Thursday, March 10, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 10

Wednesday Recap
Here are six things we learned from Wednesday's games:

1. All Big East Tournament games last 40 minutes, except when the referees are tired and just want to go home.

2. The Big East is going to get 11 bids, thanks to Marquette's win over West Virginia. The Golden Eagles are up to a 9 seed in today's bracket.

3. There's a very good chance that Villanova ends up the lowest seeded Big East team.

4. Colorado is the last Big XII bubble team left standing. Baylor and Nebraska are done after losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, respectively.

5. If the Buffs want to stay on the right side of the bubble, they probably need to beat Kansas State today - and they definitely need to play better than they did against Iowa State.

6. Long Island (from the Northeast) and Northern Colorado (from the Big Sky) are going dancing. Both are on the 15 line in today's bracket.

Thursday Preview
Today is shaping up to be the biggest day of Championship Week for about a dozen residents of Bubbleville. Just about every major conference has games going on that feature teams fighting for tourney bids.

We'll start in the ACC, where Boston College and Virginia Tech will look to avoid upsets that would surely ensure them of top seeds in the NIT. Both teams will need two wins this week to ensure that their name is called on Sunday, but both will first need to get by ACC bottom feeders Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

The Big Ten conference tourney also gets started today and features Penn State and Michigan State both playing for their bubble lives. As long as the Spartans avoid an upset against Iowa, they should be safe. Penn State, meanwhile, will need to beat Indiana today and then take down Wisconsin tomorrow to get any serious consideration.

The SEC tourney kicks off today with Georgia looking to take care of Auburn, which would set up another bubble battle against Alabama for tomorrow. Tennessee also needs to take care of Arkansas (who already beat them earlier in the year) in order to avoid being talked about in the same breath as Virginia Tech's and Michigan State on the bubble.

A few weeks ago, it looked like there would be no bubble battles in the Pac-10 tourney. Since then, the bubble has gotten even softer and USC won five of six down the stretch to finish above .500 in conference. Washington State also picked up wins over Washington and USC to keep their name in the mix. USC faces off with Cal today (who can also climb onto the bubble with a win), and if the Trojans can pick up the win, they will be in decent shape for a bid. A win over Arizona on Friday would likely lock down their spot. If Washington State is able to take down Washington for the third time this season, that could create an interesting scenario and potentially put Washington in danger.

Elsewhere on the bubble, Colorado will attempt to take down Kansas State for the third time this season and, in the process, solidify their tourney bid. In the MWC, Colorado State faces off against New Mexico in what is an at-large elimination game. In C-USA action, UAB needs to avoid an upset at the hands of East Carolina to stay in the at-large mix. If they do that, we like their chances to go dancing. Memphis, meanwhile, opens up with Southern Miss. The Tigers will need a deep tourney run (probably a trip to the finals) to get at-lare worthy. Fans of bubble teams throughout the country need to root hard against UTEP this week. The Miners are playing the C-USA tourney on their home floor, where they went 16-2 this year, and are looking like the best bid-stealer candidate left out there.

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

Michigan State, Alabama, Boston College, Colorado

First Four Out
Virginia Tech, Clemson, USC, Missouri State

Next Four Out
Penn State, VCU, Colorado State, Washington State


Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), Conference USA (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Louisville, St. John's, Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP, UAB

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Bethune-Cookman

MVC - Indiana State

- BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Texas Southern

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's


The Seeds
The 1s

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, Syracuse, Purdue

The 3s
North Carolina, San Diego State, Florida, Texas

The 4s
Louisville, Wisconsin, St. John's, Kentucky

The 5s
Connecticut, Xavier, Arizona, Kansas State

The 6s
West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, Texas A&M

The 7s
Georgetown, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion

The 8s
UNLV, Missouri, Utah State, George Mason

The 9s
Illinois, Florida State, Tennessee, Marquette

The 10s
Villanova, Gonzaga, Butler, Washington

The 11s
Richmond, Michigan, Georgia, St. Mary's

The 12s
UAB, Michigan State vs. Alabama (FF), Boston College vs. Colorado (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State,
Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, McNeese State vs. Texas Southern (FF), Bethune-Cookman vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)

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Blind Resume said...

It's the job of blind resume to remove your bias and look at facts. As we all know, facts can be used to prove things even remotely true.

give me the brandy said...

If Michigan wins tomorrow they should be the number one overall seed.

If they lose they shouldn't even make the NIT and their basketball program should be disbanded.

Eric said...

I hate Blind Resume's game too. It takes things too simply with sort of arbitrary cutoffs. HOWEVER, the NCAA will be using these cutoffs, so I guess we should consider that. AND, as much as I loathe RPI (go KenPom!), it's hugely used in the selection room. (Read Andy Glockner's SI article, he said that RPI is plastered everywhere on their screens).

I'll bite and pick Team B for SOS. But, I'd really weigh WHO those top wins were against. Princeton is a top 50 win, so is Duke, so is Villanova, so is Pitt. They aren't equal wins.

Blind Resume said...

Blind Resume thanks Eric for playing and agrees with "go KenPom".

Dustin said...

Seriously, I'm DONE with Washington if they lose this game. They dont have a single OOC win that even sniffs the realm of good. They have losses to Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, and if they lose here, THREE losses to WSU.

Trent said...

MSU should not move ahead of Michigan by beating an 11-20 Iowa team Tom. That makes no sense whatsoever. If you had MSU behind Michigan before it, I can't imagine why in the world you could possibly move the Spartans up for beating a 20-loss team. MSU stays where it was, Michigan stays where it was going into tomorrow. Playing Iowa is basically like playing the bye and should be treated as such.

Dashawn said...

Georgetown back on the 5-6 line is the word...hard to argue with their numbers but Chris Wright must be back to get that type of seeding.

Blind Resume said...

It's time for my favorite game... blind resume! (Both teams are major conference bubbly)

Team A:
vs 300-345 (7-0)
vs 200-299 (1-0)
vs 100-199 (2-2)
vs 50-99 (5-4)
vs 1-49 (6-6)
Overall SOS: (63) Non-conf: (324)

Team B:
vs 300-345 (0-0)
vs 200-299 (2-0)
vs 100-199 (7-4)
vs 50-99 (5-3)
vs 1-49 (5-6)
Overall SOS: (24) Non-Conf: (54)

*Update: Both Team A and B have (1) top 10 win over the same team.

Who would you choose?

Dustin said...

I've been updating my seeds, and Georgetown is a 5 by default. Almost every team around them either lost to a bad team or got smothered by a good one.

Eric said...

Can we create a new thread just entitled "People Bitching About Michigan" instead of cluttering this one? I'd prefer to debate the merits of BC/V-Tech/Clemson or USC or Alabama/Georgia. Anything really. Just no more Michigan until they actually play a game!

(Yes, I realize that I just dedicated a post to Michigan...sort of defeated the purpose).

Trent said...


What would you like to discuss? BC and Clemson play each other, as do Georgia and Alabama, so those are pretty self-explanatory. USC is likely in with a win over Arizona and out with a loss. As for Va. Tech, you could probably say the same.

Blind Resume said...

For those interested...
Team A: Colorado
Team B: USC

Dan said...

@Eric - Nice work. VT vs BC/Clemson I suppose would be useful, but 4 of those teams play each other tomorrow. Basically all of these debates need to wait a day or two.

@Blind - I know the committee doesn't get it, but can you give us vs Top 25 and any important home/road info?

Harry Baals said...

B101, any chance that the committee gives Utah Valley a bid if they win the Great West tournament? They have 11 conference wins and they won at Oregon State. I think they can beat UNC Asheville on a nuetral court. Any chance they play for the rights to face Ohio State (who Utah Valley matches up well against?

Chase said...

The Great West is a terrible league. Don't deserve a bid.

Trent said...

Did someone just say that Utah Valley State matches up well with Ohio State? That's awesome.

Anonymous said...

Huskies secure bid, Wazzu done. Nice development for the bubble.

Eric said...

I for one am interested in the case for Saint Mary's. Everybody is pretty much assuring us all that they're near a lock, but I fear a case of groupthink. (Though, you could argue that groupthink will help them get in, because the committee could already be convinced that they're a tournament team).

Their profile isn't as solid as some of the other locks with only a few even debatably good wins: a St. John's win at home the 2nd game and a Gonzaga win in Spokane (a team they went 1-2 against). Even though their win total is gaudy (24), they have some bad losses to Portland and San Diego (blech).

Dustin said...

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Purdue, Texas, North Carolina
3's: BYU, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Connecticut, Kentucky
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Illinois
9's: Florida State, George Mason, Villanova, UCLA
10's: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Clemson
11's: Richmond, Georgia, Colorado, St. Mary’s
12's: (Michigan State vs Washington), (Alabama vs Boston College), Butler, UTEP
13's: Belmont, Harvard, Oakland, Morehead State
14's: Bucknell, Long Island, Indiana St, Kent St
15's: Long Beach St, St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford
16's: Boston, UNC-Asheville, (McNeese St vs Texas Southern), (Bethune-Cookman vs Arkansas-Little Rock)

LAST FOUR IN: Michigan State, Washington, Alabama, Boston College
FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Memphis
NEXT FOUR OUT: Penn State, UAB, VCU, Missouri State

Trent said...

Pretty high on New Mexico there Dustin. To be honest, I don't know much about their profile besides the two BYU wins. Why so high on the Lobos?

Mike said...

team A

Dustin said...

New Mexico has 2 wins over BYU (pretty big wins), 2 wins over Colorado State, and a win over Colorado. If they beat BYU a third time, Im pretty sure they're in.

Anonymous said...

What is all the love for Boston College they have 1 win against the RPI top 50

Dustin said...

BC has one bad loss (to Yale), a win over Texas A&M, and a sweep of VT. You can throw Cal in for decent OOC win, but not much.

I dont think people have a lot of 'love' for BC. I have them as the last team in, in the worst field ever, with 3 extra at-large bids.

Anonymous said...

Here dustin is again with his redic seeding. How do you have Ill an 8 and Mich a 10? Thats better then both teams should be ranked right now so to get there theyd have to win. Only problem is they play each other.

And washington is higher then 12 now. They will be ahead of every team on your 11 line.

Dustin said...

Is my seeding better than your spelling?

Disagree on all points. Lets see some reasons.

Chase said...

The 1's - Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, Texas, North Carolina, Syracuse
The 3's - Purdue, Florida, UConn, San Diego State
The 4's - BYU, Wisconsin, Louisville, Kentucky
The 5's - Vanderbilt, WVU, Xavier, St Johns
The 6's - Kansas State, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
The 7's - Temple, UNLV, Old Dominion*, Arizona
The 8's - Missouri, Illinois, Utah State, Marquette
The 9's - George Mason, Florida State, Villanova, UCLA
The 10's - Tennessee, Butler*, Georgia, Richmond
The 11's - Gonzaga, Washington, Boston College, Colorado
The 12's - Michigan, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Alabama, Memphis
The 13's - Belmont*, Harvard, Oakland*, Wofford*
The 14's - Bucknell, Indiana State*, Long Beach State, Saint Peters*
The 15's - Morehead State*, Kent State, Long Island*, Northern Colorado*
The 16's - Boston U, UNC-Asheville*, McNese State, Arkansas Little Rock*, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Last 5 in: Michigan, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Alabama
Last 5 out: Virginia Tech, Penn State, USC, UAB, New Mexico
Others Considered: VCU, Missouri State, UTEP, Duquesne

Anonymous said...

no its not...1 word vs. 3 examples I gave you.

but anyways, who do you have winning the Mich game? Im guessing Mich. If thats the case, why would Ill deserve an 8? They have 1 good win and 1 horrible loss (Illinois-Chicago).

If thats not the case then explain how Mich would be a 10

Mike said...

B101. Wash a lock now?

Anonymous said...

Commenter @1:42am

Looks like we found a dude to match up against will in the first round as a 16 seed. Might have to win a play in game tho first.

JGibson said...

@Eric - I agree with you wrt St. Mary's. And groupthink doesn't necessarily match the committee. A few years ago, I had Syracuse out and Stanford in, and changed it after reading multiple bracketology sites. I should have remained independent! If you compare to St. Mary's to UAB, it doesn't seem to me that the two teams are nearly as far apart as some are making them, and in fact, I think St. Mary's could miss out altogether. Both St. Mary's and UAB are 22-8 overall, and 1-4 vs. the RPI top 50. They are both regular season champs but CUSA > WCC. And the raw RPI (30 vs. 47) favors UAB. In St. Mary's favor is wins over two clear tournament teams - St. John's and Gonzaga - compared to 0 for UAB, as their top 50 win is VCU (#50).

Bracketology 101 said...

Washington's not a lock, but we like their chances.

Bill said...

Washington's certainly safer than most other teams being discussed.

Bracketology 101 said...


NFL Picks said...

can't wait March Madness

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