Thursday, March 11, 2010

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 11

All eyes were on the Big East tournament on Wednesday, but the league's two most interesting bubble teams didn't offer much excitement. South Florida was down double-digits at the half and eventually lost by 20 to Georgetown, and Seton Hall scored just 21 points and shot 34 percent from the field in a 68-56 loss to Notre Dame. Luke Harangody had 20 points and 10 rebounds in the win for the Irish, who have now won five in a row to move up to a 9 seed in our latest bracket. South Florida and Seton Hall, meanwhile, saw their bubbles officially burst as a result of their losses, and they fell to the Next Four Out and Last Four Out lists, respectively.

South Florida's loss, in terms of our bracket, was Georgia Tech's gain. The Yellow Jackets were the first team out of our field, and now they're the last team in. They're on the bottom of the 11 line in today's bracket for grouping purposes - they had to be bumped up from a 12.

In other Big East second round games, Marquette held off St. John's and Cincinnati knocked off Louisville. The Cardinals dropped from a 9 seed to a 10 as a result.

The biggest upset of the day came in the first round of the Big XII tournament where Nebraska, which won a grand total of two conference games all year, knocked off Missouri, 75-60. The Tigers fell from a 7 seed to the bottom of the 8 line as a result of the loss. In other Big XII first round games of note, Oklahoma State blew out Oklahoma and Texas beat Iowa State.

There were two more automatic bids given out Wednesday as well. Robert Morris won the Northeast automatic by beating top-seeded Quinnipiac on the Bobcats' home floor, and Montana - thanks to a ridiculous 42-point performance from Anthony Johnson - erased a 20-point halftime deficit to win the Big Sky final over Weber State. Johnson scored Montana's last 21 points to lead the Grizzlies back to the NCAA tournament for the first time 2006.

The only other notable result of the night was Jackson State's stunning loss in the quarterfinals of the SWAC tournament. The top-seeded Tigers were 17-1 in conference during the regular season, but lost 65-57 to eighth-seeded Grambling State, which had won a whopping six games all season coming in.

The Breakdown
Last Four In
San Diego State, Washington, Mississippi, Georgia Tech

Last Four Out
Illinois, Arizona State, Minnesota, Seton Hall

Next Four Out
South Florida, Mississippi State, Saint Louis, UAB

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), MWC (4), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), Pac-10 (2), WCC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10
- Temple, Xavier, Richmond

Big East - Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State

Big West - UC-Santa Barbara

Colonial - Old Dominion

Conference USA
- Memphis, UTEP

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena


MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Northern Iowa

MWC - New Mexico, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10
- California, Washington

Patriot - Lehigh

SEC - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Mississippi

Southern - Wofford

Southland
- Sam Houston State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - North Texas

SWAC
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

The 2s
Purdue, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kansas State

The 3s
Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, Pittsburgh

The 4s
Michigan State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Tennessee

The 5s
Baylor, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Butler

The 6s
Texas A&M, Xavier, BYU, Richmond

The 7s
Gonzaga, Texas, Clemson, Oklahoma State

The 8s
Florida State, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest, Missouri

The 9s
Marquette, California, UNLV, Notre Dame

The 10s
Louisville, St. Mary's, Utah State, Old Dominion

The 11s
UTEP, Florida, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

The 12s
Cornell, Siena,
San Diego State, Washington

The 13s
Mississippi, Memphis, Kent State, Murray State

The 14s
Oakland, Wofford,
UC-Santa Barbara, Montana

The 15s
Sam Houston State, Morgan State, North Texas, Vermont

The 16s
East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Robert Morris, Lehigh (Play-In Game), Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)













Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

66 comments:

SMA said...

Hey guys, Andy Glockner says that Louisville has a long wait til Selection Sunday. The two RPI top 50 wins (although against Cuse) isn't great, but I'm just wondering if you can envision ANY scenario whatsoever where the Cardinals miss out. I know you have them as a lock, but pardon me for being slightly paranoid after that second half disaster tonight. Thanks.

Bracketology 101 said...

You can back off the ledge, SMA. Louisville's seed dropped a line as a result of their loss to Cincinnati, but they're still in the field and we don't see any scenario where they get left out. An 11-7 Big East record and a season sweep of Syracuse looks pretty solid to us.

Joe said...

Anyway my Irish can avoid that dreaded 8/9 seed line?

If we lose to Pitt could we drop to 10? What would it take for us to get up to a 7, Big East semis?

I know there are a lot of factors outside of Notre Dame winning or losing, I was just wondering what your ballpark estimate was.

Bracketology 101 said...

To guarantee ND climbing all the way to a 7 they would need to make a run to the Big East final. A win over Pitt probably wouldn't be quite enough to get them there, although you never know how much weight the committee will put on the way they finished the season.

Geoff said...

How close is Cincy to your last four out? If they pull another upset over WVa, do they move up much?

Anonymous said...

Oklahoma state wins a game against a non-top 100 team, and jumps FSU?

Anonymous said...

B101, is the tournament looking to include the 34 BEST non-auto-bid teams, or the 34 most ACCOMPLISHED?

Dave said...

Back to Illinois again. Are they your first team out? I like what is going on so far this week with a lot of bubble teams losing and the favorites in the non-CBS conferences winning.

For the Illini, is it as simple as win vs. Wisconsin and get a 12 or 12 seed? I don't see us beating Ohio State if we do get by the Badgers, but I'm assuming a loss to the Buckeyes wouldn't hurt us.

Dave said...

Meant to say 12 or 13 seed

Dan Holmes said...

Remember in 2006 how the committee allowed Syracuse to jump from out of the field to a 5 seed after their run through the Big East? Considering Notre Dame was in far better position at the end of this regular season than Syracuse was at the end of the 2006 regular season, I'd say a 6-7 seed is far from out of the question.

Anonymous said...

If ND ends up getting a 6 seed, we will no longer have reason to have sites like this one, since the committee's decision will henceforth be declared incredibly unreasonable, and indecipherable. ND is by NO MEANS a top 25 team in the nation, and does not deserve to be seeded as such.

Anonymous said...

I will again revisit Wichita State... If anyone really thinks the SEC West is more difficult than the MVC then you have not really watched basketball all season long... If Ole Miss gets into the tourney on the backs of winning 1 early game against Kanasas State then I think basketball is becoming what the BCS has already done to College Football... Not losing a game at home should mean something... I can promise that UNI takes it to some teams this year and the Shockers belong... 43 RPI does not lie...

Bracketology 101 said...

Cincinnati is probably going to have to win the Big East tournament to get a bid. Their 7-11 Big East record is pretty ugly, and it's even uglier when you consider only one of those seven wins came against a team that's going to make the NCAA tourney (ND at home).

Illinois is our first team out right now. If they can beat Wisconsin and play a close game against Ohio State, they might be 1-2 losses by bubble teams away from a bid.

Anonymous said...

I doubt it would happend but if ND does win the Big East how would they not deserve a 6 seed?

They would be on an 8 game winning streak that would include road wins over Georgetown and Marquette, probably two wins over Pitt (one neutral at MSG) and probably two more neutral wins agains WVU and Cuse/Nova.

That would be the most impressive 8game streak of ANY team in the country this year.

Bracketology 101 said...

The fact that "winning every game at home" is a big part of Wichita's case for a bid tells you all you need to know about their chances. The reality for the Shockers is that they only have one Top 50 win, no OOC resume, and questionable losses late in the year to Evansville and Bradley. Wichita didn't exactly lose a heartbreaker in the MVC final, either - they lost by 15.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, unfortunately for the Irish, the season is consisted of 35 games or so, not 8. They still, in case you were wondering, lost to St. Johns, Loyola Marymount(WHAT?), Northwestern, Uconn, and Cincinatti. Care to tell me what teams, exactly, on B101's 6 line or better have a worse resume than ND?

Dan Holmes said...

Anonymous at 8:49:

The scenario I'm talking about does have ND winning the Big East (unlikely, I know, but stranger things have happened), which, as Anonymous at 9:29 says, would be a very impressive 8 game streak, and certainly an impressive last 10 games, which the committee does look at

Anonymous said...

Sure, but they'd still only be 8-2, with a loss to St. Johns, they'd still likely be outside the top 40 RPI.

Dan Holmes said...

FWIW, I thought it was ridiculous that they gave Syracuse a 5 seed in 2006, and every single entrant in my bracket pool correctly picked their 5-12 upset to an underseeded Texas A&M team, so I would hope that the committee will have learned from that.

Anonymous said...

Dan,

I think most Syracuse fans (such as myself) picked that correct as well, since Gerry McNamara was the only reason they won the BET and everyone knew he was hurt for that game.

Still a 5 was probably too high, but a 6 or 7 may have been better.

Anonymous said...

Notre Dame won just four of their last 13 before this run started... Can't see them deserving a 6-7 seed.

Anonymous said...

Yes...the same Bradley team that beat Illinois who you have as a last 4 out... also the same team that beat UNI... Evansville beat UNI and WSU...and the same Evansville team that lost to Butler by 4 pts... isnt there just a chance that the MVC is a top 5 conference? I would put it at better than the SEC if you remove Kentucky... I think they are darn near as good as the Big 10... they are certainly better than the WCC who has 2 very good teams and 2 average teams... the MVC top to bottom has programs that are pretty comparable to the middle of the pack schools from most of the big conferences... heck Missouri State beats Tulsa, St Louis and Auburn and the finished 7-9 in the MVC... and Creighton nearly beat New Mexico who is going to be a 3 seeed? It is just bias TBH.. despite repeated proof in tourneys past that it is a quality conference that in reality deserves 3 bids just about every year.

Dan Holmes said...

The MVC is not even close to the same quality level as the SEC, and you admit this in setting the bar low by saying that they deserve three bids every year. Only once has the SEC ever received fewer than four.

Given that I live in the Midwest, I have been sad to see the MVC go downhill since 2006 or so.

Geoff said...

The committee right or wrong tends to reward teams that go on runs in their respective conference tournaments. Maryland back in 2004 went from a bubble team to a 5 seed based on their impressive ACC championship. They lost a close game in the second round to Syracuse.

Anonymous said...

@ Dan... are you serious? I live in Atlanta... the SEC is just awful... Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina, LSU... these are not good teams... Vandy, Kentucky and Tennessee aside.. this is a very very average conference... Ole Miss is getting love for one fluke win where Kansas ST shot 4-17 from 3pt and 14-27 from the line..both season lows and Ole Miss shot 56% from the field and 81% from the line..both season highs.. perfect storms should not = tourney bids, especially when you lose yo your rival twice.. (Miss St)

Dan Holmes said...

I know the bottom half of the SEC is downright bad, and the MVC, being down, is still fairly deep, but I'm just not seeing a whole lot of marquee wins on the MVC outside of Northern Iowa. Take Wichita State, the second best team in the MVC. Who is their best non-conference win? Texas Tech or Iowa, two of the worst teams in BCS conferences. The SEC at least has several teams with very good out of conference wins (even some of its non-marquee teams, for example, Ole Miss over Kansas State and Florida over Michigan State), which is why it gets the nod over the MVC for me.

Even LSU, the last place team in the SEC, beat Indiana State (the 5th place team in the MVC) by 11, and Indiana State also has losses to teams like Ball State and Coastal Carolina.

Anonymous said...

Why is Wisconsin behind Mich St? Theyve got the same record, have played a harder schedule, and had a major injury to deal with?

Bracketology 101 said...

The major reason Wisconsin is behind Michigan State is that we think the Spartans have a better chance of making the Big Ten final than the Badgers do.

JT3 said...

g'town up on the cuse late....if this holds up does the cuse lose their 1 seed??

mag900 said...

pitt lost its first game of the BET last year and kept its 1 seed. so will syracuse.

Anonymous said...

Is cuse still a #1? Where is Georgetown now?

Anonymous said...

More Glockner (and he makes sense):

"MSU's profile is not very good, and is clearly the weakest of the four Big Ten heavyweights.

MSU's best win of the season is at Purdue -- in the Boilers' first game without Robbie Hummel, which clearly should be discounted to some extent. Outside of that, the Spartans have beaten Wisconsin at home (and lost to the Badgers by 18 in Madison when they were without Jon Leuer) and Gonzaga. They lost at home to Purdue (with Kalin Lucas still not himself) and Ohio State and didn't have to play the Buckeyes in Columbus. They also lost to Florida on a neutral floor and at UNC and Texas.

While MSU is 11th in both polls, the Spartans are (more accurately, in my opinion) ranked 23rd in both Pomeroy and Sagarin and 24th in the RPI. Why exactly is a team that's 3-4 vs. the top 50 and just 8-7 vs. the top 100 worthy of a top-4 seed? Things can change in Indianapolis starting Friday, but right now, this is what MSU is."

Gtown now has 2 wins over 1 seeds. They have to move to the top of the 4 line, don't they? At least past Mich St.

Anonymous said...

There should be a rule that any team that loses to a Division II team is outlawed from receiving a #1 seed. Period. Syracuse lost to Le Moyne even playing its starters most of the game.

DavidATL said...

@ Anon 2:19

Georgetown has not only beaten 2 of the current #1 seeds, but also 3 of the current #3s and has an overall winning record 5-4 against all current 1-4 seeds. (2-2 v. #1s [1-2 v. Syra and 1-0 v. Duke]; 0-1 v. #2s [WV]; and 3-1 v. #3s [1-1 v. Nova, 1-0 v. Pitt and Temple]; 0-0 v. #4s).

Howard Salwasser said...

Talk about a screwjob in the Houston-Memphis game. A Cougar player ran out to celebrate 8 tenths of a second early. Josh Pastner should be cheesed off about it.

Anonymous said...

This mild discussion about Wichita is funny. Even Valley fans would admit they didn't beat anyone and that their only chance was to win the conference tourney. Hell, in this year of the weak bubble beat Evansville and maybe they can be in the discussion, but they couldn't even do that. They had their shot(s) and didn't come through. Stop debating it or hope for a 96-team bracket so you don't have to worry next time.

wileydan said...

Looks like Memphis won't be stealing. The First round has 32 games split between 2 days, but today there are 47 games that will affect the tourney. So is today the better day or a week from today?

Bracketology 101 said...

Syracuse will still be a 1 seed and Georgetown will be at or near the top of the 4 line.

Geoff said...

Wake Forest was blown out today by the worst team in the ACC and now has lost 5 of its last 6. Will they be sweating it out on Sunday?

DavidATL said...

Wow. C-USA is a mess. Memphis and UAB both gone early. Maybe B101 was right re: Tulsa however many weeks (months?) ago. Tulsa may be the bid-stealer. Tournament is on their home floor. Thoughts on UTEP if the Miners do not win the conference? Their OOC resume is really not very impressive. Would they be sweating it (assuming they do not win the C-USA tourney)?

Anonymous said...

San Diego State just got lucky against Colorado State. CSU had the ball twice in the last half minute with a chance to win and couldn't get a clean shot off. And the Rams were without their best big man after he got tossed in the first half for landing a big elbow to the face. Does this put SDSU in pretty good shape for giving the MWC four bids despite the closeness or do they still sweat if the can't beat New Mexico?

Anonymous said...

How about we seed things this way:

Kansas
Syracuse
Kentucky
Duke

Then fill the 2 and 3 lines with Big East teams.

Serioulsy, this over-appreciation of the Big East is getting ridiculous.

odu78 said...

I know they were dead and buried, but with some of the bubble losses in the past couple days, any chance for William and Mary in an Air Force type scenario a la '06? That MD win looks awfully good now, as does the one over Richmond.

Anonymous said...

I agree with anon. In fact, the committee really needs to study the issue after this year. I'd go even further, and not allow any team into the tournament that lost to a DII school. Who cares if they played a 10 man rotation during that game. Who cares if they played man to man instead of their normal matchup zone. Syracuse should not even be in the tourney.

MattLion said...

The Syracuse loss was an exhibition game, give me a break. So does any team that loses to Marathon Oil get banned from the tournament too?

Bracketology 101 said...

Wake Forest is still in, but they guaranteed themselves a double digit seed by getting blown out by Miami.

SDSU is not a lock unless they beat New Mexico, but the way the bubble fell apart yesterday and today, four MWC bids is looking more and more probable.

Just to clarify: a team that won the best conference in the country by two full games, was ranked No. 1 in the country at one point this season, has five Top 25 wins, a 5 RPI, a 10 SOS, and is a consensus 1 seed should be left OUT of the tournament because it lost an exhibition game to a DII team. And multiple people agree with this? Now we've heard it all.

DavidATL said...

UNC is just GAWD-AWFUL. That was painful to watch. I am not sure if they even made 2 baskets in the last 8 minutes combined. Not that Georgia Tech was much better, but that was just embarrassing. UNC is not a big 3-point shooting team (for the season they took the second lowest number of 3-pointers in the ACC -- Wake Forest was lowest). What on earth were they doing hucking up 16 of them when the game was within 2 points until the last minute? That was one painful game to watch. Clang. Clang. Clang. At least Notre Dame and Temple etc TRY to keep the score low. Ouch.

Anonymous said...

I was the anon at 9:16 pm. Sorry, if it wasn't obvious that it was sarcasm.

Anonymous said...

It was very very obvious, people tend to be ridiculously stupid when picking up sarcasm

MattLion said...

My sarcasm meter wasn't picking up on that
right away because it was too close to being a legit post on here..... Like that dude who said Michigan was still on the bubble.

Anonymous said...

With Bubble Armageddon occuring before our eyes, is Utah State safe at this point? One more win?

Kinda sad that the really not very good performance by GT was good enough to win tonight. The added mayhem a GT loss would have wrought would have been so much fun for you guys.

Howard Salwasser said...

And for those of you who think the Pac-10 is going to have three teams in the dance, there's Stanford. And of course there's Oregon State. But now for something completely different....UCLA.

[Cue GrandStand music]

Anonymous said...

Looks like we're about to add Arizona State to the bubble explosion.

AG said...

Thanks for playing, Arizona State. Enjoy the NIT.

Anonymous said...

I was anonymous at 2:49 and I didn't say Syracuse should be left out of the tournament, but I am saying that it should be a factor in giving them a #1 seed.

Anonymous said...

Seriously, UNLV??? They have a losing record and don't draw very well. Maybe you mean Utah? I would hope so! Do some homework and pay attention to one of the better conferences in the country! I'd say if TCU doesn't win the tournament the MWC gets 4 - New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, & BYU. If TCU wins the tournament, you can take Wyoming out of there and insert San Diego State.

Dan Holmes said...

You think that UNLV is out but Wyoming is in? What?

Anonymous said...

Dan, I think he thinks this is women's bracketology

DavidATL said...

Um, regarding all that stuff about Arizona St., ah, well, in the famous words of the sage philosopher Rosana Rosanadana "Never mind".

Bob said...

Is Clemson still in the field of 65 after a awful loss to NC State? If so, where do you see them?

dethwing said...

Washington better pick it up or that "play in game" is going to be between Stanford and Oregon State.

Yikes!

Bracketology 101 said...

Clemson's still going to be in the 8/9 range.

Anonymous said...

First things I do when I get my bracket every year: Advance all the 1 and 2 seeds to the second round along with whoever's playing Clemson.

Jeff said...

"Seriously, UNLV??? They have a losing record and don't draw very well. Maybe you mean Utah? I would hope so! Do some homework and pay attention to one of the better conferences in the country! I'd say if TCU doesn't win the tournament the MWC gets 4 - New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, & BYU. If TCU wins the tournament, you can take Wyoming out of there and insert San Diego State."

A women's Bracketology joke is a sick, sick one.

Anonymous said...

If Rhode Island doesn't beat Temple tomorrow, they should not be in. A win on a neutral court over a team with an RPI in the 80's is nothing significant. If it was, Seton Hall would be preaching their wire to wire win at #78 St John's. Rhode Island should not be in over SHU and others as well.

Anonymous said...

B101, can you envision any scenario that has Purdue on the top line?