Saturday, March 11, 2006

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 11

Bubble Breakdown
Here is how we see it. There are 4 spots up for grabs still. We think Texas A&M, Bradley, Cal, NC State, and Alabama are all safe. The teams we have in that we would not be shocked if they are left out are Cincinnati, Missouri State, Seton Hall and George Mason. The only teams they can be replaced by in our mind is Michigan, Hofstra, and Creighton (or South Carolina, Utah State, Nebraska, or Wake Forest if they win their conference tourneys). San Diego State is a major wild card right now. They have a chance at an at-large should they lose tonight and it would be a very tough call. We think Missouri State and Cincinnati are relatively safe right now and it is highly unlikely that we would take them out of the bracket. After that you have Seton Hall and George Mason. It's not too hard to make a case for Michigan or Hofstra to be in the bracket over them. Michigan has had a lot of injuries down the stretch which has been a major impact on their bad finish. George Mason's situation with Skinn being suspended for a game is a major factor as well. So as we evaluate things further there is a possibility we would take out Seton Hall or George Mason for Michigan or Hofstra and possibly Creighton by the time our final bracket comes out tomorrow afternoon. Let the debate continue...

Here is Chris and Craig's latest field:

Last Four In
Cincinnati, Missouri State, Seton Hall, George Mason

Last Four Out
Michigan, Hofstra, Creighton, Florida State

In This Bracket
none

Out This Bracket
none

Conference Breakdown
(Automatic bids in multiple bid conferences are the first teams listed. Teams who have already earned a bid are in bold.)
Big East (9), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), MVC (5), ACC (4), Pac-10 (4), Big 12 (4), C-USA (2), Colonial (2), A-10 (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, North Carolina State

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, George Washington

Big East - Pittsburgh, Villanova, UConn, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Seton Hall

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana

Big 12 - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West - Pacific

Colonial - NC-Wilmington, George Mason

C-USA - Memphis, UAB

Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Iona

MAC - Kent State

MCC - Oral Roberts

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State

Northeast - Monmouth

Ohio Valley - Murray State

Pac-10 - UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Northwestern State

SWAC - Southern

Sun Belt - South Alabama

WAC - Nevada

WCC - Gonzaga

The Seeds

The 1s
Villanova, UConn, Duke, Memphis

The 2s
Ohio State, Texas, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

The 3s
LSU, Illinois, UCLA, Gonzaga

The 4s
Iowa, Boston College, Kansas, Florida

The 5s
Michigan State, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia

The 6s
Georgetown, Nevada, George Washington, Oklahoma

The 7s
Marquette, Indiana, Wisconsin, Arkansas

The 8s
Syracuse, Wichita State, Bucknell, Southern Illinois

The 9s
Kentucky, UAB, Arizona, California

The 10s
Northern Iowa, NC-Wilmington, Bradley, North Carolina State

The 11s
Alabama, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, San Diego State

The 12s
Missouri State, Seton Hall, George Mason, Kent State

The 13s
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, South Alabama, Iona, Xavier

The 14s
Winthrop, Pacific, Murray State, Montana

The 15s
Northwestern State, Albany, Davidson, Penn

The 16s
Oral Roberts, Delaware State, Belmont, Monmouth (Play-In Game), Southern (Play-In Game)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

27 comments:

pokerplayr said...

florida seeded one line higher than tennessee despite tennessee having a higher RPI, a stronger SOS, winning the SEC east by three games over the gators and sweeping florida during the regular season ??

duke referees said...

Jay Bilas will throw a hissy fit if Michigan doesn't make the tourney. He fails to realize that the Wolverines were terrible down the stretch losing 7 of 9. Getting blown out at Purdue looks horrid on that resume.

Bracketology 101 said...

Bilas should really mention Michigan's injury issues down that stretch as an excuse for that poor run.

Anonymous said...

CAA should have one more as a near-lock but not two, right?

With the high RPIs of Mason and Hofstra, I would imagine that the CAA getting one more bid is a near-certainty, right? However, three bids for the CAA seems really tough to fathom. How difficult do you think it is to justify Mason over Hofstra, considering the latter has beaten Mason twice in a row. Plus, one of Mason's top players is out for a game (playing by odds, their only game of the tourney).

Anonymous said...

Why isn't the fact that Seton Hall beat Cincy in the last week of the season relevant?

Bracketology 101 said...

Tough call between Mason and Hofstra. Hofstra did beat them twice which is huge, but Mason does have the win at Wichita, better computer numbers, and the fact that the finished tied for first during the regular season in conference on their side. The Skinn suspension is the wild card. It wouldn't be too shocking if the CAA got three bids so it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Seton Hall's win over Cinci is keeping them in the conversation right now. But their losses surronding that game (ND, Depaul, St. Johns, and Rutgers) are what is hard to get past. You can make a case for them over Cinci though based on the fact that the finished a game better in the Big East and beat them head to head.

Anonymous said...

If BC beats Duke tommorrow are you looking at them in the number 2 with Duke number 2 and Ohio Sate (if they win) number 1.

The real debate is where BC would of finished in the Big East.

Where do I apply for Jay Bilas' job?

Bracketology 101 said...

Duke is a 1 seed. The Ohio State game may be to late in the day to affect Ohio State's seeding.

Anonymous said...

I think Mason is probably in. Their AD is on the selection committee. Not that I think there are backroom deals so much, but how would you like tell him when he's on the committe that he has the best RPI team ever left out?

Bryan said...

Die hard FSU fan here.. very upset with the way their season ended.. any chance at all of them sneaking in to the tourney? Do their "quality losses" to Duke, NC, and BC count for anything? I know their OOC schedule sucked, though.

Bracketology 101 said...

Bryan,

You kind of answered your own question about the 'Noles. When you're banking on "quality losses" rather than "quality wins" getting you a bid, you don't deserve one. If FSU has beaten Wake, their situation would be totally different. That loss, coupled with their atrocious OOC schedule - knocked them out.

Anonymous said...

Does UCLA have a shot at a 2 seed now that Pitt & North Carolina lost today?

Anonymous said...

Do you think that there is any chance that Georgetown slips below a 6? Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Do you think there is any chance that Georgetown slips below a 6. Thanks a lot.

Bracketology 101 said...

UCLA, with their win today, is a 2. Georgetown looks very safe for a 6.

Anonymous said...

Looking at Hofstra I'm having a hard time placing them in over Michigan or FSU for that matter.

Anonymous said...

I still don't see how you guys think that BAMA is safe. Even ESPN has BAMA in their bottom four.

Mark it down, if South Carolina wins tomorrow kiss BAMA good bye. There out of conference record is horrible.

Bracketology 101 said...

Hofstra's biggest problem right may not be their profile vs. teams like Michigan and FSU, it's that their shot at a bid seems very tied to George Mason. Their profiles as a whole are so similar that it's really diffcult to say that one really deserves a bid over the other, and there may not be room for both. We have been giving Mason a slight edge for a while, but with the upsets that have already happened, the potential of South Carolina winning the SEC, and the uncertainty as to how the committee will weigh the Skinn suspension, they are very shaky right now. Hofstra and Mason will be two of the toughest calls we'll have to make tomorrow afternoon.

patrick said...

im a huge bradley fan. i live in peoria. i also like the other teams in the valley. how far do you think bradley, witchita state, northern Iowa, southern illinois, and missouri state will go, assuming all of them get in

Anonymous said...

Should the ACC just stop playing the ACC/Big Ten Challenge???...I mean it means nothing, they win every year pretty handidly, Big Ten has never beaten them, yet somehow they consistantly get more bids than the ACC....i know "conference" don't get bids, but i think that conference has to mean something, and you talk about how quality losses don't mean anything, but that is unfair, they will most likely have three top 10 teams in the final poll so if you can still manage to finish 9-7 in that conference that should mean a lot, we talk about how fsu didn't beat anyone ooc, i think scheduling is a lot more complicated issue than you all think it is, you make it sound like you can play anyone at any time....what powerhouse team would want that game??...its just like a mid major almost, fsu hasn't made the tourney in years, so teams making their schedule won't want to play them because it would hurt them more by losing then it would help them more by winning.....how is alabama so safe...they're record is nothing great, they beat nobody ooc, they played good teams, but you say there's no such thing as a "quality loss" and all they have to brag about is beating tennesee and florida at home, other than that, they have no big road wins except against kentucky when they were really struggling, but it turns out to be a fluke when they lose to kentucky on friday.....i really hope the selection commitee doesn't pay attention to these "fake" brackets, because that would be sad....

Anonymous said...

FSU is in. Watch. They're in.

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