Thursday, March 09, 2006

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 10

Bracketology 101 will start its Weekend Update Friday.

Here is Chris and Craig's latest field:

Last Four In
Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Missouri State, George Mason

Last Four Out
Hofstra, Michigan, Creighton, Colorado

In This Bracket
Syracuse, Xavier

Out This Bracket
Florida State, Michigan

Conference Breakdown
(Automatic bids in multiple bid conferences are the first teams listed. Teams who have already earned a bid are in bold.)
Big East (9), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), MVC (5), ACC (4), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (4), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), A-10 (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, George Washington

Big East - Villanova, UConn, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana

Big 12 - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - NC-Wilmington, George Mason

C-USA - Memphis, UAB

Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Iona

MAC - Kent State

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State

Northeast - Monmouth

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Northwestern State

SWAC - Southern

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds

The 1s
Villanova, UConn, Duke, Memphis

The 2s
Ohio State, Texas, Illinois, North Carolina

The 3s
Gonzaga, LSU, UCLA, Pittsburgh

The 4s
Iowa, Tennessee, Washington, Boston College

The 5s
Kansas, Florida, Oklahoma, West Virginia

The 6s
Georgetown, Michigan State, Nevada, George Washington

The 7s
Marquette, Wisconsin, Arkansas, North Carolina State

The 8s
Indiana, Wichita State, Bucknell, Alabama

The 9s
Kentucky, Southern Illinois, UAB, Arizona

The 10s
Northern Iowa, Syracuse, NC-Wilmington, Bradley

The 11s
California, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, San Diego State

The 12s
Seton Hall, Missouri State, George Mason, Kent State

The 13s
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, South Alabama, Iona, Xavier

The 14s
Winthrop, Pacific, Murray State, Montana

The 15s
Northwestern State, Albany, Davidson, Penn

The 16s
Oral Roberts, Delaware State, Belmont, Monmouth (Play-In Game), Southern (Play-In Game)

The Bracket

Bracket - March 10

Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

Seton Hall in? We would be happy in Soputh Ornage either way. If yes, its the bIOg Dance. If no, Orr gets fired and we start over. My gut says they are in and I think they should actually bump Cincinnati(Who the Pirates beat) but that doesn't appear to who it will be donw to. Can't wait till Sunday -- I'm wasting way too much time at work looking at the wbesites.

Anonymous said...

the ACC, the #3 rate RPI conference is not getting only 4 of 12 teams in. if mason and seton hall are in, Maryland is in...

James G said...

Teams get bid, not conferences. In 2003, the Big East was the 4th best RPI conference and only managed 4 bids. That seame year, the ACC was 3rd and only managed 4 bids (granted it was out of 9, not 12). That year, the Mountain West pulled in 3 bids, the Pac-10 (ranked 7th) pulled in 5 bids, CUSA (ranked 8th) pulled in 4 bids.

Anonymous said...

Thats fine if you want to say that teams get bids and not conferences, but MD's resume is better than Missouri State's, Michigan's, Colorado's, Creighton's and Hofstra's, so far they've got 19 wins in the 11th toughest s.o.s., they are the only team in the ACC that had to play duke and carolina twice, they lost their best player half way through the season, struggled for a bit without him, but now the group is finally gelling without him, you take away most bubble team's best player and they would absolutely fold down the stretch, but MD has fought hard, and Gary Williams has done an excellent job having them prepared for the end of the season despite everything they've gone through, they're on a 3 game winning streak in which they've played incredible defense, and have a chance tonight to lock up a bid, i believe if they beat B.C. tonight, they should be a lock, no doubt about it

Chris said...

You take away the best player from a bubble team and the committee doesn't take them unless they show that they can beat someone good without that player. If Maryland wins tonight then they will have shown that and will have a good chance. Personally I don't think Seton Hall is in. Missouri State has a better resume because they don't have any bad losses like Maryland does, and the fact that those bad losses occured without their best player doesn't matter because Maryland will be without that player for the rest of the season.

James G said...

Seton Hall should not be allowed to back into the big dance. The Pirates have 4 bad losses in the last 6 games. The Pirates OOC resume is a joke. Richmond even beat the NIT worthy Pirates. Duke crushed Hall 93-40. Seton Hall came up small against bad competition. Cincy's RPI is 18 points better than Seton Hall. IMO, Louis Orr will finish his career in NIT

Eric Z said...

God, am I wasting too much time at work.

Compare these two teams:

Team A
18-11, SOS #12
RPI 44
Road/Neutral: 4-9
Best win: RPI #32
Worst Loss: RPI #81
9-3 non conf, non conf SOS 56
6th place in 3rd best conference
Last 10: 5-5
Rec vs RPI 1-50: 2-7
Rec vs RPI 51-100: 5-4

Team B
20-8, SOS #46
RPI 19
Road/Neutral 8-6
Best Win: RPI #25
Worst Loss: RPI #42
8-1 non conf, non conf SOS 41
T-2nd in 6th best conference
Last 10: 8-2
REc vs RPI 1-50: 4-8
Rec vs RPI 51-100: 1-0

James G said...

That "James G" that said Seton Hall is a joke isn't the same as me, the most common "James G" over here the past few weeks.

My current projected field has SHU just out, but I wouldn't call them a joke.

andrew said...

Eric Z is right on the money. Missouri State belongs in over Maryland. FSU even beat the Terps by double digits. Heaven forbid we mention how Clemson & UNC also slaughtered the Terps.

Eric Z said...

Now try team C:

21-8, SOS #61
RPI 41
R/N: 6-5
Best win: #32
Worst Loss: #154
11-2 non conf, non-conf 209
4th place in 3rd best conference
Last 10: 6-4
Rec vs 1-50: 4-5
Rec vs 51-100: 7-2
1 sub-100 loss

Is this team that much better than A or B?

Bracketology 101 said...

I know everyone likes to do the compare this team to that team just based on RPI numbers and records and not give the team names. The only problem with that is you don't see who the team won and lost too which is important. For example, Team A beat the #45 RPI and Team B beat the #56 RPI team. So it's supposed to be assumed that Team A beat a better team but #45 RPI is St. Joe's while the #56 RPI team is Cal. We all know Cal is a better win.

If Maryland can win tonight against BC they have a good chance at a bid. I don't think they'll be stealing that bid from Missouri State though because their RPI is just too good to get left out.

duke referees said...

What the hell is Joe Lunardi smoking? He still has Michigan in his new bracket despite their 2-7 finish

Anonymous said...

I think Maryland has their season today. Win your in lose your NIT bound.

FSU is a real stretch now as is Michigan.

Anonymous said...

and 4-8 vs the top fifty when all of those wins are at home in a mid major conference means nothing to me. missouri state has beat nobody. md's win at home over BC is better than any win miss state has. shoot Md's win over arkansas on a neutral court is better. md's win at UVA is better.... and when your road record is 8-6 against ark state, oral roberts, evansville, drake, illinois state, indiana state.... nobody cares...

Anonymous said...

Remember that 3 of Marylands 18 wins are against a very very bad Georgia Tech team. Maryland has a chance to make a statement today but as a fan of college basketball, having Missouri State or Hofstra in seems much more interesting to watch rather than a very talented but not all that "good" Maryland team.

Also you can play all the "tough" teams all you want but the fact of the matter is Duke and NC whipped the Terps by a combined score of 259-330 (averagee of 17.75 pts per game) that to me is not really "competitive"

Anonymous said...

HMMMMM

The same Indiana State team that beat Indiana...

The same Oral Roberts team that hammered USC by 20 who happened to beat a pretty decent team by the name of UNC...

Dude... God did not create the ACC on the 8th day. There is very good basketball in other parts of the country, FACE IT. Missouri State is no slouch. Man what I would not give to see 3 MVC teams make the sweet 16 by beating power conference teams.

Andrew said...

Let me get this straight: one bad loss (GW) means that you drop three lines (12 teams) in the seedings? That's preposterous.

What, does that make U.Conn a #4 seed now??

Just for comparison: Georgetown loses to the Coastal Florida School For the Mentally Insane (or whatever), 0-16 in conference, and is still on the #6 line.

James G said...

Missouri State is likely one of those teams that will get in on RPI alone. None of their wins are of the great nature, but thier overall RPI is now in the teens. There have been a few of those in the past.

What really helped their RPI is that they have no bad losses. 8 losses in the top 50 and 8 losses overall.

Anonymous said...

3 MVC teams in the sweet 16. wow that would be awesome. almost as awesome as when the ACC does that every (http://www.infoplease.com/ipsa/A0932141.html) single (http://www.infoplease.com/ipsa/A0922790.html) freaking (http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/mayhem/history/yearbyyear) year (4 DIFFERENT teams(3 national champions) in the final game in the last 5 years)...

Anonymous said...

The MVC does not get 8 McDonald's All-Americans every year too. The ACC is great, I have not said they are not but lets not give Maryland a free pass for being in a good league. The fact remains they are NIT quality this year.

Anonymous said...

Wow, is this college football or college basketball people??.....you're saying that Missouri State should be in soley based on their rpi...last time i checked all that is, is a math formula just like the bcs....now it can be one of many factors, but should not be the main reason, these great top 50 rpi wins you're talking about are home wins against their own conference, is that really that impressive where they should get a pass for losing by 15 to another bubble team in their first game of their conference tourney, they weren't even competitive in a game where the could have locked up a bid, the same thing just happened to fsu and immediately everyone says their out, all based on the fact that they had such a soft ooc schedule, but last time i checked missouri st didn't beat anyone worth mentioning ooc either, oral roberts and wisc-milwaukee don't count......im just sick of people talking about the rpi, it is a math formula, they only have one win worth bragging about, that is a 3 point road win against Northern Iowa, but that doesn't look as impressive when they turnaround and lose to them by 15 in the conference tourney.....if we're going to take fsu out, we gotta take missou st out as well....they have similar overall and conference records, not many big wins, although outplaying duke twice is more impressive than a road win against northern iowa during their struggles down the stretch....leave them both out

pokerplayr said...

...and on the 8th day, God created the ACC.

pokerplayr said...

...and amongst those in ACC country, the only three letters that matter is

ACC

...or to quote former Georgia Tech coach Bobby Cremins, "All this [stuff] about these mid-Division I schools - they'd better respect the big conferences," grumbled Cremins, the former Georgia Tech coach who now is broadcasting for the conference TV network, as he watched practices at Greensboro Coliseum yesterday.

Josh said...

Noles are in. period.

andrew said...

GW is 32 in the RPI. How in the world will they get a 4 seed? I have said all along that GW shouldn't be any higher than a 6. Now after that loss they should drop to 7-8 seed. GW's resume is trash, that guy who thinks GW should be a 4 seed doesn't have a clue about basketball.

andrew said...

Josh is 100% wrong! Florida State will not be selected on Sunday

Anonymous said...

andrew, you do not have a clue about basketball.......the bottom line is g.w. went undefeated in conference play the latter weeks w/out their star, how many teams do that each year??...hardly any, while the A-10 is down big time the passed couple of years, that is still impressive, the only other team to do that in the country was gonzaga, but g.w. had a decent ooc schedule, and finished the season with 2 losses, very few teams ever accompish this....now your "opinion" of how good they are should not be how you get seeded, everyone said the same thing about St. Joe's, how they're so overated, they got blown out in the first round of the A-10 tourney that year, still got a one seed despite billy packer crying about it, and ended up losing on a last second shot in the elite eight.....based on what G.W. did this year, you have to give them a 4 seed or better, that is why andrew is not on the committee, your reasoning is 100% subjective

Anonymous said...

The Andrew that is comparing GW's loss and seed drop to Georgetown's is an idiot. GW at a #4 was a seed above where they should have been (based on RPI a true 5/6). They got bumped because they had no bad losses. However, now that they have lost the fact that they have 0 wins over tourney teams (assuming BC beats MD tonight) means they lose that bump. GU has 5 wins over tourney teams, including a win over a #1 seed. Besides, GU has been dropped two lines because of the loss. They would be a #4 if they didn't crap out at SFla.

Eric Z said...

Two responses to anonymous:

1st, you say that Missouri St "all those great top 50 wins, all at home"..
and then you say Missouri St. biggest win is a "road win vs. Northern Iowa..."

So get your facts straight. Missouri St has one top 50 road win.

Now - I really want to hear the logic for throwing out the Wisc Milwaukee win.

That was a TRUE road game against a top 60 team who needed the win just as badly.

Shall we compare true road OOC wins?
UW-Milwaukee (who, by the way, was a sweet 16 team last year) for Missouri St
or
Jacksonville (#331) for Florida St
or
(nobody) for Maryland. No true road wins.

So let's set the record straight when talking about OOC road wins.

Chris said...

Anonymous guy who is comparing GW to Gonzaga is way off in talking about schedules. GW played two decent teams out of conference and everyone else was absolutely awful, even Karl Hobbes won't argue that they had a decent out of conference schedule and their AD admitted that their ceiling was a 4. Gonzaga actually played a decent out of conference schedule, thus more people give them a break about their weak conference. The same is true of St. Joe's, also the A-10 was much stronger that year as Xavier was a strong team, and there is no club comparable to that one in this year's A-10.

James G said...

What does if this is college basketball or college footbll have to with it? College football uses numbers to determine their champion excatly, but college basketball has used the RPI as a guide a lot longer than that. And no team ever with MO State's RPI ranking was left out. And they have no bad losses. Every loss they had was either to a tournament team or another bubble team.

And using history as a guide, they are a lot more likely to get in than Florida State. Just look at last year when Maryland was left out despite beating Duke twice, and St. Mary's and UCLA got in, each with only a single quality win, but with stellar RPI rankings.

Anonymous said...

mo state has a single quality win?

Anonymous said...

I don't think that last year people were fully aware of how much the "new" RPI was helping mid majors. This year they have the MVC to point to. A conference of ten teams with a subpar ooc win loss record, with one team with quality wins and all of a sudden five teams are "getting in". I don't think the selection committee is going to buy it. They are going to say the new Rpi needs to be tweaked. And that will be that...

Chris said...

Wait, so Indiana State's win over Indiana isn't a quality win? I'd say that it's of a much higher quality than anything on Maryland's resume.

Anonymous said...

Easiest decision of the day for bracketologists: Colorado is safely off the bubble (they were probably a long-shot anyway) and safely in the NIT.

The ACC vs. MVC sniping that's been going on here for weeks (months?) is amusing. Is it possible -- just POSSIBLE -- that the MVC is actually pretty good right now? Just because WSU or SIU aren't as good as Duke or North Carolina doesn't mean they aren't as good as Maryland or Florida State. As soon as the high-and-mighty ACC actually lowers themselves to play MVC people in North Carolina, Florida, and Maryland may never know that people can play ball in the flyover states.

I just hope there's at least one MVC-ACC match-up in the first round. Assuming that all (except the top echelon of ACC) teams of the two conferences will be seeded between 5 and 12, there are some potential match-ups there. It would be nice to sort of settle this thing on the court.

James G said...

The old RPI is still out there:

Go to rpi.heins.net and you'll find calculations from the Old RPI. You need to click it (instead of "new" which is the mangled one people thought existed last year or "hybrid" which is the current one.") Also, look for a thing on the web called the "Dance Card" which is still based on the old RPI.

In the Dance Card, Florida State is significantly out, although Maryland is just barely out. N. Iowa is barely out, while Missouri State and George Mason are barely in, Hofstra more comfortably so.

Old RPI #s for some of these teams:
Missouri State - #26
Cincinnati - #27
Northern Iowa - #29
Maryland - #34
George Mason - #38
Bradley - #44
Hofstra - #45
Creighton - #46
Seton Hall - #48
Florida State - #61

It helps some, but not as much as people claim. All 6 of the MVC teams would have still been on the board in the old system. And I think the new system has done precisely what it was designed to do - improve the rankings of those teams that played more road games.

Anonymous said...

Update: BAMA loses again. That moves them to 17-12 on the year with no good out of conference wins.

Now I guess they get a 9 seed while some 20 win team gets left out.

Bubbleteams said...

Did not know the ONLY criteria for inclusion as an at-large team is OOC wins.

FYI-Alabama is the ONLY SEC team to have at least one win against the top four teams from each division of the SEC (Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, LSU, Arkansas and Mississippi State).

Anonymous said...

Other than RPI, someone tell me why UMD is barely out while FSU is significantly out? Maryland has done NOTHING since losing McCray. FSU has even beaten UMD H2H...convincingly, too.

Another example of how the RPI is crock.

Bracketology 101 said...

Two quick hits...

GW was a three seed going into yesterday's bracket as a best case scenario. If they won the A-10 tournament, they would have been a three. Their reputation has been suspect all season, and losing in the first round (Pops or no Pops) combined with a 36 RPI hurs their case for a high seed even more.

Missouri State's spot in the bracket isn't really a matter of opinion right now, it's simple math. The committee is not going to leave out a team with a 19 RPI, with no bad losses, and an 8-2 record in their last 10 games. It just won't happen.

There's no reason to talk about Maryland until they beat Boston College tonight. If they lose to BC, the Terps are still behind FSU for a bid.

pokerplayr said...

RPI is only a crock to some of you because you are "homers" who think the power conferences should get 7-8 teams in every year just because you lose to good teams and there are the initials ACC or SEC above your name in the standings. It is about time teams like Maryland, Florida State and Colorado start being kept out of the tournament because they sleepwalk through too many games in their schedule. Win at Virginia Tech or at Temple or at Clemson (hell, even Elon was MIGHTY Elon was able to win at Clemson) or at Iowa State, Kansas State or Nebraska and then brag about how worthy your tournament teams is.

Anonymous said...

I am amused how NO Michigan fans are bitching about their sudden exclusion from the tournament.

My only gues is either

A) Michigan fans REALLY do not care about any sport other than football.

or

B) There is not a single Michigan fan/alum that has figured out how to turn on a computer yet.

pokerplayr said...

RPI is only a crock to some of you because you are "homers" who think the power conferences should get 7-8 teams in every year just because you lose to good teams and there are the initials ACC or SEC above your name in the standings. It is about time teams like Maryland, Florida State and Colorado start being kept out of the tournament because they sleepwalk through too many games in their schedule. Win at Virginia Tech or at Temple or at Clemson (hell, even MIGHTY Elon was able to win at Clemson) or at Iowa State, Kansas State or Nebraska and then brag about how worthy your tournament teams is.

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