Saturday, February 12, 2011

B101's Questions For The Weekend

Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:

Saturday's Games
Ohio State is undefeated and Wisconsin is undefeated at home. What's gonna give?

Has anyone picked Ohio State to win this game?

Baylor made their first bracket appearance in weeks on Monday. Would a win at Texas keep them there for good?

If 'Nova can't trip up Pitt at home, is there really any chance that the Panthers don't win the Big East regular season title?

Is there any chance that SDSU or BYU loses a game before their much-anticipated rematch in San Diego? Is it OK that we are hoping that they don't?

Which Big East beast - Syracuse or Louisville - will avoid an 0-2 week and win their high noon battle?

Can Utah State afford to lose another game conference game and still manage to get an at-large bid?

If Florida keeps up their current run, how high can they climb? A 2 seed?

Who will be a higher seed after their match-up today, Vanderbilt or Kentucky?

Will Clemson beat Carolina and get the big win that their resume so desperately needs? If they do, will it be enough to vault them into the bracket?

Is Maryland's game at Boston College the biggest bubble battle of the day? Who needs to win this game more?

Will we be a week ahead of everyone in having Old Dominion out and VCU in this past week? Or will the Monarchs win and leave us a week behind?

If Michigan can hold court against Indiana, could the Wolverines actually make it into the bracket on Monday?

Alabama missed out on a huge opportunity against Vandy this week, but will a win over Mississippi and a soft remaining schedule get the Tide in next week's bracket anyway?

Does Georgia still deserve a bid if they lose at South Carolina?

Will Memphis' at-large hopes be destroyed with a loss to Southern Miss?

We don't really have any questions for Wazzu in regards to their match-up against Cal, except: who's going to replace the Cougars in Monday's bracket?

Will Oklahoma State finally win its first conference road game at Nebraska?

Who will win and be in the bracket on Monday: New Mexico or Colorado State?

Can Kansas State hold onto their spot in the bracket and win at Colorado?

Can Wichita State exact some revenge on Northern Iowa? More importantly, can anyone come up with a likely scenario in which the MVC gets two bids?

Sunday's Games
Illinois picked up a huge road win on Thursday over Minnesota. How far will their seed soar with a win over Purdue at home?

How far will the Gophers' seed fall if they slip up at Iowa and lose their fifth straight?

If Marquette manages to win at Georgetown and if Cincinnati completes a season sweep of St. John's, is there anyway the Big East does not get at least 10 bids?

Is Duquense's home game against Xavier the biggest make-or-break game for any one team this weekend? Can the Dukes win and prove once and for all that they are a legitimate at-large candidate?


BracketologyMAGIK said...

Hi, guys just wanted you guys to look at my bracket and see what you think.

Michael said...

Who does need that win more in the BC-UMD game?

Bracketology 101 said...

Its a push, tough to see either team making the tourney without this win based on the schedules that each has left.

Anonymous said...

Even as a Florida fan, I can't see the Gators reaching a 2-seed; 3 at best. We still have trips to Rupp Arena and Memorial Gymnasium that I am NOT confident in despite our road record.

BracketologyMAGIK said...

Is Maryland Done? What about CLemson?

I think Maryland is screwed but Clemson has a very small chance.

Ross said...

How unlucky can my cats be? We are seriously the exact opposite of Florida, can't win a single close one.

Anonymous said...

Wow, Old Domininion handled VCU on the road.

give me the brandy said...

Clemson could still get to 10-6 in the ACC, all their games are winnable except for the game at Duke. I think they'd be in if they do that and win a tournament game.

Maryland is in deep trouble, they have to go at least 5-1 in their last 6 and pick up a win or two in the ACC tournament. They still don't have a top 50 win, so the game at UNC is probably a must win. Their chances are slim at this point.

Anonymous said...

The com cast center will make a great venue for the cbi

Anonymous said...

Is Michigan going to be in your field this week. This is is getting hot at the right moment.

Will said...

Maryland will obviously make the NIT if not the tournament, and michigan should start beating good teams pretty quickly if they want to make it. 10 losses and no good wins spells N-I-T to me.

Anonymous said...

Will michigan makes it if they finish 9 and 9 in conference

Anonymous said...

I realy think Alabama is going to make the tournament now. Their remaining games are @LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, @Ole Miss, @Florida, Georgia. I expect them to do no worse than 4-2 in that stretch. Does anyone honestly think a team that goes 12-4 in the SEC is not making the tournament?

Look at Kentucky in 2008. They went 6-7 out of conference, including that awful loss to Gardner-Webb, then went 12-4 in SEC play and snuck into the tournament as an 11 seed.

The precedent is there, and I fully expect the committee to include Alabama in the field, bad computer numbers and all, if they get to 12 conference wins.

Anonymous said...

2008 Kentucky:
Record: 18-13 (12-4 SEC)
RPI: 61
SOS: 24
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-8
Losses outside RPI Top 100: 1

2011 Alabama (going into today, Warren Nolan has been down all day):
Record: 15-8 (7-2 SEC)
RPI: 94
SOS: 127
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
Losses outside RPI Top 100: 4

So you're talking a 16-8 (8-2) team with an RPI of about 85 after today. They have 2 more shots at Top 50 wins in Florida and Georgia, and potentially could gain 1 (2 including today's win) more if Ole Miss sneaks into the Top 50.

Biggest difference between the two cases was that Kentucky's overall SOS was much harder than Alabama's. You're right, the precedent is there for a team with an RPI in the 60's to sneak in. But I think that is best case scenario for them. They won't secure an at-large bid anytime soon with those computer numbers, no matter what their conference record is.

Bracketology 101 said...

Maryland's in a lot of trouble right now. They are going to have to go 5-1 down the stretch and win at North Carolina to get back in the mix heading into the ACC tourney. Clemson is in a little bit better shape than Maryland, but not by much. They need to finish 4-1 down the stretch, and that's going to be tough with three road games (including a game at Duke) left.

ODU will replace VCU in the bracket on Monday.

Michigan is playing well right now, but they aren't worthy of an at-large just yet. There's still a better chance they finish 8-10, and not 9-9, with the schedule they have left.

BracketologyMAGIK said...

.1 seconds pretty much ends Kansas States season.

Anonymous said...

Is Butler creeping back towards consideration after a 3-0 week? Somewhere between 5th-8th team out?

Bracketology 101 said...

People may not like it, but it's very, very hard for us to believe that a 12-4 SEC team would get left out of a 68-team field.

If Alabama keeps winning, and gets to 12-4, they're going to get in.

NovaNation said...

Jim Burr must retire now. It's time to go.

give me the brandy said...

Any chance Pitt is the number one overall seed in the next bracket? Nobody has a more impressive set of victories. They now have 6 RPI top 25 wins, including 4 away from home. Ohio St has just 2 top 25 wins, and Kansas only has one.

Anonymous said...

If Chris Singleton is lost for the season will FSU still get in at 11-5 with a loss in the first round of the ACC Tourney?

Bracketology 101 said...

Losses don't get much more brutal than Kansas State's loss tonight. Not only did the Wildcats think they won the game (only to find out they didn't), but they also might have seen their at-large hopes go up in smoke. They're now seventh in the Big XII pecking order, behind Baylor (who they trail by a game and a half in conference) and Colorado (who beat them twice). They'll need to go at worst 4-2 down the stretch to get a bid, and that's going to be a tough task with games against Kansas, Missouri, and Texas left.

Bracketology 101 said...

Yes, Pitt has a very good chance to be the top overall seed on Monday.

Terrible break for the 'Noles tonight. We'll have to see how long they will be without Singleton before we give any long-term seed projections, but if they get to 11-5 (Singleton or no Singleton), they'll get a bid regardless of what they do in the ACC tourney.

At best, Butler will be the 7th or 8th team out next week.

mike said...

The 1's - Ohio State, Texas, Pitt, Kansas
The 2's - Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Georgetown
The 3's - UConn, BYU, Wisconsin, Florida
The 4's - Villanova, Purdue, Louisville, North Carolina
The 5's - Syracuse, Missouri, Arizona, Vanderbilt
The 6's - Kentucky, WVU, Temple, Texas A&M
The 7's - Washington, Illinois, Xavier, St. Mary's
The 8's - Florida State, UCLA, St. Johns, George Mason
The 9's - UNLV, Tennessee, Utah State, Cincinnati
The 10's - Wichita State, Marquette, Minnesota, Old Dominion
The 11's - Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Richmond, Georgia
The 12's - Belmont, Boston College, Colorado State, Missouri State, Duquesne
The 13's - UTEP, Valparaiso, Princeton, Coastal Carolina
The 14's - Oakland, Fairfield, College of Charleston, Kent Sstate
The 15's - Murray State, Bucknell, Vermont, Montana
The 16's - Long Beach State, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, McNese State Hampton, Texas Southern

Last 4 In: Boston College, Colorado State, Missouri State, Duquesne
Last 4 Out: Washington State, Memphs, Baylor, New Mexico
Next 4 Out: UAB, Oklahoma State, Alabama, VCU
Grasping Straws: Maryland, Kansas State, Penn State, Clemson, Butler

Anonymous said...

Harvard and Princeton survive against Brown and Cornell - chances the Ivy League #2 gets an at-large bid?

Anonymous said...

Ha B101 still hasnt commented on ivy league thing, but i still cant believe Harvard came back from 24 point deficit to win. Princeton had a scare with Cornell too, kind of pathetic for both of em tonight but they still won.

Anonymous said...

yeah B101 what gives with avoiding the ivy league debate? two or one? harvard have enough for an atlarge if they win the rest but not the ivy?

jp23 said...

Has George Mason done enough now to be considered a lock...or do they have to sweep another week this week to get to the status??

Reggie Jackson said...

Can Boston College make the field at 9-7 in the ACC or do they need a first round ACC tourney win?

Will said...

Yeah, those crappy wins over vastly overmanned opponents unable to stay afloat in the terrible CAA really made a difference, I think... They aren't a lock, and probably need to win their last 4 to ensure a spot against a bad tournament showing.

Will said...

@anonymous... No. Harvard hasn't done anything. 2 top 100 RPI wins, 1 top 50, and no more chances to get top 50 wins, plus no conference tournament... If they lose again they are done, and I think they have to lose again to lose the auto bid

Bracketology 101 said...

Haha...we're not avoiding the Ivy issue at all. Just trying to get a little sleep.

It's still kind of a long shot, but the Ivy is closer to getting two bids now than they've ever been. For it to happen, Harvard and Princeton have to win out, and Princeton would have to win the one-game playoff that would decide the auto bid.(The Tigers don't have much of an at-large profile.)

If that scenario unfolds, it will be fascinating to see what the committee does. Will they reward a co-regular season small conference champ that had two decent OOC wins (especially for an Ivy League team)? Or will the Ivy's conference RPI (15) be too much for the committee to overlook? A lot will depend on what happens in conference tournaments across the country (bid stealers, etc.) and how Colorado and BC fare down the stretch. If those teams fade, Harvard's chances to get an at-large might fade with them.

Bracketology 101 said...

George Mason might be able to lock up a bid on Tuesday. If they win at VCU (like ODU just did), they'll win the Colonial regular season title, which is worthy of a bid.

If Mason loses to VCU, they'll have to win at Northern Iowa in their BracketBuster game this weekend and win their last two regular season games to feel comfortable heading into the Colonial tourney.

Bracketology 101 said...

If BC finishes 9-7, they'll have to win their first round ACC tourney game.

Anonymous said...

Seth Davis, through his twitter, says that FSU will have to work hard to get into the tourney now... What do you think?

Will said...

St. Johns has won just 4 out of their last ten games... Can we stop pretending they're the nxt coming?

Bracketology 101 said...

Davis is saying that because no one is sure how the 'Noles will fare without Singleton. They're safe for now, though.

Brian Reinthaler said...

ND is 5-0 against mike's 1-4 seeds, above, including road win @ Pitt and neutral win over Wisconsin.

If ND goes 4-1, winning @ WVU and home against Nova and losing the finale @ UConn, then wins 1 game in the BET, are they a lock for a 2-seed?

Peter said...

How come the schools from the west get no love? I know that the schools that dominate out here are Washington, arizona, and San Diego st. I know ucla is a shoe in, and byu will probably get a 3 seed at worse. St. Mary will be a threat in the big dance. What about washington state and gonzaga?

Anonymous said...

Washington State can't do any worse than 3-2 in its final 5 games. It'd help if the Cougars can pick up a win @ Arizona or @ Washington, and they could probably use a win in the PAC 10 Tournament.

Gonzaga probably needs to finish at least 4-1 in the regular season and then win a WCC Tournament semifinal game.

Anonymous said...

@ Will-

Princeton was RPI #51 as of yesterday, so Harvard still has a shot at another Top-50 win.

Will said...

I highly doubt that princeton will be able to jump into the top 50 since their sos will drop and drop and drop as they keep playing terrible teams. Plus, if they lose to harvard, setting up the one game playoff, they definitely won't be there.

Anonymous said...

Tough loss for Cincinnati at home against St. John's.

Anonymous said...

Marquette loses by 9 @ Georgetown and Illinois loses by 11 at home against Purdue.

Purdue: 20-5, 9-3 Big Ten
Illinois: 16-9, 6-6 Big Ten
Georgetown: 20-5, 9-4 Big East
Marquette: 15-10, 6-6 Big East

Bracketology 101 said...

Brian - Notre Dame would get a 2 seed if that scenario unfolds.

It's not any "East Coast bias" that's keeping Washington State and Gonzaga out; those teams just aren't at-large worthy right now. Washington State still has a chance to get back in, but the Cougars will have to solve their problems on the road and finish at worst 3-2 down the stretch. They'll also have to win at least a game in the Pac-10 tourney. Gonzaga needs at worst a 4-1 finish and a trip to the WCC final.

Cincinnati will likely be on the 11 line tomorrow.

BracketologyMAGIK said...

^About two weeks ago you said that if Gonaga lost either of their games against St. Mary's or Memphis they would have to win out until the WCC Final. They lost both and now they only need to go 4-1 how is that? Who have they beat? And other than them and St. Mary's the WCC is garbage.

Bracketology 101 said...

Gonzaga hasn't lost "both" of those games yet. They've only played one of them - and lost to Memphis.

A lot has changed in the two weeks since we made those comments. A 4-1 finish might still not be enough to get Gonzaga in, but it has a better chance of getting them in than it did two weeks ago. The bubble is getting softer by the day and it seems that everyday, 1 or 2 teams play their way off of it. If Gonzaga wins out and gets to the WCC final, they're likely going to get in. If they lose to St. Mary's, finish 4-1, and make the final, they'll be one of the last teams in or out on Selection Sunday.

Anonymous said...

Magik, the fact that we've been talking about the at-large charges of Ivy League(!) teams should indicate that the bubble as a whole is garbage. If a team in the large and amorphus mass of mediocre teams puts together a solid winning streak, it has a good chance of favorable attention in the bubble, simply because winning would distinguish any team from its pitiful peers.

Anonymous said...

Aaaaaand Duquesne can't pull off a win at home against Xavier.

Anonymous said...

At what point does Tennessee enter the bubble discussion. They already have 10 losses with trips to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, plus home games against Florida and Georgia, still on the schedule. Not to mention the SEC tournament. Could this team break the record for most losses still getting an invite (14+)?

Anonymous said...

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Tennessee is done with Florida now and gets Kentucky at home.

BracketologyMAGIK said...

My bad I was think of their first game against St. Mary's. But still who have they beat.

Anonymous said...

Gonzaga has beaten Xavier, @Baylor, and Marquette, so it's not like they have fattened up their resume playing the little sisters of the weak here. Winning @St. Mary's would be a biggie though.

BracketologyMAGIK said...

^ok you win I sound dumb

mag900 said...

Tennessee has beaten Pitt and Villanova. Not too many teams can boast having 2 wins against top 7 teams. With that being said, they want to get around to winning a few more games.

Anonymous said...

"St. Mary will be a threat in the big dance. "

What? They have lost to BOTH BYU and SD ST? AND they can't win a road game to save their life?

If you can't beat teams from the Mountain West, then I wouldn't expect St Mary's to do too much in the big dance...?

Anonymous said...

Besides the fact that BYU and SDSU are both good, the losses were only by 1 at a neutral site and by 14 on the road. Also, the Gaels are 6-3/3-1 on the road/at neutral sites this year. Ask Villanova if they're a threat.

Bracketology 101 said...

SDSU and BYU aren't exactly your typical Mountain West teams...

Anonymous said...

Gophers needed that win today at Iowa badly. Are they looking at a 8 a 9 or 10 seed tommorrow?

Bracketology 101 said...

Probably a low 8 for Minnesota.