Saturday, February 06, 2010

B101's Saturday Tweets

Our quick thoughts on Saturday's results:

All season long, we have refused to put more than four A-10 teams in our weekly bracket. We thought a perfect storm of events would need to happen for the A-10 to get five bids, so even though teams like Richmond and Dayton had quality resumes, they had been left on the outside of the bracket looking in. That's finally about to change on Monday. Richmond will be in - as the A-10's fifth bid - after the Spiders' impressive 71-55 win over Temple at home on Saturday. Dayton has a strong case to be in as well after their home win over Xavier on Saturday, but the Flyers will probably end up falling just short of a bid. There's no way the A-10 is getting six bids, and putting Dayton in would give them that number. Charlotte is still 2.5 games better than the Flyers in conference, and there's no reason to take the 49ers (or Rhode Island) out after 2-0 weeks.

The A-10 might want to send a thank you card to the Pac-10 on Selection Sunday. The way things are shaping up right now, the A-10 is going to be the biggest beneficiary of the Pac-10's demise this season. It strange to think that the A-10 could get four more bids than the Pac-10, but that's reality right now.

Illinois had more to lose on Saturday than any at-large team in our field, and the Illini (with an assists from the Orange Crush) responded with a ginormous 78-73 upset of Kalin Lucas-less Michigan State in Champaign. Demetri McCamey was the hero for Illinois, scoring 22 points and adding 11 assists. McCamey's three-pointer with 37 seconds left gave the Illini a five point lead, and then Mike Davis blocked Durrell Summers' potential game-tying three with 10 seconds to play to seal the victory. Lucas or no Lucas, the win was huge for Illinois, whose schedule is absolutely brutal from here on out. At 8-3 in conference, though, they at least have some breathing room. How long they stay in our field will be determined by how they play on the road the couple of weeks. Three of their next four games are on the road - at Wisconsin, at Purdue, and at Michigan - and those are sandwiched around a home game against Ohio State. For Michigan State, this loss ends a forgettable 0-2 week that left them only a game up in the Big Ten and without their starting point guard. They'll drop down to the 3 line next week, and will turn their attention to getting Lucas ready for their showdown with Purdue in East Lansing on Tuesday.

Last week in our Saturday Tweets, we applauded Kansas State's student section for being perhaps the loudest and most creative student section in the country. The Octagon of Doom is still top-notch, but they had nothing on the Orange Crush Saturday night. The orange-clad Illnois students not only pulled off a very fast court rush (stop complaining, Dickie V), they were insanely loud all game and seemed to really rattle the Spartans at some big points in the game. They get the award for B101's Student Section of the Week. Your certificate is in the mail.

Georgetown bounced back quite nicely from its home loss to South Florida by dismantling Villanova in snowy D.C. Austin Freeman led five Hoyas in double figures with 25 points, and Georgetown cracked the 50-point mark in both halves in a convincing 103-90 win. Had the Hoyas beaten the Bulls earlier in the week, they wold have been a 1 seed in our next bracket. Instead, they'll be the top team on our 2 line, and 'Nova will likely hang on to the final spot on the 2 line.

We can officially say "we told you so" now about Virginia Tech. We loved the Hokies' chances to go 2-0 this week and they rewarded us with two big home wins - the latest and most important coming against Clemson in Blacksburg on Saturday. VT's 70-59 victory over the Tigers (who are now an ugly 4-5 in conference) moved the Hokies to 5-3 in the ACC and 18-4 overall. Every bracketologist will have them in their field on Monday. We'll still have them in ours - as a 10 or 11 seed.

We hope Mississippi State enjoyed its stay in the bracket. The Bulldogs capped an 0-2 week with a 69-62 loss at Florida on Saturday, and as a result, they'll be on the outside of the bracket looking in next week. Florida, meanwhile, improved to 17-6 overall and 6-3 in the SEC, and will keep their 7 seed on Monday. (Dear Lunardi, it's safe to put the Gators in your bracket now. We promise.)

Elsewhere in the SEC, Mississippi might have avoided a trip to the Last Four Out list with a miracle comeback at home against Alabama. The Rebels were down 20 at the half, but came storming back to earn an improbable 74-67 win. Chris Warren scored 21 points and Terrence Henry had 20 points and eight boards to lead Mississippi, which improved to 5-4 in the SEC with the win. Next up for the Rebels is a huge bubble battle at Mississippi State on Thursday in what could amount to a play-in game for next week's bracket.

Mississippi State isn't the only big conference team that might have seen its bubble burst on Saturday. Oklahoma State lost its third straight game, falling 81-74 at Texas Tech, and could land on the wrong side of the bubble on Monday as a result. The Cowboys are now 4-5 in the Big XII, which is not good enough given their weak OOC resume. They still have to play at Texas, at Texas A&M, and at home against Kansas and Baylor.

Texas' free-fall continued on Saturday in Norman, as they lost to an Oklahoma squad that was playing without leading scorer Willie Warren. The Longhorns, who have now dropped four of six overall, made just five of 18 threes for the game and were an unthinkable 10-for-27 from the line in an 80-71 loss. Tommy Mason-Griffin stepped up in Warren's absence to score 24 points for the Sooners, who led by as many as 19 in the second half. Texas will likely fall from a 3 down to a 4 or a 5 with the loss, with Ohio State being the most likely candidate to take their spot on the 3 line.

No team in our bracket had a better week than Texas A&M. The Aggies won at Missouri on Wednesday and then picked up another huge Big XII win at home against 24th-ranked Baylor on Saturday. A&M trailed for the entire first half, but managed to chip away at Baylor's lead from the free throw line after halftime. The Aggies finished 28-of-33 from the line from the game, and hit 10 straight late in the second half to take the lead for good. They'll move up at least two seed lines next week, while Baylor will fall at least one line as a result of the loss.

Could BYU be the third best team in the Mountain West? That's certainly debatable, but the Cougars didn't look very good at all on the road against UNLV on Saturday. They trailed by 22 at the half and lost 88-74 to the Runnin' Rebels to fall into a first-place tie with UNLV in conference. Tre'Von Willis scored a career-high 33 points for the Rebels in the win, which was their 28th victory in their last 30 games at home in conference play. BYU will be a low 6/high 7 seed in next week's bracket as a result of the loss. If they are on the 7 line, they might be there alongside the Rebels, who have the easiest schedule left among the three MWC contenders.

Of note: Vanderbilt lost 72-58 at Georgia; Gonzaga pulled out a tough win at Memphis; Northern Iowa escaped at home against Southern Illinois; Kansas beat Nebraska at home; Kentucky blew out LSU; West Virginia won at St. John's; Pittsburgh beat Seton Hall at home; Marquette won at Providence; Louisville beat Rutgers at home; UConn beat DePaul at home; Duke won at Boston College; Wake Forest won at Virginia; Georgia Tech beat N.C. State at home; Florida State beat Miami at home; Kansas State won at Iowa State; Missouri won at Colorado; Wisconsin won at Michigan; Tennessee beat South Carolina at home; New Mexico held off San Siego State in OT at home; Butler beat Wright State at home; Rhode Island beat UMass at home; Cal won at UCLA; UAB won at Rice; Wichita State rallied to beat Indiana State at home; Cornell beat Brown at home; UTEP beat Tulsa at home; Utah State beat Nevada at home; Old Dominion lost at VCU (more on this in the comments section); St. Mary's beat San Francisco at home; George Mason lost at Drexel.

30 comments:

AG said...

Texas is 4 mins away from the Bubble. At this rate they won't finish the big twelve with a winning record.

Anonymous said...

Are the A-10 fans still crying about VT getting in? 70-59!

Bracketology 101 said...

It was a good week for B101 and A-10 fans alike. The Hokies proved us right by winning two games, and Richmond got themselves a bid (the A-10's fifth) by beating Temple.

Can't we all just get along now?

James G. said...

Anonymous, Did the win over Clemson improve Va. Tech's horrible OOC resume? Should the Hokies get rewarded for playing cupcakes in OOC?

B101, Ole Miss is getting thumped at home by Alabama. Would a loss here knock the Rebels from the bracket?

James G. said...

how did the Hokies "prove you right"? They still have an awful non conference resume. Do you guys completely ignore the OOC profile of Virginia Tech?

Bracketology 101 said...

We are in no way defending VT's OOC schedule. We are just looking ahead projecting the Hokies to go 10-6 in conference, which will get them a bid out of the ACC no matter who they beat (or didn't beat) out of conference. Their two wins this week put them in great shape to get to 10-6 down the road.

Watch how many bracketologists follow our lead and put VT in this week.

Anonymous said...

Should Kansas beat Texas on Monday, have the Longhorns yet entered the bubble discussion?

Bracketology 101 said...

Texas has played pretty awful the last two weeks, but calling them a bubble team is a bit harsh (even if they lose to Kansas on Monday). They still have five Top 50 wins, a top 25 RPI, and they're tied for fourth in conference. They'll need a couple more head-scratching losses before they fall into bubble territory. Keep in mind that they did go 1-1 on the road this week in a league where road wins are few and far between.

Anonymous said...

Texas has wins over Pitt, Michigan State, TExas A&M, and Ok. State. It is a little too early to put Texas on the bubble.

a_swentzel said...

The SEC may be losing bids fast. Are both Mississippi teams in danger of falling out of your field? thanks for posting your projections on FOX.

HB said...

Thanks for all of the love for the MWC this year!! I still think that UNLV is not only the best MWC team, but is going to SHOCK the field in the tournament. What are the chances that the MWC gets 4 teams in this year? Any at all?

Anonymous said...

teams like Seton Hall, Iowa, Georgia and Penn State were all teams from major conferences that we thought would be tougher opponents than what they turned out to be.

Either way, VT has now won @UVA, and UNC and Clemson at home - I think we have proved with our 18-4 (5-3)(undefeated at home) record in one of the better conferences that we belong in barring a collapse. We have a schedule the rest of the way that is pretty favorable to us.

Anonymous said...

Major conference or not, Seton Hall, Iowa, Georgia and Penn State were all picked towards the bottom of their respective conferences. Virginia Tech played a very easy schedule early and need to win 10-11 ACC games to earn a spot. Otherwise, they will be penalized for scheduling so softly. VT needs to schedule tougher games next year.

Joel said...

WOW! Ole Miss dominated the 2nd half and erased a 20 point halftime deficit. San Diego St. dropped a tough Overtime loss at New Mexico.

Orange (and Maroon) Fan said...

B-101, you put ODU loses to VCU in your "Of Note" section, but how about VCU's chances of being one of the last in? They beat URich head to head, but are they still missing a signature win (which they cant get with their remaining sched?) Do they need 23-5 to make it?

Bracketology 101 said...

VCU's resume has some nice wins on it (Richmond, Rhode Island, ODU, Oklahoma, Nevada), but the fact that the Rams already have four conference losses at this point, and two losses to Northeastern, really hurts their resume. They are going to have to win out to be in the at-large picture on Selection Sunday. Doing that would add another win over ODU and a BracketBuster win over Akron to their resume, both of which would certainly help their cause.

The biggest storyline coming out of VCU's win over ODU today is that the Colonial is looking more and more like a one-bid league. ODU is no longer at-large worthy, and neither are George Mason (which has now lost two in a row) or Northeastern. VCU has the best at-large chance now, but they still have a lot of work left to do.

anonymous said...

It is amazing to me that you guys are so quick to point out any flaws in BYU. They have lost to 3 very good teams on the road. It astounds me to see that little love you guys have for the cougars. BYU the third best team in the MWC? Based on what? Losing on the road to UNLV and New Mexico? Didn't they beat Vegas at home? Hasn't New Mexico lost on the road to SDSU and Vegas (BYU beat SDSU in San Diego)? Vegas lost to Utah at home who BYU beat. To be taken serious you guys need to practice some objectivity

Anonymous said...

Question regarding my home town team, with a thank-god buzzerbeater win today for the golden gophers, what are minnesota's chances to make the tournament? I know were not in now, but how well are we going to have to play?

Anonymous said...

Is there much of a chance for the Gophers? I know they won today at the buzzer/

Bracketology 101 said...

It's not that we have no love for BYU, it's just that we think theat they have been a little overseeded by other bracketologists over the past few weeks. We think the Cougars are a 6 seed right now, not a 3 or 4 like other people have them. We are one of the few sites that has New Mexico seeded higher than BYU (even before today's game) and we don't understand why more people don't agree.

Anonymous said...

uh BYU has not beat anybody that is real good. There best win is UNLV at home by 4. New Mexico has beaten Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Cal, and BYU. granite they were all at home UNM does not have a good road win yet. UNLV has beaten UNM at the pit. Louisville, now a blowout of BYU. BYU has not shown me anything to warrant its current raiting

Anonymous said...

Completely agree with your assessment on BYU Bracketology 101

Bracketology 101 said...

It shows how far Minnesota has fallen that a buzzer-beating win over Penn State gets Gopher fans excited.

That said, Minnesota's win today was a must-have and it got them back to .500 in conference with eight games to go. Right now, Minnesota projects as a 9-9 team, which won't be enough to get them a bid. If they can finish 10-8, though, they'll have a good chance going into the Big Ten tourney. Gopher fans have to like the fact that Minnesota only has three road games left and the fact that they have Wisconsin and Purdue coming in over the next couple of weeks. If the Gophers are going to get to 10-8, it's imperative that they go 2-0 next week. They play Michigan at home on Thursday and then at Northwestern in a gigantic bubble battle on Sunday. The loser of that game might have its bubble burst for good.

Anonymous said...

Is West Virginia a #1 seed if they beat NOVA Monday night?

DC said...

At this point I think VCU should at least get a glance at winning the conference tournament. Remember: The Richmond Coliseum is about a mile away from The Stuart Siegel Center, so the CAA Tournament is essentially in VCU's backyard. The past two seasons the only team that can say they've beaten the Rams in Richmond is Northeastern.

Historically, Old Dominion does not fare well in Richmond; the last loss puts them at 1-10 all time at the Siegel Center. If VCU faces ODU in the conference championship, odds are good that VCU will win.

Even if they don't win the tournament, they should get some at-large attention. VCU only has one bad loss on its resume, and that's at Western Michigan. Both Drexel and Northeastern are among the top teams in the conference, and Northeastern was one of the popular picks to win the CAA in pre-season. I think they have gone under the radar for the most part.

Bracketology 101 said...

If West Virginia goes 2-0 next week (they play at Pitt on Friday) there's a very good chance they'll be a 1.

Anonymous said...

Bracketolgoy 101 if UNLV beats UNM and SDSU this upcoming week where do you see their seed heading?

Bracketology 101 said...

Probably a 6.

Anonymous said...

Why is Jacksonville State from the OVC in the play in game on the FoxSports bracket??? That is whack????

Bracketology 101 said...

We'll e-mail FOX Sports right now and find out. It should be Jackson State.