tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post114151028104947130..comments2024-01-27T06:41:13.204-05:00Comments on Bracketology 101: Weekend RecapBracketology 101http://www.blogger.com/profile/01277396896660963269noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141668888058007372006-03-06T13:14:00.000-05:002006-03-06T13:14:00.000-05:00The MVC is a joke..Anyone up for fun with numbers?...The MVC is a joke..<BR/><BR/>Anyone up for fun with numbers? <BR/><BR/>The RPI counts each home game as either .6 out of .6 for a win or 0 out of 1.4 for a loss. Conversely a road game is 1.4 out of 1.4 for a win and 0 out of .6 for a loss. Your total RPI comes by adding up the total from each game and then dividing by the total possible. not really complicated at all, so….. since road wins/home losses count more than twice (1.4 vs. 0.6) as much as home wins/road losses, 2-5 on the road is better than 2-1 at home given the same quality of opponents:<BR/><BR/>2-5 on the road: .483<BR/>2-1 at home: .462<BR/><BR/>basically, you have to win 70% of your games at home to break even (.500), but only 30% of your road games to do so.<BR/><BR/>So when MD(or any BCS school) plays a bunch of home games(which is what BOTH teams want because it is a bigger sold out arena so BOTH teams make more money) out of conference against teams that are as good or even slightly better than the teams the MVC plays out of conference (again half and half home/road or even more on the road), the MVC team needs to only beat 30+% of the other mid majors out of conference on the road to have a higher rpi going into the conference season than MD(or any other big conference school). Then when this MVC team gets in conference they get further boosted from beating the teams in conference on the road that did the same thing. This year the MVC had a perfect storm of away victories that boosted all of their rpi’s before they got into conference play and then by beating each other kept them up.<BR/><BR/>The idea of making road games worth more then home games makes sense, they just went too far with it. a .8 and 1.2 metric would work much better. <BR/><BR/>Take Missouri State as an example. http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=20...m=Missouri%20St.<BR/>All of their out of conference road wins are against crap teams, then they play out of conference road games against good teams(and lose) to boost the strength of schedule side of their rpi(they also get paid out to play those road games).<BR/>Wichita State, same deal. http://kenpom.com/sked.php?team=...am=Wichita% 20St.<BR/>play san francisco and missouri kansas city(this a d1 school i guess) on the road, get your road wins booster, play some big ten schools on the road, get your sos up, and then head into conference play vastly overrated...<BR/><BR/>The MVC should not have more bids(or even close to the same amount)as the ACC plain and simple.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141645951731389472006-03-06T06:52:00.000-05:002006-03-06T06:52:00.000-05:00What part of Creighton beating George Mason by 20 ...What part of Creighton beating George Mason by 20 on a neutral court don't you understand?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141616921177281952006-03-05T22:48:00.000-05:002006-03-05T22:48:00.000-05:00Weak... no bracket update, minimal updates. You g...Weak... no bracket update, minimal updates. You guys must be sleeping!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141614388170339342006-03-05T22:06:00.000-05:002006-03-05T22:06:00.000-05:00**Correction to teh above post...GaTech, BC, UNC.....**Correction to teh above post...GaTech, BC, UNC...not UVa, BC, UNC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141614339923943012006-03-05T22:05:00.000-05:002006-03-05T22:05:00.000-05:00Commentators for UMD/UVa felt that the Terps could...Commentators for UMD/UVa felt that the Terps could get in with 1 more win. They thought 2 would give them a good chance.<BR/><BR/>I disagree completely. The Terps are not the same team they were with McCray and the committee will take that into consideration. With all of the bubble teams really stepping up their level of play, I think UMD needs 3 ACC Tourney wins (meaning UVa, BC, UNC) to get into the tournament.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141606054120269072006-03-05T19:47:00.000-05:002006-03-05T19:47:00.000-05:00fsu still needs a win vs wake to clinch a spot - a...fsu still needs a win vs wake to clinch a spot - a loss there puts them out. Still, 9-7 in the ACC with a win over Duke makes them a viable team, and puts Syracuse and Creighton out of the picture. Maybe knocks one of the MWC teams out, too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141593111288504112006-03-05T16:11:00.000-05:002006-03-05T16:11:00.000-05:00does anyone think that it is possible that if MD g...does anyone think that it is possible that if MD goes on to beat UVA and then win 2 games in the ACC tourney that will include a win over Boston College that they can have hope for making the tourney????Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141592905720002762006-03-05T16:08:00.000-05:002006-03-05T16:08:00.000-05:00what in the world are you talking about james g???...what in the world are you talking about james g????.....the "trick", there is no way you can argue that the MVC has had "quality" OOC wins, other than the one team....that team is Northern Iowa who beat iowa by a point, lsu by 3, and bucknell in double ot...thats all this conference has to brag about...thats it, that is not even comparable to the major conferences....there is no way in hell this conference deserves 6 bids, creighton, missouri state, and either northern iowa or bradley don't deserve a bid either.....im gonna laugh so hard when the mvc pulls the old 0 wins in the NCAA and lose to teams from the ACC, SEC, and Big 12 who they will possibly get more bids in....this way the commitee will put it back to way it should be, less mid majorsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141590452208077992006-03-05T15:27:00.000-05:002006-03-05T15:27:00.000-05:00Florida State should be a lock now, they finally w...Florida State should be a lock now, they finally won an easy game that they needed down the strech, although Miami is a team that can bring trouble. A first round ACC tourney win would help though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141588448261302482006-03-05T14:54:00.000-05:002006-03-05T14:54:00.000-05:00I wasn't sure if Alabama owned the tie-breaker ove...I wasn't sure if Alabama owned the tie-breaker over Arkansas. So a lose in the quarterfinals for Alabama would probably just mean a lower seed for them.<BR/><BR/>NC State is a lock. They just aren't looking at a very good seed anymore.<BR/><BR/>As for Creighton I read that Dotzler will be back in practice this week. But either way they are looking like 6th in line out of the MVC which at this point might not make the cut. The injuries just give the committee another reason to leave them out. If SIU were to lose today they will get the nod over the Bluejays since they swept them in the regular season and Missouri State's RPI and lack of any bad losses gives them the nod over the Bluejays. Creighton will really be sweating it out next Sunday.Bracketology 101https://www.blogger.com/profile/01277396896660963269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141581887492769682006-03-05T13:04:00.000-05:002006-03-05T13:04:00.000-05:00Creighton and Mizz State must be watching the Syra...Creighton and Mizz State must be watching the Syracuse-Nove game today with interest. Cuse has lost 8 of 12 and got whooped by an NIT team.<BR/><BR/>Likewise, tourneys with a good team in a one-bid league. If GW or Gonzaga don't win their tourney, Ceighton and/or Mizz St. are NIT-bound.<BR/><BR/>On Cuse: This is what happes when you play 12 games against the Sisters of Mercy Middle School Team to open your season. Depaul beats you by 1600 points when it counts.Gabehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14313270027747810794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141575957374353292006-03-05T11:25:00.000-05:002006-03-05T11:25:00.000-05:00Do you think NC State fans need to be worried at a...Do you think NC State fans need to be worried at all about our team missing the tournament given the recent slide? Would we be in trouble with a Friday ACC Tournament loss?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141572836987438972006-03-05T10:33:00.000-05:002006-03-05T10:33:00.000-05:00As the 2-seed in the SEC West, Alabama has a bye t...As the 2-seed in the SEC West, Alabama has a bye to the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. Likely QF opponent would be the loser of today's Florida-Kentucky game. Only chance for a bad loss would be if Ole Miss upset one of those teams in the opening round.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141568323459381362006-03-05T09:18:00.000-05:002006-03-05T09:18:00.000-05:00Southern Illinois may have been saved by winning i...Southern Illinois may have been saved by winning in conference, but that's a trick that major conferences use all the time - it just so happens the MVC had enough quality of play outside the league to lead to quality of victories inside the league.<BR/><BR/>People don't seem to blink at the SEC likely getting 6, but several of those teams (Florida, Tennessee, Alabama) only have good wins inside the conference. And note that one of Arkansas's quality wins is a 2 point home win over Missouri State.<BR/><BR/>That said, I'm thinking Creighton is in a little trouble. Bradley and S. Illnois look good going into the title game (Bradley's RPI is up to 28 as well). N. Iowa has the non-conf wins and Wichita State won the league, ranked 6th. That leaves Missouri State and Creighton. Missouri State has an RPI ranking of 21, which makes me think they are much safer than some people suggest.<BR/><BR/>Creighton, though, is down to 41, and if Josh Dotzler's not coming back for the NCAA tournament, that's likely to be counted against them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141544203393016872006-03-05T02:36:00.000-05:002006-03-05T02:36:00.000-05:00If Cal can win their first Pac-10 tourney game aga...If Cal can win their first Pac-10 tourney game against USC it should be enough to get them a bid but they wouldn't be a lock. A run to the finals would make them a lock.<BR/><BR/>Texas A&M is getting close to lock status now. A win in their first Big 12 tourney game (likely against Colorado) will make them a lock. A lose and they will have to wait for next Sunday to be sure.<BR/><BR/>Colorado had only been in the bracket because all the other bubble teams were doing worse then them. With the way teams stepped up this week they are now on the outside looking in and will need at least 2 wins in the conference tourney to even have a chance at a bid.Bracketology 101https://www.blogger.com/profile/01277396896660963269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141536155776069682006-03-05T00:22:00.000-05:002006-03-05T00:22:00.000-05:00Houston & UTEP let their at-large chances go down ...Houston & UTEP let their at-large chances go down the drain. Colorado doesn't belong in. They nearly squandered a large lead to a bad Iowa State team. The Buffs have struggled down the stretch and are NIT material. Indiana is a lock after a good road win at Michigan. I think Alabama is a lock courtesy of their 10-6 SEC record.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141535275921575462006-03-05T00:07:00.000-05:002006-03-05T00:07:00.000-05:00Texas A&M should be a lock now. They have won 7 i...Texas A&M should be a lock now. They have won 7 in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10. The Aggies picked the perfect time to get red hot. They have cemented their spot in the NCAA tournament.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141533773508626302006-03-04T23:42:00.000-05:002006-03-04T23:42:00.000-05:00A team with a 12-6 PAC-10 record has never missed ...A team with a 12-6 PAC-10 record has never missed the big dance. Do you think Cal is safe cause of this fact?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141531094182609782006-03-04T22:58:00.000-05:002006-03-04T22:58:00.000-05:00Missouri Valley (6)??? Big 12/ACC/Pac-10 less? SIU...Missouri Valley (6)??? Big 12/ACC/Pac-10 less? SIU's season was saved by playing in conference! - They lost to Monmouth and Alaska-Anchorage while winning close against E. Wash and othersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141514793272083262006-03-04T18:26:00.000-05:002006-03-04T18:26:00.000-05:00Well its pretty simple for Stanford. Win the PAC ...Well its pretty simple for Stanford. Win the PAC 10 tournament or got to the NIT. UCLA dominated the Cardinal in every phase of the game. a very poor showing for Stanford todayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9072987.post-1141512641399762762006-03-04T17:50:00.000-05:002006-03-04T17:50:00.000-05:00Weak recap. Much better coverage of Championship ...Weak recap. Much better coverage of Championship Week out there than yours. Step it up guys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com