Last week we saw very little turnover in the bracket, so it is not too surprising to see five teams replaced this week. We ended up dropping Penn State, Michigan State, Missouri State, Old Dominion, and Gonzaga from the bracket in favor of Colorado State, Wichita State, Kansas State, Baylor, and George Mason.It was obviously a bad week for the Big Ten, as they saw both Michigan State and Penn State drop a pair of games. The Spartans are in absolute free-fall mode, having lost five of six and losing both games this week by 20+ points. Penn State made its first appearance in the bracket last week, but it appears to have been short-lived. Their bracket inclusion was based on the expectation that they could finish above .500 in conference , but it's very hard to envision that after their home loss to Michigan.
For weeks now, we have had two bids coming out of the Colonial and just one out of the Missouri Valley. The only thing that has changed week-to-week has been the teams that are in from each conference, which was again the case this week. Wichita State managed to slide back in out of the MVC, while George Mason replaced Old Dominion because of their head-to-head victory over the weekend. BracketBuster games will likely have a big say in which of these mid-major conferences gets two bids, with VCU playing at Wichita State and George Mason playing at Northern Iowa. If the MVC win both of these games and also does well elsewhere, they could very well be the conference with two bids in the end.
As we get closer and closer to March, we are sorting through the bubble even more in depth to try and find that team that has a good chance to go on a run and steal a bid in their conference tournament A team that got a lot of discussion this week was UTEP, based on the fact that the Conference USA tournament is in El Paso and the Miners sit atop the C-USA standings and have only lost one home game all year. If the Miners continue to stay atop the conference standings in the coming weeks, we will likely add them to our bracket as the C-USA auto bid. Right now, we think Memphis is the league's best team, so we kept them in as the automatic.
This week's biggest seed decliner was Texas A&M, who went from a 3 to a 6 because of their 20- point home loss to Texas and their home loss to Baylor. The other decliners this week were Kentucky and Washington, both of which slipped two seed lines after 0-2 weeks. The biggest seed increase was given to UCLA, who jumped from an 11 to an 8 because of their big OOC win over St. John's and because they now have sole possession of second place in the Pac-10. Other climbers were Syracuse, Arizona, and Richmond, who saw their seeds jump up two lines each.
Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Colorado State, Washington State, Baylor, Duquesne
First Four Out
Michigan State, Old Dominion, Gonzaga, Missouri State
Next Four Out
Alabama, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, UTEP
"First Four" Games
Colorado State vs. Washington State, Baylor vs. Duquesne, Long Island vs. Hampton, Jackson State vs. McNeese State
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), ACC (5), Big Ten (5), SEC (5), A-10 (4), MWC (4), Pac-10 (4), Colonial (2)
America East - Vermont
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne
Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia, St. John's, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - Coastal Carolina
Big Ten - Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Baylor
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - George Mason, VCU
Conference USA - Memphis
Horizon - Cleveland State
Ivy - Princeton
MAAC - Fairfield
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Hampton
MVC - Wichita State
MWC - San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, Colorado State
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Murray State
Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Washington State
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia
Southern - Charleston
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic
SWAC - Jackson State
WAC - Utah State
WCC - St. Mary's
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Texas
The 2s
Duke, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Connecticut
The 3s
BYU, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse
The 4s
Florida, Wisconsin, Louisville, Purdue
The 5s
Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
The 6s
Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Temple, Tennessee
The 7s
Arizona, Minnesota, UNLV, Xavier
The 8s
St. Mary's, Illinois, UCLA, Florida State
The 9s
St. John's, Washington, Utah State, Cincinnati
The 10s
Georgia, Boston College, Marquette, Richmond
The 11s
Wichita State, George Mason, Kansas State, Memphis
The 12s
VCU, Virginia Tech, Colorado State vs. Washington State (FF), Baylor vs. Duquesne (FF)
The 13s
Cleveland State, Belmont, Princeton, Coastal Carolina
The 14s
Charleston, Kent State, Oakland, Vermont
The 15s
Fairfield, Florida Atlantic, Bucknell, Montana
The 16s
Long Beach State, Murray State, Long Island vs. Hampton (FF), Jackson State vs. McNeese State (FF)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments?E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.
85 comments:
How is Baylor in the bracket??? I mean if if your picking for a 5th Big 12 team I think Oklahoma St. has a much better resume then Baylor
Ok St (RPI:46 3 wins vs RPI top 50, 16-7 overall with 60 SOS)
Baylor (RPI:76 2 wins vs RPI top 50, 15-7 overall with 80 SOS)
I know the win against A&M was big, but not enough to get them in bracket.
Also, im still not sold on Bama being that close to in. If they dont win at Vandy or Florida they should not be in discusion.
We're not going to argue that Baylor has a better resume thak Ok State right now because that case can easily be made. But if you look down the line we like Baylor's chances to finish with a winning record in the Big 12 a lot better than Oklahoma State. The Cowboys first need to win a conference road game before we will put them back into the bracket.
Can you give me a breakdown of the reasons why St. Mary's is ahead of of Florida State? 3 wins over tourney teams for Fsu, just one for st mary's...
Same for illinois... They have just two wins over tournament teams, none as good as fsu's win over duke, and have 3 bad losses.
A few questions.
Why is Memphis your CUSA rep? Should be UTEP or UAB. UTEP best record now.. and certainly projects at it.
Can't put CSU in without beating either BYU/SDSU at home. Who have they beat? Ole Miss? UNLV? Sam Houston State and Hampton. Come on bro!
Washington State? 26 point loss to Oregon. Unacceptable.
Gonzaga in your last 4 out? How is that possible?
Michigan State has free fallen. Will probably beat PSU on Thursday.. still think they should be in over CSU or Washington State.
I would have put Mich State, ODU and New Mexico in. It's a sloppy bracket week this week because it was such a bad week.
Cincinnati is much closer to the bubble than you suspect. Also, Harvard will beat Princeton in their 2nd matchup in Cambridge forcing a one game playoff which Harvard will win. Georgetown deserves to be a 2 seed and Florida a 3 seed.
St. Mary's has is only three spots higher on the S-curve than FSU, so there isn't much difference between the two teams. We give the Gaels a slight edge because they have a good chance at winning out, while FSU still has to go to Maryland and play UNC at home. St. Mary's also has a 20-point RPI edge.
Illinois has one more Top 50 win than FSU, and while FSU has the best win of the bunch, Illinois best two wins (Wisconsin and UNC) are better than FSU's (Duke and BC).
UTEP is in first place, but we think Memphis is the best team in C-USA, so we gave them the auto bid.
We aren't 100% sold on Colorado State either, but they should be able to finish 11-5 in the fourth best league in the country, which will give them a good chance at a bid.
Big Baylor fan here....happy to see them in your latest bracket, but I am a little surprised.
Did you place them here because you feel that they are deserving of a spot right now, or because you think they will be there with the opportunities remaining on their schedule? (The old, "if the tourney were today" question)
As for Baylor vs. OSU....take a look at conference record and head to head...
We considered keeping ODU is because of their OOC resume, but ultimately decided against it because they are already two games behind George Mason and VCU in conference and we think they'll lose at VCU this weekend.
Baylor's inclusion in the bracket is based on how we think they will do down the stretch. We think they can get to 9-7 in conference, which will put them in the mix for an at-large.
We have Baylor in over Oklahoma State (despite a 30 point RPI edge for the Cowboys) because Baylor is a game better in conference, has a head-to-head win, and because Oklahoma State can't win on the road. They've lost their last five road games, and they have to play three of their next four on the road (at Nebraska, at Texas, vs. A&M, at Kansas).
Amazing that Georgia keeps their bid week after week. Not criticizing B101 -- Georgia deserves the bid at this point -- rather criticizing the rest of the NCAA for not stepping up and taking it.
That all said, I could see them going 2-6 the rest of the way if they do not win this next match-up with the re-energized Xavier Musketeers.
So the question is, what is, finally their breaking point? Will a home win over Xavier (which will probably now rank as their best OOC win - best now home v. Colorado and @GaTech not looking so good), combined with road win v. any one of FLA, TN or Bama be enough? Will .500 in SEC be enough? Does it all come down to SEC tourney?
They just seem to be doing it with smoke and mirrors (and I live in GA) and I am wondering when midnight strikes, if at all. Thanks.
Fine. But when illinois goes 0-2 this week and florida State goes 2-0, I reserve the right to say I told you so.
Deal.
If Georgia beats Xavier tomorrow and finishes 9-7 in conference, they should be in decent shape. The swing game is Vandy at home next week. The Bulldogs have already lost close games to Florida and Tennessee in Athens, so they can't afford to miss out on this opportunity against the Commodores. If they lose that game, they'll have some work to do on the road to stay on the right side of the bubble.
Hi guys, what's you take on Minnesota? What will they have to do moving forward?
Despite three straight losses, Minnesota is safe for now. They'll be in if they can finish 10-8 in conference, and they might be OK at 9-9 depending on who they beat down the stretch.
Is Penn State back in with wins over MSU and NW?
Obviously Michigan is out of the bracket now, but with 2 winnable games this week they could be at 16-10 and 6-7 in conference, with a strength of schedule at 11, if they were to finish at 19-12 and 9-9 would they be dancing?
Penn State might be able to sneak back in with a 2-0 week depending on what happens elsewhere on the bubble. The problem long-term for the Nittany Lions, though, and a reason we might still keep them out with a 2-0 week, is that their schedule is very tough the rest of the way and there's a very good chance they finish with 14 losses. That's not going to get the job done, even with the bubble as weak as it is.
We discussed Michigan a lot this week, actually. Their 4-7 mark in conference is ugly, but they do have a season sweep of Penn State on their resume now and their schedule isn't all that hard the rest of the way. The Wolverines' biggest problem is their lack of an OOC resume. They are probably going to need to win at Illinois or at Minnesota and finish 10-8 to offset their OOC woes.
Michigan's non-conference wasn't that bad. They lost two close games to Syracuse and Kansas, plus a loss to a bubble team in UTEP. Harvard is right on the cusp of the top 50 RPI, Clemson and Oakland are both decent teams. It's not great, but it's not Penn St or Alabama bad.
I think they'd have a decent case at 9-9 with a win in the Big 10 tournament with the bubble looking so weak right now. Getting there is a long shot, but if they do, they'll probably have swept Michigan St along with Penn St, plus added at least one quality win.
@DavidATL Georgia definitely deserves to be in more so than anyone else. RPI in the top 40. Good SOS and 0 bad losses. Georgia only has 1 problem... they love to play down to their opponents' level. They will squeak by Auburn and then they'll play with Notre Dame. This team is trying their best not to separate themselves and want each and every game to come down to the last possession. Awful to watch if you'e a Dawgs fan. Same will happen with Xavier... that game won't be won until the last minute.
The bottom line is that Michigan needs Top 50 wins. Michigan State is at 50 today, but they probably won't be there for long given the way they've played lately. And as nice as Michigan's sweep of Penn State is, those wins aren't Top 50 wins either. That's why beating Wisconsin at home and then winning at Illinois or at Minnesota is imperative if Michigan wants an at-large.
For Michigan, nobody who is 3-7 in conference should even be mentioned to be on the bubble. Shouldn't matter your SOS. Ole Miss should have a better shot at making the Big Dance than Michigan.
If Cincinnati can have a 2-0 week (at depaul, home vs. st johns), should they start to feel pretty "safe" about getting a bid, as they would sit at 20-5, (7-5). Doubling up on St John's would be huge. I cant imagine if they finish with a similar Big East record that SJU would go over Cincinnati.
@derek.slimmon
That is exactly my point. Yes, UGA should be in now -- no bad losses, winning record in SEC East, 16-6 overall. But looking at their upcoming schedule . . . Sure, they could easily go 6-2, but they could also go 2-6 -- or anywhere in between. Their clear problem is lack of marquee wins. Home win over Kentucky and then, what? Colorado? UAB? GaTech? Not a huge margin of error here.
I think B101 is right -- need to defend home court (X, Vandy, SC, LSU) and need 1 road win (Bama, FLA, USC, Kent.) to feel safe. 1 slip-up from that formula, well, maybe. 2 becomes problematic.
I am just not feeling loads of warms or fuzzies at the moment.
oops, sorry. Meant TN, not KY in UGA away schedule.
UGA's problem is their defense isn't that great and they need someone other than Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins to step up on a consistent basis.
And Michigan is 4-7 in conference play, not 3-7. They're shooting better from 3 now than at any other point in John Beliein's tenure, with a team that includes 4 freshmen in the rotation. That being said, they should beat NW and IU at home this week before we even talk about them being on the bubble. If they do get there though, let's not forget they did something no ACC team has accomplished thus far this season: won @ Clemson.
@AG Georgia's D has been playing pretty well this year holding teams to around 65 ppg. And Thompkins & Leslie have been very inconsistent lately hence why Price, Robinson & Ware have been carrying the load as of late. Price had 22pts/14rebs against Auburn... only reason we won. Silly turnovers have caused us quite a few points.
Looks like you can *definitely* say Baylor is in ahead of OK State now: Starting forward Darnell Williams charged with felony sexual assault this morning.
Cincinnati really needs to beat St. John's at home to like their at-large chances going forward. Their schedule is pretty difficult the rest of the way, and they can not afford a home loss to another Big East bubble team.
A sweep of St. John's would put the Bearcats ahead of the Red Storm in the very crowded Big East pecking order. Cincinnati can't match (and probably won't be able to match) St. John's in terms of quality wins, so they would at least have a head-to-head sweep to fall back on if it came down to those two for the last Big East spot. If that scenario unfolded, the Big East tournament will likely be the deciding factor.
Alabama has a horrible rpi which should go up if they beat more quality teams on the road. I agree they aren't in yet, but think they will at the end of the year. Most likely the big east won't end up with 11 teams cause cincy, marq, or st. John's will lose too many games to these top big east teams.
I also hate the format of the 68. Why should the 64th and 63rd teams get a bye when the last four at large teams must play their way in? That's just crazy.
Who are some teams you guys see going far in the tournament ranging from the 1-7 seeds in your bracket.
I like UNLV, Washington, Mizzou, Tennessee as some sleepers this year as well as Kansas Texas and Ohio State being the top contenders. thoughts?
Yeah I see Washington as a big sleeper. They are struggling as of late but they are talented and will pick it up in March.
Another Big East team fails to hold serve at home...just thought I'd throw that out there.
In the 3-7 range, we like Georgetown, Florida, and Tennessee.
I don't think losing to the number 4 team in the country is failing to hold serve. Even without Ashton Gibbs, Pitt is a very good team.
What's the chances of UNM making the Tourney? They seem to have recovered from a mid season slump. Does finishing 11-5 or 10-6 in the MWC give them a shot or do they pretty much have to win the tourney at this point? Also, why are people so high on UNLV? Is it just b/c they beat Wisconsin? What other signature win do they have?
The quickest way for New Mexico to get back in the bracket is to beat Wyoming on Wednesday and then to beat Colorado State on the road on Saturday. That would give the Lobos a season sweep over the Rams to go along with their win over BYU. That resume would get them a spot in the bracket next week.
If they lose at Colorado State, they will probably have to win at SDSU or at BYU to be in good at-large position heading into the MWC tournament.
So although you guys have Baylor in over Oklahoma St you agree that Luinardi is wrong in doing the same since his bracket is if the season ended today. Correct? Kinda scary how similar your brackets are this week.
Ahem... It's actually 60 that get a bye, not 64.
If Maryland gets to 10-6 in the ACC and wins a game in the ACC tourney, does that get them in?
Geoff I think it'll be a close call if Maryland finishes 10-6 and wins 1 ACC tourney game. It'll probably depend on who they beat and what other teams do. I have Maryland 6th out right now (a bit higher than B101 and Lunardi). 21-10 (10-6) will leave them squarely on the bubble.
I have New Mexico as the 1st team out this week. If they can get to 10-6 in the Mountain West I think they'll be in decent shape. It'll mean 2 more wins against good teams. 9-7 is going to leave them wondering and will probably require a 1st round conference tourney victory (against the likes of UNLV or CSU).
If Cincinnati can get to 9-9 in the BE they should be in. 8-10 starts to get iffy.
Alabama's key number is 13. That is the number of conference wins (including the SEC Tourney) they will need to guarantee an at large bid. 12 total will leave them a question mark. Mark it down!
I agree with B101 that if Baylor can get the 9-7 in the B12 that puts them in the mix - but not necessarily in. I have OSU (4th out) ahead of Baylor (14th out) now, and I think if OSU can get to 8 conference wins, they'll be in the mix for sure.
Other comments. I think Clemson should be in the discussion. They are likely to finish 9-7 or 10-6 in conference and will have to be in the conversation. I also wonder when the Ivy League will start getting consideration for a 2nd bid. Soon, I think, if Harvard and Princeton both continue to win. Harvard has wins over Colorado and @BC. I disagree that Gonzaga should be in the discussion right now. I think they will need to run the table to have a legit shot at an at large. 10-4 in the WCC will probably not get it done.
Another guy for ivy league 2 bids!!! Brought that up a month or so ago when I saw them both play, but it got shot down by others immediatly. Obvioulsy for it to happen Harvard must win out and Princeton only lose at Harvard.
Princeton better pull this one out against Penn in OT if it wants an at-large.
If Maryland gets to 10-6 in the ACC and wins a game in the ACC tourney, does that get them in? http://bloguay.com/sanatesi740/
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