Sunday, March 13, 2011

Bracketology 101's Sunday Morning Thoughts

We are currently in lockdown mode in Bracketology 101 headquarters with "One Shining Moment" playing on a continuous loop.

Saturday was a wild day filled with buzzer-beaters and crazy finishes, and as is the case every Championship Saturday, the final results answered some questions and opened up several more.

Here is how we see things heading into today's games:

1. Penn State and Richmond are in regardless of what happens today. A Dayton win today would not put Richmond in any jeopardy of getting squeezed.

2. San Diego State will probably end up on the 2 line after beating BYU in the MWC final last night. The Cougars could be as low as a 4.

3. We don't like Clemson's resume at all, but we can also see a fifth ACC bid being handed out. The Tigers would be the logical choice for that fifth bid.

4. Perhaps the biggest question mark is what the committee will do with Alabama and Georgia. We can't see both getting in or both getting left out. Alabama has beaten Georgia twice in the last week, but the Tide looked awful yesterday against Kentucky and don't have the RPI or OOC resume wins that Georgia has. 'Bama does have a much prettier Top 50 record, though (4-4 vs. 3-9). This will be one of the toughest calls of the day to make.

5. The other bubble team to watch today is St. Mary's. We think the Gaels are still in decent shape to get a bid because we think the committee will want to reward some mid-majors, and we like their resume better than UAB's, Missouri State's, or VCU's. A win by Dayton today, though, could change things that outlook and could leave St. Mary's on the outside looking in.

6. If Duke wins today, they will probably get the final 1 seed and Notre Dame will get bumped to a 2.

We will release our Final Field of 68 between 4-5 p.m. ET today. Until then, we will check the comments section periodically to answer any questions.

229 comments:

1 – 200 of 229   Newer›   Newest»
Dave said...

Everyone seems to think Illinois is in, but having badly folded down the stretch, is there a chance they get left out? What about playing in the "First Four" games?

Bracketology 101 said...

There is a chance that Illinois is the lowest-seeded Big Ten team, but we think they'll stay out of the First Four. We can't see them getting left out completely.

William the Strange said...

Illinois will be in, but a lot of pundits have them 7th in the Big Ten pecking order seed wise. First Four wouldn't be such an insane suggestion.

Collin said...

Is there any possibility that Virginia Tech is left out completely and if they are in what do you think the chances that they avoid a first four game are.

Kevin said...

So OSU, Pitt and Kansas are locks at 1 seeds? No chance Pitt gets bumped?

Bracketology 101 said...

They could end up in the First Four, but we think Colorado, VT, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, St. Mary's, USC, and UAB all have weaker resumes.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Virginia Tech gets in, there's probably about a 60% chance they get a First Four game.

Bracketology 101 said...

We don't think there's any chance Pitt gets bumped. ND maybe.

f said...

What seed is Louisville today, and ar they in Chicago?

Bracketology 101 said...

Louisville will be a 3. Location TBD.

f said...

Will Louisville be ahead of Purdue?

f said...

Who do you think will end up in Chicago and if Kentucky beats Florida will they jump in front of Louisville and go to Chicago?

Anonymous said...

Where do you see Michigan seeded? B10 will get 7 for sure right? Is there any way if everything goes wrong today that Michigan is in the First Four?

Anonymous said...

It was bugging me last night that some people were actually asking if PSU needed to beat OSU today but had Michigan State and Illinois solidly in. Even with a loss today, PSU's RPI, SOS, number of top 50 wins, and number of wins against teams ranked worse than #200 are all significantly better than the other two, no?

Caleb said...

Lunardi at ESPN seems to favor USC getting in to the First Four with Bama and Georgia being left out of the mix. Do you think there is any chance for the Trojans to go dancing?

Matt said...

What is the percentage you would give regarding Wisconsin being a 4 seed?

William the Strange said...

@9:39

Significantly better is a stretch. They have a slightly better RPI/SOS but less quality wins then MSU. PSU ahead of Illinois isn't a stretch but would put them squarely in 6th in the B1G pecking order unless they beat Sullinger and the refs today.

f said...

could you give us your 1,2,3,4 seeds in order thanks for everything you do

Bracketology 101 said...

Louisville will likely be ahead of Purdue.

Penn State's in.

Michigan will be a 10 or 11.

There's probably an 80% chance Wisconsin is a 4 seed.

Bracketology 101 said...

Still working on seeding...1 and 2 lines could change based on ACC and SEC finals.

Bracketology 101 said...

We understand why some people like USC, but we think they have more negatives than positives on their resume. We think they'll ultimately be on the outside looking in.

f said...

can you do the 1,2,3,4 seeds in order as if the tournament started today

Anonymous said...

Since the committee is lazy will Penn states seed even improve if they beat Ohio state?

Also have the same question has someone in the last comments section is there any place to submit your own bracket?

f said...

If Kentucky wins today do you put them in front of Louisville?

Anonymous said...

If VT gets in?....what % chance do you give them for making the field? I have to think they are a near lock even if Dayton wins.

Collin said...

1 Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2 Seeds- Notre Dame, San Diego State, Florida, Syracuse
3 Seeds- Texas, Purdue, UCONN, Louisville
4 Seeds- Wisconsin, BYU, Kentucky, St. John's,
5 Seeds- Arizona, West Virginia, Vandy, Georgetown
6 Seeds- Cincinati, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Temple
7 Seeds- Xavier, ODU, Missouri, UCLA
8 Seeds- George Mason, Washington, UNLV, Tennessee
9 Seeds- Utah State, Marquette, Villanova, Florida State,
10 Seeds- Illinois, Michigan, Richmond, Gonzaga
11 Seeds- Butler, Michigan State, Colorado, Memphis
12 Seeds- Penn State, Virginia Tech, (Saint Mary's vs. Clemson), (UAB vs. Georgia)
13 Seeds- Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
14 Seeds- Bucknell, Long Island, Wofford, Akron
15 Seeds- Morehead State, Saint Peter's, UC Santa Barbara, Boston U
16 Seeds- Northern Colorado, Texas San Antonio, (UNC-Asheville vs. Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State)

Collin said...

Just realized the Blog doesn't recognize the Daylight Savings change

Mason said...

Is there anyway that the selection committee would take into account the fact that Virginia Tech has been left out the past 3 years?

Anonymous said...

If Dayton, are they in a first 4 game?

Does Syracuse make a 3 seed?

AG said...

One thing that hasn't been talked about is West Coast bias. With the severe lack of quality West Coast teams this year I can't help but wonder if the selection committee will bring out that ridiculous "geographical continuity" argument they used to take Air Force and Utah State in 2006. Could that give SMC the edge over the east coast mid-majors or USC the advantage over VT, Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia?

The more I look at it, the more I feel like Georgia is not just in, but safely in. After all, we all know the public tends to overestimate how much the selection committee pays attention to the conference tournaments.

William the Strange said...

@10:02

If Dayton wins, I'd guess they're a 13.

Anonymous said...

any chance for missouri state?

Anonymous said...

Why don't you even mention Harvard in the mix? They are top 35 RPI with quality wins over Colorado and Boston College, and close loss AT Michigan. One bad loss but only by one point at their biggest rival Yale's home court. You have to agree they are at least in the mix. This is total big conference snobbery.

Bryan Nofal said...

Where do you see FSU ending up? Do they fall out of the 8/9 matchup to either a 10 or 11?

Dawgola Tesla said...

B101,

So you really think there is a chance Bama gets in when their best OOC victories are Lipscomb and.....Troy?

Bracketology 101 said...

Dayton can't be in a Frst Four game because if they win, they'd be an automatic bid. They'd be a 12 or 13.

Missouri State's not getting in.

Bracketology 101 said...

FSU will be somewhere in the 9-11 range. We'll let you know later.

Anonymous said...

@10:05

Colorado and Boston College are not quality wins. Hell, Princeton's a bigger win then those 2. And those are their ONLY 3 wins against RPI top 100.

SOS at 140 with 3 top 100 wins, not good enough.

Bracketology 101 said...

Dawgola -

There's a chance 'Bama DOESN'T get in because their best OOC wins are against Lipscomb and Troy.

Bracketology 101 said...

Harvard will be one of the first 5-6 teams out.

Collin said...

I accidentally left UNC out in my first bracket!

1 Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2 Seeds- Notre Dame, San Diego State, Florida, Syracuse
3 Seeds- UNC, Texas, Purdue, UCONN,
4 Seeds- Louisville, Wisconsin, BYU, Kentucky,
5 Seeds- St. John's, Arizona, West Virginia, Vandy,
6 Seeds- Georgetown, Cincinati, Texas A&M, Temple
7 Seeds- Kansas State, Xavier, ODU, Missouri,
8 Seeds- UCLA, George Mason, Washington, UNLV,
9 Seeds- Tennessee, Utah State, Marquette, Villanova,
10 Seeds- Florida State, Illinois, Michigan, Richmond,
11 Seeds- Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan State, Colorado,
12 Seeds- Memphis, Virginia Tech, (Saint Mary's vs. Penn State), (Clemson vs. Georgia)
13 Seeds- Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
14 Seeds- Bucknell, Long Island, Wofford, Akron
15 Seeds- Morehead State, Saint Peter's, UC Santa Barbara, Boston U
16 Seeds- Northern Colorado, Texas San Antonio, (UNC-Asheville vs. Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State)

Anonymous said...

B101 is Penn state going to have to be In a first four game?

Matt said...

Any chance Boston University moves up to a 15 seed with Long Beach State losing?

Anonymous said...

Any chance Connecticut is a 2?

DCDuck said...

B101, I am flabbergasted by your continued love for St. Mary's (CA) and their one lonely top-50 RPI win (home vs. RPI 23 St. John's). Their SoS wasn't particularly impressive (101) and they have the single worst loss of any team on the bubble (@ RPI 320 U of San Diego).

They suffer from "bloated resume disorder" as well, with not one, but two wins coming against opponents outside D1, and 10 of their other 23 wins coming against teams with RPI worse than 240.

VCU might have more losses outside the top 100, but they also have a pair of top-25 wins (@ODU, Mason Neutral), three top-50 wins away from home, six top-100 wins away from home, and are 8-8 against the top-100 overall. They also have a better SoS (87).

That is why I question why you have St. Mary's in and VCU isn't even on the first four out.

Bracketology 101 said...

Penn State should avoid the First Four games.

Yes, UConn can get a 2. Florida losing today would help.

BU would be a logical candidate to move up to a 15.

Bracketology 101 said...

St. Mary's tied for the WCC regular season title. VCU finished fourth in the Colonial. That's a big, big difference.

Anonymous said...

A bit off-topic but . . . does anyone know if there's a site that offers a "large print" printable bracket? I was thinking that putting each of the four regions on a single page would work well for those of us with aging eyes.

DCDuck said...

It's a big difference because the WCC is a pitiful league aside from Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The Colonial has six teams in the top-100 RPI, three in the top-50, two in the top-25. After Gonzaga and SMC, you have U San Francisco (RPI 120), Santa Clara (RPI 158), and Portland (RPI 103) in the WCC.

f said...

If kentucky wins today do you put them above louisville

Bracketology 101 said...

Not many fourth place teams in 10th-rated conferences get at-larges.

Anonymous said...

UK will not be higher than Ville.

Anonymous said...

So if BC and Va. Tech are matched head to head ... BC has two wins over Va Tech, a better SOS and RPI ... but stays home because Va Tech beat Duke and FSU? And the fact that BC beat Va Tech in Blacksburg vy 15 two weeks ago doesn't count? That's absurd.

f said...

UK did beat Louisville head to head so they may be ahead of louisville if they win today

Collin said...

BC also shit the bed against Clemson but Virginia Tech had a come back win verse Florida State

Big Ev said...

I'm curious about the seeding of the Big Ten teams. OSU is a 1, obviously. But is Purdue a 3 and wusconsin a 4? And how do you rank MSU, Illinois, PSU and um? I'm glad I don't have to sort that mess out.

Anonymous said...

how in the world do Palm and Lunardi have G'Town as an 8 and a 7?? they don't fall below 6, do they?

Anonymous said...

how in the world do Palm and Lunardi have G'Town as an 8 and a 7?? they don't fall below 6, do they?

Anonymous said...

What about Old Dominion. What is the lowest seed they will get? a 6 seed? Please dont tell me they are gonna get an 8 or 9

Shaudius said...

I'm not really sure how Louisville could be ahead of Purdue for Chicago. Louisville has 2 more losses, is 9-7 versus 9-3 versus Purdue for the RPI top 50. Has just as many bad losses, Drexel/Providence. Only really scored 1 quality win more in the tournament. I mean I get that how you finish does have some bearing, but Purdue finished strongly except their last 2 games, its not like they collapsed so much as played 2 really shitty games.

Anonymous said...

What time does the official bracket become announced tonight?

Anonymous said...

Georgetown should be no higher than a 7 or 8. Look at the entire body of work for the Hoyas and not the RPI. Pitt, Notre Dame, Syrcause, Louisville, UConn, St. John's, Cincy, and WVU all have better resumes than Georgetown.

They are 9th best Big East team. Complain that Chris Wright got hurt in the second half of the first Cincinnati when Georgetown was down by seven at home, but those loses Cincy(2), UConn, and Syracuse all happened, can't take that away.

Bracketology 101 said...

We can't see Georgetown being worse than a 6.

ODU will be in the 7-9 range.

Bracketology 101 said...

The Selection Show is at 6 p.m. ET.

Anonymous said...

Usually, fans read more into the conference tournaments than the selection committee does. The committee has almost always given greater preference to the overall resume.

Having said that, that corrupt lunkhead AD from osu is running things, so you never know.

Anonymous said...

I know it is slim, but is there any chance of VCU getting in? Does it hurt them that their will already be 2 CAA teams dancing?


Who will ODU be paired up and where?

johnboy said...

Thanks for all your great work, do you see Michigan still in Denver?

Pmckenne said...

If Dayton wins the A-10 will they steal VT's bid?

Any chance if Dayton gets in they will play in the 1st 4 game in Dayton?

Anonymous said...

Alabama has to get in. 13-5 SEC record and beat Georgia twice. I will say it again, Alabama beat Georgia twice. They are 16-5 in there last games. I think Georgia is in too. I think Georgia is the last team in and they are on the line only to be bumped if Dayton wins. Alabama and Georgia gets in over St. Mary's and USC.

Anonymous said...

Dayton WILL NOT have a play-in game if they get an automatic bid. Their are at least 13-14 auto-bid teams who would be below Dayton.

ivarngizteb said...

Any chance SDSU gets a 1 seed if Duke gets killed by UNC?

Bracketology 101 said...

The First Four is for the final four at-large teams in the field. Dayton would be an automatic bid, so they wouldn't be involved.

Bracketology 101 said...

SDSU's a 2.

Anonymous said...

I hate Louisville, but their wins in combination are much better than Purdue's. Purdue has 2 top 25 wins (Louisville has 7!) and did pretty poorly away from home. They did nothing OOC other than Va Tech. Most of Purdue's top 50 wins are against #'s40-50. Purdue's staring at a 4 seed.

Anonymous said...

very interesting prop on 5dimes betting site:

Clemson makes NCAA Tournament -600
Clemson not in NCAA Tournament +400

i knew you wouldn't have the guts to leave them out b101.

Dustin said...

B101, I believe the poster was asking if Dayton would be a 16 seed that had a play in game maybe? Not sure. Either way, they avoid it.

Justin said...

Regardless what Lunardi says, I don't see how Clemson makes the field. They have no T50 wins. College of Charleston, Long Beach St, and East Carolina are their best OOC wins. Their best wins in the ACC are against fellow bubblers VT/FSU/BCx2. And they have 3 losses against middling-to-bad power conference teams.

And putting them in the field ahead of VT (the same record, but with a Duke win, a PSU win, and two FSU wins) is even more baffling to me.

Shaudius said...

The committee isn't given top 25 wins as a stat to evaluate, so the number Louisville has probably isn't gonna factor much into their resume.

Collin said...

@Shaudius

They are there for 5 DAYS so I think they put in more time than that.

Anonymous said...

B101

Is it fair to say that Georgia/Alabama/USC are fighting for one spot with all other teams either being fairly clearly in or out?

Steve said...

I really like Oakland, but I am not sure if their size match up would help them against Wisconsin. But if they were to get by them, I could see them being an elite 8 team,

I know that the money is to great, but I would love to see elimination of the automatic bid for the conference tournaments. I think it can hurt the smaller conferences. But it is also about the only time that they get one of their games on TV, so those tournaments are not going away.

Aren't we ALL glad there are not 96 teams? A team could conceivably see 7-8 games in 8 days.

Shaudius said...

They get their games on TV because they are playing for an automatic bid...

Anonymous said...

Don't totally agree, but here is a good rundown:

63. Georgia (21-11, 9-7, RPI: 39): Two losses to fellow at-large hopeful Alabama in the past week leave the Bulldogs in a somewhat precarious spot. Not one of Georgia's 11 losses came against a team that isn't at least in the running for an NCAA tournament berth, yet the Bulldogs still suffered 11 losses and also only managed standout wins against Kentucky, Tennessee and Colorado.

64. Colorado (21-13, 8-8, RPI: 76): While the Buffs couldn't topple Kansas in the Big 12 semifinals on Friday, they all but punched their NCAA ticket the previous night by upsetting previously surging Kansas State. A third win over Kansas State this season coupled with victories over Missouri and Texas should send Colorado to the NCAA tournament despite mediocre computer numbers dragged down by far too many victories over teams with RPI's 300 and above.

65. Penn State (19-13, 9-9, RPI: 54): Big Ten tournament victories over Wisconsin and Michigan State catapult the Nittany Lions from the fringes of the at-large discussion to the heart of it. Although double-digit non-league losses to Maine, Maryland and Ole Miss are warts on Penn State's resume, the Nittany Lions (18-13) now boast two wins apiece against Wisconsin and Michigan State and one over Illinois.

66. Alabama (21-11, 12-4, RPI: 79): Alabama remains the most fascinating bubble team in the field because of the conundrum of whether its strong SEC season counteracts its woeful RPI and poor non-league performance. The Tide's come-from-behind SEC quarterfinal victory over Georgia on Friday strengthened their case, but they remain smack on the bubble after a blowout loss to Kentucky on Saturday.

67. USC (19-14, 10-8, RPI: 69): The Trojans suffered a narrow but costly loss to top-seeded Arizona in the Pac-10 semifinals on Saturday, leaving them in a precarious spot despite six wins in their final eight games. While marquee wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA and Washington bolster USC's case, no bubble team has a worse collection of losses than Rider, Bradley and TCU, not to mention a sweep at the hands of Oregon.

68. Virginia Tech (21-11, 9-7, RPI: 64): It's fitting that perennially bubble-bound Virginia Tech finds itself in its usual tenuous position entering Selection Sunday. A loss to Duke in the ACC semifinals on Saturday didn't erase the good the Hokies did in edging Florida State the previous day, but it did ensure Seth Greenberg and his team a sleepless Saturday night as they wait to see whether they're in or out.

Anonymous said...

And are these teams out?
-------- CUT LINE --------

69. Clemson (21-11, 9-7, RPI: 57): Aside from a victory over Southern Conference tournament champion Wofford in November, the only certain NCAA tournament team the Tigers have beaten is Florida State at home. That's why it would have been so huge for Clemson to hold onto its ACC semifinal lead against North Carolina, a task that proved to difficult to accomplish.

70. Saint Mary's (23-7, 11-3, RPI: 44): What may cost the Gaels a bid is a late-season slide that included a pair of losses to Gonzaga, a home loss to Utah State and an inexplicable loss to woeful San Diego. Does an early home win over St. John's and going 1-for-3 against the Zags counteract that poor finish? Let's just say it's going to be a nerve-wracking weekend for the Gaels.

71. VCU (22-11, 12-6, RPI: 49): The Rams' rally against Old Dominion in the CAA title game fell a few buckets short, which may end up condemning them to the NIT. Can solid wins over UCLA, George Mason and Old Dominion outweigh a poor finish to CAA play that included losses to Drexel and James Madison? Doubtful.

72. Boston College (20-12, 9-7, RPI: 45): The Eagles one-sided quarterfinal loss to fellow at-large hopeful Clemson on Friday afternoon will probably be the result that keeps them from making the field of 68. A 9-7 ACC record is nothing to get excited about this season, and a victory over Texas A&M is the only standout non-conference win on Boston College's resume.

73. Alabama-Birmingham (22-8, 12-4, RPI: 28): UAB's overtime loss to East Carolina in the Conference USA quarterfinals on Thursday likely dooms the Blazers to the NIT. The Blazers won the the league title, boast a strong RPI and defeated VCU and Arkansas outside of league play, but the lack of a marquee wins on this resume probably isn't enough to overcome Thursday's stunning loss.

Anonymous said...

Let's not forget the money factor of the NCAA. Does anybody really think that the Big 10 will grab 4 double digit NCAA seeds at the expense of the PAC 10, ACC, or SEC? Some interesting data on those 4 Big 10 teams:

Mich - 0 wins against Wisc/OSU/Purdue and best OOC win against Clemson.

All other teams have 2 wins against the top Big 10 tier or other high quality team (in IL's case, one win against WI and another high quality OOC win against NC)

Record between ILL/MSU/PSU/Mich

Mich 5-1
IL 3-3
PSU 3-3
MSU 2-5

It will be interesting to see what happens with those 4 teams.

Anonymous said...

I'm quite certain the committee will be aware that Purdue is a home warrior with a bunch of wins over teams seeded 10-13.

AG said...

You know at this rate the committee might as well let people vote American Idol style for the last 4 in!

Bracketology 101 said...

@ 11:44 AM - We wouldn't call Clemson or St. Mary's safe either.

FranchiseJC said...

B101, what is the B10 bubble pecking order in your opinion?

royal8085 said...

I may be crazy but I think UAB will get a bid over Georgia/Alabama. My guess is the two ACC bubble teams (Va Tech/Clemson) vs St Mary's/UAB with Colorado just missing out on the first 4.

royal8085 said...

I should say Colorado being team #33, so the last at-large into the main draw.

Anonymous said...

Hey B101, I really enjoy your site, analysis and writing. Thanks for all your work!

Anonymous said...

If Penn State beats Ohio State today, that will be an 8-2 last 10 with 6 of those wins coming away from home, 7 of those wins coming against the RPI top 100, 4 against the top 50, and the only two losses coming against the top 16. Does that get PSU in top 8 seed discussion?

mag900 said...

B101, why do you say that the ACCT will determine the last 1 seed when the committee has repeatedly said that it is lazy and won't account for sunday's games unless there are bid stealers? in this case, it would be very easy -- if duke wins, it gets the 1 and ND is its 2 and, if duke loses, ND gets the 1 and duke is its 2. however, the committee likely won't do this simple binary contingency plan.

Will said...

What seed are we looking at with Memphis?

Joe said...

Jerry Palm's final bracket is hilarious.

SD State as a 1? Syracuse as a 2? Both Wisconsin and Purdue as 3s? UNC a 4? Old Dominion a 5? There is so much good stuff.

Anonymous said...

Where will Boston university be playimg

ivarngizteb said...

How on earth can you justify the Monarchs as a 5? That makes no sense.

Joe said...

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Here is the link to Palm's bracket.

f said...

What are your percent chances that Louisville, Kentucky, and Purdue play in Chicago first round

Anonymous said...

Jerry Palm's final bracket is hilarious.

SD State as a 1? Syracuse as a 2? Both Wisconsin and Purdue as 3s? UNC a 4? Old Dominion a 5? There is so much good stuff.
________________________

Agreed, never even heard of this guy til this was posted in here.

After reading his joke of a bracket, now I know WHY I've never heard of him. lol.

Anonymous said...

I really hope they don't put two Kentucky schools playing each other first round? (Morehead vs UK)

GO BIG BLUE said...

I'm really confused this afternoon. Lunardi has ODU falling to a 9 seed...he's had us at a 8 forever. So that made no sense. CBS has us at a 5 today. I find that hard to believe also. I really see ODU as a 7. Why do you think there is such a difference in their seeding?

Anonymous said...

Zero percent chance that Purdue, Louisville, and Kentucky all play in Chicago. That would require at least one of them to be a 5 seed.

Anonymous said...

B101-What do you think Alabama's conference record would be if they were in the Big East? Second question-If Alabama had played a good game yesterday-say competitive throughout and a loss by single digits, does that really change the committee's mind...

JGibson said...

Jerry Palm was the first to calculate the RPI and make the list available to the whole public. This was back in '93 or so. He managed to eventutually turn that into his collegerpi.com site. That's why he is known, and why CBS picked him up.

I agree that his recent picks (the past few years) have seemed weird.

zlionsfan said...

Well, B101 had Purdue as the last 4 seed yesterday, so it's not impossible that events since then could drop them one more spot to a 5.

f said...

Notre Dame is a lock for Chicago who else do you all think will go there Purdue, Louisville, or Kentucky

Anonymous said...

Now that SDSU is likely a 2 seed, do you see them being in the SW region and then BYU being a likely 3 seed in the W?

Anonymous said...

Any thoughts on K-State's seed/location? Thank you.

AG said...

Richmond just can't seem to put Dayton away...

Anonymous said...

That's easy-Anonymous 1:14

Below .500 and NIT(Not in the tournament)!

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't be surprised if SD State is a little lower than expected. They have a gaudy record, but who have they beaten? UNLV, Gonzaga, and BYU without Davies. Doesn't seem like a 2 seed.

Anonymous said...

Also, @Cal and against SMC. Not bad, I think they are a pretty firm 2 seed.

Anonymous said...

Any chance washington could sneak into the 7 seed and avoid the 8/9 game?

Anonymous said...

Washington beat nobody out of conference and have struggled down the stretch, they should be a 10 seed.

Anonymous said...

RPIratings.com says SDSU has the 29th SOS, better than Duke, Pitt, and ND.

f said...

With Kentucky winning sec championship do they jump in front of Louisville?

Anonymous said...

B101-Do you think St. Mary's inexplicable loss to San Diego put them on the bubble?

Anonymous said...

@1:36...

Struggled down the stretch? I guess that stretch doesn't include the Pac 10 tournament?

Conor said...

Weird question, maybe somone can answer for me. I believe 78 was the first year the field was seeded. How were the matchups determined befor that?

Brad said...

1 Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2 Seeds- Notre Dame, UNC, Syracuse, SDSU
3 Seeds- Florida, Texas, UCONN, Louisville
4 Seeds- Purdue, Wisconsin, BYU, Kentucky,
5 Seeds- St. John's, Arizona, West Virginia, Georgetown,
6 Seeds- Vandy, Cincinati, Texas A&M, Temple
7 Seeds- Kansas State, Xavier, ODU, Missouri,
8 Seeds- UCLA, George Mason, Washington, UNLV,
9 Seeds- Tennessee, Utah State, Marquette, Villanova,
10 Seeds- Florida State, Illinois, Michigan, Richmond,
11 Seeds- Gonzaga, Butler, Penn State, Michigan State
12 Seeds- Memphis, Virginia Tech, (Saint Mary's vs. Colorado), (Clemson vs. Georgia)
13 Seeds- Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
14 Seeds- Bucknell, Long Island, Wofford, Akron
15 Seeds- Morehead State, Saint Peter's, UC Santa Barbara, Boston U
16 Seeds- Northern Colorado, Texas San Antonio, (UNC-Asheville vs. Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State)

Last 4 bye:
Michigan
Penn State
MSU
VT

Last 4 in:
Colorado
Clemson
St. Mary's
Georgia

First 4 out:
Alabama
UAB
VCU
USC

Next 4 out:
BC
Missouri State
Harvard
New Mexico

Dan H. said...

I'm guessing that OSU is probably the #1 overall seed regardless of what happens today because of the committee not taking the late game into account (unless it's to put an at large bid in).

mag900 said...

is duke the 3rd or 4th 1 seed now?

AG said...

All right, time to give Duke a #1. No reason a 6-loss ND that didn't make the Big East final should get it after what just happened in Greensboro.

And that will be the end of the Dayton Flyers.

Anonymous said...

I dont see how sdst can be a 2?

1 win vs ranked opponent...1

best win ooc is gonzaga..

they will be a 3

mag900 said...

did lunardi get a new rug for today?

Dustin said...

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2's: Notre Dame, Texas, North Carolina, San Diego St
3's: Syracuse, Florida, Connecticut, Louisville
4's: Purdue, BYU, Kentucky, Wisconsin
5's: Texas A&M, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Villanova
9's: George Mason, Washington, Florida State, UCLA
10's: Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, Gonzaga
11's: Richmond, Michigan State, Butler, Memphis
12's: Clemson, Colorado, (Penn State vs St. Mary’s), (Virginia Tech vs Alabama)
13's: Princeton, Belmont, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St, Akron
15's: St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford, Boston
16's: UNC-Asheville, Hampton, (UCSB vs UTSA), (UALR vs Alabama St)

AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Michigan, Michigan State, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN: Penn State, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s, Alabama
FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, UAB, Boston College, USC
NEXT FOUR OUT: VCU, UTEP, New Mexico, Missouri State

This is final if OSU wins. If PSU wins, swap them with Colorado so that PSU avoids a first four game.

mag900 said...

dude, would you stop posting your ridiculous brackets on here? syracuse is not going to be ahead of uconn.

give me the brandy said...

I'd put Duke as the 4th one seed, with Pitt as the 3rd and ND as the 2 in Duke's region. Pitt still has more quality wins in a tougher conference, especially on the road, where Duke didn't have one win against a tournament team (unless you count K-St).

Collin said...

1 Seeds- Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2 Seeds- Notre Dame, San Diego State, Syracuse, UCONN
3 Seeds- UNC, Florida, Kentucky, Texas,
4 Seeds- Purdue, Louisville, Wisconsin, BYU
5 Seeds- St. John's, Arizona, West Virginia, Vandy,
6 Seeds- Georgetown, Cincinati, Texas A&M, Temple
7 Seeds- Kansas State, Xavier, ODU, Missouri,
8 Seeds- UCLA, George Mason, Washington, UNLV,
9 Seeds- Tennessee, Utah State, Marquette, Villanova,
10 Seeds- Florida State, Illinois, Michigan, Richmond,
11 Seeds- Gonzaga, Butler, Michigan State, Colorado,
12 Seeds- Memphis, Virginia Tech, (Saint Mary's vs. Penn State), (Clemson vs. Georgia)
13 Seeds- Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Indiana State
14 Seeds- Bucknell, Long Island, Wofford, Akron
15 Seeds- Morehead State, Saint Peter's, UC Santa Barbara, Boston U
16 Seeds- Northern Colorado, Texas San Antonio, (UNC-Asheville vs. Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State)

Anonymous said...

SDSU has a RPI of 3...they should be a #2 seed dummy!!!!

mag900 said...

"Duke didn't have one win against a tournament team (unless you count K-St)."

why would you not call KSU a tournament team? or marquette? or UNC? or mich st? or butler? or temple? or va tech?

nice well thought out post you have there.

Anonymous said...

I would say Uk is a 3.

f said...

who will be a higher seed louisville or kentucky?

give me the brandy said...

"on the road" being the key qualifier, the Kansas St game was in Kansas, but not a *true* road game.

Chase said...

I think Louisville gets squeezed to a 4 with Kentucky winning.

Duke to a 1. Notre Dame to a 2. Florida to a 3. UConn to a 2.

Anonymous said...

Sprint Center is in Missouri "truly."

f said...

Who is a higher seed Louisville or Kentucky?

Boomass said...

In 2005, Kansas was #1 in the RPI and got a 3 seed.

Eric J. said...

<<<"Duke didn't have one win against a tournament team (unless you count K-St)."

why would you not call KSU a tournament team? or marquette? or UNC? or mich st? or butler? or temple? or va tech?

nice well thought out post you have there.>>>

I think the quote you pulled started a few words too late. What the poster wrote was "especially on the road, where Duke didn't have one win..."

The K-State comet was probably in reference to the K-State win coming at a neutral site, as did today's UNC win (the previous UNC win was at Cameron). All the team's losses (FSU, St. Johns, VTech, and UNC) were at the other team's place. It's a good point ... Duke wasn't a great road team this year.

Ahem ... nice well-thought-out post you have there.

Anonymous said...

How many times does f have to ask about Kentucky, Louisville, and Purdue?

Anonymous said...

Duke not a 1 seed in Joe's bracket.

mag900 said...

joey brackets is picking ND as a the 3rd 1 and pitt as the 4th 1.

Anonymous said...

Kentucky deserves a 4 seed. 10-6 in an awful conference doesn't cut it.

Anonymous said...

Joey brackets is right then if you look at resumes and not the name on jersey. Who in the hell has Duke beaten? They didn't even finish first in the ACC during the regular season. Got spanked by St John's. Duke would've been 12-6 in the Big East.

Anonymous said...

committee loves duke tho so arent they projecting what the committee will do?

mag900 said...

"Joey brackets is right then if you look at resumes and not the name on jersey. Who in the hell has Duke beaten? They didn't even finish first in the ACC during the regular season. Got spanked by St John's. Duke would've been 12-6 in the Big East."

um, did you watch espn today? duke beat unc twice. that's rpi #6 unc.

the ACC rightly doesn't recognize a regular season champion so finishing 1 game behind a team you split with is not that big of a deal (particularly when unc didn't have to play at va tech).

duke also beat marquette, a team that ND and uconn lost too. the transitive property doesn't exactly work too well in college basketball.

Brad said...

I'm a little miffed at all the uconn -> 2 seed business. Let's not forgot, they were 9th in the Big East.

Granted, all their losses are against tourney teams and they looked impressive in the Big East tourney, but I still see them as a 3. Thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Committee does love duke. They had no where near the resume of Syracuse last year, yet placed Duke ahead of Syracuse on the S curve.

mag900 said...

uconn also beat texas on the road, which is huge and not something too many other teams did.

Anonymous said...

UNC's going to be lower than we all think. They beat Duke and Kentucky at home. That's it. Not much else to their resume.

Brad said...

The Texas win is very nice, no doubt about it. I still think you're not getting a 2 seed if you go 9-9 in your conference, though. Even if it is the #1 conference. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

syracuse a 4 in joe's bracket! a&m a 5

Anonymous said...

Bracketology 101,

What is the probability that the Gaels make it in with the Dayton loss? Would they be a 12 seed in a play-in round?

Thanks,
Nervous GAEL FAN

mag900 said...

"They had no where near the resume of Syracuse last year, yet placed Duke ahead of Syracuse on the S curve."

another moronic post. duke had an rpi of 3 and was 29-5. syracuse had an rpi of 5 and was 28-4. duke won the acct. syracuse did not win the bet. sounds pretty clear that duke SHOULD have been ahead of syracuse last year.

Anonymous said...

Duke beat absolutely no one before the NCAA tourney last year. Most bracketologists (including B101) debated whether Duke or West Virginia were the last #1.

Anonymous said...

And then Duke was given a cakewalk to the Final Four last year in the easiest bracket.

DCDuck said...

One day Lunardi gets the hots for Southern Cal and suddenly everyone and their mom puts USC on the bubble? They have five top-50 wins countered by six (six!) losses outside the top-100, including three outside the top-200. How does anyone even try to justify a 20-point home loss to Rider, or getting swept by Oregon?

DCDuck said...

Does anyone remember that marquee win that Clemson got as the highlight of its resume?

Neither do I.

And it's not like they had a lack of opportunities. Three games against UNC and one against Duke, and they couldn't capitalize on any of them. Yeah, they play teams close, but "close" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Collin said...

I think that it is halarious that they showed the possible one seeds on the tv broadcast and did not include San Diego State, yet their own resisent bracketologist has them as a one seed? How can that even happen LOL.

mag900 said...

"And then Duke was given a cakewalk to the Final Four last year in the easiest bracket."

that's easy to say in hindsight. do you really think that kansas had any business being in the FF when it couldn't beat wichita state?

Jeb McRary said...

"And then Duke was given a cakewalk to the Final Four last year in the easiest bracket."

I love how people still act as if the NCAA just gave Duke a national title last year. I seem to recall Duke and Kansas being neck and neck all year long in most computer ratings such as Sagarin and KenPom.

Derek said...

Clemson doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the bubble. USC either. You can't ignore 0 top 50 wins (Clemson) and 6 bad losses (USC)

Anonymous said...

Georgia better get in..not Clemson.

Anonymous said...

Mag900 - Glad to see you're continuing your irritating posts from last year.

Anonymous said...

In a one and done tourney, the best team does not always win.

Apissedant said...

mag900,

Learn to spell "to".

"Too" means also.

Also, since when is 29-5 better than 28-4? I'm not sure how that particular statistic spoke to your case.

Anonymous said...

For most of last year, Kansas, Syracuse, and Kentucky were the consensus top 3 teams.

Dustin said...

mag is just a miserable person, its best to ignore people like that.

Anonymous said...

Clemson won four games against teams ranked from 51 to 61 in the team RPI rankings (4-1 overall). Tigers are in the tournament at this point. No doubt. Probably in Dayton but they are in.

mag900 said...

"mag900,
Learn to spell "to".
"Too" means also.
Also, since when is 29-5 better than 28-4? I'm not sure how that particular statistic spoke to your case."

i'm aware of how to spell "to." unlike you, i also am aware of the difference between "too" and "to" and when to use each one. could you be any more of a moron? seriously?

also, 29-5 is better than 28-4 when the team's rpi is 2 points higher and the team won its BCS conference tournament when the other one didn't. being able to read is a valuable skill on here. try and learn it at some point.

LFCtvUSA said...

Well, I'm guessing Duke is on the top line now, right?

Apissedant said...

Dustin,

You are correct... but he likes to point out grammatical mistakes that others make. I just thought it was important to show him that he also makes mistakes.

I will do my best to avoid responding when he eventually answers with an irrelevant and moronic retort.

mag900 said...

"mag is just a miserable person, its best to ignore people like that."

not miserable. i, along with a lot of other people, read b101 to get b101's brackets and analysis -- not randos who want to post their own incorrect brackets ad infinitum.

Apissedant said...

Sorry Dustin, I need to quote him.


mag900,
"duke also beat marquette, a team that ND and uconn lost too. the transitive property doesn't exactly work too well in college basketball."

mag900 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mag900 said...

"You are correct... but he likes to point out grammatical mistakes that others make. I just thought it was important to show him that he also makes mistakes."

except that you are so clueless, you incorrectly "pointed out" a non grammar mistake. and, yes, opinions of people who don't understand the difference between "their" and "there" (who then chalk it up to a "typo" and not stupidity) and "to" and "too" should not be given very much weight.

Anonymous said...

Mag900 - Glad to see you're continuing your irritating posts from last year.

Anonymous said...

This is not English 101.

Anonymous said...

How high of a seed can Penn state get if they beat osu?

Dustin said...

I never asked you to read my bracket. I'm guessing it takes you all of 1 second to skip over it and continue on, however you obviously read it because you have something to say about it everytime I post it. Thus, aren't you really wasting your own time willingly? I know, crazy right?

If B101 didn't want me to do it, Id be glad to stop.

Collin said...

Probly an 11 seed maybe a 10

TheAnswer1313 said...

I got Syracuse a 2 as well lol.

I know that's not gonna happen but look at the resume. IF UNC gets a 2 how could Cuse not?

People putting way too much stock in last few games. Its the same way Nova will get underrated as will Georgetown.

Will said...

I believe before 1978 the teams were separated by geographical region.

George said...

I predict they'll put Penn St in regardless of what happens here to make it easier on themselves.

Will said...

Joe Lunardi is an idiot. ND has so many top 50 wins because they've played so many top 50 teams.

ND 11-5(.6875)
Duke 8-2(.8000)

Collin said...

19 minutes until B101's self imposed deadline!!!

Collin said...

14 minutes

Anonymous said...

my main concern is the geography portion. are certain pods to be in certain regions?

Anonymous said...

What?

AG said...

Syracuse as a number 2? What an apt description of their jump shooting ability!

Anonymous said...

Alright, where's this bracket...

Collin said...

7 minutes

Anonymous said...

5 minutes

zachary said...

what seed do the 3 A 10 teams get

Will said...

Dear Collin,

We all have a computer here, and it has the time on the screen. We don't need a countdown. Thank you.

MichigIN said...

@ 3:47

The pods can be in any region now. They stopped using a certain two pods for one region beginning with the 2002 season.

Collin said...

hey I'm excited don't ruin it for me!!! plzkthx luv you too!

volzzilla said...

are certain designated pods supposed to be for certain regions and certain seeds?

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