Monday, January 31, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - Jan. 31

Just when we thought the bracket couldn't get harder to put together...this past weekend happened. On what was easily the two craziest days of the season, a total of 13 ranked teams lost (13!), with nine of those teams losing to unranked opponents. These results - somehow - had very little effect on the bubble, but they had an enormous impact on how the bracket was seeded.

This week's field features a new 1 seed (UConn, which got the nod over red-hot Texas thanks to their head-to-head win over the Longhorns in Austin), two new 2 seeds (Duke and Notre Dame), and a new 3 seed (Georgetown). There were a bunch of teams that jumped up two or three lines this week (Louisville, Tennessee, North Carolina, and St. John's) and several teams that fell two or three lines (Villanova, Syracuse, Illinois, Florida State, Washington, Georgia, and UCLA).

Only two at-large bids changed hands this week, as Penn State and Duquesne replaced Oklahoma State and Wichita State. The Cowboys were an easy removal after an 0-2 week, but taking out Wichita (after a 2-0 week) was a little more difficult. Unfortunately for the Shockers, Northern Iowa's win at Missouri State on Sunday makes it increasingly likely that the Missouri Valley is going to be a one-bid league. As is the case in many other mid-major conferences across the country (see: Conference USA, Horizon), parity is killing the MVC. No one team or two teams are pulling away from the pack, and all of the league's contenders are beating up on each othe on a weekly basis. In Wichita's case, UNI now has a better overall resume (road wins at Wichita and Missouri State and an OOC win over New Mexico), and Missouri State has a slight edge over the other two for the MVC automatic.

Penn State made the Big Ten a seven-bid league this week thanks to their win Saturday over Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions have eight losses and a tough road schedule left, but they now have three quality wins in conference, which is good enough - for the moment - to get a bid. Our other addition to the field this week was Duquesne. We admit we are still not believers in the Dukes, but we can't ignore the fact that by the end of this week they should be 9-0 in the A-10. They have just one Top 50 win on the season (Temple), but with this weak bubble, that's sadly enough to get a spot on the 12 line. Our final at-large bid this week went to Gonzaga, despite the Zags' terrible computer numbers (88 RPI) and their two-game deficit in the WCC standings. Their decent OOC resume is saving them at this point and is keeping them in over a team like Colorado State that has just one quality win. That said, Gonzaga will still need to win at Portland and at home against Memphis this week to stay in.

One other notable change to the bracket this week was Cleveland State replacing Butler as the Horizon automatic. Cleveland State probably deserves better than a 13 given their strong computer numbers (29 RPI), but they still have no big wins and we aren't 100% sold that they are the best team in the league. They'll be able to earn that title this week with home games against Valparaiso and Butler.

We had to make one move to avoid seeding conflicts this week - Florida and Minnesota swapped spots on the 5 and 6 lines.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Washington State, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Gonzaga

First Four Out
Colorado State, Maryland, UAB, Baylor

Next Four Out
Kansas State, Butler, Northern Iowa, George Mason

"First Four" Games
Washington State vs. Virginia Tech, Duquesne vs. Gonzaga, Austin Peay vs. Hampton, Jackson State vs. McNeese State

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big Ten (7), ACC (5), SEC (5), Big XII (4), A-10 (4), Pac-10 (4), MWC (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Maine

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Temple, Xavier, Richmond, Duquesne

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Louisville, West Virginia, St. John's, Cincinnati, Marquette

Big Sky - Montana

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - VCU, Old Dominion

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Cleveland State

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - Fairfield

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Hampton

MVC - Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State, BYU, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - Washington, Arizona, UCLA, Washington State

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia

Southern - Charleston

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic

SWAC - Jackson State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - St. Mary's, Gonzaga

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Connecticut

The 2s
Texas, Duke, Notre Dame, San Diego State

The 3s
BYU, Kentucky, Georgetown, Texas A&M

The 4s
Missouri, Purdue, Villanova, Louisville

The 5s
Syracuse, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Florida

The 6s
Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina

The 7s
Washington, Illinois, Temple, Xavier

The 8s
UNLV, Florida State, St. John's, Michigan State

The 9s
St. Mary's, Arizona, Cincinnati, Boston College

The 10s
Marquette, Utah State, Old Dominion, Penn State

The 11s
Missouri State, Georgia, VCU, UCLA

The 12s
Memphis, Richmond, Washington State vs. Virginia Tech (FF), Duquesne vs. Gonzaga (FF)

The 13s
Cleveland State, Belmont, Princeton, Charleston

The 14s
Oakland, Kent State, Coastal Carolina, Fairfield

The 15s
Montana, Long Beach State, Bucknell, Florida Atlantic

The 16s
Maine, Long Island, Austin Peay vs. Hampton (FF), Jackson State vs. McNeese State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















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46 comments:

Matt said...

I really don't see how you include Penn St. over MD. MD beat them on their home court by 23 points. MD has a slight advantage in overall record, they're both 1 game over .500 in their conference. MD has no bad losses on their resume, all 7 teams that beat them are in the bracket and all were single digit losses. Penn St. lost to Maine at home which is a really bad loss, I don't care what their record is in the America East, you can not lose that game if you're a bubble team.

For Penn St. to be put in over MD, you got to give me more than just a few good home wins. Michigan St. is not a great win anymore, as they are now losing at home to Michigan and Indiana. Beating Ill and Wisconsin are good wins, but I just don't think its enough to include them in over MD, especially since MD destroyed them on their home court.

Early Onions said...

Disagree, Matt. And I say this as a lifelong Maryland fan: the Terps pass the eye test, but the resume isn't there yet. Plenty of chances left on the schedule for the Terps to get off the bubble: vs Duke, at VT, at BC, at UNC.

Penn State's two possessions away from a six game win streak (that would have included wins at Ohio State and Purdue). They're far removed from that loss to Maine.

And to be fair: Maryland's had their fair share of disappointing early-season OOC losses in previous years. Remember AU? Remember Morgan State? Bad losses happen, but Penn State's proven that they're worthy of their place on the right side of the bubble.

For now, at least.

Anonymous said...

why are you using bad OOC losses from past years as a knock against MD THIS year? they are completely irrelevant to this year. the fact that you think they matter makes me just ignore everything else you write.

Matt said...

Something tells me Early Onions is not a MD fan and either a Penn St. or Big Ten fan. What has happened in the past is completely irrelevant in this year's discussion. The point is MD has no bad losses, whereas Penn St. does. MD absolutely destroyed PSU head to head. With 2 teams pretty even, that has to be the deciding factor.

Stone said...

I can understand taking Wichita State out of the bracket, even after a 2-0 week, but then they're not even one of the first eight teams out? They've fallen over nine spots? Or were they projected as the automatic bid in last week's edition, and MO State had an at-large?

There is no doubt that Wichita State has a tough schedule ahead (their four remaining road games in the Valley are against teams with winning records--UNI, MO State, Indiana State, and Evansville), but they have to be in the discussion for a bid, right?

Bracketology 101 said...

Maryland's head-to-head win over Penn State is nice, but that doesn't mean the Terps have a better overall resume than the Nittany Lions. That win is Maryland's only Top 50 win to date, while Penn State has three Top 50 wins (a significant difference). Penn State's 's RPI is also 24 points better than Maryland's (46 vs. 70).

The Terps need one more big win to get a bid. Beating Duke on Wednesday would do the trick.

Bracketology 101 said...

If we did a First Ten Out list (instead of a First Eight Out), Wichita State would be on it. What really hurt Wichita's at-large resume was Northern Iowa's win at Missouri State on Sunday. Wichita now has the third best resume in the Missouri Valley behind Missouri State and UNI. The MVC isn't getting three bids, so that left Wichita just outside the First Eight Out.

Anonymous said...

Assuming a loss @Pitt this Saturday, Cinci will fall to 18-5(5-5). Will that push Cinci out of the bracket?

Anonymous said...

I think the answer is that the committee is not looking for the best teams, but the most accomplished. If we were looking for the best teams, we wouldn't be talking about the missouri valley getting two, or the mountain west getting four, or cleveland state getting in.

Bracketology 101 said...

Cincinnati will still be in if they lose at Pitt, but they'll be a double-digit seed.

Anonymous said...

How does losing at a one-seed hurt your seeding? Don't you project they'll lose? I kind of always figured your method accounted for what you thought would happen in the future, so that only unexpected results changed things...

Kevin said...

I'm curious as to how far both Alabama and Clemson are off the radar.

I know they don't have a tournament-worthy resume yet, as both have early bad losses that they haven't overcome yet. However, both are slowly chalking up wins, and though most of those are over mediocre or bad teams, each has a very good win (Clemson over FSU; Alabama over Kentucky).

Like I said, I don't see either of them as "in" yet, but I'm surprised that neither is on the radar when a team like Butler is (and I say that as a longtime mid-major supporter).

Bracketology 101 said...

Cincinnati might end up staying on the 9 line, but since they only have one game this week and it's a likely loss, they could get passed on the S-curve by teams ranked below them. If Marquette and St. John's have good weeks, the Bearcats could also end the week as the Big East's 11th team, which would also drop them off the 9 line.

Clemson was our ninth team out this week. Their win over Florida State was definitely a step in the right direction, but that was also their first quality win. If the Tigers can survive two tricky road games at Virginia and at Georgia Tech this week, they have home games against North Carolina and BC next week which, if they win, could get them on the right side of the bubble.

Alabama's win over Kentucky is still overshadowed by some bad losses and poor computer numbers (116 RPI). The also have the disadvantage of playing in the SEC West, which doesn't offer many chances for quality wins. If they can continue to win their home games and pull an upset at Vandy, Tennessee, or Florida, then they'll be in the discussion.

Bracketology 101 said...

Butler's obviously in a lot of trouble in terms of an at-large, but they're ahead of Clemson and Alabama right now because of their OOC wins over Florida State and Washington State.

Evan said...

For the Maryland vs PSU discussion, head-to-head is not as important as the overall body of work. Maybe Maryland should be in, but not at the cost of PSU.

B101, how does Lunardi have PSU out but you have them as a ten seed. As a PSU fan, I'm pretty pissed at him now. A two win week should get us ranked, and a 1-1 week should put us back squarely on the bubble right?

Anonymous said...

ALABAMA?!?!?! Lunardi has Alabama winning the SEC? Is he retarded? Not Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, or Tennessee... No, lets go with one of the bottom feeders on a yearly basis...That makes sense.

Joe said...

@ Anon 1:55 - Glockner has Alabama as the SEC auto bid too. I understand they have the best conference record but that is just being intellectually dishonest.

@ Anon 11:38 - That was something Bilas talked a little about this weekend. He said over the past few years they committee has favored the 'who is a better team?' approach over 'who is more accompished?'. I suppose that is something that cahnges depending on the committee members.

Anonymous said...

Picking the team with the best conference record to win the league is just dumb... Alabama winning the SEC? Last week it was Ball State winning the MAC... Cmon now Lunardi is just lazy... Put a little common sense behind your bracket, this is your job.

edgeinducedcohesion said...

Lunardi is a homer. Isn't it a little too early to be including a "bid stealer" like Alabama in your bracket?

AG said...

Frankly, I think its entirely possible Alabama wins the SEC's automatic bid. They will easily win the SEC West #1 seed for the conference tournament, which gives them a first round bye and a softer road to the final. They've already beaten Kentucky, and considering Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida just got dominated by the SEC West this week there's very little reason to believe the SEC East is much better than the West.

As far as PSU, I agree with the Maryland fans: Penn State's at-large hopes died the day they lost to Maine.

And if the Selection Committee decides to go with who is the more accomplished team over who is the better team this year, its probably because there aren't any "good" teams anymore. Everybody in the country is one bad shooting night from losing to anyone. Even undefeated OSU allowed a terrible defensive and rebounding team in NW to dominate the glass and dictate tempo against them.

Bracketology 101 said...

We have no idea how Lunardi can have Penn State out and we have absolutely no clue how he can Kansas State (Kansas State?!), Butler, and Wichita State in over them. His bracket is an absolute mess this week...we'll address all of our issues with it in our Questions For The Competition, which will be posted tonight.

We've written thousands of words about this topic over the last five years, but having Alabama in as an automatic bid is exactly why brackets that are put together as if the season ended today don't work. Lunardi isn't including Alabama as a "bid stealer," he's just being lazy and, as commenter Joe said, intellectually dishonest. Rather than make a tougher call about a team on the bubble, he throws Alabama in because they are the "conference leader" (at 5-1 with one good win, no OOC resume, and a 116 RPI). They aren't worthy of a bid, and Lunardi knows that. Just because he is following his own rules by including them doesn't make those rules logical.

We have a feeling Lunardi spends his weekends rooting for cases like this to happen, so he has an excuse to be lazy. We'd rather not take the easy way out.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Penn State doesn't get an at-large, it won't be because they lost to Maine. Their at-large chances will depend on how they do down they stretch in conference. If they finish 10-8, they're probably getting in.

Teams are allowed to have a bad loss. (Is Illinois done because they lost to UIC?) If those bad losses pile up, and there aren't enough big wins to overshadow them, then a team is in trouble. One hiccup - if you have quality wins elsewhere on your resume - is forgivable.

Anonymous said...

I'm at a loss for words for these comments and Lunardi's bracket...

AG, can you be a bigger SEC homer? The SEC East has 5 teams going to make the tourney, the West? 0.

Penn State lost to Maryland therefore Maryland should get in ahead of them? Hmm so by that reasoning Maine should be sitting pretty over Penn State as well? Lets talk when Maryland comes within 1 basket of beating the #1 team in the nation on their home court.

Alabama...
really? Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha lets talk again in 10 years.

Lunardi= 0 credibility

edgeinducedcohesion said...

Given the whole Alabama mess I wanted to see which other teams had padded their win-loss records by beating up on the little sisters of the weak. So, I decided to compile a list of teams that had thin resumes at the top but had piled up wins against lower ranked teams. Here goes:

Utah State: (0-2 against RPI top 50, 0 games against RPI 51-100, 10-0 against RPI 200+). The hero of cupcake scheduling.

Beltmont: (0-3 against RPI top 50, 0 games against RPI 51-100, 12-0 against RPI 200+).

Coastal Carolina: (0-2 against RPI top 100, 9-0 against RPI 200+).

Vermont: (0-2 against RPI top 100, 11-1 against RPI 200+).

American: (0-5 against RPI top 100, 13-1 against RPI 200+).

Long Island: (0-1 against RPI top 100, 13-1 against RPI 200+).

Wofford: (1-7 against RPI top 100, 10-1 against RPI 200+).

Compared to these illustrious schools, we have the record of Alabama: 1-5 against the RPI top 100, 8-0 against the RPI 200+.

When your profile is closer to a Wofford than that of a St. Johns (6-6 against RPI top 100, 2-1 against RPI 200+), you don't deserve an at large bid, not unless Wofford is on the bubble watch too.

Early Onions said...

@Matt: Sorry, to clarify my earlier OOC point:

Let's take 2009 Maryland. Beat Michigan State in Orlando. Lost to Gonzaga and Georgetown in the same tournament. Beat Michigan at home. Then lost to Morgan State. But followed it up later in the year with wins over UNC, at NCST, and vs Wake.

A team can overcome a bad loss OOC and still make the bracket. (The Terps got in as a 10 that year.) Big wins tend to overshadow bad losses. And Maryland's remaining schedule offers the Terps plenty of chances for big wins, including vs Duke, at VT, at BC and at UNC.

And, btw, to the Bracketology101 guys -- thanks for all your hard work. Sad to think we only get six more weeks of the bracket predictions until the real one comes out. (But hey! Only six weeks until the real one comes out!)

edgeinducedcohesion said...

Early Onions,

That's a good perspective. When it comes to picking bubble teams in a year like this one it's like looking for the average-looking girl at the ugly girl prom. There aren't going to be any supermodels there, but you still have to choose someone to go with.

All of the teams in the Bubble have some serious flaws--they have cupcake schedules or bad losses, or a lot of losses. So what? If they have big wins, they have a better overall resume than some team that had no achievements whatsoever. If Maryland takes care of business in conference and picks up another good win or two it will have enough good wins to justify a spot in the NCAA's. The same is true for teams like Penn State.

give me the brandy said...

If it was just one bad loss that could be excused, but PSU's lost to Maine, Ole Miss and Michigan, 3 teams not even close to the bubble. They've also lost to fellow ACC bubble teams Maryland and Va Tech. Penn St is just 1-5 on the road (with the win at Indiana).

I still don't think Penn St is ultimately going to end up in the tournament, due to their schedule. I see 5 games in their last 9 that they are going to be underdogs (at Minn, Ill, MSU, Wisc, home vs Ohio St) and one that's a toss-up (home vs Minnesota). They need to prove they can beat a decent team on the road and not lose any of their "easy" games (Northwestern twice, Michigan at home). They've been playing well recently, but it's going to be tough to go 5-4 in the last 9, and I think it's more likely they go 4-5. If they finish just 9-9 in conference they're probably in trouble unless they have a good Big 10 tournament.

Maryland, meanwhile, is 4-2 on the road, including the blow-out win at Penn St, and hasn't lost a game to a team that's not in the field right now (Va Tech and BC are their only "bubble" losses). Of their tough ACC games left (home vs Duke and FSU, at Va Tech, BC and UNC), I like their chances to win 2. They should win their other 4 conference games to get to 10-6 in ACC. That would be enough to get them in.

AG said...

I tried to make the case that the SEC sucks bad enough for Alabama to have a chance to win it and I'm an SEC homer?

Sounds to me like that poster is an SEC *EAST* homer who didn't like how I demonstrated the SEC East isn't as great as he thinks it is.

I'm not even saying any SEC West teams deserve an at-large, I'm just saying they are capable of beating SEC East teams on any given day. Combine that with what is sure to be a favorable draw for Alabama by virtue of winning the SEC's W1 seed and the fact that they have already beaten Kentucky, and its not that hard to see that Alabama has a chance for an automatic bid.

Anonymous said...

Personally I feel that 9-9 in big ten is better then 10-6 in ACC. Since their aint really that many good teams in ACC. Big Ten has 7 teams in RPI top 50 where ACC has only three.

Other than bubble team Penn St. Maryland has beaten no other at-large tournament teams. 2nd best win is at home vs Clemson and 3rd best is vs Charleston (RPI 95) Not deserving of a bid at all.

Yes Alabama has "a chance" to win SEC tournament but for that matter Auburn has "a chance" of winning the SEC tourney. But they are not the favorite or even close. They'll be underdogs playing against whoever finishes 4th in SEC East in their first game.

With all that being said.
Go Wofford!!!

Ross said...

People are putting way too much stock in Bama's win at home over Kentucky.

Sure, it was a great win, but Kentucky lost by 2 and played a horrible game. If people think that is going to translate into Bama having a good shot at winning the SEC tournament, then they are mistaken.

Bama has been great at home, but I fail to see how they will get by the East teams in a neutral site that will likely be filled by fans of SEC East teams.

Kris said...

Can someone explain to me how Wisconsin's schedule warrants a 5-seed? I'm an admittedly biased Minnesota fan, but their resume isn't any deeper than home wins over MN and IL.

edgeinducedcohesion said...

@Kris

Wins @Boston College and @Marquette don't count?

Plus, all 5 of the losses Wisconsin has are "good" losses: @UNLV, Notre Dame, @Illinois, @Michigan State, @Penn State.

Not that Minnesota has a bad resume by any means, despite a loss @Virginia, it has solid wins against Wofford, @North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue.

Anonymous said...

Kris,

Wisconsin has 5 losses, all to teams in the brackets all within a few points. They also have wins @ Marquette (game looking better and better) and Boston College who are also in the brackets to go with their wins over Illinois and Minnesota.

Bracketology 101 said...

We know everyone likes to compare one bubble team to another (ie. Penn State vs. Maryland), but at this point it is really about the resume you currently have and where a team will eventually end up. If Maryland beats some tourney teams down the stretch they will make the tournament.

Mike said...

Penn State has proven they can play with anyone. They lost to Purdue in West Lafayette with 3 seconds left. They are a good team. Has anyone commenting on them watched them lately? I thing Maryland is a good team as well. RIGHT NOW, Penn State has done more than Maryland so we aren't even at a head-to-head tiebreaker. All Penn State has to do is finish 5-4 and they'll be 10-8 in conference. Not easy with the schedule they have left, but not impossible either. Or, maybe they could go 4-5 and do well in the Big Ten Tournament.

Anonymous said...

Personally I feel that 9-9 in big ten is better then 10-6 in ACC. Since their aint really that many good teams in ACC. Big Ten has 7 teams in RPI top 50 where ACC has only three.

kenpom has 6 ACC teams in the top 50 (i find kenpom much more accurate than the silly rpi): duke (4), maryland (13), unc (21), clemson (29), va tech (31) and fsu (44).

kenpom has 7 B10 teams in the top 50: ohio st (1), wisconsin (8), purdue (9), illinois (18), mich st (38), minn (43) and penn st (46).

that looks pretty similar to me. the one big difference is that the ACC has horrific wake and the B10 doesn't have a team remotely as bad as wake.

edgeinducedcohesion said...

If Texas keeps on racking up marquee wins like a huge away stomping of Texas A & M tonight it's going to be hard to keep them off the 1 line.

Bracketology 101 said...

Agreed.

Anonymous said...

Ya ur kenpom thing has Maryland at 14. Thats realistic that their the 14th best team in the country. You take your kenpom rankings and i'll go with rpi as a somewhat decent way to rank teams.

Anonymous said...

What seed does Oakland top out at?

AG said...

"that looks pretty similar to me. the one big difference is that the ACC has horrific wake and the B10 doesn't have a team remotely as bad as wake."

In all fairness, the Big Ten has Iowa, which blew a halftime lead to Wake Forest.

Bracketology 101 said...

Oakland would probably top out at a 12.

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