Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 8

The Breakdown
Wednesday's results did not affect the bracket much. Syracuse was moved to an 11 seed and out of the last four in category while WVU moved into the last four out column. Now the real fun begins. The biggest bubble game of the day is between Florida State and Clemson. Fans of bubble teams should probably cheer for Clemson in this one, since they likely need a victory over UNC to secure a bid while FSU has a chance at a bid with just a solid showing against UNC. The Big Ten has some important bubble games as well. Michigan State needs a win to secure their bid while Michigan and Illinois need wins to stay alive. Despite West Virginia's solid record they will need a win Thursday over Louisville to feel good about their chances on Sunday. Stanford will need a win over USC to lock down their bid or else they will sweat it out come Sunday. In the MWC, Air Force has stumbled down the stretch and will be in search of their first ever conference tourney win today when they face Wyoming. Should they go down, they still have a good shot at a bid, but they would have to worry a little should SDSU make a deep tourney run.

We will continue to update the bracket this week daily or as necessary.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for March 8:

Last Four In
Stanford, Old Dominion, Purdue, Florida State

Last Four Out
Missouri State, Drexel, West Virginia, Kansas State

Next Four Out
Clemson, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan

Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), Big Ten (5), Big XII (4), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), MVC (2), WAC (2)
(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Florida State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue

Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - VCU, Old Dominion

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Wright State, Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Niagara

MAC - Akron

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Creighton, Southern Illinois

MWC - UNLV, BYU, Air Force

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Oregon, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - North Texas

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, UCLA, Kansas, Wisconsin

The 2s
Florida, North Carolina, Georgetown, Texas A&M

The 3s
Memphis, Maryland, Southern Illinois, Washington State

The 4s
Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Virginia, UNLV

The 5s
Arizona, Nevada, Marquette, Oregon

The 6s
Texas, Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Duke

The 7s
Louisville, Notre Dame, Kentucky, Creighton

The 8s
BYU, Georgia Tech, Indiana, Boston College

The 9s
Villanova, Butler, USC, Xavier

The 10s
Air Force, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Gonzaga

The 11s
Winthrop, VCU, Syracuse, Stanford

The 12s
Old Dominion, Purdue, Florida State, Davidson

The 13s
Wright State, Akron, New Mexico State, Holy Cross

The 14s
Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach State

The 15s
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Belmont, Niagara, Eastern Kentucky

The 16s
Weber State, North Texas, Central Connecticut State, Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 8

(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at

Want more Bracketology 101? Read about B101 in Eric Prisbell's Bracketology story in this past Sunday's Washington Post: Need For Information Is Creating A Bracket


Anonymous said...

Is your bracket still projecting a win for Virginia v. Duke (presuming Duke advances today, which is extremely likely)? It strikes me that they should be a #5 if they lose to Duke, which is what I assumed would be the projection.

Bracketology 101 said...

Virginia's 4 seed projects a win over Duke. When we were slotting teams for this bracket, we really didn't like anyone for the last two spots on the four line. Ultimately, Virginia's conference mark gave them the edge over the teams on the 5 line, while UNLV's RPI and home court advantage in the MWC tournament made them the last 4. By Selection Sunday, a number of teams on the 5 and 6 lines can get up to a 4, but right now Virginia and UNLV are our projections to make it. A loss to Duke would land Virginia somewhere on the 5-6 line.

JGibson said...

I'm still not sold on the safety of Syracuse. I really think Stanford (to pick one team off the last 4 in line) has more quality wins (neutral court vs. Texas Tech, @Virginia, Washington State, USC, UCLA, Oregon) than Syracuse (@Marquette, DePaul, Villanova, Georgetown). And if you go back to 2003, both BC and Seton Hall were 10-6 in the Big East and both won their opening round tournament games, but both were left out of the tournament. I still think they deserve to be in for now, but I don't see them as the lock that a lot of people do.

Bracketology 101 said...

Syracuse may have the same amount of conference wins as those 2003 Boston College and Seton Hall teams, but a closer look shows that Cuse's resume by comparison is much stronger. In 2003, BC beat only one other NCAA tournament team (UConn) and almost all of the rest of their wins came against teams that finished under .500 or no better than three games over .500 for the season. The same could be said that year for Seton Hall, who beat two NCAA teams in conference (Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, both at home), but padded their resume with eight wins over Big East bottom feeders.

Anonymous said...

Florida State is in.

Anonymous said...

wow shocker in the acc tourney today, miami over maryland, the conference's hottest team, should drop them to a 5/4, and fsu edges clemson by 1 point solidifying the tigers as the winners of the "breakdown of the season" award, barely edging okalhoma state

don't assume duke will win the opening round game, dont forget: nc state did beat unc at home, theyre not a bad team and might even be on the bubble if atsur hadn't been injured, and uva has proven that they can beat them...a game against duke would be much more threatening but uva can definitely win that game, plus duke will be a bit more tired which could prove to be a factor late, especially since uva has a tendency to make late, improbable comebacks

Anonymous said...

Is Air Force still in even with an early MWC Tournament loss.

natty said...

Maryland should be a 5 seed now with the loss to Miami. Maybe a 4 seed though, if UVA looses to Duke/NC State, because UVA will have the advantage over them because of their two wins against the Terps.

Anonymous said...

the md choke must change things a bit.

Anonymous said...

Does the UCLA loss to Cal potentially change things up top?

Anonymous said...

the 'Cuse should be out...NYC is their home court. ESPN needs to tell the truth for once.

BSquare said...

I don't mean to defend the Cuse, although I think they're in, but MSG is almost certainly not their homecourt. You do realize that NY City is about 5 hours from Syracuse, right?

JGibson said...

NYC is Syracuse's home court? Syracuse is several hours from NYC. It is St. John's home court, though.

Anonymous said...

UCLA's season ending loss(upset) and early tournament loss(upset) should definitily take away a 1. But there early games should hold them at second or third 2 seed. Right? If they keep it would be so unfair. Every 1 this season should be required to do so damage in thier conference Tourney!

Anonymous said...

Plz Excuse my grammer.

Bryan said...

Hey Bracketology 101 guys!! What in the world is going on in Tampa at the ACC tourney?? 3 games today, all won by the lower seeds!! I'm glad FSU won (albeit by a terrible call at the end of the game), but I'm worried that their win over Duke earlier this year just lost quite a bit of its luster after Duke lost to NC State. If Wake ends up beating Ga. Tech tonight, selection sunday will be very interesting for the ACC. I still think FSU needs a good showing against UNC tomorrow for them to get in, though. Your thoughts?

Anonymous said...

The thing about UCLA is they now have 4 losses in their last 12 games. All four of those losses were to teams outside the RPI top 50. Also the committee cannot look favorably on the two losses to end the season.

In the end, UCLA does have a number of quality wins. It seems to me that their recent losses have left them vulnerable to getting a 2. I would say it would be fair to seed KU, Ohio St, Wisconsin, UNC, Florida, A&M, or Gtown ahead of UCLA if those teams WIN their conference tourneys. Obviously it's only possible for 5 of that list to win. It's also likely one or two will lose. I think whether UCLA gets a 1 or 2 seed depends on whether 1 or 2 of the above teams lose.

Bracketology 101 said...

Our thought process the last week or so has been that FSU needed to beat Clemson and have a good showing against UNC to earn a bid. They're halfway home...

Air Force will hang on to a bid for now, but they are slipping closer and closer to Last Four In territory (How incredible is it that they have NEVER won a conference tourney game?). Air Force also better hope for an SDSU loss before the final, or things could get very interesting on the MWC bubble.

UCLA is still a 1 (talk about an unmotivated performance, though). The only way that might change is if Florida, UNC, Ohio State and and Kansas all win their conference tournies..If Pitt beats Marquette tonight, they will get Maryland's 3 seed.

Anonymous said...

Stanford lost a heartbreaker to USC. Did you see the refs in that game? Not saying they screwed Stanford, but you couldnt breathe on the opposing player. Stanford has so many more big wins than other bubble teams. Give me some good news, are they in?

Bryan said...

Unreal.. all 4 lower seeds advance in the ACC opening round.. Ga Tech loses an unbelievable game in 2OT to Wake.. is GT still solidly in the field? That's their 3rd bad loss of the season, twice to the bottom dweller in the ACC.. I know they have many good wins, but is their profile stronger than FSU?? I know they beat FSU twice, but FSU hasn't had any bad losses, in fact all their losses are to teams with a better than 50 RPI.

natty said...

Chances are NC State, Wake, or Miami will win the ACC championship. FSU and GT are so hard to decide on, and now if there is some crazy upset with Miami winning the whole ACC tourney, selection sunday is gonna be a mess. Who the heck knows how many teams the ACC will take right now.

Anonymous said...

i guess 70% of the 'Cuse population isn't from metro NY/NJ/CT....they should not be in.

Drexel beat both nova and syr but they lack the fan base

Anonymous said...

A couple ACC teams played their way out of the final 65.

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