Sunday, March 11, 2007

Bracketology 101's Final Bracket Stats

Here are our final numbers for this year's bracket:

Teams correct: 63/65
Exact Seeds: 27/65
Seeds Within One Of Seed Line: 52/65

For a complete breakdown of how every bracketologist did in predicting the field, click here:

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

Looking around a little bit, we did very well compared to most (especially Lunardi - he cheated, still did terrible, and then lied about it on TV, saying he got 55 of 65 teams within a seed line when in reality he got 48 of 65). Congrats to Bracket Project for being the only bracket to got 64 out of 65 and for having the most exact seeds with 34. CBS Sportsline also had a strong showing in all three stat categories.

Overall we are a little disappointed and kicking ourselves for leaving Illinois out for Drexel. We thought it might be difficult for the committee to leave a 29 RPI out from a major conference and I guess it was. We went with Drexel because we thought the committee would give a little more love to the small conferences and in the back of their minds would be George Mason's run from last year out of the CAA. We also should have just copied Lunardi's Arkansas last minute inclusion (just like last year with George Mason). It really wouldn't have made a difference though because we wouldn't have taken Syracuse out to include them anyways.

There are a few seedings we are kicking ourselves about. We had Duke the top 8 and they ended up getting a 6. We should have put them a 7 so we'd only be one spot off. Also we seriously considered Eastern Kentucky being a 16 (our last 15) and North Texas a 15 (our first 16).

As for the committee some of their seeds we think are way off (Butler, UNLV, Indiana, Purdue) but there is always going to be some teams. The committee really seemed to use the Conference RPI in their decision making. For example, the SEC got 5 bids because they are the 2nd rated conference, while the Big East only got 6 out of 16 because they are the 5th rated conference. There are also some examples in the seedings of where a conference RPI is the only thing that justifies a seed.

35 comments:

Booyah said...

Arkansas! I knew it.

Bryan said...

Hey guys, I know you're an NCAA site, but if you can explain this about the NIT selection.. Mississippi State was given a 1-seed, and FSU was given a 2.. I would not have expected MSU to be seeded ahead of FSU.. any thoughts on this??

Bryan said...

Clemson also gets a 1 seed over FSU.. I just don't understand the NIT's seeding process, although I know FSU lost to Clemson 2/3 times this year, I think FSU certainly has a better overall profile.

Paymon said...

I'm one of the few without a rooting interest who thought Arkansas would make it. I also thought I'd have egg on my face. I was about to take them out because of Charles Thomas' injury. Lunardi should get the sack for doing that two years running.

Spot on with Team November (Butler) and the other teams you mentioned. I would add the John Paul Jones's to that list. UVa with a 4 seed is unreal. Does that mean they were a 3 seed or better before they lost to NC State and went to 3-9 on road/neutral courts?

Anonymous said...

uva probably would have been a 3 with a finals appearance, you forget that they did share the regular season title with non other than the 2nd number 1 seed North Carolina in the ultra-balanced ACC, the hardest conference in the nation with the number 1 rpi to go with nonconference wins over arizona and gonzaga (by more than 20 when they had heitvelt), they also came close to winning at bc with sean williams, at purdue, and at carolina (outscored them from the field but unc shot 30 more freethrows), and 1 loss at home by one point to stanford, also a tournament team...4 wins against the rpi top 25 and 7 against the rpi top 50 (9 against the top 54)

Paymon said...

I forgot no such thing. Even in the "ultra-balanced" ACC, unbalanced scheduling exists. That partly explains their 11-5 conference record.

Using the sabermetrics of the game, UVa was a less impressive 9-7 in the final adjusted conference standings, according to an article at SectionSix (http://sectionsix.blogspot.com/2007/03/final-adjusted-conference-standings.html)

Anyways, it is what it is, and they have an awesome draw considering their body of work.

Bracketology 101 said...

As for the NIT seeding the committee pretty much did whatever the hell they wanted. I think a lot of it is done to set up home games for the teams they want to have home games and where they expect to have good crowds.

Buffalo66 said...

Paymon is right. That (4) seed of UVa and (5) of Tennessee is a joke. There's the best spot for a (12) or (13) to move on - well, except as Pomeroy noted, they are all overseeded.

Also, how the hell did Niagara get stuck in the play-in game? Someone explain that one to me.

Anonymous said...

I agree Buffalo66...I know it's a relatively minor gripe, but there is no absolutely no reason why Niagara should have been placed in the play-in game. Jackson State comes to mind as one team that should have been chosen for the spot over Niagara. My only guess for Niagara's inclusion was the 1-6 start in non-conference play when the team was missing two of its regulars but it seems as if their current eleven-game winning streak was completely ignored. A bad decision on the committee's part in my opinion.

Anonymous said...

UVa as a 4 is a joke. Their schedule strength in the unbalanced ACC schedule (thank you football) was ludicrously easy. They had some really bad non-con losses (App St and Utah) that balanced out their good wins (AZ and Gonzaga). A 6 or 7 seems about right.

As for Niagara in the play-in game, Lunardi made a comment on ESPN about the NCAA not wanting to put the worst two teams (Jackson St and FAMU) in the play-in game for political reasons (i.e., schools from the 2 historically black conferences). IMO, if they are the two worst teams stick them in the play-in game. Since Lunardi seems to have a mole at the NCAA, I'll take his word for it. Why Niagara got picked, I have no clue.

Anonymous said...

Lunardi didn't have a mole at the NCAA. Gary Walters mentioned it during an interview earlier this week.

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Predicting the NCAA tournament bracket
For the past four years, Chris Kulenych and Craig Gately of Bracketology 101 have been the most accurate bracketologists in the country.sportsbook Their “projection-prediction” model is not based on the season ending today. Instead, it takes into account what teams have done so far and factors in future results as well. For more analysis of their weekly bracket and to read their daily content, please visit Bracketology 101.Joe Lunardi (ESPN) - Feb. 26 Bracket
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