Saturday, March 06, 2010

B101's Saturday Tweets

Our quick thoughts about Saturday's results:

The last game at Freedom Hall was one to remember. Kyle Kuric scored all of his 22 points in the second half, as Louisville completed a gigantic season sweep of Syracuse by upsetting the top-ranked Orange 78-68. The win makes Louisville an absolute lock to make the tournament and it will move them to around the 8 line in our next bracket on Monday. Syracuse, meanwhile, will still be on the 1 line on Monday even with a loss (its first one on the road all year), and they still have to be regarded as the favorite going into the Big East tournament next week. As long as they make the semis in the Garden, which means just one win, they'll be a lock for 1 seed on Selection Sunday. They might even be able to make it with a loss in the Big East quarters depending on what happens elsewhere.

Like Louisville, West Virginia didn't wait until the Big East tournament to make a final statement to the selection committee. Thanks to some huge clutch shots from Da'Sean Butler, including the decisive runner with 5.8 seconds left in overtime, the Mountaineers rallied from 13 down at the half to knock off Villanova 68-66 on Saturday at the Wachovia Center. After Butler's shot, Scottie Reynolds got a good look at what would have been a game-winning three at the buzzer, but the shot was too strong and West Virginia held on for the victory. The win moved the Mountaineers to 13-5 in conference and clinched them the No. 3 seed in the Big East tournament. They'll move up to the 2 line in our next bracket on Monday, while Villanova will likely drop to a 3. The Wildcats have now lost four of six down the stretch, and looking ahead, we like Ohio State's chances to win the Big Ten tourney better than we like 'Nova's chances to win the Big East tourney. That projection will keep 'Nova on the top of the 3 line.

March is a fun month to be Irish, and it's also been a heck of a month to be a Notre Dame fan. The red-hot Fighting Irish won their fourth straight game Saturday - beating Marquette 63-60 in overtime in Milwaukee - and they all but locked up an at-large bid in the process. ND trailed by six with just under a minute to go in regulation in this one, but Carlton Scott hit a three at the buzzer (no foul, Buzz Williams?) to send the game into OT. Tim Abromaitis and Tyrone Nash took over for the Irish after that, scoring 10 of ND's 12 points in overtime. At this point, ND would be an absolute lock for an at-large with just one Big East win, and they'll probably get in regardless. The return of Luke Harangody (he scored five points in a cameo appearance against Marquette) definitely helps the Irish's case if they were to slip up at the Garden. Even with the loss, Marquette is still safe in terms of an at-large. They'll be playing for seeding in the Big East tourney, and they'll likely be a low 9 seed in our bracket next week.

There's no need to discuss UConn's in-or-out scenarios anymore: the Huskies are going to have to win the Big East tournament to go dancing. Their 75-68 loss at South Florida on Saturday was as shocking as it was ugly, and the final score wasn't indicative or how easy USF had it at times. UConn trailed by double digits for much of the second half against the Bulls, before cutting the lead to four in the closing minutes. They wouldn't get get any closer, though, as South Florida made seven of eight free throws down the stretch to ice it. The most curious part about the game's ending was who was on the floor for UConn - Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson were both on the bench during the Huskies' comeback, while seldom-used Darius Smith and Jamal Coomb-McDaniel got a lot of playing time. The win moved South Florida to 9-9 in the Big East and puts them back into bubble contention heading into the Big East tournament. Two Big East wins is a minimum (they play DePaul and then Georgetown), and they might have to win a third too (Syracuse) depending on what happens elsewhere, but the Bulls are certainly a lot more alive for a bid than they were yesterday.

(We wonder where the Huskies will be in Lunardi's Monday bracket. A 12 seed? 13 seed? The last 1 seed?)

Speaking of Lunardi, how's that Kansas State as a 1 seed move looking now? The Wildcats lost an absolute stunner at home to lowly Iowa State on Saturday, falling 85-82 in OT.

We apologize, Hokie Nation: we shouldn't have ended our season-long support of Virginia Tech when we did. The Hokies proved us wrong - and proved that they are indeed worthy of an at-large - by beating Georgia Tech 88-82 in Atlanta on Saturday. Malcolm Delaney had 32 points in the win for Virginia Tech, who not got picked up the 10th ACC win they so desperately needed, they also clinched the four seed and a first round bye in the ACC tourney. They'll face Wake Forest or Florida State in the quarters. If they win, they're a lock, but with everything that went on today bubble-wise, even a loss might get them in. They'd have to root for as few bid-stealers as possible, but a fourth place finish and 10 wins in a conference like the ACC is tough to ignore.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, will be on the wrong side of the bubble come Monday. The Yellow Jackets have lost five of seven overall and their 7-9 finish in the ACC looks really ugly right now (especially with VT at 10-6). Two wins in the ACC tourney are a must to get Georgia Tech back into the at-large mix, but given their ACC road record this season (1-7), we don't like their chances to make a whole lot of noise in Greensboro.

Rhode Island's stay in our bracket lasted less than 24 hours. The Rams, who we liked the best out of all the free-falling A-10 bubble teams, blew a six-point halftime lead and lost at UMass 69-67 on Saturday. Ricky Harris was the hero for the Minutemen, scoring 28 points and making what ended up being the game-winning lay-up with 3.5 seconds left. URI shot 37% from the field and went just 9-of-17 from the line in the loss, which dropped them to 9-7 in conference. They'll enter the A-10 tournament needing a trip to the final to make up for their 0-4 record against the Big Three in conference and two straight killer road losses to teams in the bottom half of the A-10 standings.

Saint Louis should probably get the blame should the A-10 only end up with three bids next Sunday. The Billikens beat Dayton 71-66 on Saturday and have now beaten Dayton twice and Rhode Island once in the last month to finish two games clear of the field, and in 4th place, in the A-10. If Saint Louis had been able to pull the upset against Temple or Xavier on their home floor over the past two weeks, then they would have been in great shape for a bid. Unfortunately for both the Billikens and the A-10, they weren't able to win either of those games, plus they have three losses outside of the top 100 RPI. They still have an outside chance at an at-large, though, should they reach the A-10 final. Dayton has now lost five of seven games and is completely out of the running for an at-large. The absolute collapse of all of the A-10 bubble teams has really opened things up and will make this next week even crazier.

Did any team do more this week to hurt their tourney chances than Mississippi State? They had a great opportunity to finish 11-5 in the SEC and pick up their first big win in conference against Tennessee at home on Saturday night. Instead of sitting pretty going into the SEC tourney, they lost 75-59 and will now need to make a deep run into the SEC tourney to get any serious consideration for a bid. The Vols were in control from the very start of this one (a 17-0 run to start the game is tough to overcome) and they can now prepare for their opening round game in the SEC tourney against LSU on Thursday.

On a side note, we think the SEC needs to change the way it seeds teams for the conference tourney. Even though Tennessee finished two games better than both Mississippi and Mississippi State, they will still have to play in the opening round of the SEC tourney since they finished in 3rd place in the SEC East. The SEC should either get rid of the East and West divisions or just seed teams based on their conference record regardless of the division.

Mississippi State's loss might be San Diego State's gain in our next bracket. The Aztecs took care of business against Air Force on Saturday - winning 61-42 on the road - and they've now won six of seven heading into the MWC tourney. They'll be the No. 4 seed in that tourney, which means a potential semifinal match-up with New Mexico. If they win that game and make the final, they're going to be in great shape for a bid, especially with all of the losses on and around the bubble that happened today. Playing a close game against the Lobos might still be enough, but it would take a perfect storm of favorites winning for that scenario to get the Aztecs in.

Head-scratcher: South Carolina won 77-73 at Vanderbilt (Devan Downey had 26 points for the Gamecocks in the win).

Of note: Kansas won at Missouri; Baylor beat Texas at home; Texas A&M won at Oklahoma; Oklahoma State beat Nebraska at home; Georgetown beat Cincinnati at home; Pittsburgh beat Rutgers at home; Purdue won 64-60 at Penn State; Duke blew out North Carolina at home; Maryland won at Virginia; Florida State won 61-60 at Miami; Temple beat George Washington at home; Xavier beat St. Bonaventure at home; Richmond won at Charlotte in OT; BYU won at TCU; UNLV beat Wyoming at home; UTEP rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat UAB at home; Memphis beat Tulsa at home; Cal won at Stanford; Washington won at Oregon State; Utah State beat New Mexico State at home; Cornell won at Yale; Seton Hall won at Providence; Mississippi escaped with a 68-66 win at Arkansas.

Automatic Bids
Winthrop won the Big South final, beating Coastal Carolina 61-48 on the Chanticleers' home floor. It's the fifth NCAA tournament appearance in the last six years for the Eagles.

East Tennessee State won its second straight Atlantic Sun tournament, beating tourney Cinderella Mercer 72-66 on Mercer's home floor.

Murray State capped off a great season with a 62-51 win over Morehead State to clinch the Ohio Valley auto bid. We will likely have the Racers on the 13 line in our final bracket, but we wouldn't be shocked if they end up a 12.

Colonial Tournament - Quarterfinals
No. 1 Old Dominion beat No. 8 Towson; No. 5 VCU beat No. 4 George Mason; No. 2 Northeastern beat No. 7 Hofstra in double OT; No. 3 William & Mary beat No. 11 James Madison.

Horizon Tournament - Semifinals
No. 1 Butler beat No. 4 Milwaukee; No. 2 Wright State beat No. 7 Detroit.

MVC Tournament - Semifinals
No. 1 Northern Iowa beat No. 5 Bradley; No. 2 Wichita State beat No. 3 Illinois State.

WCC Tournament - Quarterfinals
No. 3 Portland beat No. 6 San Diego; No. 5 Loyola Marymount beat No. 4 San Francisco.

America East Tournament - Quarterfinals
No. 1 Stony Brook beat No. 8 Albany; No. 2 Vermont beat No. 7 UMBC; No. 4 Boston University beat No. 5 Hartford; No. 6 New Hampshire beat No. 3 Maine.

Southern Tournament - Quarterfinals
S1 Wofford beat N4 UNC-Greensboro; N1 Appalachian State beat S4 The Citadel; N2 Western Carolina beat N6 Elon; S2 Charleston beat N3 Chattanooga.

MAAC Tournament - Quarterfinals
No. 1 Siena beat No. 9 Manhattan; No. 2 Fairfield beat No. 7 Canisius; No. 6 Niagara beat No. 3 Iona; No. 5 Rider beat No. 4 St Peter's.

Summit Tournament - Quarterfinals
No. 1 Oakland beat No. 8 UMKC; No. 2 IUPUI beat No. 7 Western Illinois.

Sun Belt Tournament - First Round
No. 9 South Alabama beat No. 8 Florida Atlantic; No. 4 Western Kentucky beat No. 13 New Orleans; No. 5 Arkansas State beat No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock; No. 6 Denver beat No. 11 Florida International; No. 10 Louisiana-Monroe beat No. 7 Louisiana-Lafayette.

Big Sky Tournament - First Round
No. 6 Portland State beat No. 3 Montana State; No. 4 Montana beat No. 5 Northern Arizona.

149 comments:

Haigin88 said...

If WVU wins the Big East tourney, beating 'Cuse in the process, can they move past Duke?

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on ND and Marquette?


I would think Syracuse has a 1 seed sewn up even if they lose in the quarters of the BE tourney. Is that correct?

Anonymous said...

Can't see the BE getting 9 in...

Dan Holmes said...

I do wish the committee would take Syracuse's lost to Le Moyne into account. 1 seeds don't lose to D2 teams.

Anonymous said...

You're a moron Dan.

It was an exhibition, and Boeheim played it as such. They played man the whole game and made sure the entire bench played.

Anonymous said...

With its win today, is UNLV now a lock for the tournament? Also, what will San Diego State have to do to make the MWC a 4 bid league?

Anonymous said...

Does winthrop go to the play in game?

mag900 said...

i'm glad miss st came to play tonight.

Anonymous said...

Can't look past the Hokies now! 10-6 and a first round bye in the ACC tourney. Huge win at Georgia Tech.

Anonymous said...

Where is rock bottom in terms of seed for Texas? And no matter where it is will it still be too high in terms of their current level of competitiveness?

Malcolm's 32 points said...

Dear Bracketology 101,

You were wrong. Very wrong.

xoxo,
Malcolm Delaney

Anonymous said...

VT definitely took the more difficult route to 10-6 in the ACC, but guessing they're pretty much locked in now? Nearly blew the huge lead, but the fact that they controlled from for most of the game @GT looks good.

Thinking VT is about a 10 seed now - chance to advance by going far in the ACC tournament.

Zak said...

What are the odds Seton Hall gets in with 3 wins and then a loss in the semis? This would mean they beat Providence twice and then ND in the quarters. I'm thinking a lot of things have to go their way for them to get in without beating a top 4 team from the Big East.

mag900 said...

dan, when a team's starters lose to the backups in a practice scrimmage, do you ding the team too?

mag900 said...

zak, if the hall wins tonight and then against providence and ND, they are going to be in better shape than you think.

FSUNole said...

What's the best and worst seed FSU could get if they were to win the ACC Tourney or lose in the 1st round.

Also what does GT need to do to get in?

Shaudius said...

Seton Hall has only beaten 2 teams that are tournament locks. Pitt and Cornell, all their other wins are against bubble teams at best(ND, Louisville). Even beating Providence tonight and being 9-9 in the BE, they'd still only have those wins against tournament teams I listed above. Same with beating Notre Dame in the Big East tournament, they'd need to get some wins against teams that are actually going to make the tournament outside the bubble in the Big East tournament to feel like they had a decent shot at an at-large.

Anonymous said...

b101, Did you forget your own stance on UConn? You said they would win 3 of their last 4 and get in. Its funny you bash Lunardi when you guys were also wrong about UConn. b101 was wrong about both Minnesota and UConn.

Keith said...

Seth Davis said Connecticut needs 2 wins in the Big East tournament to earn an at large. Is that true?

Anonymous said...

the clowns on the ESPN Game Day set probaly still think Connecticut passes the "eye test". I applaud Doug Gottlieb for calling out Jay Bilas for being wrong about Connecticut passing the "eye test".

Anonymous said...

In all likelihood I could very much see UConn getting in the tournament with a perfect storm of big name school, coach illness pity, and extremely tough SOS providing cover for them getting in without deserving it at all. It'd be a great "storyline" school to let in.

SEC Dave said...

Mississippi came from behind to win at Arkansas. What do the Rebels have to do in Nashville to clinch a bid? Do they jump ahead of Mississippi State if they can't come back against Tennessee?

Bracketology 101 said...

What a crazy aftertoon/night. Here's some quick hits:

WVU would have an outside chance at a 1 if they win the Big East tourney. It would depend on who else won the power conference tournaments.

SDSU will have to make the MWC final to really like its at-large chances. Today's events definitely helped their chances down the road, though.

Winthrop's a 16 seed. Whether they're in the play-in game or not will depend on some other small conference results.

It's tough to see Texas falling past the 9 line.

If UConn just wins two Big East tourney games, they'll be hosting a first round NIT game in Gampel.

How were we wrong on UConn when we've had them out since Monday and most everyone else has them in?

Seton Hall needs a minimum of two Big East tourney wins to get an at-large. With their poor OOC resume, three is probably their magic number to get in.

We're kicking ourselves a litle bit about Virginia Tech because we supported them for so long, but they gave us no reasoon to believe they could win a big road game - and then they went out and did exactly that. They'll be back in the bracket on Monday. Sorry for doubting you, Mr. Delaney.

Anonymous said...

What is the deal with the eye test? Jimmy Dykes just said Miss. State passes the eye test and deserves a bid. Do you folks agree?

Zak said...

Mag, I'm interested to hear you say that. You think they leap ND if that's the scenario? That would give them 2 wins over ND and Seton Hall also has better computer numbers. Given what's happened today so far(URI losing) and what's happening right now (Miss. St. getting beat), it looks a lot better for Seton Hall.

Anonymous said...

Bracketology 101 seems to have a selective memory. They put Connecticut and Minnesota in the bracket. The reasoning was B101 said Connecticut would win 3 of their last 4. They only won 1 of the last 4. Bracketology 101 was way off on UConn.

JV said...

K-State is still trailing Iowa State. What happens to K-State's seed if they lose today?

Bracketology 101 said...

Lunardi, why are you posting anonymously?

Bracketology 101 said...

Kansas State would drop to a 3 with a loss, but we think they'll come back to win.

Anonymous said...

Haha anonymous/Lunardi actually has a good point. This is the one thing that bothers me about B101. you guys project ahead while most brackets like Lunardi do "season ending today". Any mistakes or strange choices they make you immeadeatly criticize (which is fine) while any of your curious choices you defend as saying we are projecting ahead, still fine.

When your projections are wrong (UCONN, Minnesota) you seem to want to be immune from criticism for them. Especially UCONN when you called out Lunardi for "sounding like our bracket from five days ago"

Anonymous said...

If UF loses to Kentucky and in the 1st round of the SEC Tourney, is the SEC a 3 bid league? Would 1 win in the SEC Tourney be enough to get them in?

Dan Holmes said...

I'm looking at the Syracuse-Le Moyne box score right now, and Wes Johnson/Rautins all played 30+ minutes, and the other starters played 20+. It's not as if the scrubs played the entire second half. No need for the personal remarks. When I went to Kansas, I went to my share of exhibition games, and we got the scrubs in and still won those games by 30/40 points every time.

Mark said...

B101 is never wrong.. Just ask them. Oh wait a minute, they said Mississipi State would beat Tennessee.

SEC Dave said...

Anonymous,
Jimmy Dykes said Florida is a lock cause of wins over Tennessee, Florida State and Michigan State.

Bracketology 101 said...

Florida probably just needs one SEC tourney win.

JV said...

ISU is trying to help Kansas State with missed free throws, but the Cyclones have outplayed the Wildcats.

Dan Holmes said...

Ridiculous that that game isn't broadcast live in Kansas City, by the way.

Anonymous said...

Craig: Will Lunardi still have K State a 1 seed after loss to Iowa State?

Anonymous said...

"Kansas State would drop to a 3 with a loss, but we think they'll come back to win.

7:56 PM"

Not true. Iowa State won in overtime.

Bracketology 101 said...

Where's the love in the comments section tonight?

We've definitely been wrong about some bubble teams over the last couple weeks (UConn, Minnesota, URI, Mississippi State). We can't dispute that. Unfortunately, though, that's the nature of the bubble. It's unpredictable and no bracketologist, no matter where they rank on the Bracket Matrix, knows how everything will shake out.

We make our projections every week based on a bunch of different factors and sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. Over the last four years, though, we can say - based on the stats - that we've been wrong less than anyone else when it comes to teams and seeds. Do we make mistakes? Definitely. On Selection Sunday, though, we plan on making less than everyone else does again.

Dan Holmes said...

Does anybody here actually expect B101 to get 100% of their predictions right? Even Vegas oddsmakers don't guarantee more than about 54% of their predictions. If it would be possible to know in advance how every game would shake out, there would be no point in watching college basketball.

Anonymous said...

B101,
Why don't you just let youe results do the talking? You make yourselves sound like jerks when you constantly rip other bracketologists and refuse to admit your own mistakes. No bracketologists are perfect, including B101.

Anonymous said...

I didn't mean to imply that this site isn't one of the best there is. There's nothing wrong with missing a few here or there, predicting games and projecting ahead is tough. My only problem is that with the project ahead setup, you guys are safe from being wrong "now". Any season ending today bracket is fair game for instant criticism, while when you guys make a mistake projecting, its usually not evident til three weeks later. Sometimes it seems to me you lose sight of that advantage you guys have in terms of getting criticism.

Anonymous said...

The problem, Dan, is that they love to criticize other bracket experts and ignore their own faults. You would think b101 was perfect the way they love to hammer away at other bracket experts. They seem to really hate Joe Lunardi.

Why don't they ever comment on Howard Salwasser's bracket?

Anonymous said...

You ready to drop Nova to the 4 line and put Pitt on the 2 line? Be consistent now...

Bracketology 101 said...

We deeply apologize for every projection we have ever gotten wrong. We won't let it happen again.

Now can we get back to enjoying (and discussing) the best three weeks of the year?

Dan Holmes said...

B101, where do you see Butler falling if UW-Milwaukee holds on?

Anonymous said...

WVU #2 seed in Big East? I think Pitt wins the 3 way tie-breaker. Do you think the Panthers merit a #3 in the Big Dance?

DCDuck said...

Virginia Tech's resume is still week. Their SOS is 157... and that's after playing a full season of ACC conference games. There's a reason for that. The ACC schedules are unbalanced, and Va. Tech just so happened to get the good draw of only having to play the other five teams in the top half of the standings once each. They went 3-2 in those games: Clemson, Wake and Georgia Tech are the only relevant wins on their entire resume.

mag900 said...

"Seton Hall has only beaten 2 teams that are tournament locks. Pitt and Cornell, all their other wins are against bubble teams at best(ND, Louisville)."

really? louisville now is a bubble team after beating syracuse? since when did a projected 8 seed become a non-lock after the regular season has ended?

if seton hall beats providence and then ND or SF, then they should be in. they don't have any bad losses and they will have beaten 3 tournament teams. what other teams on the bubble can claim that?

mag900 said...

how can you compare what b101 does -- project forward, which inherently requires guesswork -- to what lunardi does -- not project anything but simply analyze past results? the latter is MUCH easier and lunardi screws it up pretty much every week. it's impossible to project what many teams will do in future games without getting some things wrong. however, you shouldn't get anything wrong when simply looking at past results. that's what b101 rightly blasts lundardi for.

i don't like lunardi because he is very arrogant and very bad at what he does. arrogance + incompetence is a bad combo.

Anonymous said...

Seton Hall? Really? Why not just put the entire Big East in the field?

The conference is good, but certainly not as good as they like to beleive. Their unbalanced league schedule is a joke and most of the teams did not impress in the non-conference portion of the season.

Anonymous said...

I never compared them, in fact I contrasted them?! When Lunardi is wrong he is rightfully called on it, but B101 has safety as in when they are wrong, its not evident for several weeks, and no one really cares to critizce bad guesses from weeks ago (or when you do B101 brushes it off as petty... so we can get back to discussing the best three weeks in bball)


Basically with the project ahead setup they are free to criticize anybody until selection sunday without reciporcal criticism, a situation they seem to exploit.

Zak said...

Who else would you want other than Seton Hall if the do, in fact make it to the quarterfinals of the BET. We've seen Dayton, Rhode Island, and Mississippi State all drop big games tonight. Just because Seton Hall happens to be in the Big East doesn't make them any less qualified if they can get the wins and no other bubble teams step up.

Zak said...

What do you want them to do about the criticism then? They've acknowledged it and said they were wrong. You want them to hang a banner consisting of every prediction they got wrong? If you don't like that they criticize other brackets, don't read what they write.

Bracketology 101 said...

The questions for the competition that we do each week is meant to be a fun and entertaining piece. I guess we need to include questions for ourselves again like we have done in year's past.

Obviously there are some negatives to projecting ahead just like there are negatives to doing a purely prediction bracket as if the season was ending today. A few incorrect projections isn't going to change the way we do our bracket though.

Anonymous said...

I never understand the "then don't read them" complaint, its one of the most uselss on the internet, why doesn't B101 not read Lunardi and Palm's stuff then??? They certainly didn't acknolwedge hte criticism (and I'm not the anonymous who criticized any of their picks..I said how tough it is to be accurate) they sarcasticlly brushed it off.

I don't have a problem with their accuracy and I'm not looking for a banner. (they are very good and very informative), just thier attitude, escpeciaaly the "five days earlier" comment they made to Lunardi from about a week ago, i think?.

Anonymous said...

As a final comment, maybe I misunderstand the tone of your "Questions" piece, but sometimes it does rub me the wrong way. I'm not the guy looking over your every prediction and saying "you got that wrong, you got that wrong"

I love this site and consider it the best, but sometimes I think you overlook some things, but Lunardi sucks, no argumen t

Anonymous said...

Is Coastal Carolina going to get an at-large?

Shaudius said...

@mag900

"really? louisville now is a bubble team after beating syracuse? since when did a projected 8 seed become a non-lock after the regular season has ended?"

Since Louisville is bubble in? Louisville still has 11 losses this season, with 0 strong OOC wins, and only wins against tournament lock teams being against Cuse twice. Just because the Big East teams play shitty teams in the non-conference and then beat each other up in the middle and beat the bottom, along with occasionally stealing wins from the better teams in the conference, doesn't make their OOC schedules any better, and it doesn't make them magically not bubble teams.

Anonymous said...

First, I'm going to say that Seton Hall does not deserve to be in. However, the Big East is the #1 RPI conference for non-conference games. Every league except for the Pac 10 plays an unbalanced schedule. At least the Big East schedules only differ by 3 games as they all play the same 15 teams once and then 3 teams twice.

Anonymous said...

Normally, I might agree with Shaudius (other than the fact he doesn't know crap about Big East scheduling as they were the #1 RPI conference during the non-conference season), but the bubble and OOC resumes are so weak this year, I cannot. Duke, Va Tech, Louisville, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Cal, Mich St, etc. The list goes on and on. None of these teams have much of a OOC resume.

Louisville is safe.

Shaudius said...

I will amend, just because you BEAT shitty teams in the non-conference, doesn't make you suddenly a tournament team. Which is what Notre Dame did, which is what Louisville did, which is what South Florida did, which is what Seton Hall did, which is what uconn did.

I stand corrected though, the middle of the BE did PLAY good teams, which is why their OOC SoSes are good but they didn't BEAT good teams, which was my point.

Anyone can buff up their RPI with losses and then beat other people who buffed up their RPI with losses and look good, which is what the Big East teams on the bubble have all done.

mag900 said...

"Since Louisville is bubble in? Louisville still has 11 losses this season, with 0 strong OOC wins, and only wins against tournament lock teams being against Cuse twice. Just because the Big East teams play shitty teams in the non-conference and then beat each other up in the middle and beat the bottom, along with occasionally stealing wins from the better teams in the conference, doesn't make their OOC schedules any better, and it doesn't make them magically not bubble teams."

you clearly have no idea what you are talking about regarding BE scheduling so i'm not sure why i am replying to this tripe. uconn plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, duke, kentucky and texas all are shitty. syracuse plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, cal, dayton, florida, memphis and unc (it's not syracuse's fault they sucked this year because when they scheduled unc, unc was a projected top 10 team) all are "shitty" OOC teams. cincinnati plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, vandy, gonzaga, maryland, xavier and uab all are "shitty" OOC teams.

you also are clueless if you think louisville is on the bubble. is discounting wins against 1 seeds, if they are in conference wins, a new rule that the committee is using this year? i have not heard that before.

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget Gtown beat both Duke and Temple.

Marquette beat Xavier.

There isn't much there OOC for Louisville, Seton Hall, ND, or S Florida. However, it's been pointed out that there are protected seeds that don't have much OOC (Duke, Ohio St, Mich St), not to mention your Old Miss and Va Techs. If Va Tech is getting in, I see no way in hell that Louisville is not at least 2 seed lines above them.

Anonymous said...

Not Ole Miss.....Miss St

Shaudius said...

"you clearly have no idea what you are talking about regarding BE scheduling so i'm not sure why i am replying to this tripe. uconn plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, duke, kentucky and texas all are shitty. syracuse plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, cal, dayton, florida, memphis and unc (it's not syracuse's fault they sucked this year because when they scheduled unc, unc was a projected top 10 team) all are "shitty" OOC teams. cincinnati plays "shitty" OOC teams? yes, vandy, gonzaga, maryland, xavier and uab all are "shitty" OOC teams.

you also are clueless if you think louisville is on the bubble. is discounting wins against 1 seeds, if they are in conference wins, a new rule that the committee is using this year? i have not heard that before."

They again did not BEAT those teams, last I checked you have to WIN games to be considered a GOOD team. We were talking about specifically the bubble, so I'm not sure why you're bringing Cuse into this discussion, but how about "cal, dayton, florida, memphis and unc". Bubble, Bubble, Bubble, Bubble, Not Even Bubble. Yes people thought they'd be good, but they aren't, so yes they played bubble OOC opponents. But again, no one was talking about Cuse.

The middle of the BE didn't beat teams in the OOC, which is whats important. Way to single out Cincy, when the point is that South Florida, Notre Dame and Seton Hall are three Big East bubble teams that played shitty OOC schedules.

Dude, Louisville is on the bubble, whether you like it or not. I'm not discounting anything, I'm flat out saying, LOUISVILLE'S TWO QUALITY WINS THAT ARE NOT AGAINST OTHER BUBBLE TEAMS ARE AGAINST CUSE, THOSE ARE THEIR ONLY HUGE WINS ALL YEAR.

What about that makes them anything but a bubble team? Why do you think Virginia Tech is a bubble team? For the exact same freaking reason Louisville is one.

Bracketology 101 said...

With all the results of today, Seton Hall and USF are right in the thick of things for an at large. Things are breaking great for the Big East to potentially get 9 bids as we head into the Big East tourney. The top 8 teams in the league all finished above 500 and all look pretty safe for a bid. Despite USF and Seton Hall's relatively weak resumes if either one wins 2 games in the Big East tourney they will be right in the mix for an at large.

Bracketology 101 said...

Louisville is a lock to make the tourney, they are no longer a bubble team.

Anonymous said...

Louisville's 2 wins over a 1 seed >>>>>> Va Tech's 3 wins over 7 seeded Clemson and 10 seeded Wake and now not in the field @Georgia Tech.

Both have nothing OOC, but Louisville is higher on the s-curve no questions asked.

Find me any bubble team, any!!, that has a great OOC resume. Usually won't happen. That's why they're bubble teams.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous, that could have been Texas had they lost a few more games.

Sean said...

What do you think the chances of Old Dominion getting an at-large bid are assuming they lose in the next round?

They're only 1-4 against the RPI Top 50, and would have nine losses.

Anonymous said...

If Marquette loses to UConn (assuming UConn beats St John's), how nervous should they be?

Likewise, if Seton Hall beats Notre Dame, how nervous should Notre Dame be?

I'd ask the same question of Louisville/Cincy, but you said Louisville is a lock now.

Final question on UConn. If they win 3 games in the BE tourney, they'll have beaten St Johns, Marquette, and Nova. Where would that put them? Would they have to win a 4th against Cuse in the semis? And yes, I know this is never going to happen, but I'm just wondering.

Anonymous said...

You are right about the SEC seeding. Ole Miss and Mississippi State should in no way be getting byes in the conference tournament.

With that being said, do you think the seeding is actually hurt both Ole Miss and State? Instead of playing a very winnable game in which they would be favored, they will now play teams like Tennessee and Florida.

What do the Rebs need to do to get in? Beat Tennessee?

Mothball's Blog said...

Dear B101, On behalf of the Hokie Nation, we accept your apology. And what hostility tonight toward the best bracketology site out there. As a VT fan, when you predicted us out, I didn't like it, but I respected it because you explained why: you expected us to lose to GT. Fair enough and I agreed. Thankfully you were wrong and have seen the error of your ways for temporarily losing faith in a good VT team (which you've supported all along.) Yes,our OCC schedule was horrible, but I think we've taken care of business in ACC play (10-6, first round bye.) Plus, despite a bad OCC sched., we didn't have any bad losses. It's one thing to have easy OCC and lose games, but we didn't. We're dancing. Go Hokies.

Howard Salwasser said...

Hopefully you had the telly on SportsCenter about 20-25 minutes ago, if not, you'll be happy to know that UConn is not even on Joey Brackets' first four list. They along with Rhode Island have been replaced with Arizona State and Memphis.

Bracketology 101 said...

Quick hits,

The 2 Mississippi's benefit from the byes since both teams need big wins at this point. Both teams would be in good shape if they can make the SEC final. Trips to the Semis would probably not be enough for a bid. Mississippi is looking better right now since they have some wins over tourney teams (UTEP and Kansas State) and they have a better chance to pick up a better win in their first SEC tourney game.

Right now, Marquette and ND are looking very good to get a bid regardless of the Big East tourney. Seton Hall and USF each need 2 wins this week to get into the mix and UConn would need 3 wins to get in the mix and 4 wins to get in.

If ODU lost to VCU on Sunday it would be a long week. They may look good tomorrow, but after everything plays out things could change drastically. We like ODU's chances should they get to the final.

Anonymous said...

Again, explain why Pitt isn't a 2 seed, WVU a 3, and Nova a 4.

Let's look at records:

Pitt: 24 wins, 13 in BE, #2 in BE. 3 wins against top 10 rpi, 8 against top 50 rpi. 1-0 against Nova and 1-1 against WVU. Has the best win of the bunch in a win AT a number one seed.

WVU: 24 wins, 13 in BE, #3 in BE. 1 win against top 10 rpi, 7 against top 50 rpi. 1-1 against Nova and 1-1 against Pitt.

Nova: 24 wins, 13 in BE, #4 in BE. 1 win against top 10 rpi. 7 against top 50 rpi. 0-1 against Pitt, 1-1 against WVU.

Please explain, referencing actual games these teams actually played and their actual records. Thank you.

And if WVU has an "outside chance" of being a 1 seed if they win the BE tourney, then Pitt has an even better chance, right?

JGibson said...

Pitt lost to Indiana. WVU has nothing that bad. WVU beat Ohio State, and that win counts more than you would think based on Ohio State's RPI ranking.

Anonymous said...

If Seton Hall and South Florida are still alive, what about Minnesota? A win against Iowa puts them at 18-12, .500 in conference and with 4 wins against Ohio State, Butler (neutral), Wisconsin and at Illinois. At least as impressive a group as Hall's Pitt, Cornell, Louisville and Notre Dame wins, and better than any four South Florida can boast.

I'd just as soon get rid of all of these and give the bids to a second team from the Colonial, Valley, Pac 10 and a team like USU if it should fall in the WAC tourney. C'mon bid stealers!

Bracketology 101 said...

It is close between WVU, 'Nova and Pitt, but Pitt has the weakest OOC resume amongst the 3. Everything will get figured out in the BE tourney.

Anonymous said...

Pitt lost to Indiana a hundred years ago missing its only returning starter due to injury and its second most experienced player was suspended the first half the season, including that game. Imagine if they used that criteria last year - Louisville might not have made the tourney instead of being the overall number one seed. Nice try though.

More info:

Pitt against...

top 10
3-1
top 25
3-3
top 50
8-3

WVU against...

top 10
2-3
top 25
4-4
top 50
7-5

Bracketology 101 said...

Minnesota is still in the mix, they need to win 3 in a row starting tomorrow and they will likely be dancing.

mag900 said...

pomeroy:

wvu: 7
villanova: 15
pitt: 29

pitt did absolutely nothing OOC with a best win against nit-bound #65 wichita state. also, with an unbalanced BE schedule one set of 13 wins doesn't necessarily equal another set of 13 wins. also, as pointed out above, a truly horrific loss to indiana dings pitt.

mag900 said...

"Pitt lost to Indiana a hundred years ago missing its only returning starter due to injury and its second most experienced player was suspended the first half the season, including that game."

dec 8 wasn't "a hundred years ago." it actually was this season so it counts against pitt. losing by 10 on a neutral court to the 175th ranked team is horrible loss whether you are missing a player or not.

you asked why wvu and villanova are seeded ahead of pitt and people have explained why. you can process the information that has been provided to you or you can ignore it and continue to be dumbfounded over why pitt is being seeded lower than the other 2 teams. your choice.

Anonymous said...

Wow, i guess that's why louisville was seeded so poorly last year after all the losses in the noncon...

Again, the only returning starter and season missed half the season due to INJURY and the second most experienced player missed half the season due to academic suspension, yet STILL ended with the best OVERALL resume of the 3.

But i guess one loss last year under those circumstances dwarfs the entire season...brilliant. And erase that WIN AT a number one seed...how many teams have one of those?

wiley said...

Go ahead put Va Tech in the tourney. Half the teams lose in the first round anyway. I feel very bad for coastal carolina. They go 28-6 with the only schedule they can make. Who is gonna play them? Is it their fault they get no chance? Fact: 7 teams have 28 wins or more in the nation. Only one will not get in. RIP in C. Carolina. Trivia:Name the only 30 win team in the nation.

Anonymous said...

And "unbalanced schedule"? Pitt Nova and WVU all played each other and settled this on the court - which is why pitt is #2. And only one of the 3 beat the top team in the BE AT the top team in the BE - i'll let you take a guess which team that was.

There's a reason pitt is #2 in the BE and nova and the hoopies are not...

Anonymous said...

Nova has no losses to any team with an RPI over 50. West Virginia has one such loss (Notre Dame). Pittsburgh has 4 such losses including the aforementioned one to #220 Indiana.

Bracketology 101 said...

Two of Murray State's 30 wins were against non-DI schools, so they're really 28-4. Still, the Racers have had an amazing year and are going to be a tough, tough out for some 12 or 13 seed in the tournament.

Bracketology 101 said...

Kansas' 29 wins are the most of any DI team. Kentucky can tie that number tomorrow if they beat Florida.

Anonymous said...

Is someone really trying to lament the loss of Coastal Carolina from the field? I mean, I feel bad for a team that has a great record in conference and/or overall and loses in the tournament to a team they are most likely better than. But take that up with the conference for handing out the bid like that. It's not up to the NCAA to let in a team that obviously is not a top 34 team because they got screwed out of an auto bid.

Also, Coastal Carolina only has 24 D1 wins (i.e., the only wins that count).

Anonymous said...

So losses AT the 56, 64, and 67 teams are terrible now? And again, dwarf a 3-1 record against top 10 rpi? And a win AT the #3 rpi team, a one seed?

How about 8-1 down the stretch? #2 in the BE ABOVE WVU AND NOVA?

Are we just going by polls here?

Did any of you notice Louisvilles non con losses last year to teams ABOVE 50 RPI? ANYONE? And they still got the OVERALL number one seed?

wileydan said...

Not lamenting about Coastal Carolina, just don't like giving cruddy teams a chance to beat 3 teams and get in the tourney. Cornell is playing great but if they lost in a possible (but not now) Ivy Tourney would they have been safe? If I was play Murray St. I would feel scared as the 4 seed.

Anonymous said...

"#2 in the Big East above West Virginia and Nova"? They all tied at 13-5 in conference.

I could really care about Louisville's resume last year. Let's please stick with this year.

By your logic, this year's Louisville team should be a 2 seed because they beat a 1 seed twice. Never mind their bad losses.

If Pitt wants a 2 seed, win the BE tourney.

Zak said...

Coastal Carolina is not Cornell. Not even close. If Coastal Carolina was really worth of making the tournament, they would have beaten a pretty bad Winthrop team AT HOME. Not to mention a few other losses on the schedule that point to CCU not being a very good team.

The argument that they can't schedule any decent teams is complete BS, too. They had Duke on the schedule this year. Other mid-major teams have managed to schedule quality opponents. Nobody forced Coastal Carolina to schedule 4 D-2 schools.

MattLion said...

Wow, just got home from a night out and this comments thread might be just as entertaining.

Let me review some of the stuff here -

- People think B101 isn't hard enough on themselves and they like to rip excessively on others. Well, at the end of the day, B101's final bracket is usually the best of the bunch out there, or very close to it. Are they a bit arrogant? Maybe. But they do a great job with this site, and it's always entertaining. Just don't rely on them to make bets in Vegas (UConn, cough, VT, cough, etc).

- Anyone who thinks Louisville is no longer a lock is sorely mistaken. The bubble is weak this year and 2 wins over a likely #1 seed will be plenty. There is a history of bubble teams making it in with 2 wins over other high seeded teams even though the rest of their resume is lacking (BC a few years ago did this - they beat a very good Miami team twice and did nearly nothing else, but got in.) Louisville's BE Tourney performance is for seeding only. They will likely be in the 8-10 range with a shot to go higher.

- VT is in. They will be seeded lower than they expect to be, but no 10-6 team from the ACC has ever been left out in the BCS era if my memory serves me right. If anyone has an idea about that, let me know....

- For Pitt to leapfrog WVU and Vill in NCAA seeding, they need to last longer in the BE tournament and perhaps win it. A Pitt BE Tourney title will likely get them a 2 seed.

- I feel bad for the A-10. I live in the northeast so I'm semi-familiar with most of the teams, and the top half of the conference is really good. However, URI and Dayton severely underachived at the end of the year, and St. Louis sleptwalked through the first half of the season. As a result, it looks like a 3-bid league. I was hoping a few weeks back it would be a return to the A-10 glory years of the late 90s, when 4-5 bids was pretty common.

Wow, what a long post. Perhaps I should contribute to the site, haha.

DCDuck said...

Zak, if VT is in, they can't be any higher than a 12. The committee has come down with an iron fist concerning teams that load their non-conference schedules with cupcakes and pushovers (i.e. Penn State last year).

MattLion said...

There's a bit of irony in the VT story and the comparisons to PSU from last season -

PSU attempted to upgrade their non-conference schedule this year as a result of being left out last year. They ended up getting VT to come to their place. VT had no idea PSU was going to fall off the map this year, or else their (2-point, last second) victory in Happy Valley would be the crown jewel of their awful non-conference schedule.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to find a school that doesn't load their schedule up with cupcakes and pushovers. Most teams fighting for an NCAA bid play in a quality early tournament and 2-3 other "good" opponents, and then load up with a bunch of people they should beat, usually at home. It's all whether you can provide enough cover for the cupcake wins you get, and that the cupcake wins aren't absolutely terrible (250-350) cupcakes, and are just mildly awful (150-200) cupcakes.

Never mind that there's no practical difference between beating a 200 RPI team and a 300 RPI in most cases. In either case a team that loses to 200+ teams isn't going to make the tournament, but somehow a win over one is acceptable, but a win over the other is a crime against your RPI and SOS and should be held against you.

Brad said...

Hm. The Miners just keep winning, don't they? Beating Memphis on their floor, beating UAB twice, beating Tulsa twice, proving again and again an again they are the best in C-USA, yet still can't lock up an at large. Now we have a conversation about Memphis. Hm. No, absolutely no historical favortism there.

JGibson said...

Here's the thing: At the very top, you can't just take the records against RPI top 10, 25, 50. Bad losses matter. This isn't the bubble, where everyone has bad losses. West Virginia only has two losses to RPI 51+, and both are in the 51-100 range. Pitt has four losses to RPI 51+, including one sub-200 loss. Villanova only has one loss to RPI 51+. And as I mentioned, West Virginia has a win over a fully healthy Ohio State. RPI-wise, that's only a win over #28, but evaluated fully, that basically gives WVU another top 10 win that doesn't exist when you just look at the team sheets.

Anonymous said...

On Lunardi's Sunday bracket math, he still has Kansas State a one seed even though he says that they lost last night. How many losses do they need to drop down to a two seed?

Anonymous said...

Louisville last year vs Pittsburgh this year.

Both had no OOC resume. However, Lville was 16-2 in the BE conference and won both the regular season and conference tourney outright.

There's a big difference between that and finishing 13-5 in a 3 way tie for 2nd with 2 teams that are and have been considered better than Pitt the whole season.

JGibson said...

Brad - I'm pretty sure any talk about Memphis as an at-large implies UTEP locked up a bid. At this point, I don't think there is any question UTEP is in.

Anonymous said...

A question that was raised earlier... Can you give us a best/worst case scenario for Florida state, say they end up the 5 seed and drop to miami as the worst, and getting the bye, then beating clemson, maryland, and duke as the best case

Bracketology 101 said...

Memphis is in the mix for an at large because of their 2 wins over UAB. It's not unthinkable though for C-USA to end up with just 1 bid if UTEP wins the conference tourney. We think there is better chance that the conference get 2 bids though and Memphis now has the best shot of getting the bid.

The Pac-10 is getting very interesting now with all the bubble teams faltering. Washington and Arizona State have both played well down the stretch and should they meet in the semis, as expected, the winner of that game may be tourney bound regardless of what happens in the final (unless Cal goes down early).

Bracketology 101 said...

IF FSU loses their first ACC tourney game, they'll probably be a 9. If they win the ACC tourney, they could get as high as a 5.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, B101, for all the FSU questions. What happens if they get the 5, beat miami, get a second win over VT, then lose a close one to duke?

Bracketology 101 said...

Probably a 7.

Anonymous said...

UAB is 61 in pomeroy's ratings, 56 in sagarin's ratings, and is 41 in the RPI, but only owns 1 top 50 win, over another mid-major in butler... How can those 2 wins POSSIBLY make up the basis of an at large case for memphis?

Bracketology 101 said...

Two head-to-head-wins over UAB (with a possible third coming in the C-USA tourney) and a two game better finish in conference makes up for it.

Jeff said...

"I'd like to find a school that doesn't load their schedule up with cupcakes and pushovers."

Temple.

We're required to play 5 MAC teams as part of their agreement to let us play football in the MAC, so we have no control over that part of our OOC schedule, but other than that, the only meaningless cupcake we played was Delaware. We play Penn because they're part of the Big 5.

-Kansas (home)
-Villanova (home)
-Georgetown (away)
-Siena (home)
-Virginia Tech (neutral)
-Seton Hall (away)
-St. John's (neutral)
-Penn State (home)

Obviously, it's top heavy, but very few teams challenge themselves OOC with three teams like KU, Nova and Georgetown.

Anonymous said...

Makes up for what? My problem with the RPI is that it's too "Winning games" oriented. It doesn't matter who you beat, as long as you beat them. memphis' best wins this year are UAB, at UAB, and At Marshall. As of right now, UAB isn't in your bracket, and marshall isn't even really a NIT team... How can a team with 0 wins over NCAA tournament teams possibly be an at large worthy team? Their 88 SOS lies, since their only 4 OOC games with any merit were losses, and their conference sucks. For that matter, how does utep, with also 0 wins over teams with at large berths in your bracket, deserve a 9 seed over teams like UF, who have at least 3, and 4 with mississippi st?

Anonymous said...

Duke played 8 100 top 100 RPI teams in the OOC

mag900 said...

jeff, #231 ball state, #211 bowling green and #244 northern illinois aren't cupcakes too? there's nothing wrong with scheduling some easy games preconference -- EVERY team does it -- so don't pretend that temple is the only team in the country that doesn't. it does just like everyone else.

Bracketology 101 said...

Memphis' resume is weak, but right now they are the 2nd best team in C-USA. If they make the final and lose to UTEP they have a chance at an at large. With the bubble options out there right now we wouldn't be shocked if the committee just gives a team like Memphis a bid to spread the wealth a little bit instead of putting a GT in with a 7-9 ACC mark or a .500 Big East team (USF or Seton Hall). A lot may change and some of the big conference bubble teams could go on runs this week and then Memphis will need to win the conference tourney to have any chance. In the end we think that C-USA will be a 2 bid league, with either UTEP losing in the conference tourney or someone sneaking in as one of the last teams in.

Anonymous said...

Wow, this was one of the crazier comments section I've read on here in years....

115 comments? Way to get the readers all pissed off. :)

MattLion, you sure you don't work for B101?

Hey B101, keep a close eye on your Troy team. they should be in a good, tough match up with South Alabama today....could be another Coastal Carolina fiasco....ha.

C'mon people, Winthrop has a history of winning that tournament and came up huge....(having won it's ninth Big South Tournament title in 12 years).

Maybe there is merit to expanding the field to (X) number, and having the Top 2 teams in every major conference get an automatic bid and bye, while the mid majors and smaller conferences get the top team in, and then the rest of the teams all around can fight for the remaining at large bids which puts the emphasis back on the regular season meaning more than it already does in some cases....

I could enjoy watching that?

Thoughts?

Signed,
- A Sun Belt Fan.

DCDuck said...

mag900 didn't seem to read the fact that Temple is contractually obliged to play five MAC schools in their non-conference basketball schedule. Those three teams you listed are MAC schools.

It's difficult for some mid-majors to get the big boys to play them. Teams like VCU have trouble finding partners for home-and-home series due to the fact that their home court has been known to be an exceedingly difficult place to win. It would be easy to say "well yeah, go play better teams", but it doesn't always work that way.

mag900 said...

right, temple went out and signed a contract to play 3 MAC schools just like other BCS schools sign contracts to play bad teams. was temple forced into that contract or did temple sign it on its own volition? like i wrote earlier, there's nothing wrong with playing easy teams early in the season -- just don't act like temple is the ONLY team in the country that doesn't do it.

the whole "it's hard for mid-majors to schedule BCS schools" myth is just that -- a myth. there are plenty of early season tournaments that are open to mid-majors and those courts are neutral so you can skip going to CIS or the Carrier Dome altogether.

Temple = Overrated said...

Unlike most BCS teams, Temple's schedule is filled with cupcKes IN-CONFERENCE. Hence, the 62 Overall SOS despite having Georgetown, Kansas, Villanova, and Virginia Tech on the schedule. It sure would be nice to have 7-8 automatic conference wins before the season even starts (St. Bon, GW, UMass, St. Joe's, La Salle, Fordham, Duq.). BCS schools don't have that luxury.

Anonymous said...

B101, even if they make the final(losing to UTEP), they STILL would have 0 wins over tournament teams... Does your answer imply that the committee will take 2 C-USA regarldless of worthiness simply because they think the C-USA deserves 2 bids? Will this also be the case in the Pac-Ten? Yes, GT is 7-9 in the ACC, but they have 4 top 40 RPI wins, by my count, (all 4 over tourney teams). Maybe GT has proven, time and again, that they are not exceptionally better than the rest of the top 30-40 teams in the country, but they've shown they can hang with them, and have a win over a 1 seed, whereas memphis' best win is on your last eight out.

Bracketology 101 said...

A-Sun Fan,

That's not a bad suggestion for tourney expansion.

Our "plan" for an expanded tournament would be to expand the tournament to 68 teams and have the final eight bubble teams play each other in sort of a "Bubble Buster Tuesday" event. The winner of those four games would be slotted into the 12 line in the final bracket. The plan would give the all of final eight bubble teams (which would be picked by the selection committee) a chance to earn their way in, and it would also give more mid-majors who would get left out normally a chance to get in. "Bubble Buster Tuesday" would be played all day (four games) at a neutral site.

Anyone on board?

Bracketology 101 said...

We are just saying that with the bubble being so weak this year, we wouldn't be shocked to see more mid-majors teams getting at-larges.

Rebels fan said...

With UNLV's win over Wyoming they finished strong in the regular season are they considered a "lock"? You have Louisville as a lock who UNLV handled at home.

Bracketology 101 said...

UNLV's in.

Anonymous said...

Illini - At-large done? Or one more chance in B10 tourney? If so, how many wins needed?

On the other side of that game, how far will Wisconsin be underseeded again this season?

Kyle said...

Palm just released his "Projecting the Field." He finally has just 3 A-10 teams in.

But he also has Memphis and Seton Hall in (his bracket is as if the season ended today, remember.)

Also, Mississippi is in as an 11 and not on the last 4 in list.

The way the bubble is this year, and everybody's different views of the teams, I definitely do not envy the selection committee members who have to determine who should be in the tourney.

Anonymous said...

If ODU loses to VCU today how good is their chance of making the field? If Saint Mary's loses today, who is ahead in your bracket tomorrow?

Haigin88 said...

It would be great TV if Louisville ended up 8 or 9, and was placed in the same region as #1 Kentucky.

Temple = JOKE said...

Still trying to find a good win on Temple's schedule besides Villanova. Siena - Nope, try again. VA Tech - Not a very good team (lost 3 out of last 5) Seton Hall - give me a break! And your conference is laughable - please just concentrate on what you're good at like field hockey and cross country.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the guy hating on temple. One good win does not a 3 seed make, and just because you are the champion of the sixth best conference doesn't reserve you a high seed either. I think Tennessee and Pittsburgh both deserve honors on the 3 line above NM and Temple. Maybe wisconsin also.

Anonymous said...

Stating that you can't find another good OOC win for temple other than villanova is like saying that if you take away JFK, you can't name another president that lee harvey oswald shot.

Anonymous said...

You guys are picking on the wrong 3 seed.

Mich St: RPI=26
Record vs RPI top 25: 2-2
Record vs RPI top 50: 3-5
Record vs RPI top 100: 8-7
Wins against likely tourney teams: @#11 Purdue (without Hummel), vs #18 Wisconsin, vs #35 Gonzaga
No really bad losses (worse was vs #84 UNC)

Temple: RPI=14
Record vs RPI top 25: 2-3
Record vs RPI top 50: 6-3
Record vs RPI top 100: 10-5
Wins against likely tourney teams: vs 9 Nova, vs #20 Xavier, vs #38 Siena, neutral #49 Va Tech
Again, no really bad losses (worse was against #78 St John's)

Temple's resume is better than Mich St's. Period. I would definitely put Pitt and Wisky above Mich St though.

Anonymous said...

There are more spots available than folks think... Big East only gets 8 in, the Big Ten gets 4, and SEC gets 3. I can't believe the UW Huskies aren't anywhere in the discussion, even with an RPI of 49 and having won 9 of their last 11 (including four straight on the road).

Miss St., Illinois, Dayton, etc. are all mediocre and are playing horrible basketball down the stretch.

Sure, the Pac10 is down, but that could mean 3 teams instead of the usual 6. Jimmy Dykes and others can stuff their eye test criteria--it's just another way to say I've got no evidence to support this but here's what i think. And we all know they don't watch west coast games...

Go OWLS - We are a top 12 team! said...

No bad losses??

Did you forget about the 32 POINT LOSS to Kansas at home?

What about the loss to Charlotte? Yes, Charlotte the team that has lost 6 out of their last 7 games.

Again, no impressive wins minus Villanova.

For the dumbass with the jfk anology..UNC beat Ohio State early in the season too so I guess they deserve to go to the tournment with that great victory. One good win doesn't get you a 3 seed especially when you're in a terrible conference.

Bracketology 101 said...

Temple's OOC resume is pretty solid. They have 4 OOC wins over teams that could make the tourney. There aren't too many other teams that can say that.

Anonymous said...

How do Florida's Tournament chances look now?

Anonymous said...

4 wins over tourney teams? Villanova of course. But as for others...Va Tech will need to do very well in their conference tournament to get selected. Siena must win their tourney or they will not be in. Siena has 0 wins vs. rpi top 50.

mag900 said...

at 10-6 in the acc, va tech is in even if they lose in the 1st round of the acct. siena is in too.

Anonymous said...

Temple should be a 5 seed, period.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand all of the Temple hatred here, I thought both the numbers and the actual results were pretty rock solid. Yes, they had a few cupcakes on the schedule, and for contractual agreement or not, it doesn't matter. Everybody has a few. They scheduled quite a few high-caliber games, and won some of them as well. As a mid-major, they have done exactly what is asked of mid-majors every year around this time.

Anonymous said...

If Va Tech loses the 4/5 matchup in the ACC tourney, should they be worried?

Bracketology 101 said...

Temple has a non-conference SOS of 43, better than Pitt, Villanova, and Purdue amongst others. Their non-conference RPI is 21, better than Villanova, Pitt, and Ohio State.

Jeff said...

LOL I love everyone hating on my Owls. Last time I checked, Kentucky's resume isn't exactly fantastic.
FWIW, Siena was either #25 or #26 in the preseason, so that was a pretty big win at the time. Not our fault they didn't continue on by beating top teams.

We love the hate though. Keep it comin. Go Owls!

Temple = Overrated said...

"Temple has a non-conference SOS of 43, better than Pitt, Villanova, and Purdue amongst others. Their non-conference RPI is 21, better than Villanova, Pitt, and Ohio State."

Umm of course they have a better non-conference SOS than Pitt, 'Nova, and Purdue. When you play in a conference full of terrible teams you have to play a tough non-conference schedule if you wanna be able to compete for an at-large.

Overall their SOS is ranked #62. That's behind all the teams you mentioned and only Purdue is even remotely close. Temple is a decent team, but there's a reason they're #25 in kenpom's computer ratings. That's where they should be seeded (6-8). Giving Temple (and New Mexico for that matter) a top 4 seed is laughable.

Jeff said...

Giving Temple a 6, 7 or 8 is laughable. Kenpom can shove his computer up his posterior.

K said...

Jeff,

How can you disagree with seeding Temple 6-8 if Pomeroy has them at #25?

While we're at it, let's give Wisconsin a 1 seed (#3), BYU (#5) and Maryland (#8) 2 seeds, Kentucky (#9) and Baylor (#12) 3s, Cal (#17) a 5, and #23 Utah State a 6.

And UNC is 63 in KenPom, can we find a spot in the field of 65 for them too?

Brycenle said...

West Virginia controls their own destiny for the final #1 seed. If they win the Big East tournament they will have beaten Georgetown,Villanova and probably Louisville,Pittsburg h and Syracuse in a 12 day span. They already have an RPI of 4 and SOS of 2. If they win the BE tournament their SOS will be 1 and their RPI will either be 1 or 2. Even the other #1 seeds won't have that kind of a resume. They will definitely have to win the BE tournament for this to be the case, but if they pull it off then the debate over the final #1 seed will be over