The Breakdown
Quite a few changes from last week's picks. With less then 3 weeks left until conference tourney time we really looked ahead at the remaining schedules for each bubble team. However the seeding is always done based upon what each teams has done so far. Bracket Buster Saturday will be huge.
Big Conferences....Iowa St. has come out of no where to win 5 straight including games over Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. With their remaining schedule they should finish at least 9-7 in conference if not 10-6. Their RPI is still weak but that should continue to improve with each win. Stanford really benefited from ASU's collapse this week and even though they lost their leading scorer they should be able to get to 10-8 in conference which would give them a bid. Minnesota nearly played themselves out of the tourney this week losing two winnable games but they hung on because of their medicore remaining schedule. LSU and Arkansas both need to get some more marquee wins and are hurt by the weakness of the SEC this year. It will be tough for Arkansas to get over .500 in conference and the way LSU is playing right now doesn't bode well given their remaining schedule. With Iowa already being 4-6 in conference it is going to be very tough for them to finish any better then 7-9 in conference with what they have left.
Small Conferences....UTEP is barely hanging on but their remaining conference games are all winnable and they have a chance to prove themselves worthy at Pacific on Saturday. Seeing St. Joe's and BU in the bracket this week might be surprising to many of you. But we are standing by our words from last week when we said more small conference teams will be given bids to make the bracket more realistic, so both teams are in as automatic bids this week. BU proved they can beat Vermont this week and even if they don't beat them in the conference championship if things break their way they have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid as long as they win out. St. Joes has no chance at an at-large bid but with GW looking more like an at-large lock its more likely to see another team come out of the A-10. St. Joes is looking like the team that has the best shot to knock GW off in the conference tourney. If Xavier gets hot watch for them since they A-10 conference tourney is in Cinci. In the coming weeks the MAC may be able to secure another spot in our bracket. We expect another team from the MAC East to step up in the remaining weeks to join Miami-Ohio as a second bid out of a relatively strong conference.
Conference Breakdown
Big East (7), ACC (6), Big XII (6), C-USA (5), Big Ten (4), SEC (4), PAC-10 (4), A-10 (2), America East (2), MVC (2), WAC (2), WCC (2).
Last Four In
UTEP, Minnesota, Iowa State, Stanford
Last Four Out
LSU, Arkansas, Iowa, TCU
The Field Of 65
America East
Vermont, Boston University
A-10
George Washington, St. Joseph's
ACC
North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Miami-Fla.
Atlantic Sun
Gardner-Webb
Big 12
Oklahoma St., Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
Big East
Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown
Big Sky
Portland State
Big South
Winthrop
Big Ten
Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Big West
Pacific
Colonial
Old Dominion
C-USA
Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul, Charlotte, UAB
Horizon
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Ivy
Penn
MAAC
Niagara
MCC
Oral Roberts
MAC
Miami-Ohio
MEAC
Coppin St.
MVC
Southern Illinois, Wichita State
MWC
Utah
Northeast
Monmouth
Ohio Valley
Samford
PAC-10
Arizona, Washington, UCLA, Stanford
Patriot
Holy Cross
SEC
Kentucky, Alabama, Miss. St., Florida
Southern
Davidson
Southland
SE Louisiana
SWAC
Alabama A&M
Sun Belt
Western Kentucky
WCC
Gonzaga, St. Mary's
WAC
Nevada, UTEP
*Note - In the conferences where mulitple bids were given the first place team was given the automatic bid. In the case of a tie, overall record was the tiebreaker.
The Seeds
The 1s
Illinois, Kansas, Wake Forest, North Carolina
The 2s
Oklahoma State, Kentucky, Duke, Boston College
The 3s
Syracuse, Arizona, Washington, Gonzaga
The 4s
Michigan State, Alabama, Utah, Wisconsin
The 5s
Connecticut, Louisville, Maryland, Pittsburgh
The 6s
Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, DePaul
The 7s
Florida, Pacific, Charlotte, Georgetown
The 8s
Texas Tech, Southern Illinois, Villanova, Nevada
The 9s
Texas, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Wichita State
The 10s
George Washington, Vermont, UCLA, St. Mary's
The 11s
Miami-Fla, UAB, Minnesota, Stanford
The 12s
Miami-Ohio, Old Dominion, UTEP, Iowa State
The 13s
The 14s
Niagara, Penn,
The 15s
The 16s
Gardner-Webb,
The Bracket
Bracket graphic courtesy Matt Reeves.
4 comments:
Nice work here... I was wondering if you could shed some light on which seeds each site will be receiving? I am blindly headed to Cleveland for rounds 1+2, and wondering if I can get an idea for who will be there. Are the seeds set in stone (ie. 3, 4, 5,6 will definitely be there).... Or is that part random as well? espn.com has the 3/6 seeds from Albuquerque and the 4/5 from Chicago... But, I noticed your's is different. Any idea?
The seeds aren't set in stone for any of the locations for the first weekend . The handbook the selection committee uses says that they first place the top 16 teams (1-4 seeds) into regions. After this, these 16 teams are assigned to the eight first/second round sites, trying to keep each one close to home as possible, giving the higher ranked team priority. The pod associated with that seed gets assigned to that city (1,8,9,16 2,7,10,15 3,6,11,14 and 4,5,12,13). You'll notice on ESPN and on mine that Illinois gets Indy, Kansas gets OK City, the top two in the ACC get Charlotte, etc. In most of the bracket projections I've done this year, as well as ESPN's, Cleveland is assigned later, to the 3 or 4 seeds including some teams that get "stuck" because the other sites are used by the higher seeds. So don't expect to see Illinois or some of the ACC's finest in Cleveland. The committee also tries to keep the other seeds close to home, but it's a little tougher due to the rules regarding spreading the conferences out among the bracket. The only thing I can tell you is to keep your eye on our projections and that should give you some idea of who will be there.
That is great info... thanks very much.
Keep up the great work. I check every Monday!
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