Sunday, March 06, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 7

It seems like a lot more than a week has passed since our last bracket, considering how many crucial games were played throughout the college basketball world. At times during the week, it looked like we would have to do a major overhaul to the bottom of the bracket, but ultimately, the seeds towards the top of the bracket actually saw the most changes. On each of our 3-8 lines, three of the four teams there this week weren't there last week. That's a crazy amount of movement that high in the bracket, especially this late in the season.

The only at-large teams that fell out of last week's bracket were Virginia Tech and Baylor. Virginia Tech was replaced by Boston College after the Eagles' 2-0 week, which included a road win against the Hokies. Virginia Tech would have still remained in the bracket, but we think their loss to Clemson may have been a bubble-bursting one. The Hokies have to win their first ACC tourney game against Georgia Tech to have any chance, and then likely will need to take down Florida State in the quarterfinals to secure a bid. We are not too confident in their ability to win that game against the 'Noles, so we left the Hokies out. The likely matchup between Boston College and Clemson in the quarterfinals is basically a tourney play-in game. (A play-in for a play-in?)

Baylor had a disasterous week, losing both of its games, and it will now take a run to the Big XII final to get them back into the discussion. The Bears ended up being replaced by UAB, who clinched the outright Conference USA title this week. We think that title should get them an at-large, as long as they avoid a loss in their first conference tourney game. We also included UTEP in the bracket as a bid-stealer out of C-USA. The Miners will be playing the conference tourney on their home floor, and with the draw they have, we like their chances. Elsewhere on the bubble, Michigan's win over Michigan State moved them ahead of the Spartans in the Big Ten pecking order and pushed Michigan State down to the Last Four In line. Alabama held onto their bid because of their victory over Georgia this weekend. The Tide will likely need to beat the Bulldogs again in their first SEC tourney game to secure their bid. Colorado, meanwhile, barely held onto their bid after their disappointing lose at Iowa State. The Buffs will get a rematch with the Cyclones in their first Big XII tourney game and then will look to beat Kansas State for the third time in the quarterfinals. A win in that game would lock down their bid.

We will update our bracket every day this week and our final bracket will be posted in the mid-afternoon on Selection Sunday. Enjoy the madness of Championship Week...

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

Michigan State, Alabama, Boston College, Colorado

First Four Out
Virginia Tech, Clemson, USC, Missouri State

Next Four Out
Penn State, VCU, Colorado State, Washington State

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, West Virginia, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - George Mason, Old Dominion

Conference USA - UTEP, UAB

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - Iona

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune Cookman

MVC - Indiana State

MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Charleston

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - North Texas

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue

The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas

The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John's, Kentucky

The 5s
West Virginia, Xavier, Arizona, Connecticut

The 6s
Kansas State, Cincinnati, Temple, Georgetown

The 7s
Texas A&M, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Villanova

The 8s
UNLV, Missouri, Old Dominion, Utah State

The 9s
George Mason, Illinois, Florida State, Tennessee

The 10s
Richmond, Washington, Gonzaga, Butler

The 11s
Michigan, St. Mary's, Georgia, Marquette

The 12s
UAB, Michigan State vs. Alabama (FF), Boston College vs. Colorado (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont,
Princeton, Oakland, Charleston

The 14s
Iona, Bucknell, Kent State, Indiana State

The 15s
Morehead State,
Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, North Texas, UNC-Asheville vs. McNeese State (FF), Texas Southern vs. Bethune Cookman (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

189 comments:

Anonymous said...

Penn State need to make the finals to get an at-large?

Bracketology 101 said...

A finals run would mean at large, especially if their semifinal win is against Purdue. Only two wins would probably get them squeezed out.

John said...

Butler is a 10 seed? Does that mean it will make the tourney as an at-large if it loses in the conference tourney final? (BTW, 10 seed does look bit high to me)

Bracketology 101 said...

The 10 seed is assuming that Butler beats Milwaukee. It wouldn't be a sure thing but so long as they didn't get blown out against Milwaukee we would like their chances.

Reign of Troy said...

Can USC make the tournament if they get to the Pac-10 finals?

Bracketology 101 said...

That should be enough for USC.

Chase said...

Michigan loses to Illinois and is out?

Alabama needs to beat Georgia again to feel safe?

Thrilled you didn't have Baylor anywhere on this list. Terrible.

You have UTEP projected to win the CUSA? I just don't see it, even though the tourney is in El-Paso.

Dustin said...

I hope Boston can at least move up to a 15 seed. They have a bunch of crappy guys, true, but they also have two legitimate ball players who can play against anyone and Id like to see them take a team down to the wire.

Evan said...

Psu should only need to win their first 2...a trip to the semi's should be enough...

...Barring other bubble action.

Anonymous said...

What is the assumption for BYU's 2 seed and SDSU's 3 seed? I think it is going to be hard to beat New Mexico or Colorado State one day and then SDSU or UNLV the next.

Dustin said...

I don't see how BYU can end up as a 2 seed with SDSU as a 3 seed. If BYU beats SDSU again, BYU can be a 2, but then SDSU is a 4. If SDSU wins, I think that makes them both 3s.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Michigan lost to Illinois they would probably still get in unless bubble teams below them do well in their conference tournies or there are a few bid stealers.

Alabama definetely needs to beat Georgia again to feel safe. Alabama will need that game more than Georgia.

If UTEP doesn't end up being a bid stealer than VCU or Milwaukee very well could be one. So there likely isn't anymore room in our bracket for bubble teams.

Chase said...

BU will more than likely be a 15 or a 16 who isn't in the play-in.

Your 16's will be from the MEAC, Southland, SWAC, UNC-Asheville, Sun Belt winner (whoever it is will have a RPI of over 200) and then it'll be whomever wins the American East, Big Sky or the NEC Champion. The American East is terrible this year.

Here's my bracket.

The 1's - Ohio State, Pitt, Kansas, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, Texas, North Carolina, Syracuse
The 3's - Purdue, BYU, Florida, San Diego State
The 4's - Wisconsin, Louisville, Georgetown, Kentucky
The 5's - St Johns, Vanderbilt, UConn, WVU
The 6's - Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State, Cincinnati
The 7's - Temple, UCLA, UNLV, Texas A&M
The 8's - Arizona, Old Dominion, Missouri, Illinois
The 9's - Utah State, George Mason, Florida State, Richmond
The 10's - Tennessee, Butler, Georgia, Marquette
The 11's - Washington, Gonzaga, Boston College, St. Mary's
The 12's - Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama, UAB
The 13's - Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, College of Charleston
The 14's - Iona, Bucknell, Indiana State, Long Beach State
The 15's - Morehead State, Kent State, Boston U, Long Island
The 16's - Middle Tennessee State, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Last 4 in: Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama
Last 4 out: Colorado State, Virginia Tech, Missouri State, Penn State
Next 6 out: VCU, UTEP, USC, Nebraska, Washington State, New Mexico
On Life Support: Baylor, Minnesota, Memphis, Duquesne, Oklahoma State
Season Ended: Cleveland State, Wichita State

Bracketology 101 said...

If SDSU beats BYU in the final they could get a 2. If SDSU does lose to BYU in the final then they may drop to a 4. If BYU plays well in the tourney and loses in the final they will likely get a 3.

Chase said...

Does Butler get in if they lose to Milwaukee? I mean, 3 losses to Milwaukee?

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Butler

61st in KenPom's ranking (a site that the committee uses). If they lose (which I don't think they will), they would have only beaten 1 tournament team (Florida State, average). They have a pretty hollow resume.

Michael said...

Purdue with no road wins over seeds better than 9 in the bracket...and they stay on the 2 line after the loss at Iowa? Yikes.

John said...

How far will Colorado State/New Mexico have to go in MWC tourney to be considered for an at-large? semi? final?

Dustin said...

@John

They would probably have to make the Finals while beating one of the big teams on the way there.

Bracketology 101 said...

Butler question answered above.

We didn't like Purdue on the 2 line either but didn't feel any of the teams on the 3 line could move up.

CSU and UNM need to make finals runs to get an at large.

Chase said...

I mean if Butler loses to UW-Milwaukee for a 3rd time they'll get in on name alone. Look at Penn State and Butler's profile. Logarithm says Penn State is a top 53 school - 8 spots better than Butler. No bias with logarithm.

The knock on Penn State is the bad losses - Maine at home. Butler lost to Youngstown State, who shouldn't even be Division 1. Penn State has better wins. By a mile.

Michael said...

Fair enough on the Purdue situation...

Two more opinion, big-picture type questions if you have time at some point (thanks for the excellent, hard work and a fun site).

1) What is the committee likely to do in a situation like Georgetown's where a key injury looks very problematic and the team SAYS that the player will likely be back for NCAAT play? Is it enough to say it, or does he have to actually return and play in the conference tournament? Or even play well?

2) Is Chicago the most highly desired site, demand wise? ND is a shoo-in so is it simply a matter of which of Purdue or Wisky goes further/wins the semi? What are other sites are seeing relatively high/low demand from top-4 line teams?

Lastly (on a different vein) can we get some more Q for the Competiton this week? I'm sure it's a busy time, but if ever there's an important time to watch sneaky Joe, this is it!

Dustin said...

I agree about Butler getting in on name alone if they lose to Milwaukee. They haven't done much of anything this year, and that would be 3 losses to a team that wouldnt even sniff an at-large spot.

I hope Butler wins just to get rid of this problem.

Dan said...

You've got ND, Duke, BYU, Syracuse and Purdue as the 4-8 overall seeds. How many teams realistically are still fighting for the last #1? Or, maybe put in a more answerable format, what do the teams behind ND need to do to catch the Irish?

If ND loses in the finals, I think only Duke could catch ND, by winning the ACC title. I don't think Syracuse winning over ND in the finals, or Purdue/BYU winning their conference tournaments would be enough to pass ND if ND made it to the finals, but that's probably debatable.

If ND loses in the semis, Duke *might* be able to catch ND by getting to the finals and losing, but it'd be pretty close since ND would get a decent win in the quarters (Cinci/Nova), while Duke gets one bad win (Terps), and one decent one (FSU). BYU/Syracuse/Purdue could also win their conference tournament to pass ND (BYU would need to look very good and convince us UNM was a fluke). What other teams have any chance to catch ND/Duke for that last 1 seed? Texas maybe with a conf championship and ND bowing out in the semis and Duke/BYU/Cuse/Purdue not winning the tournament? (Not inconceivable: UNC, SDSU, Pitt, OSU could run their tournaments, leaving that second group empty handed) Maybe Louisville as well, with a head to head win over ND in the semis?

If ND loses in the quarters, the door is open for just about anyone that wants to walk through and win their conf tournament.

Chase said...

My only gripe about Penn State is I think they could win a game or two in the tournament while I think the likes of Butler, Alabamer, Colorado State, BC are all one and done. Talor Battle is a guy I want to see get in the tournament. Same with Burks from Colorado.

Dan said...

@Michael - Denver and Anaheim both only have 1 team on the slate, and Tampa is short as well.

From the current top 16 teams:
The 1s
Ohio State (Cleveland), Kansas (Tulsa), Pittsburgh (Clev), Notre Dame (Chi)

The 2s
Duke (Charlotte), BYU (Denver), Syracuse (DC), Purdue (Chi)

The 3s
North Carolina (Charlotte), San Diego State (Tuscon), Florida (Tampa), Texas (Tulsa)

Leaving 1 Denver, 1 Tuscon, 1 Tampa and 1 DC for the 4 seeds. Good luck figuring out who gets sent where. Probably the Johnnies to DC and Kentucky to Tampa, while Wiscy and Louisville get launched to the West?
The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John's, Kentucky

DCDuck said...

Richmond has a win over Purdue and... erm... um... a win over Purdue!

Really, a 10? How is their resume that much better than Colorado State's?

George Mason seems high as a 9. They have one top-50 win (vs. ODU) and two sub-100 losses (NC State, Wofford, both neutral-court). Add in a SoS of 92 and you have a team that's much more suited for a 10 or 11.

matt r said...

Dan,

You've got the top 12 team sites right on. I like Louisville for DC since they are the #13 overall, and then of the remaining three it is sort of a wash, so I like Kentucky to Tampa since UK is closest and SJ+Wisconsin out west.

John said...

Surprised that KState is higher than Georgetown in your S-curve. Care to elaborate?

conference lines said...

Hi
I read your blog and found it very informative and helpful to me .Thanks for such an effort

Eric Z said...

OK, a question about the First Four matchups.

I'm starting to be more and more convinced that the committee will make a statement with the games involving the final at-larges.

Didn't the NCAA say the designed these games to try to have a mid major face a high major? Wasn't that an expressed purpose, or am I mis-remembering something that Seth Davis said?

If I am right, it seems the play in game is tailor-made for a team like Missouri St. Mid-major conference winner, conference has had success, not the best OOC performance......
wouldn't it make sense to have them match up against an at-large from the BCS leagues?

A Missouri St-Michigan matchup is completely more perferable than Alabama-Michigan. Same with Utah St, if they stumble. I'd watch Utah St-Boston College over Colorado-Boston College.

Did anyone else here this "desire" of the First Four, or am I misremembering things?

(and where are they going to place the winners? You can't ship them to Tucson...that's unfair. You can't put them in Cleveland, the closest location, since Ohio St and Pitt are there. Same with Chicago....I guess Charlotte and Washington are thenext logical locations.....)

Anonymous said...

Why is Clemson-BC a "play in" game?

March_24_7 said...

What about Memphis? 2 wins (vs teams that they were 4-0 against in the regular season) and they will make the championship game. A loss there and they finish with an RPI around 30 and 11 top 100 wins! Even just 1 win and their RPI will be sub-40!

How are they not atleast one of your last 8 out?

Bracketology 101 said...

It doesn't matter what Georgetown "says" about Wright coming back for the tourney. If the Hoyas aren't able to beat UConn on Wednesday they will likely end up on the 7 line.

Every year it seems like one of the western US sites is always the least desireable that's the case again with Tucson/Denver. Either Chicago or Cleveland is the most site after 1st round site overall.

It's tough to come up with a scenario where it's not ND or Duke getting the final 1 seed.

Richmond may be a weak 10, but who on the 11 line should be ahead of them?

Kansas State is peaking right now while G'town is faltering, that's why K State is higher.

Bracketology 101 said...

The loser of them Clemson-BC game this week is out of the tourney and the winner is in.

Bracketology 101 said...

Eric - most people just assumed the committee would want two mid-majors and two power confernence teams in the First Four games, but no official statement was ever made. All they've said is that the last four at-large teams in the field will compete in those games.

Bracketology 101 said...

Memphis has very nice computer numbers, but we can't get past the fact that they finished alone in fourth place in conference. Losing at Rice, at East Carolina, and at UTEP by 27 down the stretch didn't help their case much, either.

Anonymous said...

@Bracket101

So is it safe to assume that Pitt is locked into a #1 at this point even if they were to lose Thursday? With only ND and Duke fighting for that last # 1?

thanks...Ryan

Bracketology 101 said...

Yes, Ryan. The only 1 seed up for grabs right now is the last one, which will go to Notre Dame or Duke.

Amy Cima said...

Missouri State with an RPI of 37 should be in over Alabama and Colorado. It seems that the committee uses the RPI when it needs to to justify putting in "BCS" conference schools, but will ignore it in their justification to keep out "non-BCS" schools. BTW, I'm not a MVC or Missouri St. fan, just think it's odd that schools with such high RPIs are given more consideration than a school with an RPI in the mid-30s.

Anonymous said...

I hate VCU, but why is Va Tech considered ahead of them? Va Tech has 1 good win at home which was followed up by two horrid losses at the wrong time. VCU's RPI is 15 spots higher for a reason, they have solid wins @ODU, Mason neutral, Drexel neutral, @Wichita State and UCLA neutral to name a few.

Anonymous said...

Can ODU get a 7 seed with a win over VCU tonight?

Anonymous said...

Missouri State has been down this road before. I believe they were left out of the Big Dance a few years ago with a much higher RPI (something like 20).

Anonymous said...

Can ODU get higher than an 8 seed please?

26-6, 24 RPI, 13 top 100 wins,OOC RPI of 12. 8 game winning streak, 5-0 on neutral courts against strong competition.

ODU beat Xavier on a neutral court convincingly, at least seed them near or above Xavier. ODU has a better A-10 record than Xavier.

Anonymous said...

I think ODU should get a 7 seed if they win the conference tourney tonight? Otherwise, I believe they are stuck on the 8-9 line.

Bracketology 101 said...

ODU probably deserves a 7 seed if they win tonight, but they could get bumped back down to a 8 depending on how the power conference teams on our 7 line fare in their conference tournaments.

Mike G said...

Can you explain Marquette as an 11? They just lost @ Seton Hall?? They should be lower.

Bracketology 101 said...

Marquette's an 11 (and not a 12) because they have more quality wins (ND, Cuse, WVU, at UConn) than any team on the 12 line.

Won't said...

"Missouri State has been down this road before. I believe they were left out of the Big Dance a few years ago with a much higher RPI (something like 20)."

Missouri State is the poster boy for being left out of the tournameent.

Michael said...

at what point is a quality win "offset" by a bad loss? Beat the #15 team but then lose to the #150 team, any better than beating the #30 team and losing to the #100 team?

I think people concentrate too much on who you beat but in my opinion a bad loss is just as damaging as a quality win is beneficial.

Won't said...

Michael, I agree. It's supposed to be a body of work resume, not just how many top 50 wins you have.

JGibson said...

I think Missouri State got robbed a few years ago. But, clearly, the committee was concerned about putting in more than 4 MVC teams that year and Missouri State was team #5. Remember, the committee actually took a beating on CBS for even putting 4 MVC teams in the tournament int the first place. This year, however, Missouri State doesn't really have the #s. Yes, they are #42 in RPI (according to warrennolan.com), but are also 0-1 against the top 50. That's only 1 game against the top 50. That's exactly the type of thing that knocks teams down compared to their raw RPI ranking. Alabama and Colorado, while down in the 70s for RPI, are 3-3 against the top 50 and 5-6 against the top 50, respectively.

Won't said...

Agreed, Missouri State in 2006 (when they had 4 top 50 rpi wins and ZERO sub-top 50 rpi losses) is different from Missouri State in 2011.

JGibson said...

I think bad losses only offset quality wins for the top teams. Bad losses are damaging to teams fighting for #1 and #2 seeds. Bad losses tend to be ignored for bubble teams because virtually all of them have bad losses. As Jay Bilas likes to say, "all these teams showed they can lose, I'm interested in seeing which ones can win against top competition."

Anonymous said...

If UNC wins the ACCT, can they get a run assuming ND doesn't win the Big East.

TheAnswer1313 said...

I agree about the bad losses should count for something. The whole body of work should be assessed. But I guess you get to a point where your looking at what separates the teams from just getting in to just being out. At that point, alot of teams will have bad losses. The committee IMO is trying to put in teams at that point who have shown they could knock off a big school, thus the reason big wins count more than bad losses.

It should be equal to a certain extent, but I'm just not sure I believe that to be the case at all.

Mike G said...

Fair enough. Could you see them dropping out if they lose to the Friars?

Won't said...

Maybe, although the committee has also tended to zap bubble teams that have played weak non-con schedules, even if they have a couple of good wins in conference.

I think the trouble with just looking at good wins is that teams in power conferences always get more opportunity to win "big games" at home, which is far different from having to win them on the road or on neutral floors.

Anonymous said...

Sorry but there is no way that Georgetown is in danger of the 7 line even if they lose on Wednesday. Look at that resume.

AG said...

On the other hand, a team with both good wins and bad losses could present questions about how well they're playing right now, which is why they used to look at last 10-12 games.

At some point the selection committee is going to be all like "I can't believe we're debating Colorado, Alabama, Penn State, and Virginia Tech" and will just decide to go with the mid-majors instead. Don't count out VCU and Missouri State yet.

That being said, there's a difference between a strong mid-major who is playing well toward the end of the season and a mid-major who just got pasted on the road a bunch of times to game the RPI. Ever since the RPI was changed to emphasize road wins and home losses Missouri Valley teams that play a ton of true road games tend to have inflated ratings. The weaker major conference teams still think they have to purchase a 20 win season to save their coaches' jobs while the elite major conference teams play a lot of neutral court games against each other.

mag900 said...

everyone should know that winning the ACCT is the same as making it to the finals on sunday because the committee is lazy and only will change seedings on sunday to account for bid stealers. it's why at least one of the BCS schools moved its tournament finals to saturday. this all means that duke only has to get to the finals to get the last 1 seed (and then can get thumped by unc).

Won't said...

AG, just another reason the RPI should be scrapped in favor of a reliable ratings system.

JGibson said...

There's a lot of debate for what should and should not be looked at. I wouldn't look at the RPI at all, and would instead use something else for "should." But we are trying debate what is looked at. And, yes, I agree major conferences have an advantage. Especially when you have a bunch of RPI 30-50 teams, and then those teams all rack up top 50 wins against each other.

Ever since the RPI got changed, I feel like the raw RPI has meant even less, and the actual W-L against the RPI top 25, top 50, etc. has meant more. That's why I think Alabama, Colorado, and U$C have a better chance than Missouri State.

The other thing to look at when you get down to the end is record vs. teams in the tournament or under consideration instead of just top 50. I think that may help Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, as all are likely to still be under consideration. It's also likely to hurt CUSA teams, as I think some of the top 50 wins against Marshall, for example, may be disregarded.

Won't said...

"I agree major conferences have an advantage. Especially when you have a bunch of RPI 30-50 teams, and then those teams all rack up top 50 wins against each other."

Right, when you have bubble teams splitting with each other, it really doesn't tell you a thing. Yet each team gets one "quality win".

By the way, someone needs to trademark the term "quality win".

Anonymous said...

Va Tech is 2-7 against teams currently projected to play in the NCAA.

They have proven that they would be a decent NIT team.

Snapple said...

On the weekend questions, you were wondering if Missouri State could get a bid if they lost in the semi-finals. Well, Missouri State made it to the finals and lost close, so why are they not even close to being in, B101?

Bracketology 101 said...

If Marquette loses to Providence, there's a good chance they get squeezed out. If they win that game, they're safe.

Bracketology 101 said...

We asked that question about Missouri State because some people think the Bears should be in solely because they won the MVC regular season. We disagree with that assessment and don't think Missouri State deserves an at-large. That's why we have them as the fourth team out right now.

Anonymous said...

Is there any chance Illinois gets left out if, for example, Michigan and MSU make the finals of the Big Ten tournament.

Dave said...

What will happen to Illinois if they beat Michigan, or if they lose? I can't see them beating OSU so the best case scenario is winning one game. Am I crazy to think that being a 10 seed is better than a 8-9 so Illinois doesn't have to face OSU, Kansas or PIT in the next round?

ClubMedLar said...

Is Alabama going to be the team with the worst RPI to ever get an at large? Still can't believe they're anywhere near the tournament with that OOC resume.

Anonymous said...

If BC beats Wake, that gives them: 20 wins, winning record in the ACC (10-7) and a top 50 OOC win (Texas A&M). But if you are right and the Clemson/BC loser is out, BC would be the first ACC team ever to have a winning conf. record, 20 wins, a top 50 OOC win and get left out. So I'm asking: Are you dead sure if BC loses they're out?

Matt said...

B101, what needs to happen for Boston University to grab a 15 seed? Are they close?

mag900 said...

if BC beats wake, i can't see them being left out unless clemson blows them out and there are a lot of bid stealers. the ACC is historically bad this year but the bubble also has 3 extra slots this year. the texas a&m win is BC's winning lottery ticket this year.

Bracketology 101 said...

Illinois is going to have to win two Big Ten tourney games to get out of the 8/9 game. If the Illini lose to Michigan, they'll probably be a low 10/high 11.

Bracketology 101 said...

The worst RPI to ever receive an at-large bid was New Mexico in 1999, who had a 74 RPI. Alabama's currently at 80.

Rick said...

Georgetown as a 6 seed seems pretty ridiculous...is that assuming Georgetown informs the committee/news comes out that Chris Wright will not return this season?

Bracketology 101 said...

It depends on who wins the rest of the small conference tournaments, but BU could climb to a 15.

Anonymous said...

I'm very interested in the breakdown for the "ACC 3."

Virginia Tech scheduled the most aggressively OOC with Penn St, Mississippi St, Kansas St, Purdue, UNLV, and Oklahoma St, so that may earn them some brownie points.

Clemson played ODU and Michigan. Boston College played Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Cal, and Harvard. It looks like from a difficulty level VT, BC, Clemson should be the order. However, the RPI, being as stupid as it is feels BC's OOC SOS is a whopping 110 spots better than VT's because BC's impressive wins over St. Francis and UMass are considered much better than beating Longwood and Mt. St. Mary's. Why it really matters which terrible team you beat? I don't know, but the committee loves their flawed RPI system.

As for in conference performance, all went 9-7. One thing the committee loves is to look at how you did against the teams ahead of you in conference; in this case, UNC, Duke, and FSU. VT went 2-1, BC went 0-4, and Clemson went 1-4.

In head to head, the order is Clemson, BC, VT.

It will be interesting if it comes down to those teams... will the committee consider OOC scheduling and wins vs. the top of the conference more important or will head to head be the deciding factor?

Anonymous said...

What does Cincinnati need to do to grab a 5 seed?

Bracketology 101 said...

A loss to Clemson would knock BC to the Last Four Out list. They could still climb back in, but they would need help (other bubble teams to lose, no bid-stealers, etc.)

Nick said...

Re: Clemson and BC, I also don't understand the logic of declaring that game a "play-in game" five days before it happens without first acknowledging how drastically the bubble could change over the next week.

Bracketology 101 said...

A trip to the the Big East semis would definitely get Cincinnati a 5 seed. One win (over 'Nova) could get them there, but they'd more likely end up a 6.

mattlion said...

Chase said...
My only gripe about Penn State is I think they could win a game or two in the tournament while I think the likes of Butler, Alabamer, Colorado State, BC are all one and done. Talor Battle is a guy I want to see get in the tournament. Same with Burks from Colorado.


As a PSU grad that lives in Boston, I am very familiar with PSU and BC (they're my 2 favorite teams in college hoops). If PSU and BC played 10 times on a neutral court, I think BC would win 7 or 8 times. That's just my opinion.

BC has better coaching, better offensive weapons, and has proven they can beat real competition outside of their home arena. I wish I could say the same for my alma mater. Also, although Battle is a helluva player, BC's Reggie Jackson is nearly as explosive and entertaining to watch.

Obviously, both teams wish they had a few games back, but BC is in much better shape right now. If you want to do the common opponents thing, BC and PSU both played Wisconsin, Indiana, VT, and Maryland this season. BC went 5-1 in those games, PSU went 2-3.

Anonymous said...

The worst of many bad thins about the RPI, used in tandem with "strength of schedule" is that the RPI number of a given team is itself largely an expression of strength of schedule.
So, for instance, when MSU is touted as having a so-so RPI but a great SOS, the only reason their RPI is any good is BECAUSE they have a great SOS. It's double counting in the worst sor t of way.

Tico said...

Georgetown is #11 RPI with #1 SOS... Surely the committee will not 'reward' that with a 6 or 7 seed for losing a few games to top 25 teams when their starting pg was out (who will be back for ncaa)

Anonymous said...

I keep seeing St. John's getting shipped to Tucson as a four seed. I know the NCAA tries to minimize travel for all teams in the NCAA tournament. Ergo, how could it possibly make sense to send a "protected" seed, i.e. the pod "leader," a couple thousand miles away, nearly as far away as anybody else in the entire bracket? Wouldn't it make more sense from a logistics standpoint to send one of the midwest/southern schools out there or bump up or down one of the west of the Rockies schools rather than send the NYC school to Denver or Tucson rather than DC or even Florida?

Won't said...

"the RPI number of a given team is itself largely an expression of strength of schedule."

Correct, the RPI is 3/4 SOS. And the RPI SOS is misleading too because it has no home/road factor.

MyBrother53 said...

What are the reasons for Xavier being higher on the seed line than UC considering UC trounced them, has a similar record, and significantly more wins against better competition and no loss to Charlotte. Are all the sub 200+ wins really overcoming the top 25 wins?

AG said...

B101 forgot to mention that New Mexico's 74 RPI in 1999 got them a bid because they were the Mountain West regular season champ in the MWC's probational first year when the conference wasn't eligible for an automatic bid.

Anonymous said...

If BYU wins the MWC tourney (which I think is unlikely) it will be a nightmare for the committee on what to do with BYU. Especially, If Notre Dame and Duke go down early in their conference tournaments. I would love to be in the room with committee when they discuss BYU because its going to center on do you give them a pass for the New Mexico game or do you keep them off the #1 line because they still aren't as good with the loss of Davies. The race for the last 1 seed is going to be great.

Geoff said...

ACC questions: At this point in the season, how do you separate BC, VT and Clemson? Clemson beat both (at home) and BC swept VT. Clemson also split with FSU but then again VT beat Duke. Ken Pomeroy has Clemson, 32, VT 37 and BC 62. The unbalanced schedule wreaks havoc.

How high a seed can UNC get if they win the ACCT. Especially if ND doesn't win Big East and BYU falters early in their tourney.

Anonymous said...

Missouri States rpi is so high because they have played division 2 schools, since they do not have rpi's it is not put into the equation, making them seem to have a higher rpi and sos, then they really ever should.

matt r said...

Anonymous,

The thing to keep in mind is that the pod locations are assigned to the top 16 teams in S-curve order. Every year there are 2 pod locations out west, with 4 teams to be assigned, and almost every year there are not 4 teams to fill those spots. The 4-seeds (the bottom of that top 16) end up getting shipped out. The example for B101 today has St. John's at 15 overall so they are right at the end of the conversation. Louisville got the second DC slot because they are higher on the S-Curve, although the committee very well could do things a little differently given the same options to work with. In this respect though, sometimes it is better to be a 5 or 6-seed than a 4-seed. The one piece of good news is that the 1 through 5 seeds are guaranteed not to be at a "home court disadvantage" for their first game.

Tom said...

Re: Clemson, VT, BC

I look at their overall profile of wins and losses. BC has beaten the best teams when you use weighted RPI (accounting for where the game was played: home, neutral, or road). BC has won a good number of road games.

Clemson has the 2nd best wins by average weighted RPI. VT third.

If you want to look at who has lost to the "least" bad teams, BC and Clemson are almost tied (with BC being slightly better) on average weighted RPI to teams that beat them. VT is again behind them.

If you value signature wins, VT has Duke, BC has Texas A&M, and Clemson has FSU.

Right now I'd rank it as BC, Clemson, VT in terms of tourney worthiness. If BC wins against Wake in round 1 of the ACCT, I think they are 75% in regardless of the Clemson game. They've beaten, overall, much better teams than Clemson and VT if you believe in RPI data (an average of ~30RPI points lower than Clemson and 40 than VT).

But, if Clemson can beat BC in a neutral spot and do it convincingly, BC could end up NIT bound if some bubble stealin' goes on.

VT needs to win 2 games to be seriously in the conversation, I think.

On a different note, Alabama has no place in this tournament. They've lost 10 games and the average weighted RPI of those teams is 92! 15 points higher than almost any other bubble team; the teams they beat aren't great either (173 avg weighted RPI).

mattlion said...

ACC questions: At this point in the season, how do you separate BC, VT and Clemson? Clemson beat both (at home) and BC swept VT. Clemson also split with FSU but then again VT beat Duke. Ken Pomeroy has Clemson, 32, VT 37 and BC 62. The unbalanced schedule wreaks havoc.


Hence why a potential Clemson/BC game in the ACC tournament (on a neutral court) has unusually large implications.

JGibson said...

AG - are you fishing? You seem to have criss-crossed New Mexico's 1999 bid with UNLV's 2000 bid. New Mexico '99 was ranked by the AP, but had a very bad RPI, and only a win over Arizona as any quality win. They finished 2nd in their half of the WAC. UNLV '00 was the team that tied for the regular season title and then won the MWC league tournament when the MWC had no auto-bid in 2000. Their RPI was much better, but the bid was controversial and led to Dicky V's conniption when Virginia and Notre Dame were left out.

Both were controversial due to the committee makeup. In '99 New Mexico AD Davalos was on the committee. In '00, MWC commissioner Craig Thompson was chair of the committee.

Anonymous said...

How far away from an at large bid is Harvard? No one is really talking about them, and no one seems to have them in their last 4/8 out, but their profile is pretty solid:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Harvard.html

RPI - 36
Record - 22-5
Against the top 50 - 2-3
Against the top 100 - 3-4

Their only OOC losses are against teams who are either in or close to being in the tourney - George Mason, Michigan, and Uconn.

And they have wins over BC and Colorado. They have the one bad loss against Yale.

They split with the other good ivy (Princeton) and will likely play one more time to decide who gets the autobid. If Harvard loses that game, shouldn't they at least be in the conversation?

Anonymous said...

This is kind of a nitpick, but how on earth is Indiana State ahead of Morehead State on the s-curve? Morehead State has better numbers across the board and even won @Indiana State 2 weeks ago.

Tom said...

Harvard is probably not in the at-large conversation.

Their losses aren't bad, true. But their overall winning RPI average is hideous and their best win is bubble team BC. I'm not sure how you'd include them over teams that have 20 wins over teams averaging a 130 or lower RPI (Harvard only has 4 such wins).

Still, I hope they beat out Princeton as I think they have a better shot at upsetting in the R64.

Dustin said...

I agree with Notre Dame being higher than Duke right now for a #1, but if you were to make Duke the #1, what would their case be?

Andrew EC said...

B101 -- two areas where I think you're likely to get burned:

1. I think the Selection Committee is really going to punish BYU. I'm sort of thinking about GW in 2006 where they lost Pops, lost in the A-10 finals and fell all the way down to a #8 seed on Selection Sunday.

I know it's not a perfect analogy to BYU -- GW's OOC that year was truly pathetic, whereas BYU's is just bad -- but I could see the same principle at work this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see BYU drop as low as the 6 line.

2. I've beat this drum in a few posts, but "no 12-4 SEC team has ever been left out" carries about as much weight as "no 10-6 ACC team has ever been left out" carried last year; i.e., none. Even casual basketball fans know that the SEC West sucks, and Alabama just doesn't pass the sniff test (in addition to the statistical test).

The Tide may do you guys a favor by losing to Georgia in the SEC tournament -- heck, they barely beat the Bulldogs at *home*, let alone on a neutral court -- but even if they eke out another victory over a non-tournament team, I don't see them getting in, 12-4 SEC or no 12-4 SEC.

Anonymous said...

If BYU wins the MWC tourney I don't see how they are any worse than a two. If they lose before the finals I could see them dropping as low as a four.

Anonymous said...

Interesting (at least to me) observation... as you look across the land of bracketology, there is a wide disparity between how some bubble teams' at-large chances are being assessed.

Example... Lunardi does not have VCU in the First 8 Out discussion whereas Palm has VCU in a play-in game on the 12 line.

Dustin said...

Big games tonight!

VCU vs ODU: If VCU wins the CAA Championship thats going to mean 1 less bid for the at-large bubble teams.

Gonzaga vs St. Marys: Both are safe most likely, worse case scenario for either team is Gonzaga blowing up SMC, if they do SMC could fall to the last four in category and have to play one of the play-in games.

Wofford vs Charleston: This is for the Southern Championship, and Charleston is team with the tools to upset a first round team (I refuse to call it the second round, sounds weird.)

St. Peters vs Iona: St. Peters is the underdog in the MAAC Championship, but they already have a nice win over Alabama on a neutral court. Their zone defense can create problems sometimes, as evidenced by their blowout victory over #1 Fairfield.

Plus Summit and Sun Belt semis.

zlionsfan said...

I think it's early to say who's going to get the final #1 seed ... a lot will depend on the path those contenders take in their conference tournaments.

For example, Purdue could get back in the discussion with a BTT title, but if their last two wins are against Penn State and Michigan, that probably won't do it; if it's Wisconsin and Ohio State, that would mean a lot more.

There is also the part about timing. There is a point past which the committee will stop looking at results, and it's probably before 5:30 or so on Sunday (when the Big Ten title game will end).

mag900 said...

"For example, Purdue could get back in the discussion with a BTT title, but if their last two wins are against Penn State and Michigan, that probably won't do it; if it's Wisconsin and Ohio State, that would mean a lot more.

There is also the part about timing. There is a point past which the committee will stop looking at results, and it's probably before 5:30 or so on Sunday (when the Big Ten title game will end)."

purdue isn't getting a 1 seed. not with that horrific loss to iowa.

did you mean to write 5:30 on SATURDAY or sunday? the committee isn't doing jack at 5:30 on sunday. what do you bother to post when you are that out to lunch?

Bracketology 101 said...

Purdue has no chance of getting a 1 after losing at Iowa. They're closer to a 3 right now than they are to a 1.

Anonymous said...

I think it is high time we have an honest discussion about Oakland Us chances of an at-large should they lose tonight to a very decent South Dakota St team...

To me they are as deserving (if not more-so) than many of the other higher profile bubble teams...

Oakland has 9 losses with only 1 at home... 6 of the 9 losses were to teams that are currently on the bubble (including several tight games). They have losses to Purdue and Ohio St whom everyone on the bubble (save Richmond) lost to...

Thoughts? You may think I am crazy but I fully expect the SDSU game to be tight tonight.

Bracketology 101 said...

@ Andrew EC -

1. GW definitely didn't deserve an 8 seed in 2006, but keep in mind that Pops was their best player (Davies is clearly not BYU's best player), and that the Colonials' gaudy record that year was due in large part to the fact that the A-10 was so bad. GW's only "notable" OOC win that year was Maryland, and Terps ended up making the NIT.

The BYU situation this year is different. The Cougars had a legitimate claim to be a 1 seed until Davies got hurt. At worst they would have been a 2. Even without Davies, we can't see the commttee dropping them lower than a 4. That would be the worst case scenario, which would be a loss in the MWC semis.

2. There's no way to defend the SEC West, but keep in mind that Alabama also went 4-2 against the SEC East. One of those wins was at Tennessee, and the only two losses were at Vandy and at Florida. The biggest problem for 'Bama resume-wise is not what they did in conference, but what they didn't do out of conference. If their OOC SOS wasn't a complete joke, they'd be comfortably in right now.

Won't said...

Yeah, Bama has 11 wins over teams with 200+ rpi's. Even Butler only has 5 such wins.

Bracketology 101 said...

The Summit is the 21st-rated conference and Oakland is 1-7 against the Top 100. They have no chance at an at-large.

Anonymous said...

You say Alabama's OOC schedule was a joke but worse than that.... they lost several games OOC...

At least Oakland played huge names... Ohio St, Mich, Mich St, Tenn, Illinois, Purdue.... (all on the road I might add)

Frankly Alabama winning home conference games against dog meat (save Kentucky's worst effort of the year) and getting the same away win @ Tennessee as the Grizz...

Their resumes looks might similar to me and 10 pts higher RPI for Oakland...

Bama lost to St Peters, Iowa, Seton Hall and Providence... Only the Valpo loss is comparable on Oaklands schedules...

Just seems stupid that we go to 68 teams and it seems like less mid majors are getting a chance at an at large...

Bracketology 101 said...

Things may look bleak for mid-majors right now, but we still have a whole week to go. The Colonial may end up being a three-bid league, and C-USA, the Horizon, and the WAC might end up with two. Let's not cry for the little guy just yet.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure I understand why Michigan State is still in the bracket. Their profile is weak and their two best wins (Wisc and Wash) came before Korie Lucious was kicked off the team. Since that time Michigan State is 5-6. How come BYU and Georgetown are punished for dismissals/injuries, but not Michigan State?

Mike said...

Penn State will make the tournament.

Won't said...

"How come BYU and Georgetown are punished for dismissals/injuries, but not Michigan State?"

Last week, some clown at CBS asked the head of the selection committee if they'd take into consideration the games Tennessee had to play without Bruce Pearl on the bench, as if that wasn't supposed to be some type of penalty. Seriously, how do these guys keep their jobs? CBS has only had the tourney for 30 years. You'd think they'd know that was a dumb question.

Brian Reinthaler said...

zlions, I think Purdue tops out at the 2 line for the reason you mentioned even a BTT championship will come too late to pass Notre Dame and Duke.

The only crazy scenario where its even thinkable assumes a PU run (which must include wins over MSU and Wisc. to matter) combined with a Duke loses in the ACC quarterfinals and an ND loss in the BET quarters (and even then, Purdue's loss to Iowa should make it impossible because neither Duke nor ND have anything close to a comparable blight on their resumes (unless USF shocks Nova and Cincy and ND, and by that point, a neutral court loss to USF will better than a road loss to Iowa anyway). And the neutral court win over Wisc. will simply match ND's from the Old Spice tournament final.

p.s., speaking of USF, a little reported fact about the Big East doormat: on November 26, the Bulls took BYU at full strength to double overtime and lost by just 2 points on a shot as time expired. They also went to OT @UConn, and played Pitt and Georgetown very tough. The Big East is ridiculous this season.

Anonymous said...

Tonight's SoCon championship should be a fun game to watch. We all know College of Charleston has the ability to knock someone off, but Wofford is equally dangerous. Don't forget that last year they were a 13 seed and nearly upset Wisconsin. This year they returned 5 of their top 6 players from that team. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, they haven't been able to put it together. Still, if the Terriers get in they will easily be one of the most dangerous 15 seeds in the history of the NCAA tournament.

Scott M said...

One win will lock it up for Washington, right?

But what about this scenario: They lose to WSU, but Arizona and UCLA play for the conference title. Would the Huskies definitely be safe as the third Pac 10team?

give me the brandy said...

Mike, Penn St needs to beat Indiana and Wisconsin first. If they do that, they're almost certainly in. If not, they're out. They are stil paying for their brutal non-conference play, which gives MSU the edge over Penn St.

I really don't think Butler deserves a bid if they lose tonight. They only have 1 win over a tournament team and don't have any more wins over teams that can even be considered on the bubble. Combine that with their large number of bad losses and I don't see them in with a loss.

Anonymous said...

So is the Alabama Georgia matchup a playout game for the loser? I am assuming a win over Auburn does nothing in terms of helping Georgia in getting an at-large.

Apissedant said...

Why is it no matter how many times Duke loses they always end up at the bottom of the 1 line?

They have 4 losses in the past 9 weeks, and only 2 of them are to ranked teams.

They only have 2 wins against ranked opponents all season. How is a 2-2 vs. ranked teams and 2 losses to non-ranked teams worthy of a 1 seed?


Syracuse is 7-4 against ranked teams and has two losses to non-ranked teams.

BYU is an amazing 4-0 against ranked teams with 3 losses to unranked teams.

I just don't see Duke's resume as very impressive.

Brian Reinthaler said...

Apissedant, be careful with your facts if you're going to tear down other teams.

Now that Nova is no longer ranked, that is a 3rd loss to "unranked" team for Cuse, and a 22-point home loss to Seton Hall isn't even in the same zip code as Duke's road loss to VT.

Also, rankings are of little import. RPI, as silly as it is, matters more. And Cuse is 5-3 vs. T25 RPI teams (w/ 3 losses outside the T25). Very solid, but probably not enough to overcome a 2-loss difference with Duke.

If I was making a case for Syracuse vs. Duke, I'd point to the quality of true road wins the Orange have (vs. RPI #s 10, 22, 23 and 31), as compared to Duke (exactly zero quality road wins - best was @ #70 Miami(FL)).

Mike said...

B101, I'm a little sensitive, and it means nothing, but do you agree it's 100% ridiculous that NO ONE (e.g. ESPN, CNNSI) seems to consider FSU a lock with 21 wins, and an 11-5 ACC record that includes a win over Duke and a buzzer-beater loss to UNC without their best player?

The only caveat with FSU has been Singleton's injury. Isn't the fact the UNC loss was a "heartbreaker" enough to prove the Singleton injury wouldn't keep them from being tournament-worthy?

Anonymous said...

Goodbye Florida Atlantic.

Another 1 seed goes down!!!!

Dustin said...

I have FSU as a lock. I dont see any loss damaging enough to keep them completely out.

Anonymous said...

In a wild scenario where bc loses to wake would clemson beating wake be enough or would they have to win another game?

Anonymous said...

B101 why does USC now only have make it to the PAC 10 finals didn't you say earlier whoever lost the USC wazzou game would have to win the PAC 10 tourney?

Anonymous said...

SYRA as a 2 seed? really? The weakest non conf schedule of any 2/3/4/5 seed..have no great wins...

please explain this one

Mike said...

I agree with brandy. If PSU beats Indiana and Wisconsin they should be good.

Anonymous said...

why would tenn. be invited to the dance when they will get ncaa sanctions? why not give a deserving team like virginia tech a shot?

Anonymous said...

FSU is a lock after yesterday's win @NCST. It's going to be difficult for them to play their way out of the 8/9 game, though. Maybe a run to the finals of the ACCT with another win over Duke.

Anonymous said...

If Kentucky wins the SEC any chance they end up as the 3 seed in Chicago?

Anonymous said...

Syracuse has more and better wins than any team behind them. 7 RPI top 25 wins including a trio of great road wins.

Anonymous said...

My mistake above. Syracuse has 7 wins against the Sagarin top 25, not RPI.

Mike said...

Anon715: I agree with you. FSU's season is worthy of about a 9-seed, and it would take a trip to the ACC final (unlikely to beat Duke on a neutral court w/o Singleton) to change that enough to make a difference.

Anonymous said...

@ Chase (2:03 AM)

North Texas may win the Sun Belt and has an RPI of #137.

Anonymous said...

I rescind my Oakland comment regarding the possibility of them needing an at large... ( I still feel they are more worthy than Alabama) they are not going to need one... They look dangerous... Belmont and Oakland look worthy of being 11 seeds...

Dustin said...

VCU was down as much as 14 (or maybe 16) and has brought it back to 2 with 5 minutes left.

Anonymous said...

Great st peters beat iona...just what this tournament needs, another terrible team.

Dustin said...

St. Peter's probably has a better chance to upset someone than Iona because of their style of play. They beat Alabama on a neutral court earlier this year.

Anonymous said...

WOOOOHOOO...St Peters wins...now Alabama can claim a win out of conference over a tourney bound team... snicker snicker...

Dustin said...

And the bubble teams rejoice as VCU falls short.

Tom said...

'Bama lost to St. Peters. I guess that could help their OOC SOS.

VCU has zero chance at an at-large, so that helps out the major conference bubblers.

Apissedant said...

Brian,

I understand, and agree with much of your argument... except that everyone likes to use quality of opponents when it suits them.

I'll refer you to the extreme example of Belmont. Belmont has a better overall record than Duke, but will not make the tournament if they don't win their conference tournament.

Syracuse obviously played better teams, and has a better top 25 wins by RPI, Sagarin, or actual rankings. Duke is 2-2 top 25 based on RPI, 5-3 for Syracuse. 5-3 is still better than 2-2.


Granted... the Seton Hall loss is bad, and worse than any loss Duke has, but that doesn't excuse Duke's lack of top 25 wins.
And of course, Duke's best away win is against number 73. Syracuse has an away win against number 11.

Anonymous said...

IONA......GONE!

THE MADNESS IS UPON US.

mistersuits said...

Though I'm pretty sure they're both in regardless... which team is closer to the bubble with a loss tonight - Gonzaga or St Mary's?

Dustin said...

St Marys is closer. Theyre almost positively in, but if enough things go against them they might need to play in the play-in gamewith a loss tonight.

mag900 said...

"Duke's best away win is against number 73."

it might help to actually cite correct information. duke beat rpi #18 KSU and rpi #39 butler "away."

matt r said...

@Anon regarding Kentucky in Chicago, they would have to at least jump Purdue or Notre Dame, and even then they could likely slated for DC.

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing they meant true road games, not neutral court where Duke beat KSU and Butler.

Anonymous said...

Anyone.....

Give me BYU+SDST best 3 combined wins out of conference?

pretty sad?

Overrated? overseeded?

Absolutley

Anonymous said...

Last new mex was the GREAT MWC team...

they lost by 20 2nd round as a 3 seed..

MWC does horrible every year..

mag900 said...

"I'm guessing they meant true road games, not neutral court where Duke beat KSU and Butler."

the NCAAT is played on neutral courts.

Anonymous said...

BYU and San Diego St tourney teams they beat OOC... Arizona (Pac 10 champs), St Marys, UTEP, Gonzaga, Vermont (likely), Utah St, Long Beach St (likely)

Then take into account 4 combined wins over UNLV and 2 combined win over New Mexico...both of them who could easily be in the field considering they have scalps over Wisconsin, Colorado, Va Tech and Kansas St...

So before you shoot your mouth off about how good they MWC top 4 are... you might want to look at the numbers... the conference top half is every bit as good as the Pac 10....

AG said...

There's something I didn't think I'd hear this year: someone trying to justify a conference's greatness by comparing it to the Pac-10.

I'm not at all convinced VCU is dead and buried yet, I think they've just moved to the bubble is all. If anything VCU has a better claim to an at-large than Gonzaga.

Anonymous said...

And yet another one seed goes down as charleston and goudelock fall. We are stuck with worfford. This is going to be the year of CHALK!

Anonymous said...

Talk about a horrible set of midmajors this year in the tourny

Dustin said...

@anon 10:58

UTEP isnt a tourney team yet (probably wont get an at-large and need to win the tournament) and Vermont was eliminated from the America East yesterday.

Howard Salwasser said...

After what you guys have seen tonight, does St. Mary's deserve to be an NCAA tournament team? To me, they meet the eye test, and deserve to stay in the field(they will move down a seed line, though).

Brian Reinthaler said...

mag, now you're just prodding people for the heck of it. You knew exactly what Apissedant meant and rather than make the point that NCAA games are played on neutral court (which even then wasn't apt), you disingenuously stated that KSU and Butler were "away" games for Duke. Then, when called out for it, you tried to change the subject.

Give it a rest.

Anonymous said...

Mag... nice try. Those were neutral. A completely different animal than away. It might hrlp to learn correct terminology before posting.

Anonymous said...

HA so get this either North Texas or Arkansas Little Rock is going to be in the tournament.. they both have losing records in conference and Arkansas LR has a losing record overall... GOODBYE CINDERELLAS IN 2011

Chase said...

The 1's - Ohio State, Pitt, Kansas, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, Texas, North Carolina, Syracuse
The 3's - Purdue, BYU, Florida, San Diego State
The 4's - Wisconsin, Louisville, Georgetown, Kentucky
The 5's - St Johns, Vanderbilt, UConn, WVU
The 6's - Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State, Cincinnati
The 7's - Temple, UCLA, UNLV, Old Dominion
The 8's - Texas A&M, Arizona, Old Dominion, Illinois
The 9's - Utah State, George Mason, Florida State, Tennessee
The 10's - Richmond, Butler, Georgia Gonzaga
The 11's - Marquette, Washington, Boston College, St Mary's
The 12's - Michigan, Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama, UAB
The 13's - Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Wofford
The 14's - Bucknell, Indiana State, Long Beach State, Morehead State
The 15's - St Peters, Kent State, Boston U, Long Island
The 16's - North Texas, Northern Colorado, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Last 4 in: Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama
Last 4 out: Colorado State, Virginia Tech, Penn State, VCU
Next 6 out: Missouri State, UTEP, USC, Nebraska, Washington State, New Mexico
On Life Support: Baylor, Minnesota, Memphis, Duquesne, Oklahoma State
Season Ended: Cleveland State, Wichita State, College of Charleston

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 11:41

Just because a mid major 1 seed does not win its tourney does not mean it will lose 1st round. Take a look at George Mason when they had their cindarella run. They didn't even win the conference tourney (lost to Hofstra) and made the final four.

wileydan said...

Why is it that good wins earlier in the season are less important if the team starts failing down the stretch. But bad losses early in the season are a HUGE deal? Like Tennessee beat Villanova early in the year but will most likely lose 14 games this year. The same team that last to ALabama and USC. Oh and Villanova is also plummeting too.

The question is this:
Is it better to have a few quality wins at the beginning of the year and then struggling to 8-8 in conference, or scheduling a soft OOC and struggling at the beginning of the year, but then going 12-4 in conference?

If the committee looks so poorly upon a team that loses a player right before the tournament, can't they judge a few losses from the beginning of the season as growing pains when the team comes together in the end and finishes strong? Just some thought.

Anonymous said...

@Chase

Not sure VCU belongs in the First Four out list. They have 11 losses and finished 4th in the CAA (granted they did get to the tourney finals). They do have good wins over ODU, Mason, and UCLA, but losses to South FL, GA St. & Northeastern, coupled with losses to fellow bubble teams Richmond, UAB (if they need it), and Tennessee (if they lose 1st in SEC tourney) hurts them badly.

Anonymous said...

I seriously don't get this 'year of the chalk' crap because some small conference 1 seeds lost. There have never been more than 2 14-16 seed upsets in one year, and that's where nearly all these projected champs were going to end up anyways. Besides, which team pulled off the big first round upset last year? Ohio, a team that was the 9 seed in the MAC tournament.

wileydan said...

@Chase

Old Dominion is a 7 and an 8 on your bracket.

Chase said...

I've seen a good deal of VCU and Missouri State games - I think VCU is better. Pass the eye test. Do I think they get in? No. Would I be shocked on Sunday if they do? No.

I think St Mary's is in trouble. Should be last 4 in.

Anonymous said...

St. Mary's is 3-6 vs. the RPI top 100. They are in more trouble than the pundits lead on.

Anonymous said...

St. Marys is in. VCU is not. Dont be silly now

Dustin said...

Here's my new 'bracket'

Not a lot of movement, St. Mary's moved down to the 11-line. I re-evaluated all of the 13 seeds and lower because of the upsets.

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Purdue, Texas, North Carolina
3's: BYU, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Connecticut, Cincinnati
5's: Georgetown, St John's, Kansas State, Kentucky
6's: UNLV, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Villanova, Old Dominion, UCLA, Utah State
9's: Illinois, Marquette, Florida State, George Mason
10's: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Clemson
11's: Richmond, Georgia, St. Mary’s, Michigan State
12's: (Washington vs Colorado), (Alabama vs Boston College), Butler, UAB
13's: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Morehead State
14's: Bucknell, Long Island, Indiana St, Kent St
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, North Texas, (UNC-Asheville vs McNeese St), (Texas Southern vs Bethune-Cookman)

LAST FOUR IN: Washington, Colorado, Alabama, Boston College
FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, Colorado State, (Butler)
NEXT FOUR OUT: Baylor, (UAB), Nebraska, New Mexico

UAB and Butler are in parenthesis because they are projected into the tournament with auto-bids, so they do not need the at-large berths.

Anonymous said...

Keeping UNLV at an 8 seed is ridiculous. They are a 6-7 for sure. If and when they win the MWC tourney, they'll be a 5.

Anonymous said...

Come on dustin this has gotten border line ridiculous what do you have against Penn state how does Baylor have a better shot at an at large Penn state has 1 sub 100 loss and USC who is in your first four out has 6! Can you please explain that.

Dustin said...

Re: UNLV

I have them as a six. They can most certainly move to a 5 depending on the MWC.

Re: Penn St

Why of course I can....it's called better wins. I have Baylor up there more because I think they could go on a run and make it, rather than what they've done. Penn State needs a lot more wins in the BTT to get into the tournament, while also having a bunch of dominoes fall their way in other tournaments.

AG said...

Can we dispense with the ridiculous notion that UAB will win its conference tournament? Since when has a Mike Davis coached team *ever* done what it was supposed to? Can you believe this guy blew the chance of a lifetime to land Demarcus Cousins but refused to let him out of his letter of intent if he decided to take another job? Like anyone would offer Mike Davis another job! He only got the one he has because of his ties to the state.

AG said...

And Dustin, with all due respect, I think its time we stopped waiting for Baylor to start playing like a team full of NBA players, because they aren't a team, period. Perry Jones is projected to go ahead of Jared Sullinger in the draft, but nobody ever talks about him the way they talk about Sullinger. You know why? Because BallHoggious Dunn refuses to pass the rock! What's worse is that Scott Drew, the slimy recruiter he is, enables Dunn and now its rubbing off on AJ Walton, too. I tell you it pains me to see such great talent wasted on taking a school with maybe 1000 fans to the NIT. And it would bother me even if they didn't steal Ekpe Udoh from Michigan by offering his AAU coach a job after he convinced him to transfer.

Dustin said...

@ AG

Im not saying Baylor turning it around is a sure thing, or even probable, but if any team is going to make a 'surprise' run, they've got as good or better chance than anyone.

Elite talent usually takes over in tournaments that take place over several days, if Baylor wins a game or two they'll be hard to put down.

Would you be shocked if they made a run to the finals of the Big 12 with that roster? I know I wouldn't.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they lost their first game, either.

Dustin said...

@ AG

Also, in regards to UAB, I think them winning the tournament is a coin flip situation. Since they're the 1 seed I have them in for now.

Anonymous said...

@ 11:41 PM

North Texas went 8-8 in the Sun Belt and Arkansas-Little Rock is 18-16.

mag900 said...

"mag, now you're just prodding people for the heck of it. You knew exactly what Apissedant meant and rather than make the point that NCAA games are played on neutral court (which even then wasn't apt), you disingenuously stated that KSU and Butler were "away" games for Duke. Then, when called out for it, you tried to change the subject."

When someone makes a stupid point and can't even use the correct terms, he has to expect to to get ripped. He was trying to complain that Duke doesn't have a great true road game. That's fine but not entirely that important. However, if he doesn't know the difference between a "road" game and a "neutral" game, then whatever he has to write has to be seriously discounted.

Regarding your other point, people on this board place way too much emphasis on road versus neutral. NCAAT games only are played at neutral sites so the enormous advantages a true home team gets (eg, being extremely familiar with the rims and background, no travel and a packed gym rooting for you (although i think that is very over-rated)) are eliminated. It's harder to win a true road game versus a neutral game but that's not the skill needed to win in the NCAAT.

mag900 said...

What is disingenuous (or just plain stupid) is to cite a team's lack of road wins and then to completely omit its strong neutral wins. It's just like the people who whine on here about how team X (eg, Syracuse) did nothing OOC, and therefore doesn't deserve Y, but then completely omit the fact that team X piled up a bunch of great wins IC (which completely negates Y).

Anonymous said...

Dustin can you please explain to me how USC has a better resume than Penn state I mean they lost 3 of 4 to the Oregon schools thanks

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