Saturday, March 12, 2011

Bracketology 101's Field of 68 - March 12

Wow, what a day/afternoon/night! The buzzer beaters, the overtimes, the comebacks, the great individual performances...that 36-33 game (ugh). Here's a recap of yesterday's events and a quick overview of how we see things with just about 36 hours to go before the Selection Show:

Saturday Update
We have been waiting for the bubble teams to make their moves for a few weeks and it just never happened. Better late than never, right? Michigan State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Richmond (and St. Mary's) all won last night, and in many cases (Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech) the wins look to be bid-clinchers.

The hardest thing for us to do was pick the 37th an final at-large team from a pool of pretty ugly and very smiliar resumes. We said in our Friday notes that if Penn State beat Wisconsin, that they woud "likely" end up on the Last Four In line. The Nittany Lions held up their part of the deal, but as you can see in our bracket, we didn't hold up on our end. Clemson, not Penn State, is the final team in our field, as a result of the Tigers' blowout win over Boston College. The Nittany Lions may still be able to sneak in the field, even with a loss to Michigan State today, but we think they are still just shy of a bid heading into Saturday's action. Depending on how well they play and what Clemson does against UNC, they can get in. Right now, though, they are our last team out.

Big picture-wise, there are five teams in our bracket that we could potentially see getting left out - Alabama, Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, or Clemson. The three teams we think that have a chance for an at-large over any of these teams are Penn State, UAB, or USC. Obviously, if a bid- stealer comes out of the WAC or A-10 today, everything changes.

Some other important notes from Friday night:

- The Pac-10 results on Friday were a dream come true for bubble teams.

- There is still the chance for bid stealers out of the A-10 and WAC.

- Bubble teams need to pull for Memphis to beat UTEP.

- With ND losing to Louisville, there is definitely a potential opening on the 1 line. Can Duke get there if Nolan Smith is out? Can BYU climb back up? Those questions will get answered today.

This is our last bracket that will be released before our final Field of 68, which will be posted bracket on Sunday afternoon. We will answer as many questions as we can via Twitter and the comments section today and tomorrow. Enjoy Championship Weekend!

Bracket Breakdown
Last Four In

Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson

First Four Out
Penn State, UAB, USC, Boston College

Next Four Out
Memphis, VCU, Missouri State, Harvard

---------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Breakdown
Big East (11), Big XII (6), Big Ten (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), A-10 (3), MWC (3), Pac-10 (3), Colonial (2), WCC (2)

America East - Boston University

ACC - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

A-10 - Xavier, Temple, Richmond

Big East - Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Connecticut, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Marquette, Villanova

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Colorado

Big West - Long Beach State

Colonial - Old Dominion, George Mason

Conference USA - UTEP

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - Princeton

MAAC - St. Peter's

MAC - Kent State

MEAC - Morgan State

MVC - Indiana State

MWC
- BYU, San Diego State, UNLV

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Patriot - Bucknell

SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia

Southern - Wofford

Southland - McNeese State

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

SWAC - Alabama State

WAC - Utah State

WCC - Gonzaga, St. Mary's

----------------------------------------------------------------

The Seeds
The 1s

Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame

The 2s
Duke, BYU, North Carolina, Florida

The 3s
Louisville, San Diego State, Texas, Syracuse

The 4s
Connecticut, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Purdue

The 5s
Arizona, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgetown

The 6s
Temple, Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

The 7s
Xavier, Kansas State, Old Dominion, UNLV

The 8s
Utah State, UCLA, George Mason, Tennessee

The 9s
Missouri, Marquette, Gonzaga, Illinois

The 10s
Washington, Butler, Michigan, Villanova

The 11s
Michigan State, Florida State, Richmond, Virginia Tech

The 12s
Alabama, Colorado vs. St. Mary's (FF), Georgia vs. Clemson (FF), UTEP

The 13s
Belmont,
Princeton, Oakland, Kent State

The 14s
Bucknell, Indiana State, St. Peter's, Wofford

The 15s
Morehead State,
Long Beach State, Long Island, Northern Colorado

The 16s
Boston University, UNC-Asheville, Morgan State vs. McNeese State (FF), Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Alabama State (FF)

The Bracket
(Bracket courtesy Matt Reeves)
















Questions? Comments? E-mail us at bracketologyblog@yahoo.com or send us a tweet at twitter.com/Bracketology101.

323 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 323 of 323
Anonymous said...

Pac10 refs are and embarrassment

Bracketology 101 said...

VT's three best ACC wins (Duke, FSU twice) are better than Clemson's three best (FSU, VT, BC), plus their best OOC win (Penn State) is better than Clemson's best (Charleston).

Rainmaker203 said...

Clemson is the classic case of "Passes the eye test but has a bad resume." Should be one of the most interesting cases on Selection Sunday.

mattlion said...

"Yeah, if we start excluding 14-loss teams with no signature wins and 11-9 conference records, paired with losses to Mississippi, Maryland, and Maine..."



No one on the bubble is perfect, but an RPI in the 30s, numerous top 50 and top 100 wins and a top-10 SOS should be good enough in the field of 68. Especially considering the reason the committee said PSU was left out (unfairly) in 2009 was because of a weak schedule. PSU corrected their scheduling issues, played competitive basketball, won their share of games, and is finishing stronger than most of the bubble.

Chase said...

LAW OF GUS!

Bracketology 101 said...

The Law of Gus strikes again! Somewhere, Bill Simmons' head exploded.

Anonymous said...

if you watched clemson over the past 2 weeks, you know the committee does not leave out bubble teams that play like that. their objective is to get the 68 best teams and they will NOT leave clemson out. you can nickel and dime the numbers, but the committee has seen the same thing we have.

Bracketology 101 said...

Better buzzer beater: Princeton or Washington?

Anonymous said...

Glad washington won after that bogas call on their big man by those refs.
Thomas was an animal tonight.

Anonymous said...

Will I'm sorry but what is your definition of a signature win psu beat wisconsion twice how are those not signature wins?

Chase said...

Better buzzer beater: Princeton or Washington?

I'll take Kemba's leg breaker over the other 2.

Mike said...

Washington's was better. Step back with man still in his face.

AG said...

First of all this has been the most exciting Championship Week in recent memory. It should be obvious that college basketball has the most meaningful regular season in all of sport (dig at the BCS).

Based on all the chaos swirling around, its important to remember that the selection committee always ends up with a surprise or two. Here are some of the potential surprises I am going to be looking for tomorrow:

1. Georgia not just in, but as high as a 9 seed.

2. Either Villanova or Illinois are out. I *really* feel like we're underestimating how hard it is for 11 Big East teams or 7 Big Ten teams to make the tournament.

3. USC not even on the last 4 out.

4. Either VCU or Missouri State in. (I would have said Harvard but the committee seems to have a fixation on the MVC and CAA).

5. If they lose to Boise State, Utah State won't make it.

6. If Dayton wins the A-10 final then SMC is out.

There are times where I can't help but feel like the committee looks at the last few teams in and decides they are too tough to make 12 seeds so they just give them to mid-majors instead. Maybe the First Four format will change that but a major conference Cinderella just doesn't have that same charm.

Anonymous said...

Wait does the committee actually announce the first four out?

Chase said...

BYU - sup 4 seed!

Chase said...

Quick Update
Last 4 in: Colorado, Georgia, Saint Mary's, Alabama
Last 5 out: Clemson, USC, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State

Subject to change. Clemson's profile is really bad.

Bracketology 101 said...

The committee doesn't announce the First Four Out.

Best case scenario for BYU right now is a low 3. They could very well be a high 4.

Derek said...

I'm going to prove why Georgia should be in:

3 Top 50 Wins
0 Bad losses
46 RPI
40 SOS (102 OOC)
9-7 Record away from home

Compare it to:

TEAM A
2 top 50 wins
3 bad losses
RPI 61
SOS 90 (156 OOC)
10-7 Record away from home

TEAM B
0 top 50 wins
3 bad losses
RPI 53
SOS 72 (195 OOC)
6-8 Record away from home

TEAM C
4 top 50 wins
4 bad losses
RPI 73
SOS 126 (285 OOC)
5-10 Record away from home

Anonymous said...

Doesnt matter. BYU wont make it through the weekend.

Yeoman said...

Anonymous @8:41

A signature win would be a win over a team that didn't lose to PSU.

Anonymous said...

anyone know where we can enter our brackets to be graded on the Paymon scoring system?

Dawgola Tesla said...

Regarding shockers for tomorrow night, I think it might be Colorado OUT. The three wins over K-State and one over Texas looks sexy, but their 4 OOC losses against a 329 OOC SOS looks horrible. Plus, they only won 3 true road games all year.

Also, I wouldn't be shocked at all for St. Mary's to be left out for obvious reasons.

Derek said...

TEAM D
5 top 50 wins
6 bad losses
RPI 67
SOS 39 (63 OOC)
7-10 Record away from home

Anonymous said...

WOW AG

You may be wrong on almost all of your points. You must be an expert...

Georgia a 9 seed!!! What are you smoking because I want some of that

Nova/Illinois are locks

I agree with USC having no chance

VCU/Missouri St. have no chance of at-large after the great performances by bubble teams yesterday (Friday)

Utah St. is more likely in that out, especially with their bracketbuster win over St. mary's

I agree that St. mary's is in trouble

Will said...

I just wish people would stop using RPI AND SOS for those big 10 teams. Yes, the fact that they have 14 losses AND a top 40 RPI means that they had a hard SOS. But if you only win 53 percent of your games vs a hard SOS< you normally don't deserve to be in.

Will said...

Penn State has now won 14 of their last 27... GREAT FINISH!

Mike said...

Derek where are you getting your numbers? Im guessing that team c is alabama and team d is usc but i think but either you get up to the second numbers or they are outdated?

Will said...

The 3rd best 4-seed is a "signature win"? Duke is a signature win. Pitt is a signature win. Wisconsin is not an elite team, not a top 10 team, not a signature win. They have EIGHT losses...

mattlion said...

Will said...

I just wish people would stop using RPI AND SOS for those big 10 teams. Yes, the fact that they have 14 losses AND a top 40 RPI means that they had a hard SOS. But if you only win 53 percent of your games vs a hard SOS< you normally don't deserve to be in.



One year Georgia made it at 16-14 - as an 8 seed!

The Big Ten isn't god's gift to the world by any stretch, but 9 of the league's 11 teams are top 100 RPI outfits and that carries a lot of weight for any league that plays 18 league games. Some leagues (like the ACC) only play 16 league games, so you have some considerably weaker SOS numbers from those conferences.

Anonymous said...

@Derek

I am guessing team C is Alabama, which beat Georgia twice. No way Georgia gets in over Alabama (unfortunate because neither team belongs IMO)

Will said...

Yes. But using the RPI numbers for a team with 14 losses ASSUMES a tough schedule. If they didn't have a tough schedule they'd be firing their coach, not desperately trying to reach a .500 record since december 1st to reach the tourney...

Joe said...

Is San Diego State's resume really much better than BYU's?

I think San Diego State will be the last 2 but they will be in the Southwest with Kansas and BYU will be the 3 out West. Seems like the easiest way to balance the bracket

Dawgola Tesla said...

RE: Alabama vs. Georgia -- the fact that Bama beat UGA twice only means two nice wins for Bama. Are we putting New Mexico in because they beat BYU twice? No way. Not saying UGA gets in either, but remember, they compare TEAM X vs. their schedule, not TEAM X vs. TEAM Y.

(Just my opinion based on recent history...e.g. Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech from last year)

Mike said...

Team A is VT RPI 61 SOS 90
Team B is Clemson RPI 52 SOS 73
Team C is Alabama RPI 77 SOS 127
Team D is USC RPI 68 SOS 39

mattlion said...

Will said...

Yes. But using the RPI numbers for a team with 14 losses ASSUMES a tough schedule. If they didn't have a tough schedule they'd be firing their coach, not desperately trying to reach a .500 record since december 1st to reach the tourney...


Fair enough. I thought DeChellis should've been fired last season, now it looks like he saved his job. We'll be awful again next year.

But I ask you this... if not PSU, who? There are 37 at-large spots to fill.

Anonymous said...

If Grambling St. wins will 13-20 be the worst record for a tourney team ever?

Anonymous said...

Man watching Walker and Silva in Big E final is awesome. Two teams who could win the tourney as 3 or 4 seeds behind those 2.

Will said...

Bama. Georgia. VT. Nebraska(2 less losses, and more wins over solid tourney teams).

Will said...

No, a team played with 10 wins a while back, might've been oakland... Like 2004-2005 or something

mattlion said...

Anonymous said...

If Grambling St. wins will 13-20 be the worst record for a tourney team ever?

In the modern era, there have been 3 11-18 teams to make it, so they're close.

Mike said...

It was oakland

Eric said...

@Anon

Nope, I found this list of worse teams:

-36.0% - 1961 George Washington (9-16)
-37.9% - 1995 Florida International (11-18)
-37.9% - 1996 Central Florida (11-18)
-37.9% - 1997 Fairfield (11-18)
-40.0% - 1999 Florida A&M (12-18)
-40.0% - 2005 Oakland, Mich (12-18)

If Grambling wins this game, their winning percentage would be 39.4% for the year. (13-20)

Anonymous said...

Why is the list of tourney seeds/teams called an S-curve; What does a list of seeds have to do with the logistic function (function which produces an S-curve on the Cartesian Plane)?

mattlion said...

Will said...

Bama. Georgia. VT. Nebraska(2 less losses, and more wins over solid tourney teams).


I can agree with Georgia or VT for their bodies of work. VT also beat PSU in their head-to-head matchup at VT.

Alabama? Gimme a break. They lost @Ole Miss just like PSU did, and they're a below .500 team against the top 200. Did they have that "signature win" that you're so tied up about?

Nebraska? 2-10 outside of their home arena. No dice. PSU was bad on the road too, but at least they're up to 6 wins outside of Happy Valley.

Anonymous said...

@Anon 9:31

It's called an S-curve because that's the way the seeds line up so that it benefits the highest overall seed in the tourney. The overall #1 will be in the same regional as the overall #8, #2 with #7, #3 with #6, #4 with #5...however, I think that can all change a bit to make sure all of the various bracketing rules are kept in tact (conference affiliation, minimizing travel time, BYU's "no Sunday games" clause).

Anonymous said...

Well, UCSB is up 45-38 on another #1 seed (Long Beach State) with 7:58 left in the game.

B-Flo said...

Will BYU and San Diego State swap spots? Will San Diego state be a two now?

Derek said...

@Mike I use CBS' site for RPI; they seem to update it throughout the day.

Derek said...

I was just pleading my case for Georgia to be in. No other bubble team has a better overall resume than them. Zero strikes, no bad losses.

ClubMedLar said...

Will, what is Alabama's signature win then? An 8 loss Kentucky team at home? Anyone who thinks Bama has a better resume than PSU is certifiable.

Anonymous said...

the shocker tomorrow is how badly the MWC will be seeded...

SDST 1 win vs a ranked opponents

Byu has lost 2 games by 20 since suspension

Unlv has 0 wins vs ranked opponents

I see sdst 4..byu 5...unlv 9

Anonymous said...

At the worst those seeds above are all 1 higher.

Eric said...

@Anon 9:45

UNLV has wins over Wisconsin and Kansas State, both solidly in the rankings. And the Virginia Tech win doesn't hurt either. That's a pretty good set of wins.

Anonymous said...

Will what do you have against penn state I thought it was michigan you hated.

Bracketology 101 said...

It looks like SDSU will be a 2 and BYU a 4. Two blowout losses now without Davies will hurt the Cougars.

AG said...

My predictions are not based on what I thought should happen, they are just a list of off-the-wall things the committee could do that they will act like it makes perfect sense but will set the interwebs all atwitter.

MichigIN said...

Looks like Alabama State will be the sacrificial lamb from the SWAC.

UCSB upsets Long Beach State to earn probably a 15-seed.

Anonymous said...

man i hope dayton pops some big 6 school's bubble tomorrow. there's no way big east should send 11 or big 10 sending 7-8 schools.

Anonymous said...

Where are the spiders at with a win tmrw?

Anonymous said...

Is Duke a lock for a #1 seed with a win tomorrow now?

Dustin said...

I think UCSB gets a play in game. The difference between them and UNC-Asheville is very small. Could go either way.

Chase said...

Re-doing my bracket I pushed Memphis up to an 11. This puts Illinois as a 12. And the last Big 10 team in.

Anonymous said...

Illinois is ahead of mich, msu, and psu

Apissedant said...

Harvard has an RPI of 33 and wins against 2 teams headed to the tournament. They barely lost to Princeton... you really think the committee would show them no love?

Anonymous said...

b101

How can sdst be ahead of any of these teams for a 2 seed?

Florida/unc/duke/nd/texas

MichigIN said...

I'd rather have Harvard than most of these other bubble teams being discussed.

Will said...

Because U of M has 13 losses, and PSU will have 14 by tomorrow. They should not be in the tourney over 11-loss bama with 4 wins over tourney teams.

MichigIN said...

The Big East Tournament delivers.

Eric said...

Random non-bracketology question: Are there any rules in place against purposely missing a free throw? Like, could you hypothetically throw it as hard as possible against the backboard and hope to get the rebound? Just curious with the end of UConn/Louisville.

Will said...

Has to hit the rim, Eric.

B-Flo said...

Is it just me, but why does Lunardi have USC in as the last team in?

Anonymous said...

Tell you what Will. You can go create your own tournament, convince NCAA teams to play in it and you can decide to include whomever you wish.

Until such a time, the committee's opinion matters and not yours. Please learn to accept that.

AG said...

Right now he has Penn State as last team in, then USC, which basically means "if Utah State and Dayton lose, those are the teams whose bids get stolen." It probably also means that if PSU can't beat Ohio State they'll drop out of the bracket so they effectively have no shot at an at-large.

Apissedant said...

Will...

You're like a rabid Chihuahua. Stop yelping. Michigan and Penn State will be in.

Alabama has low odds. You know as well as everyone else here that your record alone does not determine everything. Otherwise teams would just schedule the easiest games possible.

Michigan's RPI is 30 spots higher than Alabama. They have 7 (or 8) wins against tournament teams.

You lose. Let it go.

BESIDES, Alabama is projected to make it as well, so what's the big deal?

Apissedant said...

Oh yeah, and an SOS that is 108 spots higher.

108!!!!!!

Will said...

And where is the evidence they won't side with me? All the other idiots on here with their michigan biases? Michigan is UNDER .500 in their last 21 games. Penn State has won 12 of 25. These are bad teams playing poorly on the whole, getting lucky at the end.

mike said...

Lunardi...
LAST BYES (avoid First Four games in Dayton)

Michigan
Michigan State
Colorado
Penn State

LAST FOUR IN

Saint Mary's
Clemson
Virginia Tech
USC

FIRST FOUR OUT

Alabama
Georgia
Boston College
UAB

He said Penn State and those above are all safe.

Apissedant said...

I bet PSU makes it. The win over MSU should makeup for the pathetic win over Wisconsin.

mike said...

So AG, i'm not sure what the hell you're talking about bro.

Will said...

We'll see what happens. I'm not as sure as B101 that 8-9-10-11 loss teams will be left out for mediocre 14 loss teams. We'll see.

Apissedant said...

In fact, I plea with the committee to drop Alabama to make room for PSU. If for no other reason than to see if Will cries... or his head explodes... something would have to happen and I want to see it.

Anonymous said...

"And where is the evidence they won't side with me?"

You can take my word for it, or it'll presented to you in about 17.5 hours. Your choice.

Anonymous said...

Ag
Two things
1. Lunardi hasn't updated his last four in since todays games so penn state will be higher
2. this isn't joe lunardis blog this is b101's so what does it matter what he says

Apissedant said...

Teams projected to not be picked despite 10 (or less) losses:

Vermont
Montana
Coastal Carolina
UTEP
Harvard
Fairfield
Cleveland State


I give up. The list is too long.

Your argument doesn't work well.

Also history shows the committee punishing weak schedules, as has been mentioned a million times. Ask Virginia Tech about that.

Anonymous said...

Will you're a fag.

mattlion said...

"Because U of M has 13 losses, and PSU will have 14 by tomorrow. They should not be in the tourney over 11-loss bama with 4 wins over tourney teams."

WILL - the evidence we have (on-court results) shows that if Alabama actually played PSU's schedule this year, they probably would've lost 16-17 games. Considering they couldn't beat IOWA, the 10th best team in PSU's conference (on a neutral court), and got raped by Purdue.

PSU has 4 or 5 wins against tourney teams as well.

All schedules and conferences are not created equal. Your argument has no merit.

Bracketology 101 said...

Boise making a run....

Bracketology 101 said...

7 Big Ten is a pretty safe bet at this point.

Chase said...

B101

St Marys has gotta be in trouble, no? Most pundits, sans Lunardi have them out.

Bracketology 101 said...

SMC looking better and better as the seconds of the Utah st game tick away.

Anonymous said...

The BE is very safe for 11.

Free throws must hit the rim.

Dustin said...

1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Duke
2's: Notre Dame, Texas, North Carolina, Florida
3's: Syracuse, San Diego St, Connecticut, Louisville
4's: Purdue, BYU, Kentucky, Wisconsin
5's: Cincinnati, Georgetown, UNLV, St. John’s
6's: Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Kansas State, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Old Dominion, Marquette, Utah State, Florida State
9's: George Mason, Villanova, Washington, UCLA
10's: Illinois, Tennessee, Michigan, Gonzaga
11's: Richmond, Michigan State, Colorado, Clemson
12's: (Penn State vs Virginia Tech), Butler, (St. Mary’s vs Alabama), Memphis
13's: Princeton, Belmont, Oakland, Bucknell
14's: Morehead St, Long Island, Indiana St, Akron
15's: St Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Wofford, Boston
16's: UNC-Asheville, Hampton, (UCSB vs UTSA), (UALR vs Alabama St)

AVOID FIRST FOUR GAME: Richmond, Michigan State, Colorado, Clemson
LAST FOUR IN: Penn State, Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s, Alabama
FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, UAB, Boston College, USC
NEXT FOUR OUT: VCU, UTEP, New Mexico, Missouri State

Anonymous said...

Utah St is a 7.

Anonymous said...

Dustin, I love Cuse, but have a hard time putting them ahead of UConn. Maybe Louisville too.

Dustin said...

Thats very possible, but if they all end up on the 3 line, Im fine with that.

Anonymous said...

Dustin, for the most part looks good. I could see Missouri dropping a line and...I don't know, maybe ODU passing them? I'd probably also slide down UNLV, they seem high as a 5 seed, but I guess I dont see anyone to slide up.

Other than KState's late run this year and the middle of the pack Big East teams, it seemed like the middle seeds underwhelmed this year. Bubble teams succeeded in the B10 and a few other places, and the ACC, B12, SEC and P10 were pretty chalky. It's hard to find teams to move up the ladder to the 5/6 seeds because they all busted as 3-7 seeds in the quarters/semis without much of a fight. Maybe Tex A+M?

Chase said...

The 1's - Ohio State, Kansas*, Pitt, Notre Dame
The 2's - Duke, North Carolina, San Diego State*, Florida
The 3's - UConn*, Texas, Syracuse, Purdue
The 4's - Louisville, BYU, Wisconsin, Kentucky
The 5's - WVU, Vanderbilt, St Johns, Georgetown
The 6's - Arizona, Xavier, Cincinnati, Texas A&M
The 7's - Kansas State, Temple, UNLV, Old Dominion*
The 8's - George Mason, Washington*, Utah State*, Tennessee
The 9's - Villanova, Marquette, Missouri, UCLA
The 10's - Richmond, Florida State, Michigan, Butler*
The 11's - Michigan State, Gonzaga*, Memphis*, Penn State
The 12's - Illinois, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Georgia, Saint Mary's, Alabama
The 13's - Belmont*, Oakland*, Wofford*, Princeton*
The 14's - Bucknell*, Indiana State*, Saint Peters*, Morehead State*
The 15's - Akron*, Long Island*, Northern Colorado*, Boston U*
The 16's - UNC-Asheville*, UC Santa Barbara*, UTSA*, Arkansas Little Rock*, Hampton*, Alabama State*

Last 4 in: Georgia, Colorado, Saint Mary's, Alabama
Last 5 out: Clemson, USC, VCU, Boston College, Missouri State

Anonymous said...

Solid bracket Chase and I agree with just about everything. I think Illinois is the shock of the tourney playing in a first 4 game.

Chase said...

I agree with Gottlieb.. just take Illinois out. They've been pathetic.

Anonymous said...

WHy does LUnardi have USC in and BOTH Alabama and Georgia out? What is he smoking?!

Dustin said...

Illinois' OOC win over UNC is still cashing checks, and neutral court game over the Zags is going to carry some weight. In conference splits with PSU, MSU, Wisconsin, and Michigan will also make sure they make it. Dont be surprised if they end up a lot higher than most people think.

Anonymous said...

The SEC pair is in a lot of trouble because it's unreasonable to put UGA in over Alabama, but Alabama doesn't deserve to be in. That really is what is killing the Bulldogs chances.

Chase said...

Illinois is much more 11/12 than 9/10. Guess we'll see in about 18 hours.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know if their are any contests anywhere where you can submit your own projected bracket thanks a lot

Dan H. said...

Lunardi has Harvard in his Next Four Out, and I do think a case can be made for them, though I by no means expect them in the bracket.

gophers888 said...

I asked the same question as the guy above earlier. Anyone know? Dustin, Chase, Will, B101???

gophers888 said...

meant the question by anon @1:31

Harvard aint making it. They'll probably get a home game in NIT tho.

MichigIN said...

What AG said at 8:48 PM has merit. Every year there are big surprises. Remember last year when Florida wasn't even on 25% of bracket projections (and those who included them had them at mainly a 12-seed) and ended up getting a 10-seed? Or in 2009 when Arizona was on barely anyone's radar and got the last at-large?

This stuff happens every year. I can't wait to see what unfolds this time. A little under 10 hours to go!

Rico said...

B101,

If Richmond wins today, could they move up to a 9 seed?

AG said...

Well at this point the bubble is probably closed, we just don't know who's in or out. So enjoy some awesome games today and get ready for the selection show!

DCDuck said...

B101, I am flabbergasted by your continued love for St. Mary's (CA) and their one lonely top-50 RPI win (home vs. RPI 23 St. John's). Their SoS wasn't particularly impressive (101) and they have the single worst loss of any team on the bubble (@ RPI 320 U of San Diego).

They suffer from "bloated resume disorder" as well, with not one, but two wins coming against opponents outside D1, and 10 of their other 23 wins coming against teams with RPI worse than 240.

VCU might have more losses outside the top 100, but they also have a pair of top-25 wins (@ODU, Mason Neutral), three top-50 wins away from home, six top-100 wins away from home, and are 8-8 against the top-100 overall. They also have a better SoS (87).

That is why I question why you have St. Mary's in and VCU isn't even on the radar.

Anonymous said...

Clemson Fan...
This is a crock. People need to get off the ridiculous RPI which if it was an Excel worksheet would have Circular Logic errors.

Clemson is the 4th seed in ACC.
- Beat BC and VaTech in regular season
- Blows past BC in tournament
(Va Tech gets schooled by Duke, needs a fingertip to beat FSU)

If Clemson is listed as a play-in team, then the "experts" do not know basketball.

MichigIN said...

Lol Lunardi has UConn as a 2-seed.

UncleBob said...

Harvard and St. Mary's over the re-hashed, also-ran mediocre Big 6 conference bubble teams that keep whining about not getting in to the tourney rather than finishing in the top 3rd of their conference or can't beat other top level teams even thoug they have better than average talent. Ala, Ga, PSU, BC, USC can't possibly make for a more interesting tournament.

Glen said...

Where is Memphis your bracket. They are in.

Kolt228 said...

66 out 68. Better Than Lunardi. Yea Me.

Jack said...

NCAAB is a business with a capital "B". Gotta spread the wealth. Even to the Pac-10. Let it go.....

Jack said...

NCAAB is a business with a capital "B". Gotta spread the wealth. Even to the Pac-10. Let it go.....

Anonymous said...

I can see illinois beating kansas watch out.im related to joe lunarti so its in my family blood

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