Saturday, March 04, 2006

Weekend Recap

What a wild two days of games...and Championship Week is just getting started.

Cincinnati 78, West Virginia 75
This locks up a bid for the Bearcats, regardless of the Big East tourney.

Illinois 75, Michigan State 68
Michigan State's seed continues to fall.

Winthrop 51, Coastal Carolina 50
Back-to-back dance tickets for the Eagles.

Texas A&M 75, Texas Tech 59
Aggies back up their big win vs. Texas.

George Washington 86, Charlotte 85 (OT)
Great finish to this one. Seeding for GW is going to be very interesting.

Tennessee 68, Vanderbilt 59
Vandy's bubble is burst.

Belmont 74, Lipscomb 69
Belmont advances to their first ever Big Dance.

Bradley 60, Wichita State 52
No more arguing about Bradley - they're a lock.

Indiana 59, Michigan 57
Hoosiers continue the string of bubble teams winning big games this week. This one should lock up a bid for them.

UNC-Wilmington 69, Delaware 56
With so many bubble teams stepping up, Wilmington better keep taking care of business in the CAA tourney.

Air Force 63, Colorado State 59
Falcons are in a very similar situation to Wilmington.

Murray State 74, Samford 57
Racers earn the automatic bid and will be a tough out in the tourney.

UCLA 75, Stanford 54
Cardinals bubble has finally burst, while the Bruins continue to look strong.

Wake Forest 76, N.C. State 63
Wolfpack's seed continues to fall as they lose to the last place Demon Deacons.

Mississippi State 71, Alabama 58
Bad loss for the Tide, they can't afford another one in the opening round of the SEC tourney (Georgia or South Carolina is their likely opponent).

Southern Illinois 55, Northern Iowa 46 OT
SIU-Bradley championship was the only chance for the MVC to get 6 bids and that's what they got. Missouri State and Creighton fans cannot like this result though because if the conference doesn't get 6 bids then one of those 2 teams will be the first one to get the axe. It will be tough making a bracket tomorrow because of this result.

Washington 70, Arizona 67
That's eight in a row for the Huskies as their seed keeps climbing.

George Mason 61, Georgia State 56
The bracket would have gotten a whole lot messier if Mason blew this one.

South Florida 63, Georgetown 56
Bulls' lone Big East win was a shocker, and will knock the Hoyas down a notch.

California 71, USC 60
Bears are the ultimate "bubble" team right now. This past week's results have made it imperative they make a deep Pac-10 tourney run.

Hofstra 72, VCU 66
Pride take care of business and now must beat Mason again to stay alive for a bid. A concern for the three CAA hopefuls still playing: The Colonial has not received more than one bid to the Dance in 20 years. With big conference teams getting the wins they need lately, 3 from the CAA is looking less and less likely.

Memphis 69, Houston 62
Cougars blew a big first half lead, and couldn't get the marquee win they desperately needed.

Colorado 84, Iowa State 82
Buffs are lost in the shuffle right now. They need to make some major noise in the Big 12 tourney.

North Carolina 83, Duke 76
Tar Heels ruin Senior Night at Cameron and continue their tear. UNC, incredibly, is looking like a 3 seed, and will likely be a lot of people's "sleeper" in the tourney.

Villanova 92, Syracuse 82
Devastating lose for the Orange. 7-9 in Big East will not get it done. Need at least one win in Big East tourney to even get consideration now. Two wins will get them back in the field.

Florida 79, Kentucky 64
Gators stopped the bleeding some with a nice road win. Wildcats just need to avoid an upset in the opening round of the SEC tourney and they are a lock.

Florida State 67, Miami 64
Seminoles will lock up a bid with a win over Wake in the first round of the ACC tourney.

Davidson 80, Chattanooga 55
Wildcats win the Southern tourney and punch their ticket.

Southern Illinois 59, Bradley 46
The MVC tournament played out perfectly for the conference, with Southern Illinois - the team most on the bubble going in - winning it all. Right now, the MVC is a five-team league, with Creighton looking like the odd team out. By the way, is it against the rules to break 60 in this conference?

Maryland 71, Virginia 70
Terps aren't dead yet, but they'll need at least two wins in the ACC toruney to get in the conversation.

Texas 72, Oklahoma 48
Impressive win for the Longhorns, who lock up the Big XII tourney's top seed.

Gonzaga 96, San Diego 92 (OT)
Bubble teams breathe a sigh of relief as Gonzaga holds on.

Hofstra 58, George Mason 49
Hofstra still needs to beat Wilmington in the final to get a bid. The Colonial hasn't earned an at-large bid in two decades: Will Mason break that streak? It'll be a long week for the Patriots.


pokerplayr said...

Weak recap. Much better coverage of Championship Week out there than yours. Step it up guys.

Anonymous said...

Well its pretty simple for Stanford. Win the PAC 10 tournament or got to the NIT. UCLA dominated the Cardinal in every phase of the game. a very poor showing for Stanford today

Anonymous said...

Missouri Valley (6)??? Big 12/ACC/Pac-10 less? SIU's season was saved by playing in conference! - They lost to Monmouth and Alaska-Anchorage while winning close against E. Wash and others

andrew said...

A team with a 12-6 PAC-10 record has never missed the big dance. Do you think Cal is safe cause of this fact?

Anonymous said...

Texas A&M should be a lock now. They have won 7 in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10. The Aggies picked the perfect time to get red hot. They have cemented their spot in the NCAA tournament.

duke referees said...

Houston & UTEP let their at-large chances go down the drain. Colorado doesn't belong in. They nearly squandered a large lead to a bad Iowa State team. The Buffs have struggled down the stretch and are NIT material. Indiana is a lock after a good road win at Michigan. I think Alabama is a lock courtesy of their 10-6 SEC record.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Cal can win their first Pac-10 tourney game against USC it should be enough to get them a bid but they wouldn't be a lock. A run to the finals would make them a lock.

Texas A&M is getting close to lock status now. A win in their first Big 12 tourney game (likely against Colorado) will make them a lock. A lose and they will have to wait for next Sunday to be sure.

Colorado had only been in the bracket because all the other bubble teams were doing worse then them. With the way teams stepped up this week they are now on the outside looking in and will need at least 2 wins in the conference tourney to even have a chance at a bid.

James G said...

Southern Illinois may have been saved by winning in conference, but that's a trick that major conferences use all the time - it just so happens the MVC had enough quality of play outside the league to lead to quality of victories inside the league.

People don't seem to blink at the SEC likely getting 6, but several of those teams (Florida, Tennessee, Alabama) only have good wins inside the conference. And note that one of Arkansas's quality wins is a 2 point home win over Missouri State.

That said, I'm thinking Creighton is in a little trouble. Bradley and S. Illnois look good going into the title game (Bradley's RPI is up to 28 as well). N. Iowa has the non-conf wins and Wichita State won the league, ranked 6th. That leaves Missouri State and Creighton. Missouri State has an RPI ranking of 21, which makes me think they are much safer than some people suggest.

Creighton, though, is down to 41, and if Josh Dotzler's not coming back for the NCAA tournament, that's likely to be counted against them.

Anonymous said...

As the 2-seed in the SEC West, Alabama has a bye to the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. Likely QF opponent would be the loser of today's Florida-Kentucky game. Only chance for a bad loss would be if Ole Miss upset one of those teams in the opening round.

Anonymous said...

Do you think NC State fans need to be worried at all about our team missing the tournament given the recent slide? Would we be in trouble with a Friday ACC Tournament loss?

Gabe said...

Creighton and Mizz State must be watching the Syracuse-Nove game today with interest. Cuse has lost 8 of 12 and got whooped by an NIT team.

Likewise, tourneys with a good team in a one-bid league. If GW or Gonzaga don't win their tourney, Ceighton and/or Mizz St. are NIT-bound.

On Cuse: This is what happes when you play 12 games against the Sisters of Mercy Middle School Team to open your season. Depaul beats you by 1600 points when it counts.

Bracketology 101 said...

I wasn't sure if Alabama owned the tie-breaker over Arkansas. So a lose in the quarterfinals for Alabama would probably just mean a lower seed for them.

NC State is a lock. They just aren't looking at a very good seed anymore.

As for Creighton I read that Dotzler will be back in practice this week. But either way they are looking like 6th in line out of the MVC which at this point might not make the cut. The injuries just give the committee another reason to leave them out. If SIU were to lose today they will get the nod over the Bluejays since they swept them in the regular season and Missouri State's RPI and lack of any bad losses gives them the nod over the Bluejays. Creighton will really be sweating it out next Sunday.

Anonymous said...

Florida State should be a lock now, they finally won an easy game that they needed down the strech, although Miami is a team that can bring trouble. A first round ACC tourney win would help though.

Anonymous said...

what in the world are you talking about james g????.....the "trick", there is no way you can argue that the MVC has had "quality" OOC wins, other than the one team....that team is Northern Iowa who beat iowa by a point, lsu by 3, and bucknell in double ot...thats all this conference has to brag about...thats it, that is not even comparable to the major conferences....there is no way in hell this conference deserves 6 bids, creighton, missouri state, and either northern iowa or bradley don't deserve a bid gonna laugh so hard when the mvc pulls the old 0 wins in the NCAA and lose to teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 who they will possibly get more bids in....this way the commitee will put it back to way it should be, less mid majors

hurting terps fan said...

does anyone think that it is possible that if MD goes on to beat UVA and then win 2 games in the ACC tourney that will include a win over Boston College that they can have hope for making the tourney????

Anonymous said...

fsu still needs a win vs wake to clinch a spot - a loss there puts them out. Still, 9-7 in the ACC with a win over Duke makes them a viable team, and puts Syracuse and Creighton out of the picture. Maybe knocks one of the MWC teams out, too.

Anonymous said...

Commentators for UMD/UVa felt that the Terps could get in with 1 more win. They thought 2 would give them a good chance.

I disagree completely. The Terps are not the same team they were with McCray and the committee will take that into consideration. With all of the bubble teams really stepping up their level of play, I think UMD needs 3 ACC Tourney wins (meaning UVa, BC, UNC) to get into the tournament.

Anonymous said...

**Correction to teh above post...GaTech, BC, UNC...not UVa, BC, UNC.

Anonymous said...

Weak... no bracket update, minimal updates. You guys must be sleeping!!

Anonymous said...

What part of Creighton beating George Mason by 20 on a neutral court don't you understand?

Anonymous said...

The MVC is a joke..

Anyone up for fun with numbers?

The RPI counts each home game as either .6 out of .6 for a win or 0 out of 1.4 for a loss. Conversely a road game is 1.4 out of 1.4 for a win and 0 out of .6 for a loss. Your total RPI comes by adding up the total from each game and then dividing by the total possible. not really complicated at all, so….. since road wins/home losses count more than twice (1.4 vs. 0.6) as much as home wins/road losses, 2-5 on the road is better than 2-1 at home given the same quality of opponents:

2-5 on the road: .483
2-1 at home: .462

basically, you have to win 70% of your games at home to break even (.500), but only 30% of your road games to do so.

So when MD(or any BCS school) plays a bunch of home games(which is what BOTH teams want because it is a bigger sold out arena so BOTH teams make more money) out of conference against teams that are as good or even slightly better than the teams the MVC plays out of conference (again half and half home/road or even more on the road), the MVC team needs to only beat 30+% of the other mid majors out of conference on the road to have a higher rpi going into the conference season than MD(or any other big conference school). Then when this MVC team gets in conference they get further boosted from beating the teams in conference on the road that did the same thing. This year the MVC had a perfect storm of away victories that boosted all of their rpi’s before they got into conference play and then by beating each other kept them up.

The idea of making road games worth more then home games makes sense, they just went too far with it. a .8 and 1.2 metric would work much better.

Take Missouri State as an example.
All of their out of conference road wins are against crap teams, then they play out of conference road games against good teams(and lose) to boost the strength of schedule side of their rpi(they also get paid out to play those road games).
Wichita State, same deal. 20St.
play san francisco and missouri kansas city(this a d1 school i guess) on the road, get your road wins booster, play some big ten schools on the road, get your sos up, and then head into conference play vastly overrated...

The MVC should not have more bids(or even close to the same amount)as the ACC plain and simple.