Sunday, January 29, 2006

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 29

Bracket Explanation
With it being the start of February and with most schools about half way done with their conference schedules we started to look ahead at schools upcoming schedules and at how they have performed lately. With that being said...

Cal got a bid this week because of the win they picked up over Washington and because of their remaining schedule. They have 9 games left in conference and 5 of them are at home. Out of their 4 road games remaining the toughest one is at Washington. Their RPI is still weak but it will continue to climb. They currently sit at 6-3 in conference and have a great shot to get to at least 11-7.

Iowa State was our last team in. They have really struggled lately, especially at home, and will need to start winning again if they want to stay in. Their early season wins over UNI and Iowa won't be enough to keep them in if can't pick up some W's, but they do still have a good shot at getting to 9-7 in conference which should be enough.

We gave San Diego State the automatic bid out of the MWC because of how well they have been playing lately, and we think they have what it takes to win the conference tourney. Air Force picked up a big win this week at UNLV to take sole position of second place and if they can stay there and get to 12 wins in conference then they have a good chance of picking up an at-large bid.

Cincinnati was left out because they have lost 5 of 6 and have not been the same since Kirkland went down(they weren't even competitive in their two losses this week). They have a brutal Big East schedule left and it will be nearly impossible for them to get to 8-8 in conference with their lack of size and depth.

We still don't think the Colonial conference will be able to get two bids, so we left ODU out this week and gave George Mason the automatic bid. The top of that conference is just going to beat up on each other too much down the stretch and no one has an strong enough out of conference resume to warrant an at-large bid.

Here is our latest field:

Last Four In
Air Force, Vanderbilt, California, Iowa State

Last Four Out
Old Dominion, Cincinnati, Alabama, Nevada

Conference Breakdown
(Automatic bids in multiple-bid conferences in CAPS, unless otherwise noted)
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), SEC (5), ACC (5), Big 12 (5), MVC (4), PAC-10 (4), C-USA (2), A-10 (2), MWC (2)

America East - Albany

ACC - DUKE, North Carolina State, Boston College, Maryland, North Carolina

Atlantic Sun - Lipscomb

A-10 - GEORGE WASHINGTON, Xavier

Big East - UCONN, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall, Syracuse

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Winthrop

Big Ten - ILLINOIS, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana

Big 12 - TEXAS, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa State

Big West - UC-Irvine

Colonial - George Mason

C-USA - MEMPHIS (automatic), UAB

Horizon - Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Ivy - Penn

Metro Atlantic - Iona

MAC - Akron

MCC - IUPUI

MEAC - Delaware State

MVC - NORTHERN IOWA, Creighton, Southern Illinois, Wichita State

MWC - SAN DIEGO STATE, Air Force

Northeast - Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley - Murray State

PAC-10 - UCLA, Washington, Arizona, California

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - TENNESSEE (Automatic), Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Northwestern State

SWAC - Southern

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WCC - Gonzaga

WAC - Utah State

The Seeds

The 1s
UConn, Duke, Memphis, Villanova

The 2s
Texas, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Gonzaga

The 3s
Michigan State, Tennessee, Florida, George Washington

The 4s
Iowa, West Virginia, UCLA, Northern Iowa

The 5s
Michigan, LSU, Ohio State, North Carolina State

The 6s
Georgetown, Wisconsin, Boston College, Oklahoma

The 7s
Indiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Washington

The 8s
Bucknell, UAB, Marquette, Arizona

The 9s
Creighton, Colorado, Kentucky, Xavier

The 10s
Kansas, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, Seton Hall

The 11s
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Syracuse, Air Force, Vanderbilt

The 12s
California, Iowa State, George Mason, Iona

The 13s
San Diego State, Utah State, Akron, Western Kentucky

The 14s
Winthrop, Davidson, Montana, Northwestern State

The 15s
Penn, Albany, Murray State, UC-Irvine

The 16s
IUPUI, Delaware State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Lipscomb (Play-In Game), Southern (Play-In Game)

The Bracket

This Week's Bracket

Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves.

Questions? Comments? E-mail Chris and Craig at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

great job on this weeks bracket guys. its nice to see Seton Hall rewarded for getting tough road wins. how much chance do teams like Clemson, USC, and Stanford have of making the field in March? thanks for the great site you provide.

Anonymous said...

As of right now, I don't think Wisconsin is deserving of a tourney bid, they only have one decent win on their schedule and that is a home win against Michigan State, other than that, they lost to the worst team in the ACC (Wake Forest), they lost at home to one of the worst teams in the nation (South Dakota State) and they aren't doing that well in a conference that is completely overated in the Big Ten....a team like Miami or Florida State should easily get in over this overated Badgers team...I mean come on, these 7 teams in the Big Ten should not be rewarded for playing teams like Purdue, Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota, the bottom half of the Big Ten is awful, the bottom half of the ACC is so much better hence why they beat the Big Ten head to head without its 4th best team in Boston College....so stop riding the Big Ten, take Wisconsin out of there

Anonymous said...

Honestly, I don't think that Syracuse is a team that deserves a bid, and maybe not even Marquette or Seton Hall....I understand the Big East is pretty tough this year, but its not good enough to get 8 or 9 teams in the tournament....I mean let's be realistic about this. As much as Boeheim wants to cry about his schedule, they aren't that good, nor have they beaten anybody that is good.....their best win is against Cincinatti who has like 8 people on their active roster, but they lose every big game, including a loss to a mediocre Manhattan team.....we just can't give them an invite based on reputation, and the fact they have a tough schedule, big freakin' deal.......win some games, then you can complain, but if you can't win any of the big games in conference, you don't deserve a bid, and as for Marquette and Seton Hall, each team has just one good win on its schedule, Marquette beat Connecticut at home which was one of those games where they shot incredible and UConn had a bad game, and the same with Seton Hall when they beat N.C. State, and their win against Syracuse was not big because they aren't good....do you not see the losses to Richmond and Northwestern, I mean come on....you can't tell me these teams honestly deserve a bid as of right now

Anonymous said...

I would agree with the last poster about Syracuse. I really don't think if the season ended today, they'd be worthy of a bid. However, they will have plenty of chances to earn one over the next couple of weeks.

As for MU and SHU, they have a couple bad losses, but the good wins cancel out the bad losses. You cannot in any way deride wins over UCONN and at NCSTATE. As for SHU's win over 'Cuse, as I stated above, IMO Cuse is just off the bubble, but the Carrier Dome is one of the toughest places for an opponent to play in the country.

With regards to the ACC Fan up above:

Wisconsin has a top 10 RPI, Miami's is 74th. And FSU? Are you kidding? 0 quality wins. They aren't within 20 teams of the tournament.

GD said...

didn't miami lose at in miami to a bad big east team? (louisville) not to mention air force and temple. they DID beat stetson, morgan st. and always tough birmingham southern (best nonconference win, RPI-wise).

Anonymous said...

I agree, Miami was awful in the beginning, but they have played like a tournament team since the bulk of the ACC schedule started.....and if not Miami or FSU who did play very tough at Florida and lost some heartbreakers in the ACC.....we gotta take a 6th team in the ACC before we take 8 or 9 from the Big East, or take 7 from the Big Ten...it just doesn't make much sense how the ACC consistantly dominates the Big Ten head to head, including this year in which the ACC lost a ton of talent, yet more times than not the Big Ten gets so much more respect from the voters for the polls and the tournament committee...as far as the AP Poll...what a freakin' joke, how does MD fall 8 spots after losing a tough road game to Temple...yeah, Temple is not what they used to be, but they still have Mardy Collins, who is nasty, and they have a future hall of fame coach, so they're a well coached team.....MD didn't play bad, it wasn't like they were blown out, they just ran into a team that played lights out, its gonna happen in college bball on the road, and MD played an amazing game on the road earlier in the week, their first w/out their leading scorer, so for these clowns in the AP to drop them completely out is an absolute joke.....plus, BC whom they beat head to head and have almost an identical record, is ranked 15...9 spots higher than MD, tell me how that makes any sense in the world

Anonymous said...

Wisconsin also beat a very good Iowa team. That previous poster has no clue. South Dakota State never played Wisonsin this year. What are you talking about. Florida State is 96th in the RPI. They have 0 wins against the top 50. By contrast, Wisconsin has 6 wins over the top 50. 3 of which are against the top 25. F$U has 0!

Anonymous said...

whatever, they lost to North Dakota St, same thing...south, north, who cares, either way it is awful....yeah they beat Iowa at home, big whoops, Iowa isn't even ranked in the ESPN Poll, and they beat MSU, who is also overated, people forget they have 5 losses, yet they hardly ever drop in the polls.....I don't know what you're talking about with 3 wins against ranked teams, try 1....maybe it was a stretch saying Miami or FSU, but you get my point, you gotta cut one of these 7 big ten teams and Wisconsin is the least proven, they did lose the Big Ten/ACC Challenge to a team that is ranked last in the ACC

Anonymous said...

why all the hatred towards the Big 10? Jealous that they will get 7 bids? Illinois had nice out of conference wins over UNC, Wichita St., Georgetown, & Xavier. Michigan State beat Arizona, Wichita St. & BC. Indiana hammered Kentucky. Iowa beat Kentucky & NC State. Ohio State beat LSU, Iowa State, St. Josephs. Michigan beat Miami & Notre Dame from the "great" ACC & Big East. Minnesota beat UAB. Northwestern won at Seton hall.

Anonymous said...

have you ever heard of the RPI? Wisconsin has 6 wins over the top 50. F$U has 0! who cares about those stupid polls? They had a horrible Louisville team ranked last week. the RPI is much more important than the those biased polls

Anonymous said...

Iowa is ranked 7th in the new RPI rankings

Anonymous said...

Nice bracket, but if you are going to go for Cal or any other team, what about a fifth from the MVC? I don't think it is likely, but if you are looking at Cal or Stanford or the 5th team from the Big 12, what about Bradley? Their remaining schedule is favorable to possibly get to 12-6 in the MVC. In addition, they are currently 2-3 vs the RPI top 25 and 5-4 vs the top 100. Cal's profile is similar if not a little worse. Bradley also didn't lose to a sub 300 team.

Bracketology 101 said...

Your California-Bradley argument is a good one. After a sweep of Washington and Washington State this past week, Cal deserved a bid, and overall their profile is better than Bradley at this point. While Bradley has an edge in the RPI (72 to 55), Cal has more quality wins than Bradley, and more opportunities for marquee wins the rest of the way. Cal has won at UCLA, and at home against Washington, San Diego State, and Akron, which is more impressive than Bradley's wins over Northern Iowa, Creighton, Missouri State and Western Kentucky (all at home). Bradley's schedule is pretty soft here on out, which is good for them record-wise, but bad for them RPI-wise. They have also struggled mightily on the road, and have a three-game road trip looming. With five conference losses already, and the unliklihood that the MVC is strong enough to get five teams in, Bradley needs to finish no worse than 12-6 to get any serious consideration.

Anonymous said...

Do Virginia or Miami have a shot to be a 6th ACC team in the tourney? Or is the ACC looking at 5 teams in tourney?

Bracketology 101 said...

We considered both Miami and Virginia for this week's bracket but their resumes are just not strong enough yet. Both teams need to get to at least 9-7 in conference to have a shot at a bid because of their weak out of conference resumes. Miami has a better chance of getting to 9-7 because of an easier remaining schedule, but that blowout loss at Virginia (as well as losses to fellow bubble teams Temple and Louisville) may really cost them, especially if Virginia can also get to 9-7. Virginia's home loss to FSU really hurts them. Both teams have plenty of chances to pick up some quality wins in conference and will need too so they can improve their RPIs and resumes.

Anonymous said...

what a joke that Iowa St. and Colorado are in the tourny over a 6th team from the ACC. You can not in any way say the Big 12 is even close to the ACC this year. For example, Duke's 30 point win over Texas. That whole conference is pretty bad this year. Maybe Colorado, their record is impressive, but who have the beat all year??, but they'll continue to beat bad teams all year, and make it, as for Iowa St. that is just an awful selection, they're 3-4 in that conference, which is terrible, they've lost their last 3 home games by an average of 12 points...and they have out of conference home losses to Iona and Fresno St....the Big 12 stinks this year, and their 4 and 5 teams shouldn't be rewarded for playing nobdies all season, until they beat someone like Texas, Oklahoma, or Kansas in conference, they aren't deserving

Anonymous said...

Iowa State has nice wins over Northern Iowa & Iowa. You pointed out the bad losses Iowa State has. These ACC teams also have bad losses. Clemson lost to Elon & Georgia. FSU played a cupcake schedule & have no top 50 wins. Virginia lost to Fordham, Western Kentucky, & got destroyed by Arizona. Miami had no good out of conference wins. Like bracketology 101 pointed out, Miami has lost to fellow bubble teams Virginia, Air Force, & Temple. The ACC is down big time from last year

Anonymous said...

Yeah, obviously they lost a ton of talent from last year, so there's a lot of new guys in there, but the ACC consistantly recruits the best talent in the country, so it just took some time for a lot of these teams to gel, and now a lot of them are playing good basketball........if they are so "bad" this year, then why did they still beat the Big Ten in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge without Boston College playing....the reason is they are better and always have been......and Wisconsin proved why they are not a legit tourney team, let alone a 6 seed....they got destroyed at home by Illinois.....they showed me absolutely nothing last night

Anonymous said...

Wisconsin will make the NCAA tournament. ACC fans will cry when the Big Ten gets 7 teams. The ACC is very mediocre this year. Still the east coast bias will grant them 6 tourney teams.

Anonymous said...

Once again....what better way to settle who is better by playing head to head???.....wait there is no other better way.......so until the Big Ten ACTUALLY wins an ACC/Big Ten Challenge then you can say there is a "bias", but since obviously they lost it yet again this year, you have NO argument that the Big Ten is better, the ACC beat them WITHOUT Boston College, once the Big Ten wins one, which they have never done, then you can say something, until then, you have no credibility at all

Anonymous said...

Huh? I'm confused... When did Syracuse lose to Manhattan??? Am I in an alternate universe here? As of today, they have lost to the following... Florida, Bucknell, UCONN, Pittsburgh, Villanova, and Seton Hall. Check the record, 4 of those teams are currently ranked in the TOP 10 in the country, while Bucknell has been hovering just outside the top 25 all year. I will grant you the Seton Hall loss wasn't great, but they certainly aren't a cupcake either. Syracuse has not been playing well in the past couple weeks... they've been searching a bit for a consistent offensive and defensively balanced line-up, looking for better play on the inside and better guard play, but they are still worthy of an NCAA bid at this point. Hopefully, over the next few weeks leading up to the Big East tournament, they will play a bit better and win some of the bigger games on the schedule... they will obviously have plenty of chances @ UCONN, St. John's, Georgetown, and DePaul, and at home against Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, and Villanova.

Anonymous said...

well whatever, i meant they lost to bucknell at home, and they barely squeaked one out against Manhattan at home, both were not impressive....they barely beat an awful south florida team at home, and all those "quality" losses you're talking about.....they were dominated in each one of them, for the most part of those games, it wasn't even competitive.....so yeah they lost to "quality" opponents, but syracuse looked like they didn't belong on the same floor, and then last night, they have to use a shot at the buzzer to beat an average Rutgers team, who hasn't made the tourney in forever.....so, no, as of right now i don't think they are deserving to make the tourney, maybe if they pull out some big wins late, or make a really good run in the big east tourney, but right now they're not even competitive with tourney teams, they don't have one win against a team who is going to make the tourney, i see them going 7-9 at best in the Big East, they need to get to at the very least 8-8 to make the tourney, but again they haven't been competitive with quality teams, you have no argument, sorry.......

Bracketology 101 said...

Right now Syracuse is a tourney team but not by much that's why they are a 11 seed. The positives for them is that all their losses are to tournament teams right now and they have a strong RPI. Their negatives are the fact that their best win was at Cinci. No one will remember in March that they got blown out in a lot of their losses and that many of their wins were very close. They shouldn't have too much trouble getting to at least 8-8 in conference and they will probably pick up a quality win along the way with all the chances they have (@ UConn, WVU, @G'town, 'Nova). But even if they don't beating fellow Big East bubble teams Cinci and Louisville at home will probably still be enough.

Anonymous said...

The Big Ten is a much better conference than the ACC. The ACC's supposedly 2-3 teams NC State & UNC lost in the Big 10/ACC challenge. Iowa beat NCST. & Illinois beat UNC. Michigan hammered ACC bubble team Miami. For some reason, Duke was paired with middle of the road Indiana rather than 1 of the top Big 10 teams. YOu ACC lovers will see the truth in the NCAA tournament. Duke will be the only ACC team in the Elite 8. The Big 10 will have at least 2 if not more. Iowa & Michigan are both unappreciated by ESPN whop think ACC/Big East are the only 2 conferences

Anonymous said...

ha, i think you're missing the point.......the BIG TEN LOST!!!!...there's no getting around that, you just won't face the simple fact that the ACC is better, there's no way there are MUCH better than the ACC, i mean lets be realistic, the ACC lost just about all its talent from last year, so most of the players in the challenge were unexperienced and young, and they played w/out their 3rd best team, Boston College and the ACC still WON....you just try and ignore the real facts in this......yeah Michigan killed Miami, Miami has geled since then, and would play a lot closer game right now, if not win.....Iowa won by only 3 at home against N.C. State, not that impressive, and Michigan State barely beat Georgia Tech at home, Wisconsin lost to the worst team in the conference in Wake Forest and Illinois barely beat a 5 new starter with 4 freshman UNC team in their first month of playing, now come on...that is not that quality, a rematch right now and guaranteed UNC win. Lets just face it, the bottom half the Big Ten is just god awful...so your upper teams get rewarded for a guaranteed 6 or 7 wins....no team in the Big Ten has a big out of conference besides this challenge, unless you consider Indiana and Illinois beating Kentucky, or if you consider Michigan State winning in ot against Arizona big wins.....face it, the ACC gets punished for having a balanced conference, every road game in the ACC is tough, unlike the overated Big Ten with several cupcake games on the schedule....

Anonymous said...

Please, please please tell me somebody watched that fsu duke game besides me.......the NCAA should be absolutely embarassed by the way the game was officiated...I'm never one to blame games on refs, but there have been many of games where they are just completely one sided for Duke...I guess they're just intimidated by coach K....but this game was just an absolute joke, there is no logical explanation for these calls....first off, in a physical game where FSU had 18 fouls in the second half/overtime..and Duke had only 7, count that again....only 7 in 25 minutes of a physical game, you have got to be freakin' kidding me...when have you ever seen that before????....then Alexander Johnson who was having a great game has 3 fouls as did Sheldon Williams, and Williams got wide open for a dunk, and Johson clearly going for a block crushes Williams' arm, and knocks him to the floor because they are two huge bodies....so of course the refs call an intentional, when in a reverse situation, there's no way an intentional would have been called.....then Williams gets up and throws a huge forearm into Johson's stomach......could have been enough for an ejection, but the ref who is standing right there calls a double technical, when Johnson clearly just stood there and did nothhing.........i couldn't believe what i was seeing, i didn't know that it was a technical to receive a punch....so now he is fouled out of the game, that was a disgrace to the game for calling a T on him for that.....then, i am not lying or biased when i say that Williams commited 10 second half/ot fouls....and not one of them was called, i mean he was crushing people with his body, hacking their arms on shots, and the refs who are standing right there refused to call his 5th foul on him, i guess its against the rules to foul him out.....and then they are calling touch fouls on the other end to put redick on the line, again a disgrace.....despite all this, fsu hangs in there, without their starting center for all of the finish, get the ball down 2 with 11 seconds left in ot, and galloway take it to the hole and williams clearly and i mean clearly knocks it out of bounds....the ref standing right there rewards duke the ball........UNBELIEVABLE!!!!...he clearly cheated AGAIN!!....theres no way he didn't see williams swat it out of bounds...so duke holds on to win by 1 point......please tell me someone else witnessed this absolute embarassment to college basketball, because it was almost like i was watching a movie, i kept thinking theres no way this is really happening............and i know everyone saw the instant replay of the duke-bc game earlier this week when Williams crushed the guy from B.C. with the body and the arm, and knocked him to the floor when B.C. had a chance to tie it under 10 seconds...and the refs don't call the foul, i mean something has to be done, because its getting out of hand, when you play duke, you play against the refs too......................................................................................................someone please agree with me

Bracketology 101 said...

We didn't see the game but I saw some highlights. Just looked like a hard foul to me on Williams and there was no reason for Johnson to get a technical after the play. And Willams got away with a obvious foul at the end of the BC game.