Wednesday, March 02, 2011

B101's Bracket Banter - Wednesday

Bracket Banter is our daily open thread to discuss all things bracket. Readers can post comments and questions during the nights games, and we will answer those questions as the night goes on.

Wednesday's Games
Do you think if we started a rumor that the NCAA decided to go back to a 65-team tourney because of the weak bubble that it would have any legs? After last night's performance by a few bubble teams (we're talking to you Virginia Tech, Baylor, and Alabama) we wish that rumor were true.

The games in Bubbleville tonight are not as significant as last night, but there are still some important must-win games for bubble teams. Michigan State and Colorado State must take care of business at home against teams in the bottom half of their conference standings (Iowa and Utah), while bracket newcomer Colorado has to navigate through a tricky road trip to Iowa State (just ask Nebraska). The games for Michigan State and Colorado State are warm-ups for critical road games this weekend (Michigan and SDSU), while Colorado returns home for a bubble elimination game against the Huskers.

The other focus tonight will be on teams in the Big XII, MWC, Big East, A-10, and C-USA who have the chance to clinch at least a share of the regular season crown. Kansas has Texas A&M visiting, and if the Jayhawks can pick up a win over the Aggies and then at Missouri over the weekend, they are likely a lock for a one seed. BYU will be looking to secure the top seed in the MWC tourney and avenge their only conference loss of the season in their game against New Mexico. The other important storyline to this game is how BYU will play in their first game without Brandon Davies.

Pitt and Xavier can also clinch at least a share of their conference titles with wins over bottom feeders South Florida and Charlotte. In C-USA, UAB plays at Southern Miss in another key bubble battle. If UAB can pick up the road win, they would only need a home win over East Carolina over the weekend to clinch the outright regular season title. That title could lead to an at-large bid if they need it. If Southern Miss completes a season sweep of the Blazers, they will pass them in the bunched-up C-USA pecking order.

Elsewhere in power conference action, Duke and North Carolina will look to avoid stumbles prior to their weekend showdown in Chapel Hill, which will determine the ACC title. Clemson heads to Cameron Indoor looking to pull off the huge upset that would finally catapult them into the bracket, and down in Tallahassee, Florida State looks to lock down their bid by knocking off the Tar Heels. In Big East play, UConn travels to West Virginia and Cincinnati plays at Marquette. These two games will have a major impact on the final Big East pecking order and on which teams earn first round byes in the Big East tourney.

Conference Tournaments
The Atlantic Sun, Ohio Valley, and Patriot League begin conference tourney play tonight. Heavily favored Belmont, out of the A-Sun, will start things off against a Kennesaw State team they just beat by 43 points on the road. In the Patriot, top-seeded Bucknell kicks things off against Army as the Bison look to get back to the tournament for the first time in five years.

Also keep an eye on: Providence at Louisville, LSU at Georgia, Temple at UMass, Utah State at New Mexico State, Minnesota at Northwestern, Memphis at East Carolina, Maryland at Miami

103 comments:

Keith Waters said...

The ACC does not recognize a regular season champion, but does allow teams to hoist banners to that effect. You folks should know that.

Anonymous said...

After the last couple of nights, I would suggest cutting it back to 48 teams.

Then the bubble teams would be George Mason, Gonzaga and Texas A&M, which seems a lot more appropriate.

Will said...

FSU wins tonight, do they clinch a single-digit seed?

Will said...

I think everyone is just overreacting to the weakness of this year's bubble. When was the last time there was an exceptionally strong bubble? These are the 50th best teams in the country, they're going to lose a lot of games. By definition they are either not very good, inconsistent, or both.

Bracketology 101 said...

We agree, Will. Every year people overreact to the bubble. It is just amplified by the tourney being expanded to 68 teams and mid-majors like the MVC, C-USA, and the WAC having down years.

Bracketology 101 said...

Yes, Florida State would pretty much lock up a single digit seed with a win tonight.

Anonymous said...

Really looking forward to that FSU-UNC game.

AG said...

Its ridiculous how people overreact to the bubble but I don't hear anyone talking about reducing the amount of #1 seeds because nobody looks like a heavy favorite to win it all or in 2006 when no #1s made the Final Four.

But what is *REALLY* telling about the anonymous comment from 8:41AM is that he wants a 48 team field and STILL thinks Gonzaga is in!

Anonymous said...

Is it so quiet in here this morning because there are scant few bubble teams that can be talked up after last night?

Anonymous said...

was Michigan a winner by default last night with almost every bubble team losing, and PSU getting blown out?

Michael said...

Yes the weak performance by these other bubble teams help a team that has won 7 of last 10 and is idle until saturday. But make no mistake about it, Michigan still needs to beat MSU on saturday, but now maybe that alone would get them in instead of having to win 1-2 games in BTT.

Will said...

They'd still have to win 2. Winning one means nothing, because the only consequence is that they didn't suffer a horrific loss.

Will said...

Michigan has 12 losses, and no good wins. Minnesota has 11, and 3. Alabama has 10 and 2. Colorado has 11 and 4. Baylor has 11 and 2. I don't understand the fascination with Michigan...

AG said...

Will, if Michigan beats MSU, they clinch a first round bye in the Big Ten Tournament, therefore no potential for a "horrible loss."

As for the other 3 teams you mentioned, they all have much more severe problems: Alabama's RPI is in the low 80s and they have 5-6 bad losses. Minnesota has a losing conference record and lost all their point guards. Baylor has lost to every single bottom feeder in the Big XII and despite all their size and NBA talent they refuse to play like a team. As for Colorado...well, do *you* trust them to beat Iowa State tonight? I know I don't.

Michigan is young but playing extremely well and everybody knows John Beilein's teams overachieve in the tournament. Now if they lose at home to MSU (which I think they will because they can never guard Kalin Lucas) then this whole issue is moot. But until then, Michigan is definitely ahead of Baylor, Clemson, Alabama, Maryland, and whatever other sub-70 RPI teams you can think of.

Will said...

You really need a complicated formula to decide who is the better team? Yes, alabama has played a ton of bad teams, and not too many good ones. On the other hand, they have 2 good wins, and Michigan has none. Despite the problems of the other teams, they have compiled seasons superior to Michigan's. Also, Michigan has won 7 out of it's last 16 games. NOT A TOURNAMENT TEAM. They've also lost two out of 4. They aren't playing well, they're playing terrible teams.

Anonymous said...

Will, Assuming Michigan beats MSU they would be the 4 or 5 seed in the BTT and would play Illinois andd therefore has no chance of a horrific loss. Also Michigan would be 9-9 and tied for fourth in the big ten and winners of 8 of the their last 11 while Minnesota will likely be 8-10 and in 8th in the big ten.

Anonymous said...

Will, so OSU, Wisconsin, Illinois and the Minnesota team u believe deserves to be in the tournament are horrible teams? Come on. Michigan is finishing with a tough schedule and is winning games and finishing strong. 4-5 on the road in the big ten including road wins over bubble teams MSU, Minnesota and PSU and a non conference road win over bubble team Clemson.

Will said...

Interestingly enough, they'd still not have any really good wins, and they'd still have 12 losses. Minnesota is the superior team, no matter which way you twist the stats.

Will said...

They lost to Wisconsin, lost to OSU, and lost to illinois... They split with minnesota, so that cancels out. Losing to good teams and beating bad ones doesn't mean that you're good. Even if they win on the 5th, to give them 3 of 5, 6 of 8, and 8 of 11, they'd still have won just 8 of 17, and 9 of 19. NOT A TOURNAMENT TEAM.

Will said...

@Anon...
It doesn't matter. With no good wins, and what will be thirteen losses, they don't deserve an at-large bid. End of argument.

Chris in NC said...

Will, Michigan split with Minnesota and right now are the better team. It sucks to lose your top players, no doubt, but that's what happened to Minnesota and it's why everyone inside and outside the trailer park is kicking their rears.

Does Michigan belong in ahead of Colorado, Baylor or Alabama? Don't know. Maybe. Maybe not. I question whether ANY of those should get in. However, they are better than Minnesota they should get a bid ahead of them.

But rather than argue whether or not Michigan deserves the bid, why don't you toss out the names of the teams you think should be in. Not in ahead of Michigan or Minnesota, etc, but in period and out period.

AG said...

Its ironic that you have to twist the stats to argue that Michigan is "not a tournament team no matter how you twist the stats."

Of course Michigan has lost 9 of its last 17: they've played 17 Big Ten games and Kansas and have a .500 conference record.

Yes, Michigan wasn't expected to be good this year, which is why all but 3 of their games were on the Big Ten Network. They weren't spoonfed big time wins by ESPN who gifted Virginia Tech and Baylor Saturday night prime time home games complete with all-day nationally televised pep rallies against a Duke team that has been *SCARED* all season long of playing true road games and a Texas team with quite possibly the worst February/March coach in the history of basketball.

Anonymous said...

Will said, youre completely off base. Minnesota is god awful right now, they are in a complete free fall. The Big Ten is going to get six teams its that simple. OSU, PURDUE, WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN, AND MICHIGAN STATE. Michigan is playing its best basketball at the right time, and a sweep over MSU would lock them in, imo because the bubble is so weak.


Of course we dont know the results of the conference tournaments yet.

AG said...

As for "they have 12 losses" that's another dishonest argument. In this 68 team era, almost every bubble team has that many losses.

Boston College has 11.
Marquette has 11.
MSU (whose probably a lock if they beat Iowa) has 12.
Baylor has 11.
Nebraska has 10.
Colorado has 11.
Butler has 9 (of which 5 are to Horizon League teams).

Anonymous said...

If you look at Minnesota and Michigan in a vacuum, then neither team deserves a bid to the Big Dance. However, due to the fact that there are not very many strong mid-majors this season (e.g. Missouri Valley Conf) and other bubble teams bent on playing their way out, we have to keep talking about Wolverines and Gophers.

Scott M said...

If the Marq/Cincy loser also loses their last game as well as their 1st game in the Big East Tourney would that team be in trouble?

Dan said...

@Scott - Probably, but who knows. If the bubble keeps backing up at the current pace, maybe not. Keep in mind the first round BET game for either/both will be South Florida/Rutgers/DePaul. A loss to any of those would be something that none of those teams has ALL YEAR LONG: a bad loss.

Both Marq and Cinci have 0 bad losses but a small number of good ones, which is the reason they're in but not by a ton of margin to begin with.

If we figure the winner is in, the loser probably needs to win either Saturday (to get to 10-8 in the BE) or in the first game of the tournament (to avoid a bad loss) to secure a spot.

DJ Drummond said...

All I know is, I'm a Baylor alum (class of 83) and I can't say they belong in the Dance. They just don't seem to want it enough, and as bad as I'd feel if they missed the Tournament, I'd hate even more to be one and done again this year like they did in 2009.

Anonymous said...

"Butler has 9 (of which 5 are to Horizon League teams)."

I've been a Butler fan my entire life and can't see them getting an at-large bid.

Some of their bad losses notwithstanding, a loss, even in the HL chammpionship game, would mean they either lost to UWM for the thrid time this season or that UWM lost in the semis and Butler lost the championship game on its home floor. I think that either of those scenarios spells doom for their at-large hopes.

AG said...

Colorado has gone from a pick'em @ Iowa State to +1.5 in the past few hours.

Not looking good for the Buffs.

amiezin said...

Why isn't maryland getting any hope? Hopefully, they will be a 9-7 team in the ACC at the end of the week. Do they need to win 2 ACC tourney games as well?

Bill said...

ACC: How many teams can they get into the tournament if BC, VTech, Clemson and Maryland end in a tie for 4th place at 9-7 (BC would get the 4 seed on tiebreakers)?

Michael said...

@Will

You maybe the only person in the world that thinks Minnesota is playing better basketball and is more deserving of a tournament bid over Michigan. End of story

Dan said...

ACC gets 4 teams into the tournament, and MAYBE a 5th if everything falls correctly. VT destroys Clemson, BC doesn't trip on Wake, and VT clobbers Wake in the first round, and the rest of the bubble backs up. If the rest of the bubble doesn't back up, BC-VT in the ACC-quarters could be a play in game.

Other then Clemson beating Duke and then making a run in the ACC tourny to the finals, the at large hopes of the rest of the league are dead. Unless every bubble teams loses tonight, Thurs, Fri, Sat and all of next week. Which I guess isn't out of the question.

Howard Salwasser said...

Stop. This. Nonsense. About. Minnesota.

In fact I'll stop all this by saying this. Minnesota as currently constituted will not be getting ANY postseason bid. I should know this because everyone here in the Twin Cities is resigned to missing the NCAA's. We have no point guards, the guards we do have(as well as the frontcourt) are inconsistent, we have no leadership outside of Hoffarber, we have Mbawke playing with a cloud of suspicion over him. IOW, if you're the NIT, would you invite the Gophers?

So please, please, stop all this nonsense.

Michael said...

@Howard Salwasser

Agree about Minnesota. Not trying to say Michigan is this awesome team by any stretch but if you want to say another team is more deserving go ahead, but Minnesota shouldn't be a team that comes up.

minnesota has 3 good wins,not trying to take those away, but that was a long time ago and the team as they stand now is completly different.

Chris in NC said...

@Howard:

So sorry about your team. Been there when mine has lost its best players and fallen like a rock. It sucks for a fan big time because you watch them lose to teams they would crush at full strength and there's nothing you can do.

As for the NIT or that other tournament for those not invited to the NIT, yeah, I think Minnesota can get a bit to that. Maybe they can play against Michigan, Alabama or Baylor! :)

Chris in NC said...

TO those who think MSU and Michigan are a win and in, no way. Michigan needs to beat MSU and take at least 2 in the Big Ten Tourney.

Right now Michigan State has to play their way back in. Beating Iowa and Michigan might do that but might not. It may take a win in the BTT after taking Iowa/Michigan games. Lose to Iowa or Michigan and they probably have to win the BTT

Marty said...

@Will..Stop hating. Michigan has road wins @MSU(42), @PSU(59), @Clemson(68),and @Minnesota(60). Home wins against Harvard(54),Oakland(58), PSU(59). This gives Michigan 6 wins over the RPI top 60 and thats not including the road win @ Clemson(68)which is a good win. So Saying Michigan has no good wins is laughably dishonest. Overtime loss @Kansas and fluke last second bank shot against Wisconsin, played OSU to the wire twice.

Marty said...

I challenge anyone to show me another bubble team besides Michigan with 3 road wins over the RPI top 60. 4 road wins over the rpi top 68.

Marty said...

Edit: OT loss to Kansas was @home.

Ross said...

-Chris

There is no way Michigan needs to beat MSU and win 2 games in the tournament to make the NCAA.

If they beat MSU, they'll like be in the 4/5 game of the BTT. That means they would end the season needing to beat MSU, Illinois, and then OSU. The bubble is very weak this year, and there is no way Michigan needs to do more than beat MSU and win its first tournament game.

AG said...

Chris, MSU is in with a win vs. Iowa tonight. Get over it. Ok maybe if they lose to Michigan they have to *not lose* to Indiana or Iowa again in the Big Ten Tournament but that's about it.

In any case, Colorado's going down @ Iowa State tonight so the bubble should be getting less crowded by the end of the night.

Anonymous said...

There are teams solidly in the tournament without road wins as good as Michigan's.

Missouri has only won two road games all year, Oregon and Iowa State. They have one good win on a neutral floor, Illinois.

mag900 said...

"I challenge anyone to show me another bubble team besides Michigan with 3 road wins over the RPI top 60. 4 road wins over the rpi top 68."

those impressive road wins were mich st, minnesota, penn st and clemson. so you are bragging that michigan has beaten 3 nit teams and mich st on the road? bfd. michigan also has only beaten 1 ncaat team all year -- #42 mich st.

regarding your challenge, memphis has beaten on the road #31 UAB, #39 so miss and #54 ucf. that wasn't much of a challenge.

Bracketology 101 said...

If the Marquette-Concinnati winner loses its last regular season and then loses in the first round of the BET, they'd probably get squeezed out. Marquette's not going to get in with 14 losses and Cincinnati would have lost four in row down the stretch.

Maryland is 1-9 against the Top 50. They also got swept by Virginia Tech and BC. They have to make the ACC final to have a realistic chance at an at-large.

If Michigan wins its next two games, we don't think they'll get left out.

Will said...

The difference, AG, is that those teams have quality wins.

AG said...

Whatever. I've already made it clear I don't consider Texas in February or March a quality win, or UNC with Larry Drew as starting point guard.

Sims said...

i am telling you guys that clemson will make the tourney if they beat vt and win 1 game in the acc tourney.

last 4 in are:

bc, michigan, alabama, clemson

1st 4 out are:

colorado st, colorado(loss tonite), penn st, memphis

Will said...

Then you're crazy.

Anonymous said...

I know they had an awful second half against Florida, but how deep of a hole is bama in? Do they have to win the conference tournament now or can they beat uga and win 2 in the confernce tourney and feel safe?

Andrew EC said...

Sims: I'm with you on Clemson, but Alabama? Did you see them last night? Not a chance.

Will said...

FSU showed up tonight...

edgeinducedcohesion said...

And Maryland didn't--losing to Miami is not how you keep up that #16 Kenpom rating (snickers). I imagine that Maryland's got to be worried about that home game in the NIT now.

Will said...

Too bad... UNC wins again

Andrew EC said...

Gosh, GW looked pretty good against URI tonight. Maybe they deserve to be on the 12 line....

Chase said...

Memphis loses by double digits on the road to a shitty East Carolina team.

And SHOCKER, Colorado down 10 with 6 minutes left to Iowa State.

Anonymous said...

Can we just agree that Maryland is not very good? They never were this year, but Gary had convinced some that they had a chance to be.

Anonymous said...

Centenary finally won last week; maybe we can consider them on the bubble now too.

Will said...

No way 10-6 in the ACC with a win over Duke gets left out of this bubble. Talking about FSU and VT

Chris said...

How thrilled must fans of George Mason and Old Dominion be? Their resumes are pretty mediocre but this year, they're nowhere near the bubble. Same probably goes for St. Mary's and Utah State - I can't imagine either team gets in most years without winning their conference, but this year I think both are safe.

AG said...

UAB is in, Colorado and Memphis are out.

MSU clinches a bid.

Chris in NC said...

@AG: "Chris, MSU is in with a win vs. Iowa tonight. Get over it."


There's really nothing for me to get over. I don't care if they get in or not. But winning against the last place team doesn't improve your position. If they lose to Michigan they are probably out. Lose to Michigan and the first round of the BTT and they're definitely out. Beat Michigan and lose first round BTT and they sweat.

@Ross:
"There is no way Michigan needs to beat MSU and win 2 games in the tournament to make the NCAA. "

If they beat MSU they send MSU to the NIT (which would make a Wolverine fan's season). However,without a marquee win, I think they need to beat a top 3 B10 to get in. I could be wrong, it happens more than enough, but that's my view and I'm sticking to it.

Anonymous said...

GMU and ODU are locks. Heck, the ways things are going VCU may return to the bubble dicussion if they make a run to the CAA finals (not likely, but possible).

I guess the ACC "grind" (snicker) was just too much for Maryland.

Chris in NC said...

I'm not trying to bash MSU or UM. Sparty is hurting this season for a reason that I can't figure. No bounces are going their way lately. But they're usually a great team and Izzo, love him or hate him, is a great coach.

As for Michigan, what can you say? This is a team that was supposed to be second to last or last in the B10. They were supposed to be spending spring break at the beach. At WORST they are now spending it in the NIT with home games. At best, this team, whose heart consists of a freshman and a sophomore could be going dancing over spring break. It is ASTOUNDING that a team that young can even be discussed about a bubble shot.

I just think that those 2 have more work to do to get in. That's it.

Anonymous said...

UAB's RPI now up to 28 after winning at Southern Miss.

UAB now has an RPI Top 50 win (maybe 2 more by later tonight depending on other results).

Tonight's win also guaranteed UAB at least a share of the CUSA title.

UAB may not be a lock, but they're close to that point now.

Anonymous said...

With how awful this bubble is (Memphis, Dayton, Maryland, Colorado, Marquette all lose so far tonight to mostly god awful teams and its still early) and Cincys big road victory over Marquette - is it safe to say they are now a LOCK even if they lose to Georgetown and their first tourny game? Such a scenario would leave them 23-9 and 10-8 in the Big East.

AG said...

Just by chance, Chris, what do you think of the ACC bubble?

Bracketology 101 said...

Huge road win for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are a lock.

Chris said...

"UAB now has an RPI Top 50 win (maybe 2 more by later tonight depending on other results)."

I never understood this. From our perspective, it's convenient and instructive to categorize RPI wins as top 50. From the perspective of the committee, I'm certain that they are able to see the nuances of each RPI win.

I don't think they're going to see 3 top-50 wins instead of 1 so much as they're going to see #40, #49, and #49 instead of #40, #51, and #51. Of course, there is no real difference between beating the #49 RPI team and beating the #51 RPI team, and I think the committee understands that.

All that said, UAB is definitely the big winner of the night - a quality road win plus more implosions elsewhere on the bubble.

Anonymous said...

I would agree that the RPI Top 50 wins issue seems overplayed.

However, this area seems to be the lone area consistently mentioned as a weakness on UAB's resume.

After tonight, it can no longer be said that UAB has no Top 50 wins... because they now have 1 (and possibly more).

Chase said...

Minnesota losing to Northwestern, I think officially puts them out unless they get to the B10 finals. Also helps Penn State - a little, assures they won't get Ohio State in the B10 tournament.

Anonymous said...

Uconn and nova are in all likelihood going to finish 9-9 in the Big East. How are they Possibly ranked 16th and 19th in the country and receiving such high seeds?

Chris said...

Chase: Out unless they get to the Big Ten finals? They're 6-11!

Minnesota needs the automatic bid. They probably needed it before this loss. They definitely need it now.

Bracketology 101 said...

Who is this Minnesota you speak of? Never heard of them.

Anonymous said...

Chris in NC, i agree completely with what you said about Michigan but i have to point out they arent apending spring break at the beach or in a tournament but preparing for MSU. We (UM) are on spring break this week. Therefore they have a week with no classes or distractions to prepare for MSU.

Anonymous said...

If Clemson loses are they officially done?

RoberRousseau said...

What is the highest seed UGA can get after this win tonight, and hopefully another on saturday

Chase said...

Here's what I have right now as of this second. BYU loss = Duke to the #1 line.

The 1's - Ohio State, Pitt, Kansas, BYU
The 2's - Duke, Purdue, Notre Dame, Texas
The 3's - Syracuse, Wisconsin, St Johns, San Diego State
The 4's - Georgetown, Louisville, Florida, North Carolina
The 5's - UConn, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Xavier
The 6's - WVU, Villanova, UCLA, Kansas State,
The 7's - Temple, George Mason, Arizona, Missouri
The 8's - Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Old Dominion, UNLV
The 9's - Utah State, Illinois, Florida State, Georgia
The 10's - Michigan State, Washington, Tennessee, Richmond
The 11's - Gonzaga, Butler, Marquette, Boston College
The 12's - Missouri State, St Mary's, Michigan, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech
The 13's - Southern Miss, Belmont, Coastal Carolina, Harvard
The 14's - Fairfield, Oakland, College of Charleston, Kent State
The 15's - Muray State, Long Beach State, Bucknell, Vermont
The 16's - Northern Colorado, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Bethune-Cookman

Last 4 in: Michigan, Colorado State, UAB, Virginia Tech
Last 4 out: Alabama, Penn State, Washington State, Clemson
Next 4 out: Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Wichita State

Others Considered: Memphis, Minnesota, USC, New Mexico, Duquesne, VCU

I threw up looking at those 4 teams on my 1st out list. Anything you guys see?

Bracketology 101 said...

Clemson's not done, but they'll need to beat Virginia Tech this weekend and get to the ACC semis to have a legitimate chance at an at-large.

Anonymous said...

BYU down big. How far can they fall with the news of the suspension combined with a poor showing / loss?

Jake said...

Assuming Cinci gets a win at home against a Wright-less Georgetown in the season finally, how high can they go seed-wise if they get a win in the Big East Tournament?

If UConn and Nova's struggles continue into the tournament, could they be lower that the Bearcats despite both beating them?

Anonymous said...

I'd drop Penn State to the "others considered" line or swap them with Nebraska at the very least.

Better dust off New Mexico's resume and take a look.

Chase said...

Nova can fall to maybe a 7 seed at worse. UConn should beat Notre Dame. They're no less than a 6 if they lose both.

BYU loss = at best a 2 seed. Winner of MVC tournament = 2 seed. Loser a 3 or maybe a 4.

Anonymous said...

If Michigan beats MSU, but loses to Illinois in the 4/5 game do they still have a chance?

Howard Salwasser said...

Not related to bracketology in any way, shape, or form, but if Jimmer Fredette continues to struggle, does this reopen the National player of the year race to others?

Chris in NC said...

@anonymous at 10:34: Cool enjoy the break. I didn't realize y'all took spring break so early. My kids are elementary and middle school and they don't get out until late April. Silly me assumed that most places did that too.
But you get my point, as a Wolverine, you'd agree that given the expectations coming in, that any game after the BTT is gravy for this team who I will say has absolutely no quit in them. I don't know how many pints of blood Novak has left on the floor this season but I have a feeling the Red Cross is giving him blood and not the other way around... They are a very scrappy group of youngsters coached up by a very classy and excellent coach. They may make you cringe some this year but get ready to kill some teams next year and beyond. Good Grief, Hardaway is a freshman. Wow. This team has so much upside it's crazy.

Chris in NC said...

Anonymous at 11:31: Beat MSU and lose the 1st round, if I had to guess, I'd have to say no. They really need at least one BTT win. I think 2 but others disagree. It's that lack of a top tier win that kills them. That lucky shot by Wisconsin makes all the difference. An inch in any direction and Michigan is on the inside of that bubble sitting pretty. Painful yes, but still, given this teams youth, it's amazing we're talking even about it.

Anonymous said...

Does new Mexico have a chance now assuming they don't blow their 20 point lead

Anonymous said...

Chris in NC, as a Wolverine, I would be ecstatic for this team to make the tournament this year, but whether we do or not, the fact that this team is even being discussed as a bubble team at this point is incredible. Going into the season, I was expecting the best we could hope for would be the NIT and after the 1-6 start to Big Ten play, even that didn't seem likely.

Zach Novak may not be the highest scoring player on our team, but he is a beast and a great leader. With how this team is playing following their 1-6 start to Big Ten play and the fact that everyone returns next year, this team has the potential to be very good next year and in the years to follow. So even if we don't make the NCAA tourney this year (which I tend to agree beating MSU and Illinois would give us a fairly good chance on the bubble and beating MSU, Illinois and OSU would put us in)its incredible how far this team has come and this has definitely been an exciting (and often frustrating) team to watch this year.

mag900 said...

i'll tell you who is the most upset over byu kicking davies off the team for sleeping with his girlfriend -- mitt romney. goodbye presidential bid now that his silly religion has been exposed for what it is. do we really want someone in the oval office who vows not to drink coffee or swear?

Bracketology 101 said...

No swearing, coffee, or sex? Brandon Davies couldn't be a bracketologist either.

Anonymous said...

At this stage, is there ANYWAY that Ohio State, Kansas, PItt, and Duke are not the four #1 seeds?

Is there anyway Ohio State is not the overall 1 seed, barring Pitt winning the Big East Tourny?

Bracketology 101 said...

Quick hits:

New Mexico is back in the mix, but they'll have to make the MWC final to have any shot at an at-large.

If Georgia wins this weekend, they'll be a low 8/high 9 on Monday.

The lowest Villanova will drop is a 7. The lowest UConn will drop is a 6.

In all likelihood, Michigan is going to need two more wins to get in. A sweep of Michigan State is nice, but they need one more quality win to make their resume stand out over some other big conference bubble teams. Without that 4/5 game win, the highlight of Michigan's resume would be two wins over a team barely in the bracket.

It's going to be very interesting to see what the committee does with BYU seed-wise in the wake of Davies' dismissal. Their chance at a 1 seed is obviously gone, and if they were to lose in the MWC semis, they're probably looking at a 3. A trip to the final would likely put them on the 2 line. Let's see how they do this weekend against Wyoming first...

Anonymous said...

What is Marquette's position relative to the bubble?

Dan said...

Will you still here??? How bout dem Gophers! They definitely deserve a bid!

Go Wildcats!

Bracketology 101 said...

UAB is looking good for a bid now with their win over Southern Miss and an outright C-USA title on the horizon. This also opens up the doors a little more for the possibility of 2 C-USA bids should the Blazers go down in the conference tourney.

Steve said...

While I do not agree with BYU's code of conduct, I have to admire a school that sticks to their principles. How many schools have the courage to suspend of of their starters when the chance of a Championship is so close.

Other schools have let kids play that have committed felonies or blatantly broken NCAA rules. While I do not agree with their code, I have to respect the fact that they stand up for their beliefs.

AG said...

I have to agree. In a year where LaceDarius Dunn and Tre'Von Willis got to play with even with charges pending, that BYU self-immolated because of something as innocuous as that goes against the conventional thinking nowadays that a dirty program is better than an irrelevant program.

Bruce Pearl are you paying attention?

Will said...

I disagree with the committee's position of taking bids away from teams based on teams losing players. If you are going solely based on resume(and if richmond is in, we're going by resume), then it's idiotic to use the argument "Minnesota is a worse team without their point guards", because strength of team has no weight in the argument. Minnesota, on paper, deserves a bid more than michigan.

Anonymous said...

Will, why would they take a Minnesota team that has lost 8 of its last 9 since losing Nolen? The team that beat UNC, WVU and Purdue is not the same Minnesota team that would be playing in the tournament. Minnesota is done. Unless they win the BTT which isnt going to happen. They will likely face NU in the 8/9 game and will either lose then or to OSU the next day. Without Al Nolen this team is worthless and doesnt even deserve an NIT bid let alone a bid to the NCAA tourney. Regardless of whether Michigan is worthy or not, Minnesota is NOT going dancing. Just give it up man. Maybe next year.

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