Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:Friday's Games
Who's the best team in the Ivy? The winner of Harvard at Princeton will give us an early leader in the clubhouse.
Saturday's Games
Nebraska knocked off A&M at home last weekend...can the Huskers do the same to Kansas this weekend?
Can Texas take care of Texas Tech at home to lock down a spot on the 1 line?
Is Florida the best team in the SEC? If the Gators beat Kentucky in Gainesville on Saturday, they might be seeded that way on Monday.
Who deserves the best seed from the Pac-10? After Washington's slip-up against Oregon State, it might be Arizona (if the Wildcats can take care of Cal).
Could Washington State have played any worse against Oregon? Are the Cougars worthy of a bid even if they win at Oregon State?
Can the Flying Jimmers complete a season sweep of UNLV?
Can Pitt take care of Cincinnati at home? Isn't it about time the Bearcats picked up a second quality win in conference?
Will Villanova complete a nice 2-0 week with a home win over West Virginia?
Can Missouri and A&M bounce back from losses earlier in the week and beat Baylor and Colorado, respectively, at home?
Will a win at Iowa State be enough to get Kansas State back in the bracket?
Has Syracuse righted the ship? If so, they should no problem at South Florida.
Can Vandy avoid falling to 3-5 in conference and beat South Carolina?
Will Illinois survive a tricky road game at Northwestern?
Does VCU still deserve the Colonial automatic? If George Mason beats ODU at home, the Rams might get bumped.
Can Duquesne improve to 9-0 in the A-10 (9-0!) with a road win over the Bonnies?
Can Xavier and Temple stay within striking distance of the Dukes by beating Saint Louis and Rhode Island at home?
How bad is Conference USA right now? Is Memphis still the team to beat?
Speaking of the Tigers, can they burst Gonzaga's bubble with a win in Spokane?
Does Butler have any chance of winning at Cleveland State after the way they played at Youngstown State?
Seriously, Youngstown State?
Who deserves the Missouri Valley automatic right now? Missouri State (after their head-scratching loss at Evansville)? Northern Iowa (who's won eight in a row)? Or Wichita State (who is a game up in conference but already has home losses to the other two?)
Does the Valley deserve two bids on Monday?
Who needs the win more - St. John's or UCLA? Who gets it?
Can BC save its spot in the bracket and beat Virginia Tech at home?
Can Tennessee avoid losing a trap game at home against Alabama? The Vols play at Kentucky and at Florida next week.
Sunday's Games
Can Minnesota knock off Ohio State? The Gophers will have play a tiny bit better than they did against Indiana on Wednesday.
Doesn't Michigan State just seem destined for the NIT at this point? Do the Spartans still deserve a bid on Monday (with 10 losses) if they don't upset Wisconsin at the Kohl Center?
Is Penn State a one-week wonder? Can the Nittany Lions beat Michigan at home to stay in the bracket?
How will Larry Drew's departure affect North Carolina? Can the Tar Heels beat Florida State at home and keep pace with Duke in conference?
65 comments:
I don't think you grasp the concept of a "leader in the clubhouse". You guys should let me look over your posts for sentences that make you seem uneducated. Just saying.
Would a win for Illinois at Northwestern do much for improving their seed? How much did the Indiana loss hurt them?
I was interested to see if you would incoporate Drew's leaving into your analysis of the UNC/FSU game. It is an interesting loss at an odd time. Interesting in that FSU has not been that great from the perimeter (especially on the road) and Drew is arguably thier best perimeter defender.
Anon, leader in the clubhouse does not necessarily refer to a end situation. The golf term is used to define who has the lead with holes still left to play. Also it can be used at any point in the tournament, not just the final round, so it is an apt description.
But only after the conclusion of a round... There's really no college basketball equivalent, since one team normally doesn't finish earlier than another, at least not early enough to "post" a record or score to be aimed at by the leaders left on the course. It's cool, though, because I read the site for their bracket knowledge, not their mastery of the english language.
At least Tim understands the concept. Lunardi really needs to stop posting anonymously...jeez.
It will be interesting to see how UNC responds without Drew. Not only is he a solid perimeter defender, but the way he left also had to be a jolt to the team. We still like the Heels at home, but not as much as we liked them yesterday.
The Indiana loss hurt Illinois a little bit because it was their second bad loss of the year. If the Illini can win at Northwestern on Saturday, they'll probably creep back up to the 6 line.
How important are top 50 wins going to be for ACC teams? I can see ACC bubble teams with 2 or 3 top 50 wins, but another 4 50-75 wins. How much weight do you think the committee will give a win over RPI 48 versus RPI 56 (as an example)?
What about Indiana they must be on the bubble there worst loss is to by 17 not on netural court and they have 3 huge wins over Illinois,minneosta,michagen. The rest of the losses are close to teams that are in your touranment expect colorado so good resume
Yes Indiana is maybe just outside the bubble...... for the NIT.
@TheNCAATournament:
Emmitt Smith is that you?
First "leader in the clubhouse" and now Indiana's tourney chances?
Can we hit RESET on this entire list of comments?
What seed do you believe Virginia Tech tops out if they win out minus the Duke game?
You bring up a good point about the ACC. The league has five teams right now ranked in the 55-80 range in the RPI and only three in the Top 50 (Duke, UNC, and BC).
Each committee weighs things differently, but they all look at Top 50 wins as well as Top 100 wins when selecting and seeding the bracket. The ACC bubble teams will have to hope that this committee favors quantity over quality.
Probably a 6 for Virginia Tech.
Whats wrong with Indiana you cant say no chance they beat minneosta and Illinois lost to kentucky by 10 and was up by 6 with 6 minutes to go and you said most commites look at top 50 wins they have 2 more then michagen or northwesturn
Indiana is only 12-11 overall (3-7 Big Ten) and has the second-worst RPI in the Big Ten (#125, ahead of #152 Iowa).
And indiana only has 3 legitimate wins, one of which is michigan. Losing by ten to a good team means nothing.
They lost to Kentucky by 19 (not 10).
Next topic?
Can Vcu make the touranment not winning the coloinal. Read my blog the Ncca Touranment click on my thing
Yeah, at large bids normally go to teams with losses to georgia state, northeastern, uab, and richmond.
Now why does The colinal get 2 bids and not other confrences like the wac,wcc,confrence usa
@ NCAA Tournament
So, why is UCLA one of your last four teams in, along with Alabama (!)? It's hard to have credibility as a bracketology (or Nitology) expert when one cannot spell resume or the Northern in Northern Iowa (who seem way too far down the list in the NIT, as they are a bubble team for the NCAAs).
He also spelled ncaa with two c's instead of two a's, and spelled tournament wrong.
I think one of the better games of the weekend will be the George Mason-Old Dominion battle in the CAA. I can understand GMU not getting a ton of love because they lack a signature win. The blowout of Hofstra was a start, but beating ODU would be key. And speaking of ODU, they have underachieved a little in conference play so far. How about that bad loss VCU suffered this week??
I will be attending the GMU-ODU game...I'm very excited in what should be a very exciting basketball weekend.
Why I have Alabama in beacuse they have the best record in the sec in confrence and ucla is a better team then most
I think ucla has a shot, but they'd better not lose at home vs st. Johns... Alabama has 3 big games left, at tennessee, at vandy, and at florida. Win two, and they're in. If not, they're out.
Clemson has run 21 straight up on georgia tech... Went from 11 down to 10 up...
Virginia Tech makes me want to cry!!! They dominate the boards, win the turnover numbers, but can't make a damn shot. NO TEAM WANTS TO DISTINGUISH THEMSELVES ON THE BUBBLE!
Why do I have a feeling a team will miss the tournament this year despite finishing in the Top 25?
Looks like Alabama wants to play in the NCAA Tournament.
Nice OT win by Alabama today. Anthony Grant has things "Rollin" in Tuscaloosa.
Vanderbilt also put a beat down on South Carolina, they have a big week next week with Alabama and Kentucky coming to Nashville.
Bama still isn't worthy of an at-large people. Dont have accurate RPI numbers but it was over 100 before the day started. Only 2 signature wins vs Kentucky and at Tenn. Their OOC performance was not even deserving of an NIT consideration. Yes they've played well recently, but their gonna have to keep beating top SEC East teams to have a shot at at-large.
AG, What team do you think will finish in top 25, but not make tourney??? That just doesnt make sense. I mean pollers aren't great at assesing teams, but they're not that bad.
FWIW, Utah State was left out of the NCAA Tournament in 2004 after finishing #22 and #25 in the polls on Selection Sunday.
No one's necessarily saying Alabama is worthy of an at-large right now, but they seem to be playing themselves into consideration (winning 5 in a row and 10 out of 11) at a time when bubble teams are finding ways to lose. They still have three crucial games against the East (@ Vanderbilt/@ Florida/Georgia) that will have a big say in whether or not they can get an at-large. They probably have to win at least two out of those three.
Anonymous is right about Alabama. The Tide picked up a very nice road win tonight, but they have a ways to go to get an at-large. They still have more bad losses than they have Top 100 wins, and their RPI is still hovering around triple digits.
If they can win at least two of the three big games they have left (at Vandy, at Florida, vs. Georgia), then they'll be in the mix.
I don't know who the last 5 teams or so in right now are, but there's no way you can keep alabama out right now. They're 7-1 in a big 6 conference. If they finish 12-4, they're an absolute lock,
Sunday updates for Alabama:
97 RPI
2 Top 100 wins
4 losses outside the Top 100
Alabama does not deserve to make it.
They beat absolutely no one out of conference and lost to St Peters and bottom dwelling teams such as Seton Hall, Providence and Oklahoma. I mean there most impressive OOC win was Lipscomb.
So because they beat UK by 2 and won in OT to UT, we are considering them?
That 7-1 is inflated because they play their games in the SEC West. 4 of those 7 wins have come from Auburn (who might just be the worst BCS conference school right now), LSU and Miss St.
I just don't see it.
How do the 2-0 and 0-2 weeks for Florida and Kentucky affect their seedings?
If they're 12-4 or 13-3 in the sec, they'll be in.
If they lose at Florida and Vandy and win the rest of them and go 13-3 in conference, I still think they wont be in. Such a bad OOC it's really hard to overcome in a conference that is really not any better than MWC or A-10.
I get what you're saying. Unfortunately, if you have a statistic that says that someone who's 13-3 in the sec doesn't deserve a bid, you need to find a new stat.
Alabama will need to win at least the quarterfinal of the SEC Tournament too.
"If you don't think this team is one of the top 65 teams in the country, you're certifiably insane," Alabama coach Anthony Grant said after the win at Tennessee. "Because I don't know who else could come into this environment, basically play a road game, whoever else is on the bubble, and play those guys the way we just played them."
Unfortunately, Alabama must get to 13-3 to have a legitimate at-large beef. 2 wins versus the top 100 and 4 losses to teams outside the top 100. That's not even a bubble team.
Consider us certifiably insane.
I wonder if Lunardi moves Alabama to an 11 seed. That would be hilarious.
Looks like Michigan State will be under .500 in the Big Ten in about an hour.
Tough loss for Penn State. What do they need to do now? Finish 5-2 in the Big Ten?
Lunardi doesn't make sense:
Please tell me you will not have Kentucky a team that went 0-2 this week as a 4 seed?
Marquette as a 9 seed? So if they lose out are they gonna be the "last team in"?
I won't claim to know much on this, but Washington...a team that just got swept by the state of Oregon as a 6 seed?
PLEASE ADDRESS THIS, Bowling Green, the 3rd place team in the MAC East gets the auto bid and a 16 seed?!?!?!
Penn State is toast...0-2 this week against bad to mediocre teams. If they're lucky to finish 5-2, then we'll see.
I'm still pushing for George Mason love. Two big wins this week...all pointing to the Feb. 15 showdown with VCU.
Kentucky's probably going to be on the 5 line in tomorrow's bracket.
Marquette deserves to be in, but they don't deserve a single-digit seed.
Washington will drop to the 8/9 range after their awful week.
Bowling Green was a half game up in the MAC East standings on Friday, so that's why Lunardi gave them the auto bid. (Remember, he just gives the first place team in each conference the auto bid and uses RPI to break ties; he doesn't pick who he thinks the best team is). Kent State deserves the MAC auto bid, and they'll keep it in our bracket tomorrow.
Penn State's loss to Michigan is killer. The Nittany Lions need a 5-2 finish now to be in the mix, and that's going to be very, very difficult with the schedule they have left.
How bad was the Virginia Tech loss at BC yesterday? It drops them to 5-4 in the ACC, but losing by 2 at BC seems to be less worse than the losses most bubble teams are taking this weekend.
The Hokies will probably hang onto one of the final at-large spots tomorrow.
We like George Mason a lot too, and it's going to be a tough call this week between Mason and VCU for the Colonial auto bid.
The Patriots have one fewer loss than VCU, a 30 point RPI edge, an 80 point SOS edge, and two more Top 100 wins. What they don't have (which VCU does) is a quality OOC win. VCU also has an easier conference schedule left considering they get ODU and Mason at home.
It occurs to me this could be the craziest year for conference tournaments *EVER*
Literally anyone could beat anyone. It would not shock me if teams like Indiana and Mississippi win their automatic bids.
I think Penn State can finish 4-3 if one of those wins is @ Wisconsin.
With Florida going 2-0 this week against UK and Vandy, does that make them a 3 or 4 seed?
Probably a 4.
This season is exactly why the Tournament should never expand to 96+ teams.
I will be stunned if Penn State finishes 5-2.
New bracket out soon?
Mike I love your name but there's no way Penn St is winning in Wisconsin never mind beating them twice in one season. I'm a huge Ohio State fan and I'm excepting a loss on Saturday. Wisconsin undefeated at the Kohl center and the Buckeyes undefeated everywhere something has to give.
George Mason has no good wins away from the Patriot Center outside of Harvard. VCU has wins AT ODU and vs. UCLA on a neutral court. I'm not sure how that justifies Mason being a line better than VCU in the seeding.
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