Here's what we learned from Thursday's games:
1. UAB looks like they will be joining Missouri State in the NIT. The regular season champs from Conference USA were unceremoniously dumped by East Carolina in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney on Thursday, and as a result, they fell to the First Four Out list in today's bracket. For the last week, we thought an outright C-USA title might be enough for the Blazers, but we also figured they would make at least the semis of the conference tourney. Losing their first game is a crushing blow, and one that they probably won't recover from. They needed at least one win to help offset a 2-4 record against Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and Southern Miss combined.
2. UAB's loss is Virginia Tech's gain. The Hokies have been our First Team out since Monday, but they now slide into the field to take the Blazers' vacated spot. Virginia Tech needs to beat Florida State today to stay in the field on Saturday.
3. Colorado officially owns Kansas State, and the Buffs are probably going dancing as a result. They're still not a lock by any means, but it's probably going to be tough for the selection committee to ignore a third win over the Wildcats, on top of wins over Texas and Missouri. (If only they could have beaten someone out of conference...) Kansas State, meanwhile, falls from the end of the 5 line to the top of the 7 line.
4. The Pac-10 is a mess, and it's probably going to get messier. UCLA got blown out by Oregon to fall from a 7 seed to an 8, Washington needed a second-half comeback to edge Washington State, and USC beat Cal to keep their steadliy improving at-large chances going. A strong case could be made that the Trojans deserve a bid if they beat Arizona today. If they do win, and then beat Washington in the final, will the Pac-10 get four bids? Is Washington in danger if they lose in the final to USC? What happens if the Huskies lose to the Ducks in the semis and USC wins the tourney? Could Washington get squeezed?
5. Michigan State (vs. Iowa), Boston College (vs. Wake Forest), Georgia (vs. Auburn), and Tennessee (vs. Arkansas) are safe - for now - after avoiding what could have been bubble-bursting first-round conference tournament losses. Michigan State moved from the Last Four In list to the bottom of the 11 line.
6. Penn State is also still alive after their win over Indiana. The Nittany Lions need at least a win over Wisconsin today to get in. That win might be enough, it might not, depending on what else happens over the next 48 hours.
7. Kemba Walker vs. Gary McGhee is not a fair fight. What a step-back move. Yikes.
8. Pitt's still a 1 seed. The Panthers won the regular season title in the best league in the country and have nine Top 50 wins. Could Duke really get a 1 seed over Pitt despite finishing second in the ACC and potentially needing to win just one tough game to get to the ACC tourney final?
9. Notre Dame looked an awful lot like a 1 seed and Syracuse looked a lot like a 2 seed. Cincinnati and Marquette looked like teams that knew their jobs in New York were already done.
10. Kansas is good enough to sleepwalk their way through at least one round of the Big XII tournament. Missouri looks destined for an 8/9 game after their quarterfinal loss to Texas A&M. The Aggies, meanwhile, could be a 5 if they beat Texas today.
11. Colorado State's bubble is burst, but New Mexico's is still very much intact. The Lobos beat the Rams 67-61 in the MWC quarters last night, setting up a third meeting with BYU today. New Mexico swept the season series from BYU, and if they can pick up a third win, they would be a very interesting at-large candidate. They'll have to hope three wins over the Cougars cancel out an ugly 8-8 conference record.
12. Kent State (MAC), Long Beach State (Big Sky), and McNeese State (Southland) are still the favorites to win their conference tournaments.
Friday Preview
We'll keep it simple. Here's what every bubble team has to do today:
Colorado - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.
New Mexico - Beat BYU (again) and they get serious consideration. They have no chance with a loss.
Penn State - Win and they likely end up on the Last Four In line. They have no chance with a loss.
USC - Win and they will either be the last team in or out. No chance with a loss.
Georgia - Same as Colorado. Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.
Alabama - Win and they are fairly safe. Lose and it's tough to imagine scenarios where they don't get squeezed.
Michigan State - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe.
Michigan - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but it also depends on what Penn State and Michigan State do.
Boston College - Win and they're in, lose and they're out.
Clemson - Win and they likely will be one of the last teams in, lose and they are done.
Richmond - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should be safe, but it will be a long two days.
Virginia Tech - Win and they are in, lose and they are likely out.
St. Mary's - Nothing really to gain from the Weber State game. They are expected to win big and need to do so.
Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
St. Mary's, Boston College, Alabama, Virginia Tech
First Four Out
UAB, USC, Clemson, Penn State
Next Four Out
Missouri State, VCU, New Mexico, Memphis
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)
America East - Boston University
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason
Conference USA - UTEP
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Princeton
MAAC - St. Peter's
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman
MVC - Indiana State
MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Morehead State
Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
Southern - Wofford
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock
SWAC - Texas Southern
WAC - Utah State
WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue
The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas
The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Connecticut
The 5s
St. John's, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia
The 6s
Texas A&M, Temple, Georgetown, Cincinnati
The 7s
Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, UNLV
The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee
The 9s
Missouri, Illinois, Florida State, Marquette
The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington
The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan State
The 12s
Colorado, St. Mary's vs. Boston College (FF), Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (FF), UTEP
The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State
The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford
The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado
The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.
371 comments:
1 – 200 of 371 Newer› Newest»"Michigan - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe but it also depends on what Penn State and Michigan State do."
There. From the horse's mouth. Plain and simple. Maybe this will prevent 75% of the comments from being a back and forth between the Michigan haters and homers.
Disclaimer: It probably won't but I tried.
Lunardi said MSU is out of the field with a loss to Purdue today.
I really agree PSU should be in with a win over Wisconsin today.
(full disclosure: I'm an Ann Arbor native and Purdue grad, so I'm obviously rooting for Purdue today.)
Michigan State is an interesting case ... really tough schedule but few solid wins from it. (Home vs. Wisconsin. They're 1-8 vs. the RPI top-25, 1-9 with a third loss to Purdue.)
Their split with Penn State just became a top-50 split, though, and that may not change even if PSU loses to Wisconsin. Also, there's a chance that a Michigan win over Illinois could move those losses to top-50.
So they're not really that different than the other bubble teams, right? One difference may be the extent of their recent losses: 20 points at Iowa (Iowa???), 26 at Wisconsin, 20 at home to Purdue. If Purdue blows them out in Conseco, that might not be so good, particularly if other bubble teams post wins today.
I think that this year, you can probably put 5-6 teams in a hat and draw 2-3 of them, and MSU will be one of them barring an upset today.
You guys continue to be way too low on Memphis. A win over East Carolina today and a loss to anyone decent in the CUSA Final would give them an RPI around 30, a quality win @ Gonzaga, and a boatload of solid wins. I can't imagine how they wouldn't be atleast a 50/50 shot at that point.
Anonymous: the Michigan stuff ends today either way. They hold their fate. Illinois is in either way, UM wins they are too. I do disagree with B101 though, if they lose to Illinois, I think they are a 1 seed NIT team. Which again, for all the expectations coming in is an absolute great season for them.
This will probably be the last day for bubble teams to make an impact, because the committee doesn't really debate whose in and out after Friday. Starting tomorrow they focus more on seeding.
Will Utah State get an at large if they don't win the WAC? As long as MSU does not get absolutely destroyed by Purdue they should be fine.
B101 if Michigan loses today you they are still safe depending upon what happens with MSU and PSU. If Michigan loses do they drop down to the First Four game on Tuesday or are they still okay to play on Thursday or Friday and not have to hurdle a game Tuesday?
@Chris in NC
Many of the other bubble teams will lose today, several of which are playing each other. So Michigan will still be in good shape with a loss barring an unlikely set of events.
If Duke wins today and Notre Dame loses, would Duke be back on the 1 seed line?
If U of M, with 0 wins over at large teams solidly in the field, gets in, then Colorado MUST get in with 5.
@GoBlue - It depends on what the current First Four teams do.
Duke would be a 1 temporarily, but they still need to win the ACC tourney to lock down that spot.
I've given up predicting here - to me. The big question: what gets the most weight with the committee? SOS? Top 50 wins? Bad losses?
I say this because at the end of the day there will be, what - maybe 12 teams looking for 6 spots?
If you were on the committee, what would be the most important thing that you consider?
"Duke would be a 1 temporarily, but they still need to win the ACC tourney to lock down that spot."
you mean get to the ACC finals. the committee has repeatedly said that it is lazy and won't account for the results of sunday conference finals unless there are bid stealers player. duke getting to the finals and losing is the same thing as winning the finals. either way, it is looking like duke and ND will be paired up as 1/2s, which is a great match-up for duke if it can get to the regional finals.
UConn has played themselves into a higher seed, but appear to have drawn the dreaded Tucson sub-regional for their efforts. Someone in that 3-4 seed range from the big East is going to get shipped out there; as of today, it looks like the Huskies.
With 40 mins to go before the first games of the day tip off, here's what I think the cut line looks like:
Villanova
Georgia
Colorado
Michigan
//First Four//
Boston College-Clemson Winner
Michigan State
Virginia Tech
UTEP-Memphis loser if both in final
//Cut Line//
USC
New Mexico
Utah State if they need it
Boston College-Clemson loser
//Next Four Out//
Alabama
Missouri State
VCU
Penn State
Beyond that, I don't see a team backing into a bid ahead of a team that's still alive.
Penn state already has the number 7 SOS and 50rpi if they win they're in
What do you figure FSU has to do get out of that 8/9 game? With the way Mizzou and UCLA imploded in their respective tourneys, will a win against VT do it? Or do they have to beat Duke (presumably) in the ACCT semis?
My bubble predictions today:
Va Tech, Michigan, Richmond win
PSU, MSU, Colorado, USC, UNM lose
Clemson beats BC
Georgia beats Bama
UTEP and Memphis make CUSA finals
Last 4 byes:
Michigan, Georgia, Va Tech, Colorado
Last 4 in:
MSU, St Mary's, Clemson, UAB
First 4 out:
Bama, Memphis, VCU, BC
Washington still hasnt locked up a spot in the tourney? I thought the consensus seemed to be that a win yesterday made it a done deal.
Well if Washington loses to Oregon...
Dayton Flyers are playing INSPIRED ball. Trying to get back in the discussion.
I know it's also based on what the rest of the field does, but if Michigan gets the W today, is it more likely that they move up to the 10-line or hold their spot on the 11-line?
Is Penn State #50 or #51? According to warrennolan.com, which is the primary site I use for RPI, they are #51. I assume #50 comes from RealTime RPI? If poeple look at the hard cutoffs, that could make a real difference to a team like Michigan.
A loss here and Xavier can say hello to a 6-seed. Also, don't look now, but it's possible the winner of the Illinois/Michigan game might be playing Wildcats instead of Buckeyes in the next round!
Yeah - Oregon's win over UCLA is bad for Washington. A win over WSU and a loss to UCLA would have left them in. A loss to Oregon would be a bad one right now, although I think Washington would still make it.
Uh oh the walk ons are in for the Tar Heels.
Dayton has to win the tournament to get in. Bubble teams should be rooting hard for Xavier to come back, if they lose there will definitely be a potential bid-stealer in the A10 finals.
I believe Colorado is rightfully one game behind where everyone thinks they are. If Colorado wins today, I feel like everyone has them as a lock. I think winning today should really put them into the field, rather than making them a lock. Thus I still don't think they are in.
Despite 6 wins against the RPI Top 50, they are only 12-12 against the RPI Top 200, along with an out of conference RPI SOS of 318! They only have 3 true road wins the entire season as well. I feel as if they needed to steal another one of those out of conference games against a bubble foe.
That said, how can Alabama even be close to the bubble? I completely understand being 12-4 in the conference and playing in a BCS conference, but if anyone has ever, and I mean ever played an easier conference schedule in a BCS conference schedule, I'd love to see it. They have 11 wins against sub 200 RPI teams, meaning they are only 9-10 against the Top 200. They only have 1 road win agaisnt at Top 100 team, and that was a reeling Tennessee bunch. They are 4-10 on road and neutral courts. Their RPI isn't an aboration in my opinion (85), but rather a true assessment of where they should be. This team needs to get to the finals in my opinion to have a good shot.
Does Harvard have any shot at all at an at-large bid if they lose to Princeton tomorrow? Their RPI likely will be in the high 30's (strong). Go to Warrennolan.com, and take a quick glance on the Nitty Gritty Report and compare Harvard and St. Mary's. It astonishing how similar their overall resumes look.
Dayton and Xavier don't like each other, regardless of whether the game is in Ohio or Atlantic City.
B101, is there a good reason why Pitt isn't behind ND already on the S-Curve? Very, very similar profiles, and ND holds the head to head AT Pitt. Pitt was 15-3 in conf, ND 14-4 and after yesterday we're all tied up. ND lost to Kentucky, Pitt to Tennessee in the non-conf.
@Mag - You think ND is a good matchup for Duke? I was thinkin Duke would be a great matchup for ND in the regional final. I don't think they'll be matched up against each other--If ND is the last 1 seed they'll be shipped out West and Duke would stay east, or vice versa, I think.
Washington is a lock.
Here's my scenarios for USC.
1. Lose and they're out.
2. Win coupled with a Washington win and they're looking pretty good even if they lose the final.
3. Win coupled with an Oregon win and they would have to win the final to get in.
The Pac 10 is getting 3 bids for sure with a max of 4, so if Oregon steals a bid USC is out.
How high of a seed do you think UNLV would get if they win the MWC tournament?
nice
ND probably has to win the Big East tournament to pass Pitt on the S-curve.
If UNC loses, how much would that hurt Duke's chances at a 1-seed? I thought their only shot coming in was beating UNC in the ACC finals.
@Brandy - Wrong. If ND win's tonight, they pass Pitt easily, regardless of the champ game outcome. Go look at the resume's and find a way to tell me different.
"This will probably be the last day for bubble teams to make an impact, because the committee doesn't really debate whose in and out after Friday. Starting tomorrow they focus more on seeding."
AG, this is not true. They start to make calls on at large teams tonight, but they don't get into the bubble teams until late Saturday, sometimes even Sunday morning.
If there are bubble teams or bid stealers still playing Sunday afternoon, by about 2 or 3PM the committee will have more than 1 bracket ready as needed, but will no longer be debating the merits of given teams. That process, from what I've read in the past, is usually done by breakfast on Sunday.
If syracuse and uconn play 6 OTs tonight, what time will notre dame louisville start?!
North Carolina showing their inexperience.
Washington is a lock
How does UNC only have 25pts 4 min into the 2nd? Are they playing that bad? This would have to please Duke if UNC were to lose.
It'd be close if ND loses in the finals, and could go either way. Both would be one seeds over Duke. Rightly or wrongly, I have a feeling the committee would give the regular season champ the edge if ND does not win the tourney.
Also, Pitt lost their 4 Big East games by a combined 11 points, whereas ND's 4 losses were all by double digits. I think that should matter some when the resumes are so even.
"@Mag - You think ND is a good matchup for Duke? I was thinkin Duke would be a great matchup for ND in the regional final. I don't think they'll be matched up against each other--If ND is the last 1 seed they'll be shipped out West and Duke would stay east, or vice versa, I think."
yes, duke is fatally flawed without KI but, one thing they still do probably better than most (if not all) other teams is defend the 3. ND is an unathletic (relatively) 3-pointing shooting team that won't be able to drain 3s against duke. brey also has proven over and over again that he is not a good tournament coach.
i think it's pretty much a fait accompli (especially if unc doesn't come back today) that duke and nd will be paired up. however, i think it's unlikely that both would survive to the regional finals and wouldn't be surprised if both are gone by then.
"@Brandy - Wrong. If ND win's tonight, they pass Pitt easily, regardless of the champ game outcome. Go look at the resume's and find a way to tell me different."
easily? that is completely wrong. currently, pitt is ahead of nd on kenpom (6 to 8) but nd is ahead of pitt in rpi (6 to 9). all of the metrics are very similar (eg, wins against rpi top 25 and top 50, no bad losses and a good OOC win) but nd gets the edge because nd beat pitt in their only match-up. the bottom line is that it is extremely close.
mag900, you clearly have not watched much of ND this season. Heck, if you had even seen them play last night you'd know that ND has not been anywhere near as reliant on the 3 as in the past. In the 2nd half last night, ND beat Cincy 49-21, all while making just one 3-pointer.
ND is a lock for a #1 if they win tonight. Duke's resume, even with another win over UNC in the ACC final (which doesn't look like it will be possible with Miami's performance against the Heels today), cannot compare to ND's.
North Carolina cuts it to 4.
OT for Ohio State-Northwestern.
If the Buckeyes do end up on the losing end of things, will they lose the overall #1 seed? Also, anyone else think that 3 that gave the Wildcats the lead came after the shot clock hit zero?
Looked like it was on his fingertips when the clock hit 0.
I think Kansas is the only other one with a shot at the #1 overall seed and they need to win the Big 12 Tournament.
"mag900, you clearly have not watched much of ND this season. Heck, if you had even seen them play last night you'd know that ND has not been anywhere near as reliant on the 3 as in the past. In the 2nd half last night, ND beat Cincy 49-21, all while making just one 3-pointer."
they weren't shooting 3s in the 2nd half because they were blowing out cincy. they still hucked up 19 (only 3 less than cincy). in their 4 games prior to cincy, they were 10-24 against uconn, 20-32 against villanova, 8-21 against shu and 9-22 against providence. these were all wins so their attempts weren't skewed by being down and trying to close a deficit.
you may have been watching nd play but you clearly weren't paying attention to what was going on. they are a 3-pointing shooting team.
ND relies pretty heavily on the 3, last night notwithstanding. They're 2nd in the Big East in 3PA/FGA and pts% from 3. Duke is the top team in the ACC in 3 pt defense. Doesn't look like a great match-up for ND, should it happen.
ND is the Big East doppleganger of Wisconsin. Slow pace, extremely efficient on offense, suspect defensively.
It's time to contract the Miami basketball program. PATHETIC.
North Carolina survives in a thriller.
Chase,
Do you want Xavier and Northwestern to kill their hoops teams, too? Who are you, Bud Selig?
Dayton 68 Xavier 67 - Final. 13th #1 seed to lose in a conference tournament this year.
1. OSU is still 1 seed, and still one of the top two 1 seeds, even with a loss.
2. While KenPom is a great indicator of team strength, it's not a great indicator of resume strength. It's based on MOV, which the committee doesn't give a damn about. On top of that, ND has given up a TON of points in games already under control:
ND allowed Gonzaga to score 19 points in the last 3:30
ND allowed USF to score 17 points in the last 3:40
ND allowed Indiana State to score 14 points in the last 3:11
ND allowed UConn (game 1) to score 15 points in the last 3:51
ND allowed UC (first time) to score 14 points in the last 2:32
ND allowed Providence to score 21 points in the last 3:32
Every one of those games was at least mostly under control before the late runs. THAT's your reason ND is underrated by KenPom, and the reason KenPom isn't used by the committee. Of course it's close or there would be other teams between them, but comparing the two head to head, ND would have a better BE record with a win tonight, PLUS the head to head @Pitt, PLUS the conference final appearance. It's as clear cut as you can get for splicing between teams this close.
Dayton is that much closer to bursting a bubble!
Now that Xavier's out and Temple and Richmond face each other (potentially) in the tournament semi-final, the bid-thief radar is picking up Dayton and Duquesne, since one of them will in all likelihood make the finals.
Wow, what a wild start to the day. This is almost better than the actual tournament!
B101,
Does Xavier drop to a 6 with Texas A&M or Temple replacing them on the 5 line depending on what happens in those tourneys. Sound reasonable?
I think Xavier falls to the 7 line with their profile
BC hasn't gotten the memo yet, this is a big game.
So, is Georgia a LOCK with this win over Alabama? Is Alabama absolutely OUT?
My God Boston College is so sloppy today. Do they know they are in a play-out game?
Boston College got soft playing Wake Forest 2 times in a week.
uh oh... is Georgia about to fold like a cheap suit?
Georgia and Alabama is a lot closer a finish than I thought/hoped it would be.
Tied 52-52 AHHHHHHHH!!!
*53-53 my bad
Mark Fox is a terrible coach
Just like I thought, Michigan is *REALLY* struggling against that ridiculous Illinois size. Tisdale is getting anything he wants down low, Cole can't miss from 3, and Davis' length lets him get to every loose ball.
Michigan's gotta out-shoot Illinois if they're going to have any chance.
Lol Mark Fox.
Michigan can't match up with Illinois' height...this is getting ridiculous
Michigan just doesn't have the athleticism to get Tisdale in foul trouble like MSU, Purdue, and Ohio State can.
This is pretty straightforward:
Georgia Wins: Georgia IN, Alabama OUT
Alabama Wins: Alabama IN, Georgia IN
Welcome back to the bubble, Michigan Wolverines. You'll be sweating it out Sunday, but you will be in when it is all said & done. take it from an expert.
Michigan can't match up to any decent team. Is this a suprise?
Georgia is not automatically in with a win. There wins are basically Col, Kentucky, and Tenn. Yes they have no bad losses, but very few good wins.
Once again, I remind you all of last year's Florida/Mississippi State game in the SEC Tournament, where everybody thought it was a bubble elimination game, but Mississippi State won and went to the final but in the end Mississippi State wasn't even last 4 out but Florida was a 10 seed.
If Michigan comes back to win this game (remember they were down 10 @ Illinois at halftime this season and came back to lose by 2), this should be graded as a true road win. As the number of Michigan haters on this thread indicates, Michigan is not a very popular school. Last year even neutral fans at the Big Ten Tournament rooted for Ohio State to beat Michigan even though Ohio State losing would make their road to the final easier.
Michigan's playing their win in.......to the NIT
Where all the Michigan yappers at??
Its official: Alabama and Georgia are both in the tournament. Kickoff one of those ACC/B10 Bubble teams and make room!
Welp, hoping for the play-in game now. Illinois taking it to us.
Georgia is still safely in and Alabama is still out by a lot. I'm telling you there is precedent for this!
Georgia is not in. That was a truly awful loss and the committee should take notice.
Georgia will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. I predict they will be the last team to make it in (better start praying for no bid stealers Georgia). They better be glad they beat UAB earlier in the season, because I think UAB is the first team out of the NCAAs
Both the SEC Bubblers are in with this result.
I think Alabama is in, but even if they are still out, I think "by a lot" is a little extreme.
Alabama looked a little like North Carolina with that comeback! Or did Georgia just look like Miami (FL)?
Last time I looked Illinois was a pretty damn good team. In the tournament already. It wouldn't be a bad loss.
What a collapse by Georgia. They're going to be sweating pretty hard on selection sunday.
I'm not convinced Bama is safely in either, their only decent wins are Kentucky at home (who everybody beat), Tennessee away, and UGA twice. And they have a huge pile of bad losses. I think they're about even with UGA (remember that H2H is not the end all) and still behind Michigan even if they lose to Illinois.
Its a shame that Alabama is pretty much a lock to get in now. Georgia has to be one of the more pathetic offensive teams I have watched play this year, and I hope this law just bans them from the NCAA tourney
"If Michigan comes back to win this game (remember they were down 10 @ Illinois at halftime this season and came back to lose by 2), this should be graded as a true road win."
are you high? a conference tournament game in an arena that isn't the home court of your opponent that has an enormous % of fans not caring about the game is NOT even remotely close to a road game. regardless, michigan should have a home nit game next week.
loss**, not law (although it should be one...)
This was Michigan's play-in game. They'll be in the NIT as a 3 seed (maybe a 2, depending on how other tournaments shake out), and that's much better than anyone expected them to be when the season began.
No height, very little athleticism, weak outside shooting, no depth, little experience. Making the NIT might've been above Michigan's ceiling, but they tied for 4th in the Big Ten and lost some close games against teams that will be high seeds in the NCAA field.
For next season, Beilein needs to look to Europe, Africa or South America for some big men who can shoot and rebound.
Arguing over the last four teams into this field is like fighting over the scraps at the Golden Corral. Pure garbage.
Go Mason! Go Gators!
"Anonymous Mike said...
I think Alabama is in, but even if they are still out, I think "by a lot" is a little extreme."
Let me clarify, by "out by a lot" I mean, "must win conference tournament" just like Mississippi State last year.
I figured coming into this game Michigan's only chance was if Demetri McCamey had checked out on the season, and so far that's not the case. Illinois is arguably the 2nd most talented team in the Big Ten. Other than Ohio State, who else has McDonalds All-Americans coming off the bench!?
A 3 seed in the NIT? Youze on crack son.
What's more, there's a legit chance Kentucky loses to Ole Miss again, leaving Alabama a clear road to the final (and probably another 30 point beat down by Florida).
Alabama is likely in (though they would be advised not to get hammered by UK. Georgia was not considered a lock before losing to Alabama for the second time so how can they be now after blowing a 14 point lead on basically their home court
LOL Michigan
Michigan is still *probably* in a play-in game if they don't come back, depending on what else happens. If they were ahead of UGA on the S-curve before, no way should they fall below them now (a loss to Illinois is not as bad as a loss to Bama).
Alabama is definitely in. Now 13-4 in conference this year. They will either play Kentucky where a loss can't hurt that much, or play Mississippi and will win to get to the finals. How can a team that wins the conference regular season and then makes the conference tourney final not be in?
I still don't like everyone down on Alabama. They have played very well the past 2 months. The last 2 months mean more than the first 2 months of the season. These last 2 months will be the team you see play in the NCAA, not the latter.
BC and Georgia are in trouble especially if A-10 steals one.
B101 -
Am I crazy or is St. Mary's resume looking very, very shaky right now? Two good wins vs. St Johns (in early Nov) and at Gonzaga. If its who you play, and when you play them (SJU went on to lose to Fordham and Gonzaga was reeling at the time), I fail to see how St. Mary's can get in the tourney. And that San Diego loss? OUCH.
Alabama never won the SEC regular season title, Florida did. They are likely in though. BC on the other hand is in trouble. They have 2 wins over VT and Tex AM. They were swept by Miami and lost to Harvard once and it looks like Clemson twice. Kind of hard to put them above say Michigan when Michigan beat both Harvard and Clemson.
A few weeks ago, Temple fans held a funeral for the St. Joe's Red Hawk, because of St. Joe's cheer "The Hawk Will Never Die" and St. Joe's finished 12th in the A-10.
Well, St. Joes is dominating Duequesne right now for a trip to the semifinal...
I had Georgia as the 2nd team on the 10 line, BC the 3rd team on the 11 line and Michigan the 1st team on the 12 line.
So I have Georgia 2 seed lines better. Boston College is in trouble.
Lunardi having Bama and Georgia both out is a joke.
Second time McCamey has fouled a 3pt shooter in this half alone...
USC is looking pretty good now too but of course they havent played yet and there is a reason why they are on the bubble.
The question is..is there a seed low enough for St. Joe's if they win out?
@AG
Your comparing Alabama's situation to Miss St's last year. I dont think its quite the same because while Miss St did tie for a share of the SEC west, it was at 9-7 and not 12-4. Also with 3 more spots, a softer bubble, and a other bubble teams losing, I think Alabama is in better shape the Miss St.
BC isn't 'just' in trouble. They're walking dead right now. If they lose this game, they're out, too many bublle teams playing well, and even a few on the outside like New Mexico, and USC. BC would have been happier with a Georgia win too, because they aren't passing Georgia or Alabama now. I fail to see a scenario that BC makes it if they dont turn it on real soon.
We are on our way to the Garden tonight for the Big East semis. We'll check in periodically throughout the night. Based on results so far, we think:
Bama's in, Georgia's still in but maybe in a First Four game, and Xavier's looking at a 6 now. St. Mary's resume is shaky enough that they fell into the First Four today. We still think they get in, most likely as a 12 and quite possibly a First Four.
We'll be checking Twitter tonight too from the game, so you can post question there as well. Enjoy what should be a crazy night of games.
Chris & Craig
I mean, I remember a couple years back when LSU went 12-4 in a god-awful SEC West and got an 8 seed (they got destroyed by UNC anyway) but was their nonconference SoS as pathetisad as Alabama's?
lol @ Michigan being a "3-seed" in the NIT...if they don't make the tournament, they will be a NIT 1-seed get serious
Michigan loss to Illinois = 6 seed. Solid wins guys.
TIED GAME. MAIZE AND BLUE.
No way Michigan just tied it at 51 :(
Don't look now Michigan haters, Michigan just tied it up.
Illinois 51
Michigan 51
Pretty sure this is the biggest game in B101 history.
According to KenPom, LSU went 13-3 in 2009 but they only had 3 nonconf losses all to Top 100 teams and got an 8 seed.
I mean, the SEC West is as bad as some low-major conferences, and Alabama has lost to some low-majors. I mean do they really have an at-large profile much better than Harvard, or even Belmont or Oakland?
I know people said nobody with that many major-conference wins can get left out, but Nova's about to get the first at-large given to a team ending the season on a 5 game losing streak, so there's a first time for everything.
Illinois is out. oh man they are horrible. i cant believe how bad they are. there is no way they are in even though they are tied with 3 min left. they are done. wow wow
Dont understand all the Georgia love. Despite a nice 4-3 start against quality teams, the have are 1-8 in their last 9 games against the top-100(fyi - those are called quality opponents). Anybody can lose to good teams. They are in deep, deep trouble.
If Illinois loses this they are still probably a 9 seed.
Glockner just said Michigan is more than likely out it the lose.
woooooooooo
#teamrealist
Just saying it seems like a lot of you Michigan fans are bandwagons where were you defending your team when Illinois was pounding you guys and then when Michigan comes back you start screaming for Michigan again
IMO, Alabama is in better shape now, but still not a lock, Georgia's bubble has burst, and BC's is about to also(clearing the way for Southern California to join the festivities, albeit temporarily). Also, Michigan will be sweating it out should they lose.
Wolverines up 3!! Do I smell 7 seed???
Michigan 56
Illinois 53
1:27 left
I hope this place explodes.
St. Joes up three! Do i smell a play in game?
BC is crapping the bed right now in a must win game. Buh-bye.
UM-ILL just got good, as did Duquesne-St. Joes. Can you feel the madness?
Ugh as a fan of a team on the bubble these epic choke jobs by Georgia and Illinois are just killing me! Add Northwestern and Miami and NOBODY is protecting their leads.
FREE THROWS!
Eric I'm with you lets go Hokies!!
Here's to Purdue/MSU being the first Big Ten game of the day not to go to OT. Can you feel it now?
Michigan misses the clutch free throw
Lol Michigan = in.
Let the madness roll on.
Illinois isn't out. They're not finishing the season well, but they're not out.
Michigan, on the other hand, is in. Sorry, Will.
Michigan 60
Illinois 55
F
As the legendary Pistons Head Coach Chuck Daly once said:
"Don't *EVER* underestimate the heart of a champion!"
As Shaq once said:
"Tell me how my +++ taste!"
GO BLUE BABY!!! GET YOUR DANCIN SHOES ON! WHERE ARE THE HATERS NOW!
WILLLLLLL!!!!!!!
Welcome to the tournament, Michigan
21-4 run to end the game. Illinois blows.
4:30PM bracket
Michigan and Clemson are now safely in.
The 1's - Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, Texas, North Carolina, Syracuse
The 3's - Purdue, Florida, UConn, San Diego State
The 4's - BYU, Wisconsin, Louisville, Kentucky
The 5's - Vanderbilt, WVU, St Johns, Arizona
The 6's - Kansas State, Xavier, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
The 7's - Georgetown, Temple, UNLV, Old Dominion*
The 8's - Missouri, Florida State, Utah State, Marquette
The 9's - George Mason, Illinois, Villanova, UCLA
The 10's - Tennessee, Butler*, Richmond, Gonzaga
The 11's - Washington, Colorado, Michigan, Clemson
The 12's - Alabama, Georgia, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech Memphis
The 13's - Belmont*, Harvard, Oakland*, Wofford*
The 14's - Bucknell, Indiana State*, Long Beach State, Saint Peters*
The 15's - Morehead State*, Kent State, Long Island*, Northern Colorado*
The 16's - Boston U, UNC-Asheville*, McNese State, Arkansas Little Rock*, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman
Last 5 in: Alabama, Georgia, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech
Last 5 out: Penn State, USC, Boston College, UAB, New Mexico
Others Considered: VCU, Missouri State, UTEP
Id put the UofZero ducks in over Mich
WHERE ARE THE MICHIGAN HATERS!! HELL YES!! GO BLUE! THEY OFFICIALLY PUNCHED A TICKET! KEEP HATIN ON BIG BLUE!
I can't wait to pick St. john's or temple or G-town or Arizona or Cincinatti over Michigan...
Can we add another First Four group and force Missouri, Villanova, Illinois, and Georgia to play each other, because apparently none of those teams have any interest in playing like a tournament team. All four should count their blessings that the field is larger and particularly weak. About 20 teams in the country are playing like they want an 11 or 12 seed.
Hey GoBlue, congrats on the win, but you're the reason nobody like Michigan fans. The haters all said win a couple of games. You did, and now you're on the right side of the bubble. Before today you were right on the fringe, how DARE someone claim you shouldn't be in before the W today!
GO BLUE! IM RIGHT THERE WITH YOU, TIRED OF HEARIN THE DOUBTERS. MICHIGAN IS DANCING BABY, KEEP PICKING AGAINST THEM!
Great play by St. Joes to tie it with 1.5 left. ANOTHER OVERTIME!
Congrats to Michigan...they earned it. Now I need my Nittany Lions to beat Wisconsin tonight.
I hope to God that Mich is my first round matchup for a tune up game.
Great comeback for the Wolverines, they are in. Probably looking at a 10/11 seed.
Clemson is in. BC is toast, that was a pathetic showing.
Tim Hardaway may be a biggot.. BUT WE HITTIN UP THE WHITE GIRLS TONIGHT.
HAIL TO MICHIGAN.
5 SEED OR BUST.
Now that Michigan is a LOCK! I too am rooting for PSU. I think they are deserving if they win. It would be ashame for Battle never to make the NCAA'S. Hes somethin special.
All these michigan fans should send letters to the committee... I want my noles to get them in the first round.
IMHO, BC's former spot has been taken by Alabama. I'm not 100% sure Clemson is in, but they probably are.
I don't think you want to make that 5-seed or bust declaration, Anon...
This board has to be livid right about now. What a sigh of relief. Was really getting anxious about being left out on Sunday.
Whew!
I'm a dedicated Michigan fan and never gave up belief in that game. However, I'm not going to be "one-of-those" UofM fans. We played bad basketball for 32 minutes and superb basketball for 8 minutes; that won't get it done in the tournament. I do think we're a 10-seed now, but I won't complain if they give us an 11-seed, at least we get to be in the tournament. At the beginning of the season, I said I would be happy if the team finished .500 overall...now we're dancing. Projected to finish tenth in the B10, finished fourth, no seniors...bright future!
Last 5 in: Alabama, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Georgia, Virginia Tech
Last 5 out: Penn State, USC, Boston College, UAB, New Mexico
PSU and USC both in with wins today.
I would have said that they need one more, but after watching the shut down a larger, more physical Illinois team when it mattered I'll have to slide to the Michigan safely in column too.
Should have seen this coming though. It's been their style all season. Give up a big lead, reel the team back in and take it at the end. It bit them against Wisconsin and a couple others, but here it worked.
Good Job Michigan. You proved something here. But a win against OSU would be a sight to see.
Can Can we sub UofM "haters" for realist? Cuz im pretty sure all any of the "haters" said was that Michigan needed to beat Ill and if they didnt then they had a pretty unimpressive resume, but if they did then they'd be in. I think that was a fair assessment of the situation.
Anon@4:41, Congrats on the win, and yes the future is very bright for you guys.
Regarding your latest bracket, would the committee take into consideration the possibility of BYU and Kansas State playing in the (previously) 2nd Round for the second year in a row?
@Chris in NC: Obviously Ohio St is going to be a heavy favorite, but Michigan plays a similar style to Northwestern which gave Ohio St a lot of problems. Both games in the regular season were relatively close. If Michigan shoots the 3 well, and their big guys contain Sullinger they can hang with the Buckeyes. On the other hand, if Diebler gets hot and the Wolverines aren't hitting shots it will be a blowout.
fair statement, just funny at halftime how many people said Michigan was heading to the NIT? WHERE ARE YOU NOW?
Whoa, Anon... You can't take away the haters... They have to have the belief that people ABSOLUTELY believe they can't do it, or else it doesn't mean anything to them...
Haters said they didn't belong in the conversation, obv wishful thinking
Oh, and what is Saint Mary's doing playing an OOC game against Weber State four days after the WCC Tournament Final??
Go Blue!
Well at halftime mich was losing and was heading to the NIT. Then they turned it around and won so everyone said they are in. I dont see the big deal?
To be frank about this, Michigan haters will still be consuming mass quantities of haterade even after what happened. Those haters make me want to respect Michigan more(their hockey program on the other hand, is something else entirely).
Listen UM Fans: I think your team is wonderful. TIm Hardaway Jr is a star in the making and Darius Morris brings experience and composure to a young time. Jordan Morgan can muscle download with the big boys and Beilein can flat coach. I think you are have a shot at a Sweet 16 run if you shoot well from beyond the arc.
Now, please please stop talking about your team on this board. This is a forum for bracketology talk - who is in who is out what seed are people getting - not to endlessly discuss the Michigan Wolverine Baskebtall Team. There are plenty of UM-Dedicated forums and online communities out there please migrate your discussion there. Thanks.
Listen UM Fans: I think your team is wonderful. TIm Hardaway Jr is a star in the making and Darius Morris brings experience and composure to a young time. Jordan Morgan can muscle download with the big boys and Beilein can flat coach. I think you are have a shot at a Sweet 16 run if you shoot well from beyond the arc.
Now, please please stop talking about your team on this board. This is a forum for bracketology talk - who is in who is out what seed are people getting - not to endlessly discuss the Michigan Wolverine Baskebtall Team. There are plenty of UM-Dedicated forums and online communities out there please migrate your discussion there. Thanks.
What is the NCAA record for the biggest margin of defeat in the tourny? Could Michigan set the record?
That's just mean... Why post under my name?
What seed will Utah St be if they lose tonite?
One word...Yes
But in all seriousness I co-sign anon 4:56. No more Michigan talk please.
Ohio State is playing the best basketball in the country with North Carolina (who is peaking at exactly the right time). It's going to be hard to beat the Bucs (and I hate saying that)...
But heck, go blue, beat OSU.
So the question I have for the board is, if MSU gets blown out by Purdue, do they have any chance of not getting in?
Duquesne goes down, they'll be in the NIT.
Dayton and St Joe's are the biggest enemies of bubble teams right now.
B101... What has U of M done to distinguish themselves from the field? Are we THAT blinded by a strong finish? Can I get 5 rational reasons that they deserve to be in over Colorado, who has FIVE wins over tourney teams?
I'm a huge Michigan fan and I still agree with Anon @ 4:56...as much as I love talking about the team, this is a general bracketology board, let's use it as such...Dayton vs. St. Joe's in the A-10 semis, who saw that one coming? Bubble team fans need to get there Temple and Richmond hats on about nowish.
Wait..there's life after Illinois-Michigan?
Congrats Wolverine fans. Sorry, Will.
Next topic please.
Pretty please?
Here, Here to Anon 4:56!!!
Btw, Jerry Palm currently has VCU as last four in and Colorado as last four out. LOL. how does this guy still have a job? hes a joke. CBS Sportsline should hire B101!!!
Dear Will,
Michigan's in, deal with it.
Moving on, B101, who is the likely victim if the A-10 steals a bid, looking more and more likely as Xavier and Duquesne fall...
What game is everyone looking forward to the most tonight? VaTech/FSU? BYU/New Mexico? Rhode Island/Richmond? UNLV/SDSU? Texas/Texas A&M?
Up to the second.
1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Purdue, Texas, North Carolina
3's: BYU, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Connecticut, Kentucky
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Illinois, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson, Gonzaga
11's: Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s, Michigan State
12's: (Washington vs Alabama), Butler, (Georgia vs USC), UTEP
13's: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Morehead State
14's: Bucknell, Long Island, Indiana St, Kent St
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, UNC-Asheville, (McNeese St vs Texas Southern), (Bethune-Cookman vs Arkansas-Little Rock)
AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s, Michigan State
LAST FOUR IN: Washington, Alabama, Georgia, USC
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Memphis, Penn State
NEXT FOUR OUT: UAB, Boston College, VCU, Missouri State
I think a lot of you are getting ahead of yourself.
C-USA is going to be a two bid league or more.
Dayton or St. Joe's will play in the A-10 finale.
Utah State stil hasn't won the WAC yet.
USC and Oregon are still alive in the Pac-10.
New Mexico might beat BYU for the third time.
Anonymous said...
"What game is everyone looking forward to the most tonight? VaTech/FSU? BYU/New Mexico? Rhode Island/Richmond? UNLV/SDSU? Texas/Texas A&M?"
Can I pick all please? If I have to take 1, its the VT/FSU game.
Dustin , I like that bracket a lot but I think USC/VT will switch places after the results of tonight.
duq was never in so their loss matters not.
bid stealer from a-10 still unlikely as they will probably face richmond or temple in the finals.
This was Michigan's play-in game. They'll be in the NIT as a 3 seed (maybe a 2, depending on how other tournaments shake out), and that's much better than anyone expected them to be when the season began.
No height, very little athleticism, weak outside shooting, no depth, little experience. Making the NIT might've been above Michigan's ceiling, but they tied for 4th in the Big Ten and lost some close games against teams that will be high seeds in the NCAA field.
For next season, Beilein needs to look to Europe, Africa or South America for some big men who can shoot and rebound.
Haters gonna hate.
This is why Michigan fans are having fun! Go Blue
Incorrect: C-USA is a one bid league and it will be either Memphis or UTEP. No at larges from this mediocre group...
UNM HAS TO BE IN, if they win tonight, right? 3 game sweep over a 2 seed?
Quality win, now let us never speak of it again.
In other news, good old fashioned hate up tonight in the ACC with Duke playing Maryland. Not bubble-relevant but should be a good one.
Other bubble teams need to pull hard for ECU because if its Memphis and UTEP in the final they're both getting in.
Georgia is barely hanging on to their spot. If anyone steals a bid, or if USC, PSU, New Mexico start winning, Georgia has a good chance to miss out.
If New Mexico beats BYU, they'll be very very close, if not in.
I don't see how unm stands a chance yes the wins over buy are nice but I mean 8-8 in the mwc??????
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