Sorry for the delay in getting the breakdown posted. The top of the bubble is getting very crowded and there is little difference between at-large teams seeded 10-12 and some of the teams on the last 8 out list. Stanford has struggled of late losing six of their last 10. They have a tough first round matchup against USC in the Pac-10 tourney so it will be tough for them to pick up another win. Should they lose the game against USC they will be one of the last teams in if they get a bid, and we think they still will. They have good wins in and out of conference (vs. Texas Tech, @UVa, Wazzu, UCLA, Oregon) and no head scratching losses. Their resume will stack up favorably against fellow bubble boys. Our last three teams in (Syracuse, Purdue, FSU) all gained their bids by predicting future results. Right now Missouri State and Drexel may have better resumes then these teams but we feel that one more win for each of these three will propel them into the tourney. We like FSU against Clemson this week and with a good showing against UNC in the quarterfinals we think it should be enough to get the Seminoles a bid. Should Clemson come out on top in that game there is a chance that we put them into the bracket and take FSU out. Purdue has a huge quarterfinal matchup with Iowa this week and if they can win that we like their chances. They would be 7-3 in their last 10 (assuming a loss in the semis) and would have enough quality victories to warrant a bid. Syracuse needs to get by UConn on Wednesday to secure their bid.
We didn't like doing it but we had to take Missouri State out of the field this week. The reasons for this were their 0-5 record against SIU and Creighton, their recent home loss to Winthrop, and the fact they lost by 17 to Creighton in the MVC semis. It will be a long week and Selection Sunday for Missouri State. Kansas State, WVU, and Illinois, meanwhile, all have great opportunities this week to play themselves into the field by picking up two wins in their conference tournies.
The CAA tourney certainly didn't break as we had expected. Bubble teams all over the country will be routing hard for VCU tonight (especially ODU and Drexel). ODU is safer then Drexel at this point given their two wins over the Dragons and the fact that they finished two games better in conference. Drexel's 13 road wins are impressive, especially since 3 of them were Syracuse, Villanova, and Creighton. Their struggles in conference may come back to kill them though. The Dragons are in for a long week and lots of discussion.
New Mexico State's recent struggles have left us less then enthusiastic about their chances in the WAC tourney. The main reason we kept them in the field is because we think there is a better then 50% chance that Nevada goes down, and if it's not New Mexico State that beats them, it will be someone else in the conference. We just like New Mexico State's chances better than anyone else since they are at home.
Some final notes on the bracket: In our original seeding we had Georgia Tech as a 7 seed and Kentucky as an 8. We had to change that because we ended up with too many ACC teams on the 2,3,6,7,10,11 seed lines. We also had to move BYU from a 7 seed down to an 8 and Creighton froman 8 up to a 7 to avoid seeding BYU in New Orleans, which is a Fri./Sun. site.
We will continue to update the bracket this week daily or as necessary.
Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for March 5:
Last Four In
Stanford, Syracuse, Purdue, Florida State
Last Four Out
Missouri State, Drexel, Clemson, Kansas State
Next Four Out
West Virginia, Illinois, Massachusetts, DePaul
Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), Big Ten (5), Big XII (4), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), MVC (2), WAC (2)
(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics. Team in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.)
America East - Vermont
ACC - North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Xavier
Big East - Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse
Big Sky - Weber State
Big South - Winthrop
Big Ten - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue
Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - VCU, Old Dominion
C-USA - Memphis
Horizon - Wright State, Butler
Ivy - Penn
Metro Atlantic - Siena
MAC - Kent State
MCC - Oral Roberts
MEAC - Delaware State
MVC - Creighton, Southern Illinois
MWC - UNLV, BYU, Air Force
Northeast - Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky
Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, USC, Stanford
Patriot - Holy Cross
SEC - Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Southern - Davidson
Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
SWAC - Jackson State
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada
WCC - Gonzaga
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, UCLA, Kansas, Wisconsin
The 2s
Florida, North Carolina, Georgetown, Texas A&M
The 3s
Memphis, Maryland, Southern Illinois, Washington State
The 4s
Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Virginia, UNLV
The 5s
Arizona, Nevada, Marquette, Oregon
The 6s
Texas, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Duke
The 7s
Louisville, Notre Dame, BYU, Kentucky, Creighton
The 8s
BYU, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Boston College
The 9s
Butler, USC, Villanova, Xavier
The 10s
Air Force, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Gonzaga
The 11s
Winthrop, VCU, Old Dominion, Stanford
The 12s
Syracuse, Purdue, Florida State, Davidson
The 13s
Wright State, Akron, New Mexico State, Holy Cross
The 14s
Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach State
The 15s
Western Kentucky, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Belmont, Siena
The 16s
Weber State, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)
The Bracket
Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 5
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
38 comments:
I think UVA and Maryland a bit over-rated. I think a 4/5 seed for both of them fits them better. Getting all the way up to 3rd place in ACC play does alot of help for the Terps, but two losses to UVA may keep them from getting that 1 seed hier then the Cavs. UVA has lost to Wake and Miami lately. They will really need to do well in the ACC tourney to take a 4 seed in my oppinion.
You may think MD is overated until they play your favorite team and beat them.......winning the last 7 in a row in arguably the best conference where the level of talent is very high throughout the entire conference and teams are fighting for NCAA berths and seedings is a great accomplishment. If they lose early in the ACC tourney, then yeah drop them down to a 4 or 5....but if they make a run in the tourney then they will come close to 30 wins this season, and how can you not put one of the hottest teams in the country at the very least a 3 seed
Thw two big questions right now that are out there for bubble teams:
1) If George Mason wins tonight, do three now get in from the Colonial? Do you take VCU, ODU and GM?
2) What are the scenarios for the FlaSt -Clem game?
If Fla St wins, are they a lock?
If Clemson wins, are both in? Or are both now out (barring a Clemson upset over UNC?)
Memphis stayed on the 3 line, but everyone on the 2 line above them lost a game last week. Why is that?
In figuring out the two line, we projected ahead through each conference tournament and seeded teams accordingly. If Florida, North Carolina, and Georgetown all win their respective conference tournaments as projected, they will all get 2 seeds (at least). We also like Texas A&M to get at least to the final of the Big XII tourney, which would be good enough to give the Aggies the last 2 over Memphis.
Siena over Niagara tonight? We'll see how well you predict tonight, good sir. ;-)
Martin is missing the boat on Memphis. Losing a tough road game is better than beating a soft conference schedule like Memphis is. A 3 seed could be too high for Memphis, considering how poorly they did against strong competition.
No because these teams are losing to very good teams. Memphis is beating non tourney teams. Their win over is not impressive cause of Heyfelt being out. The Zags may wind up in the NIT. No Memphis should not be rewarded just because they play in a bad conference.
This is some teams record against the top 50.
Memphis- 1-3
UCLA- 9-1
Ohio State- 8-3
North Carolina- 10-4
Wisconsin- 7-4
Florida- 6-4
Kansas- 3-2
It is obvious that Memphis doesn't merit a 1-2 seed. They should feel lucky to even get a 3 with the horrible schedule they have played. Memphis has lost when they played the top teams on their schedule.
The top 2 RPI conferences (SEC & ACC) will not be denied a 1-seed on Selection Sunday if both UNC and Florida win their conference tournaments. It just won't happen.
As for Mr. Jefferson's University (AKA UVa), I have them as the last 6-seed in my bracket (phsports.blogspot.com) and that's only because they shared the best record in the conference. They were 8-4 against the RPI Top 50 which is heartening. Here is what scares me:
RPI: 43
SOS: 43
Losses to RPI 100+: 3; Utah (N), @ Miami, @ Wake Forest
Road/Neutral Record: 3-8
Ladies and gentleman, they don't get to play at the John Paul Jones Center. They need ACC tournament wins like no other team, save FSU & Clemson.
Here's another thing. If a mid-major loses one game to a RPI 100+ team within 3 weeks of Selection Sunday, they're toast. UVa lost two of them.
Thanks for the explanation, it makes perfect sense; I was just curious by the apparent failure to move up when teams above them lost. A 3 seed seems about right for Memphis, assuming they win their conference tournament, or maybe a 2 if some of the other conference favorites that you project are upset in their tourneys.
However, I have to disagree with the implication in a later comment that a loss to a good team is necessarily better than a win over a bad team; if that were universally true, then an 0-16 team in a major conference would theoretically be better than Memphis, SIU, or Nevada. This clearly isn't the case. A win is still a win, and Memphis does manage to keep winning. And while their schedule is less difficult than those in the BCS conferences, it can't be *that* weak, or their RPI wouldn't be in the top 10.
Seeding is important but it will never be fair.specialy for teams like Memphis say all you won't they earned a 1 seed last year and they still got screwed over by having to travel to west coast to play the projected UCLA in the elite 8. I think Calipari cares more about how good his team is than a seed. My thing is fight for the top seeds. UCLA was the only 1 or 2 to make the final four last. year. Memphis will still do great despite their seeding. The biggest thing is were the teams will play.
While looking at the seedings How in the world do you give S.Illinois team a 3 and you argue if Memphis should be that high. Are you serious. For 1 Memphis has not played a amazing scheadule but have they not dominated every imperior oponents. S.Illinois on the otherhand has lost to teams like ODU. Their only win that is has credibility is a Butler team that is a Shakey mid-major. No offense but it seems like their is two ways to get a good seed dominate a So-So schedule or Win ever other game with a good schedule. Southern Illinios has done niether. I ask you this. If you put the other 3 seeds on a nuetral court with Memphis would Memphis not run them out. Use your mind and not your heart before answering.
Many questions and comments are answered in the breakdown which is now posted.
As for Bradon's comment on SIU and Memphis...SIU never lost to ODU and I don't know what you are complaining about because we have Memphis as the top 3 and Southern Ill. as the 3rd 3 so we have your Tigers seeded higher. Before SIU's loss to Creighton they were definetly a higher seed then Memphis since they had better wins out of conference (vs. Va Tech, @Butler) and they finished first in a better conference then Memphis.
I seriously doubt Memphis would run Southern Illinois out of the building. They both have neutral court wins over good teams from major conferences: SIU over VaTech and Memphis over Kentucky. In both cases, their next best wins are over leaders of mid-majors. SIU won at Butler, whereas Memphis's next best win is an OT win over Gonzaga (a team Butler practically ran out of the building before the margin was narrowed to 8). If they played, I'd have to give Memphis an advantage, but a very small one.
Could Xavier get an at large if they lose in A10 tournament? They have wins over bubble teams Villanova, Kansas State, VCU, UMass, & Illinois but also have some bad losses. What do you guys think of Xavier's chances at an at large?
Memphis is complaining about being shipped to Oakland last year? Do they also complain about getting the CUSA tourney at home for the 3rd straight year?
Xavier has an excellent chance at an at-large thanks to the strong OOC wins that Coach K Refs referenced. The Musketeers might want to avoid an A-10 tourney exit just to be safe, but their OOC resume, low-30's RPI, and 9-1 record in their last 10 games would make it hard to deny them an at-large bid.
at this point i think uva is a 5 and maryland is a 4/5, the committee doesn't seed teams based solely on how hot they are (and you're also forgetting that uva had a 7 game win streak), if iona had won their last ten all against rpi top 50's they definitely wouldn't be a 3 seed, or in for that matter but they would be one of the nation's hottest teams. I don't think Virginia can do worse then 6/7 seed with a quarterfinals loss, i mean they did share the acc regular season title, despite some poor performances on the road (by the way its the John Paul Jones Arena, not center) but i can say for their credit they fended off Maryland when they finally found their feet, and came from 16 down with 8 minutes left (14 with 5 minutes left) at clemson, 3rd highest comeback of the year and on the road
the reason a midmajor would drop with 2 losses against teams outside the top 100 is because mid majors don't play as many good teams and typically don't have as strong resumes as, say, you're leaders of the best conference in the nation, plus miami and wake are still good teams, miami won at maryland and also beat georgia tech at home, and wake also beat georgia tech at home and nearly won at tech...honestly im tired of all this whining about mid-majors they don't play in power conferences so unless they have a stellar non-conference record they can't afford that kind of loss: uva's conference rpi is 6th in the nation
To the person who was talking about Memphis having their conference played in Memphis 3 straight years. That is so small minded considering you are relating a confrence Tourney Location to NCAA elite 8 location clearly not even relevant. Also considering Memphis has nothing to gain from C-USA except shame in National eyes. I take a good Elite 8 setting over a homecourt conference tournament anyday.
Oh yeah I'm sorry, my bad SIU didn't loose to ODU. Even worst they lost Evansville, N Iowa, Bradley. Who is Evansville?lol And 3 other teams. Memphis may have lost 3 but they have lost twice as many. To put both of them in 3's are putting them in the same breath. When people fill out brackets they will never put SIU in final 4 unless they go there or they are proud parents. On the otherhand Memphis lurks in the back of every coache's mind. They may not have the stars this year like last year but alot of people say they are better than a last year's Elite 8 team. Get outta here haters!LOL
Yes, yes, yes. You Tiger fans here lies the importance of "paper work" cause only you know how good you are. Yes I do think this Memphis team is as good or better than last years team. Here lies the plroblem that team was a strong 1. This team is a ?...3,2. What is the difference here people? Resume not skill. They are just as qualified on court as last years team but their paper work is not as strong. I'm sure coach Cal was not expecting an Oklahoma team to have that much trouble this year, So has Cincinatti, Gonzaga, and Kentucky. usual resume fillers but not quite this year. Hey what were they supposed to do, Make those teams play better. People you must realize they don't have the leisure of Knowing they could get some qaulity wins in conference. Are these the same people who said how great Cal's SCHEDULE WAS AT THE START OF THE YEAR! I don't know how they could have did any better. They should have went Undefeated! Then they could get some consideration. My solution is for the tigers use there lower seed to sneak in the back door. Hey Florida was a 3 last year!
siu is a good team, don't underestimate them...they beat virginia tech and butler and were 2nd in the MVC which is a pretty good conference, and bradley is not a horrible loss, personally i probably wouldn't put them in the final four or elite 8 although i guess it would depend on how the matchups worked out but i wouldn't think someone was crazy for putting them there, they're a sleeper, definitely more likely to make a run than gmu was last year
Your right it wouldn't be crazy. Cause if GMU made it anybody can. but I'm saying if Memphis made the final four they would not be a leeper. Now Southern ILL.can do it but everybody would be shocked. How can you consider one of the fav's in MEM and one the sleepers as both 3's. Something is not right. Mem has just as much chance as last years team, it is not logical. Oh yeah the least GMU could ve done was beat Tech and Butler. They lost to Evansville? That just nuetralizes that loss.lol
Mem came close to loosing to some nobodies but they didn't cross the line. They did.
Can somebody please rationalize That loss, along with N IOWA. ?
Well everybody say's that the two have similiar victories so cancel out that aspect. Now Compare losses.
Memphis / Southern Illinois
G.Tech-Notbad/ Arkansas-Okay
#9 Arizona-GoodTeam/Indiana-Ok
Tennessee-Good team/N Iowa- Bad
________________/Bradley-OK
___________/Evansville-Loosing rec.
___________/Creighton-Maybe
Enough said they have similair wins but losses are not even comparable. Should they be the same seed? Brandon Maybe right.
Somebody else take it from here...
Now somebody is gettin it.
Thanx 4 Explaining my theory more clearer, Mike :)
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