As expected, the bubble picture cleared up a bit on Friday. San Diego State and Georgia Tech both locked down their bids, while Virginia Tech and Florida moved closer to the bubble and onto our Last Five In list. We used a Last Five In list today (instead of the traditional Last Four In list) because those five teams are the only ones who we could see not making the final bracket if things break a certain way over the weekend.The Big Ten was the big winner overall on Friday. Minnesota and Illinois were added to our latest bracket, while Mississippi State and Tulsa were removed. The Gophers and Illini both pulled off upsets on Friday, and they are now in position to lock up their bids with wins in the Big Ten semis. As long as Washington is not blown out by Cal, we like the Huskies' chances for a bid as well. The last thing that Virginia Tech needed was a bad loss to close out the season, but that's what happened against Miami. The Hokies just need to hope now that the Miami or N.C. State does not win the ACC tourney and they should be safe on Sunday.
With UTEP now in the C-USA final, we were forced to abandon our C-USA bid-stealer. The opportunity for bid-stealers still exists in the WAC and C-USA, but we just don't see it happening with the way that Utah State and UTEP have played. The only other spot where a bid-stealer is still possible is in the ACC, with N.C. State and Miami still being alive. The only teams that we do not currently have in who we could see getting an at-large still are Mississippi State and Rhode Island. If URI can get by Temple on Saturday, they would put themselves in good shape for an at-large. Mississippi State, meanwhile, picked up a big win over Florida on Friday, which means a win in the semis over Vanderbilt would probably be enough to warrant a bid. If the Bulldogs do find a way to win on Saturday, then Florida fans need to be worried about the Gators' at-large chances.
The biggest seed climbers after Friday's results were Georgetown moving from a 4 to a 3, Tennessee and Vanderbilt going from 5s to 4s, Cal and UNLV going from 9s to 7s, and SDSU going from a 12 to a 10. The biggest declines were Michigan State going from a 3 to a 5, Maryland dropping from a 4 to a 5, and Marquette and Florida State going from 7s to 9s.
We will now go into weekend lockdown mode and will release our final bracket on Sunday afternoon. For the first time in the history of Bracketology 101, Chris and Craig will be together on Sunday to complete their final bracket. Hopefully the two minds being together in the same room on Selection Sunday will lead to going 65/65 for the first time ever and once again seeding at least 60 teams within one spot of their seed line and at least 40 teams exactly on their seed.
The Breakdown
Last Five In
Virginia Tech, Florida, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois
Last Four Out
Rhode Island, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Arizona State
Next Four Out
South Florida, Mississippi, William & Mary, Memphis
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (6), MWC (4), SEC (4), A-10 (3), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East - Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Big West - UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial - Old Dominion
Conference USA - UTEP
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Northern Iowa
MWC - New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Pac-10 - California, Washington
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida
Southern - Wofford
Southland - Sam Houston State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - North Texas
SWAC - Arkansas-Pine Bluff
WAC - Utah State
WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
The 2s
Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State
The 3s
Temple, Villanova, Georgetown, New Mexico
The 4s
Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
The 5s
Baylor, Michigan State, Butler, Maryland
The 6s
Texas A&M, Xavier, Richmond, BYU
The 7s
Gonzaga, Texas, California, UNLV
The 8s
Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Clemson, Notre Dame
The 9s
Marquette, Florida State, Missouri, St. Mary's
The 10s
Utah State, Wake Forest, Old Dominion, UTEP
The 11s
San Diego State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech
The 12s
Cornell, Florida, Washington, Minnesota
The 13s
Illinois, Siena, Murray State, Oakland
The 14s
Akron, Wofford, UC-Santa Barbara, Montana
The 15s
Sam Houston State, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont
The 16s
East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Play-In Game), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
263 comments:
1 – 200 of 263 Newer› Newest»It just pains me to see Minnesota in the bracket. Why not Rhode Island? That is the only quibble I have with your bracket. Maybe that will change if Rhode Island upsets temple.
Looking forward to seeing your bracket tomorrow!!
If Illinois and Minnesota both lose today and URI wins then the Rams will likely be in over both Big Ten schools. Then the tough decision will have to be made on who between Illinois and Minnesota has a better resume. Their RPIs are very similar as are their good wins. Minnesota has one or two more questionable losses and finished a game behind in conference, but they also have a better record down the stretch and they recently won at Illinois.
Does Rhode Island have any big wins? Minnesota has beaten every single tournament bound team in their conference, AND Butler. Rhode Island has 4 losses against non-tournament teams, and has failed to secure a single victory over a tournament bound team from their conference
Minmesota may have more bad losses, but how can you let a team in whose best victory is over expected 8th seeded Oklahoma State?
How does UNM not take a bigger hit for their loss?
MSU taking a decent hit for the loss of Minnesota is fair, but why doesn't Wisconsin take a similar hit? MSU lost in overtime, and Wisconsin dropped 2 of 3 against Illinois this year.
Minnesota is 0-2 against Purdue going into today's game. They'll need to win that for your statement about them beating every tourney bound team from their conference to be true.
My bad, you're correct. They did beat number 2 seed OSU, 4 seed Wisconsin, 5 seed MSU, 13 seed Illinois, and 5 seed Butler.
Although my original statement overstated their success, they still have an impressive number of big wins for a bubble team. They match it with 6 losses to non-tournament teams, but I'll take a team with 4 more big wins before I'll take a team with 2 fewer bad losses.
Don't forget to consider the "Always-find-a-way-to-break-my-heart" factor when it comes to Minnesota sports. I can pretty much guarantee that Minnesota will be the "first team out" when its all over tomorrow. Something will happen that will defy logic to put us out.
New Mexico is the most overhyped team in the field. They have essentially had an incredibly lucky string of results in close games. They will not make the sweet 16.
any underrated teams you guys see otentially making a run this year?
Do you think UTEP can get a 6 or a 7 if they win number 17 in a row?
Does the Gopher win over Sparty get downgraded a little because Chris Allen didn't play and Summers was benched most of the game? Just wondering, nothing against the Gophers. I actually like their chances against Purdue if they play with the same intensity they had yesterday.
Don't put it past Izzo to know going in after two close wins over Minnesota in the regular season that his chances of beating them a third time were slim. I'll leave it up to you to determine whether Izzo saw any upsides to benching Allen, i.e., so that excuses such as the one you are now making could be made for them. I'm sure he had other reasons too, but that sure sweetened the pot. Typical. Minnesota was going to win that game, no matter what.
PSU last year had better wins in conference than Minn this year, and they were the first team out. It
behooves Minn to win one or two more games. They're a talented team that probably shouldn't be in this situation.
I agree Minnesota may have to win again, or at least lose by less than 10. And, unlike my previous statement about manifest destiny beating Michigan State, I can't say the same about Purdue. But without Hummel, I'd say the chances are good. Yes, if talent was the sole arbiter, Minnesota would definitely be in. When they play, they can play with anyone.
Wait...how do you have Wisconsin as a 4 and MSU as a 5? You do know Wisconsin lost yesterday, too, right?
Why is VT ahead of Florida in your pecking order. 4 more losses but they didn't rack the wins up against as many bad teams as VT. They have have better wins. VT is 0-4 vs the top 25. You can make a case for Illinois to be ahead of them too already even with a loss today.
Does Gtown jump WVU with a stong win today or is the distance between them just too big? Thanks.
B101, if Illinois finishes the day with a loss to Ohio State, and then makes the tourney, they will do so with 7 wins against teams .500 or better. Is there any precedent for an at large team winning with such a non-existent profile?
10:42 anonymous... Virginia tech went 10-6 in the #1 rated Pomeroy and the number 2 sagarin conference, is 34th in said pomeroy ratings, and has 8 losses on the season, all of them to top 65 teams in the pomeroy rating. There is no way in hell they get left out.
"PSU last year had better wins in conference than Minn this year, and they were the first team out."
how do you know that? the committee doesn't reveal this information and you only know that PSU didn't get a bid.
I would be stunned if Dan Guerrero can't get 2 Pac 10 teams in. Washington looks to be safe even with a loss.
Why does "apissedant" hate New Mexico and Rhode Island so much? Are they related to elitist Billy Packer?
JP... I think the reason is that Rhode Island is, by definition, RHODE ISLAND. 1 good OOC win+4th in the 6th best conference, 4 games back does not = tourney team.
Anonymous, Do not be surprised if Virginia Tech is left out. Their OOC resume and SOS is pathetic. The Hokie's resume reminds me a lot of Penn State last year. Why reward a team for scheduling cream puffs in OOC? You also can't just go by their 10-6 conference record because the Hokies only had to play Duke, Maryland, and Clemson 1 time. Virginia beat up on the bottom of the conference. 2 losses to last place Miami will not impress the committee.
James, I'm sure Rhode Island and new mexico are hated because winning a bad conference and killing everyone in it means practically nothing. And finishing 4th in an OK conference means even less. New Mexico could become the first 2 seed in recent memory with no elite-level wins.
Texas A&M, BYU, Dayton, Cal, and UNLV are not good wins?
Would Illinois really be left out with 5 top 25 wins? It would be a joke to include a team like Mississippi State or Washington who didn't do much in OOC.
Tim, I see where you're coming from. 2 losses to a team that specializes in upsets aren't impressive by any stretch of the word, except maybe if you took the word at it's literal meaning, which would be something in the realm of "That which makes an impression" and added that it was a negative impression. HOWEVER, with a weak bubble, the fact that VT went 14-6 vs BCS competition, has 8 losses vs Illinois' 14, and only 1 came at home(maryland), I think VT is safe.
"PSU last year had better wins in conference than Minn this year, and they were the first team out."
how do you know that? the committee doesn't reveal this information and you only know that PSU didn't get a bid.
I don't "know", but it's a pretty safe assumption that if the tournament was 66 teams PSU would've been the next team selected. Most bracketologists had the last team in as either St. Marys, PSU, or Arizona and Arizona made it. PSU went 10-8 last year in a conference that sent 7 other teams dancing, so the committee held the Big Ten in very high esteem.
On that note, VT might have a long wait. They have a similar profile to PSU last year, only with fewer big conference wins due to the unbalanced ACC schedule.
I comment on this site too much not to use my name... BYU is another team in the mold of NM, dominating a bad conference, and is not an impressive win, if you judge a team by who they've beaten, which in BYU's case is nobody. Cal's best wins are ASU, ASU, Washington and MURRAY state. Doesn't really spell elite, does it? Dayton went 8-8 in said 6th ranked conference, and has GT as its best win, also not really elite, Texas A&M looks better in real life than it does on paper, with their best wins being baylor, mizzou, and post-apocalyptic Texas. You can build a tourney resume on wins over the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and seventh bwest teams in your conference, but it won't be an elite one. UNLV's best wins are SDSU, a split with NM, and louisville. Again, not very elite.
You think Gtown will keep a three if they lose tonight and if they win are they maxed at a three or could they get a two. Their 7th in RPI and would almost certainly keep 7th if they win tonight but they have 9 losses so I'm not sure if they have a shot at a two and was curious what others thought.
Also, totally agree with appisedant at 7:40 AM EST, I get that UNM lost to a legit tourney bound team so its not a bad loss, but looking at their schedule I see no really quality wins and they've fallen to 13th in the RPI, sure they have a good record but alone is it enough for a 3 seed.
On that note, VT might have a long wait. They have a similar profile to PSU last year, only with fewer big conference wins due to the unbalanced ACC schedule.
On the other hand, they could be the 6th team called off the board, no? The ACC is filled top-to-bottom with good-to-very good teams, with its top 2 being very good, and duke being a top 5 team in the country. There isn't a real cellar in the ACC, the 2 worst-in-conference teams are in the semi's of the tournament. The 10 seed has 2 top 25 wins, OSU and MSU.
Georgetown won't be a 2. No way. KU-UK-SU-DUKE-KSU-WVU-NOVA-PURDUE-TENNESSEE all have better resumes, especially if tennessee ends up beating kentucky for a THIRD win over a 1 seed.
B101, Do you think Illinois or Minnesota is more worthy of a bid if they both would lose today?
James, someone just gave you a great breakdown. Dayton is not a tourny bound team, so NO, it is not a good win. Two of the others are in conference wins, and it has been broken down multiple times that the only reason either of those teams look impressive is because of their in conference wins. A and M is not an impressive win. A and M doesn't have an impressive resume and has been dominated by KU and KSU.
URI had a crappy OOC schedule, and did nothing in conference.
Temple scheduled Georgetown, Va Tech, Villanova, and KU out of conference. Those are quality games, and they won half of them. That's impressive.
BYU, URI, UNM, and UNLV all scheduled crap schedules, and therefore have pretty good records. Beating crappy teams shouldn't win accolades from the committee or fans.
Anonymous, Virginia Techs' non-conference schedule was pathetic. Illinois play a tough non-conference schedule and beat Clemson and Vanderbilt. Teams that challenge themselves in ooc should be rewarded over teams that play weak ooc schedules. Seth Greenberg chose to schedule easy and may get burned by it. Horrible scheduling on his part.
"Beating crappy teams shouldn't win accolades from the committee or fans."
Thats why Virginia Tech may be playing in the NIT.
Lunardi moved Florida up from a 12 yesterday to an 11 today.
Oh, and by the way I'm a Michigan fan. I haven't even tried to defend them since their second loss to an unranked team. They suck and I know they suck.
I've also been praising the Big East all season. I hate the Big East. Every football season I complain all the way until January about how overrated the Big East is and how crap all of their schedules are.
It just so happens that the Big East is much better at basketball than they are at football, and that this season is no exception. They've dominated the entire NCAA field. I have no doubt in my mind that the 9th, 10th, and 11th best teams in the Big East would easily make the tournament if they were in any other conference.
A Piss: New Mexico was willing to go out on the road and play 5 road games. Some teams only play 1 true road game in pre league play. You better check your facts before criticizing the New Mexico schedule. Playing Oral Roberts is far from easy. If its so easy, why aren't big CBS schools willing to play at Oral Roberts? New Mexico also played Cal, Dayton, Texas Tech, Creighton, Louisiana Tech, and Texas A&M. Anyone who follows CBB closely knows these are not "crappy" teams like Piss said. The Mountain West conference is solid this year and they will prove it in March. Piss is uninformed and will be proven wrong.
The ACC isn't that special. The 10th best team might have two quality wins over OSU and MSU out of conference, but that's more OOC wins against 6 or better seeded teams than the top 4 ACC teams combined.
How does it prove the quality of a conference if the 10th best team in the conference has the most impressive OOC record?
is it BYU's fault that Arizona has their worst team in 25 years?
49ers...
How many teams did you just list as quality that won't be making the tournament? How many of them won't even make the NIT?
What is your definition of quality? I'd hate to see what you take home from the bar at night.
James G,
How dare you argue with apissedant! He knows everything and has never been wrong. Small conferences are evil!
I won't be at a bar. I will be at church with my wife and kids.
Because, Apiss, it means that the tenth best team is still good enough to beat OSU and MSU.
Craig and Chris- Does Mississippi State have to beat Vandy to earn a slot? Is Florida safe cause of that strong OOC schedule?
12:16 anonymous.
No, but we don't leave out the teams that were lazy and scheduled creampuffs, and include all of the teams that tried real hard... It doesn't matter if the game looked better a year ago on their schedule, the team you play is the one that counts on the resume, and Arizona was awful.
William & Mary deserves credit for going on the road and beating Maryland and Wake Forest. Are Maryland and Wake making a return trip to the W&M campus? Or are Dino Gaudio and Gary Williams too scared?
Yeah, the picture on my profile is of my car... with OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY written across the window. Do you consider Colonial a small conference?
I don't like most of the teams I'm arguing for, and have nothing against the teams I'm arguing against.
I do like quality basketball games, and UNM vs. Oral Roberts definitely doesn't count as that.
And as to anonymous, the fact I mentioned means that the top 4 teams in the ACC aren't good enough to beat OSU and MSU, or anyone of that caliber. Do you not see the flaw in your logic? You're essentially arguing that paper is better than scissors because rock breaks scissors and paper covers rock.
The #1 ACC team lost to Wisconsin and Georgetown. #2 lost to Villanova, William and Mary, Cincinatti, and Wisconsin. #3 lost to Florida, and OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY. #4 lost to Temple. Combined the four best teams in the ACC have 1 win over a ranked OOC opponent.
By your logic, the bottom of the ACC is better than the top of the ACC, and we should just abandon the tournament and hand UNC the trophy.
12:33... Or, is it that it's a lose-lose situation for Wake to play at W&M? if they win, it looks like just another non-conference win over a mid-to-low-major team, indistinguishable from a win over N'eastern or Fairfield, if they lose it's a MASSIVE loss.
Apissedant... You may be right that the 4 of MSU-OSU-Purdue-Wisconsin is better than the ACC's top 4, but the rest of the leagues' teams are incomparable. The big ten is ATROCIOUS outside of the top 6.
The Big East title game probably has little meaning for seeds. G'town is maxed out a 3 and WVU is likely locked in at a 2.
We probably like Minnesota a little bit better than Illinois if they both lose today but it is a very tough call to make. It also matters how much they lose by today.
VT is still vulnerable since there is a possibility for a ACC bid stealer.
Va tech is an 11, minnesota a 12, washington a 12, and illiois a 13... You're saying that even if ALL 3 lose today, Va tech is still the most vulnerable team?
It amazes me that Washington is getting a free pass. They got 3rd in a very weak Pac-10. Their best wins are vs Texas A&M and Cal. They lost to Oregon, Swept by USC, lost to UCLA and lost to Texas Tech. When you compare them to Illinois or Minnesota it should be obvious that the latter 2 teams should be in before Washington.
We had Michigan State artificially high anticipating that they would advance far in the Big Ten tourney. Wisconsin should be seeded higher than MSU. They have a 6-4 record against top 50, while MSU is only 3-4.
VT is on the 11 line since we had grouping issues with the ACC we didn't have the option to make them a 12.
I guess we should have kept that C-USA bid stealer in....
Houston wants to steal a spot. Gus Johnson is going crazy!
Looks like the first bid stealer is going to be houston...
illinois moving out as of now with houston about to win?
"Or, is it that it's a lose-lose situation for Wake to play at W&M?"
No, It would help Wake's RPI more to beat William & Mary on the road than at home. Scheduling more road games would benefit Wake.
B101 was wrong about Conference USA. They did indeed get 2 teams in.
Regardless of Washington's profile, we think that given the bubble choices that the committee will give the Huskies a bid.
First time we haven't had a C-USA bid stealer/2nd team in our bracket in we don't know how long.
B101, assuming OSU-Purdue wins the B10 tourney, does duke have to win today to keep their 1 seed?
Is UTEP at risk with that loss? Looking at their record, it's a lot shakier than I previously thought. Two wins over non-tourney UAB and that's it. Also a pretty low They romped C-USA for most of the season, but that's not saying much. Lost to the only teams close to the tournament they played (BYU / Ole Miss).
Justin,
Utep will make the field tomorrow.
Justin,
Utep will make the field tomorrow.
Jim Nantz just said Illinois has 5 wins over the computer top 15. Is that true?
If Purdue wins the Big Ten tourney then things get interesting for the last one seed. It would be a tough call between Sracuse, Duke, and Purdue for the final 2 one seeds
Keith, Illinois has 0 wins over computer top 15 teams, they have wins in the top 50.
How is Oakland a 13 seed and Montana a 14. The only opponent they both have in common is Oregon. Montana won at Eugene by 13 and Oakland lost at Eugene by 12.
Interesting about UTEP... 2 top 50 wins, no wins over legitimate tourney teams, and 2 losses outside the top 100... Is that really a better resume than Va Tech, who has 1 more loss, but only 1 loss top not-top-100 teams, and has 3 top 50 wins, all of whom will be in the tourney?
In most years UTEP would probably get left out, their resume is non-existent. Unless things really break badly for them today (Illinois, URI, Minnesota, Mississippi State all win and Utah State losses) they should still make it. It's not unthinkable that they get left out.
Illinois is a case study, at this point. If only big wins matter, they are a 8-9 seed, if everything else is a factor then they should be a 3 seed in the NIT.
B101, can you explain why UTEP's resume is better than VT's?
SEC Dave...Miss State needs to win today to have any chance at a bid. Florida will be safe so long as Mississippi State losses. If Miss St wins then things get realy interesting for the Gators.
What a thrill to have Houston in the tournament. Thank you UTEP for making that happen. Any chance UTEP gets left out as a reward for their efforts today?
what sleeper teams do you like this year B101
If Purdue wins the Big 10 tourney, there's an argument for them to be a #1. Not sure that I would make that argument, but it can be made.
However, can you explain placing Duke over Syracuse in any scenario? Syracuse got beat in their conference tourney by a team that would probably win the ACC. I really don't think that's a stretch to say that. Even if you don't agree with that, even the biggest ACC homer would have to agree Georgetown would be now worse than 2nd in the ACC. Georgetown destroyed Duke when they played.
Duke, meanwhile, is about to get to their conference championship via UVA and Miami. Syracuse's losses are much better than Duke's losses. Syracuse has lost to RPIs 39, 7, and 16. Duke has a 100+ loss on their resume. Syracuse's wins are much better than Duke's wins (5 top 25 wins vs 1). Syracuse has less losses.
I'm not sure I understand why Syracuse is behind Duke.
It depends on what the match-ups are, but we like Utah State and ODU as double digit seeds that could potentially win two games.
I should've hit refresh before making my last comment. I see you already kind of answered the UTEP question with a 'maybe'.
Could be because Duke won their conference tourney, and syracuse didn't.
If duke goes through GT, they'd have 8 top 50 wins, vs 7, and 18 top 100 wins vs 17.
Purdue will be hard pressed to beat Minnesota much less win the Big Ten tournament. If they do manage that feat the least they could do is make Purdue a #1 seed. If Robbie Hummel was injured earlier in the year I think it'd be easier for Purdue to regroup.
Anonymous at 12:33,
That's relatively fair. Wake Forest and UNC especially are by far better than the comparable teams in the Big 10. It's actually kind of funny considering preseason the Big 10 was supposed to be a power house and was expected to get as many as 7 tournament spots.
B101 thanks for the insight on the BE final, does Gtown need to win to keep the 3, couldn't tell from your response or do they just need to avoid a blowout?
Also, Anonymous at 2:14 PM I agree that Syracuse is much better than Duke and has a better resume but they did lose two straight (neither a bad loss but still its a bad way to end the season) also Onawku's injury may through up some question marks to the committee also when is the last time was a team that won both the regular season and ACC tournament not awarded a 1 seed, I'm not saying that's a reason they should get it, but just a possible insight on the thinking of the selection committee. Also Duke RPI is 2 while Syracuse is 5 and Duke is #1 on Pomeroy (not sure the committee gives it any credit but thought I should throw it in their).
Of course all of that said I agree Syracuse should be ahead of Duke and I'm praying that Gtown is in Duke's bracket.
Craig... If making them a 1 is the least they can do, what is the most they can do?
Of course, winning the BE tourney is a lot more difficult than winning the ACC tourney. Especially when your quarterfinal matchup is more difficult than anything Duke would face in the ACC.
What about Clemson. What seed will they be? Is there any chance that they won't be in the tournament?
If Miami wins the tournament, they'd have a potential 9 top 100 wins, including a potential 5 top 35 wins... and would have finished 8-12 in the ACC, any shot at a 10 or so?
Tenn. will probably keep their four seed if Kentucky's lead holds up, right?
Anonymous 2:28, do you not know how to type your name? Good point though, I guess that's the most they can do. Still, winning the Big Ten tournament would be a major achievement by a shorthanded Purdue team.
Anyone know if anouther coaches or AP poll is released before seeding is done tomorrow because there would be alot of mix up in the top 25 from Monday.
Do you guys have Kentucky locked into going to New Orleans or could they play rounds 1 and 2 in Milwaukee?
Clemson is a lock. They'll be somewhere in the 7-9 range tomorrow.
Tennessee is probably still safe on the 4 line even with a loss.
Miami also finished in last place in the ACC. They'd be a 12 or 13 if they make it.
B101, can you explain why UTEP's resume is better than VT's?
VT's wins are better than UTEP's but we think the committee will like the Miners because they won C-USA by two games and made the final.
Does Ohio St. stay on the 2 line if they lose today?
Looks like illinois will improve to 8-11 vs teams with winning records...
Oh, I didn't even mention Miami earlier.
Yes, Miami is by far better than Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, and probably Michigan and Northwestern, too.
I admit, the Big 10's bottom is truly the pits for a major conference this year, and the ACC definitely has the best bottom of any conference.
We can't see anyone falling from the 2 line.
Anonymous at 3:05:
Oh what a difference a 10-0 run and four minutes makes
I was hoping to jinx it there... Illinois FTL
and another 10-0 run...
So regardless of their profile you think Washington will be in over Minnesota and Illinois? Would this be because the chairman is the Pac-10 commish? Also B101 if URI gets blown out by temple are they officially out?
3:24, I think it's more because the Pac-10 by itself is INCREDIBLY unlikley to be a 1 bid league... The committee will throw them a bone.
Yeah i can see that to. However if they get blown out by Cal i think they should be left out
If we ignore MOD for the first 35 games, why pay attention now?
This looks pretty sound. We have Houston and Seton Hall instead of Minnesota and Washington, but the Hall is definitely our "last team in."
http://marchtoindy.blogspot.com/2010/03/state-of-bubble-nation_13.html
We agree with Will on Pac-10.
URI is done.
Are the Illini playing themselves in just by pushing this to double overtime or will the committee only care if they win?
Illinois stays in with the loss?
Taking OSU to double OT will help Illinois but they will have a sleepless night. They really need Minnesota and Mississippi State to lose now or else they are in trouble.
Not really seeing how VT gets left out without four bid-stealers. You can talk about their non-conference SOS all you want, but they played more than half of their games against the top-100 and went 9-7 in those games. If they get passed up for teams they finished ahead of in the ACC AND won the only head to head matchup (Clemson, Wake, GT) it would be the biggest hose job in the history of the 65 team field.
Apissedant... You may be right that the 4 of MSU-OSU-Purdue-Wisconsin is better than the ACC's top 4, but the rest of the leagues' teams are incomparable. The big ten is ATROCIOUS outside of the top 6.
Um, the 11th best (i.e. worst) Big Ten team won on the road at the ACC's 9th best team. That's not "incomparable".
Congrats, Matt Lion, You have found the thinnest arguement imaginable. The bottom 4 of the big ten are a combined 45-80, the bottom 4 of the ACC are 65-60.
The ACC's total is largely swayed by Miami's torrid 16-0 start.
If Purdue keeps up what it's doing right now, would a 4 or 5 seed be out of the question?
Yes, Miami is by far better than Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, and probably Michigan and Northwestern, too.
That's great, how'd they finish behind BC (who lost to Harvard), UVA (who lost at home to Penn State, amongst others), NC State (who lost to Northwestern), etc.
I'll admit, the bottom of the ACC was probably a bit more consistently competitive than the B10, but don't give me this "by far better" BS. The best conference in the country this year top-to-bottom is the Big 12. Big East would have an argument if they trimmed some of the fat at the bottom.
Does Utah State have a chance for at large?
B101, Illinois has more quality wins than Miss. State.
If Minn continues to embarrass this purdue team I hope the committee will move Purdue (RPI: 12) to a 3 seed especially if they take into account injuries.
B101, Illinois has more quality wins than Miss. State.
You hear that sucking sound?? It's the sound of the bubble squeezing as Miss St and Minnesota are up big! We expected to hear that sound a few days ago, but better late than never.
Wow. Does Purdue break double digits by half?
Utah State will get an at large before UTEP will.
Illinois definetely has more quality wins than Mississippi State, but they Illini have now lost 6 of 8 down the stretch and have an RPI in the 70s! Illinois is in big trouble.
Minnesota's beating Purdue 36-9?? Have Maroney and Barber found the end zone or what?
B101 at 5:10
way to jinx Miss st.
I don't understand how this is the same Purdue team that beat WVU, Tenn, and Wake.
One injury does not excuse this.
They should drop to 4.
This has to be embarrassing for the whole conference. I don't care if it is a team from your own conference, your #1 team should never be in this situation.
WOW, do you hear how happy they are that they broke double digits?
Isn't punishing the Illini for losing 6 of 8 down the stretch unfair when 8 of their 10 last games were against 5 seed or better tournament teams, and 9 of 10 were of teams going to the tournament?
Did any other bubble team face such a nasty stretch of games to end the season?
No way Purdue maintains 2 seed. Minnesota is the better team coming into the tournament-Iverson's play of late is like a star being born. A second round match-up for a 1-3 seed vs Minn might spell upset.
How many Utah State fans are out there today? NMSU can hang with Utah State. They split the season series this year and NMSU is riding their hard fought win over Nevada in Reno last night.
Should be a good one!
If Mississippi State hangs on against Vandy, I wouldn't be surprised if the committee decided just to put them as a 12 seed in regardless to make their job easier. I know that the committee was open about not considering the Big 12's championship game when they had it on Sunday a few years back, which is why they moved it to Saturday.
I'm not as convinced Minnesota became great as I am convinced Purdue became terrible. Minnesota just got completely embarrassed by Michigan less than two weeks ago. MICHIGAN. How do you explain that with your comments?
Even still, Purdue played a half against Minnesota without Hummel, and lost to MSU in a not glamorous but not quite embarrassing loss. What just happened?
Is there any logical explanation for this showing?
The committee just putting Mississippi State in regardless of tomorrow's game is a definite possibility. They did it with Arkansas a few years ago.
Right now I see 6 spots left for 4 teams...
Mississippi State (in with a win tomorrow)
Minnesota (in with a win tomorrow)
Washington (in with a win tonight)
Virginia Tech
Florida
Illinois
And that's assuming Utah State wins tonight. Would you agree? And how would you rank them?
Could it just come down to how well MSU plays against UK? If you compare their resume to Florida, their resume is still much better. Those 4 bad losses for MSU are killer.
I think Florida > Virginia Tech & Washington too
Nole, I'm a Gator, but I don't agree with VT > Florida. Florida has the better top 2 wins, the better road/neutral win..it's so close though
We agree Samenole...we would throw UTEP into the mix since it is conceivable that they get left out. We aren't liking Illinois chances right now.
The ACC's total is largely swayed by Miami's torrid 16-0 start.
No, the ACC's total is largely swayed by the fact that their teams are alot better. The ACC's bottom four includes a 19-12 team, a 16-16 team, and two 15-16 teams. The Big 10's bottom four includes 3 teams that, combined, have 31 wins, and 63 losses.
Did any other bubble team face such a nasty stretch of games to end the season?
Maybe not... Any other bubble team maintain a record that includes just 7 wins over teams with more wins than losses?
Of those 6... Minnesota locks up a spot as long as they keep up a large margin vs purdue, washington is in no doubt, and VT is in, as a 10 win team in the ACC. That leaves 3 teams for 1 spot, which MSU could clinch tomorrow. If not, it's florida. Sorry Illinois, next year, try and win more than 7 ballgames against even OK competition.
Yesterday, Steve Lavin congratulated McCamey on clinching a tournament bid. Did he jump the gun?
Anonymous at 6:02, and yet VT managed to lose to both Iowa and Penn St.
Nole, I'm a Gator, but I don't agree with VT > Florida. Florida has the better top 2 wins, the better road/neutral win..it's so close though
Shocker, that you don't agree here... VT is 14-6 vs BCS teams this year, they won't be left out. I think UF's loss to USA will kill them. Tourney teams don't lose to teams ranked below 200.
Sometimes you just have a bad day. Wisconsin had a bad day yesterday with bad shooting. Purdue is having that day today. Purdue beat Minnesota in Minneapolis not long ago, just like Wisconsin beat Illinois in Champaign last weekend. Both those games meant more to the winners than these games meant this weekend. Not really a big surprise. PU will get dropped for the Hummell injury, but after this one got away in teh first half what did it matter to PU anymore? They'll be fine, just like Wisconsin will. Illinois and Minnesota will be fortunate to win a game if they make the tournament.
What would Miss States conference record be if they had to play Vandy, UK, and Tennessee twice? Florida is more deserving than the Bulldogs.
Anonymous at 6:02, and yet VT managed to lose to both Iowa and Penn St...
Actually, this year, for a change, they decided to start awarding the game to whichever team had MORE points. In this case, Virginia tech had 70 to Iowa's 64, and then Outscored penn st 66-64. So I think, I THINK, that those count as wins.
You're right Anonymous 6:02 and 6:12 I was looking at the wrong page on Yahoo sports. My smart ass comment comes back to haunt me.
UTEP has 0 wins vs tournament teams
BCS teams? Virginia Tech won 3 GAMES, 3 GAMES vs decent teams in the ACC if you call GT & Wake who barely made it in DECENT. Your RPI can't be in the 50s at 10-7 in conference if you won games vs the better part of the ACC.
Florida had to play Vandy, UT, and UK a total of 6 games.
I may be looking at the wrong thing again, but I'm counting 7 wins against teams over .500 for VT and 8 wins for Illinois. Not that that's a factor.
I don't see how anyone could say VT's or Florida's resume is better than the other. If it's down to those 2 teams for the final spot it might come down to a 5-5 vote by the committee. The edge might go to VT just because the ACC has a representative on the committee (Wake's AD).
UTEP beat Houston during the regular season. So they've got 1.
I am not convinced that there will be a bid stealer from the WAC. Utah State has a poor SOS and OOC resume. The Aggies would have a tough time getting at large birth.
Nole, Have you compared Florida and Va. Tech's OOC resumes? It is not even comparable.
So, still not expecting the #2 seeds to fall off the line, eh?
Virginia Tech played a very poor pre-conference schedule besides only having to play Maryland and Duke only once. Virginia Tech could face the same fate as Penn State last year.
Apparently Clark and Jim dont know that the Gophers beat OSU w/ Evan Turner. Just putting that out there.
How big is that Campbell win looking for VT now?! Huge! They are looking good!
why is va tech even being debated? 10-6 in the #1 conference gets a bid even if the OOC was full of 300+ teams. also, stop comparing va tech to penn st last year. va tech's rpi is 34. penn st's rpi last year was 58. give it a rest.
Exactly, Derek. Nantz is too busy thinking about The Masters. Minnesota locked up a bid last night if you ask me. Today was just further proof about Tubby Smith's coaching job. This team reinvented itself as many times as Madonna has.
i meant pomeroy, not rpi, for my last post.
That is a very valid point about Virginia Tech. Their computer numbers are a lot like the 2009 Nittany Lions. The Hokies might be left out in favor of a team that played a tougher OOC schedule. Maybe VT will schedule tougher teams next year.
Anon (6:37)
How is not even comparable?
RPI
UF - 54
VT - 57
Edge: Wash
Record
UF - 21-12 (9-7 in #4 conf)
VT - 23-8 (10-6 in #3 conf)
Edge: VT
SOS
UF - 33
VT - 133
Edge: UF
vs. Top 50
UF - 3-8 (wins: #14 UT, vs. #29 MSU, #41 FSU)
VT - 3-4 (wins: #33 Clem, @#34 GT, #37 Wake
Edge: Wash... UF's wins are slightly better but they had 4 extra losses
Bad losses
UF - 3 (#94 @SCar, #105 @UGA, #212 So. Alabama)
VT - 4 (@#92 UNC, #97 Miami x2, #125 @BC)
Edge: Wash, VT has 1 extra, but UF has by far the worst (USA)
If anything I'd give a slight edge to VT.
Derek:
Minnesota also lost to Portland, Northwestern, Indiana, Miami, and Michigan twice. None of those teams are dancing. The Gopher's OOC resume is not as strong as Florida or Illinois.
VT's RPI is 56..their KP is higher because they beat down a bunch of bad teams. Kenpom is not that great when a team plays a weak over schedule.
I agree you can easily go Florida or Virginia Tech. I hope both get in.
The question is should Illinois get in over Florida & VT if you say they are about equal(VT & UF)
you all have to give it a rest comparing the bottom of the acc to the bottom of the b10. the bottom of the acc blows away the bottom of the bottom of the b10.
w/l and pomeroy for acc's bottom feeders:
Boston College 15-16, 60
NC St. 19-14, 59
NC 16-16, 63
Virginia 15-16, 75
Miami 20-12, 48
w/l and pomeroy for b10's bottom feeders:
Michigan 15-17, 62
Northwestern 20-13, 77
Iowa 10-22, 164
Indiana 10-21, 177
Penn St. 11-20, 91
iowa and indiana were exponentially worse than any acc team and penn st was just worse. there's no comparison which league had a much worse bottom.
Are you really saying Georgia is a bad loss? Vanderbilt and Illinois also lost to Georgia.. Florida played a very strong non conference schedule.
Richmond
Michigan State
Xavier
Syracuse
Florida State
Florida's SOS is 100 points better than Virginia Tech, but you say their schedules are comparable??
"Record
UF - 21-12 (9-7 in #4 conf)
VT - 23-8 (10-6 in #3 conf)
Edge: VT"
Noles,
That is deceiving because VT only had to play Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake, and FSU only once. Florida had to play Tennessee, Vandy and UK twice. The unbalanced conference schedules can skew the conference records.
The SOS advantage of 132 vs. 33 is huge for Florida over VT.
it would send a bad message to teams if Va Tech is rewarded for playing a weak non-cofnerence schedule. Teams should be rewarded for testing themselves early. Va Tech beat up on cupcakes.
Nole, good analysis.
I agree with you but the edge for VT because of UF's extra 4 losses is very minimal. VT would be projected to lose 3 of 4 if they played 2 vs UK, 1 vs UT, 1 vs Vandy, so I would give them a small, but very small edge.
I just don't like the fact that they did nothing OOC & the committee has made a point of saying that's important. Then they got the scheduling of more weak teams in the ACC.
I don't agree Miss St. should be in over Florida just yet either for the same reasons & they have 4 sub 100 losses including Rider at home.
Who keeps saying the ACC is #1? They are #3 in Sagarin & RPI the best indicators.
Craig,
Greg Anthony just said the loser of Cal-UW is not going to make it. Does he know what he's talking about?
Cihak:
Valid points and true however Illinois doesnt have as many "good wins" Gophs have beaten MSU, PU, Illinois, Butler, Wisconsin and OSU. I think people are over exaggerating the Portland loss. They were 3rd(?) in the WCC and beat St Marys. I also think the NW loss is that bad, a couple points @ NW. The other 3 are bad loses lol
"Are you really saying Georgia is a bad loss? Vanderbilt and Illinois also lost to Georgia.. Florida played a very strong non conference schedule.
Richmond
Michigan State
Xavier
Syracuse
Florida State
Florida's SOS is 100 points better than Virginia Tech, but you say their schedules are comparable??"
If Georgia's not a bad loss then neither are VT's losses to UNC, Miami, and BC. All are extremely similar to UGA. UNC beat MSU, OSU, and won @Wake so that must mean they're a great team!
Yes Florida played a tough non-conf schedule but ZERO of those 5 games you mentioned were on the road (4 of them were at home or in Florida, with the other in AC) and UF only won 2 of those 5 games. You don't get credit for losing to good teams.
I never said UF's and VT's schedules were comparable, UF's was clearly better but VT had a much better record so it offsets.
Both teams racked up wins against sub-100 teams. VT was 15-1 against sub-100 teams and UF was 13-2 against sub-100 teams.
The only reason UF's SOS is 100 points higher is because of those 5 games you mentioned, and only getting 2 wins against those 5 isn't all that impressive.
I find it hard to believe that VT wouldn't have won at least 2 of those 5 games if 4 of the 5 were in Virginia.
California and Washington's records are underwhelming.
The ACC is not the best conference in the country. Not even close. It is one good team (Duke), two decent teams (Maryland and GT), and then a bunch of average or sub par teams. All the ACC teams are going to flame out in the NCAA tourney.
pomeroy ranks the acc #1. the reason why it is ranked so highly is because it doesn't have any bad teams. if you swapped out 2 of its bottom feeders and replaced them with depaul, rutgers, iowa or indiana, it wouldn't be ranked #1. the top of the acc is very underwhelming but the middle is gigantic.
Winning 2 out of 5 from:
Richmond
Michigan State
Xavier
Syracuse
Florida State
is decent. It's not great and not bad. VT didn't give themselves a chance to do such, so how can we know how they would do. VT did just about the same as UF on the road/neutral courts(slight edge to UF).
No one can blame the committee if they choose 1 over the other. If anything, MSU should be the 1 still needing the win tomorrow. They have 4 crappy losses & a bad OOC as well.
pomeroy also ranks the ACC #1 because of beating down on bad teams, thus the differential between Sagarin & RPI. Sagarin factors in both methods moreso, so it's probably the best indicator. the ACC is #3
The 3rd ranked team in the ACC is Virginia Tech. That says all you need to know about the ACC this year.
B101, I know you didn't see a 2 see falling, but with Purdue losing big to the Gophers are they still looking good for a 2? How low could they drop?
If Washington wins & Utah St. wins it should come down to:
MSU/VT/UT IMO. SEC should probably just get 1 more bid & MSU needs to play well vs UK or Florida should get it.
I would be worried if I was MSU or VT and the committee punishes 1 of them for the weak OOC schedule.
I mean 'seed' not 'see'.
What are the chances UTEP gets left out with this craziness going on? 1 win vs a tournament team who is in the RPI 100+
I meant UF instead of UT. Typo.
Looks like a lot of people still have MSU out until they play UK & see how they do.
UTeP and the PAc10 loser should miss, that would be justice IMO
What we need is a tournament where all these mediocre teams can play each other, and we can finally find out who's best. Oh, wait, that's the NIT isn't it?
I agree & UTEP can join them to see if they can beat a bunch of decent teams in a row instead of cupcakes.
In a perfect world, the play-in game would be for the final at-large bid and a 12 or 13 seed.
B101, what seed would you say UNLV gets if they beat SDSU?
Is there any case to be made for Cal getting in the tournament? They're 1-6 versus the RPI Top 50 with their only good win being against UW at home. They have no good road wins, and their overall profile seems worse than Minnesota (more RPI Top 50 victories in the conference tournament than Cal has all year), UF (3-8 versus RPI Top 50 with a win versus a Top 15 RPI in Tennessee), and Virginia Tech (3-4 versus RPI Top 50 & an RPI Top 50 win at Georgia Tech). In a head to head comparison I can't see California being better than many of the bubble teams.
Guess we'll see if the Committee really doesn't look at conferences.
I don't agree with it, but I don't think a a season champion of a top 8 RPI conference has ever missed the tourney. I think Cal gets in.
So looks like Illinois, VT, MSU, and Florida are fighting for 2 bids assuming Utah St. wins. Am I off?
If the committee stays true to their word about SOS OOC, I think Florida & VT get unless MSU has a good showing or win VS UK.
If that happens, it's probably MSU & VT.
Also, Lunardi having VT 5 spots in front of Florida on his S curve is laughable.
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