Monday, January 12, 2009

Bracketology 101's Field of 65 - Jan. 12

There wasn't too much change in the bracket this week in terms of which teams made the field. LSU and BC each suffered two losses this week, so they were replaced with Arizona and Washington. The battle for the ACC regular season title is looking like just as good of a battle as we are seeing in the Big East, with four solid teams (Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson) having a chance at it. Wake Forest proved that they are for real with their win over UNC. Clemson has the easiest road since they only have to play Duke, UNC, Miami (who they already beat), and Maryland once.

A recurring theme from our early season brackets has been the Big 6 dominance. This week, the major conferences have 31 out of 34 at-large bids and it's tough to envision scenarios in which this will change. The MWC is looking like the best of the mid-majors and has the best chance at three bids. The A-10 and WCC look like they will both max out at two bids. Butler and Memphis will likely have at-large profiles come season's end, but they will both be heavy favorites to win their conference tournies since they will have to be beaten on their home court (assuming Butler wins the regular season). The Colonial and MVC, who have earned multiple bids in recent years, are both on a one bid track. Utah State also is worth keeping on eye on out in the WAC. If they can manage to get through conference play with only two or three losses and pick up a quality win in their BracketBuster game, then they may warrant an at-large if they need it.

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Bracket Breakdown
In This Week
Washington, Arizona, Miami (OH), Weber State, Long Beach State, Binghamton, American

Out This Week
LSU, Boston College, Buffalo, Portland State, Pacific, Vermont, Lehigh

Last Four In
Washington, Kentucky, Arizona, Dayton

Last Four Out
Oklahoma State, Boston College, Missouri, South Carolina

Next Four Out
Stanford, San Diego State, Penn State, Boise State

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Conference Breakdown
Big East (9), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big XII (5), Pac-10 (5), SEC (4), A-10 (2), MWC (2), WCC (2)

America East - Binghamton

ACC - Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami (FL), Maryland, Florida State

Atlantic Sun - East Tennessee State

A-10 - Xavier, Dayton

Big East - Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova

Big Sky - Weber State

Big South - VMI

Big Ten - Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue

Big XII - Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - George Mason

Conference USA - Memphis

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Cornell

MAAC - Siena

MAC - Miami (OH)

MEAC - Hampton

MVC - Illinois State

MWC - UNLV, BYU

Northeast - Robert Morris

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - California, UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Arizona

Patriot - American

SEC - Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky

Southern - Davidson

Southland - Stephen F. Austin

Summit - North Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

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The Seeds
The 1s
Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Duke, Oklahoma

The 2s
Connecticut, Michigan State, Clemson, North Carolina

The 3s
California, Texas, Syracuse, Notre Dame

The 4s
Georgetown, Xavier, UCLA, Marquette

The 5s
Minnesota, Louisville, Arizona State, Michigan

The 6s
Butler, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Arkansas

The 7s
Tennessee, Ohio State, Illinois, Baylor

The 8s
Purdue, West Virginia, Memphis, Miami (FL)

The 9s
UNLV, St. Mary's, Davidson, Kansas

The 10s
Villanova, Texas A&M, Florida, Maryland

The 11s
BYU, Florida State, Washington, Kentucky

The 12s
Arizona, Utah State, Dayton, Illinois State

The 13s
Western Kentucky, George Mason, Siena, VMI

The 14s
Miami (OH), Stephen F. Austin, Long Beach State, Weber State

The 15s
North Dakota State, Binghamton, East Tennessee State, Cornell

The 16s
Morehead State, American, Robert Morris, Hampton (Play-In Game), Alabama State (Play-In-Game)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)


Questions? Comments? E-mail Bracketology 101 at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com

5 comments:

Snapple said...

I'm the guy who asked what would happen if Illinois State ran the table. Thanks for answering my query, but hehe, so much for the Redbirds. I can understand losing to Bradley but Indiana State? Ouch.

I have a friend who's a Cal fan. There's no way he's gonna believe Cal can be a 3 seed right now. I think it'd be cool though.

Bracketology 101 said...

We admittedly have Cal high at a 3 seed, but right now they have the best resume and are playing the best ball out of anyone in the Pac-10. They have won 9 in a row, have an 11 RPI, and have solid road wins (UNLV, Utah, and Washington). The Pac-10 isn't as strong as it has been in the past few years but the winner of the leauge will likely end up with at least a 3 seed come tourney time and right now Cal is the leader.

Paymon said...

Have you guys abandoned the projection/prediction method?

That's the only way to rationalize Wake as the overall #2, Clemson as #7, Carolina as #8, Cal as #9.

The Big East is certain to earn more than 2 of the top 10 overall seeds regardless of methodology.

Bracketology 101 said...

Hey Paymon...we haven't abandoned the projection/prediction method at all. We seeded our teams based on a combination of what has already happened and what we think will happen.

We know there are a lot of ACC teams (4) on the top two seed lines, but that speaks to the strength of the top of the ACC and a little to the weakness of the ACC bubble. It will probably be easier for the ACC to get four 1-2 seeds than it will for the Big East, which is a deeper and stronger league top to bottom. Also, keep in mind that based on our latest S-curve, the Big East has only 2 "Top 10" seeds, but Syracuse, ND, and Georgetown are seeded 11-13, so they are right on the cusp of the Top 10.

As for Cal, they are on the 3 line (as mentioned above) becaause they are the best resume of any team in the Pac-10. At the end of the year, whether it's Cal or UCLA, the Pac-10 champ will deserve at least a 3 seed.

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