Thursday, March 02, 2006

Thursday's Games To Watch

After a huge night last night for teams on the bubble, a much lighter slate tonight...

Memphis at UAB
Can the Blazers follow in the footsteps of FSU and A&M?

Syracuse at DePaul

Tricky conference road game for the Orange; they need it to guarantee a .500 conference mark.

UCLA at California
A win here would work wonders for Cal's 60 RPI.

Wisconsin at Michigan State
Inconsistent Spartans need to bounce back from the Indiana disaster. They also need to try to get to 8-8 in the Big Ten and avoid a serious seed hit.

Conference Tournament Action
Missouri Valley
Illinois State vs. Evansville, Indiana State vs. Drake

Big South
High Point vs. Winthrop, Charleston Southern vs. Coastal Carolina

Northeast

Sacred Heart vs. CCSU, Robert Morris vs. Mount St. Mary's, Quinnipiac vs. Fairleigh Dickinson, Long Island vs. Monmouth

Southern
Wofford at Appalachian State, UNC-Greensboro vs. Western Carolina, Citadel vs. Furman

Atlantic Sun
Mercer vs. Lipscomb, Campbell vs. Belmont, Gardner-Webb vs. ETSU, Stetson vs. Florida Atlantic

23 comments:

Douglas said...

Should Cal win tonight at UCLA then I would think they are guaranteed a spot in the tourney being a 12 win team, plus a share of the lead, from the Pac-10. No matter what their RPI or SOS happens to be.

Mich St. needs this home win over Wisc tonight. Although, it would just be another home win for them as they can't win on the road, it is important for them if they want a #8 seed or higher. Otherwise I think they could fall down to a 10 seed. How would you like to be the #7 seed facing MSU or the #2 that faces them in the second round. Not saying they'd win, just a tough match-up.

UAB just needs to play Memphis close to show they can compete with a good team. I think they are in either way, but a win would be nice to solidify their hold as a bubble team that gets in.

Syracuse, needs to win at DePaul or people will have another arrow to shoot at their bubble. They do play in a tough league but they need this win to be in. Their best in conference win was a 2 point win over WVU at the Dome. Their second best conference win??....pick from Cincy, ND, or L'ville. Not too impressive in my book.

andrew said...

UCLA is playing at Cal tonight. I completely disagree that UAB is in either way. They have to beat Memphis to get in. The only advantage UAB may have is that they have had success in the NCAA tournament in the last 2 years.

Anonymous said...

Teams will be encouraged to play a cupcake OOC schedule if Colorado is given an at large spot. Texas & Kansas beat up the NIT worthy Buffs. The sad thing is so did Nebraska and Kansas State. The win over Oklahoma is not impressive. Oklahoma nearly lost home games to Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and K State.

Douglas said...

OK, so UCLA is at Cal. I was just going by what 101 had up there. And yes, I was thinking about the past few years in the tourney for UAB is why I think they are in.

Anonymous said...

To whom it may concern, Texas & Kanses beat up the Buffs at home. When KU beat the Buffs earlier on the road, it was the first conference game for both teams. What I am trying to say is that the Buffs win over OU was somewhat impressive, but the fact of the matter is late in the season when a ranked team goes on the road to play a bubble teams, it's hard to win. I would say Duke & Texas would agree. Therefore I think CU's win over OU is slightly impressive. What wasn't impressive is CU's bad losses since then.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of OU....I really can't get a handle on them, but here is an interesting situation, that hopefully B101 can shed some light on. IF....OU wins at Texas and no matter what KU does at K-St., the seeds in the Big XII tourney will be 1. KU, 2. OU, 3. UT (this is because the tiebreakers go division opponents first and OU would be 2-0 vs UT, 0-1 vs KU). That would mean a possible semi-final match-up of OU/UT. What I wanted to know is what would be better for OU's seeding? Winning in Austin on Sunday and likely losing to UT in conf. tourney (I can't see them beating UT for a 3rd time) or losing on Sunday, being the 3 seed and winning a semifinal vs KU, avenging an earlier 1 point loss and keeping KU out of the conference finals?

Anonymous said...

It will be interesting to see if the committee rewards, FSU, A&M, CU for playing farce non-conference schedules. It hurt A&M last year (no bid), and it has hurt other teams too (USU two years ago). FSU and A&M need to back up those big wins to get in. Same goes for UAB if they win tonight, although their out-of-conference is quite a bit better than the other three.

Bracketology 101 said...

Couple quick hits...

Oklahoma's seeding would be most helped by a marquee win, so your scenario in which they beat Texas Sunday and then lose to the Longhorns in the Big XII tourney would help them the most. Two wins over Texas, especially one tonight in Austin, would overshadow OU's loss to Kansas (who weren't competitive in their only game vs. the Longhorns). OU also has a huge RPI edge (12 vs. 39) in their favor. Right now, we have them both on the 6 line, but if your first scenario holds true, the Sooners would likely be a seed line higher Selection Sunday. Their best case seeding is probably a 4.

UAB is in no way safe if they "play a close game and lose" tonight. The wins by FSU and Texas A&M gave both of those teams an edge over UAB, who has been in our bracket the last few weeks in large part because they still had a game left vs. Memphis. With their pathetic OOC resume, they need this win over Memphis - and a finals run the C-USA tourney - to feel safe.

cameron randall said...

Will Syracuse be rewarded for that 39 point loss to Depaul? Did anyone keep track of how many wide open dunks/layups Depaul got? It was like Syracuse didn't have anything to play for. They didn't hustle back on defense or anything.

Bubbleteams said...

Syracuse, Seton Hall and Cincinnati have created the one of most interesting dilemmas for the selection this season. Which two of the three teams (or perhaps not even 2?) get into the tournament. You could argue that none of the three teams has played well enough (no big upsets, BAD losses, lackluster play) to get an at-large inivte to the NCAA Tournament. While most teams seem to be a big win away from a solid chance at an at-large bid (Texas A&M, Indiana, Florida State, UAB, etc.), none of these three teams have been capable of such play. At least each squad has a big game this weekend to try and get that one last signature win that almost every other team has made this past week.

Bracketology 101 said...

Comment on Lunardi's daily updates...

Here's why daily updates at this point are stupid. Lunardi updated his bracket Wednesday and puts Seton Hall in after they beat Cinci and takes UAB out. Then on Thursday he puts in FSU after they beat Duke and takes Seton Hall back out. Now tomorrow he will have to put UAB back in after their win tonight. So then what is he going to do take out FSU or A&M out? That's why brackets that make their selections as if the season ended today are stupid. There are lots of important games left to be played and daily updates are not necessary till next week when teams are playing their last game.

Anonymous said...

Then there were 2. UCLA & Washington are the only 2 alive for the PAC 10 regular season title. Is Cal a lock if they beat USC Saturday? Stanford barely squeaked past USC. UAB locked up an at large IMHO

Jim said...

Wouldn't it be something if Syracuse, Cincy, and Seton Hall all lose this weekend? It is very possible as all 3 teams have very tough games. I know it only counts as 1 loss, but Syracuse looked unmotivated like they could care less. When is the last time Syracuse gave up over 100 points? They are noted for that tricky zone.

Anonymous said...

Cal has an RPI in the 50s and a 17-9 record. They better get to at least 18 wins to feel safe. USC has Gabe Pruitt & Rashaun Cromwell back so they won't be a pushover. The Trojans nearly beat Stanford tonight. It is very likely that Cal will play USC in the 1st round of PAC 10 tournament next Thursday

Anonymous said...

I think they said tonight that Syracuse hadn't given up 100 points in 14 years.

Anonymous said...

Seton Hall's 3 point loss to DePaul no longer looks like such a bad loss when compared to what happened to Syracuse tonight.

Anonymous said...

Seton Hall's 3 point loss to DePaul no longer looks like such a bad loss when compared to what happened to Syracuse tonight.

Anonymous said...

I still don't understand why Cal is getting so much respect. Yes they are 11-6 in the Pac 10, but the Pac 10 is pathetic this year outside of UCLA and Washington.

Cal has 2 home losses to RPI +150 teams and a road loss to Eastern Michigan ranked #298! Not to mention a home loss to Big East bottom feeder Depaul.

They have 1 solid win @UCLA a team they lost to tonight.

James G said...

Well, I had in Cal in my field based largely on the road win over UCLA and a home win over Arizona (since Arizona's 19 RPI, I think that counts as a quality win). However, I also thought that they would beat UCLA yesterday. Without that UCLA win, and with FSU, UAB, and Texas A&M all pulling off recent wins, I think Cal's definitely in a little trouble. I think they need to at least beat USC and win 1 game in the Pac-10 tournament at this point to be given serious consideration. Even that might be enough. A 2nd win in the Pac-10 tournament, which would probably mean beating Arizona, Washington, or UCLA would be seriously helpful to their cause.

Bracketology 101 said...

Cal still doesn't need to pull off anything huge to get in a bid. As long as they beat USC this weekend and then win their first game in the Pac-10 tourney (which will be against one of the bottom teams in the Pac-10) then they should still get a bid. Their RPI is still questionable but if they win their next two and then lose to one of the top teams in the Pac-10 it could very well crack the top 50.

Anonymous said...

Don't be surprised to see USC beat Cal Saturday. Cal is not nearly as great as Chris/Craig keep saying they are!

Anonymous said...

You guys are wrong about Cal playing a bottum feeder in the PAC 10 tourney. They will either play Stanford, USC, or Arizona. UW and UCLA have already locked down the top 2 seeds. So USC is hardly playing a bottum feeder.

Bracketology 101 said...

You're right, either way Cal needs two wins and they are in.