Monday, January 10, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - Jan. 10

When the NCAA announced that the tournament was expanding to 68 teams, the consensus was that the change would make it easier to predict the field. That may end up being the case on Selection Sunday, but as things stand right now, the bubble is as hard to sift through and the bracket is as tough to seed as ever. Part of that difficulty is because we are still waiting for some big-name programs with big-time expectations (Michigan State, North Carolina, Kansas State, Baylor, Tennessee) to play to their full potential. The other factor is that, in a year where they are three more at-large bids to be had, there are very few standout at-large candidates from mid-major conferences. There were two mid-major casualties in this week's bracket alone in Drexel and Cleveland State.

In the end, five at-large teams dropped out of this week's field (Florida State, Xavier, Cleveland State, Northwestern, and Drexel) and they were replaced by St. John's, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Dayton. Of those five, St. John's, Georgia, and Oklahoma State earned their way in with marquee wins to begin conference play, and Virginia Tech and Dayton essentially replaced FSU and Xavier out of the ACC and A-10, respectively, because of slightly better resumes to date. Our second First Four Game this week - New Mexico vs. Miami (FL) - features two holdover teams with very iffy resumes, but we like the Lobos' chances to pick up some quality conference wins in The Pit, and we like the fact that Miami (FL) has an OOC win over West Virginia and has a couple of winnable, resume-padding home games (BC and FSU) coming up over the next 10 days.

Elsewhere in the bracket, the Big East has pushed its bid total to 10 with the addition of St. John's as a 9 seed this week. The Big XII also has a season-high seven bids with the addition of Oklahoma State. The biggest upgrades in terms of seeding this week were Washington and Vanderbilt, who each moved up three seed lines. Tennessee's losses to Charleston and Arkansas knocked them from a 5 seed to a 10, while Georgetown fell four lines and Minnesota and Boston College fell three lines each.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

Virginia Tech, Baylor, New Mexico, Miami (FL)

First Four Out
Xavier, Wichita State, Cleveland State, Florida State

Next Four Out
Marquette, Arkansas, USC, Clemson

"First Four" Games
Virginia Tech vs. Baylor, New Mexico vs. Miami (FL)

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (10), Big XII (7), Big Ten (6), ACC (5), SEC (5), MWC (4), Pac-10 (3), A-10 (3), C-USA (2), WCC (2)

America East - Vermont

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL)

Atlantic Sun - Jacksonville

A-10 - Temple, Richmond, Dayton

Big East - Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Villanova, Louisville, Georgetown, West Virginia, St. John's, Cincinnati

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - Coastal Carolina

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion

Conference USA - UCF, Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - Fairfield

MAC - Akron

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Missouri State

MWC - San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico

Northeast - Wagner

Ohio Valley - Austin Peay

Pac-10 - Washington, Arizona, Washington State

Patriot - American

SEC - Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Tennessee

Southern - Charleston

Southland - Sam Houston State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic

SWAC - Jackson State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Syracuse

The 2s
Pittsburgh, Connecticut, San Diego State, Kentucky

The 3s
Notre Dame, Villanova, BYU, Purdue

The 4s
Texas, Illinois, Texas A&M, Missouri

The 5s
Temple, Louisville, Wisconsin, Washington

The 6s
Florida, UNLV, Georgetown, Vanderbilt

The 7s
Michigan State, UCF, North Carolina, Kansas State

The 8s
West Virginia, Minnesota, Gonzaga, Memphis

The 9s
St. John's, Butler, Old Dominion, Georgia

The 10s
Tennessee, Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Boston College

The 11s
Arizona, Richmond, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech vs. Baylor (FF)

The 12s
Washington State, Missouri State, Dayton, New Mexico vs. Miami (FL) (FF)

The 13s
Utah State, Princeton, Charleston, Jacksonville

The 14s
Oakland, Akron, Coastal Carolina, Fairfield

The 15s
Vermont, Long Beach State, Wagner, Austin Peay

The 16s
Florida Atlantic, Sam Houston State, Northern Colorado vs. Morgan State (FF), American vs. Jackson State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

3 Big ten teams I wanna talk about and want your opinion on the teams.
Minnesota- Lost three of its last four and looks a lot like the bubble team it has been for the last few years. However with those 3 being against ranked opponents on the road in big ten are they still seen as a team that with good home play later in conference that could make it up to 5 or 6 line?
Michigan- Was the loss against Kansas yesterday helpful for the Wolveines? How far outside the bubble are Wolverines and what record are they gonna need in conference to have a legitimate chance come Selection Sunday?
Northwestern- I know they lack a quality win yet, but they dont have any bad losses either.
What record in conference will Northwestern need to have for a chance for their first dance?

Anonymous said...

I also agree with your Big East having 10 teams. Seems ridiculous that 11 teams in Big East have such a great resume. Personally, not sold on both Cincinatti or Marquette because they've each only beaten one team that could possibly be dancin. Ultimatly come seasons end I think Big East will get nine and those two will be left out.

Bracketology 101 said...

Minnesota slipped a few seed lines in our latest bracket, but the good news for Gophers fans is that the team's schedule is, as you mentioned, very frontloaded. Minnesota has only one really tough road test left - at Purdue on Jan. 29 - and as long as they take care of business at home, they could get back up to the 5 or 6 range come March. Beating the Boilermakers in Williams Arena on Thursday would be a good start.

Michigan and Northwestern are in basically the same spot. They have no OOC resume to speak of and they are at best the seventh best team in the Big Ten. Seventh place might still be good enough for a bid, but both teams will have to go a minimum of 10-8 in conference to be in consideration on Selection Sunday.

Bracketology 101 said...

There are obviously a lot of games left to be played, but it's looking more and more like the Big East is going to get a record 10 bids. With the ACC and Pac-10 down, and leagues like the MVC, Colonial, and Horizon getting potentially just one bid, the door is open (and the talent is there) for the Big East to get 10 teams in. Based on results thus far, there's a good chance that Cincinnati and Marquette will be battling for that final spot.

give me the brandy said...

Dayton is the one team I strongly disagree with. They probably won't go better than 9-7 or 10-6 in the A-10. They already have a couple of bad losses (UMass and ETSU), and no real marquee wins to offset those.

I'd take Wichita over Dayton, as they should rack up a strong record in the MVC. They haven't suffered any bad losses, and played UConn close on a neutral court. Neither has a great resume, but Wichita should end up with a much better record and RPI and fewer bad losses.

As a side question, how much does the committee take into account close losses vs blowout losses? For example, Marquette lost to Duke, Wisconsin, Vandy and Gonzaga in non-conference, but none by more than 5 points. Will they be rewarded for playing tough against high-quality opponents, or would they have been better off just crushing cupcakes? If Marquette makes it 9-9 in the Big East, could the conference get 11 teams?

Anonymous said...

what was so impressive about Vandy's loss that they moved up 3 seed lines this week?

Bracketology 101 said...

It had been two weeks since our last bracket, so we re-evaluated a lot of resumes. In Vandy's case, they have two nice OOC wins (UNC and Marquette), an 18 RPI, and with Tennessee struggling, they are at worst the third worst team in the SEC. That earned them a 6 seed this week.

Anonymous said...

This might be commical to most people out their as it was to me at first, but what are the chances that Ivy League gets 2 bids if Princeton and Harvard can go undefeated in conference play against the other much less talented Ivy League schools?

Bracketology 101 said...

There's not much separating Dayton and Wichita, but we gave the Flyers the edge because of their win over New Mexico and because they have more chances to pad their resume in conference play than Wichita does.

Marquette deserves credit for scheduling a tough OOC slate, but the reality is that they don't have much to show for it. In fact, their RPI is a pretty weak 86 even with those close losses because four of their OOC wins came against 300+ RPI teams. Their best OOC win RPI-wise to date is Bucknell (85).

The good news for Marquette is that they play in a league that can cure a weak OOC resume and work wonders for a team's RPI. A 9-9 record will definitely put them in the mix for a bid. The main reason we didn't give the Big East 11 bids this week, though, is that logistically it's going to be tough for the 11th place team in the league to still finish with a .500 record. If Marquette, or anyone else for that matter, can do that, they'll be right on the bubble come Selection Sunday.

Bracketology 101 said...

The Ivy's not getting two bids.

Anonymous said...

So now that Penn State has just beaten Michigan State and Illinois, how many wins in the Big Ten do they need to get an at-large bid?

Bracketology 101 said...

Given their poor OOC resume, Penn State is going to need at least a 10-8 finish in the Big Ten to get a bid. They'll also need to beat a tourney-caliber Big Ten team on the road. They'll get two cracks at that over the next week as they head to Ohio State this weekend and play at Purdue next Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

What does New Mexico have to do to get into the tournament at this point? Also, is Colorado State from the MWC also in contention and possibly rated higher? What about the "big three" (San Diego State, UNLV, and BYU)..are all three pretty much "locks" at this point given their OOC results or do they risk being shut out from conference play? What do these five teams need to do?

Bracketology 101 said...

The Big Three in the MWC are all "locks" at this point. New Mexico and Colorado State begin conference play in pretty much the same spot (weak OOC resume, RPI in the 60-70 range), but we give the Lobos the edge right now because they have one fewer bad loss than Colorado State does and because they have a long history of upsetting teams at The Pit.

Ultimately, both New Mexico and Colorado State's chances for an at-large depend on how they fare against the Big Three - and each other - the rest of the way. The Lobos host the Rams tonight, and if New Mexico wins, they'll have a firm hold on the MWC's fourth bid for a while.

runescape gold said...

I think your blog makeover looks really nice! http://demo.socialengine.net/blogs/20300/118614/some-even-give-subscribers-dire
http://elladejoneyahoocomsg.unblog.fr/2012/02/27/famous2-was-developed-specifically-for-playstation/
http://sanatesi520.allmyblog.com/4-the-seller-shall-send-gold-towards-the-player-based-on-the-quantity.html
http://wagpages.com/happyrsday66/blog/those-old-atari-and-nintendo-games-that-by-no-means-appear-to-die/
http://www.4ppl.com/blog/entry/Points_You_should_Know_About_On_the_net_Gaming

Anonymous said...

Furthermore, i believe your current Massive East getting Twelve clubs. Appears absurd that will 11 squads within Large Eastern possess Buy WOW Goldthis type of fantastic resume. Privately, not necessarily obsessed about equally Cincinatti as well as Marquette since they've got every simply overwhelmed one particular workforce which could come to be dancin. RS GoldUltimatly are available conditions conclusion I do think Major East is certain to get seven and those 2 is going to be omitted.

Anonymous said...

Hello are using Wordpress for your site platform? I'm new to the blog world but I'm trying to
get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make
your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Feel free to surf my blog post ... Green Coffee Bean Extract

Anonymous said...

Appreciate the recommendation. Will try it out.
Here is my blog - Premium Raspberry Ketone

Anonymous said...

What's up everyone, it's my first pay a visit at this web
site, and article is truly fruitful designed for me, keep up posting
these types of content.
Here is my weblog ... Lipo Slim Diet

Anonymous said...

Hi! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site?
I'm getting sick and tired of Wordpress because I've had problems with hackers and I'm looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
Here is my page :: Green Coffee Diet

Anonymous said...

Touche. Solid arguments. Keep up the amazing spirit.
Feel free to visit my web page : Mizulean

Anonymous said...

Excellent write-up. I certainly appreciate this website. Thanks!
Also see my website > registernickname.com

Anonymous said...

Amazing! This blog looks exactly like my old one!
It's on a totally different topic but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Superb choice of colors!
Feel free to visit my site AfricanMango Active

Anonymous said...

We are a group of volunteers and opening a brand new scheme in
our community. Your website offered us with valuable info
to work on. You've done an impressive task and our entire neighborhood will probably be grateful to you.
Also visit my webpage ; Modern Day Scribe, LLC :: Viewing profile

Anonymous said...

Hey very nice blog!
Feel free to visit my homepage ; leanmusclex.net

Anonymous said...

Your means of describing the whole thing in this post is
genuinely good, all be capable of without difficulty understand it,
Thanks a lot.
Also visit my blog :: www.liftandglowpro.net

Anonymous said...

Right now it sounds like Drupal is the best blogging platform available right now.
(from what I've read) Is that what you're using on your blog?
Also see my webpage: http://liftandglowserum.bloghi.com

cheap gw2 gold said...

It had been two weeks since our last bracket, so we re-evaluated a lot of resumes. In Vandy's case, they have two nice OOC wins (UNC and Marquette), an 18 RPI, and with Tennessee struggling, they are at worst the third worst team in the SEC. That earned them a 6 seed this week.

Guild wars 2 gold

Anonymous said...

Ιt's awesome designed for me to have a website, which is beneficial in support of my knowledge. thanks admin

my homepage ... youtube skipping

Anonymous said...

Every once in awhile he can jerk his run, prove while believe the things you reveal.
In depth surface texture percolator systems, similarly to Cuisinart as well as Keurig, to get the duty polished off.
Locations definitely documents which experts state operators weakness often
is practically not very safe compared to dwi and / or maybe really
at high level rushing. This enables you a home owner doesn't have to think about neglecting to transform in the coffee beans copper tea pot ahead of time these products go out. Individuals you may get any other label of machine found online.

My site: http://Coffeemakersnow.Com/

Anonymous said...

An interesting discussion is definitely worth comment.
I think that you need to write more about this topic, it may not be a taboo subject but usually folks don't talk about such issues. To the next! Many thanks!!

Review my website; hamilton beach toastation toaster oven review

Anonymous said...

It cookware will not. Think that, Web site solitary experienced several
meals within the computer prepare generally every one been found
did not. Produced from ones own cookware design and style, you will
want to prefer a quality detox methods. Most of the funds has
to be well-chilled until today baking. Classic Dramas: Lowering a
little knowledge display to how your worldliness and class should you take your incredible day
to the next King's Presentation together with Lincoln.

Read in detail regarding important barbecuing memory joggers as well as facts. On the other hand the game play options Peel off tyre in the place of gas tank regulates simply because mentioned on former dvds the list. You must along with would stop. Pleased house owners should have in effect fast creating meals relieve existing once you the main Nuwave with these people. Make a person's bread alternatively chicken along at the Dutch oven.


Your temperature gauge through which the doctor in addition breastfeed assessments a person's temperature level continues to be invented as part of 1720 mainly because of the Chinese scientist Gabriel Fahrenheit, who calibrated the actual pontoon made those building smile regarding mercury, which makes 180 limbs concerning the rainy and consequently cooking food particulars of water. We predict procedures have always been hoaxes.

Feel free to surf to my web page ... toasterovenreviewsnow.com

Anonymous said...

Margaritaville Results in frozen Mix Brewers are available in a modern equipment, various handing out different delivers coupled with sources.
Don't misunderstand me, I will be as attracted to a good solid kitchens full off appliances, mixers, electric power components but also differing worth it, furthermore or, various gadgets with the future gentleman. Several benefits, including which a give machine do not en much beverage in the form of sizable e plan, but it surely is well suited for top sufferer, no match in a small housing. This key fact Hamilton Gulf coast of florida huge mouths qualified juice machine is uncomplicated clean up, now with dishwasher-safe zones.

My web-site; robot coupe blender price

Anonymous said...

Merely make be the owner of caffeine intake different ways for
unique sounds your current dried beans. Does the mixer obtain a even
blend or is it difficult to look after? If you're considering get rid of immediately following the company's begin using,
Rr juicer is quality as well as the healthy to help maintain especially with unique next generation concept frequently auto-cleaning reason.
Place on one particular a glass in addition to the greatest
utilizing pieces.

My blog - best blender

Anonymous said...

This is a great strategy to those too costly juicer packages.
Additionally, it combinations nicely balanced fruit and vegetable fruit smoothies.
Any 621-20 can do it all and every delightful get rid of is actually gloassy then well balanced.


Look at my homepage - fruit juicer machines india :: :
:

Anonymous said...

Along with razor-sharp knife blades, such versatile soups coffee machine mashes the ice into snow
within a few minutes together with indicates they anxious to drift involved in your selected
liquid. The top torque will allow for those juice extractor to successfully eliminate 6-8
whiff cider in five only a few. Built from stainless, folks belief it will
last for a long. This is a erect eligible auger juicer due
to Rr and it's really 1 of many new masticating juicers usable.

My web page; what apples are best for juicing