Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - March 10

Just over a week ago, we were the first major bracketology site to put St. Mary's back in the field - as the automatic bid out of the WCC. We did so because of the news of Patty Mills' anticipated return, and because of the Gaels' chances - we thought - to beat Gonzaga in the WCC final with a healthy Mills in the lineup. Our projection looked good for a while - Mills came back in time for the WCC semis and St. Mary's beat Portland to earn a spot in the final. And then last night happened. The Gaels got absolutely beat down by Gonzaga in Vegas, and Mills, who didn't play all that well against Portland either, went 2-for-16 from the floor and was a total non-factor.

So, St. Mary's is out now, right?

Not yet.

We are sticking with the Gaels for at least one more day. We still like their OOC wins against fellow bubble teams Providence and San Diego State and their Bracketbuster win over Utah State. We also think there's a slight chance the committee takes a flier on them based on how they played early in the year before Mills got hurt and, potentially, based on how Mills looks against Eastern Washington on Friday. We bumped the Gaels down to a 13 seed in today's bracket, which means they are very, very thin ice. If there are any other mid-major bid stealers (Cleveland State tonight?) or if there are any other upsets in the big conference tournies, St. Mary's will be the first team to go. For the next few hours, though, they're (barely) safe.

In other action last night, Siena won the MAAC tournament by beating Niagara, VCU crushed George Mason to win the Colonial title, and Chattanooga (Chattanooga?!) upset Charleston to win the Southern title and a spot in the Play-In Game against Alabama State.

There will be three more automatic bids awarded tonight - Butler hosts Cleveland State in the Horizon final (see below for a full preview of the game), top-seeded Western Kentucky faces sixth-seeded South Alabama in the Sun Belt final, and top-seeded North Dakota State faces third-seeded Oakland in the Summit final.

Bracket Breakdown
In This Bracket

Chattanooga

Out This Bracket
Charleston

Last Four In
Providence, Creighton, New Mexico, St. Mary's

Last Four Out
Minnesota, Florida, San Diego State, Maryland

Next Four Out
Auburn, Rhode Island, Miami (FL), UNLV

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (8), Big Ten (7), ACC (6), Big XII (6), Pac-10 (5), MWC (3), SEC (3), A-10 (2), MVC (2), WCC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, Marquette, West Virginia, Providence

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - Radford

Big Ten - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State

Big XII - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Big West - Cal State Northridge

Colonial - VCU

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Buffalo

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Northern Iowa, Creighton

MWC - Utah, BYU, New Mexico

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - LSU, Tennessee, South Carolina

Southern - Chattanooga

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Connecticut, Oklahoma

The 2s
Louisville, Michigan State, Duke, Memphis

The 3s
Wake Forest, Villanova, Kansas, Washington

The 4s
Florida State, Missouri, Xavier, UCLA

The 5s
Gonzaga, Syracuse, Illinois, Clemson

The 6s
Marquette, Butler, Arizona State, Purdue

The 7s
California, Utah, Texas, LSU

The 8s
BYU, Tennessee, West Virginia, Ohio State

The 9s
Texas A&M, Dayton, Boston College, Wisconsin

The 10s
Michigan, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Arizona

The 11s
South Carolina, Providence, Creighton, Siena

The 12s
New Mexico, Utah State, Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky

The 13s
St. Mary's, VCU, Buffalo, Binghamton

The 14s
Weber State, North Dakota State, American, Stephen F. Austin

The 15s
Cornell, East Tennessee State, Robert Morris, Morgan State

The 16s
Cal State Northridge, Morehead State, Radford, Chattanooga (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket coming soon...)

Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

Congratulations to DePaul, for winning their first Big East game. I can't say I didn't see this coming though.

Will Cinci even make the NIT still?

DBATL said...

As if no-one saw this -- as if Cinci was actually playing well -- but, still, DAAAMMMNN...

Good job DePaul. I guess.

DBATL said...

So I guess the real question is, when you are DePaul, and 0-16, and you just win your first and likely only league game of the season, do you rush the floor? Is it even possible to rush the floor at 2PM on a Tuesday? Seems like there are probably numerous Man-Rules firmly against it, but it is not like DePaul is going to get many chances.

DBATL said...

I have a great mental image of DePaul rushing the floor -- all 3 fans who made the trip from Chicago, 1 player's grandma and some homeless guy they found under the bleachers. I guess the issue is rather irrelevant since likely no-one would even realize that the floor was rushed.

Anonymous said...

They were actually 0-18...

DBATL said...

Meanwhile, my Hoyas are on pace for a riveting 40-32 victory over St. Johns. 5 minutes gone and the score is a wild 5-4. WooHoo. I am left wondering is the defense in the Big East really that good, or will the various Big East teams just get lit up like Christmas trees against a team like Gonzaga that actually can make their shots?

Anonymous said...

This is why the Big East did the right thing inviting all 16 teams to the Tournament.

DBATL said...

Right ... 0-18. My bad. God that is almost unbelievably bad. Man-Laws be damned. Floor here we come.

Anonymous said...

The Depaul win really hurt's Providence's chances of getting an at-large assuming they don't beat Louisville....

Anonymous said...

Will there be a printable bracket today?

Free Sports Betting said...

I can't believe DePaul won today. 0-18 in the Big East with the win!

Anonymous said...

So if DePaul won the Big East tournament, where the HELL would they be seeded?

Anonymous said...

They will not win the Big East Tournament that is just obsurd.

Bracketology 101 said...

DePaul's win is a nice story, but it's bad news for Providence. Instead of playing Cincinnati in the their first Big East game, the Friars now play a team that will do nothing for their resume (and will probably lower their RPI).

Anonymous said...

POP! Georgetown's small bubble chance just went out the door? B101 Welcome to the NIT G-Town?

Anonymous said...

Shame the first round of the Big East Tournament isn't televised.

Anonymous said...

You mean the Big Least Tourney, rather watch the ACC or Big Ten

Anonymous said...

Meanwhile, my Hoyas are on pace for a riveting 40-32 victory over St. Johns. 5 minutes gone and the score is a wild 5-4. WooHoo. I am left wondering is the defense in the Big East really that good, or will the various Big East teams just get lit up like Christmas trees against a team like Gonzaga that actually can make their shots?

Bet you wish Georgetown would have won a "riveting" 40-32 matchup

Anonymous said...

So if DePaul won the Big East tournament, where the HELL would they be seeded?
They would have 13 wins vs 23 losses, and 0 conference wins... i would think the play in game

Anonymous said...

When are you guys doing a printable bracket?

Anonymous said...

I don't think that DePaul would be in the play-in game (and I know this is absurd), because they would at least have several nice conference wins from the tournament. I'd guess a 14 or 15 seed - remember that Georgia received a 14 seed last year.

Anonymous said...

By several, you must mean 3 at the most, and georgia was not o-fer the conference

Anonymous said...

2008 georgia was 17-16 as opposed to 13-23, and was 4-12 as opposed to 0-18

Anonymous said...

Notre Dame back in the field?

Bracketology 101 said...

Irish = Last Four Out

Just kidding.

pat said...

Ok, I'm not very smart with this stuff; but, Kansas State has a terrible out of conference record but good conference record. They defeat both Texas and Texas A&M in Austin and College Station. They finish ahead of these teams in the standings of the Big 12. Texas and A&M seem to be a lock to get in and K-State is not considered. Does K-state replace Texas (If Texas beats Colorado) when they beat them again on Thursday??

DBATL said...

@4:34
Bet you wish Georgetown would have won a "riveting" 40-32 matchup.
_____
Um, well, yes.

Anonymous said...

pat, what do you mean by Kansas State replacing Texas? Texas has a much better OOC record than K-State.

Anonymous said...

That would be an interesting case if K-State beat Texas again...then again the only reason they're 9-7 is because they got 2 games vs. Colorado and 2 games vs. Iowa State.

They also lost to Iowa, Kentucky, and OREGON!

Anonymous said...

I have to ask, is there a more hideously ugly mascot than the Butler Bulldog?

Anonymous said...

i know you have talked a lot about the big ten tournament but i have one question. does penn state have to win 1 or 2 games? the closer it gets to the tournament, the more people on tv are saying penn state needs 2 games. if they only win 1 game, what are their chances (in percent form)?

Dan Young said...

Chris- this week is your Ramadan-I will call in a bomb threat to get you out of Bob's meeting tomorrow. You belong in front of a TV, not in a summer reading debate.

MattLion said...

Cleveland State = bid stealer.

They are actually a considerably more athletic team than Butler, they could be a pesky 12/13/14.

Anonymous said...

Cleveland State 57 Butler 54

UH-OH!!!

Dan said...

Cleveland State as a pesky 12/13/14? Absolutely. Just ask Syracuse.

Anonymous said...

I would assume CSU would be a 12 or the best 13 on the board. They will be a nightmare with the right matchup, just like Siena and Vandy last year.

Anonymous said...

POP POP POP

Bracketology 101 said...

Cleveland State's going to be a 12 in tomorrow's bracket.

Bracketology 101 said...

Dan - are you saying that Championship Week is more important than the themes presented in "Tuesdays With Morrie?" I refuse to believe this.

Anonymous said...

Can you guys tell me why the heck Clemson is a 4 and FSU is a 5 in almost everyone's bracket?

FSU has an even overall record, a better conference record, a better OOC schedule, and BEAT CLEMSON TWICE.



What am I missing here exactly?

Bracketology 101 said...

To be honest, we have no idea why Clemson is ahead of FSU in most brackets. The 'Noles swept the Tigers head-to-head, they have two more Top 50 wins, a better OOC resume, a better conference record, and a better record in their last 10 games (7-3 vs. 5-5). Seems like a pretty cut-and-dry case to us, too.

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