Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:Saturday's Games
Will the Big East be down to a 9 bid league on Monday? If Marquette (vs. Syracuse on Saturday) and St. John's (vs. Duke on Sunday) both lose this weekend, it probably will be.
Can Northwestern shock the world and hand the Buckeyes their first loss?
Does UConn deserve a spot on the 1 line if they beat Louisville?
How awesome would it be if Thomas Robinson had a career day for the Jayhawks against Kansas State?
Can BYU avoid a SDSU hangover and beat New Mexico in The Pit?
What could Jimmer Fredette possibly do for an encore?
Has any team looked better over the last 10 days than Texas? Can the Longhorns picked up a fourth straight quality win by beating Missouri?
Can Pitt and Texas A&M fight off the upset bug that has run rampant throughout the power conferences this week and win at Rutgers and at Nebraska?
Does San Diego State stay on the 2 line with a win at home over Wyoming?
Can Villanova avoid an 0-2 week and beat Georgetown at home?
Can St. Mary's avoid a letdown after their thriller against Gonzaga and win what should be a tough game at Portland?
Which side of the bubble do the Zags deserve to be on? Will a decent OOC resume and a pillow-soft bubble be enough to keep them in next week?
Is Penn State worthy of an at-large if they beat Wisconsin?
Can Kentucky exact some revenge on Georgia? Can Purdue do the same to Minnesota?
Will Florida State pass a tricky road test at Clemson?
Does Richmond deserve to be the lowest-seeded A-10 team if they beat Xavier?
Will the loser of the Colorado-Baylor game ever be heard from again?
Assuming they both win on Saturday, who should be higher on the S-curve - Florida or Vandy?
Can UCLA get back on track after losing pretty easily to Arizona on Thursday? Should the Bruins stary in the bracket if they lose to the woeful Sun Devils?
Does the Horizon deserve two bids? If Butler wins at Valpo and Cleveland State wins at Loyola (IL), that might be the case on Monday.
Does C-USA deserve two bids? If Memphis wins at Marshall and UAB wins at UCF, that might be the case on Monday, too.
Will Oklahoma State ever win a road game in conference?
Can Cincinnati get its first win over a tourney-caliber Big East team?
Can Colorado State stay on the bubble and get a road win at Utah?
With the bubble so weak right now, does Utah State have a legitimate shot at an at-large if they need it? Can the Aggies run their current win streak to 15 at Hawaii on Saturday?
Sunday's Games
Can Washington State save its spot in the bracket and knock off Washington in Pullman?
Is Duquesne for real? If the Dukes beat Dayton at home, and add a second quality win to their resume, we'll start taking them seriously.
Will Virginia Tech bounce back from their bad road loss at Georgia Tech and beat Miami at home?
Can Missouri State take care of a visiting Northern Iowa team that has already beaten Wichita State on the road?
Is Maryland ready to climb back into the bracket? They can start by winning a not-so-easy road game at Georgia Tech.
66 comments:
JIMMER!
Why would Utah State with already a 3 game lead in the WAC need an at large bid? And with a 38 RPI (granted no quality wins but only losses @BYU and @GTown) how is that even a valid question?
Utah State, in my opinion, is always a controversial topic come tournament time. Stew Morrill has to be the only mid-major coach who thinks he's entitled to not have to schedule tough non conference road games.
If I recall correctly, their game @ Georgetown wasn't just their only road game west of the Mississippi, but their only road game west of the *Rockies*.
And so, every year Utah State ends up 26-2 with 0 RPI Top 100 wins and due to its lack of preparation for road games, loses in the semifinal of the WAC Tournament to New Mexico State or Nevada yet the selection committee is forced to decide if their huge win total is enough to overcome their godawful scheduling. Who can forget that fateful year in 2006 when Utah State and Air Force received at larges over Michigan and Cinci because the selection committee wanted "geographical distribution." I think Billy Packer is still fuming over it.
The question about Utah State is assuming they don't win the WAC tournament.
Utah State is going to be a very interesting call (again) for the committee because of the reasons AG mentioned. They're going to have 2-4 losses, a top 40 (or so) RPI, and a max of 1-2 Top 100 wins. With the bubble as soft as it is right now, that might be enough for an at-large.
Weird, that all cleveland state has to do is beat loyola to get in the bracket, yet st. Johns has to beat duke...
well its the fact that St. John's would have a two loss week and Cleveland State has been on a constent rise.
If UConn and Pitt both win this weekend, I'd still give Pitt the edge due to their one game lead in conference and 15 point head-to-head victory. Their resumes to this point are very similar.
I think Gonzaga does not deserve to be in the field next week, they should aslo be very wary of their trip to Portland next week.
Penn St still has a long way to go, even if they beat Wisc. Even if they win, I don't see them getting to 10-8 in conference, which they need at a bare minimum. Their early losses to Ole Miss and Maine are killing them.
Baylor should win to stay in the discussion. Colorado will be completely gone from consideration with a loss.
I like the Dukes against Dayton. If they win this one and the next two (GWU, at St Bon) their game in 2 weeks against Xavier will be huge.
Garyland over GT on Sunday Night, setting a monster of a game against PUKE @ Comcast!!
What is your thoughts about FSU should they get past Clemson? Are we looking at goig 12-4? 13-3? Better? Best guess on potential seeding at each of the following ACC records:
12-4
13-3
14-2
Interesting hearing the talk about USU, being in North Florida I don't really get to see any of their games, but the arguement sounds similar to FSU comments a few years ago (non-conference scheduling).
The difference between FSU scheduling weak OOC and Utah St. is that FSU would play good teams in conference where the WAC is awful and has zero RPI top 100 other than Utah St.
Seeds for FSU:
14-2 - 3 seed
13-3 - 4 seed
12-4 - 5 seed
Th challenge for Utah State this year will be overcoming its brutal SOS number (187). The Aggies only have two games left on their schedule against teams in the RPI Top 150 (at New Mexico State on March 2 and their BracketBuster game), so that SOS number isn't going to get much better the rest of the way. Their chances will probably come down to how they do in their BracketBuster game, which at this point looks like a road game against St. Mary's. If they don't beat the Gaels, all of this debating might not matter.
how do they pick the teams that play in the eleven nationaly televised bracketbuster games?
ESPN, in conjuntion with the particpating conferences, picks all of the match-ups. The 11 nationally televised games are the 22 "best" teams, with the No. 1 "home" team playing the No. 1 "road" team, etc.
Here's a list of this year's 114 participants:
http://www.espnbracketbusters.com/teams.html
I'm sorry, but what exactly has WVU done to be tournament worthy?
And as far as taking Duquesne seriously, beating Dayton should play no part. Dayton is a terrible team with no set offense and a loss against Umass. Dayton has no business being in the discussion at all. With Duquesne they played a BE opponent in West Virginia and kept it close. With Dayton they played one in UC and got doubled and with Xavier they played UC and lost by 20.
If anything, it's X and Dayton who should be in the hot seat. Xavier has no good OOC wins and neither does Dayton. X also has losses to Miami(of Ohio) and a very mediocore Gonzaga squad who didn't even have their star player, as well as a loss to ODU. ODU is like third in the CAA. Both of those teams should be playing in the NIT at best and the only reason we kick their names around now is because they play in a WEAK conference.
The A-10 should get one team and no at large bids. Their play on the court hasn't justified more than that.
Let's see: West Virginia has beat Georgetown and Purdue as well as Vanderbilt, three teams that look to be going to the NCAA's. There aren't a lot of teams with that good of a profile this year.
Xavier has beaten Butler, Iowa, Seton Hall, and Wake Forest, while Duquesne's best OOC wins looks like Wisconsin-Green Bay and IUPUI (they lost against George Mason, Penn St, and Robert Morris).
Meanwhile, Dayton has looked a bit shaky in conference but did manage to beat Ole Miss, George Mason, New Mexico, and Seton Hall out of conference, as well as a couple of MAC schools (Akron and Miami of Ohio).
If Dayton was able to turn it around in conference they wouldn't have a bad profile at all, and Duquesne still has a rough slate to play in-conference (Dayton, Xavier @Mass, @Dayton, Rhode Island, @ Richmond) before it can show itself as a likely NCAA team.
Here's hoping Anonymous isn't on the selection committee...
Maybe he doesn't know Temple is an A-10 member.
In any case, the Big East is well on its way to embarrassing itself again today. UConn and Louisville have combined 2-27 from 3 in the first half, Nova is probably going to lose again, and Pitt is on upset alert @ Rutgers.
As I predicted, FSU's nature as a "95% athleticism, 5% talent" team is costing them against a mediocre Clemson team. They have more turnovers than points in the first half, Chris Singleton is under-performing again. They're so physical and athletic, but they look unskilled and poorly coached.
Incredible game between UCONN and Louisville. Peyton Siva for player of the Year. HAHA
Florida State keeps clemson without a field goal for the last 13 minutes of the first half, and they're poorly coached? The one team in the country that doesn't completely sell out for offense, and the one coach that plays strict defense, to the point of sacrificing offensive players for defensive ones, and they're poorly coached? They've won 4 straight, including a road win at miami and that little thing versus duke, and they're poorly coached? Think coach k gets them to make more than 4 of 16 three-pointers? Florida State went down 22-6 because they started 3-13 from the field, and 0-3 on fts, and clemson started 8-12(they went 11-37 the rest of the way), think calhoun would have done better? Come on. Florida State competes on a razor thin edge. They fell off today.
More Big East upsets
Georgetown over Villanova
Louisville over UCONN
What does this mean for seeding?
Still a lot of games left today and tomorrow, but if we had to predict seeds right now, we'd say UConn falls to the bottom of the 2 line, Villanova and Georgetown end up as 4s, and Louisville ends up a 5.
^I had the same
Colorado is DONE awful collapse versus Baylor
Big win by Nebraska over Texas A&M. Does this put Nebraska in the conversation for an at large being 15-5.
Is Butler done with this loss against Valpo?
Colorado? Never heard of them.
Nebraska will probably make an appearance on the First Eight Out list, but they're not worthy of a bid yet.
Valpo will replace Butler as the Horizon automatic next week. The Bulldogs will be on the outside looking in, and it's looking more and more likely that they'll have to win the Horizon tourney to get a bid.
4 game losing streak for syracuse and a huge win for Marquette!!
Everyone is losing I don't know where to seed anybody anymore!! ARGHHH
I said before that BYU isn't a great defensive team, but 54 2nd half pts vs. New Mexico just proves it.
So many Big East home losses, so many blown half time leads.
Just send Duke and OSU to the title game already.
Seeding update on the 'noles? 7 or 8, i'm assuming...
Okay, so who *wants* to be in the NCAA tournament this year?
Man, what has gotten into cbb lately!?
If OSU lost that game, without Shurna? The universe would have exploded.
hey B101, you promised me on Wednesday that if Penn State won both games this week we'd be in the tournament...I expect you to deliver on this promise come Monday!!
(PS, I know our road is still a long one to go dancing but that's 3 top 25 wins this team has...more than Syracuse, Minnesota, etc...)
It is still legal to win all the games you play in a week, right? Just checking.
FSU will drop to a low 7/high 8.
Evan - we're not breaking our promise. Penn State needed a 2-0 week and some help to get into the bracket, and that's exactly what they got. They'll be an 11 or 12 seed on Monday.
What seed would Harvard top out at if they win out?
Saturday's Answers:
Well, for the Big East to be down to a 9 bid league it would imply that someone else wanted a bid.
Almost—too bad almost only counts in horseshoes, hand-grenades, and thermonuclear warfare.
They didn't beat Louisville, so they don't deserve a spot on the 1 line.
That would be awesome—17 points and 9 rebounds in 20 minutes is not shabby at all.
Nope.
He could have stopped BYU from getting Jimmered by New Mexico.
Has any team looked better over the last 10 days than Texas? Can the Longhorns picked up a fourth straight quality win by beating Missouri?
Not in the last week and a half. Yes they did. Texas won convincingly.
Pitt did, barely, but Texas A&M was not able to shake the upset bug.
With the beating they put on Wyoming they should stay on the 2 line.
Nope—didn't happen. And Syracuse keeps spiriling down too.
Nope, they lost to Portland.
Maybe Gonzaga belongs in, but only because everyone else seems to want to lose too.
Yes, Penn State is in, 8 losses and all. No one else seems to want to win.
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
No, FSU failed.
Maybe, but Richmond didn't win so we won't know.
Colorado, this is the NIT calling.
They both lost. Vandy? Does it matter?
UCLA barely beat the Sun Devils—they stay in the bracket, for now. At least they won though.
It's looking like a one-bid league for the Horizon for now.
Are Marhsall and UAB getting the two bids? Err, I don't know. Does anyone want to win the C-USA? Anyone?
If you can't beat Texas Tech on the road, that's probably a no.
That would be a no for Cincinnati as well.
Yes, CSU won—therefore they stay in the bubble, for now.
I don't think USU will need an at-large shot, but they would at least be in the conversation because no one else seems to want to be in the NCAA tournament on the bubble.
Nice work, edgeinducedcohesion. (Mind if we call you EIC for short?)
A quick addendum to an earlier comment: Butler will be out as the Horizon automatic, but it will be either Valpo or Cleveland State that replace them. Our previous comment mistakenly left out Cleveland State as an option. The Vikings host Valpo and Butler next week, which makes including them a little more attractive.
Harvard would probably max out at an 11.
"ESPN, the Home Court of College Hoops*"
*except the Big East, where nobody can win a home game.
Yes, you can call me EIC for short, though my name is actually Nathan.
BYU's defense was atrocius in the second half. Built a 13 point lead and stayed in the 2-3 zone way too long. They looked absolutely exhausted in the second half. How bad was the loss today for BYU in terms of seeding?
Incase you couldn't tell, I'm a student at Penn State. I checked this page religiously two years ago when we were in until the last day so I'm hoping things will be different this year. Keep winning Nits!!!
With all the other upsets today, BYU still might end up on the 2 line on Monday. At worst they'll be a 3.
I posted this question in an earlier post...and I now want to throw out George Mason. Granted they don't have a big win yet. But they have played teams who are contending to be in the NCAA's: Wofford (bad loss, yes...but they are now first in their conference and have been a tough out in the past), Liberty is in second in the Big South), Duquesne and Dayton. This week is a key week for GMU as they get rematches with Hofstra and ODU. Win both, they have to be a viable at large, right?? And the VCU and Bracket Buster games should also help their profile
You said Penn State will be in, but who will be coming out?
Duke has no business being a 1 seed. Pathetic performance.
Duquesne has gotta be on your last 4 in/out list. Dominating Dayton.
Well, with St. John's win over Duke, it looks like they get to stay in. Nothing says marquee win like hanging one on the Blue Devils. I guess this means the Big East remains an 11-bid league?
Penn State will take Oklahoma State's spot in the bracket.
Duquesne will be the last team in or the first team out of tomorrow's bracket. It depends on what Washington State and Virginia Tech do tonight.
The Big East will still have 11 bids tomorrow. St. John's = wow.
If George Mason goes 2-0 this week, they'll be in the at-large mix. Right now, they're the third best team in the Colonial, which doesn't warrant consideration.
What's up with the SEC? Georgia has one of the most talented starting 5 in the nation and needs to start picking up some quality wins. Vandy, South Carolina and Florida all looked like frauds yesterday. How many bids will the SEC end up with?
The SEC looks like it's going to get a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 5 bids. Kentucky, Florida, and Vanderbilt all look like safe bets right now, and Tennessee (despite some very shaky losses) has six Top 50 wins, a Top 20 RPI and the No. 1 SOS in the country. The wild card team in the SEC right now is Georgia, which has lost four of its last six. If the Bulldogs lose at Arkansas this week, they'll be on the outside looking in.
So, if Michigan State loses to Indiana today, do they go on the Bubble?
Does Purdue's blowout loss cost them,or is a loss a loss? I disagree that Duke should lose a #1 seed just because of one "bad" loss.
I enjoy the tournament, but I guess that I am one of the few that calls it a "National Tournament Championship. I think the NCAA does a great job of figuring out the top 30 teams, but the tournament is just a crap shoot. Conference regular season champions are more a true champion in my book.
The final score wasn't pretty, but losing at Ohio State is by no means a "bad loss" for Purdue. Their win over Minnesota yesterday added another quality win to their resume, too. They won't move much on the S-curve in tomorrow's bracket.
Duke isn't getting bumped off the 1 line because of one loss. They're getting bumped because their overall resume and list of quality wins is not as strong as the other four teams on the 1 line.
Jesus Christ Virginia Tech sure knows how to make me sweat it out
We completely agree with you that the regular season is more important that a three-day conference tournament. Hopefully, with three more at-large bids to give out this year, the committee rewards a couple of mid-major regular season champs who lose in their conference tournies.
Wow. Definition of a Bad Loss -- FLA drops to Miss St. Miss St. best OOC win? Probably Nicholls St. Seriously. That was a BAD LOSS.
@DavidATL
Mississppi State lost *at home* to Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee State. But they beat UF at home despite only four plays scoring. That's just wacky.
Every Big East coach and AD should be sending flowers, candy and gold-plated thank you notes to St. Johns. That win was huge for the entire conference. I can see the arguments now -- "___ beat St. Johns, who obviously beat Duke, so the ____ should be in" and "our #11 school just dropped a double-digit whoopin' on ACC #1 Duke, so of course we can justify 11 bids."
Gold-plated thank you notes. I can get them the address if needed.
Doing my own bracketology.. here's what I got with a 1-5 seed lines.
The 1's - Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, Pitt
The 2's - UConn, Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame
The 3's - Villanova, BYU, Kentucky, Purdue
The 4's - Georgetown, Missouri, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5's - Texas A&M, Syracuse, WVU, Washington
1 Ohio State Kansas Pittsburgh Texas
2 Duke Notre Dame San Diego State UCONN
3 BYU Kentucky Purdue Wisconsin
4 Texas A&M Georgetown Villanova Missouri
5 Washington Syracuse Loiusville Vanderbilt
6 Illinois Minnesota Tennessee Temple
7 Florida State Florida West Virginia UNLV
8 Xavier Michigan State North Carolina Cincinnati
9 Boston College Marquette Arizona St. Mary's
10 St. John's Virginia Tech Georgia Utah State
11 UCLA Memphis Missouri State Richmond
12 Duquesne Cleveland State Wichita State Washington State
12 ODU Penn State
Our seeding is fairly similar
The 1's - Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, Pitt
The 2's - UConn, Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame
The 3's - Villanova, BYU, Kentucky, Purdue
The 4's - Georgetown, Missouri, Louisville, Wisconsin
The 5's - Texas A&M, Syracuse, WVU, Washington
The 6's - Temple, Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Xavier
The 7's - Illinois, UNLV, Arizona, North Carolina
The 8's - Florida, Tennessee, Florida State, St Johns
The 9's - Michigan State, Cincinnati, Marquette, UNLV
The 10's - St Mary's, Utah State, Boston College, Georgia
The 11's - UCLA, Virginia Tech, UTEP, Missouri State
The 12's - VCU, Washington State, Old Dominion, Penn State, Wichita State, Duquesne
The 13's - Cleveland State, Belmont, Oakland, Harvard
The 14's - Fairfield, Coastal Carolina, College of Charleston, Kent State
The 15's - Long Beach, Montana, Maine, Long Island
The 16's - Bucknell, Florida Atlantic, Austin Peay, McNeese State, Hampton, Jackson State
Last 4 in: Old Dominion, Penn State, Wichita State, Duquesne
Last 4 out: Richmond, Kansas State, Gonzaga, George Mason
Next 4 out: Colorado State, Nebraska, UAB, Clemson
My final bracket of the night.
Sunday's Answers
Washington State is safe, for now *glares*.
Duquesne looks for real--even if it did nothing OOC.
Virginia Tech barely holds on--though it might consider developing a bigger bench this next recruiting season.
Northern Iowa prevailed, staying in striking distance in the MVC.
Well, at least Maryland wants to win, which is more than can be said for some teams.
And raise your Long Island Ice tea for St. Johns for gaining a vital marquee win.
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