of the St mary's / zags game......are both going to the Dance?
-A Sunbelt Fan
Is conference record the only thing pushing the WI Badgers below them? We can throw Purdue at the top as they're overall record obviously is above. Overall their resume is obviously better. Overall they have the same(7) losses. They had to play the other top 3 teams in coverence more than Michigan State and Purdue did. They blew both those teams out, and lost close games to them. going 50%. Their overall resume is better. And, they also had a huge injury to John Leuer.
I can understand you all having Georgetown as a 5 seed, especially if you think USF will beat them on Wednesday. But Lunardi has Georgetown as a 6. This is a team with 5 wins over the top 17 teams in the RPI. The #1 SOS. The hardest schedule in the Big East (part of the reason they finished 8th -- home and aways with #1 and #4 -- road only against 2,3,5 and 6). Sure, they have 1 bad loss - at Rutgers (their next worst loss is RPI 63 -- USF), but that doesn't eliminate all of the quality wins.
Agree with the Wisconsin guy. Seems a little unfair to penalize Wisconsin (who does have a superior OOC resume to Mich St) because they finished 1 game in conference behind Mich St.
Especially when you consider Mich St only had to play Ohio State (most would agree the current best team in conference) once (and they lost at home to OSU) and their lone victory over Purdue was without Hummel (while Wisconsin played Purdue twice with Hummel).
Rhode Island and St Louis look as if they will meet in the 2nd round of the A-10 tournament. Does the winner of that game get in or do they have to defeat Temple after that as well?
I assume your bracket for today based on a projected St. Mary's win tonight? (11 certainly seems high for the Gaels should they lose tonight).
Last week you had Mississippi State making the field largely based on the assumption they would beat Tennessee. That didn't happen, but now you have made a similar assumption with Ole Miss - that Ole Miss will knock off Tennessee and move into the bracket. As you might guess, I'm a Vols fan, and just wondering why you seem to be down on them. I know you have them as four but still...
Agree with you on Georgetown. I think they are going to be one of the teams everyone is surprised with how high they are seeded. Can't see them being worse than a low 4/high 5 with a win of USF on Wed. Don't forget, another strong showing after beating Cincy on Sat will show that the Freeman injury really was a factor during their psuedo-slide in the latter part of the BE.
If St. Mary's loses tonight, they'll have about a 65-70% chance of making it too - just like ODU does if they lose to W&M. A good case could be made for each team to get in over the other in that scenario: ODU has a conference title and the best win, while St. Mary's has two good wins to ODU's one. St. Mary's first needs to be competitive against the Zags tonight. If they lose by double-digits, it hurts their chances significantly.
The winner of URI-Saint Louis still has to beat Temple to be in the mix.
We don't have anything against Tennessee, we are just going with the more desperate team (again) in a win-and-in situation.
The fact that Georgetown is a 5 seed despite a 10-8 conference record shows just how good their wins are. Even with a loss in the quarters to USF, we wouldn't be stunned if they still got a 5 seed.
So here's a hypothetical:
Say South Florida beats Depaul
, Gtown, Syracuse, and Villanova but loses to Seton Hall in the finals, who would beat Providence, Notre Dame, Pitt, and WV. Would the Big East get 10 bids?
Those two wouldn't even need to win that many games to make it.
Any chance Dayton gets back into the discussion with a run to the A-10 final (wins over Xavier and probably Richmond) or are they completely done?
If your crazy scenario unfolds Wiley someone like ND could very well get left out in the Big East but 10 bids could happen as well.
Dayton would be back in the mix with a A-10 final trip, but would still need help at that point to get a bid.
Mr. K
So you would say UConn definitely needs to win the whole BE tournament to get in?
Yup.
Wisconsin was played all its big games very early in the season, and kind of were out of sight, out of ind after that, especially with Leuer's injury.
Despite that they were a bit hosed at Purdue without Leuer on a blatantly missed fould call in the closing second. They are treated as second class citizens behind the league tri-champs, a 1-game difference that is due as much to schedule as anything. They beat Duke, Maryland, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, and MSU. Pomeroy and Sagarin's performance based ratings both have the Badgers in the top 10 in the nation, without even taking Leuer's absence into account.
Two years ago when the Badgers were 29-4, winners of both the regular season and tournament titles in the league, with a road win over Texas and still got a 3 seed behind 28-6 Texas and others with arguably weaker resumes. That is not an historical anamoly.
Rest assured, you can take Wisconsin's reasonable, earned seed line and add a least 1. It's a committee tradition.
I despise UConn and think it's highly unlikely this will happen but can't see how they wouldn't be a mortal lock if they just make the BE finals. That would require them to beat @St Johns, Marquette, Nova, and either Cuse or Georgetown. They'd pretty much have 5 victories that no one (not even a 1 seed) could match. That being Nova twice, Texas, West Virginia, and Cuse/Gtown.
I think if they just make the semis and play real competitively against Syracuse, they'd be right on the bubble having added victories St Johns, Marquette, and Nova.
How far will Gonzaga fall after this blowout loss to St. Mary's? Outside of the win against Wisconsin in November, Gonzaga doesn't really have any great wins. I think the teams you have seeded 7-8 have better resumes than the Zags. Am I wrong to think that they should drop to at least an 8 seed?
I'm just amazed that the seven seeds include 3 of the top 20 according to Pomeroy, and would likely be favored against the 3 seeds head to head. (or, to put it in the negative, have fun picking against Temple, New Mexico, and Pittsburgh)
Is there really that many people that look at the Pomeroy rankings, or does everyone that looks at Pomeroy comment here?
Pomeroy has its uses, but is there anyone that truly believes Duke is the #1 team in the country? Last year, his system had Memphis at #2. Obviously it has its limitations. It rewards teams that play close losses and win in blowouts.
I doubt the committee, some of whom aren't even basketball people, know who Pomeroy is.
It rewards teams that play close losses and win in blowouts.
So it rewards teams that tend to overmatch most of their opponents, and never be overmatched themselves?
Yeah, I see why that's a problem...
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