Sunday, February 21, 2010

B101's BracketBuster Recap

Here are some of the final conference records for BracketBuster weekend:

MVC - 7-3
CAA - 3-9
WAC - 4-5
MAAC - 4-6
MAC - 7-5
Horizon - 5-5
Ohio Valley - 3-7
Big West - 7-2

Obviously, the biggest loser this weekend was the Colonial. The top four teams in the conference standings all lost, and hopes of the CAA being a two-bid league were greatly diminshed. After all the carnage, the only team left with any at-large hopes is Old Dominion. Their only hope would be to win out and lose in the conference final, and even then it will be tough to see a 9-loss, 40-ish RPI CAA team getting an at-large.

The MVC did well, but it really doesn't matter for anything, except to improve Northern Iowa's seed. Wichita State fell to Utah State and blew any chance they still had for an at-large bid. UNI is basically a lock at this point for a bid so at least the conference has a better chance than the CAA to get two teams in the tourney.

Utah State's win over Wichita State may actually end up being the most important result. The Aggies have now won 12 in a row and are in great shape to win the WAC by 2+ games. Their at-large chances are now looking a lot better than fellow mid-major conference leaders like Siena, Old Dominion, or UTEP.

Overall, the slate of games was weak and the results will have little impact come Selection Sunday. Whenever the MVC is having a down year, like they have had the past few seasons, BracketBuster weekend won't be especially compelling. We know the A-10 or MWC won't be participating in BracketBusters anytime soon, but getting C-USA and the WCC into the fold would be a major improvement.


Miner79 said...

Utep, wasn't even in a bracket buster, I don't know why u threw them into the conversation. Plus u make it sound like they lost, they've won 10 straight in a much tougher conference then the wac. No sir Utah St isn't a better at large chance than utep, they r good and are now just barely in the at large conversation, uteps been there. You may want to call Joe lunardi for a couple more pointers. Besides that great job.

Bracketology 101 said...

UTEP is playing great ball of late, but keep in mind that they still have no OOC resume whatsoever and that they only have one Top 50 win (against a UAB team that is barely in the field). The WAC is also rated one spot higher than C-USA in terms conference RPI (10 vs. 11).

Why would the most accurate bracketologists get pointers from the 10th most accurate bracketologist? We're confused.

Paymon said...

Nice summary, guys.

IF (and this is a huge IF) ODU wins out and gets to the final and loses to Northeastern, W&M, or VCU, then they have a realistic shot. Their hopes also hinge on Georgetown and Charlotte, each of whom they defeated.

That said, if they're not the 31st or 32nd best at-large team come two Mondays from now, then they are in real trouble, because multiple bids will be 'stolen' in other conferences.

I agree with Miner on UTEP having a better profile right now (maybe not a better outlook) than Utah State. UTEP going on the road and defeating Memphis, UAB and Tulsa (and overall resume, esp. since Caracter joined the team) is more impressive than Utah State's big win early versus BYU (at home) and their categorical domination of the WAC. That said, I understand rating Utah State ahead, because they have beaten a team who IS certainly in the tournament (BYU).

JGibson said...

I see Utah State as superior to UTEP right now. I do remember when UTEP got an at-large bid after winning the WAC, and Utah State did not from the west. And the WAC rates higher than CUSA this year. That win over BYU is huge. Both have losses to fellow bubble teams - Utah State to St. Mary's and UTEP to Mississippi. And UTEP also had a shot at BYU (and lost) and split with New Mexico Stat, which Utah State will also have done if they beat NMSU next game.

Additionally, Utah State has a better raw RPI and is 1-1 vs. RPI top 50 vs. UTEP's 1-2. And I think that Wichita State win will help.

Anonymous said...

The Big East is a mess where are all these teams going to be seeded? They keep beating up on each other.

Anonymous said...

Can you comment on Louisville, Marquette, UConn, Cincy, and South Florida? Who do you like out of the group to make it?

Bracketology 101 said...

We like Louisville and Marquette and then either UConn or Cincinnati. The Bearcats' sweep of the Huskies gives them a slight edge right now, but UConn can jump ahead with a win against West Virginia tomorrow. UConn's last three games aren't easy (Louisville, at ND, at South Florida), but they're easier than what Cincinnati has left (DePaul, at WVU, Villanova, at Georgetown). That's one more reason we like the Huskies a little better long-term.

Miner79 said...

Last points on this issue. Derrick Character didn't play most of the non conference or he was just getting acclimated. Fortunately we have warm bodies deciding instead of the heartless bcs, it will be considered how much better they are with him. Also they have like 6 top 100 road wins. Last point, the Wac is rated higher because there are 3 less teams, and C Usa's bottom 3 drag it down. Top 5 in the wac have an average rpi of 73 vs a 58 for c usa and utep has defeated those teams all on the road. Again the human factor will be coupled with numbers and all considered the top 5 in c-usa is better than the wac n utep is better than ill admit a pretty damn good Utah St team, plus saw them both play, huge difference in talent!

87Gaucho said...

... UCSB as a #14 against New Mexico .. in San Jose, CA.

If I could write our (realistic) ticket, that would be it.

Now, just win the BWT, Gauchos.

By the way, the Big West may have received the biggest boost from Bracketbusters, going 7-2. Of course, it won't matter if UCSB (or maybe UOP) doesn't win the conference tournament.

Bracketology 101 said...

That 7-2 is a bit deceiving as a few of those wins were against some of the worst teams in the country.