Sunday, March 15, 2009

Selection Sunday Bracket Talk

We are putting the final touches on our Final Field of 65, which will be released around 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, readers can use this post to ask questions, discuss the bubble, or make their own predictions about who's in, who's out, and who's seeded where. We will check in periodically to answer questions.

Enjoy the last few hours before the Slection Show...

91 comments:

NickP said...

Is Maryland still in your bracket?

Anonymous said...

How much does FSU's win over UNC yesterday impact their potential tournament seeding?

Anonymous said...

Are the Badgers really that safe? There body of work is a little shaky, but everyone seems to have them in.

Anonymous said...

What are Arizon's chances of making the tournament?

MichaelR said...

Who did USC push out of the field? I'll guess its Penn State, since the Lions' marquee wins over the likes o Illinois, MSU and Purdue may be overshaowed by lo RPI.

Anonymous said...

Same question on Minnesota. Most, if not all have them in, are we still on shakey ground ?

It's been great reading you guys. Thanks for effort you put into this.

TheVelvetFog said...

Any chance Auburn will get selected? even a slim small chance? enough of a chance to watch the selection with a tiny bit of hope inside?

Anonymous said...

BC a 9 seed?

David Dressel said...

has anyone seen and printed out cbs's bracket...it sucks.....bring back the old classic cbs

Anonymous said...

Inquiring minds want to know if Maryland is going to make it.

Bracketology 101 said...

We can't difinitvely answer most seeding questions yet because today's results will have an impact on a bunch of teams' seeds.

We san say, however, that:

...Maryland is in.

...Minnesota is in (on the 10 line).

...Arizona has about a 25-30% chance of getting in.

...Auburn has about a 10-15% chance of getting in.

Nebrasketball said...

How would you handicap Creighton's chances at getting in? You have them below St. Mary's, correct?

How do you rank SDSU, Creighton, and St. Mary's?

Jakob Kagel said...

I am of the party that has SDSU ahead of Crieghton....you just can't lose in your semi's by 25 and still get in....

www.collegebasketball247.blogspot.com

Craig said...

Does Illinois drop to a 5 or a 6 with the loss to Purdue, and does Purdue go to a 4 if they win today? What does Penn St. need to have happen today to have a chance?

Matt said...

Lunardi has UConn as a 2 and BC as a 10.

How full of ish is he?

Anonymous said...

ESPN is reporting SDSU is out. I think they have just enough to earn one of the final at large berths and land an 11 seed.

jared said...

Penn State in or out with a Tennesse win? I'm under the impression they have a lot better resume than any of the mid-majors because here is the key, they all claim marquee victories in conference just like PSU. Marys/SDSU no way, Creighton has UD win but still got taken to the wood shed. I think Last 3 in are Maryland, PSU, Creighton/Zona.
Thoughts Bracketology?

Anonymous said...

Where do you think Duke will play? ESPN has them playing in Minneapolis in the first two rounds?

Sean said...

Since the committee seems to always have at least one surprise team in and one surprise team out, I think that Auburn or Florida (more likely Auburn) may get in ahead of Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota (I'm leaning toward Minnesota here). Penn State is out anyway.

I know no one on the committee will admit to it and I know they say conference doesn't matter, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Slive finds a way to get that extra SEC team in over a Big Ten team. If Miss St. wins today, I wouldn't be surprised to see them take the place of Big Ten #7.

If the Big Ten does get 7 and the SEC 3, I have to say St. Mary's edges out Creighton by a hair due to the Patty Mills factor and the quality of their losses (all 3 Top 50 losses were to Gonzaga).

Academics on Athletics said...

I'd be shocked if Maryland or Minnesota get left out. It's really two spots available for six teams - 3 mid majors (Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego St) and 3 majors (Penn St, Arizona, Auburn).

http://academicsonathletics.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

b101 is Michigan in??

is PSU IN?

Anonymous said...

Do you think there's anyway San Diego State, Creighton, and St. Mary's will all get in the tourney? I just don't see them putting 3 mid-major bubble teams in.

Craig said...

"Since the committee seems to always have at least one surprise team in and one surprise team out, I think that Auburn or Florida (more likely Auburn) may get in ahead of Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota (I'm leaning toward "

Bracketology 101 had Minnesota as a 10 seed at 10:16 this morning, not sure what's changed. A 10 seed is pretty safe. Auburn would come in as a 12 if they get in at all.

Wolf said...

St. Mary's should not be ahead of Creighton (a bigger question is whether either of these teams are better than Arizona, Penn State, Maryland and other BCS shools). But if we're comparing "mid-majors" ... Creighton is being downgraded because of recent losses by Dayton, New Mexico, etc., but that downgrade is reflected in their RPI ... which is still better than St. Mary's. Creighton finished tied for 1st in a much better conference than the WCC, they played FIFTEEN teams in the top 100, winning 10 of them - including four true road games. St. Mary's played just seven ... winning just three - and NONE of them on the road. Their two awful losses - Portland and Santa Clara - were by 16 points (where Mills' wouldn't have made a difference, certainly not in his current state). Mills showed vs Portland, Gonzaga and now Eastern Washington that he is not 100%, so the team's recent struggles is indicative of how "good" the Gaels are. And if we're talking about players missing games, don't forget that Stinnett missed the game at Nebraska (2 point loss); so if we're giving teams slack for missing key players, then give Creighton that win (Stinnett is surely worth 2 points) ... and their 11-5 against top 100, with five of those being on the other team's court. Personally, I'd take Arizona or Penn State or Maryland over either of these two ... but as between Creighton and St. Mary's, it isn't really that close - the Blue Jays are/should be at least a half dozen spots ahead of the Gaels on the consideration list. I sure hope the committee doesn't screw this up, or it'll allow teams to tank games when they have injured players (since they'll be ignored) and allow coaches to schedule puff games at the last minute against D2 quality teams just to add a W.

RF said...

With all this crunching of the numbers and math matrices and all lat, my question is, who is the BASKETBALL player that will bust up the bracket? Who is the real, basketball player that will throw a glitch in the matrix this tourney season?

Is it this Patty Mills kid? The W. Ky point guard dude? Steph Curry?
Who will it be?

Your thoughts Bracketology? N E One?

Anonymous said...

Is Penn State in?

Mike said...

Are Clemson and FSU really going to get the same seed? To me the Tigers and Noles are headed in different directions, and given the way they've played in the last 2 weeks and FSU's sweep of the Tigers, FSU should be seeded higher.

Matty said...

ESPN is loving Arizona this am, but I say they're out. Only 1 win in the last month, and that was against a weak Stanford team.

I think St. Mary's is the last team in. They scheduled Providence, Kent State, Oregon and Southern Illinois OOC - tough break for them that all of those teams had down years. The Mills injury probably gets them just enough consideration to squeak in.

Anonymous said...

what are psu's chances compared st.mary's and Creighton

Anonymous said...

penn state SHOULD be in, but the committee will reward the mid-majors. this is after penn state has high quality road wins, 6 top 50 wins, and 3-1 against the TOP 25. Penn State will be able to change its playing style to up-tempo for the tourney.

Sean said...

Craig, keep in mind that almost EVERYONE in 2007 had Syracuse in as at least a 10 seed, including B101 and Joe Lunardi.

They didn't get in. It was such a surprise the NIT had to scramble at the last minute to fit them in as a 3 seed (I think).

Anonymous said...

one of the guys on CBS said that penn state is in if tennessee wins. i don’t know who it was because i couldn’t see the tv. let’s hope he has some inside information.

Anonymous said...

why don't you answer anyone

Craig said...

Sean, you could be right and Minnesota is out. It wouldn't even be much of a "surprise". I thought you were looking for Bracketology 101's take on your scenario which is why I mentioned they had them at the 10 just a couple hours ago.

Howard Salwasser said...

Sean, if Auburn (or Florida for that matter) got in, it would be at the expense of either Creighton, St. Mary's, Dayton or (less likely Maryland).

Anonymous said...

Who are your 1s? Will Memphis and UConn be in the same region?

Jeremy S. said...

What is up with Lunardi bumping San Diego State out of the bracket for Creighton and St. Mary's!? All week, everyone said that SDSU would be in with one MWC tounament victory and they barely lost in the finals and now Lunardi leaves them out. I hope this isn't a case of him having inside info again.

Anonymous said...

Can someone explain to me how Minnesota has a better resume than Penn State? Minnesota was 6-9 in their last 15 games. Louisville was playing its worst basketball of the year when Minnesota beat them. Does that one win trump all the good wins Penn State had in conference?

MattLion said...

Keep an eye on the refs in this Tenn/Miss St. game. They know the SEC will get more money in its coffers if they get more bids (i.e. MSU pulling the upset, like Georgia last year).

Howard Salwasser said...

An addendum to my previous comment, a real surprise(and a controversial one at that) would be including someone like a Georgetown getting when they did nothing the last few weeks to improve their positioning.
Oh and Sean, they would never add a team from another team from one conference just to reduce the number of teams some other conference would get in the field on purpose. Teams have to be individually compared against each other, not on a per conference basis.

MattLion said...

"An addendum to my previous comment, a real surprise(and a controversial one at that) would be including someone like a Georgetown getting when they did nothing the last few weeks to improve their positioning."

The "regulars" in the comments section (including me, the last 2 days) were wondering about any "surprise" selection teams showing up. Someone like a G'Town. With the internet and all the "bracketologists" out there, it's becoming tougher for a team to really come out of nowhere and get a bid. Except for maybe Air Force in '06.

Academics on Athletics said...

All the teams on the bubble can probably make a good case for themselves RELATIVE to the other teams on the bubble. But, can they really look at themselves and say they deserve to be in the tournament? They each blew chances to make their season worthy of a selection, which is why they are not "locks" at this point. Frankly, it would be great to see Miss St win today and take away another bid.

http://academicsonathletics.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Wow....Duke running FSU right out of the building. Everyone says Duke has no chance at #1. But they look real good.

MattLion said...

"But, can they really look at themselves and say they deserve to be in the tournament? They each blew chances to make their season worthy of a selection, which is why they are not "locks" at this point. Frankly, it would be great to see Miss St win today and take away another bid."

A vast majority of seasons, I would agree with that statement. Bubble teams are bubble teams for a variety of reasons.... but I'm also a PSU grad so this year I have different rooting interests.

Anonymous said...

how does everyone feel abot cleveland state?

Nebrasketball said...

"how does everyone feel abot cleveland state?"

Solidly in, IMO.

Anonymous said...

"how does everyone feel abot cleveland state?"

Of course, they're in as an automatic. They beat a top 15 Syracuse club on the road. They beat a top 25 Butler club on the road. Those 2 wins are better wins than the best wins of a lot of the big boys.

Anonymous said...

i agree their in bc automatic birth but where theyll be seeded and where theyll play? if they play gonzaga like expected can they have a shot at winning?

MattLion said...

I would consider Cleve St. a dangerous 12/13. They have a shot to win a game if they draw a team that gets surprised by their athleticism, much like Siena last year.

Anonymous said...

but what if they draw gonzaga?

purdue fan 101 said...

i think purdue is a sweet 16 hopeful

purdue fan 101 said...

hay bracketology dude what do u think of purdue

Anonymous said...

I have never watched a Purdue game and seen Robbie Hummel do anything. To be fair, though, I took a long nap yesterday.

Anonymous said...

Is Syracuse looking at a 3 or 4 seed? Will their head-to-head win over Kansas mean anything in the conversation?

Anonymous said...

Syracuse could maybe squeeze a 3 I think. FSU getting absolutely killed today helps.

Anonymous said...

Can you list the big ten from most secure to least? How strongly do you feel the selection committee would agree with your ordering?

Anonymous said...

I'm thoroughly convinced Lunardi has an inside source. Last night on ESPN after the Big East championship, he proclaimed Kansas as his last #2. Today, I wake up and check his bracketology and he's dropped them to a #3 seed. What's changed between midnight last night and right now??

Jakob Kagel said...

I seriously think you should start a bracketology twitter.....

www.twitter.com/collegebb247

Bracketology 101 said...

Real quick...then we gotta get back to the war room:

Our Big Ten order hasn't changed. In order of safeness, we like:

Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Penn State

Anonymous said...

I think Arizona makes it 25 straight years in a row

Anonymous said...

psu in or out

Howard Salwasser said...

To the 1:18 PM post, in that case Lunardi is behind the curve. Most brackets have them at a 3 seed(I have them as the top 4th seed).

Anonymous said...

psu should be in over creighton and st.marys

Anonymous said...

FSU hopes of 3 seed = done.

Anonymous said...

What are the odds for SDSU to get in?

Anonymous said...

Be advised that Mike Slive cannot vote on SEC teams.

Anonymous said...

WOW, this SEC title game is a CHOKEFEST!

Missed game tying freethrows, steps out of bounds, 5 second calls, stealing the inbounds pass, all in the last 10 seconds?!

Sean said...

Wow...what a crazy finish in the SEC. Minnesota and Creighton must REALLY be sweating now, as I personally think St. Mary's is still safe.

Anonymous said...

what the heck was the clock operator doing? did they let a tennessee fan have the job for the day or something? even on that last play it was a good 2-3 seconds before the clock actually started.

Anonymous said...

tennessee's players have a total iq of 70

Dan Holmes said...

Lunardi makes a last minute change every year that turns out to be accurate. Of course he has an inside source.

R.W.McGee said...

Creighton and PSU are out, I believe.

Anonymous said...

This clock operator didn't mess up nearly as badly as the one who worked the Oklahoma-Okla St. game during the Big XII Tourney.

Anonymous said...

Well, the end of that SEC championship game cemented it as the worst BCS conference I've ever seen this year.

Missed free throw. Failed rebound. 5 second call. Turnover out of bounds. Turnover.

All in the final 15 seconds of the game. Awful. It is a JOKE that the SEC will get 3 bids this year.

Dan Holmes said...

Anonymous at 2:12 is correct; Slive cannot vote on SEC teams. I was surprised that the commentators during the SEC championship didn't seem to be aware of this.

Anonymous said...

Slive may not be able to vote on SEC teams, but he's in the best possible position to lobby for SEC teams. I don't think it will matter this year, but in prior years it did.

Anonymous said...

Worst finish of any college game I've ever seen let alone a championship game. The SEC should be disqualified from any bids this year

mike said...

sucked being a bubble fan and watching the SEC final. i hope penn state's chances aren't completely gone.

Anonymous said...

The rule is that Slive has to leave the room when SEC teams are considered. So I don't think he can lobby for them either. All he can do is answer questions that he is asked.

Howard Salwasser said...

Sorry St. Mary's, it looks like Mississippi State just burst you out of the field.

Anonymous said...

It's weird to me how many people have SDSU out and don't really see them as being close to the bubble. In my mind SDSU is ahead of Minnesota, Penn St., Arizona, Creighton, and St. Mary's. I wonder why so many people are down on them. They are for sure the #3 team out of the MWC, have a very strong RPI and lost a close one to Utah. My bet is SDSU will be ok.

Oh yeah, and MSU beating Tenn means Florida and Auburn are done. Really done.

mike said...

everything was looking ok for the bubble...usc was down by like 15. they obviously won and now this win by miss. st. really bursts it for teams. so now it is 1 bid left for about 5 teams?

Anonymous said...

Last Four In:
Maryland
San Diego State
Minnesota
Dayton

Last Four Out:
Creighton
St. Mary's
Penn State
Arizona

R.W.McGee said...

I do wonder if Maryland isn't something of a 'trendy' pick. I know the commentators love them based on their win over Wake Forest...but the committee has to look at a team's entire resumee. I'm not as sold on Maryland or Wisconsin as many people are.

Anonymous said...

It's 4:01.

Anonymous said...

It's 4:03pm.

Anonymous said...

B101...i thought you said to put creighton or st. mary's in over penn state "would be a crime."

Ryan West said...

I think there are 2 spots open, 7 teams going for those spots.

IN:
Maryland, St. Mary's

OUT:
Penn State, SDSU, Arizona, Creighton, Auburn

JGibson said...

SDSU's problems are the losses to St. Mary's (on a neutral court) and Arizona. It's the fact that those teams are also in competition for the same bid.

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