Monday, February 15, 2010

B101's Weekday Tweets - Monday

Our quick thoughts on Monday's results:

What a difference 48 hours made for UConn. Two days after what Jim Calhoun called an "embarrassing" loss to Cincinnati at home, the Huskies were a completely different team against Villanova, playing aggressively on both ends of the floor and pulling off a season-saving 84-75 upset of the 3rd-ranked Wildcats Monday night at the Wachovia Center. Kemba Walker was the hero for UConn, as he went 14-for-16 from the free throw line and scored a season-high 29 points in the victory, which was - astonishingly - the Huskies' first true road win of the season. It was also UConn's first win over a top-10 RPI opponent after losing their previous four such games by 20 points combined. The win moves the Huskies to 5-8 in the Big East, and officially makes them a factor again on the Big East bubble. Their remaining schedule (at Rutgers, WVU, Louisville, at ND, at South Florida) is far from easy, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that the Huskies go 4-1 in those five games and finish 9-9 in conference. If they do that, and beat the Mountaineers along the way, they would be in good shape to grab a bid with a couple of wins in the Big East tourney.

As for Villanova, the loss is their second in their last four games, and it drops them back into a tie for first in the Big East with Syracuse. The loss also puts the Wildcats' 1 seed in jeopardy, especially with a game at Pitt looming on Sunday. If they lose that game, they'll definitely be a 2 next week. Even if they win, a case could still be made for Purdue or Duke (if either go 2-0 this week) to replace them on the 1 line.

Kansas certainly didn't play like the top overall seed against Texas A&M, but the Jayhawks did just enough to scrape out a 59-54 win over the red-hot Aggies Monday night in College Station. A&M had a four point lead with six minutes to play, but Kansas went on an 11-2 run the rest of the way to win its 11th straight game and its sixth straight conference road game. The most impressive part of the victory for the Jayhawks was that they did it without much help from Sherron Collins, who scored just seven points and had a team-high five turnovers. Bill Self also had to be thrilled with how his team defended the typically high-scoring A&M offense late in the game. Kansas held the Aggies to just five points over the last 7:15, and limited them to 34 percent shooting for the game. Next up for the Jayhawks is a home game against Colorado on Saturday. A&M's next game is also Saturday, on the road against Iowa State. A win over the Cyclones would keep A&M from falling very far on the S-curve next week; a loss would likely them down from a 6 to an 8.

Of note: Greivis Vasquez scored 30 points as Maryland blew out Virginia at home; Morgan State lost its first MEAC game of the season - to South Carolina State at home; Coastal Carolina won at UNCC; Jackson State won at Texas Southern in OT.


Anonymous said...

Explain to me how Duke could end on the 1 line? They were beaten by Wisconsin and crushed by Georgetown. Those 2 teams are, IMO, the 4th best teams in their conference. The Big East and Big 10 first and second place finishers should both have a leg up on Duke for a 1 seed (along with Kansas and Kentucky).

Anonymous said...

I could easily Duke getting a #1 seed - they are #2 in RPI right now and have the most RPI top 50 wins in the nation.

Anonymous said...

Based on your projected-prediction seeding... Could you tell me how you see FSU's last 5 games playing out?

BEISketbol said...

Does UConn get into the last eight out with a win at Rutgers Saturday?

Where is Memphis on your S-curve? They have to be close to the last eight out, right? Big win at Tulsa on Saturday.

How much does Egleseder being out of the lineup affect how far UNI would fall with a loss or two in their next three games, which is not an easy stretch (Creighton, ODU, at Evansville)?

Anonymous said...

Duke may have the most RPI top 50 wins (most of them are not top 25), but when they've played the best, they've lost. And as has been stated earlier, those 'best' teams they lost to are the 4th best in their respective conferences. Meaning the ACC is very weak this year and does not deserve a 1 seed.

Bracketology 101 said...

Purdue defnitely has a leg up on Duke in terms of a 1 seed, but the Blue Devils are still in the mix because of their aforementioned nine Top 50 wins and the relatively easy schedule they have left.

FSU should be able to go 4-1 down the stretch, but history has shown that they'll probably go 3-2, finish 9-7 in conference, and be right on the bubble heading into the ACC tourney.

UConn will be back on the Last Eight Out list next week if they win at Rutgers. Memphis is close to the Last Eight Out, but they aren't worthy of a spot there yet. They only have one top 50 win, and that came at home to a UAB team that is really scuffling right now.

Egleseder's absence might have a slight effect on UNI's seeding, but they can't bank on the committee cutting them too much slack. They need to win their BracketBuster game at home against ODU, a team that is just behind them in terms of at-large credentials.

Jane said...

is tonite a must win for miss. state?

Anonymous said...

In your projection/prediction method, are you expecting Va Tech to lose both games this week (Wake and @Duke)?

Bracketology 101 said...

It's not a "must-win" for Mississippi State, but it means they might have to win out to get a bid. They need more wins over tourney-caliber SEC teams not named Mississippi, and beating Kentucky certainly qualifies as that.

We have VT winning at BC, at home against Maryland and N.C. State, and then winning one of their other three games (Wake tonight, at Duke, or at GT). Beating the Demon Deacons tonight at home is probably their best bet.

Tim said...

Mississippi State has a good chance to upset UK tonight. I like the Bulldogs by 6.