Friday, March 09, 2007

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 9

The Breakdown
Enough overtime games for you on Thursday? And after all of that the same 65 teams remain in our bracket. The bubble teams waiting around (ODU, Missouri State, and Drexel) had to like some of the results with WVU, Syracuse, Stanford, Air Force, GT, and UMass losing. They weren't happy to see all the Big Ten bubble teams and FSU winning. We'll break things down how we see them right now.

Any at-large bids that are a 10 seed or better we think are safe for a bid. GT lost a 2OT game to Wake but because of their strong finish (7-3) and their quality wins we feel they are safe. Should Texas Tech lose to Kansas State we still think they are safe as well. Xavier also does not need to win another game to get a bid.

Now on to the at-large bids seeded on the 11 and 12 line: First a note on the seeding...we had to make FSU an 11 seed and Syracuse a 12 seed for bracketing purposes. FSU remains the last team in, while Syracuse would be the 3rd 11 seed. FSU won the elimination game with Clemson and now all that separates them and a berth is UNC. If they can't pick up another victory, then they will at least need a good showing to hold onto their bid. Stanford lost a tough one to USC and now they will have to wait. Their RPI is getting into a dangerous zone (62) and they have lost 4 of 5 (although none of the losses are bad losses). What we like and think that the committee will like is the fact that they finished 10-8 in one of the top 3 conferences and they have quality wins in and out of conference. Air Force has finished the season on a complete freefall. They have lost 4 in a row with 2 of them being bad losses (@TCU, Wyoming). Their RPI remains strong (33) but they don't have the quality victories on their resume to offset these recent losses. They stay in the bracket for the time being but they need to cheer hard against fellow bubble teams. The back-breaker for them would be Wyoming or Colorado State winning the MWC tourney.

West Virginia was a traveling call away from finding themselves in the bracket. It may seem like a harsh fate for a 21-9, 9-7 team out of the Big East who beat a current #1 seed, but they lack quality wins inside the conference. Their unbalanced Big East schedule really hurt them (they had the second easiest Big East schedule based on conference win %, thanks to no games against Syracuse and Louisville and two each with Seton Hall and Cincinnati), and being the 8th team out of the Big East is not a good place to be right now. It's make or break today for Illionis, Kansas State, and Michigan. All three would likely find themselves in the bracket if they get victories today.

Our last bracket before our final bracket will be made early on Saturday. Also look for some live chats this weekend.

Here is Bracketology 101's Field of 65 for March 9:

Last Four In
Purdue, Stanford, Air Force, Florida State

Last Four Out
Missouri State, Drexel, Kansas State, West Virginia

Next Four Out
Illinois, Michigan, Arkansas, Massachusetts

Conference Breakdown
ACC (8), Big East (7), Pac-10 (6), Big Ten (5), Big XII (4), SEC (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), Horizon (2), MVC (2), WAC (2)
(Teams listed first from multiple bid conferences are automatics. Teams in bold have already clinched an automatic bid.)

America East - Vermont

ACC - North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Florida State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier

Big East - Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue

Big 12 - Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - VCU, Old Dominion

C-USA - Memphis

Horizon - Wright State, Butler

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Niagara

MAC - Akron

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Creighton, Southern Illinois

MWC - UNLV, BYU, Air Force

Northeast - Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley - Eastern Kentucky

Pac-10 - Washington State, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Stanford

Patriot - Holy Cross

SEC - Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC - Jackson State

Sun Belt - North Texas

WAC - New Mexico State, Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Wisconsin, UCLA

The 2s
Florida, North Carolina, Georgetown, Texas A&M

The 3s
Memphis, Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois, Washington State

The 4s
Virginia, UNLV, Oregon, Texas

The 5s
Nevada, Maryland, Tennessee, Louisville

The 6s
Virginia Tech, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Marquette

The 7s
Notre Dame, Creighton, BYU, Kentucky

The 8s
Indiana, Boston College, USC, Duke

The 9s
Villanova, Butler, Xavier, Michigan State

The 10s
Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Winthrop, Gonzaga

The 11s
, Old Dominion, Purdue, Florida State

The 12s
Syracuse, Stanford, Air Force, Davidson

The 13s
Wright State,
Akron, New Mexico State, Holy Cross

The 14s
Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach State

The 15s
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Belmont, Niagara, Eastern Kentucky

The 16s
Weber State, North Texas, Central Connecticut State,
Delaware State (Play-In Game), Jackson State (Play-In Game)

The Bracket
Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 9
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at

Want more Bracketology 101? Read about B101 in Eric Prisbell's Bracketology story in this past Sunday's Washington Post: Need For Information Is Creating A Bracket


chrisandcraigsuck said...

Amazing. You guys put all that time into your bracket, staying up until 1 am, and you still get so many teams WRONG every year !!!

Wow, it must feel so good to be recognized for sucking so badly !!!

Bubbleteams said...

FYI guys. Air Force HAS won a conference tourney game, just not in the Mountain West Conference, their current conference. The Falcons are now 0-8 in the MWC Tournament with 3 of those losses coming against Wyoming. Air Force did win a tournament game back in their old conference, the WAC.

Granted that tournament win came in 1989-90, a full 17 years ago, but the Falcons do have a conference tournament win in their history (in fact, they have 3 conference tournament wins in the WAC, 89-90, 84-85, and 85-86).

Just a side note, these guys do a good job and for anyone to say they dont is b.s.

Good luck this season guys.

Anonymous said...

Yes, they do a decent job, but they clearly has some West Coast bias. Air Force and Stanford are by know means safe. Drexel or Missouri State vs. Air Force is going to be an interesting argument. Taking Stanford or FSU (if they lose today) over WVU will also be interesting.

JGibson said...

I feel pretty confident in stating that WVU won't get a bid. They only have three good wins (UCLA, Villanova, DePaul), and all three of the came at home. All the other teams discussed - AFA, Stanford, Florida State, even Kansas State, have neutral or road wins that are quality. All of them except K-State (which has 2) has at least 3 quality wins. Stanford, AFA, or FSU could conceivably come out, but I seriously doubt it will be for WVU.

And I don't think OT game against Louisville will actually help all that much. If you look at Louisville's resume, they had a dearth of quality wins until they had the back-to-back road wins over Pitt and Marquette.

Anonymous said...

How is Air Force's RPI so high being in such a terrible conference? I don't understand how everyone says they can be a lock at all, if it weren't for their RPI.

BSquare said...

The MWC is not a terrible conference, IMO. Its 3 or 4 best teams are very comparable to the 3 or 4 best teams in the MVC.

AFA had a really good non-conference schedule: Duke, Texas Tech, @Stanford. Additionally, they played the likes of Wake Forest, @Colorado, @George Washington, and @Santa Clara and they won all non-conference games except the Duke one.

Bracketology 101 said...

The Mountain West is the eighth ranked conference in the country - five spots higher than the Colonial. Most have the Colonial getting three bids right now; shouldn't the same be said for the MWC? We'll have to wait and see...

Bracketology 101 said...

We agree that Stanford and Air Force are by no means safe (especially Air Force). Air Force's RPI remains strong because they have a lot of road/neutral wins against teams in the 50-150 RPI range. After today's games and as people digest what the Falcons did down the stretch we will likely hear more about their bubble situation. The decision that the committee will have to make is whether or not their OOC wins over fellow bubble boys Stanford and Texas Tech will matter given their finish. The only way they hold on to their bid is if BYU or UNLV win the MWC title and teams like FSU, Kansas State, Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan all lose today.

As of today there are 4 or 5 spots in the bracket filled with teams that we feel are not safe. Generally by Sunday, after conference tournies finish, this number gets reduced to about 2 teams and we expect this to happen again this year.

Bryan said...

Well, I think FSU is pretty much done after their lackluster effort today.. I'm sure yesterday took a lot out of them, but that's no excuse when you've got a tourney bid on the line. Hello NIT again FSU.. Sorry Al Thornton, I really would have liked to have seen you in the tourney one time.

natty said...

To Crisandcraigsuck: Bracketology 101 has five years of projection experience, and last year correctly predicted 62 of the 65 (95%) tournament teams.

Don't discriminate against Tigers said...

You got to show Memphis some love
after they win 22 straight. I don't care who they are playing there getting teams best shots, thats not as easy as Memphis haters want it to seem. Lets see UCLA Loss to a CAL Team that is nothing. Are they even making NIT?lol. Not saying they are the only ones loosing to bad teams, everybody is. Except for Memphis! Can't they be 1 or 2. Other "good" teams are loosing to bad teams and they don't loose anyground. Notfair. I think every good win should be negated by a bad loss. If a team looses to Oral Roberts one weak and beat Florida next week they should gain no ground from the Fla victory. They may not have landmark victories but no other team can be consistant enough to win 20 plus against any schedule. I must preach this again you can not use the my conference is better than yours senerio here, why? Because no top teams are killing there conference this year. If you loose 3 or 4 conference games, what's the relevance of how good your conference is. That to me is a explanation for your 4 losses not a trophy. You are saying we loss those 4 games because those teams were good. Yeah that's creditable but you didn't dominate your conference so it's irelevant. Put other teams in place would they be, soon to be, 31-3? I think not. None of them has been consistant enough. I would expect slip-ups.

JGibson said...

It's true that MWC isn't as good as the Big Six. However, to say that it sucks is a stretch. Why does AFA have a good RPI? Not only did they beat Stanford and Texas Tech (and Santa Clara, whose record seriously helps AFA's RPI), but the rest of the conference has some big wins too: Both New Mexico and Colorado State beat Kansas State, Utah (the 7th place team!) beat Washington State and Virginia, and UNLV beat Nevada and Texas Tech.

Blame the Big 12 - they seem to have given the MWC plenty of victories.

Anonymous said...

Food for thought, why have I heard analyst say Memphis Tigers play like a 1 seed everygame, but they still are not look at as one of the best?

Bryan said...

Bad news for bubble teams everywhere as Xavier loses to Rhode Island in the A-10 Semis..Looks like the A-10 will get 2 bids now..bad news for teams like FSU..Also, the SEC making news now with both Arkansas / Miss advancing to the semis of their tourney.. one of those teams will make the finals..many have said that would be enough for one of them to take a bid.. I don't envy the selection committee come Sunday.

natty said...

UVA choked. What seed do they have now?

Anonymous said...

Texas A&M a 2?lol Well they lost
get em outta of there!
they have earned themselves a 3.

chrisandcraigsuck said...

62 out 65 ?? My grandmother could predict that and she has been dead for 8 years. How friggin hard is it to predict when 60 of the 65 teams is known by everyone. That leaves abouy 5 teams per year to predict and last year they only got 2 of those 5 right.

Like the name says, chrisandcraigsuck

Anonymous said...

ok, if they suck so much, why do you apparently spend so much time on their site? Better yet, why don't you crunch the numbers and accurately project 65 teams (that includes putting them on the correct seeding lines) instead of trolling here. Grow a pair, troll.

Anonymous said...

I have to say, other than Texas A&M, nobody go hurt more by their loss than Kansas. I think Kansas no longer has a chance at a #1 seed. Without another top 25 win, Kansas is now behind both Florida and Georgetown should those teams win their conference tourneys. For KU to get the #1 seed, I think they must win out, and have Florida, G'town, and Wisconsin lose.

Anonymous said...

I am really worried now. Xavier and Nevada both lost. Will Xavier get an at-large? Will Stanford be knocked out? They are so dangerous if they get in. Yes only 18 wins, but finished 6th in one of the best conferences. They won at UVA (only team to do so) and play last 4.5 games without Goods. ARE THEY IN OR OUT?

Anonymous said...

Nevada loses to Utah State in the WAC semis.. another precious bubble slot gone.. I hate to say it FSU fans, but there's not enough room for us now.

Anonymous said...

Don't count Oklahoma State out yet either.. they're coming back from the dead

BSquare said...

Ok State definitely has the talent to win the conference tourney, but that's the only way they're getting in. 6-10 in conference and 0 true road wins will do that to you.

Bracketology 101 said...

Some quick hits...

Memphis likely goes up to a 2 seed with A&M's loss.

The big squeeze is on for bubble teams as expected. We expected Nevada to go down but not Xavier. Xavier now moves into the bubble group but they are likely safe. Air Force and Stanford are in big trouble as well as FSU after their poor showing today. With the way things are going we wouldn't be surprised if another bid got stolen in SEC, ACC, or Big 12. Kansas State, Purdue and Illinois all made their push today and have a great shot at getting bids so long as they each avoid an embarrassing loss on Saturday. As it looks right now (which is bound to change) should both Purdue and Illinois lose on Saturday then it may come down to a choice between the two for the last bid.

How teams have finished will be even more important this year then in years past. There is honestly more deserving tournament teams this year then in the past couple and with so many teams having similar profiles it will come down to the teams last 10 games.

Seeding will likely be harder then choosing the teams to make the field. There are no teams to fill the 4 and 5 lines and a bunch to fill lines 6-10. There will really be little difference between a 7 seed and a 10 seed.

As for Natty's Cavaliers once the dust settles they will be a 6 or 7 seed on Sunday.

NCAA Insider said...

Ya, Tell me all about the RPI crap!
Cal just beat UCLA... Stick that in your RPI. And there are upsets like that all over the country... Computers don't play the games... And now that Nevada was upset tonight, the WAC will have two teams in the dance... We'll see how they do now! Make no mistake, Nevada, Utah State and New Mexico State are all very dangerous teams.

Sean said...

Ya, Tell me all about the RPI crap!
Cal just beat UCLA... Stick that in your RPI.

Very smart comment. Really, you must be an intelligent one. So a lower ranked team in the RPI beating a higher ranked team in the RPI means it sucks? Good logic.

Cal just beat UCLA. Stick that in your NCAA tournament seedings.
Cal just beat UCLA. Stick that in your point spread for the game Vegas.
Cal just beat UCLA. Stick that in your polls.

It was an upset in every facet of evaluating teams. How come the RPI should have magically known that Cal would pull an upset? Why don't any of the other systems deserve any of the blame?

natty said...

Lots of teams got upset in the ACC. Its really not uncommen. Especially against your rival

Ian said...

"Memphis should move up to a 2 seed"

Should, SHOULD!!!, WTF???? What is wrong with you people. There shouldn't be any question about whether or not they should be a 2 seed, the argument should be over whether they should be a 1 seed. Someone said it before and I'll say it again. I don't care who you are, if you run the table in conference and the conference tourney, you deserve a helluva a lot of respect.

I will say this, people love to ignore the Tigers, don't know why but they do. Memphis has one of the deepest benches in the nation, one of the best passing teams in the nation, one of the best coaches in the nation, and a long tradition of basketball excellence, but since they're not in the ACC or Big East they get no love.

I can't tell you how many times this school has tried to get into a better conference, but they always get snubbed. So is it really their fault that their conference schedule isn't stronger. Calipari tries to schedule as tough as he can out-of-conference, but teams are afraid to play the Tigers, cause they know it is not a guaranteed win. Yet the Tigers are not afraid to play anyone, anyone I tell you.

Brandon The Wizz said...

Mister Ian I couldn't agree with you more. I just found out Calipari couldn't get 1 top 25 team to come visit the Fed Ex Forum. None. Hmmm. Wonder Why. Don't give me that they don't play enough good teams bull. They travel others gym, give them something to put on there resume. They went undefeated at home this year. Teams know this. there to scared. Give them a 1. 30-3, 22 game win streak, undefeated conference, undefeated a home. must I keep going. Adleast a 2

Anonymous said...

Everybody has weaknesses but everyone likes to point out Memphis's small flaws. Last year they said they couldn't go far because they have to many freshman. So why are they not saying the same for a young North Carolina team. A Ohio st. team led by a Freshman. Must I say more. It's not fair. We were expected to be the first 1 seed out last year but "almighty" Duke get's bumped off early. UCONN Barely made out of the first round and lost to a G Mason team that was ridiculous. Nova & Memphis's losses were respectable and could have went to any team. These teams that yall glorify will get bumped out the same. I smell DEJAVU!

Anonymous said...

All of these comments and nobody is talking about the 6th rated conference at all. How can any one think the Colonial deserves 2 at-large bids over the MVC? I don't want 2 hear that Drexel is in bcuz they won their bracketbuster against Creighton. If that really holds that much water, then let's discuss missouri st last year. 21 rpi, bracketbuster win, snubbed!! It is time for east and west coast so-called anylists to start giving the MVC the respect it deserves. You can't talk about how strong the MVC is all year, and then forget about them come bracket time. If the big 12(7th rated) gets 4 teams, then the MVC deserves at least 3. No other mid-major has 4 teams in the top 50. Come on people! Get real!!

Brandon The Wizz said...

Thats the problem everybody is trying to make there conference look good. I don't care about any other teams but Memphis. People try to make there conf look good so they will feel good about their team. I don't care if any other team gets in from our conf that's not going to help you win a championship. Because once the tournament starts everyone will be at each others throat regardless conf. Big East had what 7-8 bids last year how many made it to the final four. And they were the "BEST CONFERENCE". My point is why should you care if another team in your conference gets in or not, if your team does? So you can you can say we have a better conf. lol.It's so irelavant!

Anonymous said...

thats my point!! if your team is not from one of the big six conferences, there is no respect. My team (missouri st) will b snubbed again for no reason other than lack of respect. The MVC beat up on the big east in non conference play this year and it wont matter come selection time. the committee is to "big six conference" biased and they should change with the times.

Anonymous said...

Pretty interesting blog you've got here. Thanks the author for it. I like such topics and everything connected to this matter. I definitely want to read a bit more on that blog soon.

Sincerely yours
Alice Tudes