Tuesday, February 23, 2010

B101's Weekday Tweets - Tuesday

Our quick thoughts on Tuesday's results:

Georgetown's success this season has been closely linked to Austin Freeman's ability to score, and never was that more evident than Tuesday night. The Hoyas struggled mightily offensively against Louisville in the first half, but Freeman caught fire after halftime, scoring 24 of his game-high 29 points to help lead Georgetown to a come-from-behind 70-60 win at Freedom Hall. Freeman hit all five of his three-pointers in the second half as the Hoyas went on a 21-2 run to blow the game open. With the win, Georgetown improved to 9-6 in the Big East and solidified their spot on the end of the 3 line. They host Notre Dame on Saturday, and then finish up with games at West Virginia and at home against Cincinnati next week. The Cardinals are also 9-6 in conference after the loss, but they have some work to do now if they want to stay on the right side of the bubble. They play at UConn on Sunday, and then at Marquette and against Syracuse at home next week. If they win two of those three, they're definitely in. If they go 1-2 (which is more likely) they will need to win one game in the Big East tourney (and maybe two depending on what seed they end up being) to be at-large worthy.

Gator Nation can rest easy: for the first time in three years, Florida looks like it's going dancing. With UConn AD and selection committee member Jeff Hathaway looking on, the Gators dominated Tennessee in the second half on Tuesday night, riding a 27-6 run to a convincing 75-62 victory in Gainesville. Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker each scored 19 points for Florida, which snapped a six-game losing streak to the Vols and leap-frogged Tennessee into third place in the SEC East at 9-4. They've now won three in a row overall, and at worst, they're going to finish 10-6 in conference with the games they have left (at Georgia, Vanderbilt, at Kentucky). Barring a slip-up against the Bulldogs this weekend, they'll probably be an 8 seed next week. Tennessee would be off the 5 line if we did a bracket tonight, but they have a chance to stay on that line (or maybe even move up a bit) if they can upset Kentucky in Knoxville on Saturday. After that game, the Vols host Arkansas and play at Mississippi State to finish up.

Northern Iowa's BracketBuster win over Old Dominion may have secured them an at-large, but their most recent effort did some serious damage to their eventual seeding. The Panthers suffered one of the worst losses of this college basketball season on Tuesday night, falling 55-54 to an Evansville team that had lost 17 of 18 overall and was just 1-15 in the MVC coming in. UNI was still without Jordan Eglseder, who served the third and final game of his DWI suspension, and the Panthers' offense was borderline inept without him. They shot 33 percent from the field for the game and were just 5-of-23 from three. The loss will drop UNI to at least two seed lines next week, and there's a chance they'll be as low as a 10. The Panthers finish up their regular season schedule on Saturday with a home game against Illinois State.

Of note: Syracuse won at Providence; Kansas State won at Texas Tech; New Mexico won at Colorado State; Illinois won at Michigan; Old Dominion won at Georgia State; Seton Hall beat Rutgers at home; Northeastern lost at home to Hofstra.

38 comments:

AG said...

I guess you can add Northern Iowa to the list of "Teams you wouldn't mind playing in the NCAA tournament."

Justin said...

Wow, I think you can add the MVC to the one-bid conference list. Evansville probably cost their conference a chance at two bids with wins over Wichita State and Northern Iowa.

Can Northern Iowa really stay in the bracket as an at large with wins over non-tournament teams Siena and ODU as their only two good wins? They still have a good Top 100 record, but most of those wins are over teams that aren't even close to the tournament. And they have one bad loss, and tonight's TERRIBLE loss.

Bracketology 101 said...

The Panthers' loss is atrocious, but let's not overreact too much. They should beat Illinois State at home in their season finale, and overall, they have three Top 50 wins (Wichita is No. 50 as of tonight). If UNI loses their first game of the MVC tourney, they'll be in serious trouble. Barring that, they'll be OK.

Dan Holmes said...

Also, keep in mind the committee may consider that Northern Iowa was playing without Eglseder.

Brian said...

Whats it going to take to get the Hoyas back on the 2 line?

Bracketology 101 said...

Georgetown needs to win its last three games and needs to root for Pitt and Ohio State to lose.

Brian said...

Thanks for the answer...Thats what makes this the best site out there. Not only does it have the best predictions, but you can get personal answers for almost all your questions. Thanks again!

Jeff said...

New Mexico is overrated.

Eric J. said...

I just read a preview story that said Roy Williams believed his team could still make the tourney, which seemed impossible (barring an ACC tournament victory). Am I wrong? If they win out and end up 18-13 and 7-9 do they get anywhere near the bubble?

I had assumed UNC needed to hope to finish 2-2 so they can get an NIT bid.

Bracketology 101 said...

North Carolina couldn't find the bubble with a GPS right now. The only way they're getting a bid is if they win the ACC tourney.

Anonymous said...

B101, I see where you're coming from, when talking about UNC. However, you must admit that if they win out, to finish at 18-13 with wins over 6 top 40 teams, 9 top 100 teams, and only 2 bad losses, that they wouldn't at least be in the conversation? How about if they then go in(lets say as the 8, and beat Virginia, and then duke(winning the season series 2-1, hypothetically), and then wake, (again winning the season series 2-1), before succumbing in a final against maryland, giving them 11 top 100 wins, 8 top 50 wins, and 6 against the top 32, and at 21-14, they wouldn't have to AT LEAST be considered? 8 wins against teams in your tourney, ( 3 2's, 2 5's, a 4, 2 8's)

Anonymous said...

Note, when you respond, B101, that whilst UNC has a TON of losses, 9 of the 13 are to teams higher in the RPI than ANY team UNI has played, None of which were within 65 RPI places of the depaul loss, or 150 places of the evansville loss, and all of which were higher than 3 of UNI's losses, bradley and the 2 aforementioned losses. UNC will also have 6 wins better than UNI's best, should the previous scenario play out.

mag900 said...

i'm not a unc fan, but if they win out, they definitely will be squarely on the bubble. ignore the 7-9 acc record because of the unbalanced schedule (they had to play the top 4 teams twice each -- duke, wake, ga tech and va tech). an 18-13 team with wins against duke, ohio st, mich st, va tech, fsu and wake not only would be on the bubble, i think it very well could be in, and that's before the acct. they also get the benefit of now having zeigler back.

now unc has stunk up the joint the past 2 months so i think this is highly unlikely. however, a run of the table in the regular season would put them in great shape to get a bid.

give me the brandy said...

UNC should worry about not finishing last in the ACC. What makes anybody think there's any chance that UNC can run the table? We could be saying the same thing about St. John's, except that would be much more reasonable.

mag900 said...

i don't know. maybe having 7 mcd AAs would have something to do with thinking that they may decide to play close to their potential? something along the lines of uconn the last 2 weeks. it's possible but not probable. were you predicting uconn's death 2 weeks ago too?

Anonymous said...

Brandy, It's just a hypothetical question, a humongous what if, designed to test the limits of our assumptions. We all assume that UNC won't be in the tourney, but are they REALLY dead and gone?

Bracketology 101 said...

Are we really having this discussion?

To be serious for a second, if Carolina runs the table and loses in the ACC final, they definitely be in the mix for an at-large.

And it's not going to happen.

Moving on...

Justin said...

Eh, I guess think Northern Iowa is in more danger than most. The fact that they were down a man may be their saving grace, as well as general bubble weakness.

I suppose it would depend on who they lost to in the tournament, but I think a tourney loss and the Evansville loss would cause everyone to take a closer look at their record, and I'm not sure there's any meat there to justify putting them in - no wins over an at large worthy team, and their T100 wins don't have a 'name' team among them.

Unfair? Yes. But still think they could be out if they needed an at large.

JGibson said...

I think UNI is safe. There's more to it than just your own RPI ranking (which is still very good even after the loss), and your record against top 25 and 50 teams. Big bonuses have continually been given to conference champions, especially when those conferences are RPI top 10 conferences. It's for this reason that I think UNI (and also Cal) is safe.

Brian said...

Up to what seed is supposed to get geographic protection in placement for 1st/2nd rounds? Thanks.

AG said...

But how many champions of RPI Top 10 conferences lose to the dead last team in their conference?

mag900 said...

Duke did.

Anonymous said...

If GT and WVU both take care of business this weekend is their game on Monday essentially for a low 2/high 3 seed?

Mark J said...

Clemson has a very tough schedule left. Could Clemson afford to lose 3 of the last 4?

Anonymous said...

There is no way UNC will win out. They should be concentrating on getting 1 win over Florida State. The way UNC plays defense, they will be lucky to finish over 500 let alone win at Wake Forest and Duke. Anyone who thinks UNC will make the tournament is under the influence of something strong.

Anonymous said...

How could Cal be considered "safe"? They have zero wins over the RPI top 50. Cal does not have a very strong at large resume.

JGibson said...

Offhand, I don't know how many of the top teams that got in had lost to the bottom teams of their conference, but remember these teams made it as regular season champs and resumes that were relatively weak otherwise:
Wyoming '02
Air Force '04 (did lose to the worst team in the MWC tournament).
UTEP '04

Finally, there was Air Force '06 who weren't even MWC regular season champs, but finished 2nd and lost to the 7th place team in the tournament.

The MVC did lose a bid in '06 when Air Force got it over Missouri State, but Missouri State wasn't a conference champ, and the MVC's champ has been pretty consistent in getting a bid.

JGibson said...

Cal's resume:
23rd in RPI
Pac-10 regular season champs.

I don't care what your record against the top 25 or 50 is. That's historically been enough. Although some people overly rely on the RPI, there is a point where your raw RPI ranking gets you in. Outside of Missouri State in 2006, top 30 RPI has been lock status.

Bracketology 101 said...

If Clemson loses three of their last four, they'll be on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the ACC tourney.

If Georgetown and West Virginia win this weekend, then yes, the winner of their game on Monday will probably be a low 2/high 3 seed.

JM said...

B101, How is Cal ranked so high in the RPI? They have not beaten any tournament quality teams.

JGibson said...

I do want to clarify - those lack of wins against tournament teams will probably hurt the seeding. I just still see Cal and UNI as in the tournament.

Anonymous said...

Is Virginia Tech a lock cause of their great record? Or will the committee consider their weak non-conference schedule?

Jane said...

Which lower seeded teams do you think could reach the sweet 16? I really like Utep, Richmond, and Texas A&M.

Anonymous said...

Would Florida State fall out of the bracket with a loss to NIT bound North Carolina tonight?

JGibson said...

Another followup: A good comparison to UNI is 2004 Southern Illinois: No top 50 wins, top 25 RPI, winners of the MVC regular season crowd. Got a #9 seed.

Anonymous said...

UNC would have to have a winning record to be NIT bound...

Anonymous said...

Virginia Tech's in trouble, no?

Their best road win is UVA (RPI 113)?
Their best neutral win is Seton Hall RPI 53)?
Only 2 top 50 RPI wins, both at home (Wake and Clemson).

You guys are the best. And I know you gave Palm crap for leaving Va Tech out of his bracket (he finally included them this week). But I think he was onto something with this team.

Anonymous said...

Was Roy Williams drunk when he said that? The Tar Heels will be hard pressed to finish at 500 let alone make the tournament. That was a strange statement by coach Williams.