Sunday, March 14, 2010

B101's Sunday Morning Thoughts

We are currently in lockdown mode in the Bracketology 101 War Room with "One Shining Moment" playing on a continuous loop in the background.

Yesterday's results were nothing short of chaotic, and they caused a huge shake-up amongst the teams on the bubble. Here is how we see things heading into today's games:

1. We think Utah State and UTEP both deserve at-larges, but we also wouldn't be surprised if one of the two gets left out (especially if Mississippi State wins today).

2. We can't see Minnesota getting left out now. They dominated Purdue yesterday, and the Big Ten title game is so late in the day that it is really to the Gophers' advantage.

3. We think Mississippi State probably still needs to win today to get in.

4. Two of the following three teams will not make it: Virginia Tech, Illinois, and Florida. We are going to be picking apart each of their resumes all day today. If Mississippi State wins, they all might be out.

5. The last 2 seed is really tough to fill right now. Is it Temple (with a win today)? Is it Georgetown (despite their loss last night)? Is it Pittsburgh, who finished three games better than Georgetown in conference?

6. If Duke loses the ACC final, they may also lose their 1 seed to West Virginia.

We have release our Final Field of 65 betwee 4:00-5:00 p.m. ET today. Until then, we will check the comments section periodically to answer any questions.

***NOTE***: FOXSports is having some "technical difficulties" with posting our updated bracket and it's all messed up. Check in HERE (Bracketology 101) for our official, up-to-date bracket.

115 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please help me breathe a little easier today...tell me we are getting 4 MWC teams in and UNLV is safe.

THANKS!!!

Bracketology 101 said...

Breathe easy. The Mountain West is getting four bids.

gary williams said...

Maryland....is there anyway we can stay a 4/5 seed and stay away from a 6 seed like lunardi has us? Thanks

Anonymous said...

You guys rock!!! Can't wait for your bracket.

Anonymous said...

My $0.02 on the last 2 seed. I think it's Georgetown over Temple and Pitt. Though winning the A-10 this year (regular season and tourney) is quite an accomplishment -- and Temple deserves to be rewarded, Georgetown has a higher RPI, a higher SOS, and perhaps most importantly, head-to-head wins over, wait for it, Temple and @ Pitt. (No losses to either).

As a Georgetown fan, I've been watching the Hoyas seed move (both on B101 -- who I trust completely) and the other sites who while I might not trust as much individually, I do look at in aggregation. Palm and Lunardi both have Georgetown as a 2 this morning, but I would not be shocked at all if they are the top #3. I would say of the serious brackets that have updated last night/ this morning, it's about 2/1 for the 2.

On the other hand, because of their strong performance this week, the Hoyas' seed in the net brackets has been rising all week -- going from a low 5 on the Bracket Matrix (which is a bit of a lagging indicator) to the last 3 today. I also recognize the name helps more among pundits than the committee (Arizona to the contrary)

Were it just the paper -- I'd say the Hoyas are going to be a 3, but I have to assume committee members have been watching the BET this week, and if they have -- the Hoyas are a 2 based on the "eye test", so that's where I think they end up.

Bracketology 101 said...

We're crunching the numbers on Maryland right now. They wil be a low 5 or high 6. A 4 is not gonna happen.

Anonymous said...

If Miss State loses. Does it come down to Virginia Tech, Florida and Illinois for the last spot if we believe all the teams below are in?

UNLV, Minnesota, CAL, UTEP, Utah State, Ga Tech

Is it fair to believe the committee won't give the last two spots to the Big Ten and thus we cancel out Illinois and it comes down to Florida and Virginia Tech for the final spot if Miss State is canceled out cause they didn't win the SEC Tourney?

matt r said...

The other thing that helps Minnesota is that 3:30 start time. Even if they fell on their face it would probably be too late to leave them out, unless the committee were to make two completely different brackets.

Anonymous said...

Any chance that Wisconsin ends up in Milwaukee?

Brycenle said...

Can someone explain two things to me? First of all, how can a team that finished as the 8th best in their conference(Georgetown)be considered one of the top 8 teams in the country come NCAA tournament time?
Second, how a team that finishes the season in the top 2 in RPI and SOS(West Virginia) not be considered a #1 seed? I hate the politics in college sports!

Haigin88 said...

So, essentially the Big Ten final is meaningless. OSU is a #2 so matter what, and will be paired with either WV/Duke or Syracuse. Is that how you see it? Or will the committee rank KSU righer than OSU? If so, then maybe they will be paired with UK.

Anonymous said...

Matt... Why is that? They don't present the bracket til 6, and there's at least a decent chance OSU blows them out. I don't see why you couldn't have a either or scenario for the bracket that would be the only thing left to decide as the game winds down... Either VT gets the slot or UM does, or something like that.

Anonymous said...

If Minnesota is down ten in the 2nd half, they should start fouling with 5 minutes left to extend the game as long as possible. That way it won't end until after 6 eastern and the committee won't have time to remove them from the bracket when they lose.

Anonymous said...

If the big ten deserves it and they do then they should be able to have Illinois in. A close loss to Ohio state is better than what VT and Florida did.

Anonymous said...

Who will the top two seeds in Providence be for the 1st adn 2nd rounds? Georgetown and Temple (with an Owl win today)?

Anonymous said...

Haha

If your going to make a bias argument, at least try to be less transparent about it.

How can Georgetown, 8th best (conference record) in conference, be top 8 in country, ok interesting thought.

But two seconds later, you mention WVU should be a #1 seed and conspicuously forget to mention they were third in thier conference?

So shouldn't your own logic preclude them from getting a one seed? Its easy to cherry pick an argument for one team and against another, people usually aren't stupid enough to mix and matc hthe two in one post.

Anonymous said...

If Minnesota is down ten in the 2nd half, they should start fouling with 5 minutes left to extend the game as long as possible. That way it won't end until after 6 eastern and the committee won't have time to remove them from the bracket when they lose.

This is a RIDICULOUS statement. There is no way minnesota gets in PURELY because of the time. Minny needs to WIN, no questions asked.

matt r said...

Wisconsin could be in Milwaukee if they are the highest Big Ten team, or if they are the second-highest Big Ten team and Kentucky is not placed in Milwaukee.

CraigK said...

I think Georgia Tech needs a win today to be certain. Minnesota needs to play Ohio St. close if they get blown out they could lose the bid. UNLV and UTEP should be very worried because 1) they are not in a BCS conference, 2) RPI in the 40's isn't overwhelming, 3) triple digit SOS doesn't add. It seems like Utah St. and Cal pass the so called 'eye test' a lot better. That's how I see it anyway, which is pretty subjective.

matt r said...

"Either VT gets the slot or UM does, or something like that."

It sounds simple but you could be drawing up different regions just to satisfy conference conflicts, rematch conflicts, etc.

Brycenle said...

West Virginia was a 3rd seed in their conference. They finished tied for 2nd place in the Big East behind Syracuse.

CraigK said...

1 Florida 2 Illinois 3 Virginia Tech, that's my rankings for those three teams if I'm just looking at what they've done and not trying to read someone's mind on the selection committee. They may see 3rd place in the ACC as a lock I don't know.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't change the fact that WVU was seeded behind Pitt. The only possible way to say Georgetown is eight best in the Big East to go by conference standings,I assumed you'd be consistent about that for WVU (apparantly not),regardless it doesn't change how hollow your arguement was. Why mention WVU's rpi and sos if you aren't going to mention Georgetown's phenomenal 7 rpi and 1 SOS?

Anonymous said...

I see Louisville in the 10/11 range. What do you think? Also, if they do stay at a 9, they wouldn't REALLY match them up with Kentucky, would they?

Anonymous said...

With Cal and UNLV both losing last night, what are the chances that Oklahoma State moves up and takes their 7 seed on your final bracket?

matt r said...

A 9 Louisville would likely not be matched with Kentucky. The committee is to avoid rematches in the first and second rounds "if possible".

CraigK said...

No way Georgetown gets a 3 seed. That's my completely unsecured guarantee to you.

Bracketology 101 said...

Lousville will be a 10 or 11.

Oklahoma State has a good chance to move up to a 7 with the losses by Cal and UNLV.

Anonymous said...

What would you put the odds on Northern Iowa getting 7 seed? Any chance they will drop lower than 8?

Phil said...

Does Richmond just trade places with Xavier on the 6 line if they lose today? And can they get to a 5 with a win?

Snapple said...

I know today is like Christmas for you guys. Just keep up the good work. I've been following y'all for three years.

I can't wait to see which team Lunardi magically moves into the bracket at the 11th hour even though they haven't played in a week. Like Arkansas all over again.

Robert Bosco said...

Defintiely taking that challenge today and see how close i get! Like Snapple said u guys are great and keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

No way Temple gets a #2 seed. Do you think Texas will fall to #8? They have been absolutely horrible lately.

apissedant said...

Minnesota doesn't have to do anything today. They are more impressive than Illinois, Florida, and most definitely Va. Tech.

I don't care what Lunardi says, there is no way Georgetown deserves a 2 seed. WVU was a 3, sure, but just barely, and that is still much better than an 8 (more than twice as good). They also WON the tournament, where Georgetown was upset by an unranked team.

I'd give it to Temple or Butler. I realize your last bracket has Butler has a 5 seed, but they only have 4 losses, none embarrassing, won their (albeit weak) conference both in the tournament and in the regular season... And they have two impressive wins. Oh, last but not least, they're undefeated FOR THE YEAR.

Temple has a few bad losses, but still fewer than the others in contention. They won regular season and should win the tournament in a pretty good division this year. The Georgetown loss was at Georgetown by 1 point, and anyone who watched the game saw Temple effectively hand that game over. Two of their losses came with Fernandez injured. That only leaves the KU and SJU games as embarrassments, which isn't good, but it's better than the others in contention.

'Nova lost waaay too many games down the stretch. They're lucky to be hanging on to a 3 seed.

Mike said...

So... does WVU get a #1 seed or not? They did win the Big East, Syracuse did not, and Duke had the easiest path imaginable to the ACC title should they win today.

Anonymous said...

Minnesota lost SIX games outside the top 75, 4 outside the top 100, and got swept by 14-17 michigan. No way 20-13, with an RPI 12-14 slots below VT gets them in, when VT tied for third in the ACC. Minnesota has some good wins, but they lost FIVE more games.

Anonymous said...

So... does WVU get a #1 seed or not? They did win the Big East, Syracuse did not, and Duke had the easiest path imaginable to the ACC title should they win today.

No way. Duke, with a win today, will be 18-5 vs the top 100, WVU will be 17-6, WVU will be 8-5 vs top 50, Duke will be 8-4. Duke tied for first in their conference, WVU finished two full games back. Regular Season and Tourney champ of the ACC, More top 100 wins, less top 100 losses, less top 50 losses... I don't see how WVU gets the bid. It's not like they had an INCREDIBLY tough ride to the championship, with Cincy, notre dame and GT.

MattLion said...

BTW, the team Lunardi magically went out of his way to mention on ESPN this morning was William & Mary. He thinks they're still out, but worth noting....

Anonymous said...

Matt... I think they talked to W&M's coach on ESPN today, which explains him talking about them.


William and Mary have 3 losses outside the top 200. No WAY they get in.

Canadian Zag Fan said...

What do you think, is there any chance for Gonzaga to move up to a 6?

Or will we get hosed again since we're not from a power conference and get stuck in an 8/9 game?

MattLion said...

Ahh... thanks anon @12:27, that makes way more sense.

For a second I thought he might have some wierd inside info, but at large bids don't usually go to teams that lose to Iona.

Anonymous said...

What do you think, is there any chance for Gonzaga to move up to a 6?

Or will we get hosed again since we're not from a power conference and get stuck in an 8/9 game?

If you don't want to get "hosed", beat some teams. Don't lose to St. Mary's in the conference tourney, don't lose by 79 to duke, don't lose to wake forest, don't lose to SAN FRANCISCO, and DON'T lose to LOYOLA MARYMOUNT.

Anonymous said...

I think VT could have a better resume than Illinois and Florida but I don't think Florida has a better resume than Illinois. Most of all I don't think Utah State deserves an at large bid. What did they do to deserve that bid, beat BYU?

Dan Holmes said...

I couldn't have said it any better. Gonzaga would not be "hosed" with a 7 seed. In fact, in any other year, they'd be lucky to get into the 8-9 game with such a weak resume.

M said...

Wake Forest is in right? I know they sucked down the stretch but the number of Top 50 wins should trump the teams that sneak in, correct?

Willo said...

Don't the major conferences that hold their championships on Sunday usually get both teams in? When was the last time a team that made a Sunday conference final didn't get into the field? I honestly don't know.

Bracketology 101 said...

Wake will be in and will be right around the 10 line.

Gonzaga isn't getting "hosed" as a 7 seed. Their 36 RPI isn't great, they lost two bad games in conference, and they only have one OOC win over a tourney-caliber team (Wisconsin).

jp23 said...

I really hope both UTEP and Utah State both make it. I just can't fathom that there's feelings that Minnesota, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Florida, etc. are more deserving. In a blind draw, I bet there's compelling evidence that William & Mary is certainly good enough to be in the conversation.

But...even with a few teams potentially snubbed, I would not want to see the tourney expanded. That would be turrible

Anonymous said...

UTEP and Utah St will BOTH be out. I'm sure that upon closer inspection of their "body of work" you'll agree!

Jack said...

Georgetown has a convincing neutral court win over Butler. And there is zero evidence Butler can hang with top seeds. The eeked out a win at home against Xavier and won at home against Ohio State without Evan Turner. Butler is a 4-5 seed for a reason. Not losing to mediocre competition does not make you a two seed.

Brycenle said...

I like how you conveniently left out the most important head to head stat between Duke and WVU. Duke is 1-3 against top 25 competition this year and WVU is 5-4! They also have a SOS of 3 when Duke's is 10. There is no way that Duke or even Syracuse(losing their last 2 games with one of them being to Louisville by double digits) more then West Virgina.

Novice Oregonian said...

I'm having trouble finding your updated bracket. Who are your last four in and first four out?

Anonymous said...

Why is it people insist on using top 50 RPI wins as a metric for worthiness and yet ignore their own team's or other team's ACTUAL RPI ranking? Seems like a serious disconnect. You shouldn't have it both ways. Either use RPI numbers or don't, don't pick and choose which RPI metric you want to use.

AG said...

I still think its criminal that Wake Forest is considered safe. They tanked the tournament last year and have now tanked games vs. UNC, Miami, and NC State to end the season.

Face it: Wake's players don't care about the tournament, they're probably looking ahead to the NBA draft or something.

Jack said...

"Duke, with a win today, will be 18-5 vs the top 100, WVU will be 17-6, WVU will be 8-5 vs top 50, Duke will be 8-4. Duke tied for first in their conference, WVU finished two full games back. Regular Season and Tourney champ of the ACC, More top 100 wins, less top 100 losses, less top 50 losses... I don't see how WVU gets the bid."

This is a hilarious misuse of junk stats. West Virginia is 8-5 against RPI Top 50... but all but one of those losses comes against RPI Top 16 teams! Duke has only played one game against that type of competition, at Georgetown where they got blown out and who WV has beaten twice now. WV has only lost one game against the kind of competition Duke is used to playing. Yeah, Duke tied for first in their conference... but their conference is the ACC where the stiffest competition is UMD. Maryland is a middle of the pack team in the Big East.

Anonymous said...

I like how you conveniently left out the most important head to head stat between Duke and WVU. Duke is 1-3 against top 25 competition this year and WVU is 5-4! They also have a SOS of 3 when Duke's is 10. There is no way that Duke or even Syracuse(losing their last 2 games with one of them being to Louisville by double digits) more then West Virgina.


Duke, with a win, would be 7-4 vs Pomeroy's top 31, same as WVU, and didn't finish 2 games behind their conference leader or lose any games by 16.

Anonymous said...

Fact remains that duke, with 18 top 100 wins, 8 top 50 wins, and the ACC regular season and tournament championships under their belt will not be left out for a hard-charging second-tier big east team. Congrats on winning the tourney, WVU, but it's too little, too late.

mag900 said...

"I like how you conveniently left out the most important head to head stat between Duke and WVU. Duke is 1-3 against top 25 competition this year and WVU is 5-4! They also have a SOS of 3 when Duke's is 10. There is no way that Duke or even Syracuse(losing their last 2 games with one of them being to Louisville by double digits) more then West Virgina."

both duke and wvu are 4-3 against pomeroy top 25. i have no idea what you are trying to assert in the last part of your post because there is no verb.

Anonymous said...

USU is in for sure.

Florida
RPI: 59
SOS: 33
NSOS: 110
Top 25: 1-8
Top 50: 3-8
Top 100: 8-10
Road/Neutral court: 8-8
Best win: Tennessee
Worst loss: South Alabama

Utah State
RPI: 31
SOS: 100
NSOS: 98
Top 25: 1-0
Top 50: 2-1
Top 100: 10-5
Road/Neutral court: 10-6
Best win: Brigham Young
Worst loss: Utah

Brycenle said...

Mag900,

I'm sorry you are right and I screwed up my last post. I meant to say that West Virginia should be the #1 seed over Duke and Syracuse. I honestly believe after the way they finished I could see Syracuse being the team to drop to #2 over West Virginia and Duke if they win the ACC tournament.

Anonymous said...

Surprised by UNI as an 8 seed with a top 20 RPI, Top 25 ranking, and 11 road wins (which seems to be important to the committee). Why not higher in your bracket?

gary williams said...

maryland has to be a 5....now just about everyone has them at a 5. Palm and Lunardi both have them at the 5 spot....what says b101?

Anonymous said...

Maryland will be a nice draw for whichever lucky 12 gets to play them.

apissedant said...

I see Duke as 2-3 against top 25 by either coaches or AP, and WVU 6-4 vs. top 25.

Again, I'm not a fan of RPI, so I don't quote the RPI of opponents or the team in question.

Despite WVU playing 5 more ranked teams, they only have 1 more overall loss.

I think that's pretty impressive. I would personally put them as a 1 seed over Duke, but I doubt the committee will.

The whole point is to correctly guess the committee's action, not explain why the committee's decision is wrong.

Anonymous said...

Who do you have ahead? Florida or Virginia Tech.

Bracketology 101 said...

Maryland's a 5.

apissedant said...

On the other hand, a #1 seed being 2-3 vs ranked opponents is absolutely miserable.

Anonymous said...

I'm looking down the S'curve and Illinois is just past Kent State... I've got Illinois as being just inside the last 10 out, sandwiched in between Kent State and VCU.

Canadian Zag Fan said...

Just to clarify I meant getting an 8/9 as being "hosed" I do feel a 7 is likely fair considering the stumbles we encountered along the way this year, but I'm secretly hoping for a 6 seed.

I'm guessing you feel there is little chance of that happening?

Thanks!

apissedant said...

VCU played 0 ranked teams all season long, and only played 2 teams that will end up in the tournament. They went 2-2 against tournament teams. VCU is not ahead of Illinois or any other team on the bubble. A loss to MSU or OSU is not the same as a loss to ODU or NE.

Anonymous said...

Mag you better hope that WVU does not get in Duke's bracket (if you get the 1 seed). That game would be just like 2 years ago when 7 seed WVU dominated an overrated and untested lowly 2 seed Duke team from the ACC.

Oh and my hope for selection Sunday is all the Hokie fans crying when their team doesn't make it.

Bart said...

Illinois should be last one in. 35 SOS, 5 Wins vs top 30 RPI.

Anonymous said...

I think SDSU and UNLV play Notre Dame and Marquette as the big east teams have to stay away from 1 or 2 seeded big east teams and both the MWC teams seem to fit as 8/9. What do you think?

Daniel said...

Surely Mississippi State is in after taking UK to overtime?

Anonymous said...

Of those 5 top 30 wins by Illinois, 2 were true road games and 1 was a neutral site game. No bubble team has as many top level wins as Illinois.

Bracketology 101 said...

UNI climbed to a 7 in our final bracket

Anonymous said...

best and worst case seeding for Washington? Do you see us playing close to home in Spokane? UW vs Gonzaga 11vs7 matchup one time plz?

mag900 said...

i think it's a fait accompli that duke and wvu will get paired as 1/2 in one of the regionals. duke likely will be the 1 but it wouldn't be outrageous if wvu passed them last night. for duke's sake, getting wvu as its 2 is not a good thing and, if that's the regional final, i think wvu may even be favored.

Bart said...

Miss St. does not deserve a bid. UK played weakly. Looks at their resume. Terrible SOS, i believe in the 130's.

mag900 said...

Bart, what language are you writing in?

Bart said...

What do you mean?

apissedant said...

As to Butler vs. Georgetown.... what is the point when something goes from "convincing" to "eeked" by your definition? 7 points is convincing and 1 point is eeked? Butler led the majority of the game, with the largest lead being 15, while Xavier's largest lead was 6.

They beat OSU by 8, isn't that "convincing" by your previous definition?

If beating mediocre teams does not justify a 2 seed, then what does losing to mediocre teams like USF and Rutgers justify?

What about "eeking" out a victory against #3 seed Temple based on last minute missed free throws?

A 23-10 team being a 2 seed is not justified in any year.

Again, I'll taken an unproven mid-major over a proven mediocre Big East team.

The Big East will already have WVU and Syracuse as 1 and 2 seeds. Adding 22nd ranked Georgetown as one of the top 8 teams in the country while leaving 12th ranked Butler as one of the top 20 would be unjustified... especially since Georgetown has lost since that ranking, and Butler has continued to win.

Jefferson said...

Why not Georgetown as the last #2, they have the #1 strength of schedule which helps explain the overall number of losses, I believe the may have the best OOC SOS but since those numbers arne't easily found I can't back that up. They beat Duke, Syracuse, and just lost a nail bitter to WVU in the BE tournament championship last night, they also beat Butler (NC), Temple, Pitt (at pitt) and Villanova. Of course they have some bad losses Rutgers being the worse but Freeman was playing with undiagnosed diabetes when they went 1 and four down the stretch, doesn't the trashing of Cincy, USF, and Marquette and the victory of Syracuse maybe get them the last two seed. Also no chance they lose in the second round.

They also are top 8 in the RPI ahead of temple and nova

jp23 said...

With Mississippi State losing (what a finish!!!), are they considered out now??

Howard Salwasser said...

Joey Brackets does it again! Goodbye VA Tech, Hello Illinois. Just saw it on ESPN.

matt said...

A comment/question regarding the last remaining at-larges. It's supposed to be the best remaining 34 teams or whatever. So would you want a team that actually has beat top level teams and proven that they can (Illinois) or teams that haven't proven it (Florida, UTEP, etc.) I know Illinois has also has questionable loses but they have PROVED they can beat good teams. No dog in the fight I can't wait for the draw. Man I've seen some cherry-picking at it's best on display. Great work guys.

Howard Salwasser said...

jp23 said...

With Mississippi State losing (what a finish!!!), are they considered out now??

I still think they could make it in.

Bart said...

JP23 I think they are out. They kept it close against UK but a 130 SOS is not good enough, but you never know with the committee.

Anonymous said...

USU better not be in over VT, MSU, or Illinois.

apissedant said...

I love how Georgetown fans think it's excusable for Georgetown to lose to ODU but it is inexcusable for Butler to lose to Georgetown.

Georgetown is most definitely a better team than ODU. Georgetown is better than half a dozen teams that Georgetown lost to, so why should a 7 point loss against Georgetown knock a team with only 4 losses all the way down to a 5 seed if Georgetown's half dozen losses against worse teams doesn't knock it down below 2, or at worst 3?

Bracketology 101 said...

Three spots open for five teams:

VT
UTEP
Utah State
Miss State
Florida

Illinois is OUT, Minnesota is IN.

Justin said...

Lunardi with the inside info again.

Bart said...

How does MISS St get in over Illinois? One of the worst bubble teams. I'd be pretty disappointed if the committee just doesnt want another Big10 school in.

FOWLONE said...

despite the fact that I bleed cherry and white; I challenge anyone to tell me how temples' resumen doesn't gernerlast two seed. 29 wins, 7 top 50,12 road wins, 8 rpi, won last 11, no bad losses,big 5 champs, reg season a10 champs,a10 tourny champs.....please explain how that 2 aint ours??? maybe gtown...but thats it....

Anonymous said...

Florida is 3-8 vs the top 50 and 1-8 vs the top 25. How do they get in over a team like Illinois that has 5 wins over teams in the top 30?

apissedant said...

Florida only has 1 good win since December, and tons of bad losses. Miss. St. only has 1 good win total, but their good win is more recent, won the most recent head to head, and has 1 fewer loss. The win over MSU LAST YEAR has an expired shelf life. Florida had plenty of opportunities to show that wasn't a fluke, and they failed miserably.

apissedant said...

I agree with FOWLONE except for the Georgetown part.

Bart said...

VT has a SOS of 132. Geez B101 you guys are disappointing me. Cmon you fighting Illini!

JamesCraven said...

Syracuse IMHO does not deserve a one seed. With WVU winning, they a should be the fourth top seed and Syarcuse as a two.

Anonymous said...

B101, how has your rationale changed from this morning? At most, today's events add Miss St. to the at-large discussion...can't see how they remove Illinois.

CHL said...

There's no way VT, Utah State and Florida get in ahead of Illinois.

They simply cannot match Illinois' quality wins.

You're wrong on this one, B101.

Anonymous said...

Syracuse is going to be a 1. Deal with it folks. Rightly or wrongly, most basketball people consider the Big East the best conference in the country and they won it by multiple games. And please, I don't want to argue about conference strength, so don't quote conference RPI, Pomeroy, or Sagarin ratings. It really doesn't matter what you think or what I think, but when Bilas, Raftery, Bobby Knight, and even Dook Vitale call the Big East the best conference, I'm inclined to think most people on the committee will also think so.

The interesting discussion is actually Duke vs West Virginia. I don't really have an opinion one way or another, however, if you look at the bracket project, the distribution is fairly equal between West Virginia and Duke for the final 1. I think Duke gets it, but it seems to be a toss up.

Anonymous said...

Any chance Washington gets a higher seed than Cal. Based on head to head and resume, they look better.

Uncle Bob said...

A lot of talk about Big Ten teams. Ill, Minn getting in, OSU a number 2 seed and Purdue. This is the conference that will be the biggest loser this year. SOS looks good on paper if you count them playing each other as "highly ranked". Look at the out of conference schedules and it's easy to see they will not make a good showing. Give some mid-majors a chance instead of "also rans" from big conferences.

NCAA should probably put a limit on number of teams (or at least a percentage of teams) from a conference who can participate.

MLB has addressed the issue and not always do the "next best team" get in.

Anonymous said...

Uncle Bob, no real disagreements, but if B10 gets two fewer teams than the ACC this year (5 to 7) as many brackets predict, it will be a crime.

Matt said...

apissedant... I don't care about Florida and don't necessarily think they should get in, but I don't think you should say "The win over MSU LAST YEAR" like it's a big deal. It's still part of this season and therefore doesn't expire until the end of this season, calendar year shouldn't matter.

MJN said...

Quick question. Love your "3 of last 5" will get in with VT, Florida, Miss St, UTEP, Utah St. My question... how does URI not fit that group? How close to that group are they?

Brycenle said...

I'm sorry but there is no way the committee can justify putting Georgetown in the #2 seed. They finished as the 8th best team in the Big East and now they are being considered the 8th best team in the country with 10 losses? There is no way this can be justified.

apissedant said...

Matt,

I hear you, but understand I say that because Florida has been using that win to act like they're something for months. We all know the home stretch is more important in decision making than early wins. That's how decision making always works, and for good reason. You're not going to play MSU in the tournament last November or December, you're going to play MSU in the tournament in March of April. It's important how you play now, not how you played then.

Florida has dropped 4 of 5, at least one of those games to a non-tournament team (14-17 Georgia). The only win was to a non-tournament team (15-17 Auburn). If they get in, it would likely mean the loss to MSST would also become a loss to a non-tournament team.

Illinois is not being talked about because of a bad ending streak that includes only 2 wins, but 1 of those 2 wins is to a tournament team, and every single loss was to a tournament team.

How can that exact same logic not completely destroy Florida's chances considering their win was not as good and their losses were worse?

Jack said...

Apissedant:

GU lead Butler by 17 at one point, Butler closed but the out come wasn't really in doubt. Butler beat Xavier on a last second layup and after and extremely controversial timekeeping issue kept Xavier from having a chance to respond. Also, this was at Butler.

Butler's win versus tOSU was solid, but again, no Evan Turner. If the committee is going to discount this loss of tOSU's resume it should discount this win on Butler's.

They aren't bad wins and losing to GU isn't a bad loss. It just isn't two seed material. GU did eek out a win against Temple. Temple would be a reasonable two seed instead of GU. I wouldn't have a problem with that.

GU has 10 losses, but half of them are to top 10 RPI teams. And two of those losses came with their leading scorer out.

"

Again, I'll taken an unproven mid-major over a proven mediocre Big East team.

The Big East will already have WVU and Syracuse as 1 and 2 seeds. Adding 22nd ranked Georgetown as one of the top 8 teams in the country while leaving 12th ranked Butler as one of the top 20 would be unjustified... especially since Georgetown has lost since that ranking, and Butler has continued to win."

You're kidding right? Georgetown lost since that ranking but they also won three games in three days with two blow-outs and a win against a number one seed. Odds are Georgetown is a top ten team tomorrow. And that loss was too a number 1 or 2 seed! And it came down to the wire.

"Georgetown is better than half a dozen teams that Georgetown lost to, so why should a 7 point loss against Georgetown knock a team with only 4 losses all the way down to a 5 seed."

Uh, it doesn't. Butler is a 4 or a 5 seed because they still haven't beaten anyone good. But if they were a 3/2 seed and you had to pick between them and GU, well the game is a pretty good tiebreaker.

As for Georgetown's losses, at Rutgers was bad. South Florida isn't nearly as bad a loss as some people seem to think and the fact the GU just crushed them on a neutral court helps make up for it. Good teams loose games in the Big East. That's just what happens. But GU has 4 top ten wins to make up for it. I could be wrong but I don't think any other team in the country has that.

And if you think GU is a mediocre team in the Big East, you're just not watching the games. They're right there behind 'cuse and WV. They played the hardest conference schedule in the Big East with key players sick and picked up some bad losses. But they're totally reasonable as a two seed, as is Temple.

Uncle Bob said...

I agree Anon... Neither conference (B10 & ACC) deserves more than six at Most.

Both conferences are in down years and have not done very well OOC. I think that should be a major criteria that would force good teams to schedule - and beat - other good teams.

For this year Big East deserves 7, no one else more than 6.

Anonymous said...

whens your bracket coming out?

Anonymous said...

When is your bracket coming out???

Anonymous said...

when will you post your predictions for this years 2010tournament? Can't wait to see them!!!!!

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