Saturday, March 10, 2007

Bracketology 101's Selection Sunday Schedule

All times are Eastern and approximate.

12:30 PM - B101 posts 1-4 and 14-16 seed lines

1:00 PM - Live One Hour Online Chat (link will be posted)

3:00 PM - B101 posts 5-10 seed lines

3:30 PM - B101 posts 11-13 seed lines

5:00 PM - Live Online Chat until Selection Show (6:00PM)


Here is B1o1's schedule of events for the big day. Today we will be preparing our final bracket and will not be posting a new bracket until Sunday and we will try to do so by following the above schedule. We will still answer all questions and comments posted.

Bubble Breakdown

Friday's chaos actually made the picture a little bit clearer. The A-10 will send a bid stealer to the dance (Xavier is safe for a bid) so that eliminated one bid. We anticipated a WAC bid stealer so Nevada losing does not affect our bracket. Here is how we see things breaking on the bubble going into tomorrow.

Everyone that was a nine seed or better in Friday's bracket is still safe for a bid. Georgia Tech we will consider safe on the 10 line. We will throw Texas Tech into the group of bubble teams only because of the fact that Kansas State blew them out and because Oklahoma State is still alive in the Big 12 tourney. Here is our list of bubble teams fighting for the final 6 at-large bids...
Texas Tech
Old Dominion
Purdue
Kansas State
Illinois
Syracuse
Stanford
Air Force
Drexel
Missouri State
West Virginia
Florida State
Arkansas/Mississippi State winner

We see no one outside of this group having a chance for an at-large bid. Right now if we were to pick six from this list we would probably go with Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Purdue, Illinois, Kansas State, and Syracuse. We are expecting Kansas State, Purdue and Illinois to all lose today and so long as these losses are not embarrassing it should not hurt them too much. As games play out today things will likely become clearer.

26 comments:

Dan Holmes said...

I'm hoping that the margin by which Kansas State beat TTech today impresses the selection committee.

Anonymous said...

I don't know, even with the loss yesterday FSU is 42 in the RPI and now has the 17th strongest schedule in the nation. It must also be noted that they have not lost to a team outside the top 43 RPI. In addition to considering the injury of Toney Douglas, I think their in. ESPN and Dick Vitale also have them in. FSU also has a higher RPI and SOS than Drexel, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Virginia, Michigan, Mississippi State, West Virginia, and Stanford. All of these factors combined have to give them an edge.

Bryan said...

It has to be said though that even though FSU didn't have any losses outside the RPI top 50, they only had 5 wins out of 17 games within the RPI top 50.. how many chances do they get? I applaud FSU for taking on the stronger schedule after their snub last year, and being an FSU fan, I would love to see them get a chance in the tourney... however, the way the conference tourneys are shaping up, and with critical losses by teams like Xavier and Nevada yesterday, I just don't think there's enough room for FSU to be in the field.

big ten sucks said...

I just don't think Purdue's win over Iowa is enough to get them in.....Iowa finishing 4th in the conference is proof that the conference is very weak. I personally think every team outside of OSU and Wisconsin should be on the bubble....what has Indiana done that is so impressive to be a lock????.....they were just very good at home, thats about it. They're biggest OOC win was at UConn who ended up finishing 12th in the Big East.....3-8 against the ACC is even further proof that teams like Purdue and Michigan St. really don't stack up against FSU and Georgia Tech...the fact that OSU and Wisconsin are breezing through a non-important conference tourney for them shows there isn't much talent from 3 on down......

Anonymous said...

ESPN had FSU in their bracket yesterday, but they are not in today after their loss to UNC yesterday.. there are too many deserving teams other than FSU. FSU will probably be a 1 seed in the NIT.

fsu gets screwed yet again said...

i just don't understand how a loss to UNC was that damaging....last i checked UNC dominated many teams this season...and only lost 1 OOC....they should be a one seed, they beat Ohio St., so there is no reason Wisconsin should be ahead of UNC.....UNC is just penalized for playing the most talented conference in the country, i mean Duke who finished 7th handidly beat Georgetown, the number 1 team in the big east....i think its just ludacris that FSU is being bumped out by teams like Kansas St and Purdue because they both beat mediocre teams in their league and FSU lost to arguable the most talented team in the country behind Florida, whom I might remind FSU beat.......as a realist I know FSU won't get in, but they are far more deserving than Purdue, Kansas St., Old Dominion (a 12 game win streak in conference play should not mean that much, especially when you almost lose to freakin' towson in your conference tourney and then get blown out by an NIT team in the semis)

Anonymous said...

Kansas State deserves to go to the Big Dance. They finished fourth in an extremely underated Big 12 Conference with 6 teams with 20 wins in it and three Final Four contenders in Kansas, Texas A&M, and Texas. All the bracketologists and sports sites have them in the last four out column and for the life of me I cannot understand why. They beat Texas and if Texas ends up a 4 seed and K-State does not get in it would be saying that there are about 30 teams between K-State and Texas and K-State was the only to beat Texas on its home floor this season!!!!! Also K-State walloped Texas Tech by 21 and everyone says they are in, but not K-State. Does anyone agree with me here!?!?!?

Bracketology 101 said...

In regards to the comments about FSU...Dick Vitale saying they are in means nothing. Vitale will just look at a teams profile and say whether or not they should make it and not at the larger picture. Most years FSU's profile would be enough to get a bid but with the way things have gone this week and with the abundance of quality bubble teams it just doesn't look good for them. Especially now since N.C. St is in the ACC final and may steal a bid. Georgia Tech now looks a little vulnerable should N.C. St. be able to pull off another shocker. At this point being the 8th team out of the ACC is not a good place to be.

To the Big Ten Sucks poster...I don't know if you meant to say that Indiana's best OOC road win was at UConn and it came out wrong but Indiana does have a OOC win over Southern Illinois on their resume. The Big 10 is a tough call right now. Indiana is in but they won't be seaded higher then 9. Then you have Purdue and Illinois who will be either the last teams in or out. It hurt Purdue since they were only able to pick up a win over Iowa in the Big 10 tourney while Illinois was able to pick up 2 wins including another win over Indiana. Even though both teams lost today by double digits it may be worth something that Purdue was actually competitive in their matchup against Ohio State. Both Purdue and Illinois will be tough calls tomorrow.

One comment on the RPI. Last year the committee didn't seem to use the RPI as much in selecting the field and this year we will probably see a similar situation. There are a bunch of teams in the 50's that are likely to get bids (Georgia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, Kansas State, Texas Tech) while there are a number of teams in the 30's who may be left out (Air Force, Arkansas, Missouri State, Bradley). Picking the last teams in this year will be much harder then the past couple years.

Bracketology 101 said...

There are a lot of reasons to pick on Kansas State. The Wildcats only had one regular season marquee win in conference (@ Texas) and the combined record of the teams they beat for their other nine conference wins was 83-93. They also have more bad losses (@ New Mexico, @ Colorado State, and @ Nebraska) than they do quality wins (USC and @ Texas), their RPI at 57 is a little rough, and their 21-point win over Texas Tech is negated a little bit by the fact that the Wildcats lost by 10 at home to the Red Raiders earlier in the year.

That doesn't mean that they won't end up with a bid, though. In fact, history essentially guarantees them a bid. Since the tournament expanded to 64 (and now 65) teams, 169 of 169 teams from the Big 6 conferences that finished with at least 20 wins, at least 10 conference wins, and finished fourth or better in the league made the tournament. Will Kansas State make it 170 for 170, despite a padded league record? Crushing Texas Tech and playing well against Kansas the last two days surely helped, and it will make them one of the most debated teams over the next 24 hours.

In the meantime, Kansas State fans need to root hard against Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma State, were to win the Big XII (they're down two to Texas in the second half as we're posting this), Kansas State would be out.

tvp said...

^Every ACC team with 20 wins has made it since the field expanded to 64. Clemson will probably break that streak this year, but FSU should be in. I haven't seen anything convincing as to why K State, Stanford, or ODU, for examples, are more deserving.

Of course, I hope NC State shrinks the bubble by one tomorrow! Go Pack!

Anonymous said...

I agree with u on some of your points about K-State, but about New Mexico I disagree because KSU got into its rhythm and played New Mexico again and crushed them. In regards to Nebraska, that game was altered by several horrendous officiating calls and the Cats did not have anyone who could stay with Alec Maric. This is a team that lost to Texas A&M by a mear four points and also lost Bill Walker for the season due to injury in that game. They have won 12 of 16 games down the stretch as well. But I think it will work out as Oklahoma State lost to Texas 69-64. Another thing I do not grasp is Duke not even being mentioned as on the bubble. They finished 7th in the 12 team ACC, which I will also add has only one legit Final Four contender in UNC, lost in the first round of the ACC tournament, and has just over 20 wins in a mediocre conforence. The ACC gets way too much hype and is way overrated!!!! I feel that Duke is getting in easy because they are a big name in college basketball and not because they have earned their place in the NCAA Tournament.

Bryan said...

20 wins is not the "magic number" that gets you in the tourney.. there are too many other factors this year in the other conference tourneys that will hurt teams like FSU and Clemson.. in years past, their profiles would have gotten them in I think, but not this year.

matt r said...

Congrats to B101 for having NMSU and Wright St pegged to win their conference tournaments for several weeks... even though NMSU tried to throw it away at the end.

matt r said...

Uh oh. Another Lunardi late change alert. He just moved Stanford from the sixth team out to Last Four In.

Anonymous said...

The reason no (sane, informed) person is suggesting that Duke is a bubble team is because they played the hardest schedule in the deepest, strongest conference in the nation. They also didn't shy away from hard OoC games (hey there K-State having a OoC SoS of 225). Overall, they have SoS of 3, OoC SoS of 11, have marquee wins of Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, and Air Force, RPI in the top 20, and oh yeah, played the toughest schedule in conference in the ACC. Check the in conference SoS of Duke versus the ACC "co-champions" Virginia...it's so sad that the unbalanced schedule is now in the ACC, but what can you do? Duke is easily in this tournament, and only morons that think the Big 12 is a decent conference would say otherwise.

BSquare said...

Duke should be in, but Georgetown (when they were playing bad BTW) is the only marquee win that you listed. And besides UNC, the conference is kind of average.

On the Lunardi thing, yes, I think he must have gotten some information from a source inside the committee. Earlier in the day, he was arguing against Stanford being included with Jay Bilas and they were the sixth team left out of his field. Tonight, he has them in the field and on the ESPN homepage, it has a poll with the last four out being: ODU, Illinois, FSU, and USAFA. Somehow, they leapt over at least 6 teams without playing.

Anonymous said...

To the poster asking if anyone here agrees that K-State should be in and that the Big 12 is a "extremely underrated" conference, the quick answer is NO. The longer answer: NNNOOOOOOOO. Come on, Big 12 underrated? Their best team, Kansas, lost to Oral Roberts and DePaul. Their other conference finalist, Texas, lost to just about everybody OOC (Gonzaga, Mich. St., Tennessee -- perhaps it is just that those 1 point squeeker victories over St. Johns and LSU don't impress me as much as they should). I'll give it to Texas A&M, however. They did beat Lamar and Prarie View and Idaho State and Fordham and Grambling and Winthrop wrapped around their losses to LSU and UCLA (please note that Texas A&M did not beat a single team outside of the Big 12 that is going to the Tournament -- in fact, probably their best OOC win was Auburn: OOOH, impressive).

Is the Big 12 "underrated"? In the words of Fezzik the Giant, "I am not sure that word means what you think it means."

The Big 12 basketball teams have clearly learned a leason from the Big 12 football teams: Have all of your teams play a bunch of rediculously uncompetative joke Lower-Whereever-State-Tech-A&T schools and then everyone will be undefeated going into conference play so that even the middle of the pack can say look how great we are because we won half of our games in such a great conference where everybody has winning records.

Anonymous said...

Oops -- made a mistake in the last post. I see that Tex A&M beat Winthrop, and I had in my mind Wofford. That's what happens when you type at 2AM. OK, at least Winthrop is going to the Tourney, and may even surprise in the first round. But my contention still remains -- Big 12 is not underrated. If anything, it is overrated, and will be lucky to get even 1 of its teams to the Sweet 16.

Anonymous said...

Too bad the selection committee won't be taking a long hard look at Kentucky. The RPI for the CATS is a joke and with zero wins over top 25 teams (at the time of playing said opponent) -leave 'em in Lexington.

If it wasn't for a sea of cash dressed in blue and ready to travel, UK would be NIT bound for sure.

I'd much rather see a mid-major with determination than "Big Blue" on a down year.

tvp said...

I love how people say the ACC is overrated with no proof whatsoever.

The last time I checked 9 of the 12 ACC teams were in the RPI top 50. Sagarin has 9 in the top 40. And NC State is proving that even the bottom of the league is no joke this year. There are no dominant teams besides UNC but several very, very good teams. The ACC should get 8 this year.

NLS said...

Kentucky NIT bound?

I agree the RPI number is not reflective of their season, but they have an eight-seed.

They beat Indiana, at Louisville, split with Tennessee, UMass, DePaul and at Arkansas.

They are just 5-9 against 1-50, but are 8-2 against 51-100.

One team I have a question about is Texas Tech. Almost everyone has them in. Why?

They have 12 losses in a weak Big 12 conference. They are just 7-9 against Top 100.

They lost by 14 to Air Force on a neutral court, who most consider out. Also, 21-point loss to K-State on Friday I think should put them out.

Anonymous said...

Duke beating Air Force, Indiana, and Gonzaga are not marquee wins. Are you kidding me!?!?!?!?!?! Air Force is not going to the Big Dance, Gonzaga plays in a weak conference that they always win, and Indiana finished third in the weak Big Ten that has two real title contenders in Ohio State and Wisconsin and has just over 20 wins!!!!!! The ACC has one team, let me repeat one team inside the top twenty in UNC at #8. The Big 12 has 3 teams ranked inside the top 14. They are Kansas at #2, Texas A&M at #7, and Texas at #14. Albeit I admit that some Big 12 teams did not exactly play a hard OOC schedule they did play a lot of tournament teams, such as Florida, UCLA, LSU, USC, kicked BC's ass by 18, Arkansas, Air Force, Marquette, Stanford, Purdue, Illinois, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Tennesee, just to name a few. They beat the majority of these teams and I drew these teams from 7 schedules in the Big 12 and you know what one team from the Big 12 is not going to the tournament yet they beat three of these teams who are tournament locks, so the experts say. And one more thing about those teams I included, they all are at least on the NCAA bubble or have already solidified their spot in the tournament!!!!!! The ACC's next best team besides UNC is who Maryland, Virginia, Va Tech, Boston College??? Duke finished behind all of these teams in 6th place in the ACC as part of the middle pack, during ACC play went only 8-8 and lost to Maryland, NC State, UNC, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia, and barely eked out wins over BC and Clemson. This team has not beaten a team in the top 25 since December!!!! You are telling me that Georgia Tech or Clemson deserves to go to the tournament more than KSU or TTech!?!? Please!!! What a joke!!!!KSU and TTech both have more wins than these teams, higher RPIs, yes higher RPIs, and played some high quality teams in Kansas, Texas A&M, and Texas and beat them all!!! That is why I beleive that the ACC is overrated when they get 7 or 8 teams in and the Big 12 is getting 5 at best.

Anonymous said...

ODU an dDrexel deserve a bid- no chance for FSU, TX Tech, KSU and Stanford

Big 12 is a JOKE said...

Ha, I love reading these god awful posts by this Big 12 lover......I know the perfect way to settle your "acc is overated" and "big 12 is underated" debate......these are the same things we heard from Big Ten lovers for years...so the ACC agreed to do a ACC/Big Ten Challenge.....and the ACC has won all 8, and most the outcomes were nowhere close. That challenge is turning into a waste of time, because the committee does not ever take it into consideration since the Big Ten have consistantly gotten more teams in over the past few years. Now we'll have an ACC/Big 12 challenge, and teams like Texas and Texas A&M will find out just how "easy" it is to win at Cameron.....the ACC would destroy the Big 12, lets be realistic here....you have to understand the bottom of the conference are hands down better than the bottom of any conference in the country, which makes it so hard for the middle of the pack, they don't get 4 or 5 gimmmies on their schedule like every other conference......you say that Georgia Tech, Clemson, and FSU don't have big wins.....thats just ridiculous, Georgia Tech beat Memphis, destroyed Purdue...Clemson was undefeated OOC, which included wins at Old Dominion, and Miss St. who won their division in the SEC....FSU beat Florida, enough said......I'm sorry but the ACC having the toughest SOS's in the country is no glitch in the system....there is a real reason for that..

saying that UNC is the only final four contender is ridiculous.....MD can play with any team in the country despite losing to Miami twice....every team has that one bad team they just suck against.....but they have just as good a chance as most to make it through a bracket, we'll compare the records of both conferences at the end of this tourney and then we'll talk again....

Anonymous said...

Hmm, just how many wrong agruments can one make in a single post. Air Force was at the time a marquee win, considering that until their late season swoon they were a tourney lock and also destroyed a Big 12 tourney team (Texas Tech)on a neutral court. Oh, not to mention that you turn around and claim them as a tourney team when you mention teams from the Big 12 schedules...what a moron. It's one way or the other. Indiana is a tournament team, unlike the LSU team you mentioned (oh, and Arkansas isn't in unless they win today...stanford is also dicey along with Purdue and Illinois). Gonzaga beat UNC and Duke beat Gonzaga BEFORE the drug arrests, so I still consider that a marquee win. Let's see, top 25 wins since December: Clemson was 17 when Duke beat them 1/25, Boston College was 21 when we beat them @BC on 2/14 (by 8 points, we beat them @Duke by 14 to sweep the season). Yes, Duke was 8-8 in ACC play, but they also had the toughest in conference schedule (opp win % was .598 versus Virginia's .429). Sorry to say, but you can't go by conference finish unless it's a balanced schedule. That's why Villanova is in and West Virginia isn't, even though they finished with the same in conference record...WVU played the bottom teams, and Villa didn't. Who did Duke lose to that won't be in the tournament? Bubble team FSU, and NC State (who might go if they win today). So duke should be a bubble team for losing to 6 tournament teams (Marquette, VaTech, GaTech, UNC twice, Maryland twice, and UVA), a bubble team, and a team that is 1 game away from getting an automatic bid?

Who have KSU and TTech beaten? Let's see, KSU's good wins: Texas, USC and Texas tech...versus a 30!!! point loss to Cal (6-12 PAC10, 16-17 overall), loss to Colorado State (6-10 MWC, 17-13 overall), 24 point loss to New Mexico (4-12 MWC, 15-17 overall), plus losses to Nebraska and Ok State. To be honest, you did beat New Mexico the second time by 16, so you're only down 8 points to them. So all a team needs to do is beat 3 tourney teams and beat up on any and all minor NCAA teams (William & Mary, Tenn Tech, Copin State, Cleveland State, ND state, Kennanaw State, Maryland Eastern Shore, Chicago State) to get in the NCAAs? Holy crap! How the hell KSU is even in the discussion boggles the mind.

At least TTech got wins over Texas A&M twice and once over Kansas, along with semi decent OoC wins over Bucknell and Arkansas. Of course, they also lost to Air Force and Stanford.

Now, you want to know why GaTech/Florida State/Clemson deserve to be in over those two "powerhouses" of the big 12?

GaTech: beat Purdue, Memphis at Memphis, Georgia (iffy), Duke, UNC, BC, UConn (iffy again, but at least those two are decent attempts to schedule good schools OoC), swept FSU

Florida State: beat Florida, Providence, VaTech, Maryland, Duke @ Duke and suffered a loss of their point guard during their losing streak.

Clemson: beat Old Dominon, App State, South Carolina, Georgia, FSU twice, GaTech, BC, VaTech.

Granted, I don't think clemson deserved to get in (terrible of late), and FSU is the definition of borderline. But that just shows you how deep the ACC is when our 8th and 9th teams have legitimate resumees for the NCAAs. Yes, the ACC is not top heavy like the Big 12 (though Texas is severely overrated...lost to Mich State, lost to Gonzaga by 10 at home, beat St Johns by 1-duke manhandled St Johns, beat LSU by 1 at home...those are excellent ooc wins >.> ), but the ACC has several good teams which beat up on each other the entire conference season. There were no easy games in the ACC this year except maybe Miami. Even Wake gave alot of teams a tough time. Can't say that about Colorado or Baylor.

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