Sunday, March 12, 2006

Bracketology 101's Final Field of 65

Final Bracket Reasoning....
-Seton Hall's big road wins put them over the top for a bid.
-Michigan gets left out because of their bad finish. A major reason for their poor finish was injuries but even with Abram back against Minnesota they still lost.
-Hofstra gets the nod over George Mason because of their two late season wins against them and because of Skinn's suspension. It was also tough to put Mason in ahead of Creighton since they lost at home to them by 20.
-Creighton's losing 4 out of their last 6 kept them out of the field.

Here is Chris and Craig's final Field of 65:

Last Four In
Texas A&M, Missouri State, Seton Hall, Hofstra

Last Four Out
Michigan, George Mason, Creighton, Florida State

Conference Breakdown
Big East (9), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), MVC (5), ACC (4), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (4), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), A-10 (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, George Washington

Big East - UConn, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin

Big 12 - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - NC-Wilmington, Hofstra

C-USA - Memphis, UAB

Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Iona

MAC - Kent State

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Hampton

MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State

Northeast - Monmouth

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Northwestern State

SWAC - Southern

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds

The 1s
Duke, UConn, Villanova, Memphis

The 2s
Ohio State, Texas, UCLA, Illinois

The 3s
Iowa, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, North Carolina

The 4s
Boston College, LSU, Florida, Kansas

The 5s
Syracuse, Michigan State, Tennessee, West Virginia

The 6s
George Washington, Washington, Georgetown, Nevada

The 7s
Oklahoma, Indiana, Marquette, Arkansas

The 8s
Wisconsin, Wichita State, Kentucky, Southern Illinois

The 9s
Bucknell, UAB, Arizona, California

The 10s
Northern Iowa, Bradley, North Carolina State, Cincinnati

The 11s
NC-Wilmington, San Diego State, Alabama, Texas A&M

The 12s
Missouri State, Seton Hall, Hofstra, Kent State

The 13s
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, South Alabama, Xavier, Iona

The 14s
Winthrop, Murray State, Northwestern State, Montana

The 15s
Pacific, Penn, Davidson, Albany

The 16s
Oral Roberts, Belmont, Southern, Monmouth (Play-In Game), Hampton (Play-In Game)

The Bracket

Bracketology 101's Final Field of 65

Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree 100% with your field.

Anonymous said...

you are wrong. FSU is in...100%

Anonymous said...

FSU has no chance of getting in

Anonymous said...

I like your field..but I have an eerie feeling that the selection committee will deliver one or two surprises. The mid-major effect with good RPI's or the Big East-effect with difficult scheduling.

Anonymous said...

Can someone give me a definitive answer on this? Clearly the odds of picking a perfect bracket are mathematically miniscule [See http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050316/news_1s16canepa.html]. However every explanation I've seen is based on if the games were tossups [http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56223.html] to demonstrate that the odds are next to nothing.

But a 1 seed has never lost to a 16. A 15 seed has only beaten a 2 seed a few times (1991, 1993, 1997, 2001).

What I would like to see is someone demonstrate the odds based on percentages (100% chance of 1 beating 16, maybe 98% chance of a 2 beating a 15, etc....all the way down to say a 53% chance an 8 beats a 9)?

Can anyone calculate fairer odds (or point me to a website where someone else has done that)?

I recognize that a perfect bracket is next to impossible, but I have a hard time believe someone sometime within our lifetimes isn't going to nail it.

andrew said...

There is only 1 thing I disagree with. I have George Mason in & Hofstra out.

Anonymous said...

well, jay bilas will cry like a baby is George Mason gets in over Michigan