Bracket BreakdownHere is Bracketology 101's Final Field of 65:
A couple of notes:
St. Mary's is our last at-large team in the field despite the fact that they are on the 11 line. We had to put Maryland down on the 12 line for numbers purposes.
Penn State was knocked out today by Mississippi State.
Last Four In
Minnesota, Dayton, Maryland, St. Mary's
Last Four Out
Penn State, San Diego State, Creighton, Arizona
Next Four Out
Auburn, Providence, South Carolina, Florida
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Seeds
The 1s
North Carolina, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Michigan State
The 2s
Connecticut, Duke, Memphis, Oklahoma
The 3s
Missouri, Wake Forest, Villanova, Kansas
The 4s
Syracuse, Florida State, Washington, Gonzaga
The 5s
Illinois, Purdue, Xavier, Arizona State
The 6s
UCLA, Utah, West Virginia, Ohio State
The 7s
Tennessee, Texas, Clemson, Butler
The 8s
LSU, Marquette, California, Oklahoma State
The 9s
BYU, Utah State, Michigan, Texas A&M
The 10s
Boston College, Wisconsin, Minnesota, USC
The 11s
Siena, Dayton, Temple, St. Mary's
The 12s
Maryland, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, Northern Iowa
The 13s
Cleveland State, VCU, Binghamton, American
The 14s
Stephen F. Austin, North Dakota State, Portland State, Akron
The 15s
Cornell, Morgan State, Robert Morris, East Tennessee State
The 16s
Cal State Northridge, Radford, Morehead State, Chattanooga (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)
The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com
72 comments:
I hope you nailed it!
B101...i thought you said to put creighton or st. mary's in over penn state "would be a crime."
I am happy about MSU #1.
Dpo you really think it will play out that way and why?
St. Mary's over PSU?
michigan state #1?? I never expected that. Too bad there is a 0% chance of that happening. It is clearly UNC, Louisville, Pitt, and UCONN or Memphis.
So what does Minnesota have that Penn State doesn't?
minnesota beat louisville when louisville was playing its worst basketball. the entire country hates penn state, so that is why they are out. penn state is better than minnesota. LOOK AT THE QUALITY WINS. Penn State finished higher than michigan and minnesota in conference. penn state will get screwed.
0% chance of that happening? Their resume is a hell of a lot better than Memphis'.
We just don't think Memphis deserves a 1 seed and we don't think that a Dyson-less UConn team is going to get one either. We took Michigan State because of their Big Ten regular season title and their ridiculous 13 Top 50 wins.
We think St. Mary's, because of the Mills injury, is a very unique case for the committee. We feel very strongly that the committee will look at how well they played before Mills got hurt, and the fact that he is back healthy, and give the Gaels a shot.
"the entire country hates penn state, so that is why they are out."
How about because their best OOC win is Mount St. Mary's and best OOC road win is Georgia Tech? When you're OOC SOS is 304 and you play FOUR home games OOC against teams with RPI over 280, your resume is weak.
UCONN should be the last #1 seed. i can't go against B101 though since he has the best bracketology blog on the web. B101, any chance the committee surprises us with Penn State?
Interesting. We'll see if the committee values MSU's top 50 wins as much as you. To be clear, you are trying to predict committee behavior, right?
How close was Syracuse vs Kansas to you? What made you decide to switch their rankings between Friday and today?
We think that everyone is assuming the last 1 goes to Memphis right now just because Lunardi has them there. Keep in mind, he missed a 1 seed last year....
Kansas vs. Syracuse was very, very close. In the end, though, we gave Kansas the edge because we think the committee will reward them for winning the regular season Big XII title.
anyone else thinks it sucks that the committee looks like a bunch of the most boring people? I don't like the BCS system, but I think a system like it would work better with such a large field like this tourney. top 64 in. and no, i don't mean the rpi.
Memphis is clearly inferior to last year's model. Even if Tyreke Evens is better than Derek Rose, they don't have Dorsey they don't have CDR.
I mean they lost to Syracuse and Georgetown at home. Yeah they beat Tennessee and Gonzaga, but they still can't hit a 3 or a freethrow to save their lives. Besides, there are bubble teams with more Top 50 wins.
i don't know who i like least, digger phelps or joe lunardi.
@Bracketology101
I agree with your logic behind MSU as a #1. Memphis fans can cry all they want but that schedule is not at all impressive, and Connecticut clearly isn't the same team without Dyson.
Also, I just cannot see the committee giving the Big East three #1s.
why does everyone think that Penn State's terrible OOC schedule negates their good wins? i thought it was about who you beat and where.
Justin, those "home" losses MSU sustained were on neutral courts.
Penn State a better team than Minnesota???? Minnesota whooped em by 20 in Minny, and it took a miracle in Happy Valley for Penn State to win. As far as quality wins..hmmmm. I am still trying to think of any OUT of conference wins.
...Joe Lunardi
So the Syracuse win vs. Kansas doesn't trump Kansas winning the Big 12 regular season?
I should expect a four seed for the Orange and be thankful if we get a three?
@Justin McCallon
Michigan State's losses to the ACC squads were early in the season, and neither were at home.
The game against Maryland was neutral court and they were without Goran Suton. They were also without Suton against North Carolina, and they had just come off a stretch of 3 games in 5 days. I remember Roy Williams saying that the Spartans looked gassed all night, and not really because of UNC's tempo.
You do make an excellent argument for Duke, and I think there's a very good chance they slide up to the fourth #1 spot.
i was at the Penn state game at home against minnesota. it wasn't a miracle win. joseph kept the gophers in with 5 3's in a row and around 7 overall. penn state won the game...without a miracle.
@Justin McCallon
State's loss to Maryland was on a neutral court, and technically so was the loss to UNC (@ford field). They also played both of those games without their top big man, Goran Suton.
Nobody has more wins against the RPI top 50 than MSU.
Duke has a case for a #1 too. Memphis' resume is absolutely inferior to Louisville, UNC, UConn, Pitt, MSU, and Duke. It really isn't even close. They shouldn't be anywhere near a discussion on 1 seeds.
The problem with MSU's rpi top 50 wins is that most of those wins are against the middle and bottom of the top 50.
Yes Mike, it was a miracle. Battle hit a joke 3 at the end of the half, and Minnesota outplayed them whether you were at the game or not. Point is, where is your ooc wins at? And don't give me the.... oh Louisville wasn't playing good, not are fault. Look, I hope you guys get in, I give you props for winning at Mich.St. and Illinois. I just think it's clear that Minny deserves a bid.
The problem with Memphis' top 50 wins is that there's 2 of them. 2. Memphis is being talked about as being a #1 when they've beaten 2 tourney teams all year. It's absurd.
Minnesota also did not lose to a team lower than 76 RPI, I think I read that here...yet Penn State lost to several teams well below 125 rpi. Penn State had their chance to sew up a bid last weekend, but lost to lowly Iowa. The Gophers aren't a great team, but deserve to be ahead of PSU. And, their rpi is 25 points higher than PSU.
how the heck do u have st marys and minnesota over psu, psu's wins over mich state, Illinois twice purdue michigan and a spilt with Minnesota's equals the one win Minny had over Lousiville. If Psu is out that is B.S.
Minnesota also swept Wisconsin, beat a couple other minor conference champions/tournament participants Cornell and NDSU (which the committee always likes), MN beat Illinois, beat Ohio State too. Penn State just had too many losses to bad teams.
penn state should at least be in over st. mary's and its mid-week special.
Minny and Creighton over PSU is a total joke!
Do you believe they'll be able to leave out Penn State, who's 10-8 in the Big Ten, over a couple teams that went 9-9 in the same conference? It seems to be that when you take into account the resumes of Minnesota and Michigan, and then you see Penn State has a game on them in the conference, you almost have to include them all. Penn State's 6-9 record against RPI top 50 teams seem to reflect that.
What are you all's final fours opinions based on this bracket.
psu should be in over creighton and and st.marys and minny!
One thing that jumps out at me on this bracket is Minnesota and Texas in round 1, the winner taking on Uconn in round 2. I think Minnesota has a very good chance of beating Texas, and I think a Jerome Dyson-less Uconn might also be susceptible to an upset. Potentially interesting. I held Uconn in high regard during the year, but after watching them play Syracuse I'm convinced that they can't win a national championship without Dyson, and they'll be very lucky to get to a final four.
minny creighton and st.marys dont deserve to be in over PSU.
Penn St.'s good wins are all in conference, so it is impossible to know how "good" those wins were. When the big 10 craps the bed the first two rounds and sends no one to the sweet 16, how good will their resume look in retrospect?
It is like the MVC two years ago.
Acknowledging that this is all hypothetical
South
I think Carolina is not going to be happy to see LSU in the 8 slot in their bracket. Nor will they be pumped to have Oklahoma in their region. I think UCLA is a sweet 16 team in that region...
West
MSU is a soft #1, and UCONN will like that. Maryland might beat Xavier and might lose by 20, hard to say. Washington could be a sleeper there.
Midwest
FSU-Louisville in the sweet 16 would be very interesting. I think Mizzou will be a tough out, (I love Mike Anderson teams in the tournament) and Memphis is a big X factor.
West
Pitt-Gonzaga and Duke-Kansas in the sweet 16 would be epic. This is the only bracket that I expect to be a breeze for the #1. Pitt is battle-tested.
why all the love for wisconsin by the way? what's their big win? virginia tech? sure, they played better teams OOC than penn state, but it should only matter if you win them.
It's nice to have one voice of sanity amidst the avalanche of anti-MSU bias coming out of espn.
I wouldn't argue too much if the selection committee gave dook the last #1. But MSU's resume is better than any of the big east teams. And mempis isn't even in the conversation.
The thing that jumps out to me with this bracket is how putting Mich St on the 1 line affects the locations. I'm in Dayton and was expecting to see Louisville and Pitt next weekend. And then there's a ripple effect, because Pitt has to go to Philly now, Nova doesn't get to play in Philly. There's other examples but I think you get the idea.
MSU's resume is better than any of the Big East teams? If we're talking about Syracuse and West Virginia, I agree. If you're talking about the big 3, you're high.
Sean -
Skipping over teams in the standings has been done several times. I remember 11-7 Northern Iowa going over 12-6 Missouri State, and 6-10 Florida State going over 7-9 Wake Forest. On top of that, the Big Ten doesn't even play a balanced schedule so 10-8 isn't necessarily even better than 9-9 in conference.
If PSU or MN is left out of the field, they will only have themselves to blame. PSU lost to a terrible Iowa squad just last week and Minnesota blew a 12 point second half lead to Michigan. I think MN gets in because they played some tough OOC teams, and PSU didn't. PSU didn't beat one OOC team currently in the field. MN beat three. And, each team performed relatively the same in conference.
JGibson- Interesting stuff.
Given that there are 11 teams in the Big Ten, that should mean that each team plays the other 10 teams once, and then they play 8 of the 10 teams a 2nd time. Correct me if I'm wrong on this. So there's 2 teams(let's say it's fairly random) that any given team will only play once. Doesn't that make for a more even SOS in-conference than say, the Big East? With 16 teams, they would only play 3 teams at random twice, which may be the 3 at the top or the 3 at the bottom. It seems like it'd be hard to argue that there would be more than a 1 win difference between two equal teams in the Big Ten.
Looks good, I will gladly take a 4 seed. I just hope they don't ship my Noles out to Boise, I'd rather stay in a warm climate, Miami perhaps? BTW, mark this prediction: the NCAA still hates us for the mascot thing, etc. so don't be surprised if FSU ends up being a surprisingly lower seed, like a 6. Either way, I'm just happy to be there!
Fsu could get still get lucky with Miami, but odds are 4s and 5s are going out west.
"Minnesota also did not lose to a team lower than 76 RPI, I think I read that here...yet Penn State lost to several teams well below 125 rpi. Penn State had their chance to sew up a bid last weekend, but lost to lowly Iowa. The Gophers aren't a great team, but deserve to be ahead of PSU. And, their rpi is 25 points higher than PSU."
Dude, PSU has 2 losses to teams that won't make the tournament (Iowa and URI), neither one with an RPI up over 125. Minnesota has 1 loss to a team that won't make it (NU) and possibly another one (PSU).
Plus, Minnesota against the best 3 teams in conference: 1-5
PSU against the best 3 teams in conference: 4-3 (including 2 road wins, something Minnesota had a hard time doing). They are closer than you think.
i think purdue winning today makes psu's loss to them look better.
Matt Lion, very good points, got me on the 125 thing...I thought Iowa at least was poor going 4-15 in conference, but they must be getting some rpi respect. Anyway, I think MN and PSU should both be in...St. Mary's out...Creighton out..and just the three SEC teams. PSU can solve all this by simply scheduling OOC like they do in football. Play the best, and even if you lose, it's better than beating cupcakes. Their OOC was embarrassing this year.
"PSU can solve all this by simply scheduling OOC like they do in football. Play the best, and even if you lose, it's better than beating cupcakes. Their OOC was embarrassing this year."
Bingo, that's why my alma mater won't get their name called this year. The margin for error was too slim after the OOC. If we had finished 11-7 in conference instead of 10-8, things would look a lot different.
The last time we actually made the tournament (2001) we beat Kentucky and Temple OOC and played a good Pitt team... maybe next year, we'll try something like that.
Hey, in football, we start a home and home with Alabama in 2 years... so that's something.
@3:55
Pitt could still end up in Dayton because it is a little closer than Philly, and Pitt has the preference in this bracket. I am of the opinion though that if two places are about the same distance away, they could go either way, and Mich St's closest site is by far Dayton
i don't know what's worse...penn state's ooc football schedule or ooc bball schedule. football played coastal carolina last year. hahahaha. and the bball ooc schedule was laughable when it was released this past august. i love hearing dechellis's excuse: "well, we thought those teams were going to be better with returning players." new jersey tech, new hampshire? come on ed, you are terrible. go back to east tenn. state. PLEASE. I love penn state but i could care less about the football team. i like the bball team much more.
Michigan St will not be a number 1 seed that is stupid. Uconn will get it before them.
"i don't know what's worse...penn state's ooc football schedule or ooc bball schedule. football played coastal carolina last year."
PSU also played Oregon State (who almost won the Pac-10).
This isn't a football board though... so I'll stop the football talk...
even though psu ooc is bad, there wins still equal the one big win minny had. also they are better that creighton and st.marys. I also think they should leap frog Maryland who was under.500 in conference.
From mhenry:
The NCAA Selection Committe says: They will evaluate the "who" and "where." Lets help them out shall we? I ve taken the "who" and done this: a win over a top 25 RPI earns you 5 pts-Top50=3 pts-Top 100 Earns you 1 point. The "where" is taken into account by giving 5 pts for winning on the road against a top 25-3 for a top 50, and 1 for a top 100. Here is the shakedown:
1 ) Penn State 35 Points
2 ) Minnesota 26 Points
3 ) Wisconsin 24 Points
4 ) Arizona 22 Points
5 ) Creighton 18 Points
6 ) Maryland 17 Points
7 ) San Diego St 16 Points
8 ) St Mary's 7 Points
#1's are UConn, Pitt, UNC, and Louisville. Can't believe they took 3 from the Big East.
arizona...bullshit...talk about politics
Big Ten is already getting pounded on the seeds. Who did Arizona replace? Ugh.
Arizona makes it 25 in a row!
Easy road to the Sweet 16, too. Utah is going down, and Wake doesn't have a prayer if Jordan Hill heals up.
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