Monday, March 06, 2006

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 7

Here is Chris and Craig's latest field:

Last Four In
Florida State, California, Missouri State, George Mason

Last Four Out
Hofstra, Air Force, Creighton, Colorado

In This Bracket
UNC-Wilmington

Out This Bracket
Hofstra

Conference Breakdown
(Automatic bids in multiple bid conferences are the first teams listed. Teams who have already earned a bid are in bold.)
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), SEC (6), ACC (5), MVC (5), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (4), C-USA (2), Colonial (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State, Florida State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - George Washington

Big East - UConn, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Cincinnati

Big Sky - Northern Arizona

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan

Big 12 - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - UNC-Wilmington, George Mason

C-USA - Memphis, UAB

Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Iona

MAC - Kent State

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State

Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Northwestern State

SWAC - Southern

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WAC - Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds
The 1s
UConn, Villanova, Duke, Memphis

The 2s
Ohio State, Texas, Illinois, Gonzaga

The 3s
North Carolina, LSU, George Washington, UCLA

The 4s
Iowa, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington

The 5s
Pittsburgh, Boston College, Kansas, Florida

The 6s
Oklahoma, Michigan State, Nevada, Marquette

The 7s
Georgetown, Wisconsin, Arkansas, North Carolina State

The 8s
Indiana, Wichita State, Bucknell, Alabama

The 9s
Kentucky, Seton Hall, Southern Illinois, Michigan

The 10s
Arizona, Cincinnati, UAB, Northern Iowa

The 11s
Bradley, UNC-Wilmington, Texas A&M, California

The 12s
Florida State, Missouri State, George Mason, San Diego State

The 13s
Western Kentucky, Kent State, Iona, Wisconsin-Milwaukee

The 14s
Winthrop, Pacific, Murray State, Northwestern State

The 15s
Northern Arizona, Penn, Albany, Davidson

The 16s
Oral Roberts, Delaware State, Belmont, Fairleigh Dickinson (Play-In Game), Southern (Play-In Game)

The Bracket

Bracket - March 6th

Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gee guys, why not post it a little later so NO one will see it until tomorrow !

Bracketology 101 said...

With Wilmington winning the CAA, we had to make changes from our Sunday night (March 5) bracket. We also had to wait until the conclusion of the Gonzaga-LMU game to post Monday's final bracket. Rather than put it out Tuesday morning, we put it out ahead of time.

We will have another update late Tuesday night and every day the rest of the week.

James said...

Why does everybody have Alabama so high? I understand they had an injury and I agree that they maybe should get an at large.

But an 8 or 9 seed is too high for a team that has no good out of conference wins. They lost every big out of conference game (Memphis at home, Temple, Oklahoma, Notre Dame at home, NC State at home).

Looks to me like an 11 seed at best.

Bracketology 101 said...

Alabama is an 8-9 team in most brackets for the same reasons a lot of other teams are on that seed line - good conference wins, and a mediocre to bad OOC resume. The Tide have three top 50 wins, and three top 25 wins, albeit all vs. SEC opponents. They are our last eight seed right now (slightly ahead of Kentucky, who Bama beat in their only meeting this season). The bad number for Bama is their number of losses. They'll finish the year with 12 losses, and depending on how early that 12th loss comes, they will fall somewhere in the 7-10 range. The 7-10 seeds are all tough calls at this point because they are so similiar in many ways, but there's still of lot of basketball to be played.

James G said...

Do you really think Mason is ahead of Hofstra after Hofstra just beat Mson twice? It strikes me sort of like DePaul/UAB last year, where DePaul apparently had a better resume, but where UAB just beat DePaul twice going toward the tournament and you just couldn't put DePaul in front of UAB.

Anonymous said...

I now understand your methodology.

Beat George Mason by double digits on the road or a neutral court, and play yourselves out of the tourney.

Anonymous said...

how about if you are in the caa and no you have to win one game to get it, don't get blown out in the first half. suck it hofstra.

Anonymous said...

Missouri State is garbage. no quality out of conference wins. only 2-5 vs the best teams in conference. lost int he first round of the conference tournament. fraudulent RPI. garbage team. Give em any of the last four out or MD Cincy Syracuse, etc. All of those teams would beat Missouri State by 20+ in the first round...

Anonymous said...

If MD beats Geogia Tech and Boston College in the ACC Tourney, that would get them to 20 wins with the 10th hardest sos and would have won 4 out of their last 5, 1 on the road, and 2 on a neutral court.......would you put them in if they can accomplish that??

Anonymous said...

Maryland is an NIT team. Clemson & FSU both crushed the Terps.

Anonymous said...

and both were on the road, clemson has an 18-11 record, and fsu is a tourney team who outplayed duke twice....if clemson could have made a free throw they would have beat duke at home as well, so you have to come up with more than that to have a valid argument

WUFerret said...

Curious about Winthrop's chances of getting a 13-seed, or the unlikely 12-seed.

Also how do Iona and Winthrop match-up in terms of the better seed?

Bracketology 101 said...

Hofstra's two wins over Mason in that 10-day stretch is hard to ignore, but in looking at the entire profile of both teams, Mason is ahead by the slimmest or margains and that is why they are in the field and Hofstra is out. Mason has the big non-conference win that Hofstra doesn't (Wichita), which we think is especially huge given the committee's lack of respect for the CAA in recent years. Ultimately, we have Mason with no Hofstra becasue we think the Colonial right now is a two-bd league, not a three-bid league. It's an indictment of the league, not Hofstra.

That said, if some teams currently in the bracket play their way out (FSU, A&M, Colorado, etc.), Hofstra can play their way back in. If too many upsets happen (Bucknell, Nevada, GW, etc. lose) the Colonial based on history looks like the league that will be hurt the most. In the end, with enough upsets, Wilmington may be the only CAA team dancing.

Bracketology 101 said...

Two wins for Maryland would put them back in the mix for a bid but it wouldn't lock one up.

Winthrop definetly has a chance at getting a 13 seed. Right now we have them as the top 14 so they are right there. We'll take a look at seeds 13-16 later in the week after more of the conference tourneys are over and we may make a few changes.

Hofstra can still get in the tournament and we may still switch them out with George Mason (after further evaluation of the Skinn suspension). Right now Mason's win over Wichita and the fact that they finished in first place during the regular season gives them the slight edge. We agree that the fact that Hofstra beat them twice in the past 2 weeks is very tough to overlook (and we wouldn't if we were making the bracket), but we can see the committee doing it. There is a good chance that both do make it, and also the chance that both get left out as the week plays out.

As for Missouri State we waiver back and forth on them daily, but their 21 RPI always stays in our minds and makes it very hard to think that the committee would snub them.

Bryan said...

Does FSU have to win their first round game in the ACC tourney vs. Wake Forest to remain in the bracket, or are they ok where they are? Is it possible they could move up in the seeding with a few tourney wins?

Bracketology 101 said...

FSU needs to beat Wake to stay in the bracket. With a couple wins, the Seminoles could move up a seed line or two (they are our top 12 seed Tuesday), but barring a huge run, they likely won't get higher than a 10.

Anonymous said...

I like how Florida and George Mason did end up playing, just in the Final Four.