Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the night's games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.--------
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Wednesday's Games
It's going to be a busy night in Bubbleville, as two teams on our Last Four In list and four teams on our First Eight Out list are in action.
The biggest bubble battle of the night takes place in Lincoln, where bracket newcomer Nebraska hosts Kansas State. The game is essentially a must-win for the Huskers, who will need to finish 9-7 in conference and win at least one Big XII tournament game to be position for an at-large. It's hard to see them getting to 9-7 if they don't win tonight, considering they have two tricky road games (at Iowa State and at Colorado) and a home game against Missouri left. Kansas State can probably get a bid with an 8-8 finish and one Big XII tourney win, and if they come away victorious tonight, that mark is very attainable.
The other game tonight involving a Last Four In team is Colorado State at BYU. The Rams missed out on a huge opportunity on Saturday by losing at home to UNLV, and as a result, they need to go at least 2-2 down the stretch to have any chance of an at-large. We certainly don't expect them to beat the Jimmers on the road, but we do expect them to win at Air Force on Saturday. A good showing tonight (even in a loss) would give them some much-needed momentum heading into the weekend.
Of the four games involving teams just off the bubble, the most intriguing is Wisconsin at Michigan. The Wolverine faithful have hijacked our poll questions the last couple of weeks in support of their team, but all of those mouse clicks won't mean anything if Michigan doesn't take care of business in its two remaining home games. A 3-0 finish would get Michigan on the right side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament; a 2-1 mark means they'll have to win two Big Ten tourney games to be in the mix.
In other Last Eight Out action, Baylor plays at Missouri, Boston College hosts Miami, and VCU plays at Drexel. The Bears' final four games are brutal, which makes their loss over the weekend to Texas Tech all the more crushing. They'll need two wins down the stretch to stay alive for an at-large. BC has now lost five of its last seven and needs a win over the Hurricanes tonight to stay in the bracket on Monday, and VCU needs to keep winning games period to keep the Colonial's dream of three bids alive. The Rams wrap up their regular season this week with tonight's tricky road game against the Dragons and a home game against James Madison on Saturday. If they finish 2-0 and make the Colonial final, they will be one of the toughest calls to make on Selection Sunday.
The three other must-watch games of the night are Temple at Duke, Cincinnati at Georgetown, and Florida State at Maryland. The Blue Devils moved up to the 1 line in our bracket this week, and they'll remain there on Monday provided they don't slip up at home against the Owls tonight or at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Cincinnati and Florida State, meanwhile, are in pretty similar positions with to weeks to go in the regular season. The Bearcats will get an at-large if they can win two of their final four games (at Georgetown, UConn, at Marquette, Georgetown). If they go 1-3, they'll have to win two Big East tournament games to feel completely safe. The 'Noles need two wins in their final four games to be a lock, and will need two ACC tournament wins to feel totally safe if they finish 1-3.
Also keep an eye on: Notre Dame at Providence, Purdue at Indiana, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, North Carolina at North Carolina State, DePaul at St. John's, Kentucky at Arkansas, Auburn at Alabama, UNLV at New Mexico, UTEP at East Carolina, Creighton at Wichita State, Missouri State at Southern Illinois
93 comments:
Hi guys. Love the blog. Question: if BC beats Miami tonight but loses at Virginia on Saturday, are they still among the last four in?
Probably not... Virginia is TERRIBLE. A 2-win week is probably enough to get them in.
Yep, if you're team's on the bubble, just figure that they need to keep winning.
No. BC needs a 2-0 week to stay in the bracket on Monday.
Dear Mr. Bracketology 101,
My team is currently on the bubble. Do they need to win any more games or can they keep losing to mediocre squads and still get a tourmanent bid?
Thoughts on how high a seed FSU could attain if they were to go 3-1 in their final 4 and get to a)ACCT semis (1 ACCT win), b) ACCT finals (2 ACCT wins)?
They could be a six, depending on how it falls... If they beat UNC twice in those games, probably around a 6. If they lose to UNC twice, and their best win of the stretch is @maryland... Probably a 7.
If the Terps win tonight, are they back in the conversation? I'm thinking they need to win their last 4 to finish 10-6 and get to the semis to get in.
They'd probably be one of those teams rooting for Utah state and GMU, and St. Mary's in the conference tourney... Seems like someone always gets on a roll, wins 4-5 straight going into the conference tourney, and stays within 5-7 points of POSG(Presumed One seed giant). A couple of years back it was FSU, who got left out after losing to UNC in the semis.
Does Michigan have to beat Wisconsin tonight or can they go 2-1 losing to Wisy and beating Minn and MSU? And of course win the first game in the BTT?
FSU could get to a 7 if the make the ACC tourney semis and a 6 if they make the finals.
Maryland needs to finish 10-6 and make it to at least the ACC tourney semis to have a chance.
When Terps win tonight, are they back in the conversation? Then after they take care of Roy (who Gary absolutely owns) they will be able to finish 10-6. Getting to the semi's of the ACC Tourney would put them at lock status... agree??
The way Minnesota is playing right now, does it count as a quality win if Michigan beats them? The Wolverines need to beat Wisconsin if they plan on 9-9 being enough.
Disagree that Cincinnati would have to win 2 Big East tournament games with a 9-9 finish in the Big East to be in the discussion. With Two games against Georgetown, UConn at home, and @Marquette whatever game UC wins is going to be a solid quality win.
I will give you that will lock up a bid but I still think two wins should do. 2-2 finish or 1-3 plus a conference tournament victory. I can't see 23-10, 9-9 in the Big East being left out this season. With wins over Xavier, @St. John's, Lousville, and Dayton (on a nuetral court), plus one of the last four not getting in.
Minnesota has 10 losses... They're a tourney contender because they have good wins, not because it's overly tough to beat them.
If michigan loses tonight, they'd be guaranteed 13 losses(if they win out after tonight to finish with 12 on the year, then they get the Auto and it's irrelevant), and would have no signature wins, even if they'd have swept Penn st and MSU.
I guarantee that if U of M loses tonight, they will not get an at large.
Minnesota is out right now and has to go 2-1 and win 2 games in the BTT for a chance. I would put Michigan's chances of making the dance better than Minn.
Less than a month ago, B101 posted the different seeds that FSU could get based on ACC finish
14-2: 3 seed
13-3: 4 seed
12-4: 5 seed
Since then, they've lost at clemson and at UNC, but with a win tonight they could easily still finish 12-4... What has changed so drastically?
Hey B101, how are you enjoying the mediocrity 4 way dogfight for first in the Horizon?
Call it mediocrity but when was the last time the HL had three teams hanging around the RPI top 50?
I post too many times on websites discussing the NCAA tournament.
There. Step 1. Identifying you have a problem.
I just find it so darn interesting...
Also interesting...
Michigan State is 16-3 vs teams not in the top 17 of your S-curve, and has 4 wins over teams in your current tourney (5 if you include oakland, but I bet no one considers that a quality win).
If they had played just 4 teams in the top 17 of your S-curve, they'd be 16-7 with 4 quality wins, and likely a 6-7 seed. Why punish them for playing so many good teams?
Speaking of mid-majors, what's everyone's take on George Mason's seed should they win out from here?
I think they'll be seeded a good 4 levels too high if they win out, considering they have just one win over a team in the tourney, and have losses to Nc St., Hofstra, and Wofford.
Will, have you heard about Chris Singleton?
Tonight's game is basically do or die for the Wolverines, no question.
Nebraska is the other team that desperately needs a win tonight. No way they're getting in at 8-8, and none of their remaining games are easy.
Baylor is in deep trouble. With Gonzaga and Wazzou sliding, their non-conference keeps looking worse and worse. I think they actually need to win 3 of these 4 games given their poor non-conference, and they are a long shot to go 3-1.
I won't be surprised to see VCU drop this game to Drexel or BC lose to Miami.
As an FSU fan, the name rings a bell...On the other hand, if they win their next 3 and get to the semis or finals, they were probably OK without him, no?
That's probably right, which is why their last 4 are so important. Tonight is their first real test without him, we'll see how it goes. If they go 1-3 down the stretch, they'll be in trouble.
A 2-2 finish and one Big East tourney win might end up being enough for Cincinnati in the end. The reason a second game might be necessary is that the Bearcats might be viewed as the 11th best Big East team at that point, which is a precarious position given the politics that might go on the selection room.
We don't think George Mason will get any higher than a 7 if they win out. Their most likely destination is the 8/9 game.
The Horizon is going to be one of the most interesting conferences to watch over the next two weeks. It could be a one-bid league, it could get two bids if Butler loses in the final, and (this is a longer shot), Cleveland State could be in the mix for an at-large if they win the regular season title and lose in the Horizon final.
We figured Florida State would win at Clemson, and that knocked their seed down a little. If they finish 12-4, they'll be around a 6 seed heading into the ACC tournament.
When will you start making a bracket more than once per week?
But if they won at clemson, in order to finish 12-4 they'd have had to lose the UM game AND the maryland game to get to 12-4... Swapping the clemson win for the maryland win shouldn't make a seed line difference, should it?
Michigan gets in:
-if they are 20-13 and beat Wisconsin, split the last two @Minn/vs. MSU, and win in the first round of the BTT.
-if they are 21-13 and lose to Wisconsin, win the last two and win in the first two rounds of the the BTT.
-if they win out in the regular season.
-Obviously, if they find a crazy way to win the BTT.
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Michigan will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they lose tonight and finish 20-13, and I'd say if that ends up happening, they have a 40% chance of getting in
It has been a while since CUSA had three teams in the RPI Top 50. It has seven in the Top 100. If UTEP and Tulsa win tonight, there will be a five-way tie for first at 9-4. How many bids do you think CUSA will get?
If Cincinnati wins 2 more games before the Big East to finish 10-8 they don't need anymore wins. They will be no worse than a 9 seed and probably higher. I am so sick of hearing the junk about being 11 Big East Teams. There are 16 teams in the league. Its not crazy when 5 of 8 or 6 0f 9 made it in the old days.
Everyone says UC non-conference schedule was awful but they still picked up one top 25 win and another on the verge of the top 50. Wins at Miami-Oh and Oklahoma and a home win against Wright State are solid. UC's problem is that played a few too many Georgia Southern's and Florida A & M type teams. Which is costing them one to two seed lines in my view because they should be around a 6 or 7 seven seed if they scheduled smarter.
Cincinnati has five true road wins and one semi road (Oklahoma at OK City) and one semi home (Dayton in downtown Cincinnati where the tickets were split and were not part of the season ticket package for UC). Seven wins away from campus is more than a bunch bubble teams.
What does Penn state need to do to get in?
If Southern Miss wins out and makes it to the CUSA final are they in?
Minnesota is done, they are 6-9!
Quick hits:
We start daily brackets during Championship Week.
C-USA is getting a max of two bids.
Cincinnati is in if they finish 10-8 and will probably be in the 8/9 range. (Let's not go too far and say their OOC resume was good...their OOC SOS is 274.)
There are a few ways Penn State can get an at-large:
1. Go 3-0 down the stretch and win one Big Ten tourney game.
2. Go 2-1, beat Ohio State, and make it to at least the semis of the Big Ten tournament.
The Nittany Lions' biggest issue right now is their 12 losses. They have plenty of nice home wins (and a chance to add one more), but a 14-loss finish (especially if they don't beat the Buckeyes) would put them squarely on the bubble.
First things first, they need to win what will be a tricky game at Northwestern tomorrow night. If they lose that game, they have a LOT of work to do.
Hey B101,
I'm sick of mid-major fans sticking up for the small schools using the following argument:
"The only reason BCS conference teams have more top 50 RPI wins is because they get more opportunities to play them."
To me, this is completely illogical. For a school like Indiana who has 1 or 2 top-50 wins, yes. But when a team has 4, like Penn State, that's not just cause of opportunity. One or two is a lucky upset, 4 means you're a good team. This is the argument I make for Penn State, Va Tech, Maryland over the Richmonds of the world.
Things that annoy me this time of year from other bracketolgy gurus this time of year.
1. RPI is a rating not a ranking!
2. SOS is really opponents' winning percentage. The best way to look at schedule strenght is count the number game against top 50, top 100, top 200 teams etc..
3. SOS or OWP is part of the RPI formula don't give me the RPI and then argue how strong or weak a school's SOS is, its in there already.
4. Selection Committee please look at the Pomeroy or Sagarin ratings because they do a better job in my view of rating the teams than the RPI does.
5. Get rid of the limits on bids per conference that you seem to have every year. Let the Big East get 11 teams if there are 11 teams that belong in the tournament. That goes for every conference.
6. National tournament and geographic balance are poor excuses to raise the profile of teams on the West Coast.
7. Conference records are not telling because outside of the PAC-10 and the MWC none of the big boys play a round robin.
Even, my biggest problem with your argument is one of context. People talk about "quality wins" or "top 50 wins" without any context.
If we're going to set "top 50 wins" as the standard and include home wins in that equation, then the proper adjustment needs to be made for road wins.
If you go study the Sagarin ratings and look at his home court advantage factor that's based on every D1 game played this season, you'll see that beating the #50 team at home is roughly equal to beating the #85 team on a neutral floor or beating the #120 team on the road.
This is also why top 50 wins is partially a function of opportunity. If you get to play several of these games at home, it greatly increses your chances of winning.
What's Michigan's chance of winning tonight?
Great points by Anonymous 2:27. I would add that top 50 is arbitrary anyway. I think the committee is trying to get a sense of how teams will fare against other tournament-quality teams, especially away from home. Therefore, top 60 or 70 might be a better indicator. For example, Richmond won at Dayton (#52 rpi) and that is sure to impress the committee, even if it doesn't show up in their record versus the top 50.
Anon 3:47--Michigan's chance of winning tonight is 29% per Ken Pomeroy's Rankings.
I like the discussion about ratings. Should the teams that are the most likely to win games (to me the best teams) get in the tournament or should it be the teams that have performed the best in the regular season. The difference is the Sagarin Predictor versus the Sagarin Elo Chess. Teams will be seed closer to the RPI or Elo Chess, but results will be closer to the Predictor or Pomeroy.
If Michigan State and Illinois both finish at 9-9 in conference, meeting in the 4-5 game in the first round of the big 10 tournament, is it a play-in/play-out game, are they both safe, or is it too early to tell with the rest of the bubble.
Predictor rankings don't necessarily tell you which teams are more likely to win games because they're point spread based. Winning and losing aren't even a part of the formula. They say nothing about a teams ability to win close games, etc.
The Colonial has an RPI of 10 and C-USA is 8. Why is the Colonial more deserving of 3 bids than C-USA is of getting 2 bids? C-USA is pretty strong top to bottom. Rice, 4-8, only lost by 3 at Texas. And UCF who went undefeated OOC with wins over Florida and Miami is only 4-9 in C-USA. C-USA has 3 Top 50 teams and 7 in the Top 100. The Colonial only has 2 in the Top 50 and 6 in the Top 100.
it mainly because the top teams in the CAA had outstanding out of conference performance, Old Dominion especially, can't think of them off the top of my head but have seen multiple post regarding them. Also VCU was pretty solid OOC and I am sure someone will clean this up for you.
Looking at where a conference is ranked in the RPI has no merit to determine the TEAMS that belong in the NCAA Tournament.
C-USA's problem is that four teams have decent resumes but nothing outstanding. Heck there could be a second C-USA team if USM, Memphis, UAB, or UTEP prove enough over the next few weeks and/or a random team wins the automatic bid like last year.
@Evan 1:12
Totally disagree with your argument. The issue is not if a team gets a quality win (like Indiana), it is the sheer number of them, and that does depend to a fair degree on the number of chances it gets. Example: Let's say mid-major gets 2 chances at OOC quality wins and 2 chances in-conference(because their conference is not as strong and really on has 1 other quality team), and say they win 1 of 2 OOC and 1 of 2 in-conference -- 50%.
Another team, but in Big 6 conference gets 2 chances at OOC quality wins and then 10 chances in-conference, and wins 1 of 2 OOC and 3 of 10 in-conference = 4 quality wins, and fair chance of a bid if it takes out the bottom feeders of its league and finishes .500 or better.
4 quality wins, but largely because they had 12 chances (33.3% conversion percentage) versus 2 quality wins but a 50% conversion percentage.
In addition -- and I take no credit for this, one of the smarter posters here than I brought this up originally -- the chance of the mid-major having OPPORTUNITIES for quality wins at home is essentially equal to 1/2 of quality-win opportunities in-conference (so in my example, only 1 of 4 chances would be at home). Big conference schools are simply not going to be visiting (other than maybe Georgetown if you are lucky enough to get them). For big conference school, you might get 1 of the OOC chances at home and then you would get 50% of in-conference at home (so, in my example, 6 quality win opportunities at home). Home v. road makes such a huge difference.
Translation, yes, it does matter how many chances at a quality win you get and it matters maybe even more how many of those are at home. The road is clearly much tougher for a mid-major. The deck is stacked in favor of the big boys. But then again, that is in all of life isn't it?
good news bubble teams Boston College decided not to show up, they are down 29-12 at home to Miami.
If Northwestern beats PSU and Minnesota at home, but loses at Wisc, and then wins 2 games as the #7 seed, do they have any chance at all?
That would put them at 20-12, 8-10 in conference.
No. 8-10 in a down conference? Get outta here. PSU and Minn arent even good wins anymore. Big10 deserves 3 teams but may get a 4th since there are 68 teams now. Northwestern will not get in.
Michigan fans must be sick after that bank-shot buzzer beater, I think they must win out and get to the finals of the BTT.
Who's Northwestern?
and LOL @ all the "Bama passes the eye test blah blah blah".
Down 26-16 AT HOME TO AUBURN. What a joke that they're even in the discussion.
Both BC and VCU trying to find ways to win in final minute.
Just an absolutely brutal loss for Michigan tonight. They need to win their last two games and get to the Big Ten semis (maybe the final) to get an at-large now.
What does this loss mean for Boston College?
I love all the people thumping their chests for why their school needs more respect (Cincinnati guy and others) in a comments section of a blog.
B101 is not the selection committee. There's nothing to be gained by arguing with them. They are guessing what the selection committee will do, not trying to disrespect your team.
Michigan might not get in at 9 and 9, but if they don't then BC isn't getting in either. They are behind Michigan on the bubble with that disgusting home loss.
Wisconsin is just going to keep doing what they do, which is run into teams they're not used to in the NCAA Tournament and lose in the second round. Again.
What does BC have to do?
I figured they got to win out and at least make it to the ACC semis, maybe even the finals
Ted Valentine and the other refs are doing their best to keep Bama in this game. The fact that this game is even close should knock Alabama off the bubble regardless of the outcome. 43-40 Auburn with 4:30 to go.
Yeah I just hope Auburn can finish it off so we can stop talking about Alabama
Wow, Kentucky can't win on the road. SEC is looking brutal this week. First Vandy, now UK, is Florida next?
It makes me sick hearing the ESPN commentators talk about Lunardi's bracket as if it is gospel. They only known what he tells them to know!!!
My Cats are killing me.
Doesn't help that the Wolverines are my other team.
Ugg, Alabama pulled it out. I was hoping they would lose but Auburn wasn't good enough at the charity stripe. Whatever the "eye test" is, Alabama didn't show it tonight.
With this win over Georgetown I believe Cincinati has to be considered a LOCK.
Baylor = painful. That Baylor / Missouri game tonight might just set an all-time record for turnovers in a regulation time (non-overtime) game. Brutal. It's like some bizarre fusion with dodge-ball out there tonight.
Hopefully after tonight we can just stop talking about BC, Mich, Baylor, etc. Unfortunately 'Bama isn't on that list and now we will probably get into 7,001 questions/comments on FSU.
What we've learned tonight...
The Big East will get at least 10 bids.
The ACC may not get 4 bids.
It may not have been pretty, but Alabama pulled it out and no one will care that it was just a 2 point win on Selection Sunday.
The bank was open late in Michigan.
No one wants to win C-USA.
VCU can't win a conference game.
Cincy winning at Georgetown = HUGE win.
Alabama BLOWS.
FSU looks bad.
UNLV win and they're safely in.
Duquesne has to win the A10 now.
CYA Boston College.
How much do you guys think this lose impacts Florida State's tounrament chances.
Aaagggghhhh. The FSU floodgate has opened.
Here was our take on FSU before the game tonight. It's still our take now.
The 'Noles need two wins in their final four games to be a lock, and will need two ACC tournament wins to feel totally safe if they finish 1-3.
@bracketology 101
Are you sure big east gets 10 bids. I could see WVU having trouble getting in. Already have 9 losses with 4 tough games left (@Pitt, @Rutgers, Uconn, & Louisville). If they lose 3 out of 4, they are in trouble heading into the BE tourney. But i agree that the other 9 are locks to make the ncaa tourney
Pretty convincing win for the Terps tonight over FSU and combine that with a pretty bad loss for BC at home against Miami makes things interesting down the stretch in the ACC. Big game for the Terps this weekend against UNC.
If FSU were to only win 1 more game, can you see a scenario where the ACC could only get 2 bids? BC and VT aren't looking good either.
I just don't see how the fourth best conference (ACC) only gets 3 bids. In fact, I think only 4 is ridiculous when we're talking about the thoroughly mediocre SEC getting 6, to be honest.
If Maryland beats UNC on Saturday, I don't see how the Terps aren't in regardless of what happens. Even if they lose -- so long as it's close -- they should be in the bubble conversation. Of the Terps' 10 losses, all 10 are to tournament or bubble teams; I guess their worst losses now are to BC. I mean, the selection committee can see that it'd be criminal to bypass a team that talented in favor of the crap sandwich that we saw from Alabama tonight, can't they??
Nebraska has done itself in. Michigan let Wisconsin rob it's bank. VCU is having cold feet. Conference Cannibalism is tearing Conference USA to shreds. Wichita State barely hung on. And that's just tonight.
Given the Ev3nts of the last few nights, is it possible(however slight the possibilites at) that the Big East could have 12 of it's teams on the Big Dance floor?
LOL @ Alabama: Bama had a bad game, but also do you recall that auburn had florida beat and lost it at the end of the game and took uga to over time at uga. Plus its a rivalry stuff like this always happens. When we win by 20 its how bad the other team is but when bama barely pulls it out they suck. So vandy barely beat us at vandy im guessing they suck too? Good thing there is no difference between a 25 point win and a 2 point win in the RPI. Roll Tide cant wait for selection sunday.
LOL @ Alabama: Bama had a bad game, but also do you recall that auburn had florida beat and lost it at the end of the game and took uga to over time at uga. Plus its a rivalry stuff like this always happens. When we win by 20 its how bad the other team is but when bama barely pulls it out they suck. So vandy barely beat us at vandy im guessing they suck too? Good thing there is no difference between a 25 point win and a 2 point win in the RPI. Roll Tide cant wait for selection sunday.
Thank God for LSU, otherwise we might be hearing about how Miss. St. deserves a bid being #2 and with a winning record in conference in that vicious SEC West.
Never said it was a good division, but good teams have bad games, but good teams pull it out in the end....
Can Maryland pass Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order if both finish with the same conference record? VT swept UMD.
With the Michigan's, BC's, VCU's, and Nebraska's of bubble world losing tonight it does open up the door for a team like Maryland. But the Terps tourney hopes really are riding on them winning at UNC which we don't see happening.
Pennnnnnnn State gets its shot tomorrow.
Is Baylor done? They're just so incredibly bad at playing like a team.
For those of you who are fans of non-Big Ten teams, I could only wish you had to play an ultra-unstoppable offensive team that makes 0 mistakes and gets all the calls like we do when we play Wisconsin twice a year. Its intolerable!
Assuming you're a Michigan fan, I didn't know "ultra-unstoppable offensive" teams put up 59.5 points, which is what they averaged in two games against the Wolverines. Look at those Badgers go!
There is absolutely no way that Maryland gets in without a single win against a top 50 team. A loss to UNC would make them 0-9 against teams in that category.
Not sure that the Big East gets 10 bids. Probably 11. LOLing at thinking West Virginia is on the bubble. No terrible losses with wins @Gtown, home over Purdue and Notre Dame, neutral court over Vandy, and @Cincy. If you can find me a "bubble" team with those kinds of wins, good luck.
Games with Wisconson have such low scores since they play great team D and run the shot clock down to 1 on like 90% of their posessions. It's really frustrating to watch sometimes when your team never has the stupid ball.
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