Wednesday RecapHere are six things we learned from Wednesday's games:
1. All Big East Tournament games last 40 minutes, except when the referees are tired and just want to go home.
2. The Big East is going to get 11 bids, thanks to Marquette's win over West Virginia. The Golden Eagles are up to a 9 seed in today's bracket.
3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team.
4. Colorado is the last Big XII bubble team left standing. Baylor and Nebraska are done after losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively.
5. If the Buffs want to stay on the right side of the bubble, they probably need to beat Kansas State today - and they definitely need to play better than they did against Iowa State.
6. Long Island (from the Northeast) and Northern Colorado (from the Big Sky) are going dancing. Both are on the 15 line in today's bracket.
Thursday Preview
Today is shaping up to be the biggest day of Championship Week for about a dozen residents of Bubbleville. Just about every major conference has games going on that feature teams fighting for tourney bids.
We'll start in the ACC, where Boston College and Virginia Tech will look to avoid upsets that would surely ensure them of top seeds in the NIT. Both teams will need two wins this week to ensure that their name is called on Sunday, but both will first need to get by ACC bottom feeders Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.
The Big Ten conference tourney also gets started today and features Penn State and Michigan State both playing for their bubble lives. As long as the Spartans avoid an upset against Iowa, they should be safe. Penn State, meanwhile, will need to beat Indiana today and then take down Wisconsin tomorrow to get any serious consideration.
The SEC tourney kicks off today with Georgia looking to take care of Auburn, which would set up another bubble battle against Alabama for tomorrow. Tennessee also needs to take care of Arkansas (who already beat them earlier in the year) in order to avoid being talked about in the same breath as Virginia Tech's and Michigan State on the bubble.
A few weeks ago, it looked like there would be no bubble battles in the Pac-10 tourney. Since then, the bubble has gotten even softer and USC won five of six down the stretch to finish above .500 in conference. Washington State also picked up wins over Washington and USC to keep their name in the mix. USC faces off with Cal today (who can also climb onto the bubble with a win), and if the Trojans can pick up the win, they will be in decent shape for a bid. A win over Arizona on Friday would likely lock down their spot. If Washington State is able to take down Washington for the third time this season, that could create an interesting scenario and potentially put Washington in danger.
Elsewhere on the bubble, Colorado will attempt to take down Kansas State for the third time this season and, in the process, solidify their tourney bid. In the MWC, Colorado State faces off against New Mexico in what is an at-large elimination game. In C-USA action, UAB needs to avoid an upset at the hands of East Carolina to stay in the at-large mix. If they do that, we like their chances to go dancing. Memphis, meanwhile, opens up with Southern Miss. The Tigers will need a deep tourney run (probably a trip to the finals) to get at-lare worthy. Fans of bubble teams throughout the country need to root hard against UTEP this week. The Miners are playing the C-USA tourney on their home floor, where they went 16-2 this year, and are looking like the best bid-stealer candidate left out there.
Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In
Michigan State, Alabama, Boston College, Colorado
First Four Out
Virginia Tech, Clemson, USC, Missouri State
Next Four Out
Penn State, VCU, Colorado State, Washington State
---------------------------------------------------------------
Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2)
America East - Boston University
ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College
Atlantic Sun - Belmont
A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond
Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
Big South - UNC-Asheville
Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason
Conference USA - UTEP, UAB
Horizon - Butler
Ivy - Princeton
MAAC - St. Peter's
MAC - Kent State
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman
MVC - Indiana State
MWC - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Northeast - Long Island
Ohio Valley - Morehead State
Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
Southern - Wofford
Southland - McNeese State
Summit - Oakland
Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock
SWAC - Texas Southern
WAC - Utah State
WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue
The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas
The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John's, Kentucky
The 5s
Connecticut, Xavier, Arizona, Kansas State
The 6s
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, Texas A&M
The 7s
Georgetown, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion
The 8s
UNLV, Missouri, Utah State, George Mason
The 9s
Illinois, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette
The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington
The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, St. Mary's
The 12s
UAB, Michigan State vs. Alabama (FF), Boston College vs. Colorado (FF), UTEP
The 13s
Belmont, Princeton, Oakland, Kent State
The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford
The 15s
Morehead State, Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado
The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.
437 comments:
1 – 200 of 437 Newer› Newest»Lunardi has SIX Acc teams IN... Thoughts?
I'm just glad that Baylor got clobbered last night, so we can finally stop talking about them getting a bid. By the numbers, they were about as deserving as Northwestern.
I don't think six ACC teams is unreasonable from a "if the season were to end today" model. BC, Clemson, and Virginia Tech all seem like defensible picks for putting in or leaving out. From a projection standpoint, the BC/Clemson game looms large. Note that B101 has VT anc Clemson has their closest 2 that are currently out. If you were to add in VT anc Clemson, and take out Alabama and Colorado, then you could easily have 6 from the ACC. I don't think it will happen when all is said and done, though.
You guys have such an awesome job, this has to be the one gig where working overtime is FUN!
General question, do "good wins" or "bad losses" matter more when it comes down to seeding?
I think the ACC gets 5, ultimately. Duke, UNC, FSU, VT, and the winner of BC-Clemson
I'm still not convinced VT beats Georgia Tech today. Other than Colorado against K-State (let's be realistic, the Buffs defense sucks), I can't think of a more likely bubble upset today.
Now that Venoy Overton is out for Washington, I don't see how Wazzu isn't favored.
Keep in mind - Lunardi has one extra spot for an at-large vs. B101 due to B101's projection of UTEP winning the CUSA tournament. Lunardi only has UAB in from CUSA right now.
"3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team."
Agree w/ re: Villanova.
Question though: How does that impact Tennessee? The 'Nova win was counted as one of their big resume-building wins, and now it is not looking so good. Does the Committee say "Nova was playing very well during the time that Tenn beat them, so still very solid win" or does that win lose its luster now that Nova is a possible double-digit seed?
Tenn is likely in no matter what happens in SEC tourney, but now they really only have the Pitt win as a big OOC (Nova and Belmont only other wins over current tourney teams -- VCU, MO St, Memphis all looking like NITs at the moment), to go against 5 OOC losses (3 to non-tourney teams), a .500 record in a down SEC and a total of 14 losses if they do not win SEC Tourney Championship.
Thoughts? Is Tenn as safe as it seems?
I think if Tennessee loses today, they'll be sweating it out on Sunday.
@Will / JGibson:
Keep in mind also that Lunardi has yet to use his "call a friend" lifeline.
@AG -- Agreed. GT has a solid chance at pulling the upset. I think that is the bubble game to watch.
I actually would like the idea of George Mason being a #10...it would keep them away from a potential game against a #1. I think the #2's look a lot more beatable than in years past
Beatable? yes. By George Mason? No.
@DavidATL - that is a good point. It would actually be helpful if he had that prior to the last second. Then, we'd actually know for sure who was getting in. Instead, he's capable of bumping Missouri State from in to the next four out, and getting Arkansas from out of nowhere into the field.
I agree with the notion that George Mason is better off as a 10 vice a 8 or 9. Hoping ODU is a 7 for the same reason.
I think many of these "power" conference teams on the bubble will continue to do what they've doing... play themselves out of the Big Dance. Hence, I believe VCU will get much more consideration by the committee than anyone commmenting on this blog believes.
OK B101
I need highest seed lowest seed for
St. Johns(3 high? 5 low?)
and
florida(2 high? 3 low?)
Chances of Missouri State getting an At-Large?
If neither USC or WSU reaches the conference final then neither are making the tourney?
Would this in turn lock up a spot for Washington?
Will it matter to the committee that the Huskies are likely playing without 2 of their best 6 players (Overton and Holliday)?
Probably 3 and 5 for florida... Not too many good win opportunities in the SEC tourney, at least not enough to jump up to a 2.
Why does X check in at 5 and UC at 6?
Bearcats dominate the Muskees in seemingly every resume characteristic...not to mention the Crosstown shootout which was extremely one sided.
Someone please try to clarify.
Agree, I cannot figure out why xavier is getting a 5 seed in most brackets (beating up on A10 teams doesnt merit a 5 seed).
I would have to check, but I am not sure they even have a top 25 RPI win. I think xavier's best wins are butler, temple, and richmond. Also have loses to Miami OH and Charlotte.
What does St. John's have to do during the rest of the week to NOT get shipped to Tucson? That would just be unfortunate.
Hey b101 love the blog but didn't you say last week the loser of the Washington state USC game (USC) would have to win the PAC 10 tourney? Now they might only need to beat cal? Thanks
I know it depends on what happens in the rest of the bubble. But if shorthanded Washington loses to Washington State are they now in the First Four territory or worse (out of the tournament)?
Tennessee would probably sneak in even with a loss today, but we wouldn't recommend trying it.
St. John's ceiling is a 3; their floor is a 5. Florida's ceiling (if a couple things break right) is a 2; their floor is a 4. The Gators are most likely a 3 on Sunday.
Xavier also won at Georgia. Their wins, plus a very impressive 15-1 A-10 record, has them in position for a 5/6 seed.
We don't like Missouri State's chances at an at-large at all.
A lot has changed since we made those Pac-10 comments. There has been a dearth of bid-stealers and a handful of bubbe teams have eliminated themselves from contention.
Washington would be an 11 or 12 seed with a loss to Wazzu today, and depending on what else happens the rest of the weekend, they could be in a First First game.
If any Big East team is getting shipped out to Tuscon, its Nova.
I still don't understand why the committee can't find more major cities out west to host tournament games. I mean, its one thing to ship a team out west but how many flights can they possibly have to places like Tuscon, Boise, and Spokane?
Penn State will crush Indiana tonight.
"Penn State will crush Indiana tonight."
Wow, that's big.
I agree for the moment that Missouri State's not in the field, but with no less than 15 bubble games to watch today, Bears fans have lots of teams to root against... Colorado, Boston College, Michigan State, Memphis, Georgia, UTEP, Colorado State, Tennessee, and Virginia Tech all play today.
Should something like 6 out of those 9 teams lose today, the Bears could be back in business.
I am just excited for Penn State. It is like a home game for Indiana.
Mike, you're right. I don't think it will matter much though.
I already have Washington on Last Four-in duties. If they lose today, I will most likely have them out.
Penn State can't play like Colorado though and look bad while they win.
How can everyone be blind on TAM?
This is a very average team that should def be a 8/9 seed..
They cannot score, they have 0 great wins, they lost to baylor twice.
They have wins over 2 currently ranked teams..
I would bet after they lose today the committee will make them 8 seed.
Texas A&M alum... and I would agree that A&M has a bland resume and has not done anything special. I think they are an 8 or 9 at best even before they start B12 tourney play.
Missouri has a balnd resume too. Very bland.
Just got the Won't thing... Clever.
i agree mizzu has an equal resume...which is why they are a 8/9 seed...
A&M has fewer losses though.
Also, I didn't look but surely A&M has a better road win than Oregon.
Texas A&M...
Best road wins: OKST & COLO
Worst losses: Baylor x2
OOC SOS: 213 (ugly)
Won't, I'm assuming you meant Missouri since a&m didn't play Oregon. Missouri's only road wins are Oregon and Iowa State. A&M at least won at Oklahoma State and Colorado.
Texas A&M is a 6 or 7. They have wins over Temple, Washington, Missouri and Kansas State, with their best road win over Colorado.
Missouri has better good wins (Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, Illinois on the neutral court, Kansas State, and Colorado), but their best road win is Iowa State.
The winner of their tournament matchup probably decides who finishes in front of who in the committtees eyes.
Yes, that's what I meant.
If this were an actual bracket, it would put Kansas and UNLV in the same pod for the 3rd time in 4 years. Out of curiosity, does the committee consider this?
I am still failing to see how georgetown gets a seven seed. They are currently 12 in the RPI and Wright is practicing. They were top 5 RPI with him. They wouldve been foolish to play him in the BET but will that ultimately hurt them. Should they send a tape of him practicing to prove it. If the committee has really thrown out the last 10 rule and is looking at the body of work no way they can be a 7. I also really dont think they would pair them with UNC who Im sure they want to see make a run and gtown would potentially be the best 7 seed ever.
Georgetown is more like a 5 to be hoenst.
I don't think Georgetown will be a 7 since teams like Xavier clearly should not be seeded higher.
AG, Next year Albuquerque and Portland will be the Western early round hosts, then it's San Jose and Salt Lake City in 2013. Denver, Seattle, Sacramento, San Diego, Oakland and Fresno(why hasn't the NCAA considered the city yet?) are also available to host too. Cities like Phoenix, Anaheim and LA prefer to host regionals.
@ AG 11:17
The NCAA can't just select Western cities to host, they need schools willing to undertake the hosting duties too. Boise and Wazzu have proven themselves to be good hosts so they will continue to get games on the first weekend. There just aren't enough large cities out west with willing hosts I guess.
In 2012 the western regional site is Phoenix with 1st/2nd round games in Albuquerque and Portland. In 2013 the Regional is in LA with Salt Lake City and San Jose as 1st/2nd round sites.
Okie State definitely out, even with a win here?
Any chance Ok State gets close to an at large with a win versus Kansas? Wins over K-State and Missouri, though not much else to crow about.
Ku, KSU, and Mizzou is better than anything U of M has...
"The NCAA can't just select Western cities to host, they need schools willing to undertake the hosting duties too."
Why not? This isn't high school basketball. What does the NCAA need a "hosting school" for? It's not like the players are being hosted in private homes. The NCAA needs an arena with open dates, enough hotel rooms to accommodate a full stadium of people and sufficient flights. Picking crappy "cities" (more like big towns) with horrible airfare options is doing a disservice to the teams that have to travel to them.
If KU loses this game, just give their #1 seed to ND (with a win over Cinci, of course).
Oklahoma State making things interesting in Kansas City.
Kansas is a 1 seed even if they lose today. Might mean the difference between San Antonio and Anaheim though.
Ok State is NIT bound with a win. 6-10 in conference, losses to Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Only 1 away win at LaSalle.
Even with wins over Kansas St, Mizzou, and Bama their profile is light years from an at-large.
Will might disagree since elite wins are all that matters to him, but the committee wouldn't consider them.
And we're probably getting ahead of ourselves. A 6 point halftime lead isn't much against Kansas. I don't know that Ok. St. has the horses to go a second half and run with the Jayhawks.
UAB down 10 to ECU right now. Out with a loss.
This Big East game is so good! Now tied at 65!
Which Big East teams do you think goes the farthest? My money is on Notre Dame.
UAB quickly narrowing that lead. They will win the game, I think.
Also Oakland vs. St. John's is an intriguing first round matchup. That would be my pick for upset right now.
Oh ad Bill Self and Kansas hopefully lose today!
All about the matchups. Notre Dame probably doesn't get to the Elite 8.
I love this UConn team. I think if they get a good draw as a 4 seed.. you'll see them in the elite 8. They'll run you to death - huge matchup problem.
Can't see Louisville/Cincy/Cuse/Georgetown getting too far. St Johns/UConn/Pitt would be my guess.
Last night ESPN advertised that Lunardi picked "64 of 65" teams in last year's bracket.
What a stupid and meaningless plug. Giving him credit for "successfully" picking automatic bids and ranked competitors... He is some sort of talented!!
Only successfully picking the last 4 is worthy of credit, everything else is about seeding.
Depending on the bracket and matchups, I've said all year that UCONN will go the furthest from the Big East. They have the big men that create second chance points and a prolific scorer, which are the two biggest things you need to make a deep run in the tournament.
This projected bracket shows a possible sweet 16 matchup of uconn and notre dame. That will be a game. No love for syracuse? They always make noise and certainly will this year. I think St. John's is too new to the game too far. They may even lose first round. Nova on the 10 line could take care of a 7...I hope.
Oh, and how many overtimes is UConn gonna need this year in the BET!? No wonder Calhoun has health problems!
I think Syracuse is looking at an early exit. Depending on the bracket, they could lose their first game. I love their resume, but I dont love their team this year.
That was beautiful. Go Walker.
so if ND wins the BE and Duke goes to the ACC finals, could pitt get bumped to a 2 seed?
And the last minute of the UCONN game is exactly why I think they'll go the furthest. Walker missed the first game winning shot, but they got the huge offensive rebound, and you just cant give a player like Kemba Walker extra opportunites to hurt you.
Holy cow!!!!!!!!!!! What a shot!!! Calhoun's heart survives again!
Don't worry, Duke will lose to North Carolina again in the ACC Tourney and keep Pitt on the 1 line. Now if Kansas could just lose!
Syracuse should take care of St. John's today. Also I think Villanova is lucky to be on the 10 line. That would give them a not so tough first game and and if they hit BYU that lost Davies, who knows.
Guards win in the NCAA's - can't beat Kemba right now. He'll break you down and create shots.
A little note on Syracuse: I believe since 1990 they've only gotten past the sweet 16 twice. That's a crazy statistic. The two times it happened the won the national title and lost in the national title.
Kemba shot 8-22...he shoot a ton of bad shots...
If he moved ball more UCONN would be much better off
UAB takes the lead.
Pitt is still a one. I don't think they'll put Duke ahead of Pitt, not when Pitt won the hardest league and Duke couldn't even win the ACC. It's not like losing to UConn on a last second shot is a bad loss either. ND could move ahead of Pitt, but they still have to win the tournament.
"A little note on Syracuse: I believe since 1990 they've only gotten past the sweet 16 twice. That's a crazy statistic. The two times it happened the won the national title and lost in the national title."
why is that a crazy stat? it's not easy to be one of 8 remaining teams. there are a lot of good teams with the same stat (eg, georgetown and st johns).
Walker scored 24 points on 22 shots, and added 5 assists. He's not a Lacedarius Dunn.
"not when Pitt won the hardest league and Duke couldn't even win the ACC."
the ACC doesn't recognize a regular season champion. with unbalanced schedules finishing within 1 game of a team you split with isn't very significant. a lack of top 25 or 30 or whatever metric you want to use is much more significant.
@ bracket--even if Pitt does fall to a 2 seed will they still be placed in Cleveland?
Final four picks:
Ohio St, Notre Dame, UConn, Syracuse
Ohio St. takes it all.
What an airball from Kansas! You can do it pokes!
B101, is Alabama Georgia winner tommorow IN? Is the loser OUT?
Ok st goodbye from the bubble go join Baylor and nebraska. Colorado is in.
Bummer for Oklahoma State...Kansas wins 63-62.
Georgetown is a difficult team to seed given the Wright injury. We can see them going anywhere from a 5-7. The Big East tourney is making the conference harder to seed in general.
I just can't see Georgia missing the NCAA Tournament.
The winner of Alabama and Georgia is in and the loser will sweat it out on Sunday ('Bama probably needs the win more).
Pitt is still a 1. Regardless of their seed they are going to Cleveland.
Thanks Bracket101 appreciate it!
I understand leaving Garyland off of your discussion about the ACC Tournament...but don't forget once they get passed NC State; somehow manage to topple Duke....they are suddenly dangerous. NC Flake better double/triple Jordan if they want to have a chance...even then I see Stoglin lighting it up tonight.
Especially if UNC chokes somewhere before the final.
Gilchrist did the same thing for Garyland when they were virtually in the same position. Fear the Turtle.
Man I hate Kansas! Oh, well.
Am I the only one who thinks St. John's will lose early? Villanova and Georgetown will probably lose opening round. Pitt, ND, Uconn, Syracuse are locks for win in my opinion. I am guessing that at least 4 Big East teams lost opening round if not higher.
D.J. Kennedy hurt for ST. John's now. That hurts a lot.
Only twice the whole year did Dunn shoot 22 times or more...he scored 29 and 43 points...kemba is a shot taker...and a very average shot maker.
a few of kemba performances!
8-22
8-23
8-27
7-23
He takes forced shots..not open ones..
And now back to reality...
models his game after Kobe
6-27
Uh oh... UAB starting to feel a little tightness around the neck/throat area.
Kemba Walker also penetrates and has a lot of his misses rebounded because he forces help D his way, not to mention he gets to the foul line putting a strain on the opposing teams minutes.
UAB out with a loss?
When kemba shoots over 20 times
uconn is 4-6...explain how him shooting that much is good?
Kemba had a bad game shooting, but he drew a lot of important fouls, and hit the game winner. The whole team wanted the ball in his hands for the final shot. that says a lot.
He shoots 43% from the floor and 35% from 3 point range...
He averages 4.3 assists a game, and only 2 turnovers.
We would not be talking about Connecticut right now if it weren't for Kemba.
Stats without explanation isnt going to get you much.
When UCONN is already losing he starts shooting more to bring them back into the game. You can use similar stats against almost any great player ever.
Because when UConn is down, the entire team puts the ball in Kemba's hands because he's the one they trust. It results in him getting more shots. Those losses were ALL to tournament teams. In 6 of those games where he had more than 20 shots, he had 40 OR MORE minutes.
Our first TRUE bubble team : UAB if they lose this. Will be One of the last ones in or first ones out
UVA was up 10 with 43 seconds left and lost the game? Haven't seen a chokejob that bad since David Carradine.
BYU 13-2 when jimmer shoots over 20 times
Duke 6-0 when n smith takes 20 or more
2 of the other POY candidates..
hmmmmmmm
If Michigan St. gets in as last 4 in, wouldn't it be funny if they go to the Final 4 the third year in a row? From Last 4 to Final Four, I hear Disney calling for the rights already!
19. That many Big East teams in the tourney in the last 2 years and none of them will have won the title.
Can anyone beat Ohio St.? Probably not.
No ACC team will make the Final Four. Probably not the Elite either. Duke doesn't have it and UNC is too young.
You're right, nobody can beat Ohio St. If watching the tournament over 25 years has taught me anything, it's that nobody can get upset and one team always establishes themselves before the tournament as unbeatable.
UAB probably reduced to a 50/50 shot on Sunday if they lose?
Can't see UAB getting in with a loss. Down 3 with 27 seconds left.
Again, stats without explanation. If Nolan Smith is taking 20 shots in a game, its because he's having a tremendous game. If he's off, they have other players who can pick up the slack, which is something Connecticut can't afford.
Jimmer is a different story entirely because the competition they face is vastly different.
I always believed UAB losing in the C-USA tournament was the lockiest lock I've ever locked, mainly because they were swept by Memphis and they're coached by Mike Davis. Its the major reason I thought C-USA was a 2-bid league. But I didn't think they'd lose their first game! Does this mean C-USA is a 1-bid league or is the league still looking good for 2?
UAB forces the extra period. There maybe hope for the Blazers after all.
UAB heard AG and gave him the Lee Corso special. Overtime.
Wow, ECU couldn't close that out. Well, UAB should come back storming in OT.
Overtime in UAB game, not dead yet!!
UAB would be 5050 or essentially fliP a coin with a loss. Our first true bubble team of 2011.sweating it out Sunday with a loss
Looks like overtime will decide UAB's fate.
OT for UAB-ECU.
Only way CUSA gets 2 bids is if UTEP wins the tournament in the finals against Memphis or UAB.
Memphis/UAB cancel them each other out because it's basically an elimination game. And UTEP getting to the finals isn't enough. UTEP over Memphis would probably be the most ideal situation for CUSA.
If UAB loses this game to ECU, they have a lot less than a 50/50 chance to make it.
A UAB lose would make things very interesting for C-USA and the best thing for the Blazers chances would be for Memphis to win the conference tourney.
On Kemba - He shot 43% for the year, but how'd he do once conference season started? 39%. And if you remove the bottom 5 in the big east, he falls to 36%. He shoots a ton and plays like Kobe. Sure, he's got a ton of talent and can burn you but let's be real here.
Bubble teams need to pull hard for UAB though.
If ECU beats UAB, the I wonder if the recent Memphis loss to ECU on the road will count as a "quality loss" (snicker)?
"Bubble teams need to pull hard for UAB though."
Why is this?
Down 5, just turned the ball over. Yeah, UAB is in BIG trouble.
Comparing Kemba to Kobe and trying to use it as a negative is all I need to know about your arguements.
@Michael
If UAB wins the tournament, it makes Con-USA a 1-bid league, however it's my opinion that if UAB loses this they are out so bubble teams probably dont mind what happens here either way.
yeah I think a loss here dooms UAB so its a wash
Ya, except Kobe hits significantly more shots than Kemba does. He's a hell of a player, don't get me wrong, I just think they'd be way better off if he spent more time facilitating and less time jacking up contested pull up Js.
UAB still has a good resume. They are not out. They are on the bubble. 50/50 chance.
How many times does Kemba take contested shots early in the shot clock? Almost never. If it happens, its with the clock winding down already. Compare this to someone like Lacedarius Dunn who will shoot over 2 people with 31 seconds still on the clock.
Kemba Walker plays within his system, and he's going to be a major reason UCONN goes deep into the tournament.
Down 7 with 46.5 left - UAB needs ECU to pull a Virginia.
Over the years the selection tends reward regular season champs of top ten RPI conferences. Missouri State is hurt because the MVC didn't have a great. C-USA is still a top ten league.
I could see a handful of mid-majors making over 13 and 14 loss power conferences teams.
Acting like nova is on the bubble lolll
UABs resume is decent because of good computer numbers, but nothing spectacular when you start going over their wins. They're down 7 with 40 seconds left, an I think they're looking at a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT now.
Sorry no 50/50% chance here for UAB. Lost to Memphis twice. Best win is either VCU, Arkansas or UTEP. Really?
2 Top 50 wins - you know who they are? Tulsa twice. Tulsa? Cmon.
UAB is finished. Hello, bubble.
UAB is 1-3 against teams 2-4 in the CUSA. Not impressive when you add that to there only good NC result being a home win over VCU.
Sorry, Marshall.. not Tulsa. They lost to Tulsa. Heh.
I don't see how they can reward regular season champs of Top 10 RPI Conferences when the NCAA doesn't compile RPI's by conference anymore.
Also, the selection committee only has a breakdown of records vs. RPI Top 50 and Top 100, not Top 25. They could calculate them manually but who has the time?
Also, if TCU somehow holds on to beat BYU, what does that do to the New Mexico/Colorado State winner? Would that hurt them since they wouldn't have a crack at BYU and their only other chance for a quality win would be to beat SDSU in the final and win the automatic bid?
How can any team without an NBA logo lost 10 of their last 15 and get into the tournament?
UAB is an interesting case. They won C-USA and have a very good RPI. On the other hand, their best wins are VCU, UTEP, Marshall twice, and Southern Miss. VCU and UTEP are barely bubble teams. They also lost to Arizona St, and now have lost to ECU. Is their resume really all that different from Harvard's?
HEy b101
Kstate
Ceiling/floor
@AG - would hurt both, but if TCU beat's BYU, maybe it shouldn't have counted as a good win anyways!
UNM and CSU probably aren't getting at-larges anyway, so at least BYU losing clears their path to the finals and makes it much easier to get the automatic.
BYU won't lose. And it wouldn't hurt CSU/New Mexico unless they lost to TCU.
UAB isn't getting in.. looked at that profile for 5 minutes. Best wins are: at Southern Miss, at Marshall and VCU?
They have bad losses. And just lost to a bad team in the conference tournament. Lunardi sucks.
Interesting score in the MAC: Miami (Oh) getting absolutely drubbed. They were the 2 seed in that tournament and are probably the best team. 10 points at half. Meh.
Mr. K,
Would you say Uconns ceiling is a 2 seed? and their floor is a 4 now with them beating PITT?
UAB is a tough call now and will either be one of the last 4 in or out. UAB needs to pull for Memphis to win the conference tourney now (or lose today).
Kansas State could go anywhere from a 4 to a 7.
Tough call whether or not CSU or UNM should pull for BYU. A final appearance may end up being enough for either of them. If we were a fan of either team we would root against BYU just since it gives my team the best chance to win the auto bid then.
Sound right Jetsfootball
UAB is in pretty close to the same place as Utah St and UTEP last year. Regular season winner, high RPI (grumble), no great wins. Both those teams were given spots.
My guess is UAB is in a play-in game versus a power conference team. People will grumble about how they haven't beaten anyone and yell about the ridiculousness of the RPI. Rinse and repeat.
I think UAB stays in. Think Air Force '04. Only real credential was a regular season conference championship of a top 10 conference.
I realize now that I am stupid and possibly gay. Michigan is a legit touney team.
Reg season champ of top ten rip conference is a solld thing to bet on, UAB is in.
You guys might be right about UAB, but I think they are last 4 in material right now.
BC laying the wood to Wake - Clemson might be in trouble.
I still think the loser of the Clemson/BC game is NIT bound.
@AG - They may not have time to calculate the top 25, but I believe when it gets to the last few, they really look at the entire schedule, including the names, and not just the #s. By then, a win over Marquette would be good and a win over Missouri State would be diminished despite Marquette not being top 50 and Missouri State being top 50.
New Mexico, if they beat Colorado State must be salivating at getting this BYU team who looks dreadful.
What happened to kennedy?
Kennedy banged his knee first half.
UNLV at an 8 seed is ridiculous. They are 6 or 7 for sure. 5 when they take the MWC championship on Saturday.
Will said...
I realize now that I am stupid and possibly gay. Michigan is a legit touney team.
This is the front runner for comment of the year!!
I'm contused at Will's statement. I'm assuming sarcasm.
I assume that wasn't Will, just someone posting using the same name.
As far as commenters go, Will's a 1 seed.
1) I need an explanation as to why Colorado is in the field over USC and V-Tech. Does K-State really carry that much weight?
2) I know these arguments are pointless, but I'll bite. I'm curious who decided the Big East was far and away the best conference this year? The Pomeroy ratings certainly don't support it. Yet, "Big East OMG" seems to be gospel. Thoughts?
bubble teams rejoice at the defeat of UAB, time to root for Iowa! Lets go Iowa, knock msu out!
Although the average Pomeroy ratings don't support the Big East as the best (and his is one of the few computers that don't have them on top), if you looked at it a different way - how many teams are in the Pomeroy top 40? - the Big East comes off as best by far in the Pomeroy ratings, too.
Colorado won't need any more support if their 6 point lead holds.
USC has far, far worse losses than Colorado (and one more of them) without having loads better wins.
VT just doesn't have solid wins (and still has a lot of losses) outside of Duke.
I see Colorado above both VT and USC. With a win today they are in, I think.
Colorado gets in because they have 4 top 20 wins, 6 top 50 wins.
JGibson, the Big East isn't #1 with KenPom because South Florida and Depaul are so bad.
Depaul is 202 and South Florida is 129 while the worst team in the Big 10 (Iowa) is 82. Providence, 89 is also worse.
The Big East is #1 as rated in the RPI and Sagarin. The main reason they're #2 in Pomeroy is because South Florida and especially, DePaul, are much worse than Iowa and Indiana. Those 2 teams really drag the conference's average down. If you just threw DePaul out (which I realize isn't fair), the Big East would be #1.
If you used a different measure of the middle of the conference than the mean, say median or Sagarin's weighted average, the BE would be #1 in Pomeroy too.
Did Syracuse lock up a 3 seed, or could they still slip to a 4?
B101: "Will said...
I realize now that I am stupid and possibly gay. Michigan is a legit touney team.
This is the front runner for comment of the year!!"
I don't know, his Moe quote from The Simpsons the other day was just so perfectly placed. I'd still have to go with that.
"As far as commenters go, Will's a 1 seed."
And THE number one of the number one seeds!
Congrats Will, you're the OSU of the commentors!
@Will: " realize now that I am stupid and possibly gay. Michigan is a legit touney team."
Do you like fishsticks?? ;)
WoW Miami OH scored 10 points in the first half then come back and put up 53 in the second half to force overtime.
And I was the one that posted the Will comment, he is so damn annoying.
Colorado = lock now with a 3-game sweep of Kansas State?
Colorado solidifies itself in the tournament with this win. A triple beat down of a ranked team, wins over Texas and Mizzou and 21 wins with only two bad losses.
Collin is Will, Will is Collin. Thus this post is upside down.
Also, anybody not having Colorado in the field as of today is a fraud.
B101
Colorado a lock now?
Also will not having fontain for there first 10 games(4 bad losses)be looked at by the committee for USC?
One more win for USC and they are knocking on the door seriously. They still have a bevy of horrid losses so I think they are still on the outside looking in.
Jeez, Memphis let Southern Miss back into it.
Colorado's in. Book it.
@Anon
If they look favorably on Fontan being absent then they need to take away the Texas win during that stretch, too. Texas is, far and away, their premier win, so I'm not sure if that's a bonus.
And even with Fontan, they lost to Oregon (2x) and Oregon State. 3 more bad losses.
I honestly believe another win is necessary for them to be considered strongly.
Michigan State doing its best to ensure it gets a number 1 seed.
The outright regular season title obviously complicates things, but UAB was 2-4 against Memphis, UTEP, Tulsa, and Southern Miss. Not good.
There has been a lot made about UAB winning the CUSA regular title. Two things about that:
1) The committee has said time and time again that they don't care about conference affiliation, so that carries little weight. Those Nitty Gritty reports won't show that they won their conference. Instead, it will say that their RPI is 30, they're 1-4 vs the Top 50, etc.
2) And even if the regular season title was taken into account, B101's point that they're 2-4 against the rest of the CUSA's good teams won't really help.
After Iowa ruined Purdue's shot at a 1 seed, looking to send Mich St to the NIT. 2 point MSU lead at the half.
@ Eric
2) Well Mich is 0-6 against their conferences good teams and they seem to get tonz of love on this board.
It's way too early, but if Oregon State were to somehow beat Arizona, then would USC probably need to win the Pac-10 tournament for a bid? A win over Cal and Arizona would be better, obviously, than a win over Cal and Oregon State.
Bracketology 101 said...
As far as commenters go, Will's a 1 seed.
___________________________
I vote this one as comment of the year...!
The committee can say they don't look at conferences all they want, but their selections say otherwise. They also have previously (granted this was the mid-90s) specifically stated that regular season conference champions get a boost.
Air Force '04 (in) and Missouri State '06 (out) are just two examples of them almost having to use conference affiliation.
B101- Does K state fall behind Georgetown now? They must right.
"Well Mich is 0-6 against their conferences good teams and they seem to get tonz of love on this board."
Ohio St, Wisconsin and Purdue are just a little better than UTEP, Memphis and So Miss
0-6 is 0-6 my friend.
Is anyone watching the MSU vs. Iowa game??
EYEBALL TEST... win or lose, MSU does not have the look of a tournament team.
I'd put some quality mid-majors (Missouri St, VCU) in the tourney over MSU.
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