Nothing can match the excitement level of the first Thursday of the NCAA tournament, but the Thursday of Championship Week comes pretty darn close to doing that every year. This year was no exception. There were a ton of crazy games, wild finishes, and a slew of upsets on Thursday that affected teams at the top of the bracket (Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh) as well teams fighting for their lives on the bubble (Memphis, UAB, Arizona State).Here's a quick conference-by-conference breakdown of what happened and what it means in terms of bids and seeding with just 72 hours until the Selection Show:
In the ACC...
The most important result from Greensboro on Thursday was Georgia Tech's win over North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets were the last team in our field before heading into their ACC opener - despite a 7-9 conference record - because we at least liked their chances to beat the Tar Heels. Now comes the hard part: a date with Maryland in the quarters on Friday. We aren't that confident in Georgia Tech's ability to win that game considering how the Terps have played of late, but with the bubble collapsing the way it is, it's very conceivable that a close loss is all that the Yellow Jackets need. Their wins are better than any other bubble team's wins right now, and that should push them over the top if need be. In other first round action Thursday, Wake Forest got blown out by Miami to put an exclamation point on their year-end free-fall. The Demon Deacons lost five of six down the stretch, and as a result, they are down to a 10 seed in our latest field. Clemson also suffered a head-sratching loss to N.C. State on Thursday and dropped from a 7 to an 8. Miami's win over Wake sets up a Virginia Tech-Miami quarterfinal game on Friday that Hokie fans have to love. With one more win, Virginia Tech will almost certainly be dancing.
In the Big East...
The double bye jinx was in full effect in Madison Square Garden on Thursday, as top-seeded Syracuse, second-seeded Pittsburgh, and fourth-seeded Villanova all lost. West Virginia came close to joining that list, but Da'Sean Butler's banked-in three at the buzzer gave the Mountaineers a wild 54-51 win over Cincinnati. Despite their loss, Syracuse is still safe on the 1 line because they won the regular season Big East title by two games. Pitt, meanwhile, dropped down from a 3 seed to a 4 as a result of their loss to Notre Dame. The Irish have now won six in a row and are up to an 8 seed in our latest field. That's a seed line below Marquette, which jumped up from a 9 to a 7 by beating 'Nova. The Wildcats are clinging onto the final spot on the 3 line for now, but they very well could fall to a 4 depending on how teams like Wisconsin, Georgetown, Baylor, and others do from here on out.
In the Big 12...
To say the Big 12 tournament has lacked the drama of the Big East tournament would be an understatement. The top four seeds all advanced in relatively easy fashion on Thursday, highlighted by top-seeded Kansas' win over Texas Tech. Next up for the Jayhawks is Texas A&M, which took care of Nebraska in its quarterfinal game. The other two quarterfinal games were both 19-point blowouts: Kansas State beat Oklahoma State 83-64 and Baylor beat Texas (for the third time this season) 86-67. If A&M can upset Kansas on Friday, they'll move up to the 4 line, and they would be joined there by Baylor if the Bears can get past the second-seeded Wildcats.
In the Big Ten...
All eyes are going to be on the Big Ten on Friday as Illinois and Minnesota will try to pull off upsets and play their way into the field. The Golden Gophers kept their at-large hopes alive by beating Penn State in their Big Ten opener on Thursday. Next up is a quarterfinal match-up with Michigan State. With a win, Minnesota is in. With a loss, they'll be bound for the NIT. That same mantra might also apply to Illinois, which plays Wisconsin in another quarterfinal. The Illini may just need that win to get in, but their 13 losses and poor RPI might make it necessary for them to at least play a close game against Ohio State in the semis to get in. In the two other games today, Purdue faces Northwestern and the top-seeded Buckeyes take on Michigan.
In C-USA...
The craziness of C-USA has to be right up there with the Big East results. How much money could you have made by betting we would see a Houston-Southern Miss semifinal? UAB's late season collapse is now complete after they got absolutely blown out by Southern Mississippi and Memphis lost any hope they had of snatching an at large bid dropping a heart-breaker to Houston (on of all things a double-dribble call). We're still going to play the odds and say that there has to be a bid-stealer out there somewhere, and we put Tulsa in today's bracket as the auto bid as a result. The Golden Hurricane play UTEP on Friday, and we think they have a good chance to win since the game is in their backyard.
In the MWC...
Things went perfectly for the MWC on Thursday. The top four seeds moved on, UNLV wrapped up its bid with a win over Utah, and San Diego State hung on to beat Colorado State. At this point, three bids is a lock and four bids looks like a safe bet. SDSU would be a lock if they beat New Mexico in the semis, but they should be in good shape with a close loss. as well. If the Aztecs do suffer a blowout loss, and ifbubble teams in the SEC, Big Ten, and A-10 step up, then the Aztecs could get snubbed again. We'll be the first to admit that we didn't see things developing the way they have over the past few weeks to enable the MWC to get four bids.
In the Pac-10...
So much for that elimination game between Washington and Arizona State. The Sun Devils didn't hold up their end of the deal by losing to Stanford. There are two things that we know about the Pac-10 right now: Cal is a lock and Washington is the only other team with at-large hopes. What we don't know is whether there will be one, two, or three teams from the Pac-10 dancing. If Washington were to lose to Stanford and if Cal wins the tourney then it would still be possible for the league to get one bid (that's unlikely). The most likely scenario is for Washington and Cal to both win their semifinal games, and then for both teams to get in regardless of who wins the title. Another possible scenario would be for UCLA to beat Cal and then beat Washington in the final. The league would then get three bids as the Huskies would grab one of the final at-large bids because of their two Top 25 wins.
In the SEC...
There were no big surprises on the first day of the SEC tourney. Florida avoided a bad loss by beating Auburn, so they should now be safe. Tennseess was able to take down LSU, which is good for Mississippi since they need a big conference win to secure their bid. Friday should be a very interesting day in the SEC. Mississippi and Mississippi State will both be fighting for their tourney lives. Also, Vanderbilt and Tennessee have great opportunities to improve their seeds with a run to the final or by winning the whole thing.
Elsewhere, Utah State beat Boise State to advance to the WAC semis, there they will face Louisiana Tech. In the MAC, top-seeded Kent State was upset by Ohio 81-64. The Golden Flashes are not at-large worthy and have been replaced in the bracket by Akron - a 98-87 winner over Eastern Michigan in double OT.
The Breakdown
Last Four In
San Diego State, Washington, Georgia Tech, Mississippi
Last Four Out
Illinois, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Mississippi State
Next Four Out
South Florida, Arizona State, Saint Louis, Memphis
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State
A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East - Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Big West - UC-Santa Barbara
Colonial - Old Dominion
Conference USA - Tulsa, UTEP
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Cornell
MAAC - Siena
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Morgan State
MVC - Northern Iowa
MWC - New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State
Northeast - Robert Morris
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Pac-10 - California, Washington
Patriot - Lehigh
SEC - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi
Southern - Wofford
Southland - Sam Houston State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - North Texas
SWAC - Arkansas-Pine Bluff
WAC - Utah State
WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
The 2s
Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State
The 3s
New Mexico, Temple, Michigan State, Villanova
The 4s
Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Maryland
The 5s
Baylor, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Butler
The 6s
Texas A&M, Xavier, BYU, Richmond
The 7s
Gonzaga, Florida State, Texas, Marquette
The 8s
Notre Dame, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Clemson
The 9s
Missouri, California, UNLV, Utah State
The 10s
Wake Forest, Louisville, St. Mary's, Old Dominion
The 11s
UTEP, Florida, Virginia Tech, Cornell
The 12s
Siena, San Diego State, Washington, Georgia Tech
The 13s
Mississippi, Tulsa, Murray State, Oakland
The 14s
Akron, Wofford, UC-Santa Barbara, Montana
The 15s
Sam Houston State, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont
The 16s
East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Play-In Game), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
113 comments:
I don't see Duke getting the final #1 seed over West Virginia. WVU has played a much tougher schedule SOS-2, and has more top 25 wins in the toughest basketball conference in the country. If WVU wins the Big East tournament, this debate will be over!
Obviously there are scenarios where both Illinois and Minnesota make it in. But in your opinion what are the chances of that happening? do you think one of them has to win the conference tournnament in order for both to be in?
3 is much tougher than 7(their SoS changed by facing Cincy and losses by other BE teams)? I do agree that WVU has a shot at the final #1 seed, but WVU still has a tougher road to go in the Big East than Duke has to go in the ACC.
As for a question, what do you think of Onuaku's injury for Syracuse. Do you think the committee will penalize them for it as they have in the past, even though they won't play another game, if Onuaku's prognosis is bad?
To correct something you said about Tulsa, the C-USA tournament is in Tulsa but it is not on their home floor. It is at the BOK Center, the C-USA Women's tournament is being played on Tulsa's home floor.
I don't believe that Onuaku's injury(even if it's serious,and let's pray it's not) would be as damaging to Syracuse as Ribbie Hummel's is to Purdue. Syracuse relies heavily on Onuaku, no doubt. However, Hummell was pretty much single handidly carrying the load for Purdue and that's not the case for Syracuse.
Having said that though, I don't believe that Syracuse's number 1 seed is still as safe as everyone else seems to though. Not because of the injury as much as losing their final 2 regular season games. If the two losses would have been buzzer beaters or it just would have been 1 loss, either one I think they would have been fine. But losing both games by multiple posessions and losing to Louisville by double digits, I believe is going to concern the selection committee more then people realize.
WVU gets a beatdown from Purdue and barely scrapes by OSU without Turner. Only East coast logic gets WVU the #1 over either if they win out. As for winning the Big East - who's left to beat? Losing Hummel is tough to overcome - but they have All Conference 1st teamer in Moore, 2nd team in Johnson and Defensive POY in Kramer. If they win the BTT Purdue gets a #1.Purdue has one, count em, one bad loss to Northwestern. The other three are to OSU,MSU and Wisc all projected to be #3 seed or better.
I think if WVU ends up winning the conference tournament, and duke wins the ACC tourney, Duke retains the 1 seed because of the fact that Duke won their conference, has a higher RPI, and more top 50 wins.
Is FSU reaching the semi's over Nc. State an accomplishment worthy of being moved up a spot to a six on your bracket tomorrow? Furthermore, if they beat GT in the Semi's, who they've beaten twice, and VT in the final, who they've beaten already, does the championship really help their case for a 4-5 seed all that much>?
Ohio State does NOT deserve a 1 seed. No way, shape, or form. Their hardest stretch of the season happened to coincide with the injury to turner, so they are being given a ton of credit, but they probably lose both the wisconsin and MSU games with turner in the lineup.
there's no chance taht wvu gets a #1 over duke. the committee doesn't give 2 bids to the same conference unless the 2 teams were dominating OOC (eg, duke and unc in past years). a team that finished 2 games out of 1st in its conference and that got blown out against purdue hardly was dominating OOC. purdue and ohio st are the only only teams that could grab the last #1 if duke loses today or tomorrow.
also, how is the 2nd hardest schedule "much tougher" than the 4th hardest schedule? give me a break.
West Virginia beat Ohio State WITH Evan Turner and their worst loss was Notre Dame.
really? losing to 8 seed ND was worse than losing to NIT bound Uconn? getting blown out by purdue was worse than both because purdue is a 1 seed worthy team and ND/UConn are not and it shows that wvu isn't 1 seed material.
What exactly makes Texas A@M ranked 24th in the polls and a 6 seed in the tournament? They're 1 and 5 against currently ranked teams. Their Minnesota, Clemson, and Texas wins may have looked good at the time, but obviously aren't worth much in retrospect.
Shouldn't a top 25 team have a better than 17% record against other top 25 teams? Is there any other top 25 team with such a poor record against other top 25 teams?
FSU will still be a 7 tomorrow even with a win over N.C. State. A win over the Wolfpack doesn't do much for their profile.
Texas A&M is worthy of a 6 seed because of their 11-5 Big XII record, their five Top 50 wins, their 9-2 finish, and their 12 RPI. Their ranking in the polls (24) will also help them be right around the 6 line.
If FSU beats NC State tonight, do you jump them over gonzaga and someone into the 6-seed hole? If not, would a win over GT do it? Would wins over NC. State, Maryland, and Duke lead to you moving them up to a 4 seed? If FSU beats Duke in the final, and WVU wins the BE tourney, Does WVU get the top seed over Duke?
If both Duke and WVU win their conference tournaments, Duke will get the final 1 seed. If Duke loses in the final and WVU wins the Big East, we still think Duke has the edge because the Mountaineers finished two games back in the Big East while Duke won a share of the ACC regular season title.
Tulsa is not playing on their home floor. They are playing at the new downtown arena. But don't forget that UTEP did bear Tulas at their home arena. Just because Tulsa is in their hometown, it doesn't ensure a win. UTEP is the better team and it will take an upset from Tulsa.
b101,
What kind of chance does Utah State have at an at large? Who do you like in the WAC tournament?
We meant hometown for Tulsa (or "backyard," take your pick.) It's been fixed.
We really like Utah State to win the WAC tourney. If they lose in the final, though, we think they're going to get an at-large. We felt that way heading into this week, and the lack of bid stealers has only strengthened our belief that the Aggies will get an-large if they need it.
I actually think Stanford has a better shot at an upset than UCLA. Landry Fields is capable of leading the Cardinal to another big win.
Utah State has 2 wins over top 50 teams, one of which is not going to the tournament, and 3 losses to teams that will not be making an appearance in the tourney... Aside from a very good record, I don't see the case being strong at all.
How could they justify giving Utah St. a bid over William and Mary? William & Mary beat Maryland and Wake Forest on the road and Richmond. Utah State just beat BYU at home and played a weak OOC schedule. William & Mary seems more deserving than Utah St. Winning on the road in college basketball is very tough. It would be refreshing to see William & Mary rewarded for beating 2 ACC teams on the road.
I understand that based on the RPI and the rankings A&M is a 6 seed, but I think the ranking is inflated and the RPI is computed poorly. The teams closest to them in RPI are Purdue, Temple, and Villanova, who have 4-3, 1-2, and 3-5 records against top 25 teams. All have better overall records also. Yes, you, and everyone else projects these teams with higher seeding as a result, but shouldn't the RPI be more in line with rankings and seeding if it is going to be taken seriously?
Is there any chance Wake gets snubbed after their poor finish to the season? Can you guys see any way Arizona State gets in with that lackluster overall resume? Memphis has a lot more quality wins than the Sun Devils.
Oh, and Butler for that matter, with a far better overall record and a 1-1 record against top 25 teams. Temple and Purdue also had to deal with major injuries to key players that led to several of their losses.
Clarify something for me. You've got Illinois listed ahead of Minnesota in the "Last Teams Out" list, but suggest in your commentary that Minnesota would be in with a win today, but Illinois needs more. Are you implying that Illinois simply has a better chance of winning? If the season ended right now, which team would have a better chance of getting in? Thanks.
James G., if I understand correctly William & Mary is left out because they failed to win in a one-bid league. William and Mary does have the good wins but they also have three really bad losses. Also the RPI ranking for them is in the high 50's.
Utah State on the other hand is projected to win the auto-bid in the WAC. Utah State's OOC schedule is irrelevant if they win the conference tournament. If they lose in the conference tournament they are probably out as well.
Keith, No B101 said they think Utah State would get an at large if they don't win the WAC.
There is no way Georgetown is not a 3 seed with their profile right now...especially with a win tonight
"Memphis has a lot more quality wins than the Sun Devils."
please list ONE quality win by memphis.
"Blogger Brycenle said...
I don't believe that Onuaku's injury(even if it's serious,and let's pray it's not) would be as damaging to Syracuse as Ribbie Hummel's is to Purdue. Syracuse relies heavily on Onuaku, no doubt. However, Hummell was pretty much single handidly carrying the load for Purdue and that's not the case for Syracuse. "
Single handedly carrying the load? He's not even Purdue's leading scorer(that would be Moore), Their leading rebounder(that would be Johnson), their leader in rebounds(that would again be Johnson).
Hummel is no doubt important to Purdue, he was a glue guy, but if you'd have watched the games the won without him(most of the Minnesota game, Penn State and Indiana), you'd see that Keaton Grant and Chris Kramer more than made up for the scoring of Robbie.
Yes, Purdue lost to a desperate MSU team without Hummel, but they weren't exactly blown out, still forced over 20 turnovers, and only lost because of an anemic shooting night where literally nothing dropped, even wide open shots, they shouldn't be written off just because of one bad shooting night.
Mag... ASU has THREE top 100 wins.
0 isn't > 0.
I agree that Georgetown is probably on the 3 line. Both Palm and the Sporting News have them there today. We'll see how Lunardi reacts after putting them on the 6 line yesterday.
With an RPI of 9 and now only 2 losses outside the RPI top 50 (ND & Marq. moved into the top 50 yesterday) and with the highest # of RPI top 25 wins (6 -- tied with Kansas), I just don't see how they aren't on the 3 line.
I had a question about the Atlantic 14. Can anyone besides the top 3 get at large bid? What if Rhode Island or St. Louis make the championship game?
mag 900,
Jerry Palm was on Courtside and said Memphis had 6 more top 100 wins than ASU. Maybe he was mistaken.
If Georgetown wins tonight, they'll be a 3 seed.
If URI or Saint Louis make the A-10 final, they would be right in the mix for one of the last couple at-larges. A-10 fans will want to root for Illinois and Minnesota to lose today to make a four-bid A-10 a stronger possibility.
Illinois has a better resume than Minnesota if the season ended today. We have the Illini ahead looking ahead too, because we think they have a (slightly) better chance to beat Wisconsin than Minnesota does to beat Michigan State.
no, i think that you are mistaken. top 100 wins do not = quality wins. do you really think that beating the 90th ranked team is a "quality" win? do you really need me to explain this to you?
i agree that Memphis has a better chance than Arizona State. Here are the records against the top 100.
ASU- 3-7
Memphis- 7-5
My guess is neither of these teams will get in. How does B101 feel?
Big Ten fan here. Love the site folks. Is Illinois a lock with a victory over Wisconsin? How far does Minnesota need to advance to be a lock?
Could margin of loss be a factor in the committee's decision? Like for example,if Georgia Tech lost by 20 to Maryland tonight. Would that really hurt the Jackets? How safe is GT in your bracket?
MSU (who have they beaten?) and Villanova (4-6 in last 10) as 3 seeds over Wisconsin and Maryland? Georgetown a 3 seed with a win over MU, even though they have 9 losses! Explain yourself bracketology 101!
Villanova did beat Maryland head to head in Terps backyard. Nova also plays in a tougher conference than Maryland. Maryland's OOC resume leaves a lot to be desired.
Mag,
Where are all the "quality" wins for ASU?
Arizona State has two good wins - Washington and San Diego State - but both of those came at home.
Neither ASU or Memphis is going to get an at-large.
Illinois needs to beat Wisconsin and play a close game against Ohio State to be in the mix for an at-large. If Minnesota beat Michigan State today, they'll probably be in our field tomorrow.
A blowout loss would definitely hurt Georgia Tech's chances.
We like the Spartans' chances to make the Big Ten final better than we like the Badgers' chances, so that's why they are still ahead on the S-surve. Villanova is ahead of Maryland because of their head-to-head neutral court victory and their more impressive OOC resume.
Georgetown has a lot of losses for a typical 3/4 seed, but they've played the toughest schedule in the country (they have the No. 1 SOS) and they have six wins over the RPI Top 25. That's tied with Kansas for the most in the country.
I noticed Seton Hall is still your 3rd team out. If Illinois, Ole Miss and Minnesota lose, and UTEP wins their conference, what would there odds be of getting in?
Is Notre Dame's recent winning streak putting them into the top 50RPI helping them so that they would then have 4 top 50 RPI wins (pitt, cornell, louisville, ND) and not a single bad loss?
Wisconsin > MSU
MSU
RPI 24
2-2 vs Top 25
3-4 vs Top 50!
Wisconsin
RPI 15
4-2 vs Top 25
6-4 vs Top 50
Michigan State's only bad loss is to UNC, and that was prior to UNC's complete and total meltdown. Yes, they were never as good as people thought at the beginning of the season, but it is hard to argue UNC hasn't gotten worse.
Wisconsin has losses to Minnesota, Illinois, and GREEN FREAKING BAY.
Wisconsin is 1-1 against Illinois, who they face tonight.
MSU is 2-0 against Minnesota, who they face tonight.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to do the math.
3 of MSU's losses came with an injured star player. What exactly is your argument?
i thought after the laettner play in 1992, everyone knows to guard the ball being inbounded? what was the point of sticking a guy under your basket on the opposite side of the court with only 2 seconds left? that was some seriously horrible coaching.
UNC didn't get worse. They just got into the meat of their schedule in the ACC.
Yeah Texas A&M is 1-5 against top 25 teams....but who are those 5 losses to? (RPI)
#1 Kansas
# 4 WVU
# 6 KSU
#7 Baylor
# 8 New Mexico
beat # 7 Baylor
I'd like to see other teams records against the top 8, not just the top 25
Here's Purdue:
1-0 beat WVU
Temple:
0-1, lost to Kansas
Nova:
1-1, split with WVU
You're arbitrary # of 25 teams is misleading.
also,
the KU loss was in College Station, the other 4 were either road or neutral games.
and their worst loss is @ Washington (predicted RPI 39), when the best defender in the big12 snapped his leg in half.
There's not a blemish on their resume, the only thing lacking is a "Huge" win. If they get that tonight in a defacto road game vs Kansas, they're a 4 seed AT WORST!
Umm...
Wisconsin has wins over OSU, MSU (without John Leuer), PUR (with Hummel), Duke, Maryland and Marquette.
MSU beat PUR (without Hummel), WIS, Gonzaga, and...
The Badgers went 6-3 without their best player, Leuer, and absolutely destroyed MSU playing without him 67-49.
Take the name off the jerseys and put their resumes up side-by-side and there's no comparison.
Wisconsin has only played 1 game against the top 8 teams, and to their credit, the beat Duke.
beating #2 Duke > losign to #1 KU
adv Wisc.
they went 1-1 vs #11 Purdue
A&M went 1-1 vs #7 Baylor
slight adv A&M
Wisc was 1-1 vs #24 Mich St.
A&M was 1-1 vs #28 Okie St.
slight adv Wis
Wisc was 1-1 vs #26 tOSU
A&M was 1-1 vs #29 texas
slight adv Wisc
Wisc has losses to #108, #78, and #73
A&M's worst 3 losses are #52, #29, and #28
Major Adv to A&M
Take off your big Televen blinders and give this team their due.
Good case, but I think the comparison was between Wisconsin and Michigan State though, not A&M
it's hard to tell who's talking to who with all the anonymous postings......lol.
Wisonsin has a much, MUCH, better resume than Mich St.
both share wins over #11 Purdue, but that's Mich St's best win.
Wisc played much stonger SOS too.
Then why is Wisconsin currently losing to Illinois at the half?
And your "top 8" is just as arbitrary, since it just barely keeps Temple's win over Nova out of the picture, which would make them 1-1.
I use top 25 because there are two different voting systems that determine top 25.
Again I dislike the RPI and pretty much all computer based rating systems. They don't view injuries, and they don't look at margins of victories, they give far too much weight to home/away status. Losing by 50 to the number 1 team is less harmful than losing by 1 to the number 2 team in overtime. Beating the number 8 team by 30 doesn't look as good as beating the number 7 team by 1 in triple overtime. How does that make any sense?
Sorry for using anonymous earlier. I don't have my password saved on this computer and I haven't typed it in in 2 years. I forgot it. My bad.
Illinois is shooting lights out right now, 65%. While Wisc is only shooting 19%. And they're only down by 9.
As for UNC not getting worse, are you attempting to argue that OSU and MSU are worse than UVA and BC? Are you claiming that Va Tech is as good as Syracuse?
Talk about a conference bias. If you haven't forgotten, the ACC lost the Big Ten/ACC challenge this year. Sure, they only won by 1 game, and the challenge is not always properly matched... but it would be insane to argue that 2 of the 3 best teams in the Big Ten are worse than 2 of the worst 4 teams in the ACC.
UNC played alright at the beginning of the year. They were no where near as good as their ranking suggested. They became much, much worse as the year progressed.
It can be argued that UConn sucked all year long, and we just didn't know it at first. Their performance was sporadic and it was never clear whether the team that beat WVU and Nova was going to show up, or the team that lost to Michigan and SJU.
On the other hand UNC didn't lose to a single non-tournament bound team prior to January 1st, and had 2 victories over teams with a 4 seed or better. After January 11th they only beat one tournament bound team, and it was 10th seeded Wake Forest, who just got embarrassed by non-tournament bound Miami.
The winning team almost always has a higher shot percentage. It isn't luck, it's called DEFENSE. It is actually half of the game. Ask Temple, it's the only reason they're a possible 3 seed. God knows their offense isn't good enough to compete with Georgetown or Villanova, but holding them to their lowest point totals of the season sure evens the odds.
Is Illinois in the tournament now? This was an epicly bad performance by Wisconsin.
That might have been the worst defended 2.2 seconds I have ever seen. My high school coach could have done better.
Dude, I was just answering your question as to why they were losing.
Jeff, the question was semi-rhetorical... and in response to the idea that MSU is worse than Wisconsin, or that the odds of MSU losing to Minnesota were higher than the odds of Wisconsin losing to Illinois.
Shot percentage isn't an appropriate excuse for losing a game your fans claim is in the bag.
Tulsa?
Respectfully, what are you guys smoking?
Washington and Mississippi have very weak resumes, as well.
Here is our lengthier Bubble analysis as of 2 pm this afternoon: http://marchtoindy.blogspot.com/2010/03/state-of-bubble-nation-state-fright.html
We replace Tulsa, Ole Miss, and Washington with Seton Hall, Rhode Island, and Dayton.
B101 is predicting Tulsa winning the CUSA title Shankar. Feel free to read the words on the page.
Shankar, you believe Seton Hall is in the tourny? I actually agree. When looking at their resume, it is definitely better than some of the other bubble teams.
While you're right that shot percentage isn't an excuse, the idea that the defense must be responsible for a bad shooting day isn't completely true either. Obviously sometimes it is (I asked Temple).
Regardless of how good a shooter, or how 'clutch' you are, you're going to have good days and bad days, irrespecitve of the defense.
Anon (at 4:06):
Thanks for pointing out my stupidity. It occurred to me that this might be the case, so I went back and checked and came back here to say my mea culpas.
URI 63-47 over St. Louis. Does that change your bracket or do you subscribe to conventional wisdom that says URI has to beat Temple in A-10 semis to secure at-large bid?
Well Tulsa is down 10 at halftime, those last 4 out are still smiling. And Mississippi is starting to slip against Tennessee. Maybe instead of expanding the NCAA should retract the tourney.
And how about the NIT field? They have to be cringing too with 8 automatic bids already (Kent State, Weber State, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Quinnipiac, Jacksonville, Stony Brook, and Jackson State). Ouch
Uggh... I can't believe we'd even think about allowing illinois admittance to the big dance with 14 losses... Illinois has SEVEN wins ALL SEASON vs teams with a winning record. SEVEN. And 2 of them were Wisconsin without leuer and MSU without lucas. So they have FIVE wins vs Teams above .500 who also weren't missing their best player.
Team has 7 wins vs teams with winning records, and 14 losses= 6 seed in the NIT.
The A-sun was a 4 way tie, with Lipscomb being awarded the 1 seed, I think they would go.
Illinois is dancing. 5 wins vs top 25. Keep it close vs Ohio State and they would be a scary matchup as a 12 seed.
Anon (at 5:11): Last year, Arizona had 10 wins against winning teams and 13 losses. They got in because of their 6 top 50 wins. Illinois is in a very similar position among a generally weaker Bubble field. Things are looking up for them.
I was thinking about this tournament realignment last night... some of the complaints are related to all the D1 conferences that make no effort to improve or schedule quality opponents (MEAC, SWAC, etc). I think we should figure out a way to swap out four conferences a year with D2, lighting a fire under the asses of the lazier D1 conferences and rewarding the upper echelon D2 conferences. It will never happen but is interesting in theory.
Illinois has 5 wins against the Top 25. 2 games being on the road and 1 being on a neutral court. They also whipped Wofford earlier this year so they have 6 victories over teams that will be in the Tournament. All the other bubble teams have 0-3 top 25 victories and none of them coming in true away games like Illinois. Almost every bubble team has lost their must win games in their Conference tournament except Illinois. They all lost to weaker teams than Wisconsin to. Illinois earned their bid today
Wisconsin made me look bad today.
Illinois showed today that they should be included
How safe is Va Tech?
VA Tech is not too safe but they might sneak in. Id say last four in.
Virginia Tech's best asset is that no-one outside the field has tried to make their way in, except perhaps Illinois and Rhode Island to the extent they were out before. I think they basically hold around 11.
Illinois will be in our bracket tomorrow.
Virginia Tech will be in as well, thanks in large part to the fact that there STILL have been no true bid-stealers yet. With UTEP and and Utah State looking solid in the C-USA and WAC tourneys, we may go through an entire Championship Week without a mid-major bid stealer. Coming into this week, we would have put the chances at that happening at zero.
We might have URI in our bracket tomorrow, but a lot still depends on what happens the rest of the night. The Rams' win over Saint Louis was certainly convincing in terms of the margain of victory, but it was still a win over a team that's not tourney-caliber. There still isn't a lot of "wow" on URI's overall resume. The question is, is "wow" even necessary this year?
If Rhode Island doesn't beat Temple tomorrow, they should not be in. A win on a neutral court over a team with an RPI in the 80's is nothing significant. If it was, Seton Hall would be able to preach their wire to wire win at #78 St. John's. Rhode Island should not get in ahead of them, as well as others on the bubble.
you got any sleepers this year?
URI needs to win over Temple to be looking good for a bid. If they lose tomorrow they will be squarely on the bubble and they will probably get left out in the end.
Jeff,
I'm impressed. It takes a big man to admit when he's wrong. If it makes you feel any better, UConn made me look retarded last week. I still don't get how UConn can be as consistently inconsistent as they were this season. I'd say they're a shoe in to win the NIT, except for their exceptional ability to throw away easy wins.
I think I'd bet on URI or Seton Hall in the NIT based on their consistency throughout the year. Both have consistently beat bad teams, and consistently lost to good teams. No good teams will be in the NIT, so their odds should be good.
Oh, and back to A&M, Baylor is in the top 8 in the RPI. Any ranking that requires PEOPLE to make a LOGICAL decision, has them ranked at best 20th. This is logical, since their best win is A&M. Their only good out of conference game is a win over sometimes ranked Xavier. They were soundly defeated by the only two good teams in the Big 12.
Considering A@M to be a 6 seed based on a 1-1 record against another team that can only claim to be a good team because of their 1-1 record against A&M is circular logic.
Baylor did go 3-0 against Texas, so saying they're the 20th best team in the country may be fair. However splitting games with A&M, losing to OKST and Colorado, and only having a single victory over a mediocre team to brag about prevents any sane person from claiming them to be 7th in the country.
There's a good reason no tv station lists the RPI ranking next to the team name during sports games. They DO list rankings by the coaches and the AP.
Ouch. Epic fail from Dayton. Leading almost the whole game, lose the lead, and then after they call a TO down 2 with a chance to tie/lead one of their players takes a swing at a Xavier player in retaliation for something. Ejection, technical foul, game.
Welcome to the NIT.
you guys got any sleepers to make a run this year?
One team that I think could be a major sleeper this year is Oklahoma State. James Anderson is a legitimate star, and when he's on, Oklahoma State can keep up with anybody.
I would again like to state that UNM is terribly over-rated, along with their entire conference. SDSU now has a grand total of two good wins for the entire season... both of them over UNM. UNM has one win over SDSU.... in overtime. UNM's only good OOC win... Texas A&M, who just got man-handled by KSU for the second time. UNM's other quality win... over BYU, who has a grand total of 0 OOC wins.
An entire conference that is only thought of as a quality conference because of the rankings of the other teams in their conference. They've never been tested and they'll all fall flat on their face in the tournament.
Oh, and Lunardi is still a moron for thinking UNM would get a 2 seed. idiot.
B101, can we please treat Mich St according to their resume now and give them the 6 seed (maybe 7 seed) their resume deserves.
8-8 vs RPI top 100
3-4 vs RPI top 50
apissedant.....you just described the ACC.
How close is Minnesota?
excuse me, 0 QUALITY OOC wins.
After that pathetic performance vs. NC State, is there any possible way FSU can avoid playing in the dreaded 8-9 game? I'm praying we fall to a 10, please tell me there's a chance.
Eat That biznatches. Minnesota Baby!
Utah State. In even with a loss in tourney final?
OSU is going to make a #7 seed's dream come true.
They're still the same team that lost to Siena in Dayton last year.
Anonymous,
You make a good point. I didn't realize how bad the ACC was this year until I just checked the top 4 team OOC records.
Sadly only UNC and Wake Forest have an OOC record worth mentioning. However, SOMEONE in their conference did something against good teams from other conferences, so it still places them above the MWC.
OK, now I can admit I was wrong. I didn't see MSU getting beat by Minnesota.
Well I did think the Big 10 was seeded too high. This should knock MSU and Wisconsin down to 4 and 5 seeds.
As for knocking them down to 7.... are you smoking crack? Look at all the other guys that lost, UNM, Baylor, Villanova, Pitt.... many of whom *cough*UNM&Baylor*cough* have even worse records and have played fewer good teams. They'll all drop a seed, but without a better team to move up in front... you can't knock them back too far.
I'm a Temple fan, but the fact that Temple is going to be the top 3 seed tomorrow is disturbing. I like them, and they play well when they're all healthy and they click, but I don't see them as just outside Elite 8 material. The talent pool is shallow this year. Either that or it is just spread more equally than most years.
All the teams you mentioned have substantially better resumes than Mich St. Their computer numbers are all significantly better than Mich St's also.
UNM: 6-3 vs RPI top 50 (11-3 vs top 100)
Nova: 8-6 vs RPI top 50 (14-7 vs top 100)
Baylor: 8-6 vs RPI top 50 (13-6 vs top 100)
Pitt: 7-5 vs RPI top 50 (13-7 vs top 100)
Here is Mich St again: 3-4 vs RPI top 50 (8-8 vs top 100)
Now, one of the above is not like the others. If you're honestly ranking teams on what they've done, and not on potential or previous years tournament successes, there is no way Mich St is a protected seed.
When are all you going to realise that RPI is BS? The Committee knows it. Conferences stack. Which is the biggest conference?
And do you think for a moment that the big east is going to vote for its best competition? I live in New Mexico. How do you think that team, San Diego, or any other would fare in a real conference? They'd be like Michigan or Northwestern. Are we judging quality here, or some people's conception of their best chance to win? This is a competition people, and all stops are out. Don't think for a moment that any team west of Minnesota deserves to be in the dance. That's crap. Deal with it.
What if Duke wins the ACC tourney by going through UVA, Miami, and NC State? Even though they win the tourney, are they hurt by the fact they didn't beat any team higher than RPI #96? Would West Virginia move ahead of them by winning the BE tourney in this scenario?
Reply to Anon 146AM:
The Big East is the biggest conference and I believe the most powerful one this year. That's why I believe West Virginia will get the final #1 seed if the win the tournament finals tonight against Georgetown. It doesn't really matter though because they will either be the last #1 or the first 2 seed if they win based on the S curve. That will having the same two teams playing in the elite 8, the way the S curve is set up anyways by the selection committee.
If Illinois seriously gets into the field, I will laugh my A** off and have no faith in the committee. They shouldn't even be in the convo of being in the tourney. 6-11 against top 100 teams in the RPI. 2-6 in their last 8 games.
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