Monday, March 12, 2007

Bracketology 101's Final Review

We know everyone is already looking ahead to the tournament and filling out their brackets, but here is our final look back at B101's "season".

Leading up to Selection Sunday we feel that our projection-prediction method was once again the most realistic and reliable way to project the field. Before conference tournaments started, and in most cases much before that, we already had 2 out of the 3 eventual bid stealers (WAC, Horizon, A-10) in our bracket. We had Wright State in the bracket since February 26, and we had New Mexico State in every bracket since December 26. We were also a week ahead of other brackets in giving Kansas a 1 seed and in taking Missouri State out of the field completely. Hopefully more bracketologists will start using our method (and not the traditional "season ending today" model) in the future, so that fans have a better idea of their team's chances as the amount of bubble spots available inevitably shrinks during championship week.

As for the final bracket, we are once again happy with our success in seeding the field compared to other bracketologists. We were very pleased to have predicted all of the 1 and 2 seeds correct, considering it was a much harder decision this year than most. We are also pleased with our number of exact seeds and teams within one seed line. In both of those statistics, we did considerably better, or at least the same, as the other "major" bracketologists.

Our biggest regret is changing our mind on Selection Sunday and including 3 teams from the CAA for the first time all season. We were never a huge fan of Drexel all week and unfortunately we ended up riding the wave of support that was being generated for the team throughout the weekend. We should have thought with our heads more and tried to get into the minds of the committee instead of using our hearts.

This year's committee once again seemed to put a lot of importance on the strength of the conference. We don't think they are sitting in a room and saying that we need to have so many teams from this conference and so many from this one, but a major reason why the committee may have included Arkansas over Syracuse is because they were not about to put 7 teams in from the 5th rated conference and only 4 teams in from the 2nd rated conference. The same could be said for the potential 3 teams out of the 13th rated Colonial.

In the end, it was another exciting and successful season for B101. We'd like to thank all the fans for their comments, e-mails, and contributions to the site. The insight, questions, and analysis that you brought to the site were impressive all season long. We also want to thank our resident geographical genius Matt Reeves for his tireless work each week in compiling the bracket.

Enjoy the tournament. We'll be making periodic updates throughout, starting Wednesday with our complete brackets and Final Four picks.

Chris and Craig
Bracketology 101


Anonymous said...

I think you guys do a terrific job in picking the teams.

I was very surprised at how undervalued the Moutain West was for everyone.

Air Force waxed Stanford and Wake Forest (who beat G Tech) and I thought SDSU was a darn good team too.

Am I wrong to think that these MWC teams are good?

Bracketology 101 said...

The MWC got shafted seeding-wise, especially UNLV at a 7. Almost everyone had them on the 4 or 5 line, and that's where they should have been. BYU's seed isn't too bad at an 8; we had them slotted the top 7. Both of those teams are under-seeded and could be very dangerous in the tournament.

Overall, the MWC had a solid year, but it was hurt late in the year by Air Force's collapse. If the MWC was a three-bid league, odds are UNLV and BYU would have been bumped up a seed line or so. SDSU was playing well late in the year, but it was too little too late, as they couldn't recover enough from a disappointing start to the season to seriously get in the at-large discussion.

Anonymous said...

Good job guys. Drexel needed one more in conf win.

I like the MVC but they only deserved two this year. Mo. State fell apart.

Ga Tech is the team I question.

Do it again next yer.

go terps said...

does anyone know where i can find out what announcers will be at each site for the first 2 rounds???

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