Here's what we're wondering heading into this weekend's games:Friday's Games
Will Harvard (vs. Penn) or Princeton (at Dartmouth) get caught looking ahead to their Saturday showdown?
Saturday's Games
Can Duke sweep North Carolina and win the ACC regular season title? If the Blue Devils win, is there any way they don't end up on the 1 line?
Will Michigan be the latest bubble team to blow their shot an at-large? Are the Wolverines safe if they beat Michigan State and then win the 4/5 game in the Big Ten tourney?
Would a win for Alabama over Georgia be enough for the Tide to hang on to their spot on the 12 line?
Can BYU overcome its recent distractions and take care of Wyoming at home to secure the 1 seed for the MWC tourney?
Is the Virginia Tech at Clemson match-up the biggest bubble battle of the weekend?
Or is Nebraska at Colorado?
Will Kansas win at Missouri to secure their 1 seed? Will Pitt do the same at home against Villanova?
Can Baylor take down a slumping Texas squad and once again climb back onto the bubble?
Will Notre Dame be able to win at UConn and stay in the mix for a 1 seed? How far would UConn fall with an 0-2 week and a .500 Big East finish?
Will an appearance in the Horizon final be enough to get Butler an at-large?
Is there any chance that Colorado State can pull off a shocker at SDSU?
Would Florida climb into the mix for a 2 seed if they can win at Vandy and finish 13-3 in conference?
Can Cincinnati complete a season sweep of Georgetown and climb above the Hoyas on the S-curve?
How high will West Virginia's seed climb if they complete a 2-0 week with a win over Louisville?
Will a bid-stealer come from the Colonial conference tourney?
Who will win the Ohio Valley, Big South, and Atlantic Sun championship games? Will Belmont or Coastal Carolina see their dream seasons end early?
If Richmond takes down Duquesne, is there any way the Spiders get left out at 13-3 in the A-10?
If Kansas State takes care of Iowa State, will they get this week's biggest seed bump?
Could Missouri State lose in the MVC semis and have any chance for an at-large?
Will a win over UCLA be enough for Washington State to climb back into the bracket?
If Seton Hall upsets Marquette, like they did St. John's already this week, would 11 Big East bids be in jeopardy?
Can Princeton win at Harvard and secure this year's first automatic bid?
Sunday's Games
Would a win over Wisconsin at home lock up the No. 1 overall seed for Ohio State?
Can Tennessee beat Kentucky in Knoxville and move into lock status?
Will Florida State survive a trip to N.C. State? If the 'Noles were to lose their next two games, would they get squeezed out of the field?
BC can't lose at home to Wake Forest...right?
Does it even matter who wins the Penn State-Minnesota game?
259 comments:
1 – 200 of 259 Newer› Newest»Carrying over from the last discussion, Michigan > Penn State.
Looks like Harvard (up 67-49) and Princeton (up 73-53) answered early. Could Belmont possibly lose to Mercer??
If Michigan loses to Michigan State on Saturday, will they have to win 2 Big Ten Tourney games to get a bid?
And Belmont is safe.
Not getting much attention, but tomorrow's Horizon League Semifinal (#3 Cleveland State vs. #2 Butler) is a very big game. The loser is pretty much eliminated from at-large contention.
would have to win the first game, beat one of the top 3 big ten teams Osu,Purdue, Wisky and then sweat it out. 50/50 chance
I care who wins the Minny PSU game just so that my gophers can maybe win a friggin game.
CSU's already eliminated from at-large consideration--they probably have been since the ODU loss. I suppose winning out might get them somewhere close to the bubble but if they win out they don't need an at-large.
I assume some of these posts are simply jokes. Suggesting psu and ok st have better odds than nebraska and uofm is comical. A pair of bad ooc records, sub 500 records, and being swept by other bubble teams is equivalent to begging to not be comsidered. Sub 500 conference records I mean.
B101: I was waiting for you to add This and more will be answered next on "As the Basketball Turns!"...
Nice lead in!
"If the 'Noles were to lose their next two games, would they get squeezed out of the field?"
Gun to your head... what's your best guess?
FSU is in. A 10-6 ACC won't get left out of a 68-team field. VT would've been in if it was 68 teams the 2 years they got left out.
if psu wins against minny how far in the big ten tourney will they have to go
Suprised B101 left out all the confrence tourney semifinals and finals today. One of the great tourney suprises last year Murray State lost today and ended their chance to be the automatic of the OVC. Tennessee Tech will play Morhead State tommorrow in the final. In Big South, UNC-Ashville takes on Costal Carolina and lastly in the Atlantic Sun Belmont plays North Florida who upset ETSU.
Morhead State, Costal Carolina and Belmont will be pretty decent favorites tommorrow, but anything can happen in conference tourney finals for these schools trying to go dancing.
¿Dónde está Will? ¿Por qué no está aquí? Pensé que habría más argumentos sobre Michigan.
What happens if Belmont loses today?
Belmont loss = NIT.
0-2 for FSU would mean last 4 in.
If Michigan losses today they would need to win 2 in the Big Ten tourney to get in the mix.
Well Tuesday's shalacking vs Ohio St certainly shut me as a Penn State fan up. But, the run isn't over.
If they beat Minnesota and finish #5 in the conference and win the 4-5 matchup (likely vs Mich St) would they be in? Seems crazy that a .500 BT record, a #5 seed AND a trip to the BTT semifinals would be left out?
As a BC fan of 25 years, I can say that, absolutely, we can lose Sunday. Same spot 2 years ago, we had to beat crappy Ga. Tech on Sr. Day and needed Rakim Sanders to make a 17-footer at the buzzer. Pray for us.
I won't be surprised if UNC-Asheville beats Coastal Carolina. Coastal's lost several key players recently.
Provided that Michigan, Illinois, and Penn State all win this weekend, what are the procedures for a 4-team tiebreaker?
Cleveland State is still on some First Four/Next Four Out lists. If they beat Butler they have a shot, but it is still a long shot. With the bubble being so weak, I wouldn't call them COMPLETELY dead yet.
"Provided that Michigan, Illinois, and Penn State all win this weekend, what are the procedures for a 4-team tiebreaker?"
You would take the 4 teams records vs one another,and rank accordingly. michigan would be 4-1 vs these teams and would get the #4 seed.
Michigan 4th seed (4-1 vs tied teams)
Illinois 5th seed (3-2 vs tied teams)
MSU 6th seed (2-4 vs tied teams, 0-1 vs #1 seed OSU)
PSU 7th seed (2-4 vs tied teams, 0-2 vs #1 OSU)
Losing to Wake Forest at home would be a tragedy. Even the 2009 Georgia Tech team is much better than this year's Wake Forest team.
Thanks Michael.
Going to be a hell of a weekend in the Big Ten.
Yes it is going to be a fun weekend of basketball. All the fun of talking about "what-if" can end and time for results.
Is Northwesturn on the bubble with 17-12 record, Also drexl 21-9 they beat louisville at louisvilee were they just beat pittsburgh
Northwestern needs to go 3-1 in the Big Ten Tournament (would include beating Minnesota, Ohio State, and 1 of Penn State/Michigan/Illinois/Michigan State) to even be considered for an at-large. They are pretty much out unless they win the Big Ten Tournament.
Drexel needs to beat VCU and George Mason to even be considered for an at-large.
Basically, both teams need to win their conference tournaments to get in.
Both Northwestern and Drexel need to win their conference tornaments to go dancing.
If the field had expanded to 96, what teams would be on the bubble?
Miami, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State would be locks, and Rutgers, Providence, Stanford, Indiana, Ole Miss and Iowa State would be sweating out the next week.
Wouldn't it be fun?
Would UNF be in the Play-In game?
Here is hoping the Belmont take care of business today... It would be a tragedy not to have this team in the NCAAs... if you follow Ken Pomeroy you understand why... they may play in a weak conference but they can play with anyone outside the top 10...dont be shocked if they land a 12 seed or even an 11 and win the first game with ease....
If Clemson wins today what else do they have to do and what would vt have to do after going 0-2 this week?
Michael for the btt penn state would be punished for playing OAU twice because may got lucky and had an easier schedule?
Even if USC wins at Washington today will they still need to win the PAC 10 tourney? And if they do win today will Washington still be safe?
USC needs to win the Pac-10 tournament to get a bid.
Washington is safe after their win over UCLA.
How many acc tourney games do Clemson and vt have to win assuming Clemson hangs on?
According to Pomeroy, Belmont has fsced the 300th best Offenses, and the 249th best defenses... Looks like their strength is not allowing the 300th best offenses to score very much. Yeah! They've played 3 real teams this year, and lost all 3.
@Anonymous...
They'd play again in the tourney assuming VT won the 5-12 game, and then the winner would need to beat duke, likely.
A-Sun expert here. UNF would be a lock for a first four game. But don't worry there is no chance they take down Belmont who has dominated the league with ease this year. Belmont is looking at a 12 seed with a win.
nope will, BC will be the 5 seed if they beat WF.
Belmont won't get a 12... They're projected as the 3rd 13 here.
Bama in with win over UGA today?
Belmont this year is almost a carbon copy of Murray State last year. Murray State went 30-4 and 22-1 in conference (including OVC tourney) against a weak SOS, Belmont will be 30-4 and 22-1 in conference with a win today. Both teams went 2-3 vs the top 100 with 1 sub-100 loss. Although it doesn't matter for seeding, Pomeroy thinks Belmont is significantly better; they're rated 24th, whereas Murray State was rated 50th last year.
Just like the Racers last year, I expect Belmont to be a 13 seed with a great chance of pulling a first-round upset.
Belmont-St. Johns would be interesting...
If 'Nova wins today, and ND, would ND move up to hte 1 seed over pitt, due to ND winning the reg season title?
If Belmont wins there is almost no chance they get a 12 seed. They'd be a 13. At the same time, North Florida has pulled off a couple upsets to get here, don't rule them completely out. I'd be surprised, but there seems to be one of those huge surprise teams every year.
Is Illinois a lock after a win today or do they need to win their first game in the Big 10 tournament to be safe?
I think Illinois is a lock.
Is there any chance a Belmont or a Missouri state could end up in the 12-seed play in games?
We think 'Bama is in with a win over Georgia today.
Illinois is a lock.
Belmont's not going to get an at-large and we'd be very surprised if they got a 12. We think they're going to be a 13 (and a dangerous 13 at that) if they get the A-Sun auto.
@Anonymous 2:47
If for whatever reason Belmont and/or Missouri State doesn't win their conference tourney but gets an at-large they could very well find themselves in the play-in game.
However, they most likely need to get the auto-bid to make the NCAAs, and they wouldn't be in the play-in game if that was the case.
Only at larges can play in the play-in games at the 12-line?
If 'Nova and ND win today, we still give a slight edge to Pitt for the spot on the 1 line. The deciding factor would be how Pitt and ND fare in the Big East tourney.
If Missouri State does get an at-large, they'll almost certainly be in the First Four.
Yes, Will. The First Four games that will play into the 12 (or 11) lines are going to be between the last four at-large teams in the field.
So will Va Tech be in the first four out on your bracket Monday? That would be hilarious as they always find a way to miss the NCAA tourney
Clemson??????
Why does Pitt get the edge, if ND would be the regular season titlists, and have the win over Pitt?
The ACC tournament is going to ultimately decide the fates of Clemson, BC, and Virginia Tech. Right now, the pecking order is BC, VT, and Clemson - in that order. BC will likely be Last Four In on Monday and VT and Clemson will be First Four Out.
So if Clemson is the #4 seed, BC the #5, and VT the #6, provided FSU wins tomorrow, is there a scenario in which you think all 4 get in?
VaTech may very well be destined for the NIT for eternity.
In a perfect storm, could the ACC be a 2 bid conference?
There is a zero percent chance the ACC gets two bids.
So, going into the Big East Tournament, Cincy has won 5 of 6, U Conn has lost 4 of 5, Georgetown has lost 4 of 5, and Villanova (assuming they lose @ Pittsburgh tonight) will have lost 4 straight. BUT Villanova beat Cincinnati, Georgetown beat Villanova, and UConn beat all three.
Can someone work out the S-Curve landscape through all this? What will effects of potential outcomes of the Big East Tournament be?
Why does everyone think Mich St is safe? 3-9 against the top 50? Similar to Marquette, but Marquette has better wins and also hasn't lost to RPI 191.
Will @ 3:14pm:
One way to think about it is that the last two at-large spots in the round of 64 will be decided on the court instead of in the committee room.
They won't penalize one of the better small-conference winners by making them play an extra game to get in.
Michigan sweeps Michigan State!
Let the Michigan debate continue...
1. If Michigan State loses against Iowa/Indiana in the first round of the BTT, is there a chance they get left out of the field?
2. If Michigan beats Illinois and then loses to Ohio State, is it more likely that they will end up as a 12-seed or an 11-seed?
Lol, is there a debate anymore?
Those that predicted a pounding by MSU were 100$ incorrect. The closest MSU came was at 0:00, when the score was tied. Hard to debate that.
@ Anonymous (4:32):
1. If Michigan State loses its first round Big Ten tourney game, they're not getting in.
2. If Michigan beats Illinois and then loses to Ohio State, they'll be a 12.
Does Michigan get in if they lose to Illinois?
Why is Michigan State considered a lock? They are 17-13 with an RPI around 40, and although they played a tough schedule they didn't win any of those games except for Washington.
Also, since Korie Lucious was dismissed from the team they are 5-6. Is the bubble really that bad?
Let me correct myself. I know MSU is not a lock, but people are acting like MSU is in with a win over Iowa or Indiana. Not sure that should count for anything.
I think all the people that commented including bracketolgy 101 should go over all the bubble teams and lokk at it from all angles
@Anonymous 4:44
Yes, the bubble is that bad
I really think B101's "No 12-4 SEC team has ever been left out" rule is going to bite them in the case of this ass-terrible Alabama team. I know they just (barely) beat an equally mediocre Georgia team -- they looked terrible doing it. I'm not impressed and I doubt the Selection Committee will be, either.
I'll have my up to date 'bracket' posted after tonights game, and right now it looks like Michigan State might be on the outside looking in, but the bubble teams could honestly be chosen from a hat right now, and theres still a ton of games left.
I'm sorry, but I'm really getting sick of all the MSU backers out there. Who did you beat? Washington? Minnesota? Are those looking like Prime, Grade A wins right now? You have Wisconsin in OT. That's it. Your record is 17-13 and 9-9 in the Big 10. I get that they're getting love because of their history and Izzo, but take a team like USC in comparison (a team that is getting 0 bubble recognition). USC has wins over Texas, @ Tennessee, UCLA, and Arizona. Granted, Sparty has a few less bad losses than USC, but if USC wins tonight they're way closer to in than MSU IMO.
Anon 4:46
It's more about not getting a loss to a team that bad for sparty then it is getting the win.
Jake 5:07
You left out Illinois, another win against Minny and Penn St. Makes good wins close to one another and the bad losses do count just as much as good wins so sparty is above USC.
If anything, one can't help but wonder if that Bama win means they're both out.
Georgia is in.
Current Game thoughts:
BYU gonna beat Wyoming, but not neccesarily as impresive as they coulda been(they honestly should win that game by 50). Purdue is lost in the cornfields of Iowa. UNC Ashville up 7 on Costal C in the game for first auto bid. Would be really dissapointing for Costal C to go to NIT with 28 wins.
The Nova Pitt game is gonna end in the low 40s....
Early Congrats to UNC-Asheville for being the first team to punch a ticket.
Tough loss for Coastal.
Can we please stop hearing about Purdue now? Especially as a 1 seed. They deserve a 3 seed based on their resume. Do me a favor, compare their resume to Syracuse's. Be honest.
Florida/Vanderbilt is huge for seeding purposes.
If Florida wins out they can get as high as a 2, and Vanderbilt can get as high as a 4.
Before today, Purdue was easily 6th on the S-curve. Now, Cuse probably passed them.
Inexplicably horrid loss by the Boilers today.
Has Nova fallen all the way down to a 10 or 11 seed?
What did the loss today do for Georgia? Drop to a 12 seed?
I think they're still in the field.
Just some thoughts...
UF was never getting a #2.
No way FSU gets left out at #3 in the ACC, 10-6, and wins over BC, Baylor, and Duke.
Bama deserves to be in over U of M.
U of M showed me something today, but still needs to beat Illinois in the tournament, and maybe still needs to win the next one, since getting spanked by OSU on the day before the bracket is released isn't really a good final note.
@ anon 5:15
Minny and Penn state arent good wins
Agree with the comment above
@Will
If Florida wins out (@ Vandy and wins the SECT) and the MWCT winner is someone other than BYU or SDSU combined with someone like Texas/Purdue flailing again, they have a CHANCE.
I dont think Florida getting a 2 is likely, but its not out of the question. 14-2 in the SEC, a SECT title, and OOC wins over KSU, FSU, and Xavier is a decent resume for a 2.
Is Virginia Tech in? Dickie V may be eating his words, that guy is a moron
Marquette getting blown out by Seton Hall (down 14 just before halftime). How would this affect their tourney chances?
Does the winner of Purdue/Wisconsin in the Big 10 semis get a 2 seed and the Chicago pod (along with ND it seems)?
The Big 10 tiebreaker listed by Michael in an earlier post is incorrect. teh tiebreaking procedures have changed from teh past when 0-1 was better than 0-2. The new tiebreaker is winning percentage, so 0-2 = 0-1.
At this point, a 4-way tie (with a PSU win in Minny) in Big 10 works as follows:
Michigan 4-1
Illinois 3-2
MSU 2-4
PSU 2-4
Michigan is the 4 seed, Illinois the 5. MSU and PSU have 0 wins vs OSU and PU, 1 each vs WIS. Both swept by #4 Michigan. Both 1-1 vs Illinois. PSU's win would mean they both swept NU and Minnesota.
PSU will have swept Iowa though, and MSU is 1-1 versus them. Thus, with a win, PSU will be the 6 and MSU the 7 in the BTT.
Also, with an upset tomorrow, Wisconsin would get the 2 seed over Purdue.
B101 , IS Asheville headed to the First Four!?
UNC-Asheville is absolutely in a First Four game.
Is asheville first four for sure?
Butler might have done enough to get an at-large with their win tonight.
Georgetown looks like it will have Villanova on Thursday at MSG. Assuming they still can't get it together without Chris Wright -- where do they end up seed wise?
by Nova I meant UCONN
@ Will,
In reality neither team has guaranteed its bid yet, but right now, Michigan does have a better overall resume than Bama. Only 4 of Bama's victories have come against RPI top 100 teams, Michigan has 9 such victories. Eleven of Bama's wins are outside the top 200. Bama does have more high-profile victories, but they also have far more bad losses. It's far more likely that Bama needs two wins in its conference tournament more than Michigan does.
Impressive win for Florida @ Vanderbilt tonight.
@Will: If Michigan beats Illinois then they're probably in. But winning the next would seal it.
Michigan played well today especially considering that Morris and Novak had the flu.
State is in trouble. Everyone thinks they'll get in anyway, but I really think they need 2 BTT wins to have a chance. Which, they are capable of if they can get it together and play like they did in the beginning of the season.
Wichita State at large chances after thier loss in the MVC semis? Any? What about Missouri St. if they go down tomorrow?
Wichita State = dead.
Missouri State has a below-average chance.
"State is in trouble. Everyone thinks they'll get in anyway, but I really think they need 2 BTT wins to have a chance. Which, they are capable of if they can get it together and play like they did in the beginning of the season."
2 BTT wins and they only have "a chance." give me a break.
@mag900:
"2 BTT wins and they only have "a chance." give me a break."
Your convincing argument has changed my mind. 2 wins and they're probably in but I don't know if one BTT win will do it. And a loss sends them to the NIT.
The sad thing is Michigan State has the talent to win the conference and has played like crap the last month or so. I really thought after the first couple weeks that Izzo would find the magic he always seems to find.
Quick hits:
Wichita State has no chance at an at-large.
UNC-Asheville is likely going to be in a First Four game.
We would put Missouri State's chances at an at-large below 50% if they lose tomorrow, but there are a lot of things that could happen this week to change that.
It's hard to see Michigan getting left out if they beat Illinois in the Big Ten tourney.
Premature, but if Duke doesn't repeat its Cameron comeback against the Heels tonight, Notre Dame should be on the 1 line heading into conference tournaments. Here's just a piece of the case for ND over Duke (again, assuming UNC hangs on tonight). Anyone to rebut (aside from "no way two Big East teams get 1s; it's Duke!").
Duke 27-4
Notre Dame 25-5
vs. RPI Top 50
Duke 7-3
Notre Dame 10-4
vs. RPI Top 25
Duke 2-1
Notre Dame 7-4
Road/neutral wins (RPI, from best to worst, w/ * after true Road wins)
Duke - 19, 44, 55, 68*, 84*, 103*, 142*, 152, 254*, 302*
ND - 7*, 13, 18*, 35, 70, 146*, 158*, 236*
Names on the jerseys aside, how can Duke's resume even be compared to ND's?
Looks like Tommy Amaker proved me wrong. I'm liking their chances to advance to the Tournament now that they took care of business.
[Note: the comment that follows is said ironically and facetiously.]
Well, if you remember that one Maryland fan who came in talking about KenPom and how it showed that the ACC was awesome, it shows Duke at #2 and Notre Dame at #15 (and, lest we forget, Belmont at #24 and Maryland at #23), so of course Duke deserves a #1 seed, Maryland deserves an at large, and Belmont deserves a single-digit scene.
Knowing what we do about Texas, can we *REALLY* call beating them a quality win?
What Ab Cleveland St, B101?
Congrats on punched tickets for Belmont and Morehead St.
Also, Harvard beats Princeton. If Princeton beats Penn on Tuesday it forces a one game playoff between Harvard and Princeton again for the Ivy League auto-bid.
people can debate all they want about whether duke or ND should get the last #1 seed (with the other one getting the first #2 seed) but does it really matter when both will be gone by the regional finals?
mag900, zing! Guess B101 should just shut it down, then, huh?
Well Baylor is done.
How badly does Marquette need that win over Providence in the Big East Championship first round?
@AG
In my bracket, even with a loss in the first round, I still think Marquette makes the tournament. I could see them falling into the Last 4 In if they lose and there's a bid steal or two.
Even with their loss to Seton Hall today, I still have Marquette as a 9 seed.
Marquette needs 2 BE tournament wins to get in.
Marquette will be fine. Better resume than both MSU and UM.
How can Duke be a #1 when they didn't even win their weak conference?
I suspect B101 will tell you they're not a 1 (unless of course they project Duke as the ACC tournament winner and ND losing before the BET final).
Right now I have Notre Dame very slightly ahead of Duke.
Notre Dame also has a better chance to sperate themselves with more quality wins in the BET, but that means they have a bigger chance to flame out early too.
If someone thought I was wrong, I wouldn't be too distraight though. It is close.
What does UAB have to do to get an at-large bid after winning the CUSA regular season title today? Do they need the auto-bid, a finals appearance, or just the semis?
UAB is on the outside looking in right now, and I dont think they're close enough to make it in.
They need to get the auto-bid.
After their loss to San Diego State, would it take a run to MWC Final for Colorado State to get an at-large? (or will that be even enough...?) And how about New Mexico? Do they have chance in getting a bid if they make a run to MWC final as well?
UAB is in. Regular season title outright and a Top 30 RPI. Luckily for them because would *you* trust a Mike Davis-coached team to win the C-USA tournament on UTEP's home court?
"UAB is on the outside looking in right now, and I dont think they're close enough to make it in.
They need to get the auto-bid."
Is this a joke? Not a UAB fan, but most people had them in already, and they won on a day where most other bubble teams lost. Not a lock, but definitely don't need the auto-bid.
Seriously, I think UAB is an example of why RPI shouldn't matter that much... For instance, how does Temple have higher RPI than UAB does? UAB's best win is Southern Miss, for God's sake. (I think UAB is in, given how weak the bubble has been for this year. But I don't see them as locks right now)
B101 doesnt have UAB in right now either. I'm posting my bracket right now. I have them on the Last Four Out, and I dont see them catching up to the tournament teams, let alone USC and VT who I also have on the Last Four Out.
Does the Horizon have a chance of getting 2 bids?
Here's my 'bracket.'
1's: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame
2's: Duke, Purdue, Texas, North Carolina
3's: BYU, Florida, Syracuse, Wisconsin
4's: San Diego State, Louisville, Connecticut, Cincinnati
5's: Georgetown, St John's, Kansas State, Kentucky
6's: UNLV, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
7's: Arizona, Xavier, Missouri, Temple
8's: Villanova, George Mason, Old Dominion, UCLA
9's: Tenessee, Utah State, Illinois, Marquette
10's: Florida State, Gonzaga, Michigan, St. Mary's
11's: Clemson, Richmond, Georgia, Michigan State
12's: (Washington vs Colorado), (Alabama vs Boston College), Butler, UAB
13's: Belmont, Missouri State, Harvard, Oakland
14's: Charleston, Bucknell, Fairfield, Long Beach State
15's: Kent State, Morehead State, Long Island, Boston
16's: Florida Atlantic, Northern Colorado, (McNeese State vs UNC-Asheville), (Texas Southern vs Bethune-Cookman)
LAST FOUR IN: Washington, Colorado, Alabama, Boston College
FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, Colorado State, (Butler)
NEXT FOUR OUT: Baylor, (UAB), Nebraska, New Mexico
UAB and Butler are in parenthesis because they are projected into the tournament with auto-bids, so they do not need the at-large berths.
I know I am in the minority regarding several things (Butler, Michigan, UNLV, to name a few). I tend to downgrade Mid Majors more than most bracketologists would because the NCAA typically does the same.
Most people have Butler making the tournament even with a loss, to Milwaukee, so there is a chance. I don't have Butler making it without a win though.
Milwaukee has to win to make it, they have 0 chance of getting an at-large.
Dustin
How is BC a 12 seed and apparently your last team in, but Clemson is an 11 seed and is safer than BC (not part of the last 4 in). Is it Clemson's rpi of 63 vs. BC's 38?
Next, you clearly have a love for the BE, as you have Uconn as a 4 seed when they didn't even clinch a bye for the BE tourney and have lost 4 of their last 5. If Nova is an 8 seed, why wouldn't Uconn be somewhere close to that (maybe a 7, 6 tops)
Also, I am baffled at how you have Cinci as a 4 seed and St. John's, a game better in the BE (not to mention a better rpi and more quality wins), as a 5 seed?
Finally, is Marquette that safe to be deserving of a 9 seed? They are the 11th best team in the BE and finished the week 0-2...
is washington still safe? and dustin how do you have usc on the first four out b101 even said they need to get the auto bid is it their loss to oregon state? or their loss to bradley? or is it thier loss to rider? or TCU? or was it getting swept by oregon?or nebraska?
Re: Clemson vs BC
RPI is one part of the story, but the other part is Clemsons H2H win over BC, although it was @home.
Clemson also has a victory over VT (@home too.)
Clemson isn't 'safe' at all, and I wouldn't hold it against anyone to have them on the outside. The difference between Clemson (top 11 seed) and VT (second team out) is so small and is bound to change over the next week.
Re: The Big East
My 'love' for the Big East stems in their accomplishments on the court, nothing more. My bias' (if they show anywhere) are from the SEC and Big10.
I know I'm in a huge minority when it comes to Cincinnati but they have zero bad losses. If you compare them to St. John's, the teams split two games, and for every St. John's huge win, they have a bad loss somewhere. They aren't very far behind, as you can tell, and this will change when the BET starts as well. UCONN lost 4 out of 5, but they were all to tournament caliber teams, and they still possess OOC wins over Kentucky, Michigan State, and Texas. They also had arguably the toughest Big East conference schedule in regards to who they played twice and which teams they got at home vs on the road.
Re: Marquette
Sure they lost their last two games, but they still have a better resume than the teams behind them. I have them as the last 9 seed right now. They have wins over Notre Dame, UCONN, Syracuse, WVU. Who would you move in front of them.
I don't use RPI as a major indicator. I'll use it to break ties here and there, but the use of RPI is overblown.
my pecking order for bubble teams. all of the first 8 teams listed are virtually even imo. it will depend on the tourneys this week.
last 6 in:
Gonzaga
Boston College
Michigan
Alabama
Memphis
Marquette
first 4 out:
Clemson
Va Tech
Cleveland St
Penn St
next 4 out:
Colorado St
Colorado
Washington St
@anon 2:26.
Washington is in right now, but they have to win at least 1, but more likely two tournament games to make the dance right now.
USC is 10-8 in the Pac-10 and although they have some TERRIBLE losses, they also possess wins over Texas, Tennessee, Washington, UCLA, and Arizona. That's 5 tournament teams and a +.500 record in the PAC-10. They also have wins against teams not too far from the bubble like Cal, and WSU. But even with their good traits, their bad traits still have them on the outside looking in, and that's if we assume their are no bid steals from here on out. USC most likely needs to at least make the Finals to make the dance.
after looking more, i would put clemson in over memphis.
thats fair that they would have to make the finals i missinterperted im so sorry i thought by them being in the first fir out that they would only have to win like 1 game in the tourney my bad
@ Kate
What's your reasoning on Memphis being in? They finished 4th in the Conf-USA regular season and only have 1 good OOC win (neutral site win over the Zags).
Also, I can't even fabricate a case for any of the teams you mentioned to be better than Marquette.
Im also interested in how you explain Colorado St, Penn St, and Cleveland St above Colorado (and Memphis, since they shouldn't be near the next 8 out).
The Buffs even have the H2H over the Rams.
dustin
i changed to put memphis out and clemson in (see follow-up post).
marquette probably should be a couple higher, but have 13 losses, an RPI of 66 right now, and are 5-13 against RPI 1-100.
i don't think they get in if they lose first round.
btw - clemson's RPI is 54 right now.
i saw where someone posted 64 or something like that.
Why shouldn't Penn state be in the first 8 out they've beaten wiscy msu and ill and have only one sub 100 rpi loss
@kate
Out of Marquette's 13 losses, they are to the teams seeded in the following places (in my bracket).
1,1,2,3,4,4,4,5,5,6,8,10,(seton hall)
They should have lost 11 of them! The loss to Seton Hall on the road is forgivable (SH played everyone tough at home) and the loss to Gonzaga on a neutral court is probably the one they want back the most.
They have wins over teams seeded
1,3,4,6,14.
Thats a pretty decent resume compared to whats out there right now.
Dustin how can you question kate when you have gonzaga, michigan, and St Marys on the 10 line? In fact id say most of your lines are very very questionable.
The 1's - Ohio State, Pitt, Kansas, Notre Dame
The 2's - Texas, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse
The 3's - Purdue, BYU, Wisconsin, San Diego State
The 4's - Florida, Louisville, Georgetown, St Johns
The 5's - Kentucky, Vanderbilt, UConn, WVU
The 6's - Xavier, Villanova, Kansas State, Cincinnati
The 7's - Temple, UCLA, George Mason, UNLV
The 8's - Texas A&M, Arizona, Old Dominion, Missouri
The 9's - Utah State, Illinois, Florida State, Richmond
The 10's - Tennessee, Butler, Gonzaga, Georgia
The 11's - Marquette, Washington, Boston College, Michigan
The 12's - Missouri State, St Mary's, Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama
The 13's - UAB, Belmont, Harvard, Fairfield
The 14's - Oakland, College of Charleston, Kent State, Long Beach State
The 15's - Morehead State, Bucknell, Vermont, Northern Colorado
The 16's - UNC-Asheville, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman
Last 4 in: Michigan State, Clemson, Colorado, Alabama
Last 4 out: Colorado State, Virginia Tech, UTEP, Penn State
Next 4 out: USC, Nebraska, Washington State, New Mexico
Lurking: Baylor, Minnesota, Memphis, Duquesne, Oklahoma State, VCU
Season Ended: Cleveland State, Wichita State
@anon 2:55
The loss to Maine hurts Penn State, but so does the loss to VT (in front of them on the bubble) and the drubbing at the hands of Marlyand (62-39 is hard to wash off).
Penn State has no signature OOC wins (does Fairfield count?) and only 2 road wins all season.
They are not better than any of the 8 teams I listed in front of them, and thats even assuming they beat Minnesota on Sunday.
@anon 3:12
Id bet anything B101 has those 3 teams on the ten line (or better) in their next bracket. The teams they had in front of them had pretty bad weeks (Georgia losing to Bama, Washington losing @Home to USC, MSU getting swept by Mich).
I've given answers to what I've done, and Im asking for her reasons. Its possible I missed something, or its possible she did. Its even more likely that we just value different indicators.
I share 67 of the 68 teams Chase does (seeding varies greatly however.)
Only difference is he projects Vermont, I project Boston U.
Purdue isn't a 2 seed after losing to Iowa, let alone the #6 overall team. They'll have to get to the B10 finals for that to happen. I think Purdue would beat Syracuse; however, Syracuse has a better resume, profile and has amazing road wins.
Tennessee has to be penalized for having 12 (likely 13, possibly 14 losses) and won't be a 9 seed.
I'm a UConn fan and we're a 5. Not a 4. Marquette a 9? No. K-State a 5? If they get to the Big 12 finals. Cincy a 4?
@Chase
If you play the bad loss game, Purdue's loss @Iowa isn't as bad as losing @home to Seton Hall (like Syracuse.)
Purdue's best win (OSU) is also better than Syracuse's best win (Notre Dame).
In the end, though, I could see Purdue as a 3, and Syracuse as a 2.
You can punish Tennessee for having a lot of losses at the expense of telling teams not to have difficult OOC schedules. I believe the NCAA will reward them for their efforts.
They beat Villanova and Pitt at neutral sites, Memphis, Belmont twice, Missouri State, and swept Vandy.
I cant see them falling any further than a 10.
I've explained UCONN, Cincy, and Marquette, earlier.
Kansas State can fall anywhere, and they're an example of my favoritism to big wins and tough schedules.
They beat VT, Gonzaga, Wazzou, Texas and Kansas.
They could be a 5 or a 9 and I wouldn't blink.
KenPom has Seton Hall ranked 56th. In comparison, he has Georgia ranked 57th, Boston College 58, Colorado 60, Butler 61. They're a decent team. Iowa has an 185 RPI. BAD LOSS.
Tennessee beat Pitt and Villanova, I understand. They have bad losses. Charlotte, Oakland, Charleston, Miss State at home last week. No team with 14 losses will be a top 9 seed.
K-State has 3 top 50 wins, including Missouri who can't beat anybody on the road. Wazzzu, a fringe bubble team. VT, outside looking in.
Syracuse has 5 top 25 wins (3 on the road). Purdue has 2. Saying who has the better overall win is retarded. Boilermakers are a different team on the road. Same as Wisconsin.
How is the better overall win retarded? I give a lot more credit to someone for beating Ohio State (the best team in the country) than to someone beating Notre Dame.
Like I said before, you can have Syracuse 2 and Purdue 3. I think its a close call. I'd bet more people agree with me, but that doesn't make you wrong.
Kansas State beat Kansas (the other best team in the country), as well as Texas. They've proven they can beat the best teams, and they scheduled very tough. I like to reward that. I dont think they'll get a 5 (Im not projecting what the NCAA will do, Im saying thats what I would do if I were the NCAA).
We have a fundamental disagreement on what is important. Tennessee and K-State prove that. We can argue until we are blue in the face, but its not going to go anywhere because what you think is important isnt what I think is important.
Dustan, I guess the question is why do you put to much emphasis on that one win?
Purdue's two best road wins are Illinois and Mich St; 2 fringe type NCAA tourny wins. Cuse has 4 road wins over teams safely in the field (UConn, Nova, Gtown, St. Johns) plus 2 neutral site wins over Michigan and Michigan St. And that is only what they have done away from home. They also beat ND, Cincy, and WVU at home.
The one real bad knock SU had was the loss to Seton Hall, but with the loss yesterday to Iowa, Purdue doesn't even have the advantage in bad losses.
How many teams in the country have better wins than SU?
This is why how well a team is playing right now has to be a factor. Tennessee and Marquette have good wins, but also a lot of losses. How do you decide which matters more? I'd give the edge to Tennessee over Marquette because at least Tennessee beat South Carolina while Marquette wasn't even competitive with Seton Hall. I think Washington belongs in that group as well.
One thing I don't understand is why nobody is talking about how close to the cut line Gonzaga is? Their RPI is worse than some of the teams that are out and they don't have a lot of quality wins either.
Dustin:
Have you considered that picking Boston University as the America (L)East representative in the field would mean that BU would have to not only (a) advance to the championship game by beating Hartford today in Hartford, and then likely face Vermont, the regular-season AE champion at Vermont in the finals, but also (b) beat Vermont for the third time this season?
Last Sunday at Vermont, BU played without the conference's Player of the Year, John Holland, and junior forward Jake O'Brien (pre-season all conference) who missed the entire conference season with a season-ending injury. They came from 11 down in the first half to beat UVM by two in overtime.
However, UVM also was playing without two of its starters for most of the game -- soph guard Brendan Bald who missed the game and senior forward Evan Fjeld who was injured late in the first half and didn't play in the second half.
All three players returned for yesterday's conference tournament games. UVM plays Stony Brook and BU plays Hartford in today's semis in Hartford where BU lost 59-55 earlier in the season.
@Chase...
"KenPom has Seton Hall ranked 56th. In comparison, he has Georgia ranked 57th, Boston College 58, Colorado 60, Butler 61. They're a decent team. Iowa has an 185 RPI. BAD LOSS."
I see what you did there. Ken Pom has Iowa ranked 83. And Seton Hall does have an RPI around 100 right now. Those numbers are a little more comparable.
Is Michigan State NIT bound? Do you think Clemson or BC is more of a lock?
I really dont see how Michigan State is in the field still. But, whatever as a Michigan fan I am thrilled to even be in the conversation after starting 1-6 in conference, this team has grown up and should be a force in the big ten for a couple years to come. Hardaway Jr. is an emerging star and has been more impressive than Sullinger the past month.
"If you play the bad loss game, Purdue's loss @Iowa isn't as bad as losing @home to Seton Hall (like Syracuse.)"
SH is a lot better than iowa. SH has beaten alabama, stj, marquette and syracuse and has an rpi of 91. iowa has beaten alabama, mich st and purdue and has an rpi of 165. they also had loss 6 straight before beating purdue. losing to iowa was a horrific loss that should keep purdue off the 2 line because the other teams in contention don't have losses anywhere near as bad as that one.
We have BC ahead of Clemson. Both teams have three quality wins, but BC has the best win of the bunch (A&M), and two of their three quality wins came away from home. All three of Clemson's noteworthy wins have come at Littlejohn (FSU, BC, VT). Both teams' fates will ultimately be decided by who wins the ACC quarterfinal match-up between the two.
Michigan State will likely end up in a First Four game in tomorrow's bracket. The Spartans will have to win at least one Big Ten tourney game to stay alive and two might be necessary depending on what else happens across the country this week. The Spartans are one of many teams hoping for a bid-stealer-free week.
B101 I like your opinion of Michigan State, as I was watching the Michigan-MSU game yesterday the announcers were talking like MSU was a lock. I realize no one talks about it and says it doesnt matter, but IZZO's name alone might get them a bid, which is b.s. However, at least you acknowledge they are in some trouble.
"The 2's - Texas, Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse"
there's no way that texas is 5th on the S-curve. they have an rpi of 14 and have 3 losses to teams that probably are nit-bound -- usc, colorado and nebraska.
My bracket-
1 Ohio State Pittsburgh Kansas Notre Dame
2 Duke Wisconsin San Diego State Syracuse
3 Florida Texas North Carolina Purdue
4 BYU Louisville Kentucky West Virginia
5 Cincinnati Vanderbilt Texas A&M Georgetown
6 Missouri Connecticut St. John’s Arizona
7 George Mason Kansas St. Villanova
8 Xavier UNLV Old Dominion Temple
9 Utah State Illinois Washington UAB
10 Georgia Tennessee Marquette St. Mary’s
11 Florida State Michigan State Richmond Michigan
12 Butler Gonzaga Virginia Tech vs. Colorado Boston College vs. Clemson
13 Missouri State Belmont Harvard Oakland
14 College of Charleston Vermont Bucknell LIU-Brooklyn
15 Farifield Kent St. Morehead State Long Beach State
16 Florida Atlantic Montana Bethune-Cookman vs. Texas Southern McNesse State vs. UNC-Asheville
What do you guys think? The last 9 spot was hardest for me, as only 35 teams deserve single-digit seeds. I know UAB doesn't deserve that spot, but who else does?
Well, VCU is exterminating George Mason in a de-facto home game at the CAA Semifinals. Looks like Old Dominion is the bubble team's last hope.
VCU is about to pop someone's bubble.
George Mason was on a roll too. :-/
Texas can get a #1 if they win the Big 12 tournament. They beat Kansas and North Carolina on the road. Can somebody top that? Winning the Big 12 would mean 2 wins over Kansas. They have better wins than Duke, that's why I have them #5 overall. It also sucks that Purdue and BYU blew it this week.
Here's to Hofstra knocking off ODU.
VCU still needs one more win to pop a bubble.
Texas isn't getting a 1 seed.
"Texas can get a #1 if they win the Big 12 tournament. They beat Kansas and North Carolina on the road. Can somebody top that? Winning the Big 12 would mean 2 wins over Kansas. They have better wins than Duke, that's why I have them #5 overall. It also sucks that Purdue and BYU blew it this week."
they also lost to 3 nit teams. they aren't getting a 1 and they aren't the 5th seeded team right now (or even a 2 seed right now).
regarding your question about topping that, yes, pitt tops that. pitt beat texas (ouch) and a long list of other wins against ranked BE teams.
Tennessee about to get its 13th loss. A 9 seed it is not.
Any other bubble team fans irritated that VCU and UTEP get to host their conference tournaments despite not winning the #1 seed? Combine that with the fact that locks like George Mason and Old Dominion probably aren't ready for the intensity of facing a team fighting for its season.
For that matter, what is up with Oakland University always having to travel to South Dakota to play in the Summit Tournament? They're the #1 seed by far, and have a vastly superior arena than any other Summit League team.
@AG,
Definitely doesn't make sense, as far as the teams hosting. But at least Oakland is only in Michigan and not in its more famous locale in California--that would be a much farther trek.
@ 2:06
"About" as in one win away.
Will Purdue drop from a 2 seed? And could they fall out of the Chicago sub-regional?
If UK wins the SEC Tourny what are the odds of them reaching the 3 seed line?
The CAA tournament always takes place in Richmond... not necessarily fair. The conference commissioner uses the excuse that it is centrally located for a conference that extends from LI to Georgia.
How far does GMU fall in seeding for the Big Dance??
GMU probably a 9 or a 10.
Fairfield down 40-15 at the half???
Penn State's win at Minnesota pushes Michigan State to the 7 seed. Eeeek.
AG - That doesn't bother me at all. It happens all the time elsewhere. St. John's hosts the Big East tournament every year, and UNLV hosts the MWC tournament every year (other than the two years they tried it in Denver, which was a major disaster). Siena's been hosting the MAAC tournament recently, and the conference just lucked out that they were the #1 seed since that was sent a couple years in advance. And the Pac-10 tournament is always in Los Angeles, creating a disadvantage for the northwest schools.
@Conor
Beating OSU means more because they are the number 1 team in the country. Kansas and OSU are heads and shoulders above everyone else, so the teams that beat them get more than 'just beating a good team' boost.
Re: Boston U
I picked Boston to throw them a little love for sweeping Vermont in the regular season, it's a small gesture since as soon as that tourney is over I just add the winner to the pool.
@anon 11:02
Michigan St is in right now, but they are out if they lose their next game. If you think they'll lose their next game, then they're NIT bound.
I have Clemson slightly ahead of MSU and BC slightly behind.
@mag
Seton Hall is obviously better than Iowa, but if you take into account H/A, the disparity is almost non-existent, and the committee does just that.
@mike
If Tennessee loses, they'll probably slide down a little bit, but not by a ton. Its Kentucky.
what does everyone think about colorado?? 5 seed in the b12 tourney (ahead of mizzou) and a win in the first round over isu gets them to 20 wins and a winnable game against ksu (who they swept in the regular season). I know their non-con is terrible but they have made up for it in conference play, which should be good enough, especially this year.
George Mason's looking at a low 9/high 10.
If Kentucky wins the SEC tourney, they'll likely be a 3.
Will Tennessee be playing in the opening round at Dayton? This team will have 14 losses unless the pull off a miracle and win the SEC tourney. Frankly, I could see them losing to Arkansas in the opening round. If that happens are they NIT bound?
Will Tennessee be playing in the opening round at Dayton? This team will have 14 losses unless the pull off a miracle and win the SEC tourney. Frankly, I could see them losing to Arkansas in the opening round. If that happens are they NIT bound?
UK tops out as a 4 seed if they win the SEC tourney.
"Seton Hall is obviously better than Iowa, but if you take into account H/A, the disparity is almost non-existent, and the committee does just that."
the committee will NOT determine that
losing on the road to one of the worst BCS teams in recent years is the equivalent to losing at home to a top 100 team that has beaten several other single digit seeds. that's pure malarkey.
I can't see George Mason being a 10 seed.
Does Missouri State have to win the MVC Championship to make the tournament?
B-Flo,
Yes, they have no good wins. They beat Wichita St. 2x. That's it. NIT. Indiana St. is playing well.
MVC = 1 bid league. Even if Missouri State comes back and wins (which I doubt) i'll probably bump them to a 13. Don't look good.
Fairfield has cut that 25 point deficit down to 10 with 10 to play.
I understand beating Ohio State means more. But it's just one win and it was at home. Purdue has a better best win than SU, but I think SU has better wins overall.
B101
Do the Spiders really need one more win (in the first round of the A-10 tourney) or are they in no matter what happens?
Fairfield and Missouri State both lose, making potential first round upsets in the tournament lesss likely.
Neither has a chance to go dancing now.
Seeing top-seeded teams from 1-bid leagues lose in conference tournaments is disappointing. I'd rather the best teams on the season get in and make the Tournament more exciting.
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