Monday, February 28, 2005

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Feb. 27

Here are Chris and Craig's Field of 65 for Feb. 27:

The Breakdown
Every week it gets harder and harder to find 65 teams.

Big Conferences
The Big East has become a big mess. Four teams (ND, Pitt, G'town, and WVU) are on the bubble now. ND is in the best shape out of all of them. The only reason they are in this position is because of their loss at home against UCLA Sunday. They still have a good chance to get to 10-6 in conference with two home games remaining (Rutgers and Pitt) and should be fine. Pitt in next in line because of their 3 game losing streak. Their out of conference schedule was very weak which gives them a lousy RPI; it also doesn't help that they lost to WVU twice. But they have beaten Syracuse twice and won at UConn. They do have the toughest schedule remaining (@BC, @ND). They need to win one to get to 9-7 in conference and if they do it should be enough to get them in especially considering their strength of schedule in the Big East. G'town and WVU both sit in about the same boat. G'town has a 3 game losing streak and a lousy RPI because of some bad losses out of conference. What they have going for them is a 4-5 mark against the top 8 in the Big East. They should be able to get to 9-7 since they have a home game against Providence left. After that they'll need to win at least a game in the conference tourney and hope there aren't to many upsets elsewhere. WVU has been on a roll lately winning 7 of 9, they have a decent RPI, and have some good wins out of conference. Their problem is they have played an easy Big East schedule and have only one big win (Pitt). They finish up at Seton Hall, and if they win that and one game in the Big East tourney they basically sit in the same boat as G'town, except with a stronger finish.

The ACC cleared up a little bit this week. Georgia Tech's win against Miami was huge for them and devastating for Miami. Virginia Tech and N.C. State have the best chances of getting the sixth bid out of the league but both have some work to do. Maryland needs a win at Virginia Tech this week to finish .500 in conference and feel safe about their chances. The ACC tourney should be interesting because if VT, N.C. St., or Miami can manage to win 2 games then they will have a good shot at a bid.

Iowa St. really took a huge step backwards this week. They need to win their last two conference games and get to 9-7 in conference or all of their bad losses will come back to haunt them. Texas A&M gave itself a big boost by beating Iowa St. The problem is they need to win at Oklahoma St. to have a chance at 9 conference wins. Right now Iowa St. is has a better chance at a bid because of their big wins. Houston got the last at-large bid. They have won six of seven including wins over TCU and Memphis and if they can win out (@Marquette, UAB) and get to 11-5 in conference they should get in. Indiana needs one more big win, which it can get at Wisconsin this week or in the Big 10 tourney, to get in the tourney since right now their record is a ugly 14-11. Vanderbilt is still getting some consideration and with a 2 win week could see its name in the bracket next week.

Small Conferences
The MAC is another big mess. We still think Miami-Ohio and Buffalo are the two best teams in the conference, but the conferences chances for two bids are fading with everyone beating everyone else up so much. Buffalo and Miami-Ohio (despite a solid RPI) both need to win out probably until the conference finals to have a chance at an at-large. Bottom line: There is still a ton of basketball yet to be played in the MAC.

We still like Creighton to win the MVC conference tourney. They have beaten Wichita St. twice and will do so again in the conference semis. For the second straight week we will probably be the only people without Wichita St. in and we are fine with that.

UTEP played itself into the bracket this week by winning three games. They need to still win out till the conference tourney final and at least have a strong showing against Nevada to get a bid. We no longer think St. Joe's has what it takes to win the A-10 conference tourney (see their loss at Rhode Island). GW needs to win out until the tourney championship game to hold on to an at-large. New Mexico has helped its at-large chances this week with its win over Utah, and if they can win out till the conference title game they hold on to slim hopes for an at-large bid.

Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), Big XII (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), C-USA (5), Big Ten (4), PAC-10 (4), MAC (2), MVC (2), WAC (2), WCC (2).

Last Four In

UTEP, Buffalo, Iowa State, Houston

Last Four Out
Wichita State, Indiana, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech

The Field Of 65

America East
Vermont

A-10
George Washington

ACC
North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic Sun

Central Florida

Big 12

Oklahoma St., Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State

Big East

Boston College, Connecticut, Syracuse, Villanova, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, West Virginia

Big Sky

Portland State

Big South

Winthrop

Big Ten

Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Big West

Pacific

Colonial

Old Dominion

C-USA
Louisville, Charlotte, Cincinnati, DePaul, Houston

Horizon
Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy
PENN

MAAC
Rider

MCC
Oral Roberts

MAC
Miami-Ohio, Buffalo

MEAC
Coppin St.

MVC
Southern Illinois, Creighton

MWC
Utah

Northeast
Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech

PAC-10
Arizona, Washington, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot
Holy Cross

SEC
Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State, LSU, Florida

Southern
Davidson

Southland
SE Louisiana

SWAC
Alabama A&M

Sun Belt
Denver

WCC
Gonzaga, St. Mary's

WAC
Nevada, UTEP

*Note - In the conferences where mulitple bids were given the first place team was given the automatic bid. In the case of a tie, overall record was the tiebreaker.

The Seeds

The 1s
Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Kansas

The 2s

Boston College, Duke, Kentucky, Washington

The 3s

Oklahoma State, Arizona, Gonzaga, Louisville

The 4s
Michigan State, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Syracuse

The 5s
Charlotte, Utah, Wisconsin, Alabama

The 6s
Cincinnati, Pacific, Villanova, Southern Illinois

The 7s
LSU, Nevada, Florida, Texas Tech

The 8s
Mississippi State, DePaul, UCLA, Texas

The 9s
Maryland, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh

The 10s
Holy Cross, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Stanford

The 11s
George Washington, Georgetown, West Virginia, Miami-Ohio

The 12s
UTEP, Buffalo, Vermont, Iowa State

The 13s
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Houston, Creighton, Old Dominion

The 14s
PENN, Davidson, Winthrop, Denver

The 15s
Oral Roberts, Rider, SE Louisiana, Central Florida

The 16s
Portland State, Tennessee Tech, Coppin St., Alabama A&M (Play-In Game), Fairleigh Dickinson (Play-In Game)

CAPS denotes automatic bid earned.

The Bracket

This Week's Bracket

Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

135 comments:

Anonymous said...

I live in Philly and went to SIU and just don't see Villanova and SIU both as 6 seeds (I know RPI and all the voodoo I'm just using common sense). I don't like VIllanova but I think they are better than SIU.......

Bracketology 101 said...

If Villanova and SIU played today on a neutral court, it would tough to bet against 'Nova. That said, the two teams profile-wise are very similar. SIU is one spot better in the RPI (12 vs. 13) and the Salukis just got ranked for the first time this week in the Coaches' poll. They may play in a much weaker conference, but you can't ignore a team (just like you can't ignore teams like Pacific, etc.) who is dominant in its conference and has an extremely good overall record. Common sense says take 'Nova, but common sense doesn't get teams seeded on Selection Sunday. RPIs and voodoo do. That's why they're both 6 seeds.

Anonymous said...

Hi, you don't really talk about Indiana but they have really shot on to the bubble in the last week or so. Lunardi has them as second to last team out and numerous analysts have said 2 more wins before selection sunday should wrap up a bid.....What do you guys think?

Bracketology 101 said...

Indiana is in a tough spot. Their early season struggles (thanks to a brutal schedule) put them in a huge hole, a hole that not even a huge win over Michigan State can get them out of.

Bottom line: The Hoosiers NEED to beat Wisconsin to get an at-large bid. Splitting their last two games won't be enough, no matter what they do in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana dosn't need wins at ths point, it needs marquis wins that will help them stand out from the other dozen or so teams on the bubble.

If Indiana loses at Wisconsin (likely), beats Northwestern (likely), and wins a game games in the Big Ten tournament (very possible), it won't be enough. Too many other crazy things are going happen in other conference tournaments, and too many surprise teams are going to get bids. Their season comes down to a win over the Badgers Tuesday night.

Anonymous said...

Why Holy Cross at 10? Others have them 12-14.

CGI said...

Holy Cross has won 14 in a row including a 15 point win over Bucknell last week, they were able to jump up to a 10 seed because many of the 11-13 seeds behind them have been slumping, while Holy Cross continues to rise

Anonymous said...

Pitt as a 9 seed? are you serious?? find a team with as many quality wins outside of the tops seeds

Bracketology 101 said...

Before Monday night, Pitt should have been very happy with a 9 seed. The Panthers have three - just three - top 50 RPI wins, they lost to St. John's and Bucknell, and they had lost three straight games when this week's picks were made. That streak had them behind Notre Dame resume-wise (the Irish have three top 50 wins and had a better RPI than Pitt) and in danger of ending up on the outside of the bracket looking in. Even West Virginia (an 11 seed) has three top 50 RPI wins as well, and they just BEAT Pitt. If Pitt hadn't beaten BC, they would have lost 4 straight, and been headed to ND to try to save their season.

With a decent showing in the Big East tournament, Pitt might in the end get to a 6 or 7 seed. On Sunday night, though, they were a 9 seed - and falling fast.

Anonymous said...

I have a question that bothers me about the RPI. Pitt plays a lot of guarantee games in the beginning of the year because, like some other schools, they need the money from home games. My problem with the RPI is that Pitt often gets low teams to come in that are around 300 rpi. This is because these teams are cheaper to "hire". They could play a 200 rpi team , but it would cost more. In my opinion, both a 300 or 200 rpi team is still a guaranteed win and Pitt should win every game. They only play the lower schools to save money. The problem is this lower rating kills Pitt in the RPI. They are getting punished for trying to save money, which is noble in this era of over-spending. A team like Duke plays about as many guarantee-games, but instead doesnt play 300 level teams, just in the 150-200 range. These games are just as much of a guaranteed win as Pitts, but their rpi isnt killed cause they can pay for the higher rated teams. Therefore their RPI is leaps and bounds better for little reason. Overall, do you think there should be some kind of cutoff past the 200-mark for RPI games that you win? This would seem more fair to me as anything around the 150+ mark should be a guaranteed win, and is only on the schedule for money reasons.

CGI said...

There shouldn't be any kind of cutoff for the amount of wins that are counted against high RPI teams. A D-1 win is a win no matter how bad the team. And in the case of Pitt this year before the season started I would have said that there out of conference schedule was not that bad. They played Memphis, Richmond, South Carolina, and Penn St. who all come from decent conferences. It's just turned out to be bad because none of these 4 teams appears to be tournament bound at this point. But you can't put a max on the amount of wins a team can have outside the top 200. You can't predict what a teams RPI will be.

Anonymous said...

Why no love for the Panther of the The University of Northern Iowa. Double OT loss on the road at Cincinnati, three point loss to Iowa on road when Iowa was good, 21 victories, RPI anywhere from 35-45 depending on where you look...

CGI said...

First of all I don't care about who they lost to. But they did beat Iowa St. and Southern Illinois and their RPI is up to 34. Right now they are one of the last four out. NIU gets hurt by the fact that they are a #4 seed in the MVC conference tourney. They have to play a tough SMS team first round and then get Southern Illinois in the semifinals. If they get by Southern Ill. then they still probably need to win the championship game to get a bid. Southern Ill. is a lock for a bid and although its not impossible to see 3 bids coming out of the MVC they certainly don't want to pin their hopes on it. If NIU had been the #3 seed then a loss to SIU in the championship might have been enough to get them in because they would have likely beaten Wichita St. on they way there. We also like Creighton right now to come out and win the conference tourney. They are playing well right now and have beaten Wichita and NIU twice. So right now its tough to see a situation where NIU gets a bid without the automatic unless there are not many upsets in conference tourney's.

CGI said...

By the way for those who are not aware CGI posts are made by Craig, while bracketology 101 posts are made by Chris.

Anonymous said...

Kudos to your Creighton pick a couple of weeks ago and calling out Wichita as a fraud. You were the first to tout them as a threat to win the MVC and they're a step away now. Does the MVC #1 seed EVER win the tourney?

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