Friday, March 11, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 11

Thursday Recap
Here's what we learned from Thursday's games:

1. UAB looks like they will be joining Missouri State in the NIT. The regular season champs from Conference USA were unceremoniously dumped by East Carolina in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney on Thursday, and as a result, they fell to the First Four Out list in today's bracket. For the last week, we thought an outright C-USA title might be enough for the Blazers, but we also figured they would make at least the semis of the conference tourney. Losing their first game is a crushing blow, and one that they probably won't recover from. They needed at least one win to help offset a 2-4 record against Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and Southern Miss combined.

2. UAB's loss is Virginia Tech's gain. The Hokies have been our First Team out since Monday, but they now slide into the field to take the Blazers' vacated spot. Virginia Tech needs to beat Florida State today to stay in the field on Saturday.

3. Colorado officially owns Kansas State, and the Buffs are probably going dancing as a result. They're still not a lock by any means, but it's probably going to be tough for the selection committee to ignore a third win over the Wildcats, on top of wins over Texas and Missouri. (If only they could have beaten someone out of conference...) Kansas State, meanwhile, falls from the end of the 5 line to the top of the 7 line.

4. The Pac-10 is a mess, and it's probably going to get messier. UCLA got blown out by Oregon to fall from a 7 seed to an 8, Washington needed a second-half comeback to edge Washington State, and USC beat Cal to keep their steadliy improving at-large chances going. A strong case could be made that the Trojans deserve a bid if they beat Arizona today. If they do win, and then beat Washington in the final, will the Pac-10 get four bids? Is Washington in danger if they lose in the final to USC? What happens if the Huskies lose to the Ducks in the semis and USC wins the tourney? Could Washington get squeezed?

5. Michigan State (vs. Iowa), Boston College (vs. Wake Forest), Georgia (vs. Auburn), and Tennessee (vs. Arkansas) are safe - for now - after avoiding what could have been bubble-bursting first-round conference tournament losses. Michigan State moved from the Last Four In list to the bottom of the 11 line.

6. Penn State is also still alive after their win over Indiana. The Nittany Lions need at least a win over Wisconsin today to get in. That win might be enough, it might not, depending on what else happens over the next 48 hours.

7. Kemba Walker vs. Gary McGhee is not a fair fight. What a step-back move. Yikes.

8. Pitt's still a 1 seed. The Panthers won the regular season title in the best league in the country and have nine Top 50 wins. Could Duke really get a 1 seed over Pitt despite finishing second in the ACC and potentially needing to win just one tough game to get to the ACC tourney final?

9. Notre Dame looked an awful lot like a 1 seed and Syracuse looked a lot like a 2 seed. Cincinnati and Marquette looked like teams that knew their jobs in New York were already done.

10. Kansas is good enough to sleepwalk their way through at least one round of the Big XII tournament. Missouri looks destined for an 8/9 game after their quarterfinal loss to Texas A&M. The Aggies, meanwhile, could be a 5 if they beat Texas today.

11. Colorado State's bubble is burst, but New Mexico's is still very much intact. The Lobos beat the Rams 67-61 in the MWC quarters last night, setting up a third meeting with BYU today. New Mexico swept the season series from BYU, and if they can pick up a third win, they would be a very interesting at-large candidate. They'll have to hope three wins over the Cougars cancel out an ugly 8-8 conference record.

12. Kent State (MAC), Long Beach State (Big Sky), and McNeese State (Southland) are still the favorites to win their conference tournaments.

Friday Preview
We'll keep it simple. Here's what every bubble team has to do today:

Colorado - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.

New Mexico - Beat BYU (again) and they get serious consideration. They have no chance with a loss.

Penn State - Win and they likely end up on the Last Four In line. They have no chance with a loss.

USC - Win and they will either be the last team in or out. No chance with a loss.

Georgia - Same as Colorado. Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but they will have a long two days of waiting.

Alabama - Win and they are fairly safe. Lose and it's tough to imagine scenarios where they don't get squeezed.

Michigan State - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe.

Michigan - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should still be safe, but it also depends on what Penn State and Michigan State do.

Boston College - Win and they're in, lose and they're out.

Clemson - Win and they likely will be one of the last teams in, lose and they are done.

Richmond - Win and they are an absolute lock. Lose and they should be safe, but it will be a long two days.

Virginia Tech - Win and they are in, lose and they are likely out.

St. Mary's - Nothing really to gain from the Weber State game. They are expected to win big and need to do so.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

St. Mary's, Boston College, Alabama, Virginia Tech

First Four Out
UAB, USC, Clemson, Penn State

Next Four Out
Missouri State, VCU, New Mexico, Memphis

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune-Cookman

MVC - Indiana State

MWC
- BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue

The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas

The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Connecticut

The 5s
St. John's, Xavier, Arizona, West Virginia

The 6s
Texas A&M, Temple, Georgetown, Cincinnati

The 7s
Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, UNLV

The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee

The 9s
Missouri, Illinois, Florida State, Marquette

The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan State

The 12s
Colorado, St. Mary's vs. Boston College (FF), Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont,
Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State,
Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















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374 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 374 of 374
Anonymous said...

Seriously why is saint marys playing?

give me the brandy said...

UNM will be squarely on the bubble if they beat BYU and then lose in the MWC finals. The 3 BYU wins are great, but 2 of them will be against BYU without Davies. Other than that they've beat Colorado and CSU twice and that's it. They have a bunch of bad losses, just 8-8 in MWC and 254 OOC SOS (with losses to Cal, Dayton and UNI). I don't think they're in unless they win the tournament.

Dustin said...

The MWC is pretty strong. Its better than the Pac-10.

SDSU, BYU, UNLV are all top 5 seeds. New Mexico and Colorado State are close to in.

New Mexico has an OOC win over Colorado too.

Anonymous said...

what are UTEP's at large chances if they beat Tulsa? Does Utah St. have an at large to fall back on should they not win the WAC?

Dustin said...

UTEPs profile isn't impressive, and anything but a tournament win on their own home floor would be a negative against them. They have to win the tournament in my opinion.

Utah State would be in if they lose, somewhere around a 10, or 11.

Anonymous said...

Somebody please summarize UAB, Memphis, UTEP, and Tulsa's at-large chances for me. Thanks!

Dustin said...

Memphis has the best chance at an at-large. If they make the finals they'll probably get in.

UAB is on the outside looking in, but they have a longshot to make it if Memphis wins the auto-bid. If UTEP wins the auto-bid, then Memphis would be the most attractive at-large and UAB would be out of luck.

Those are the only teams in C-USA that have an at-large shot in my opinion.

DavidATL said...

@anon 5:21

St. Mary's is playing because their tournament ends early and they want to keep sharp. Otherwise, they would have their single longest stretch without playing a game all season right before the Big Dance -- longer than Xmas, longer than New Years. They chose a team that they will clearly beat, so it is like a live scrimage. They did the same thing last year. I like the idea. Of course if they lose or get some bad injury, well, then, I hate the idea.

Anonymous said...

mwc is still 4th best conference out there this year so I think New Mexico could get in with a win tonight. It's hard to reject the fourth best team from 4th best conference when ur taking at least 5 SEC teams, which is technically the fifth best conferece.

Anonymous said...

kentucky only up 3 now to ole miss. 7th out of 8 games today that is going down to wire in power conference tournys.

Anonymous said...

what if st marys loses tonite and knocks them out of the tourney? wouldn't that be funny?

Dustin said...

Kentucky looks like the worst 4 seed ever.

Dustin said...

John Calipari is a crazy person......

Eric said...

I think the idea of Saint Mary's playing another game is a horrible idea. Just play your schedule and hope you did enough during the season. If you didn't, maybe you should have scheduled a more difficult lineup or won the games you did.

Really though, the idea of a loss or a huge injury makes it a lose-lose situation. Chances are the committee pretty much ignores the game anyways. It's against a team with an RPI of 152. That won't move the meter any either way.

Dustin said...

Eric, they aren't doing it to improve their resume. They're doing it to stay fresh. If they made the tournament they wouldn't have played in 2 weeks.

zlionsfan said...

Maybe it's a West Coast thing (geography, not conference). Portland State played at Seattle after the Big Sky tournament as well. (Yeah, the Vikings were awful this year, but they did win back-to-back bids in '08 and '09.)

I'm not sure that a loss to a solid team is going to knock MSU off the bubble (unless it's a bad loss and resumes are close enough that it comes down to details). I think at this point it's going to be more about wins.

Good to see Michigan getting a win to get them in; now they're a bubble team in instead of a bubble team out. Even winning the BTT wouldn't change that much.

Would have loved to see the SWAC title game, but I guess it's not televised outside the conference footprint.

Let's get some of this bubble stuff cleared up - these teams need to be losing or winning key games, not just shifting places (BC/Clemson).

Collin said...

^that is not the point they just want to stay sharp going into the touney

AG said...

Re: New Mexico, let's not forget that they were dead in the water before Drew Gordon became eligible. He was the difference maker vs. BYU the first time, and New Mexico is a different team than the one who lost to Wyoming and to Cal by 25.

Anonymous said...

BOW DOWN TO THE MAIZE AND BLUE.

Eric said...

USC coach Kevin O'Neill is suspended for the rest of the Pac-10 tournament. Could mean big things. (Although Mark Fox proved that coaches are sometimes a bad thing to have at the end of close games!)

Collin said...

Michigan State looking good verse Purdue up 29-20

Emmanuelle said...

I assume Will will be arguing against Michigan getting in even if they win the Big 10 tournament. Definitely no point in having a conversation with him anymore. It doesn't matter how often he is wrong... he will unappologetically dig his heels in deeper and deeper.

Collin said...

Michigan lovers say- 10 or 11 seed

Michigan haters say- out or First Four game.

Reality a 12 seed with a bye.

Collin said...

Michigan State up 37-23 now

Emmanuelle said...

Oh, but last point...

Will's last argument is HILLARIOUS.

Yes, Colorado has 5 wins over tournament teams, but Michigan has 6 wins (or 8 depending on PSU) over tournament teams. Is that too many wins to get a bid or something?

And of course, this is completely ignoring the host of bad losses Colorado has, as well as their 1-3 record against common opponents, compared to Michigan's 2-2 record.

Anonymous said...

What channel is MSU purdue on I cant find it out here on the east coast? also, Bethune Cookman is losing right now to morgan state...Cookman and Hampton are the only halfway decent MEAC teams (oxymoron I know) but Morgan St and norfolk st are TERRIBLE.

Aneeda Bath said...

I still can't believe no love for Utah Valley if they win the Great West. They should get to play UNC Asheville in a play in game to get in the play in game.

Anonymous said...

Purdue-Michigan State is on Big Ten Network.

Collin said...

Michigan State versus Purdue is on the Big Ten Network

Anonymous said...

So are Memphis and UTEP in and UAB out?

Apissedant said...

How does the embarrassment change BC's position?

Eileen Uhlik said...

I agree give Utah Valley a shot if they win the Great West tournament. They could most bubble teams due to match up problems including Michigan, UAB, and Missouri State.

mistersuits said...

No matter how you slice it... there are no teams in the country right now that couldn't lose to any other tournament team on any given day. I think this year's NCAA is going to be special.

Anonymous said...

Does Purdue fall to a 4 seed with a loss?

Anonymous said...

I think BC is about 90& out now. Other bubble teams showed up today and BC hasn't. Best bet for them is Va tech to lose tonight and commitee gives a 5th ACC bid to BC. Highly doubtfull they get in tho.

Kalen Lucas has just been amazing tonight against purdue. Wouldn't be suprised at all if Mich St. wins big ten tourney.

Chase said...

As of 8PM

Last 5 in: Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Alabama
Last 5 out: Penn State, USC, Boston College, VCU, New Mexico
Others Considered: UAB, Missouri State

Michigan State moves to lock status with a win. Clemson/Michigan/Colorado would vie for the 1st last 5 in.

Pretty simple tweeps.

USC beats Zona and in the tournament.

PSU beats Wisconsin and they're in, easily.

New Mexico needs to beat BYU or they're no longer considered.

Va Tech need to win to remain in.

Everything will be a lot clearer in 4 hours time.

Anonymous said...

I love how all these Michigan fans are excited that they "should" be in the NCAA tourney, where they will get the living shit kicked out of them by a team that is not reeling in the Big 10 (I.e. Illinois). If there is 1 team I would rather play than Michigan, it would be Illinois. Illinois is a lock to lose first round in the NCAA tourney

Anonymous said...

Michigan is in. There is no "should be" about it.

Chase said...

East Carolina getting pounded. Can't see UAB in consideration anymore.

John said...

Hey, how about we stop talking about Michigan all together. This is a bracketology blog not a Michigan blog. I am a Michigan student and even I am sick of seeing all of the comments about Michigan on here (both good and bad).

Michigan said...

Would Florida drop to a 4 with a loss?

Michael said...

Welcome to the dance msu, that makes 3 teams from michigan.

Dustin said...

As much as it displeases me because I dont think they deserve a bid without winning the tournament, Memphis is likely in now.

Maryland down 1 to Duke.

Michigan States win is going to wreak havoc throughout the bracket.

Its a good thing Colorado did enough earlier in the tournament, because they didnt come to play today.

RPI 312 Grambling is in the SWAC final.

Florida looks flat, down 5 to Tennessee at half.

UCONN and Syracuse is as exciting as advertised with 9 left.

Chase said...

Last 5 in: Clemson, Saint Mary's, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Alabama
Last 5 out: Penn State, USC, Boston College, UAB, New Mexico
Others Considered: VCU, Missouri State

Michael said...

Bubble teams root against penn st right now, if they win they are in.

Chase said...

Penn State up 8-0.

Anonymous said...

Penn State coming out strong! 10-0 psu

AG said...

PSU is now up 16-2.

I don't know how many bids the Big Ten is getting, but it MUST be more than the SEC!

Anonymous said...

Bubble teams and Illinois should be shaking with the Big Ten results today.

Dustin said...

Anyone feel like dissing Kemba tonight?

Anonymous said...

PSU skull fucking Wisconsin - 18 to 2!

Dustin said...

Oh stop, Illinois is fine. If anything, Georgia should just make plans to reserve its home court for the NIT.

Anonymous said...

Penn St. is not in with a win. A win would put them on the bubble. Georgia and Alabama looks to be in trouble with today's Big 10 results. Have to think Clemson might need to win tomorrow as well

Anonymous said...

LMAO at Penn State isn't with a win tonight.

KenPom has them rated 47th.

Michigan said...

6 points in 12+ minutes for Wisconsin? Really?

Looks like Florida is going to advance to the semis.

Dustin said...

If Penn State wins, they move to first team out for me....unless New Mexico wins too.

Mark said...

To have St Mary's, Alabama or Boston College over Penn State if they beat Wisconsin is pathetic and insane.

mattlion said...

First 10 minutes: PSU 18, Wisconsin 2.

Second 10 minutes: Wisconsin 14, PSU 2.

Thank God this game is on the Big Ten Network so most people aren't being subjected to it.

JGibson said...

Penn State's now only scored 2 points over the second 10 minutes of the first half. Lead's gone from 18-2 to 20-16 in that half. 14-2 "run" for Wisconsin.

Dustin said...

Up to the second.

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Texas, North Carolina, BYU
3's: Florida, Purdue, Syracuse, San Diego State
4's: Wisconsin, Louisville, Connecticut, Kentucky
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Illinois, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson, Gonzaga
11's: Michigan State, Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s,
12's: (Washington vs Alabama), Butler, (Georgia vs USC), UTEP
13's: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St, Kent St
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, UNC-Asheville, (McNeese St vs Texas Southern), (Hampton vs Arkansas-Little Rock)

AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Michigan State, Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s
LAST FOUR IN: Washington, Alabama, Georgia, USC
FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Memphis, Penn State
NEXT FOUR OUT: UAB, Boston College, VCU, Missouri State

Anonymous said...

The Penn State fans on this board are almost as annoying as the Michigan fans. They played no one in the non-conference and lost some bad games. Then went 9-9 in the Big Ten. One win over Wisconsin does not get you into the tourney.

Kyle said...

Jimmer Fredette - 33 points at halftime

Penn State/Wisconsin - 36 combined points at halftime

mattlion said...

"The Penn State fans on this board are almost as annoying as the Michigan fans. They played no one in the non-conference and lost some bad games. Then went 9-9 in the Big Ten. One win over Wisconsin does not get you into the tourney."



I agree, and I graduated from PSU. Most years this team wouldn't even be in the discussion, with a home loss to an America East team, a home rout to a mediocre ACC team, and having 6 of our 9 conference wins come against the 4 worst teams in the league. However, because our schedule somehow ended up being a top 10 SOS schedule, and we've been competitive with a few of the beasts of the Big Ten, we're on the fringes of the discussion.

Personally, for us to surely get in, I think we have to be playing a couple of hours before the selection show.

To be fair, we got screwed in 2009. This team though is nowhere near as good as the 2009 team.

Michigan said...

= LOL

Watching Wisconsin is painful.

Apissedant said...

I would like to point out that almost all of the teams we debate about in this forum will be losing in the first round of the tournament. That's why they're all going to be seeded between 10 and 12, and playing teems seeded between 5 and 7. Every single of of them is SUPPOSED to lose in the first round. I'm not sure if everyone here is exactly familiar with how seeding works.

mattlion said...

"I would like to point out that almost all of the teams we debate about in this forum will be losing in the first round of the tournament. That's why they're all going to be seeded between 10 and 12, and playing teems seeded between 5 and 7. Every single of of them is SUPPOSED to lose in the first round. I'm not sure if everyone here is exactly familiar with how seeding works."

Correct.

In 2002, arguably the "last team in", Missouri, made it to the Elite 8.

In 2007, arguably the "last team in", George Mason, made it to the Final 4.

Ever since those runs, everyone who has a hope of a bubble appearance dreams of glory.

Michigan said...

^
Party pooper.

Michigan said...

^

Re: Apissedant

Daniel said...

10-12 seeds were...

6-6 in 2010
7-5 in 2009
4-8 in 2008

"Almost all...will be losing in the first round of the tournament" isn't really supported by the historical evidence.

AG said...

....and thanks for playing, Virginia Tech. Or rather, not playing.

Looks like UNC, Duke, FSU, and Clemson is it from the ACC.

FranchiseJC said...

Jimmer or Kemba, who's POY!? Kemba is so clutch, all-around player...Jimmer's working on 50+

Anonymous said...

new mexico.. CYA

vt... PEACE

penn state.. HELLO

USC... CYA

mike said...

ed hightower. lol

Kyle said...

Penn St 35
Wisconsin 30

1:11 left

unreal

Anonymous said...

mike you saw that tackle no call too?

Anonymous said...

Jimmer is only 16 points shy of the combined Wisky-PSU score. Pitiful.

Anonymous said...

all you fuckers said Penn State had to beat Wisconsin.. and granted it was an ugly game.. THEY DID IT.

Anonymous said...

PENN STATE BABY!

Kyle said...

Penn State wins 36-33

Anonymous said...

Man Penn St. is celebrating like they just won the national championship... They still might have to be Mich St. cause I just dont know if 7 teams can make it. I think either them or Illinois might be really dissapointed come Sunday.

Anonymous said...

beat*

Michigan said...

So who predicted a Penn State-Michigan State semifinal in the Big Ten before Thursday?.....

Anonymous said...

I can't say good win because that game was a travesty to the sport. But it was a win.

Will be curious to see the projections tomorrow. Don't think PSU can get in without beating MSU tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

LET'S GO SPIDERS

MichigIN said...

So Jimmer has 2 points more than what Wisconsin scored in the first half + 2x their second half scoring.

Trent said...

Big Ten bubble teams representing today - kind of.

AG said...

I mean, could you give the Big Ten 7 and the ACC and SEC only 4 each?

One thing's for sure: enough bubble teams have delivered today that Utah State will not get an at-large. And seeing how they just beat San Jose State the 8 seed by 4, they might need one.

mattlion said...

"I mean, could you give the Big Ten 7 and the ACC and SEC only 4 each?"


Pretty sure the SEC is going to get 5.

IF the Big Ten gets 7, guaranteed one of them will be playing Tuesday.

On a related note, can we stop the USC talk now? Please?

Anonymous said...

Yeah they won their semifinal game so they might need an at large. Are you kidding me?

Chase said...

11PM

Last 5 in: Clemson, Saint Mary's, Penn State, Georgia, Alabama
Last 5 out: Virginia Tech, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State, UAB

No longer considering USC or New Mexico.

msutter said...

It's looking like Big Ten is getting 7 Bids. The Big Ten bubble teams have better resumes now than Boston College, Georgia, Virgina Tech, USC, Clemson, and other bubble teams.

Dustin said...

Slow down on PSU. They aren't in yet. They need to beat MSU.

Anonymous said...

Illinois is still ahead of Michigan so Penn state winning is only hurting michigan in that its making it so they might have to win another to not get not get squeezed. Michigan is still ahead of Penn state though so I dont know if Penn state is in yet.

Anonymous said...

@11:19

What? Michigan is solidly in, PSU is maybe the last team in right now. Michigan plays OSU, PSU plays an MSU team.

Even if PSU wins and UM loses, are you honestly saying PSU would leapfrog a team losing to the #1 overall, who has beaten PSU twice already, after PSU beat a team UM also beat twice this season.

Ugh, my brain hurts...

Chase said...

Slow down on what? They beat Wisconsin. Teams are falling everywhere. USC, New Mexico. As of tonight, they're in brah.

Anonymous said...

Michigan is not getting left out. They can't possibly lose ground by losing to the number 1 team in the nation and they swept both PSU and MSU and also beat Clemson.

Anonymous said...

Are you people retarded? They don't put teams in/take teams out based on conference affiliation.

PSU beating Michigan has no correlation with that hurting Michigan's chances.

Dustin said...

If VT wins they'll be 2 spots out. If VT loses PSU will be the last out.

Anonymous said...

Penn State or Illnois will be out. I dont see that many b10 teams making it.

Anonymous said...

Michigan still has not beat 1 quality opponent...

They will get pushed out by better wins from other bubble teams..

USC still has better profile than mich

Anonymous said...

11:27

Troll elsewhere pleasekthx.

Emmanuelle said...

Daniel,

Youdo understand they just expanded the field by an extra 2 teams, right? That means two of them are going to get knocked out before the first round even kicks off.

You then add this to this historical data:

5.The #5 seed is 69-35 against the #12 seed (66.35%).
6.The #6 seed is 71-33 against the #11 seed (68.27%).
7.The #7 seed is 62-42 against the #10 seed (59.62%).


So 2 of 14 of them will get bumped before the first round even begins. Of the 12 that survive, about 2/3 of them are expected to lose in the actual first round. That's another 8.

That means the HISTORICAL expectation is for 10 of the 14 bottom at large teams to be knocked out during the first round.

I think that qualifies as most. I can check the definition, but I don't think there's much point.

The lowest seed to EVER reach the final was an 8 seed.

AG said...

What I meant is that if Utah State could only beat the 8th best team in the WAC by 4 points, what chance do they have vs. the Boise/NMSU winner?

Remember, Utah State has only won the WAC Tournament *ONCE*. 3 of the last 5 years they lost in the final as the #1 seed, although two of those losses were to NMSU and Nevada on their home floors.

Still, WAC Regular Season Champ or not, Utah State will not get an at large if they lose in the final. If they do, it will be because the selection committee made a concerted effort to include more mid-majors.

Is it possible the committee might look at all these bubble teams winning and say "maybe we should take some mid-majors so there aren't too many tough teams at the bottom of the bracket."

Emmanuelle said...

NO MORE MICHIGAN TALK!!!!!

Marcus said...

you guys make me LOL.

Penn State is in. B101 said so earlier in the day on his blog. hop off. boston college got killed (out), georgia lost (last 4 in or out), virginia tech is going to lose (out), new mexico (who sucks, out) lost to a 1 man team, usc (who some of you had in.. CRAZY) lost and are out.

winning a game 2-0, 100-94 or 36-33 makes no difference. a win is a win. penn state had to get in by beating wisconsin and they did that. same with michigan state and purdue.

st mary's doesn't pass any eye test either. dont know why you guys had them in.

face facts folks..

michigan, michigan state and penn state brought it today while everyone else shit the bed. that means something to the committee who are all eating nachos watching these games as we are. alabama is the only other team who brought it.

Anonymous said...

The big 10 teams won there game. Michigan is not getting squeezed out. Wisc, Ill, Clemson, PSU, MSU are good wins. Before today most though Michigan was in without winning and the ones that didn't said they needed to beat Illinois. They did. No one can possibly be serious and say they need to beat the number 1 OSU to get in. USC has like 6 awful losses. They are done.

Anonymous said...

TRUTH Marcus, TRUTH my brother!

Anonymous said...

Alright I understand what you were saying AG. I guess you never know what can happen but Utah St. gets it done IMO.

Chase said...

Alabama State vs Grambling in the SWAC Finals.

These teams are dreadful.

Trent said...

I'm a Michigan fan and I'm getting sick of the Michigan talk. The Wolverines won, they are getting in, let's move on.

Anonymous said...

Buckets for VT!

Anonymous said...

did it leave in time?!

Anonymous said...

OHHH...nit for VT haha.

Chase said...

LOL.

Bye Tech.

Anonymous said...

that didnt leave in time.

Chase said...

it's no good!

Anonymous said...

Definitly not good.... Va Tech should win or this will be a travesty.

Anonymous said...

Its funny that Tech is always on the bubble. They will probably get screwed again.

Howard Salwasser said...

They waive it off! VA Tech's back in! Or are they?

Anonymous said...

Everyone should be happy for Va Tech. They deserve to be in and now they finally will be. (probably)

MichigIN said...

Unfortunately, it looks like VaTech is in (by literally the slimmest of margins).

Anonymous said...

I think they gotta beat Duke with all the big 10 bubble teams playing well.

mattlion said...

The NCAA tries to avoid rematches in the first round.

What about the "first 4"? VT and PSU did play this season. It could be one of the matchups.

Chase said...

11PM
Last 5 in: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, Penn State, Georgia
Last 5 out: Alabama, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State, UAB

Anonymous said...

B101, any ETA on when the next bracket is getting released with all the chaos today?

Daniel said...

"I think that qualifies as most. I can check the definition, but I don't think there's much point."

You can check the definition of "most" all you want, but the phrase you used was "almost all". I wouldn't have objected to "most".

Anonymous said...

OT in MSG..have a seen this before?

MichigIN said...

What a night at MSG.

Anonymous said...

I'll say it: ACC refs just wanted to send another ACC team to the tournament when it came down to such a close judgement call. That much was clear.

Anonymous said...

b101 at msg tonight so bracket probably wont be up for awhile.

Dustin said...

Up to the second.

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Texas, North Carolina, BYU
3's: Florida, Syracuse, Purdue, Louisville
4's: San Diego State, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Illinois, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson, Gonzaga
11's: Michigan State, Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s,
12's: (Washington vs Alabama), Butler, (Virginia Tech vs Georgia), UTEP
13's: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St, Kent St
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, UNC-Asheville, (McNeese St vs Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs Alabama St)

AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Michigan State, Richmond, Colorado, St. Mary’s
LAST FOUR IN: Washington, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Georgia
FIRST FOUR OUT: Memphis, Penn State, UAB, Boston College
NEXT FOUR OUT: USC, VCU, New Mexico, Missouri State

Anonymous said...

UConn is a 3 dude.

Lunardi has Penn State in, BTW.

Anonymous said...

Like above bracket although I think your too high on Michigan and definitly on Illinois. I think that the way other bubble teams played today Georgia is out by blowing that lead today. Probably put Penn St. in over them. Then again it's tough to see big ten with 7 bids.

Anonymous said...

As of now , it seems to me that Alabama/Georgia/Penn St are fighting for 2 spots. Every other team is pretty clearly in or out as of now. For example:

Clemson: IN
VT: IN
BC: OUT
Michigan: IN
Michigan St. : IN
New Mexico: Out
USC: Out
Illinois: IN
Colorado: IN
Memphis: OUT (unless AUTO)

Disagree?

mag900 said...

"I'll say it: ACC refs just wanted to send another ACC team to the tournament when it came down to such a close judgement call. That much was clear."

except that it was the correct call. were you taking a dump when the replayed it multiple times?

now that ND went down, goodbye 1 seed for ND. it's now all up to duke or unc to grab it.

Anonymous said...

don't worry bro, his seedings are all messed up and retarded.

mike said...

LAST FOUR IN

Virginia Tech
Colorado
USC
Penn State

FIRST FOUR OUT

Alabama
Boston College
Georgia
Memphis

NEXT OUT

UAB
Missouri State

USC?!

Lunardi is pathetic.

Dan said...

UNC cannot be a 1 seed. Not with that profile. Not with a 20 point lost to GT, not with ONE win over a team that's going to be a top 4 seed. Not happening.

Duke passes ND for a 1 seed if they win tomorrow night vs. VT.

Anonymous said...

Alabama or Georgia will get in before USC, Lunardi is an idiot. Perhaps both get in with USC and Penn St. both out if PSU goes down tomorrow. But USC is out no matter what.

Dustin said...

If UCONN wins tomorrow, they are a 3. They arent a 3 yet.

Kind of funny how I was having a ton of people tell me that I had UCONN too high, now I have them too low. Love it.

Lunardi keeps putting Alabama as his first team out regardless of what happens.

USC is done now.

Penn State's play-in/play-out game is tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

No, Dustin, you dipshit. UConn is a 3 right now.

They were a 4/5 to begin the week and just knocked off a 5/6 seed, a 2/3 seed and a #1.

Get over yourself and your faggoty ways.

Dustin said...

Love you too.

And you're still wrong.

Anonymous said...

you're a tool that thinks you know everything. you're posting your own theoretical bracket seeds on a blog dude. get a grip.

Dustin said...

You're wrong pal. And so what if I like guys? At least i'm not from Michigan.

Anonymous said...

This blog's a mess. From Dustin thinking he's > B101 and nobody is right. And then Michigan. Heh.

John said...

Few questions...:

San Diego State (if they hold on) vs BYU... Fight for 2 seed?

St. Mary's - In or Out?

Memphis/Boston College/Penn State - First Four Out?

Alabama/Illinois/Michigan State/Washington (if they win against Oregon) - Lock?

Dayton - Legit bid stealer?

Florida State - 10 seed?

Dustin said...

I fully admit Im not better than B101, but that doesn't mean I wont make my own predictions. If you dont like them, dont read them.

I love how worked up people get over someone elses opinion.

mag900 said...

"you're a tool that thinks you know everything. you're posting your own theoretical bracket seeds on a blog dude. get a grip."

seriously, get a life and get your own blog. nobody comes on here to get spammed by some dufus's bracket. the B101 guys are great and that's whose brackets we want to see.

Anonymous said...

What seed will the Ducks be WHEN they win the pac10 tourney?

^ This was a joke

Anonymous said...

It's our own Joe Lunardi everybody!

Justin said...

Any reason FSU isn't on the bubble now? Wins over Duke, Baylor, Clemson, Miami (x2) and BC are what they have. One tournament team and two bubble teams.

1-6 against the top 50.

6-15 against the top 100 depending on how things shake out (possibly 6-14/13 with some more bad losses).

Likely a sub-50 RPI and 80-90 SOS. Loss to bad Auburn. Looks like a bubble resume to me.

SamE said...

What's the farthest FSU could fall after the heartbreaking loss to VT? Am I crazy to think that the play-in game is a possibility?

This is our current resume...

Record: 21-10
Overall RPI: 55
Overall SOS: 81
Non-conf RPI: 111
Non-conf SOS: 197
vs. Top 50: 1-5
vs. Top 100: 6-9

Quality Wins: 1 (#4 Duke)
Bad Losses: 1 (#253 Auburn)
Best Non-Conf Win: #92 Baylor
Best Road win: #71 Miami

Anonymous said...

Oh byw Utah Valley lost so the Great West is some ----.

Anonymous said...

...let's talk about Butler now....


:)

Collin said...

UNLV up 2 under a minute versus San Diego State!!!!

Anonymous said...

Im saying FSU is a 9 seed.

Collin said...

San Diego State pulls it out :(

Anonymous said...

"seriously, get a life and get your own blog. nobody comes on here to get spammed by some dufus's bracket. the B101 guys are great and that's whose brackets we want to see."

I'd rather read someone elses bracket than some ass hole bitching about someone else.

Will said...

I bet FSU gets left out now...

Chase said...

March 12
The 1's - Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, Texas, North Carolina, San Diego State
The 3's - Florida, UConn, Syracuse, Louisville
The 4's - BYU, Purdue, Wisconsin, Kentucky
The 5's - Vanderbilt, WVU, St Johns, Arizona
The 6's - Kansas State, Xavier, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
The 7's - Georgetown, Temple, UNLV, Old Dominion*
The 8's - Villanova, George Mason, Utah State, Marquette
The 9's - Tennessee, Missouri, UCLA, Washington
The 10's - Florida State, Butler*, Richmond, Gonzaga
The 11's - Michigan State, Colorado, Michigan, Illinois
The 12's - Virginia Tech, Clemson, Saint Mary's, Penn State, Georgia, Memphis
The 13's - Belmont*, Harvard, Oakland*, Wofford*
The 14's - Bucknell*, Indiana State*, Long Beach State, Saint Peters*
The 15's - Morehead State*, Kent State, Long Island*, Northern Colorado*
The 16's - Boston U, UNC-Asheville*, McNese State, Arkansas Little Rock*, Hampton, Alabama State

Last 5 in: Virginia Tech, Clemson, Saint Mary's, Penn State, Georgia
Last 5 out: Alabama, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State, UAB

Interesting to see B101's.

Anonymous said...

SWAC final tommorrow is between Alabama St. (16-7 RPI:282) and Grambling State (12-20 RPI:322). I mean come on seriously??? This conference is absolutely pathetic and does not deserve an auto bid. Get these guys out of D1.

Anonymous said...

16-17* not 16-7

Anonymous said...

Chase BYU is not a four...

Chase said...

The 1 man team looked great tonight, I agree. Should have lost to TCU. New Mexico was awful tonight. I had BYU as a #1 a few weeks ago.. but this just isn't the same team. They're #13 on the S Curve. SDSU is #8 so while a 2 and a 4 is a big difference, it's 5 spots away. If BYU beats SDSU they're looking at a low 2/high 3.

Dustin said...

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Texas, North Carolina, BYU
3's: Florida, Syracuse, Purdue, Louisville
4's: San Diego State, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Kentucky
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Illinois, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson, Gonzaga
11's: Michigan State, Richmond, Washington, Colorado,
12's: (St. Mary’s vs Alabama), Butler, (Virginia Tech vs Georgia), UTEP
13's: Harvard, Belmont, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Kent St, Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St,
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, McNeese St, (UNC-Asheville vs Hampton), (Arkansas-Little Rock vs Alabama St)

AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Michigan State, Richmond, Washington, Colorado
LAST FOUR IN: St. Mary’s, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Georgia
FIRST FOUR OUT: Memphis, Penn State, UAB, Boston College
NEXT FOUR OUT: USC, VCU, New Mexico, Missouri State

Will said...

Richmond is 3-5 vs the top 100, 21-2 vs everyone else. THIS is the problem with mid-majors.

MichigIN said...

Georgia is 5-11 against the RPI Top 100 and 16-0 against everyone else.

Is that much better?

MichigIN said...

Lol

Florida State is not getting left out.

Anonymous said...

is penn state in or what i have heard different things!

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